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RemovedMay 13
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I admit it's pretty damn frustrating/infuriating, but I'm still not sure it's capturing everything. But here come the pouts of Mika Bresisnski, and the dramatic headlines! Breathing...

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Cohn has a narrative and he’s stuck to it. I’m not overly concerned about the NYT polling when Cohn has made clear his views on the election. When Biden wins all these states, Cohn will have some gaslighting and pretend like he was right all along. Just like he has done with every primary when trump underperformed the polling by double digits. No amount of evidence is going to move Cohn off his narrative.

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Funny how many data people have changed their tune & seem to stubbornly stick to their narratives even when there is evidence to the contrary... Hopium and other outlets are teaching me not to take it personally lol

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deletedMay 11
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Kumar when you denigrate someone who many people here revere your argument is diminished and less effective. Do you want to try again?

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Bravo Biden! Bravo Simon! I probably can't leave the direct quote here as it is slightly bawdy and blue, but for a laugh google what David Sedaris had to say recently about undecided voters in this 2024 election. I cackled!!!

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I have no such qualms:

“On Undecided Voter​s: "To put them in perspective, I think​ of being​ on an airplane.​ The flight attendant comes​ down the aisle​ with her food cart and, eventually,​ parks​ it beside my seat.​ “Can I inter​est you in the chick​en?​” she asks.​ “Or would​ you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broke​n glass​ in it?”

– David Sedaris

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And

"Cake or death?"

I'll have the cake.

Cake or death?

Cake please.

Cake or death?

Cake.

Cake or death?

Cake.

Cake or death?

I'll have the cake.

I'm sorry. We''re out of cake.

Do you have any chicken?"

-Eddie Izzard-

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May 11Liked by Simon Rosenberg

It was great seeing and meeting you when you came to Phoenix. I hope that many other folks (especially in swing states) get to do that!

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Simon: I’m confident you agree that most polling 6 months out of Election Day is relatively worthless? Moreover, polling organizations do not explain how they poll 18-30 year olds? These potential voters do not have home telephones—none!zero! And they do not answer any of the many phone calls they get on their cell from a number they do not know— again none! Zero! Yet the evidence is clear they will vote D by a margin of plus 15% to 25% particularly since abortion is the predominant and personal issue in 2024! So how should we believe any of these so-called polls now? Thanks

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I do not agree actually. No polling is worthless. More data is better than less data. But polling is not predictive. It can only tell us what is happening today, not anything about tomorrow or six months from now. The polls weren't wrong in 2016. The election was changed at the end by Comey. Our election will change too. What I am reporting on is what I am seeing today. And yes good polls can poll young people. I've shared good polls of young people like the Harvard-IOP poll, or the Axios poll from a week ago. I'm writing because this whole idea that polls are worthless, or ignore polls, is in my mind a bit silly and not in keeping with the reality of our politics.

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I don’t disagree in general but the key margins of error are much bigger and less significant 6 mos out? In other words, in close elections reliance on those MOE six months out is relatively of little value as a function of predictability?

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RemovedMay 11
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What in the world are you talking about here Carl?

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I've taken this post down because it is just full of inaccurate and wildly unhelpful stuff.

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Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) polls are manipulating responders and the response itself.

Hang tight. I have to find the article that showed how. My summary of that, though true in some cases, does not do it justice, and the writer has more credibility than me.

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Yes indeed and even if they are not deliberately cooking the books as many R inspired smaller polls do, the results at this early date are inconclusive! I But I have no doubt whatsoever that younger women who realistically view abortions bans as their personal (as contrasted with “policy”) enemy! They will be the biggest factor in bringing younger men to vote with them! We saw that convincingly in 9 abortion factored elections in 2023 and pro-choice won every one of those beginning in ruby red Kansas! So that is definitive evidence of the power that will be multiplied by 2 or 3x in November! Count on it??

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May 11·edited May 11

Good pollsters really do try to poll accurately, and there are quite a few of them out there. Granted, low response rates, especially for some demographics such as young voters, are making both the polling and modelling increasingly challenging.

That said, there is a whole slew of "pollsters", mostly Republican leaning, who really are not in the business of polling. Their whole reason for existence is to influence the media narrative – and they have found an extremely cost-effective way of doing so!

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Bingo. Even the honest pollsters are really struggling to figure out the low response rates and weighting/modeling due to this issue. Even high quality polls need a grain of salt in this regard. It’s changed, even since 2016.

We see it in academic research all the time - even with incentives response rates are bad, real bad. Polling has a major issue and for some reason refuses to acknowledge it (the reason being $ - if pollsters admitted this problem they would make a lot less $). The primary results should be clueing people into this (despite the best gaslighting of Nate Cohn and his ilk) but it won’t be avoidable come November. But it will likely be glossed over then as well because our corporate media seems only capable of lazy horserace reporting and polls are the lifeblood of that type of “reporting.”

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May 13·edited May 13

I recently made a joke post – although fully serious – where I referred to the Wisconsin Presidential Primary as "a high-quality poll of 566,000 Wisconsin Republicans".

Media pundits, such as Nate Cohn, keep ignoring these "high-quality polls" (i.e. actual election results) in favor of actual low-sample polls, which as you point out have all sorts of inherent faults. Unfortunately, this greatly increases the danger that, when Republicans lose in a landslide in November (which is what I expect), the MAGA crowd will feel justified in screaming "STOLEN ELECTION!"

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I think I just said that polls cannot predict what is going to happen tomorrow or six months from now they can only tell us what is happening today; and that much is likely to change in the coming days and months, as they did in 2016 with Comey; in 2008 with the fall financial crisis; etc. And yes people are not really checked in now, which is also something that I believe will change the polls, and already have. As folks have checked in in recent months we've gained a few points.

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I'm not sure that most polls can even tell us what is going on today. Few have a large enough sample size to do that, unless the scope of the poll is very limited AND the design of the poll questioning itself is such that it provides a way to self-correct. Few do. Poll aggregation is kind of scary, because the quality is all over the place. Seeking trends can suggest current trends, but again, because of both quality issues AND the inherent uncertainties involved in all sampling, need to be read with a healthy sense of reservation. I agree that there is a trend in poll results that favors Biden, but I also believe that earlier polling gave an incorrect reading for Trump overall, because of sampling error. There has been a shift in how polling is being done (perhaps as a result of the deep - and deserved - skepticism of polling expressed by the public, and increasingly, the media.

Since Carl's original post was removed, I have no idea what he said that offended you so much, Simon, but I do think that the Pew article he linked to is well worth reading. It gives a good sense of how the kind of polls they do work, and how they are analyzed - along with their limitations, and how their polling differs from much of the polling done these days. Polling is hard to do well, and most is not done well at all. It's heartening to see the "approval rating" for Biden increasing, and I do think it is representative, based on other indicators that pollsters tend to ignore. I think the takeaway from the Pew article is that opinion polls may not be a good indicator of where we are right now.

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Love to see where the sample comes from and what age, genders, etc.

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Keep preachin' Simon. It's starting to rub off.

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BTW the Volpe poll of students is rarely or ever mentioned by MSM as well as the fact that legalization of weed is on the ballot in Fl and even in Nebraska where an interesting race for the Senate is developing with a union leader prochoice Indy is running vs an uninspiring R with no D on the ballot (weed plus abortion on the Nebraska ballot)!

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Ira, again, this is not true. John Della Volpe goes on Morning Joe all the time, and was on the Daily Show this week. The poll is frequently cited by analysts and commentators. It is the gold standard youth poll and is seen that way by the national media.

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Simon, you "letting it rip" made my weekend! Thank you so very much for methodically dissecting the foundational fakery of the R campaign, supported by skewed "polls" and unceasing lies. We will prevail in Roevember!!

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It seems like Trump would need a good ground game to get unlikely voters out this year, if indeed he is stronger with them, but his ground operation is in shambles. Has anyone ever considered how in 2020 Republicans knocked doors and Democrats largely did not, because of covid? Surely that affected things, and it may be the reverse dynamic this year.

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Brilliant and inspirational as alway, Simon. TY

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Dear Simon,

I am a big fan of you and the Chronicles -- you are doing an absolutely GREAT job: thank you!

An area I would greatly appreciate you addressing: election suppression and election subversion.

If there is enough skull-duggery in that area, could it defeat Biden's victory in general and in battleground states?/ And many other, related questions.

Thank you.

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May 11·edited May 11

If we here at Hopium, and all the other ground-level organizations and individuals who are doing their utmost to register voters, convince fence-sitting Democrats to vote Blue up and down the ticket, get Independents and Haley voters to vote for Biden, and GOTV for early voting and Election Day – then we’ll get to 55% and overcome all the skullduggery, voter suppression, cheating, crazy court challenges, and scattered refusal-to-certify our winning results.

A Blue Tsunami election will be impossible to steal!

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I agree 💯percent.

I'm volunteering with League of Women Voters, You Can Vote and Field Team 6 to register voters. The first two are non-partisan, but Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) makes no bones about being partisan with the tag line "Register Democrats; Save the World!" Check out this episode of Politics Girl to see an interview with Jason Berlin, founder of FT6:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVUsBHUBvS8

I have also volunteered with VoteRiders (www.voteriders.org) writing letters to voters in NC to inform them of the new Voter ID law and how to get help from VoteRiders to get an ID that will allow their vote to count. Here is an excellent "Tent Talk" from BigTent USA to learn more about VoteRiders: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl5okn8x6N8

And while you are at it, also check out this Spotlight Series presentation from Big Tent USA featuring Marc Elias (Democracy Docket) and Lauren Groh-Wargo (Fair Fight Action).

For GOTV activities there is Vote Forward (www.votefwd.org) for letters, Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) for multi-channel actions, Postcards To Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/), Blue Wave Postcard Movement (https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/) and Reclaim Our Vote (https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote) which focuses on BIPOC voters in the "Jim Crow" South.

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You’re impeccable, as always. That’s great information!

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Aw, thank you!

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💙💙💙

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Steve, I did address this today, in part. Trump and co wants you to be intimidated by their big plans to rig the election. Their announcements, bluster are themselves voter suppression/give up/nothing matters all is lost tactics. But a few thoughts:

1) we just have to go win the election by the biggest margin possible so none of their potential BS matters

2) there has been no successful cheating by Rs in the last few elections we've had

3) Dem govs oversee 5 of the 7 battleground states

4) I am skeptical at this point that this party that just keeps losing, who guy faces 88 felony indictments, is stuck in court all day, who isn't raising any money and not mounting a real campaign can pull off some big rigging/cheating in 2024. My posts over the last few days was to remind that these guys are bullshit artists who can't run two car funerals. We cannot give them powers they do not have - that's the whole point of my post today isn't it?

I'm not saying they won't try something but I just don't think it should be our focus here. Our focus here is to win the election by the biggest margin possible and get as many people to vote on Day 1 so that nothing they attempt matters. Folks are psyching themselves out on this stuff and I would encourage everyone to do more, worry less and just stay focused on winning the election in the ways we've been doing these last few years. I think a great deal of this is BS designed to knock us off our game and lose focus.

Simon

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One of the most powerful tactics we have to make it harder for them to pull anything is by building a national culture around Voting on Day 1. See below for more -

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/winning-ny-3-voting-on-day-1-and

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Simon, you were at the Summit, when FT 6 registered 11,000 North Carolina voters in one day. IMHO we can easily double the FT6 2022 results. I assume that the polls do not anticipate increases of new voters. Here's the link to the FT6 2002 results. https://www.fieldteam6.org/impact-report-2021-22-d1

We did not anticipate the abortion and marijuana issues added here in Florida, which IMHO makes us a swing state. I'm hoping that groups like Galvanize and Accelerate Change, deeply effective in psychology of swing states, set up here and in North Carolina.

https://www.galvanizeusa.org/

https://acceleratechange.org/

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Simon, this is exactly why I subscribe to Hopium. You help keep us on track and avoid getting sucked into the negativity trap that I see all too often in comments even on some of the forums I most value for accurate information.

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Steve, to add to all of the other comments so far - on a much more basic level, if Trump couldn't pull it off as "President" what makes you think he can do it as the former president ?! Everyone else has already answered with much better points, but in all honesty I think it's mostly bark, not bite. And remember these two words: Marc Elias. Keep calm and campaign on!

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If you haven't done so already, I highly recommend subscribing to Marc Elias's newsletter, Democracy Docket. He also has a You Tube Channel of the same name: https://www.youtube.com/@DemocracyDocket

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Oh I'm a regular watcher/reader/lister of Marc Elias. His dedication & updates got me through the subversion bullshit of late '20/early '21. His newsletter/show & podcast are so informative. Very happy he a d others like him are actively fighting back against voter suppression!

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Marc Elias at Democracy Docket <https://www.democracydocket.com/> and his group of lawyers are fighting daily to address the various Republican voting, registration and the alike shenanigans around the country. Marc has an impressive track record and is on the front lines (the courts) of this battle daily. Check out his site and donate if you are able to.

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And to just to add, Marc Elias and his team at Democracy Docket are actively arguing and challenging the very desperate bs you mention in the courts. Get their newsletter. But don’t let it freeze you. Get trained to be a poll worker and/ or encourage others to do so. Or register voters or if u have $ put it to work in a grassroots org. Do more worry less.

https://www.democracydocket.com/

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May 11Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Signed up for my first phone bank and calls to Wisconsin today. Trying to worry less and do more. Appreciate this community and the encouragement!

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thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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This:

“But part of our core project here at Hopium is to cut through all the right wing noise, bluster, ignorance and bullshit in our degraded daily discourse and find truth, reality, fact.”

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This week I got 2 people I know registered to vote for absentee ballot. They are blue all the way !!!

I'm working on a third one to register!!!!

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Woohoo!

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May 11·edited May 11

On the higher gas prices point, Dems can go on offense here. GOP is the party of oil price fixers.

Price-fixing (Texas Standard, 5/9/24):

https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/exxon-mobil-pioneer-oil-executive-scott-sheffield-barred-from-board-ftc-opec-collusion/

Trump proposes quid pro quo with fossil fuel industry (Washington Post, 5/9/24):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

It’s all out in the open, they don’t even bother to hide the corruption.

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May 11Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Simon, I wrote a post yesterday concerning Joe Biden’s leadership and his decision to withhold aid to Israel. You and others disagreed strongly and I am certainly open to other points of view. You made strong arguments and as an observer I’m open to an open debate. I also made an insulting comment about the college protesters which I agree was over the top. But just as you described today about republicans tearing down America the same could be said about many of the extreme left protesters. Their attacking America really angers me and that led to my denigrating comment. So I very much appreciate your unflinching patriotism and your comments about being grateful to be Americans. I share the same sentiment and get inspired when you talk so vociferously about loving our country. It seems these campus protesters are losing steam and once summer begins I hope they tear down their tents and go home. Concerning President Biden’s leadership skills there’s an article in today’s NYT describing Biden’s difficult path which led to his decision to withhold bombs from Israel. I must admit that descriptions of Biden’s actions behind the scenes which don’t get much attention act as a foil to my concerns. I’m going to withhold my emotional reactions and try to get on board with your optimism.

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