People are indeed spending. I ate at a nice restaurant with friends and noted that the place was packed. Most were average looking folks, not business people.
"The annual deficit is trillions less than when Biden came to office". Seems to be an overstatement. Better to say "about a trillion less", which is still huge.
Thanks Simon for all you are doing to keep our energies up and motivated! There are so many pro-democracy organizations now which is “MEGA”-inspiring!!! Here is one that has the slogan “build a democracy habit.”
As one who retired from Maine to NC in 2014 because of family, I have been completely engaged in the county and state Dem party. Anderson and her team are a breath of fresh air and injection of much-needed energy in state leadership. Extremely dedicated and hardworking volunteers have been working continuously throughout our county and state and will continue to be deeply engaged. None of us wants to repeat the experience of what we saw coming by 10 PM on election night 2016! Or other losses since at both county and state levels.
I refer many that I encounter on other Substack newsletters as great information to make one that is committed to the "Blue State" and to rebut comments about President Biden's age, to Hopium. I suggest that this is where one can educate one's self with facts that we aren't necessarily hearing in main stream news commentary. It is always well received and others echo what and where I'm asking they go to hear, to learn and to be able to explain. Your Hopium is truly helpful and does give hope which is what we all need!
Simon -- I just want to highlight what you've been doing -- overdrive! -- recently:
"For more on this argument about Trump, and my optimism about 2024, check out my political overview in our January gathering this week; in a major post on Monday and another from yesterday; my recent MSNBC op-ed and Morning Joe appearance; in a new Ezra Klein NYT podcast, The Strongest Democratic Party Any Of Us Has Ever Seen; and an a long and comprehensive interview with Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC Wednesday night (below). I also appeared in articles this week in The New Republic, USA Today and two in The Guardian (here, here)."
Deep thanks and admiration for all your efforts. Its paying off big time-- the latest example is Gavin Newsom's interview on Alex Wagner (MSNBC). I heard him using your arguments and words. He was so effective, genuine, really great job -- made me proud of my governor. And he's out campaigning everywhere -- happily making very clear its not for himself but for Biden/Harris/Dems. He's not the only one -- by far -- who's listening to and taking advantage of your seasoned reasoning and strategies.
You are helping us learn how to be the best warriors we can be. I'm on my own little stump everywhere -- with friends, family, others I come across. And I can tell its making a difference in motivating some folks, getting them to think twice about information and the negative loops that can trap us. We don't have to convince everyone -- not the first time we try, maybe not ever -- but enough people to make the difference. It's incredibly energizing and satisfying work.
Thank you so much Alexandra for this warm note. I am working hard, but we all are. It's what we need to do. And yes, Gavin is a good friend and avid Hopium reader. I get notes from him from time to time about posts....he is great, and I love seeing him out there. To me he's always been one of the smartest and best people I've worked with. Need to get him scheduled to come talk to all of us. Thanks for the note and keep working hard!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Daily Kos writers are using your info heavily as well; we need to reach the folks there who are upset over Gaza and the border, who are convinced those two issues will cost us the election; an often used argument is that youth are calling him Genocide Joe and won't vote for him no matter what, and blue states like IL and NY are drifting away due to the immigrant crisis. The economic naysayers have been silent as of late. Many there are also convinced trump will not be on the ballot and that Haley will beat Biden easily; I remind them she is for an abortion ban and raising SS to age 70. Not popular ideas. I want to point out The Atlantic has a few excellent articles on the Gaza issue which some of our friends on the far left need to see.
It gives so much confidence to the supporters of President Biden to have your information to back it up with "WHY"! Bolstering our confidence also is seeing your name sited in other publications, news stories and blogs along with your information. I am right with Alexander R !!!
I actually took a screen shot of the info here and texted it to various people, so they have the talking points. But it did make my BIL up in ME have a meltdown, because Biden is coming for his gunzz....just as Hillary was, and Obama was, and Kerry was.....
Great stuff as always Mr. Rosenberg! Just curious about your sense on this: Rs are feeling weak right now with a diminished majority in the House, and Trump underperforming but with a systemic structure that is all but certain to hand him the nomination anyway. Do you feel like this weakness will make it more likely we can force through a border/defense supplemental or more likely that they huddle together for Custer’s Last Stand? I feel good about where we are on the politics of the situation....just not sure yet if there’s a way to get the actual important governing done. Interested in your perspective. Thanks!
I love daydreaming about Biden’s ‘cool as a cucumber’ strategy & it will be interesting to watch play out. Especially with you Steve and this great group.
I bet the border bill will pass. When is a question. But it just feels like R’s Must fall line, cuz they are getting so much push back, in congress, in districts, in media, Abott and SCOTUS defiance. Abott looks like a barbarian! Senate and leaders from both houses have been working on it. And tRump is weaker and weaker each week.
This seems like a seismic shift building to maybe Biden’s State of Union, where he congratulates the Bipartisan Boarder Bill passing and unites some faction of normie or frustrated R’s and remind Americans how ‘We love converts.’ Biden would essentially dunk on the R carcass and we can hope something better for democracy will rise from the ashes. But it will be a incredible example of wise political leadership by Biden that most will never know the strings he pulled to accomplish it. Humble, empathetic, faithful, steadfast, exemplary Biden!
I noted Ezra's complaint about what he characterizes as President Biden's lack of energy, and its reflection therefrom downward into his campaign organization.
I think it's erroneous to interpret President Biden's public posture this way. He's been busy. The kind of sensitive back-channel conversations he's engaging in, by nature (Ukraine and Israel), can't be overly delegated, and must remain somewhat covert. I believe most of us understand that, and are willing to "let Biden be Biden," because it's working.
I wonder sometimes what these folks are thinking re: Biden's energy. I see him take an overnight to the middle east, conduct non-stop extremely important negotiations and meetings for a couple of days, fly back and that night address the American people. I mean, my kids in their forties (and grandkids in their teens) talk for days about jet lag after a long trip. We should all be so lucky to have that his energy!
Ezra’s framing for the interview - “Simon tell us why Joe Biden is not a problematic candidate” was strange and indicative of the NYT concern trolling starting point for all its coverage and content. Ezra never asked “OK on the other side what are the issues with Trump as a nominee.” Super disappointing (I was a big EK fan when he was at Vox). Loved the end when Simon literally called BS on it only wish he had done it as the start of the interview (which is what I think needs to happen for all of us dealing with this framing problem).
There’s no lack of opinionators from time to time, serving up crap like Klein did. If they don’t push something negative, they may not get clicks. Tried listening and overcome by nausea. Their garbage is cheap and they show up almost everywhere including, disappointingly, some shows on MSNBC.
Look here for insightful comment on why not everyone is feeling the improved economy.
In Robert Reich's Saturday coffee klatch today with Heather L, Ro Khanna US Rep, CA 17, adds some simple and useful nuance to the economy message that might help to bring in some of the people you label as "still wandering in our coalition." This starts at about the 9 minute mark in the video. The point Khanna makes that I think is valuable in the economic argument in favor of Pres Biden is that while so many measures indicate that the economy has improved because of Biden's policies and efforts, the deep well of neglect of the middle class has accumulated over decades and has been 50 years in the making. It's going to take more time for more people to actually feel it in their quality of living. I highly recommend listening to Ro Khanna (~9 min. mark; HEY & at ~12 min. mark, Khanna recommends taking a page from FDR's famous 1936 speech).
I agree. I don't think what transpired during Clinton and Obama administrations is the point.
The point is what some people call "the hollowing out of the middle class since Reagan", which was fought by Democratic president inbetween (ACA, etc.).
And now I'm getting out over my skis. Hope you have time to listen to Ro Khanna on Robert Reich today.
I would agree that some things have been hollowed out.....pensions, mainly. The 401k is mostly a failure; the only people I know who do well with them are financial professionals and their spouses! OTOH, my father's generation, fresh from WW 2, were happy to have a union job and a house with one or two baths and maybe a small garage and eat-in kitchen ( like the one I grew up in during the 70s in NJ ). They would have thought these houses young people are buying today are palatial. I lived in such a post WW 2 house in NJ in the 90s...no garage, eat in kitchen, living room, slab foundation, and one bathroom. I rebuilt it in 2006 just before the crash, but now houses in my area are mainly bought and demolished to make way for huge houses, with 2 car garages and cathedral ceilings. The young couples simply throw good toys in the garbage as their kids grow. And they work from home. So I'm not sure what is middle class these days but these folks would have been considered well off in 1970, but I'll bet they do not feel that way now.
Since both parties spend a lot of time trying to get votes from that particular group ( they are not really worried much about the poor, who don't vote as much for a lot of reasons, and there aren't enough wealthy voters to make up a majority ) it is hard to argue they have been neglected. Years ago I read a whole book about this, and I'l be damned if I can remember the author's name, but her main thesis was that these are indeed the most important voters as far as the pols are concerned. It seems that "some" politicians in one party have been pretty good at siphoning those votes from us using wedge issues, culture wars, and racism ( think the infamous Willie Horton ad )
Fair enough question. According to US Treasury, deficits were as follows: FY 2023 1.7T, FY 2022 1.4T, FY 2021 2.8T, and FY 2020 3.1 T. So if you measure from the peak year, the annual deficit is $1.4 trillion less. Which is still a huge number.
In respect of Flip NY-3, the postcards going out all say that early voting starts Feb. 3. Is that incorrect?
Pretty sure Absentees are coming back already, and in person early voting begins on the 3rd.
Thanks.
As far as I know on my postcard instructions it says-- early voting Feb 3-11.
Early Voting usually refers to in-person early voting. Absentee ballot or Vote by Mail are used when you request a ballot be mailed to you.
We're past the deadline to request a absentee ballot, but the returned ballots are beginning to roll in.
Thanks Cheryl. Does NY start counting absentee ballots as soon as they come in? It's an excellent idea, but fairly rare from what I understand.
Dave, I had similar question about Florida during Tom Keen’s election when they were reporting mail-in ballot results. ⬇️
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin
Thanks Kathy. That's great information to have.
I remember the Obama re-election time when it didn’t look like he’d have a second term so hang in their, peeps, and work hard like we did then‼️
People are indeed spending. I ate at a nice restaurant with friends and noted that the place was packed. Most were average looking folks, not business people.
"The annual deficit is trillions less than when Biden came to office". Seems to be an overstatement. Better to say "about a trillion less", which is still huge.
Victor, show me your math.....
Thanks Simon for all you are doing to keep our energies up and motivated! There are so many pro-democracy organizations now which is “MEGA”-inspiring!!! Here is one that has the slogan “build a democracy habit.”
It’s: grassrootsofdemocracy.com
Anyone is welcome to join us. We are all doing the work!! Democracy Strong!!
As one who retired from Maine to NC in 2014 because of family, I have been completely engaged in the county and state Dem party. Anderson and her team are a breath of fresh air and injection of much-needed energy in state leadership. Extremely dedicated and hardworking volunteers have been working continuously throughout our county and state and will continue to be deeply engaged. None of us wants to repeat the experience of what we saw coming by 10 PM on election night 2016! Or other losses since at both county and state levels.
Yes, Anderson is amazing, and I am really excited that we can help her win this year.
Simon, your articles are so informative, instructive, and they provide great avenues for action. Many thanks!
Thanks Ann! Glad you are part of this wonderful community.....
I refer many that I encounter on other Substack newsletters as great information to make one that is committed to the "Blue State" and to rebut comments about President Biden's age, to Hopium. I suggest that this is where one can educate one's self with facts that we aren't necessarily hearing in main stream news commentary. It is always well received and others echo what and where I'm asking they go to hear, to learn and to be able to explain. Your Hopium is truly helpful and does give hope which is what we all need!
NFL Playoffs are here! Check this infographic of how President Biden and Trump would fare in a virtual Super Bowl.
"Super Bowl Winners And Losers. Biden 10 - Trump 0."
https://thedemlabs.org/2024/01/27/super-bowl-winners-and-losers-biden-10-trump-0/
Love this! Thanks for sharing.
Simon -- I just want to highlight what you've been doing -- overdrive! -- recently:
"For more on this argument about Trump, and my optimism about 2024, check out my political overview in our January gathering this week; in a major post on Monday and another from yesterday; my recent MSNBC op-ed and Morning Joe appearance; in a new Ezra Klein NYT podcast, The Strongest Democratic Party Any Of Us Has Ever Seen; and an a long and comprehensive interview with Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC Wednesday night (below). I also appeared in articles this week in The New Republic, USA Today and two in The Guardian (here, here)."
Deep thanks and admiration for all your efforts. Its paying off big time-- the latest example is Gavin Newsom's interview on Alex Wagner (MSNBC). I heard him using your arguments and words. He was so effective, genuine, really great job -- made me proud of my governor. And he's out campaigning everywhere -- happily making very clear its not for himself but for Biden/Harris/Dems. He's not the only one -- by far -- who's listening to and taking advantage of your seasoned reasoning and strategies.
You are helping us learn how to be the best warriors we can be. I'm on my own little stump everywhere -- with friends, family, others I come across. And I can tell its making a difference in motivating some folks, getting them to think twice about information and the negative loops that can trap us. We don't have to convince everyone -- not the first time we try, maybe not ever -- but enough people to make the difference. It's incredibly energizing and satisfying work.
Thank you so much Alexandra for this warm note. I am working hard, but we all are. It's what we need to do. And yes, Gavin is a good friend and avid Hopium reader. I get notes from him from time to time about posts....he is great, and I love seeing him out there. To me he's always been one of the smartest and best people I've worked with. Need to get him scheduled to come talk to all of us. Thanks for the note and keep working hard!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Daily Kos writers are using your info heavily as well; we need to reach the folks there who are upset over Gaza and the border, who are convinced those two issues will cost us the election; an often used argument is that youth are calling him Genocide Joe and won't vote for him no matter what, and blue states like IL and NY are drifting away due to the immigrant crisis. The economic naysayers have been silent as of late. Many there are also convinced trump will not be on the ballot and that Haley will beat Biden easily; I remind them she is for an abortion ban and raising SS to age 70. Not popular ideas. I want to point out The Atlantic has a few excellent articles on the Gaza issue which some of our friends on the far left need to see.
It gives so much confidence to the supporters of President Biden to have your information to back it up with "WHY"! Bolstering our confidence also is seeing your name sited in other publications, news stories and blogs along with your information. I am right with Alexander R !!!
I actually took a screen shot of the info here and texted it to various people, so they have the talking points. But it did make my BIL up in ME have a meltdown, because Biden is coming for his gunzz....just as Hillary was, and Obama was, and Kerry was.....
Donated again to Tom! Let’s get my island back in the blue !!!
thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wonderful way to end an intense week with good news for us.
Great stuff as always Mr. Rosenberg! Just curious about your sense on this: Rs are feeling weak right now with a diminished majority in the House, and Trump underperforming but with a systemic structure that is all but certain to hand him the nomination anyway. Do you feel like this weakness will make it more likely we can force through a border/defense supplemental or more likely that they huddle together for Custer’s Last Stand? I feel good about where we are on the politics of the situation....just not sure yet if there’s a way to get the actual important governing done. Interested in your perspective. Thanks!
I love daydreaming about Biden’s ‘cool as a cucumber’ strategy & it will be interesting to watch play out. Especially with you Steve and this great group.
I bet the border bill will pass. When is a question. But it just feels like R’s Must fall line, cuz they are getting so much push back, in congress, in districts, in media, Abott and SCOTUS defiance. Abott looks like a barbarian! Senate and leaders from both houses have been working on it. And tRump is weaker and weaker each week.
This seems like a seismic shift building to maybe Biden’s State of Union, where he congratulates the Bipartisan Boarder Bill passing and unites some faction of normie or frustrated R’s and remind Americans how ‘We love converts.’ Biden would essentially dunk on the R carcass and we can hope something better for democracy will rise from the ashes. But it will be a incredible example of wise political leadership by Biden that most will never know the strings he pulled to accomplish it. Humble, empathetic, faithful, steadfast, exemplary Biden!
About the Ezra Klein broadcast:
I noted Ezra's complaint about what he characterizes as President Biden's lack of energy, and its reflection therefrom downward into his campaign organization.
I think it's erroneous to interpret President Biden's public posture this way. He's been busy. The kind of sensitive back-channel conversations he's engaging in, by nature (Ukraine and Israel), can't be overly delegated, and must remain somewhat covert. I believe most of us understand that, and are willing to "let Biden be Biden," because it's working.
I wonder sometimes what these folks are thinking re: Biden's energy. I see him take an overnight to the middle east, conduct non-stop extremely important negotiations and meetings for a couple of days, fly back and that night address the American people. I mean, my kids in their forties (and grandkids in their teens) talk for days about jet lag after a long trip. We should all be so lucky to have that his energy!
Ezra’s framing for the interview - “Simon tell us why Joe Biden is not a problematic candidate” was strange and indicative of the NYT concern trolling starting point for all its coverage and content. Ezra never asked “OK on the other side what are the issues with Trump as a nominee.” Super disappointing (I was a big EK fan when he was at Vox). Loved the end when Simon literally called BS on it only wish he had done it as the start of the interview (which is what I think needs to happen for all of us dealing with this framing problem).
There’s no lack of opinionators from time to time, serving up crap like Klein did. If they don’t push something negative, they may not get clicks. Tried listening and overcome by nausea. Their garbage is cheap and they show up almost everywhere including, disappointingly, some shows on MSNBC.
Look here for insightful comment on why not everyone is feeling the improved economy.
In Robert Reich's Saturday coffee klatch today with Heather L, Ro Khanna US Rep, CA 17, adds some simple and useful nuance to the economy message that might help to bring in some of the people you label as "still wandering in our coalition." This starts at about the 9 minute mark in the video. The point Khanna makes that I think is valuable in the economic argument in favor of Pres Biden is that while so many measures indicate that the economy has improved because of Biden's policies and efforts, the deep well of neglect of the middle class has accumulated over decades and has been 50 years in the making. It's going to take more time for more people to actually feel it in their quality of living. I highly recommend listening to Ro Khanna (~9 min. mark; HEY & at ~12 min. mark, Khanna recommends taking a page from FDR's famous 1936 speech).
While I understand this argument, I don't think the middle class was neglected under either Clinton or Obama.
I agree. I don't think what transpired during Clinton and Obama administrations is the point.
The point is what some people call "the hollowing out of the middle class since Reagan", which was fought by Democratic president inbetween (ACA, etc.).
And now I'm getting out over my skis. Hope you have time to listen to Ro Khanna on Robert Reich today.
I would agree that some things have been hollowed out.....pensions, mainly. The 401k is mostly a failure; the only people I know who do well with them are financial professionals and their spouses! OTOH, my father's generation, fresh from WW 2, were happy to have a union job and a house with one or two baths and maybe a small garage and eat-in kitchen ( like the one I grew up in during the 70s in NJ ). They would have thought these houses young people are buying today are palatial. I lived in such a post WW 2 house in NJ in the 90s...no garage, eat in kitchen, living room, slab foundation, and one bathroom. I rebuilt it in 2006 just before the crash, but now houses in my area are mainly bought and demolished to make way for huge houses, with 2 car garages and cathedral ceilings. The young couples simply throw good toys in the garbage as their kids grow. And they work from home. So I'm not sure what is middle class these days but these folks would have been considered well off in 1970, but I'll bet they do not feel that way now.
Since both parties spend a lot of time trying to get votes from that particular group ( they are not really worried much about the poor, who don't vote as much for a lot of reasons, and there aren't enough wealthy voters to make up a majority ) it is hard to argue they have been neglected. Years ago I read a whole book about this, and I'l be damned if I can remember the author's name, but her main thesis was that these are indeed the most important voters as far as the pols are concerned. It seems that "some" politicians in one party have been pretty good at siphoning those votes from us using wedge issues, culture wars, and racism ( think the infamous Willie Horton ad )
Fair enough question. According to US Treasury, deficits were as follows: FY 2023 1.7T, FY 2022 1.4T, FY 2021 2.8T, and FY 2020 3.1 T. So if you measure from the peak year, the annual deficit is $1.4 trillion less. Which is still a huge number.
More than one is plural....it is trillions....but i hear your admonition to be careful.
I'm in NC, not NY. But you got me curious, so ....
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin
But even in states that don't allow you to do anything much at all with the returned ballots, they probably report on the NUMBER of ballots returned.