Going canvassing in Maine this weekend to get out the vote against Prop 1, which would make absentee voting much, much harder. Volunteers are being given the opportunity to hear both Janet Mills on Saturday and Graham Platnner on Sunday. Should be interesting.
Is the packaging all that sneaky? Whenever Republicans talk about Voter ID or anything to do with voting, we *know* they're trying to suppress the vote of anyone likely to vote Democratic, e.g., young people, Black people, unmarried women . . .
Fair point, for sure. I've certainly known from the start that Voter ID laws were just another tool in the voter suppression toolkit, pushed by conservative groups like ALEC (I think that's the one). It's always been a "solution" in search of a problem, since the incidents of actual voter fraud where someone shows up pretending to be someone else were very low. But I think maybe there are some "swing" voters that see a Voter ID requirement as reasonable in their view, but would not want to make absentee voting so much more difficult - e.g. make it harder for their elderly parent to vote. So describing Prop. 1 as a Voter ID bill when it's really geared toward making absentee voting much harder is in my view sneaky.
Called both OH senators to urge them to vote to end global tariffs. Both rely on voice mail greetings. Moreno’s vm greeting has been the same for months “sorry we can’t take your call; leave your name / number we’ll call you back.” I have never received a return call.
Yes, it's been so frustrating. I've called multiple times as well and have gotten no response from either Senator. We really need to get Sherrod Brown back in the Senate ASAP!
You're right, Steve, so I keep on calling. I'm actually just about a year away from retiring, so I'll be "sharing my thoughts" with my unresponsive Senators with greater frequently once I have a bit more time on my hands!
I’m not sure what the OH senators’ office practices are re: tracking input on issues. When I email, I receive a response from Sen Husted that is somewhat related to my topics; Sen Moreno’s email response is boiler plate - thank you for writing!! It’s important for me to hear from constituents!! This response is received within a couple of hours.
I've been thinking about this dichotomy between the 2 parties . Dems are the party of AmeriCAN while the Republicans are the party of AmeriCANT. I think a simple message like that could be the unifying umbrella message that gives candidates the ability to tell potential voters what they CAN do as their representative and that are tailored to their district's wants and needs. While using the framing of all the things their Republican oppontant CAN'T do as their representative. Put another way it's,
Dems = Can/GOP = Can't.
I know which party I'd want to align myself with, I bet you do, too! 😉
Dems tried this a while ago, maybe around Hillary's campaign. IIRC it's how we got the logo of a D with a circle in it. It was supposed to evoke putting a car in Drive. The same idea was why Hillary's campaign slogan was the rather forgettalbe "Forward Together".
It's a fine logo, but I don't think the D brand is currently strong enough to carry the message that we are for prosperity progress for everyone.
However, too many Dems have been trading on this for decades -- as long as the Republicans have been so awful that voting for the Democratic candidate was a no-brainer. IMO the last Republicans worth voting for were Charlie Baker in my state (MA) and Larry Hogan in MD. I doubt either one could win a Republican primary now.
Look at how the onset of Trump II shocked the Dem congressional leadership into silence. It shouldn't have. By 2024 they *knew* what Trump was about. They'd seen 1/6/2021. They knew how badly elections have been corrupted by Citizens United. Also look at how the Dems taking the lead now are the governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state -- those who hold office *outside* the Beltway and are more closely connected to voters in the states.
Support Democratic candidates for sure, but "Won't Get Fooled Again" is a good mantra for the foreseeable future.
Please explain the word “overperforming,” when speaking of elections. All these candidates did was win their election. That is not “overdoing” that is called winning. In other words they performed. But they didn’t OVERperform!
Peggy, this terminology is commonly used in politics. What it means in this case is that our candidates have been regularly overperforming our 2024 performance in theirs election by double digits, signifying a structural shift in the electorate. So overperformance on a given baseline is good, a sign of our strength and their weakness.
I guess it is a trend line. So, if a Democratic candidate does better than the Democratic candidate in the same district in the previous cycle, or perhaps even if the Democratic candidate does better than Harris did in the district, that would be "over performing".
So, in that lexicon, one could over perform and actually lose. I canvassed for Josh Weil in CD 6 in Florida, for example, who I think lost by ~10 points. But in that district in the previous cycle, the Democratic candidate had lost by ~30 points.
And as Simon points out, this is important. Back in the 2000s, thanks to Howard Dean and others, the Dems pushed for a "50-state strategy." This meant not giving up on deep-red districts and states; it was crucial to offer Democratic alternatives to voters in those (in effect) one-party states. A Dem candidate might get only 40% of the vote but that was better than Dems getting 0% because there was no Democrat running. Unfortunately that fell by the wayside after Obama was elected the first time. Then came the Citizens United decision, the Tea Party election, and general conservative freakout that voters had actually elected a Black man to the presidency.
I think all of that is right. I have also heard (I'm not aware of statistics to back it up, but I think it was David Pepper I heard it from, and also it seems to likely be true) that running candidates in red districts who lose still has the effect of bumping up statewide totals maybe 1-2%. So, you might lose several red districts, but make your chances are winning a statewide race better.
I think it also is a way to identify new talent. If Anderson Clayton didn't have money to work with, we wouldn't have found her. If we didn't have people running and winning in red areas at least sometime, we will never learn how to talk to voters who are not, at least now, naturally in our base. It's a farm system for political talent.
Tester in Montana comes to mind. Andy Beshear is another. Democrats who are proven winners in red states. It is possible, but we won't learn and won't find people who can figure it out unless we give people a chance.
The fact that we abandoned 50 states, run everywhere, seem to me, as an admitted political novice, as political malpractice. So getting back to it feels very welcome and timely.
It will be interesting to see how the "deal" Trump negotiated with Xi, by which China will resume purchasing soybeans from the U.S., will affect U.S. farmers' sentiments.
I believe farmers are wise enough to wait for proof before believing any statements T**** makes; too much on the line. Same goes for the statement re: imported beef, as Simon quoted above.
Thanks Simon, great news. “Let’s go kick some MAGA Ass”! I love it.
Calls in to CA Senators, got a live person in both DC offices.
Our Yes on 50 lawn signs are across from a school. We just a few days ago got this note in our mailbox: “Love seeing your signs when I drop off @ school! Happy to see another ally in [Fair Oaks].” Made our day.
I'll phonebook on CA 50 tonight. Big week next week. I'll call my "Senators" about SNAP, tariffs, as a start.
I also saw something about Casey Means again as Surgeon General. Did she not yet get confirmed? I had forgotten about that. That is another fresh hell that will go under the radar. Having a "wellness influencer" as Surgeon General is possibly as low as things can go.
On tariffs: I think it is connecting that tariffs mean higher prices for the customer.
But to rub it in, is it not long, long, long past time to borrow a page from the GOP/Frank Luntz playbook (the inventor of the of "the death tax" for the "inheritance tax"), and also call the tariffs "import taxes"? And indeed, you could call tariffs on individual recognizable items, "the banana tax", "the lumber tax", etc.
Rob, voters know tariffs equal higher prices. There is a great deal of data showing this. While I agree we must keep making the connection the connection has already been made, and it is the central thing driving down Trump's approval rating.
Thanks, good to see you're on live. Don't forget to get lunch! Our family's voters squared away our votes for Spanberger and the ticket down the line in NoVa, with some of us canvassing.
I watched the debate between Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears on YouTube last night. Oh, my God. . . What an incredibly rude person Sears is. She kept interrupting Abigail and the moderators essentially had to tell her to cut it out. I just had to laugh at Sears for the ridiculous things she said.
As for Abigail, she held her own. She was unflappable as she detailed her plans and accurately pointed out what Winsome has done during her time in office. As someone pointed out in the comments, the moderators asked her yes-no questions that actually required more nuance, and Abigail delivered on that front.
If the debate taught us anything, it shows us who's better-qualified to be Virginia's next governor--and I'll continue phone-banking on her behalf!
The media is really pushing the narrative about New Jersey, and almost predicting a Ciaterrelli win. The whole "Dems in trouble" routine. Disgrace. We are pushing hard in Pennsylvania for our 3 Democratic Supreme Court justices to be retained. Big MAGA money flooding the state. Josh Shapiro has been working hard. John Fetterman - crickets
Hey, happy to share that in my canvassing experiences here in VA, people have become more informed voters and want to have good conversations, many have already voted and others have a plan to vote. And what has been really heartening is that they are giving quick, happy responses of 'Yes' when asked if they would like signs for their yard - for state legislators and for Gov/Lt Gov/AG. Encourage your friends, co-workers and others to vote during the final few days of early voting if they can. And remember if you have school board candidates in your canvassing area, please share that candidate's info. with them as well. That will be one thing that may cause people to go, hmmm, when they get to the voting booth, and a very important item to focus on if you're serving as Poll Greeter. Woohoo to good energy.
Simon and friends, it’s no wonder many who zero in on Fox and similar platforms are often misled. See no further than this article featuring commentary by Brett Baier concerning the VA/NJ gubernatorial races. Granted, it’s foolish of us should we feel ‘bullish’ however, the reliable polling and data you’ve consistently provided us Simon, tells a different story.
they are working the refs, its' their only shot; i think it was greg sargent i heard this morning saying the trends are all in the dems favor in these elections; his guest went on to say that even though abbie and mikie are centrists and mamdani is a democratic socialist, they all seem to be saying similar things; concern for peoples' economic struggles. i don't see jack c doing anything other than displaying testosterone.
Called both my republican senators, told them to continue working on the “growing a spine” project so they could stand up to Trump and take back their power! Also railed against the ballroom and the children who will soon be going without food!
Millie Polli Haskell...Reporting-first, Simon, Thank you for your comments. Thank you for caring so much. Thank you for giving Us All so much HOPIUM! I already made my two calls, as you suggested. Sen. Scott was not available, but I Demanded twice, that he Act upon Our Four Part Agenda!!! And the same to Rep. Luna! I was Very, Very, Very Loud as well! I also said tell Mike Johnson, they must Repeal the Tariffs! They must Re-open the Government! Ensure Snap is Funded next month! And he must Seat Rep. Adelita Grijalva!
Going canvassing in Maine this weekend to get out the vote against Prop 1, which would make absentee voting much, much harder. Volunteers are being given the opportunity to hear both Janet Mills on Saturday and Graham Platnner on Sunday. Should be interesting.
Thank you! For others in New England consider spending Sunday in Maine with the Maine Dems! Do you have a link for folks to volunteer?
https://swingleft.org/event/register/mobilize:830556?source=%2Fevents&s=u
Here’s a link for phone banking for Prop 50 in California
https://swingleft.org/event/register/mobilize:836555?source=%2Fevents&s=u
I’m in Maine and boy did we turn out!
That is terrific!!!!
If I read this right both Mills and Platner are speaking out against Proposition 1 in Maine? If so that's great.
I recall learning about this in Simon's interview with the Maine Democratic Chair Charlie Dingman. So damn sneaky for the GOP to package this as a "Voter ID" act. Here's a link to the interview, it's right around the 6 minute mark where Prop 1 comes up. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/sunday-hopium-meet-maine-democratic?r=2ia0gw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Is the packaging all that sneaky? Whenever Republicans talk about Voter ID or anything to do with voting, we *know* they're trying to suppress the vote of anyone likely to vote Democratic, e.g., young people, Black people, unmarried women . . .
Fair point, for sure. I've certainly known from the start that Voter ID laws were just another tool in the voter suppression toolkit, pushed by conservative groups like ALEC (I think that's the one). It's always been a "solution" in search of a problem, since the incidents of actual voter fraud where someone shows up pretending to be someone else were very low. But I think maybe there are some "swing" voters that see a Voter ID requirement as reasonable in their view, but would not want to make absentee voting so much more difficult - e.g. make it harder for their elderly parent to vote. So describing Prop. 1 as a Voter ID bill when it's really geared toward making absentee voting much harder is in my view sneaky.
Called both OH senators to urge them to vote to end global tariffs. Both rely on voice mail greetings. Moreno’s vm greeting has been the same for months “sorry we can’t take your call; leave your name / number we’ll call you back.” I have never received a return call.
Yes, it's been so frustrating. I've called multiple times as well and have gotten no response from either Senator. We really need to get Sherrod Brown back in the Senate ASAP!
It's still important and effective. My understanding is pretty much every conversation turns into a check mark on a list - for this; against this.
You're right, Steve, so I keep on calling. I'm actually just about a year away from retiring, so I'll be "sharing my thoughts" with my unresponsive Senators with greater frequently once I have a bit more time on my hands!
I’m not sure what the OH senators’ office practices are re: tracking input on issues. When I email, I receive a response from Sen Husted that is somewhat related to my topics; Sen Moreno’s email response is boiler plate - thank you for writing!! It’s important for me to hear from constituents!! This response is received within a couple of hours.
I've been thinking about this dichotomy between the 2 parties . Dems are the party of AmeriCAN while the Republicans are the party of AmeriCANT. I think a simple message like that could be the unifying umbrella message that gives candidates the ability to tell potential voters what they CAN do as their representative and that are tailored to their district's wants and needs. While using the framing of all the things their Republican oppontant CAN'T do as their representative. Put another way it's,
Dems = Can/GOP = Can't.
I know which party I'd want to align myself with, I bet you do, too! 😉
"AmeriCAN while the Republicans are the party of AmeriCANT"
I love it -
Turns out Trump and co RepubliCANT turn the economy around!
Yup
R= Reverse
D= Drive
Put the car in D
Love this!
Dems tried this a while ago, maybe around Hillary's campaign. IIRC it's how we got the logo of a D with a circle in it. It was supposed to evoke putting a car in Drive. The same idea was why Hillary's campaign slogan was the rather forgettalbe "Forward Together".
It's a fine logo, but I don't think the D brand is currently strong enough to carry the message that we are for prosperity progress for everyone.
That's part of our challenge.
This is really good!
Good sloganeering
However, too many Dems have been trading on this for decades -- as long as the Republicans have been so awful that voting for the Democratic candidate was a no-brainer. IMO the last Republicans worth voting for were Charlie Baker in my state (MA) and Larry Hogan in MD. I doubt either one could win a Republican primary now.
Look at how the onset of Trump II shocked the Dem congressional leadership into silence. It shouldn't have. By 2024 they *knew* what Trump was about. They'd seen 1/6/2021. They knew how badly elections have been corrupted by Citizens United. Also look at how the Dems taking the lead now are the governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state -- those who hold office *outside* the Beltway and are more closely connected to voters in the states.
Support Democratic candidates for sure, but "Won't Get Fooled Again" is a good mantra for the foreseeable future.
Please explain the word “overperforming,” when speaking of elections. All these candidates did was win their election. That is not “overdoing” that is called winning. In other words they performed. But they didn’t OVERperform!
Peggy, this terminology is commonly used in politics. What it means in this case is that our candidates have been regularly overperforming our 2024 performance in theirs election by double digits, signifying a structural shift in the electorate. So overperformance on a given baseline is good, a sign of our strength and their weakness.
I guess it is a trend line. So, if a Democratic candidate does better than the Democratic candidate in the same district in the previous cycle, or perhaps even if the Democratic candidate does better than Harris did in the district, that would be "over performing".
So, in that lexicon, one could over perform and actually lose. I canvassed for Josh Weil in CD 6 in Florida, for example, who I think lost by ~10 points. But in that district in the previous cycle, the Democratic candidate had lost by ~30 points.
Yes, this is correct. Here's a new DNC memo on what is happening and why it matters - https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Reporter-Note-Democratic-Overperformance-1.pdf
This structural "overperformance" is in line with these other structural shifts towards the Dems that I review in the post today.
And as Simon points out, this is important. Back in the 2000s, thanks to Howard Dean and others, the Dems pushed for a "50-state strategy." This meant not giving up on deep-red districts and states; it was crucial to offer Democratic alternatives to voters in those (in effect) one-party states. A Dem candidate might get only 40% of the vote but that was better than Dems getting 0% because there was no Democrat running. Unfortunately that fell by the wayside after Obama was elected the first time. Then came the Citizens United decision, the Tea Party election, and general conservative freakout that voters had actually elected a Black man to the presidency.
I think all of that is right. I have also heard (I'm not aware of statistics to back it up, but I think it was David Pepper I heard it from, and also it seems to likely be true) that running candidates in red districts who lose still has the effect of bumping up statewide totals maybe 1-2%. So, you might lose several red districts, but make your chances are winning a statewide race better.
I think it also is a way to identify new talent. If Anderson Clayton didn't have money to work with, we wouldn't have found her. If we didn't have people running and winning in red areas at least sometime, we will never learn how to talk to voters who are not, at least now, naturally in our base. It's a farm system for political talent.
Tester in Montana comes to mind. Andy Beshear is another. Democrats who are proven winners in red states. It is possible, but we won't learn and won't find people who can figure it out unless we give people a chance.
The fact that we abandoned 50 states, run everywhere, seem to me, as an admitted political novice, as political malpractice. So getting back to it feels very welcome and timely.
Thanks. So, they are performing better than previously or better than previous candidates in their party. That’s where the “over” comes in.
It will be interesting to see how the "deal" Trump negotiated with Xi, by which China will resume purchasing soybeans from the U.S., will affect U.S. farmers' sentiments.
It will take a few days for us to understand what was really agreed to. If it isn't real farmers are going to be very vocal in letting all of us know.
I believe farmers are wise enough to wait for proof before believing any statements T**** makes; too much on the line. Same goes for the statement re: imported beef, as Simon quoted above.
Thanks Simon, great news. “Let’s go kick some MAGA Ass”! I love it.
Calls in to CA Senators, got a live person in both DC offices.
Our Yes on 50 lawn signs are across from a school. We just a few days ago got this note in our mailbox: “Love seeing your signs when I drop off @ school! Happy to see another ally in [Fair Oaks].” Made our day.
I'll phonebook on CA 50 tonight. Big week next week. I'll call my "Senators" about SNAP, tariffs, as a start.
I also saw something about Casey Means again as Surgeon General. Did she not yet get confirmed? I had forgotten about that. That is another fresh hell that will go under the radar. Having a "wellness influencer" as Surgeon General is possibly as low as things can go.
She'll need a new title if she gets in. Maybe "Top Quack"? "Snake Oil Czar"?
It works.
Emphasis on possibly.
On tariffs: I think it is connecting that tariffs mean higher prices for the customer.
But to rub it in, is it not long, long, long past time to borrow a page from the GOP/Frank Luntz playbook (the inventor of the of "the death tax" for the "inheritance tax"), and also call the tariffs "import taxes"? And indeed, you could call tariffs on individual recognizable items, "the banana tax", "the lumber tax", etc.
Rob, voters know tariffs equal higher prices. There is a great deal of data showing this. While I agree we must keep making the connection the connection has already been made, and it is the central thing driving down Trump's approval rating.
Thanks, good to see you're on live. Don't forget to get lunch! Our family's voters squared away our votes for Spanberger and the ticket down the line in NoVa, with some of us canvassing.
I watched the debate between Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears on YouTube last night. Oh, my God. . . What an incredibly rude person Sears is. She kept interrupting Abigail and the moderators essentially had to tell her to cut it out. I just had to laugh at Sears for the ridiculous things she said.
As for Abigail, she held her own. She was unflappable as she detailed her plans and accurately pointed out what Winsome has done during her time in office. As someone pointed out in the comments, the moderators asked her yes-no questions that actually required more nuance, and Abigail delivered on that front.
If the debate taught us anything, it shows us who's better-qualified to be Virginia's next governor--and I'll continue phone-banking on her behalf!
The media is really pushing the narrative about New Jersey, and almost predicting a Ciaterrelli win. The whole "Dems in trouble" routine. Disgrace. We are pushing hard in Pennsylvania for our 3 Democratic Supreme Court justices to be retained. Big MAGA money flooding the state. Josh Shapiro has been working hard. John Fetterman - crickets
Hate to hear that about Fetterman.
Another BS media thing ; "Nazi adjacent". What the heck is that? Whitewashing
Hey, happy to share that in my canvassing experiences here in VA, people have become more informed voters and want to have good conversations, many have already voted and others have a plan to vote. And what has been really heartening is that they are giving quick, happy responses of 'Yes' when asked if they would like signs for their yard - for state legislators and for Gov/Lt Gov/AG. Encourage your friends, co-workers and others to vote during the final few days of early voting if they can. And remember if you have school board candidates in your canvassing area, please share that candidate's info. with them as well. That will be one thing that may cause people to go, hmmm, when they get to the voting booth, and a very important item to focus on if you're serving as Poll Greeter. Woohoo to good energy.
thanks for this report Deb! Keep working it everyone!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fox-bret-baier-declares-republicans-202511935.html
Simon and friends, it’s no wonder many who zero in on Fox and similar platforms are often misled. See no further than this article featuring commentary by Brett Baier concerning the VA/NJ gubernatorial races. Granted, it’s foolish of us should we feel ‘bullish’ however, the reliable polling and data you’ve consistently provided us Simon, tells a different story.
Isn't he rumored to be wanted for the CBS Evening News? Walter Cronkite rolling over!!
they are working the refs, its' their only shot; i think it was greg sargent i heard this morning saying the trends are all in the dems favor in these elections; his guest went on to say that even though abbie and mikie are centrists and mamdani is a democratic socialist, they all seem to be saying similar things; concern for peoples' economic struggles. i don't see jack c doing anything other than displaying testosterone.
Called both my republican senators, told them to continue working on the “growing a spine” project so they could stand up to Trump and take back their power! Also railed against the ballroom and the children who will soon be going without food!
Millie Polli Haskell...Reporting-first, Simon, Thank you for your comments. Thank you for caring so much. Thank you for giving Us All so much HOPIUM! I already made my two calls, as you suggested. Sen. Scott was not available, but I Demanded twice, that he Act upon Our Four Part Agenda!!! And the same to Rep. Luna! I was Very, Very, Very Loud as well! I also said tell Mike Johnson, they must Repeal the Tariffs! They must Re-open the Government! Ensure Snap is Funded next month! And he must Seat Rep. Adelita Grijalva!
I appreciate the clarification. Thank you.
Oh, the graphs become more beautiful by the day.