The truest thing to emerge from a GOP Politician’s mouth in the last 50 years was when George H.W. Bush called Reagan’s supply side econ theory “Voodoo Economics”.....unfortunately, it was also the last time any Republican has challenged it in spite of abundant evidence of what it actually produces 🤦♂️
Thank you for this, Simon. The only part I could do without is the pic of, well, you know. It's come to this. When I see pictures of such as these, I have a visceral response.
Simon do you do conversions with groups via zoom? We are an active Indivisible group that would love to get you to speak to our members about talking points to use in writing letters to the editor and basically to counter disinformation without using or repeating their code words. Like what you are doing with swing left. Our group is in Milford, MI. IT’s called Indivisible Huron Valley (MI). We are set up to host zoom calls and to record if you say it is okay to put on our website and Facebook page. My name is Peggy Van Sickle my phone number is (810) 499-3749 and my email address is pvansickle59@gmail.com. Thank you for you consideration. We are looking at November 8, 2023 at or about 7:00- 7:30 pm
How is it not obvious to even the most extreme GOP that allowing the country go into default (even for the perceived goal of hurting Biden and the Dems), is NOT MAGA (Making America Great Again) but would in fact drive America down to an unprecedented state in which the world will no longer "trust" in our institutions and financial stability as they have in the past. The fallout from an event such as this, even if the situation is managed by Treasury to make it the least harmful possible, will affect EVERYONE, not just "woke," not just Dems, not just "elite," not just all those who are in the crosshairs of irrationally angry and destructive people. ALL AMERICANS will feel the results of the reduction of America's credit rating and the loss of the world's belief in our underlying stability (more than it's already been lost). I don't think that the GOP realize that once this damage is done, it may be impossible to undo. Their getting back into office will not undo it. They have lost all ability to think rationally and practically, and holding the country hostage in their hypocrisy instead of acting in the interest of the country at large is outrageous. It's all about a mission to destroy -- something or someone. But wouldn't you think somebody among them would notice with alarm that pursuing this mission is cutting off their nose to spite their face -- on a massive scale? They have no idea what they're bringing about, I fear. We ALL have to live with such a degradation, if it happens. What on earth good is being able to point a finger and say "it's their fault" when the the reality of it would be hardship of one sort or another for everyone?
My overall view is that most Americans are tuned out and the GOP is in a “get to tomorrow” continuation. Just do whatever you need to do to harm democrats and get to tomorrow.
I did check it out. Thanks for the reference. If that's really true, then what does that say about our future as a society (not just ours, but any society of humans)? Is that our ultimate destiny? If so, then all of this is just game-as-prelude. I'm not feeling any better, but I do appreciate your reminder of human nature. Can we ever be more than what's in our nature?
Understand, but sometimes I just need some kind of answer to all the reasonable, humane ideas you wrote. It’s interesting to me that an analysis of this fable actually mentioned politicians as an example!
At this point I’m fighting like hell against this garbage ( whatever I can do) and taking hope from lovely people like yourself and other good people on this post, my friends and Simon and Marc Macias, and,and or I would get depressed. I’m so glad I focused my anger and concerns and marched with thousands of people in the women’s March after dt got elected and then the millions who marched did eventually dump him out. The young voters/ activists inspire me now but you are so right; how do you explain nuts philosophies?
I’m also so glad there are leaders out there like Simon and others who don’t give up but keep informing and urging us “Forward”.
Of course we can be more. We are human beings. Human is only part of our nature. Being could be the higher element. Sadly we have 6000 years (or so?) of proof that human nature is violent, destructive, murderous, warlike and selfish beyond belief and beyond sustainability, though it has taken thousands of years to get to this cliff. (I love the scorpion/frog tale too; we should laminate it and send it to Congress!) So... is it then the end of this amazing experiment in Melting Pot Democracy? Very possibly. See Ben Franklin: A Republic, if you can keep it.
One might think that it is the Republican GOAL to make the Chinese Yuan the global currency instead of the dollar and to ensure that America has NO allies and certainly none who actually trust us ever again. (Sherlock Holmes: When you have eliminated the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.) It boggles the mind. Is a theocratic authoritarian nation that important to them?
More needs to be said about D/WH lack of messaging around the economy/debt ceiling. This IS where Biden’s issues as a communicator come into play. Pete’s busy talking about travel this weekend but they need to get him and other surrogates out there making the case, now and going forward.
I totally get where you're coming from, but I have a slightly different theory of what's happening, and I could most certainly be wrong....but here's what I'm guessing:
Joe knew all along this was going to happen, so he started laying the ground work to rope-a-dope MAGA into negotiating the BUDGET now by being willing to negotiate with them over the debt ceiling, where he would have a much stronger hand and more leverage than this fall when the budget would normally be negotiated. This gives him the best possible chance to avoid both a default AND the inevitable government shutdown that they would impose on us later in the year, and give him the chance to demand as part of the agreement that this debt ceiling raise is good for two full years of spending, so that we don't go through this again next year.
The reason why I think they didn't go to the mattresses with PR on this is because the public is exhausted with Washington drama and barely understands what the debt ceiling is, which means it will be easier for the Rs to deceive them than it will be for Ds to educate them.....so, if Joe can negotiate a deal that isn't too bad that we can fix after re-taking the house, then we can protect the investments from last year and give the economy the best chance to continue growing and thriving rather than fall into recession and the public basically will go on with their lives rather than get roped up into another "Both Sides Pie Fight" narrative that the traditional media will report and controversy that MAGA will cook up. Joe knows that there are still 100 or more Rs in the house who actually know that a default would be catastrophic and truly needs to be avoided, so if he can broker a deal that gives them the appearance they want of meaningful spending cuts while maneuvering those cuts with creative accounting over a long enough period of time that the vast majority of our priorities aren't really sacrificed, everybody wins, but we win the most because there was never a major public disaster that Joe might easily have been blamed for......
NOW....why try to keep it low key in the lead up? Because, if a deal can't be struck (which I think would include Ds saving Kevin McCarthy's Speakership to offset the votes he would lose form the crazy caucus), then at the last minute Joe could then take unilateral action and say, "I'm unwilling to allow America to default on its debts and create a global financial meltdown." At that moment in time, we would have the ABSOLUTE upper hand in the PR battle.....we wouldn't be in default at least for some time because Joe would be justifying the treasury continuing to pay our bills on legal theory based on constitutionality. This would be challenged in court, and would no doubt be taken all the way to the SCOTUS.......but, all that time we could be educating the public as to what a default would mean, and repeat that Joe negotiated in good faith and the Rs wouldn't make an agreement that could pass both houses of congress, leaving Joe with no options other than to default or take unilateral action to protect the American people from the effects of a default brought on by Congress failing to perform their duties. At that point, the SCOTUS would literally have to ORDER Joe Biden to default on the nation's debts, because there was no alternative......he never received a bill that he could sign or veto.....he was just left to either keep paying the bills or default. If SCOTUS orders him to default because they deem he doesn't have the constitutional authority to act unilaterally, it will either put ENORMOUS pressure on every sane member of congress to get a debt ceiling hike passed before the default, OR....the Republicans will 100% OWN the default because Joe fought like hell to prevent it from day one and only surrendered by an order from the same SCOTUS that rolled back Roe v Wade.
Now....I'd much prefer to not default and just head into next year with a booming economy, but if there's no way out, I sure as hell want to win the message war, and our chances of doing so are WAYYYYY better AFTER Joe would have to take unilateral action and be sued over it than to try to do it now when nobody really understands what the debt ceiling is, why its important, and what it would mean to not raise it.
So....maybe I'm wrong, but I think this has all been a quite deliberate game of 3D Chess by Joe and his team to trick Republicans into negotiating a budget that will hold until the election AND raise the debt ceiling for long enough that we won't have to revisit it again until after the election, therefore avoiding both a default AND a government shutdown later, and positioning himself to clobber them in the message war if they don't play ball. I'm actually pretty optimistic, but I also knew that there would be consequences to MAGA winning back the house, even with the narrow margin that they got.....so, I'm buckled in and ready for what they throw at us, and I know for sure the best political tactician we've seen since Lyndon Johnson and some of the smartest people on planet Earth are on the case.
Yep, I understand that analysis and I think it may well be right about what the WH did and why. I just think they are wrong. My views on this go all the way back to the campaign where every once in a while a campaign guy was, I’m sure, directed to call or text me, to humor me. I appreciated the communications and felt sorry for him and his short straw! But he made it to the WH and is doing a good job there.
As to the debt limit, there has never been any reason for Biden to allow a default to happen and I don’t believe he would have done so. The 14th amendment, as I’ve written here, has always been available; I’ve even written here how mechanically you would trigger it. If he hadn’t used it to avoid a default, neither history nor the American voting public would have ever forgiven him, and his presidency would effectively be over with all the disaster that would entail. Hopefully we will actually get a pretty good deal.
Thanks again for your thoughtful views. I very much appreciate them and, as I say, you might well be right!
Thank you, I enjoy your analysis as well! Let’s just say I hope I’m right, and not for my own ego… This is the path they have taken, so I hope that it works out to everyone’s highest good. #FingersCrossed 🤞🤞
I’m just a hack who follows this stuff in my spare time when I’m not fishing for tips while I play and sing songs… You on the other hand appear to have a lot of pretty legitimate experience. Please tell me about what you have done professionally in this arena 🙂
Thanks, I’m about to go to bed, but to respond to you kind request— I spent a career in Washington public policy, law and a bit of lobbying. Decades ago, I worked for 18 years in the government, including subcabinet political positions during the 4 years of the Carter Administration and 6 years for Reagan— yep, not a typo. I was then senior Vice President and general counsel of a major trade association for 20 years, then a partner in a Washington law firm. But my views are no better than yours, and maybe not as good! Cheers.
Views are not better or worse, just views. But yours are particularly experienced and I always appreciate hearing from someone with relevant background. (I would have put money on PianoMan having relevant background as well so...there's that. I do like logical thinkers!)
From your lips to their ears! I certainly hope you are right. Because this would be brilliant.
But if Joe is playing 3d chess, GOP is still playing Russian roulette.
(You think Biden is the best tactician since LBJ and I do agree that's probable; he's got the Senate experience LBJ had and that seems to be a huge help; it was an Obama weakness.)
I feel like he is using Lincoln as his guide (the only president I know of who faced a threat to our constitutional system comparable to right now)......he has extreme executive options to deploy, but can’t risk using them until and unless he literally has no other alternatives and is sure that he can convince the American People of that because of the brazenness and dangerous recklessness that MAGA is demonstrating.......
I think about this a lot, and I think the greatest challenge Biden has is that he’s staving off an autocratic authoritarian threat, which of course means the threat of an all powerful radical executive who doesn’t have any checks on his control.....so it’s tricky to explain to the public why you have to act unilaterally and circumvent the checks of a coequal branch of government in order to protect the nation from an authoritarian.....if you do it too early and there’s not a complete enough understanding of the threat they are posing then you end up looking like the authoritarian and the right wing noise machine will pummel you into the ground with it. But if you have the restraint to wait and negotiate and exhaust every conceivable option first and then finally take unilateral action knowing that it will go to the courts, you’re in a much better position to win this public debate about why it was necessary and the court will either destroy MAGA and exonerate Biden by ordering a catastrophe or just exonerate Biden by ruling what MAGA was doing as unconstitutional.
It’s scary stuff having to let them push us so close to the brink of ruin, but if we don’t win the public debate on this as well as the long term electoral and policy battles, our coalition will fracture and our victories won’t hold. Finger crossed 🤞!!!
It is very scary stuff. And I have a tendency toward cynicism anyway (if you expect the worst you are seldom disappointed). I so hope you are correct about this. It makes sense. And it is hard to be that patient in the face of all the screaming faces. But that's why he is there!
(Someone wrote this week that if Trump died Democrats would pressure Biden to retire and open the field; I think if Trump died Biden would retire and that he is running because of his understanding of how dangerous this time is and how unqualified most of DC is to deal with it. I fear he won't survive it but I so admire his willingness to be there at the end of a life of service to the Republic.)
Glad he negotiated a deal, shocking many. He keeps being underestimated and then delivers.
I really loved reading Newt Gingriche’s (!!)article about our POTUS, warning the GOP about him. After seeing all Simons data Newts nightmare is coming true. It’s a tough, tough situation but I’m so proud of how our Democratic leaders are fighting back at all levels especially Senators at weaponization committes, Marc Elias/group on Democracy Docket, Simon in building an army of informed, engaged supporters, the bare- fisted Lincoln Project, the Youth Rising, the united Dem Attorney Generals. The list goes on and on. Dems on the March. No guarantees but feels good to work hard, together, following amazing, strong, leaders determined to prevent autocratic rule and to keep our democracy.
I agree with everything Simon said, but I would have tried to make your point… if you hadn’t made it so well first. So, thank you. There are three parts to this problem— The first is Biden, who is not a gifted orator. Except when he really rehearses, which he apparently hates to do. Take his speech at the White House Correspondents dinner. It was well written and very well delivered. Since he did it there, he can do it everywhere.
The second is, as you point out there’s no second level advocacy on the domestic side. Cabinet members were picked for the most part to be corporate managers of their departments; that was a colossal mistake. The Deputy Secretary is suppose to run the agency; the Secretary needs to be an inspiring and tough minded advocate. Can you imagine what it would have been like to have had Jamie Raskin as Attorney General, rather than Marrick Garland?!
The third problem is the White House staff; while they are generally superior folks, they’ve been tasked to concentrate on the inside game. They need to concentrate on Biden and Harris connecting with the public. No one apparently has the courage to tell him that he’s not. So, to get back to your point, Biden needs to speak well - not just loud - and it is the staff’s duty to make sure he does. I’m told they try and can’t get him to rehearse. My response— Nancy got Ronnie to do it; Michele got Barack to do it; Jill can get Joe to do it. Nothing is so important to the success of a presidency than the president connecting with the public, taking the public into the president’s confidence.
Millions of Americans are pulling for Biden— he has accomplished so much…. But most people have no idea. It’s time that got turned around. If you do something good and no one knows you did it, you didn’t do it.
McCarthy and republicans are doing exactly what Trump wants, because Trump is driving the whole thing. Everything they say and do has Trump’s signature “burn it all down” attitude. He tried to destroy not just the government, but all of America on 1/6/21. It didn’t work so he’s manipulating republicans to do it this way, and they don’t appear to have a clue. All they care about is the praise of a seriously mentally disturbed lifelong criminal who knows he’s very likely going to prison at some point, so what does he care?
It occurred to me yesterday reading Politico (you will probably think I'm slow on the uptake...) that this is in no way Governance nor even chess or checkers (nor is it a game): this is Russian roulette!
Steve Schmidt wrote this week that McCarthy has never shown any ability to land any legislative deal — not in California and not in Congress. All he has done is work for himself and a title. Doesn't exactly define "leadership." But he is playing roulette with MAGA guns all pointed at his head. You almost feel sorry for him.
I will never understand Republicans clear hatred for America and Americans and democracy. Clear hatred for children and seniors and the disadvantaged. They can't all be both obtuse and obdurate, can they?
Thanks, Simon, for helping keep us coherent and giving us hope that we may have some influence in the political arena (though I don't really believe it at this stage).
The truest thing to emerge from a GOP Politician’s mouth in the last 50 years was when George H.W. Bush called Reagan’s supply side econ theory “Voodoo Economics”.....unfortunately, it was also the last time any Republican has challenged it in spite of abundant evidence of what it actually produces 🤦♂️
Thank you for this, Simon. The only part I could do without is the pic of, well, you know. It's come to this. When I see pictures of such as these, I have a visceral response.
Still, grateful for all you say here. Naturally.
Simon do you do conversions with groups via zoom? We are an active Indivisible group that would love to get you to speak to our members about talking points to use in writing letters to the editor and basically to counter disinformation without using or repeating their code words. Like what you are doing with swing left. Our group is in Milford, MI. IT’s called Indivisible Huron Valley (MI). We are set up to host zoom calls and to record if you say it is okay to put on our website and Facebook page. My name is Peggy Van Sickle my phone number is (810) 499-3749 and my email address is pvansickle59@gmail.com. Thank you for you consideration. We are looking at November 8, 2023 at or about 7:00- 7:30 pm
Hey Peggy! Simon has a link on the Main Hopium Homepage where you can invite him to speak to your group....check it out here: https://simonwdc.substack.com/p/simons-bioheadshot-booking-simon
Good luck!!!
How is it not obvious to even the most extreme GOP that allowing the country go into default (even for the perceived goal of hurting Biden and the Dems), is NOT MAGA (Making America Great Again) but would in fact drive America down to an unprecedented state in which the world will no longer "trust" in our institutions and financial stability as they have in the past. The fallout from an event such as this, even if the situation is managed by Treasury to make it the least harmful possible, will affect EVERYONE, not just "woke," not just Dems, not just "elite," not just all those who are in the crosshairs of irrationally angry and destructive people. ALL AMERICANS will feel the results of the reduction of America's credit rating and the loss of the world's belief in our underlying stability (more than it's already been lost). I don't think that the GOP realize that once this damage is done, it may be impossible to undo. Their getting back into office will not undo it. They have lost all ability to think rationally and practically, and holding the country hostage in their hypocrisy instead of acting in the interest of the country at large is outrageous. It's all about a mission to destroy -- something or someone. But wouldn't you think somebody among them would notice with alarm that pursuing this mission is cutting off their nose to spite their face -- on a massive scale? They have no idea what they're bringing about, I fear. We ALL have to live with such a degradation, if it happens. What on earth good is being able to point a finger and say "it's their fault" when the the reality of it would be hardship of one sort or another for everyone?
My overall view is that most Americans are tuned out and the GOP is in a “get to tomorrow” continuation. Just do whatever you need to do to harm democrats and get to tomorrow.
Empathy doesn’t really seem to be MAGA’s strong suit
Apparently not for each other, either.
There are none so blind as those who will not see???
M Carioti,
Suggest you check out fable for: Scorpion and Frog
I did check it out. Thanks for the reference. If that's really true, then what does that say about our future as a society (not just ours, but any society of humans)? Is that our ultimate destiny? If so, then all of this is just game-as-prelude. I'm not feeling any better, but I do appreciate your reminder of human nature. Can we ever be more than what's in our nature?
Understand, but sometimes I just need some kind of answer to all the reasonable, humane ideas you wrote. It’s interesting to me that an analysis of this fable actually mentioned politicians as an example!
At this point I’m fighting like hell against this garbage ( whatever I can do) and taking hope from lovely people like yourself and other good people on this post, my friends and Simon and Marc Macias, and,and or I would get depressed. I’m so glad I focused my anger and concerns and marched with thousands of people in the women’s March after dt got elected and then the millions who marched did eventually dump him out. The young voters/ activists inspire me now but you are so right; how do you explain nuts philosophies?
I’m also so glad there are leaders out there like Simon and others who don’t give up but keep informing and urging us “Forward”.
I’m with you on this one.
Of course we can be more. We are human beings. Human is only part of our nature. Being could be the higher element. Sadly we have 6000 years (or so?) of proof that human nature is violent, destructive, murderous, warlike and selfish beyond belief and beyond sustainability, though it has taken thousands of years to get to this cliff. (I love the scorpion/frog tale too; we should laminate it and send it to Congress!) So... is it then the end of this amazing experiment in Melting Pot Democracy? Very possibly. See Ben Franklin: A Republic, if you can keep it.
Love the picture/ laminate idea! Thanks for a real laugh today🤣
One might think that it is the Republican GOAL to make the Chinese Yuan the global currency instead of the dollar and to ensure that America has NO allies and certainly none who actually trust us ever again. (Sherlock Holmes: When you have eliminated the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.) It boggles the mind. Is a theocratic authoritarian nation that important to them?
I love reading this stuff, especially when I am hyperventilating in a paper bag over 2024.
More needs to be said about D/WH lack of messaging around the economy/debt ceiling. This IS where Biden’s issues as a communicator come into play. Pete’s busy talking about travel this weekend but they need to get him and other surrogates out there making the case, now and going forward.
I totally get where you're coming from, but I have a slightly different theory of what's happening, and I could most certainly be wrong....but here's what I'm guessing:
Joe knew all along this was going to happen, so he started laying the ground work to rope-a-dope MAGA into negotiating the BUDGET now by being willing to negotiate with them over the debt ceiling, where he would have a much stronger hand and more leverage than this fall when the budget would normally be negotiated. This gives him the best possible chance to avoid both a default AND the inevitable government shutdown that they would impose on us later in the year, and give him the chance to demand as part of the agreement that this debt ceiling raise is good for two full years of spending, so that we don't go through this again next year.
The reason why I think they didn't go to the mattresses with PR on this is because the public is exhausted with Washington drama and barely understands what the debt ceiling is, which means it will be easier for the Rs to deceive them than it will be for Ds to educate them.....so, if Joe can negotiate a deal that isn't too bad that we can fix after re-taking the house, then we can protect the investments from last year and give the economy the best chance to continue growing and thriving rather than fall into recession and the public basically will go on with their lives rather than get roped up into another "Both Sides Pie Fight" narrative that the traditional media will report and controversy that MAGA will cook up. Joe knows that there are still 100 or more Rs in the house who actually know that a default would be catastrophic and truly needs to be avoided, so if he can broker a deal that gives them the appearance they want of meaningful spending cuts while maneuvering those cuts with creative accounting over a long enough period of time that the vast majority of our priorities aren't really sacrificed, everybody wins, but we win the most because there was never a major public disaster that Joe might easily have been blamed for......
NOW....why try to keep it low key in the lead up? Because, if a deal can't be struck (which I think would include Ds saving Kevin McCarthy's Speakership to offset the votes he would lose form the crazy caucus), then at the last minute Joe could then take unilateral action and say, "I'm unwilling to allow America to default on its debts and create a global financial meltdown." At that moment in time, we would have the ABSOLUTE upper hand in the PR battle.....we wouldn't be in default at least for some time because Joe would be justifying the treasury continuing to pay our bills on legal theory based on constitutionality. This would be challenged in court, and would no doubt be taken all the way to the SCOTUS.......but, all that time we could be educating the public as to what a default would mean, and repeat that Joe negotiated in good faith and the Rs wouldn't make an agreement that could pass both houses of congress, leaving Joe with no options other than to default or take unilateral action to protect the American people from the effects of a default brought on by Congress failing to perform their duties. At that point, the SCOTUS would literally have to ORDER Joe Biden to default on the nation's debts, because there was no alternative......he never received a bill that he could sign or veto.....he was just left to either keep paying the bills or default. If SCOTUS orders him to default because they deem he doesn't have the constitutional authority to act unilaterally, it will either put ENORMOUS pressure on every sane member of congress to get a debt ceiling hike passed before the default, OR....the Republicans will 100% OWN the default because Joe fought like hell to prevent it from day one and only surrendered by an order from the same SCOTUS that rolled back Roe v Wade.
Now....I'd much prefer to not default and just head into next year with a booming economy, but if there's no way out, I sure as hell want to win the message war, and our chances of doing so are WAYYYYY better AFTER Joe would have to take unilateral action and be sued over it than to try to do it now when nobody really understands what the debt ceiling is, why its important, and what it would mean to not raise it.
So....maybe I'm wrong, but I think this has all been a quite deliberate game of 3D Chess by Joe and his team to trick Republicans into negotiating a budget that will hold until the election AND raise the debt ceiling for long enough that we won't have to revisit it again until after the election, therefore avoiding both a default AND a government shutdown later, and positioning himself to clobber them in the message war if they don't play ball. I'm actually pretty optimistic, but I also knew that there would be consequences to MAGA winning back the house, even with the narrow margin that they got.....so, I'm buckled in and ready for what they throw at us, and I know for sure the best political tactician we've seen since Lyndon Johnson and some of the smartest people on planet Earth are on the case.
Yep, I understand that analysis and I think it may well be right about what the WH did and why. I just think they are wrong. My views on this go all the way back to the campaign where every once in a while a campaign guy was, I’m sure, directed to call or text me, to humor me. I appreciated the communications and felt sorry for him and his short straw! But he made it to the WH and is doing a good job there.
As to the debt limit, there has never been any reason for Biden to allow a default to happen and I don’t believe he would have done so. The 14th amendment, as I’ve written here, has always been available; I’ve even written here how mechanically you would trigger it. If he hadn’t used it to avoid a default, neither history nor the American voting public would have ever forgiven him, and his presidency would effectively be over with all the disaster that would entail. Hopefully we will actually get a pretty good deal.
Thanks again for your thoughtful views. I very much appreciate them and, as I say, you might well be right!
Thank you, I enjoy your analysis as well! Let’s just say I hope I’m right, and not for my own ego… This is the path they have taken, so I hope that it works out to everyone’s highest good. #FingersCrossed 🤞🤞
I’m just a hack who follows this stuff in my spare time when I’m not fishing for tips while I play and sing songs… You on the other hand appear to have a lot of pretty legitimate experience. Please tell me about what you have done professionally in this arena 🙂
Thanks, I’m about to go to bed, but to respond to you kind request— I spent a career in Washington public policy, law and a bit of lobbying. Decades ago, I worked for 18 years in the government, including subcabinet political positions during the 4 years of the Carter Administration and 6 years for Reagan— yep, not a typo. I was then senior Vice President and general counsel of a major trade association for 20 years, then a partner in a Washington law firm. But my views are no better than yours, and maybe not as good! Cheers.
Well, I’ll always look forward to what you think about what’s going on....thanks Craig!
Views are not better or worse, just views. But yours are particularly experienced and I always appreciate hearing from someone with relevant background. (I would have put money on PianoMan having relevant background as well so...there's that. I do like logical thinkers!)
From your lips to their ears! I certainly hope you are right. Because this would be brilliant.
But if Joe is playing 3d chess, GOP is still playing Russian roulette.
(You think Biden is the best tactician since LBJ and I do agree that's probable; he's got the Senate experience LBJ had and that seems to be a huge help; it was an Obama weakness.)
I feel like he is using Lincoln as his guide (the only president I know of who faced a threat to our constitutional system comparable to right now)......he has extreme executive options to deploy, but can’t risk using them until and unless he literally has no other alternatives and is sure that he can convince the American People of that because of the brazenness and dangerous recklessness that MAGA is demonstrating.......
I think about this a lot, and I think the greatest challenge Biden has is that he’s staving off an autocratic authoritarian threat, which of course means the threat of an all powerful radical executive who doesn’t have any checks on his control.....so it’s tricky to explain to the public why you have to act unilaterally and circumvent the checks of a coequal branch of government in order to protect the nation from an authoritarian.....if you do it too early and there’s not a complete enough understanding of the threat they are posing then you end up looking like the authoritarian and the right wing noise machine will pummel you into the ground with it. But if you have the restraint to wait and negotiate and exhaust every conceivable option first and then finally take unilateral action knowing that it will go to the courts, you’re in a much better position to win this public debate about why it was necessary and the court will either destroy MAGA and exonerate Biden by ordering a catastrophe or just exonerate Biden by ruling what MAGA was doing as unconstitutional.
It’s scary stuff having to let them push us so close to the brink of ruin, but if we don’t win the public debate on this as well as the long term electoral and policy battles, our coalition will fracture and our victories won’t hold. Finger crossed 🤞!!!
It is very scary stuff. And I have a tendency toward cynicism anyway (if you expect the worst you are seldom disappointed). I so hope you are correct about this. It makes sense. And it is hard to be that patient in the face of all the screaming faces. But that's why he is there!
(Someone wrote this week that if Trump died Democrats would pressure Biden to retire and open the field; I think if Trump died Biden would retire and that he is running because of his understanding of how dangerous this time is and how unqualified most of DC is to deal with it. I fear he won't survive it but I so admire his willingness to be there at the end of a life of service to the Republic.)
Yup:agree.🤞🏻🤞🏻
I think JB is “dumb as a fox”
Glad he negotiated a deal, shocking many. He keeps being underestimated and then delivers.
I really loved reading Newt Gingriche’s (!!)article about our POTUS, warning the GOP about him. After seeing all Simons data Newts nightmare is coming true. It’s a tough, tough situation but I’m so proud of how our Democratic leaders are fighting back at all levels especially Senators at weaponization committes, Marc Elias/group on Democracy Docket, Simon in building an army of informed, engaged supporters, the bare- fisted Lincoln Project, the Youth Rising, the united Dem Attorney Generals. The list goes on and on. Dems on the March. No guarantees but feels good to work hard, together, following amazing, strong, leaders determined to prevent autocratic rule and to keep our democracy.
I agree with everything Simon said, but I would have tried to make your point… if you hadn’t made it so well first. So, thank you. There are three parts to this problem— The first is Biden, who is not a gifted orator. Except when he really rehearses, which he apparently hates to do. Take his speech at the White House Correspondents dinner. It was well written and very well delivered. Since he did it there, he can do it everywhere.
The second is, as you point out there’s no second level advocacy on the domestic side. Cabinet members were picked for the most part to be corporate managers of their departments; that was a colossal mistake. The Deputy Secretary is suppose to run the agency; the Secretary needs to be an inspiring and tough minded advocate. Can you imagine what it would have been like to have had Jamie Raskin as Attorney General, rather than Marrick Garland?!
The third problem is the White House staff; while they are generally superior folks, they’ve been tasked to concentrate on the inside game. They need to concentrate on Biden and Harris connecting with the public. No one apparently has the courage to tell him that he’s not. So, to get back to your point, Biden needs to speak well - not just loud - and it is the staff’s duty to make sure he does. I’m told they try and can’t get him to rehearse. My response— Nancy got Ronnie to do it; Michele got Barack to do it; Jill can get Joe to do it. Nothing is so important to the success of a presidency than the president connecting with the public, taking the public into the president’s confidence.
Millions of Americans are pulling for Biden— he has accomplished so much…. But most people have no idea. It’s time that got turned around. If you do something good and no one knows you did it, you didn’t do it.
Maybe we should all send him a postcard that says "Dammit, Joe, you're not paying attention!"
McCarthy and republicans are doing exactly what Trump wants, because Trump is driving the whole thing. Everything they say and do has Trump’s signature “burn it all down” attitude. He tried to destroy not just the government, but all of America on 1/6/21. It didn’t work so he’s manipulating republicans to do it this way, and they don’t appear to have a clue. All they care about is the praise of a seriously mentally disturbed lifelong criminal who knows he’s very likely going to prison at some point, so what does he care?
It occurred to me yesterday reading Politico (you will probably think I'm slow on the uptake...) that this is in no way Governance nor even chess or checkers (nor is it a game): this is Russian roulette!
Steve Schmidt wrote this week that McCarthy has never shown any ability to land any legislative deal — not in California and not in Congress. All he has done is work for himself and a title. Doesn't exactly define "leadership." But he is playing roulette with MAGA guns all pointed at his head. You almost feel sorry for him.
I will never understand Republicans clear hatred for America and Americans and democracy. Clear hatred for children and seniors and the disadvantaged. They can't all be both obtuse and obdurate, can they?
Thanks, Simon, for helping keep us coherent and giving us hope that we may have some influence in the political arena (though I don't really believe it at this stage).