Morning all. Last night the Senate voted to roll back Trump’s tariffs on Canada, 50-46. 4 Republicans joined the Democrats - Senators Collins, McConnell, Murkowski, and Paul. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who had voted with the Dems on the Brazil tariff repeal a on Tuesday, voted with the Republicans this time. So in the past two days the Senate has now voted to repeal both the tariffs on both Brazil and Canada, a remarkable rebuke of Trump and his terrible trade policy. A vote to repeal his broad, global tariffs is scheduled in the Senate in the early afternoon today. If you can please make your calls to your two Senators this morning and urge them to repeal these disastrous and illegal tariffs that have slowed our economy, made things more expensive, shifted the tax burden of the US from the wealthy to all of us, angered our allies, and weakened the US-led global order (a topic that Senator Shaheen addresses in our new, far-ranging discussion that I released yesterday).
In my talk to Hopium paid subscribers (above) I make my case for why I think we are seeing this very public rebuke of Trump now. It boils down to this - Trump’s regime is doing clear material harm to the American people, including the constituents of Republican legislators; he is deeply unpopular and his agenda even more so; his cognitive and physical decline, and escalating madness and corruption, has become impossible to ignore; Democrats keep overperforming in elections across the country and are poised to have a strong election next week (if we keep working hard!!!); he is attempting to render Congressional Republicans eunuchs, stripping them of power and authority; he has ordered them to shut the government down and dissolved the House, and then skipped town for a week; he illegally bulldozed the East Wing of the White House to himself an imperial ballroom FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is just too much. He has gone too far. His agenda is clearly failing and wildly unpopular, and Republican candidates who are going to have to run on all this next year - and “defend the indefensible” as I call it - are not happy. There are limits, and Trump may be running into them now. For most of these Republicans in Congress right now are going to be around long after Trump is gone, and they are going to have to live with the extraordinary mess he is making for years, perhaps decades.
Congressional Republicans now face two very bad choices - embrace the Trump agenda, and run next year on what is the most unpopular agenda in modern times; or begin challenging Trump to course correct, and mitigate the damage he is doing (something ole orange guy ain’t going to like). In normal times they would choose the second course, and I think we are seeing Rs testing the limits of how far they can challenge Trump to find a better path.
The first very big rebuke of Trump happened in late July when House Republicans voted to release the Epstein files, an act of rebellion that led Trump and Johnson to essentially dissolve the House for the last three months. The Republican head of the National Governors’ Association broke with him on his deployment of National Guard to cities; Senate Rs have repeatedly shown their discontent with what Robert Kennedy is going at HHS; Congressional Republicans are calling for restoration of the ACA subsidy cuts; a group of Senate Republicans introduced a bill to ensure that SNAP gets funded in November, breaking with Trump’s decision to let 42 million Americans go hungry; we’ve had two Senate votes rebuking him on his terrible tariffs, with a third coming this afternoon; and here’s the Politico home page right now with a screaming headline:
“Farm-state Republicans finally reach their breaking point”
Here’s an excerpt from the article:
So far, the burst of objections has not generated a U-turn from the administration, which is going ahead with a beef import plan that Trump officials argue will both lower steak and hamburger prices for American consumers and bolster relations with a key Trump ally, Argentinian President Javier Milei.
But it has exposed the limits of GOP lawmakers’ tolerance for policies that have especially tested states heavy on agriculture. Some of the president’s staunchest Hill allies watched for months as Trump’s tariffs devastated farmers. More recently, they begged his deputies to reopen key farm offices during the shutdown. Then came the beef beef, with one GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly calling it a “a betrayal of America First principles.”
Even in the Trump-loyal House, key Republicans are pushing back.
Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), and Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.), along with 11 other House Republicans, warned against Trump’s beef move, according to a letter sent Tuesday to Rollins and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that was obtained exclusively by POLITICO.
“We believe strongly that the path to lower prices and stronger competition lies in continued investment at home … rather than policies that advantage foreign competitors,” they wrote.
The frustrations are also playing out on the Senate floor this week on a series of votes to undo some of Trump’s global tariffs. On Tuesday, five GOP senators joined Democrats to reverse 50 percent tariffs on Brazil; four Republicans voted Wednesday to cancel tariffs on Canada. While the votes are largely symbolic — House Republicans have preempted any challenges to Trump tariffs until February — the message was sent.
“Brazil had a trade surplus and the impetus behind it appears to be a disagreement with a judicial proceeding,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said, referring to Trump’s displeasure with the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. “I just don’t think that’s a strong basis for using the trade lever.”
Yes, Simon, you say, they always fall in line. That’s true.
Until they don’t.
I now want to spend a little time with the far more challenging political landscape that the many, many Republican candidates running in 2026 all across the country will have to grapple with.
Democrats have gained 7-8 points in the Generic ballot this year, and now have a 3-4 point lead:
Party ID has shifted dramatically towards the Democrats:
Democrats are now more trusted on this key economic measure for the first time in many, many years:
Consumer sentiment is near the lowest level recorded in the past 65 years:
In the Economist/YouGov weekly track Trump this week Trump hit his lowest approval of either term so far:
The agenda Republicans will have to run on next year is much more unpopular than Trump:
As I said in my talk last night this next week to ten days is going to be a very, very consequential period in our politics, and we need to be all in - making our calls and keeping the pressure on Congress, and doing everything we can to win these elections next week and send a very loud and clear message of repudiation of Trump and his rancid agenda of sabotage, plunder, and betrayal.
So watch my presentation and our lively question and answer session afterwards. Hit like if you found it helpful, and share it and this post with others you think might be interested. And now, my friends……
Let’s Go Kick Some MAGA Ass, Together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Hopium members in CA/NJ/NY/PA/VA or wherever you have elections on November 4th - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your name comes off campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world and fully fund SNAP FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
