Hi Simon, there are three upcoming special elections for the House. I understand that one is safely Blue. Do you recommend any special Hopium effort in the two House districts that are rather Red? Or is that an exercise in futility?
– New York's 26th Congressional District on April 30, 2024. (Replacing Brian Higgins, D)
– California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. (Replacing Kevin McCarthy, R)
– Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. (Replacing Bill Johnson, R)
I was coming to ask just this question - I've heard this question within organizations that I am working with about CA20 and OH6 - do we have a shot at winning or just a shot at overperformance?
You can also Text President Biden. He listed the number and wrote ‘text me’ on Threads. I have texted him and expressed my gratitude for his Leadership.
Simon, Lucas Kunce in Missouri, running against Sen. Josh Hawley has been within the margin of error, sometimes within one point, for 6 months. Hawley's approval rating is the lowest of any Senate Republican up in '24. Am I right or wrong?
The message you are sending in states like Missouri is forget it, don't even try, but please send $5 to a bigger state that matters. Kunce is running the best campaign since fellow veteran Jason Kander came up short by under 3 points. Kunce breaks fundraising records every quarter. Just how much Hopium do we have to smoke, how much money do we have to raise, to get noticed inside the Beltway?
We can all play poll games, but how about the results at the polls, the real polls, in Missouri approving medicaid expansion and rejecting so-called "right to work for less" laws. And, see below, Jason Kander came within 3 points of Roy Blunt who was far more popular than Hawley.
Serious question: if he’s already breaking fundraising records, then what is he going to do with even more money that’s different from all the previous failed campaigns to take down red-state senators?
Hawley has a LOT more baggage than Roy Blunt ever could have dreamed.
It sounds like your plan is to permanently concede whenever a Republican is elected to the US Senate. Lucas Kunce's plan is to capitalize on his record of military service and campaign on populist economics and strong support for organized labor in a state that has rejected right to work for less three times at the ballot box.
Yeah I've been following this race. I'm originally from Missouri. It seems like setting money/time on fire to try and win a statewide race in Missouri. Is worth pursuing?
I let the lawyers with their legalese deal with Trump's crimes. The amount of media coverage trying to explain the intricacies of these cases is beyond the comprehension of the majority of voters. He's a criminal and that's all that matters to me.
I learned after the Mueller debacle to let it all go and focus on getting Trump and others out of office. Thanks for the tip about postcards. Will look into it. My penmanship isn't as good as it use to be but it's still legible.
Writing an "Atta boy Joe!" is a simple and effective political act that feels very good after you do it. I left a message of appreciation and support for President Biden at WhiteHouse.gov a week or so ago and I will be writing postcards expressing our enthusiasm and support for his election with my grandkids this weekend.
I was just thinking about doing the same. When I think about the patriotism that President Biden has shown in taking in this job at this time…I’m beyond grateful.
Disturbing if Hogan wins the Senate in Maryland. He’s good at appearing as a moderate, but he’s not. I will never forgive him for sending the racists after the medical officer in Montgomery County Maryland where I lived. Dr. Gayles, a physician with a specialty in Public Health wanted to keep the schools closed an extra month during the pandemic. Hogan encouraged the right wing science deniers to go after Dr. Gayles in a disgusting display of racism and anti-science. They actually went ahead and sued Dr. Gayles with Hogan’s support. The racist attacks were absolutely vile, and Hogan did nothing.
If you are going to beat Larry Hogan don't rely on well-meaning but clueless DC insiders who care more about protecting incumbents instead of electing Democrats.
1. not only 435 members of Congress, but don't forget Trump's own oleaginous, obsequious VP.
2. also note the abuse of the pardon power (Stone, Flynn, Manafort, Pirro's husband).
3. do you want to live in a country where Trump's friends get benefits, Trump's enemies get attacked, and past servility is so quickly forgotten? And where Trump's modeled behavior degrades American society because it's replicated by innumerable petty tyrants at lower levels everywhere, so life for normal people becomes eating a constant buffet of s**t sandwiches served by mini-Trump bullies?
4. Do you want to live in a country where your earned Social Security is considered an "entitlement" that Trump and his party has promised to drastically reduce – postponing or eliminating your ability to retire, and pushing millions of senior citizens into poverty?
For some reason I am unable to reply directly to the thread regarding the special elections for CA-20 and OH-6. Based on the Cook Political Report elections rating, the answer would be, "No.". https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
With thanks to a young 20-ish YO activist I’ve started to use the following judicially accurate description of the presumptive Republican nominee:“fraudster” and “pervert”. After a flash of anger at certain Supremes I’m putting my head back down, redoubling my efforts and focusing on the ballot box. Thanks a million to Simon for his wisdom and urging us onward with his ultra good advice. ❤️🤍💙
So many of us have worked hard for years on a variety of critical issues from preserving abortion rights, civil rights, climate change, work place health and safety, and many others. However, if Trump and the GOP win all of our efforts and progress will go out the window. So its crucial that we prioritize and unite our efforts to ensure that Biden and the Dems win in November.
Damn right Simon! We don’t need a conviction to label Trump as a criminal. Also I think his empire crumbling is more terrifying to Trump than going to jail. And he’s losing badly on the financial front. I’m going to write a postcard to Biden this weekend! I can’t think of any leader since FDR who has to deal with as many simultaneous crises and we are so lucky to have Biden as our president in these crazy times. Whatever happens in November, history will remember Biden as someone who did their best and achieved a lot in choppy waters while McConnell and Trump will only be remembered for their attempts to dismantle our democracy.
A $20.2 Billion bill hammered out by Republicans and Democrats strengthening the Southern border added:
• 1,500 border agents,
• 100 fentanyl detection machines,
• 100 backlog-reducing immigration judges,
• 4,300 asylum officers,
• immigrant visas, and
• border closure authority when overwhelmed.
Donald Trump directed House Republicans
to kill this bipartisan bill.
Share
😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠😩😫😨😱😖😭😡🤬😤🤯😢😠
and now...back to work.
Hi Simon, there are three upcoming special elections for the House. I understand that one is safely Blue. Do you recommend any special Hopium effort in the two House districts that are rather Red? Or is that an exercise in futility?
– New York's 26th Congressional District on April 30, 2024. (Replacing Brian Higgins, D)
– California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. (Replacing Kevin McCarthy, R)
– Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. (Replacing Bill Johnson, R)
I was coming to ask just this question - I've heard this question within organizations that I am working with about CA20 and OH6 - do we have a shot at winning or just a shot at overperformance?
You can also Text President Biden. He listed the number and wrote ‘text me’ on Threads. I have texted him and expressed my gratitude for his Leadership.
Do you have that number handy?
POTUS is on Threads. The number is posted there as (302)404-0880. You can also follow him on Threads 💙
Thanks!
You’re welcome!
WhiteHouse.gov is also displaying a "text me" click box this morning. Love it!
Thank you for this tip! Done!
Awesome!!
Simon, Lucas Kunce in Missouri, running against Sen. Josh Hawley has been within the margin of error, sometimes within one point, for 6 months. Hawley's approval rating is the lowest of any Senate Republican up in '24. Am I right or wrong?
The message you are sending in states like Missouri is forget it, don't even try, but please send $5 to a bigger state that matters. Kunce is running the best campaign since fellow veteran Jason Kander came up short by under 3 points. Kunce breaks fundraising records every quarter. Just how much Hopium do we have to smoke, how much money do we have to raise, to get noticed inside the Beltway?
I've heard him interviewed several times. He is impressive.
The only large sample poll in Missouri on 538 has Hawley ahead outside margin of error. I am open to seeing these polls you cite.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/column/joe-holleman/new-poll-touts-lucas-kunce-s-chance-of-upsetting-josh-hawley/article_87b5eb34-7e4d-11ee-a379-4bf7e2026f39.html
ALSO there are more recent Morning Consult polls but they are paywalled.
AND there is plenty of polling showing Hawley's poor approval rating, lower than Cruz, lower than Rick Scott.
We can all play poll games, but how about the results at the polls, the real polls, in Missouri approving medicaid expansion and rejecting so-called "right to work for less" laws. And, see below, Jason Kander came within 3 points of Roy Blunt who was far more popular than Hawley.
Serious question: if he’s already breaking fundraising records, then what is he going to do with even more money that’s different from all the previous failed campaigns to take down red-state senators?
Hopium is hope with a plan. What’s the plan?
"all of the previous campaigns to take down red-state Senators" ?? -- the last election in Missouri with an incumbent Republican Senator was 2016 and the results were Roy Blunt (R) 49.2%, Jason Kander (D) 46.4%https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/missouri-senate-blunt-kander
Hawley has a LOT more baggage than Roy Blunt ever could have dreamed.
It sounds like your plan is to permanently concede whenever a Republican is elected to the US Senate. Lucas Kunce's plan is to capitalize on his record of military service and campaign on populist economics and strong support for organized labor in a state that has rejected right to work for less three times at the ballot box.
Yeah I've been following this race. I'm originally from Missouri. It seems like setting money/time on fire to try and win a statewide race in Missouri. Is worth pursuing?
I let the lawyers with their legalese deal with Trump's crimes. The amount of media coverage trying to explain the intricacies of these cases is beyond the comprehension of the majority of voters. He's a criminal and that's all that matters to me.
I learned after the Mueller debacle to let it all go and focus on getting Trump and others out of office. Thanks for the tip about postcards. Will look into it. My penmanship isn't as good as it use to be but it's still legible.
Look for my response below. 👇
Writing an "Atta boy Joe!" is a simple and effective political act that feels very good after you do it. I left a message of appreciation and support for President Biden at WhiteHouse.gov a week or so ago and I will be writing postcards expressing our enthusiasm and support for his election with my grandkids this weekend.
I texted him a few weeks ago and told him to keep up the good work. It felt good!
I was just thinking about doing the same. When I think about the patriotism that President Biden has shown in taking in this job at this time…I’m beyond grateful.
Disturbing if Hogan wins the Senate in Maryland. He’s good at appearing as a moderate, but he’s not. I will never forgive him for sending the racists after the medical officer in Montgomery County Maryland where I lived. Dr. Gayles, a physician with a specialty in Public Health wanted to keep the schools closed an extra month during the pandemic. Hogan encouraged the right wing science deniers to go after Dr. Gayles in a disgusting display of racism and anti-science. They actually went ahead and sued Dr. Gayles with Hogan’s support. The racist attacks were absolutely vile, and Hogan did nothing.
I didn't realize Hogan was behind that! It was absolutely disgraceful the way those goons hounded that poor man out of office!
https://casetext.com/case/beahn-v-gayles
If you are going to beat Larry Hogan don't rely on well-meaning but clueless DC insiders who care more about protecting incumbents instead of electing Democrats.
Can you give some examples?
Three points for your consideration:
1. not only 435 members of Congress, but don't forget Trump's own oleaginous, obsequious VP.
2. also note the abuse of the pardon power (Stone, Flynn, Manafort, Pirro's husband).
3. do you want to live in a country where Trump's friends get benefits, Trump's enemies get attacked, and past servility is so quickly forgotten? And where Trump's modeled behavior degrades American society because it's replicated by innumerable petty tyrants at lower levels everywhere, so life for normal people becomes eating a constant buffet of s**t sandwiches served by mini-Trump bullies?
Well said, Frank. Those are all my fears.
Another point, if I may:
4. Do you want to live in a country where your earned Social Security is considered an "entitlement" that Trump and his party has promised to drastically reduce – postponing or eliminating your ability to retire, and pushing millions of senior citizens into poverty?
For some reason I am unable to reply directly to the thread regarding the special elections for CA-20 and OH-6. Based on the Cook Political Report elections rating, the answer would be, "No.". https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
We need t-shirts that say "Simon says Do More, Worry Less."
Oh Mary, that is such a great idea!! Then a little Hopium symbol. He makes me feel better and more prepared everyday.
Regarding polling. Do with the following information as you will. 538 has ranked the "best" polling organizations. Their criteria includes, historically accuracy, transparency and bias. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/538-rates-best-pollsters-america-106686388
538's top 10 are as follows. 1. NYT/ Sienna College; 2. ABC News/ WaPo; 3. Marquette Univ. Las School; 4. YouGov; 5. Monmouth Univ Polling Inst.; 6. Suffolk Univ.; 7. Marist College; 8. Emerson College; 9. Mass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion; 10. Data Orbital.
With thanks to a young 20-ish YO activist I’ve started to use the following judicially accurate description of the presumptive Republican nominee:“fraudster” and “pervert”. After a flash of anger at certain Supremes I’m putting my head back down, redoubling my efforts and focusing on the ballot box. Thanks a million to Simon for his wisdom and urging us onward with his ultra good advice. ❤️🤍💙
Me too, I chose ‘rapist and fraudster’. I think Simon would approve of our choices.
Your handwriting will be just what that voter needs to be reminded to register and vote. 📝✍️❤️✌🏻
I bought postcards off of Etsy yesterday with a Vote theme from Simons link. I’ll be writing them and donating!!
We talk a lot about the economy, and also about issues important to women voters. I think we have an opportunity to bring those together in a meaningful way: Axios reports the "she-economy" is booming https://www.axios.com/2024/02/28/goldilocks-she-conomy-booming-taylor-beyonce-barbie
So many of us have worked hard for years on a variety of critical issues from preserving abortion rights, civil rights, climate change, work place health and safety, and many others. However, if Trump and the GOP win all of our efforts and progress will go out the window. So its crucial that we prioritize and unite our efforts to ensure that Biden and the Dems win in November.
Damn right Simon! We don’t need a conviction to label Trump as a criminal. Also I think his empire crumbling is more terrifying to Trump than going to jail. And he’s losing badly on the financial front. I’m going to write a postcard to Biden this weekend! I can’t think of any leader since FDR who has to deal with as many simultaneous crises and we are so lucky to have Biden as our president in these crazy times. Whatever happens in November, history will remember Biden as someone who did their best and achieved a lot in choppy waters while McConnell and Trump will only be remembered for their attempts to dismantle our democracy.