Jul 27, 2023·edited Jul 28, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg
Just donated to help make sure the people of Ohio don't lose their freedom to vote, and with it every other one of the other freedoms we all hold sacred—especially the freedom to decide if, when, or how to start or grow our families.
Vote No on Issue 1, and if you can't vote because you're not an OH resident, then donate or dial to help turn out high-potential voters who share your values!
We beat them back in 2018, 2020 and 2022...and we _can_ again, to stop MAGA Republicans from forcing minority rule for the wealthy, well-connected few over the rest of us.
Caveat: I'm totally in favor of working hard to register and turn out young people. However, we can't assume that additional young people who are to be registered at the margins, will turn out at the same rate or support us to the same extent as those already registered. Those who take the trouble to get registered (even considering easy voter registration through driver's license process) are much more likely to be attuned and motivated by key issues, than those who have yet not.
James, a few things here: 1) you need to produce data to back this up. You may be right, but without data it's just spitballing. 2) So let's say turnout rate of larger youth voter pool is 82% rather than 85% but it's 10m more voters. We still pick up millions of votes. So, am not really with you here, and think you are missing the point.
Actually I would say you are the one making an assumption Simon. And the burden is on you to show that at the margins additional youth voters would behave the same. That actually runs counter to the may most human behavior works. Think of early adopters etc. I agree there is great potential here both for turnout and vote share, as I alluded to in my first sentence, and do work to help that effort, so I am with you on the main point. But I think we need a good precision of thought. And I also think it matters where and among whom increased voter registration occurs.
There is a mountain of data to back up my point James. We know from research that once someone registers they become more likely to vote, as is born out by Laura Brill's research on young people. We also know that until they are registered they are not touched by campaign field operations or even paid social media. So another reason people once registered turnout in higher numbers is that until they are registered they are not contacted by campaigns.
All supporting our agreement that these efforts are worthwhile. But not addressing that those newly registered will behave the same as the select group that have gone to the trouble of already getting registered. One thing that can help us in this regard is when registration efforts are packaged along with voting education, as they often are.
Finally, I will make my last point again - even if there is a lower turnout by a few percentage points in a larger pool, creating more voters who are +15, +30 Dem creates lots more voters for us. There is no downside here, and it all has the additional benefit of getting the general election field operations up and running now, getting the kinks out etc.
The analog to this is with Hispanic voters. Even if we are getting a few points less with Hispanics because their numbers in the electorate are growing we are actually getting more net Hispanic votes than ever before. A slightly smaller slice of a bigger pie is still more pie.
The media likes to paint our country as split in half, when in reality, the overwhelming majority of Americans share progressive values (common sense gun safety, reproductive freedom, equity and justice, etc.). That binary, conflict-driven narrative flattens reality into falsely-equivalent both sides-ism.
In fact, more Americans voted in 2020 than any other Presidential election in 120 years—and that was in the middle of a pandemic(!). Moreover, a record 81 million voters supported Biden (8 million more than Tr*mp), whereas the second biggest number in the election was 80 million: the number of eligible Americans who didn't vote.
Of those 80 million people who stayed home, 70% were not registered to vote in 2020!
And this finding from an analysis on nonvoters totally reinforces your points: "While nonvoters and voters share similar views on a number of issues, nonvoters are on average younger, less likely to be employed full-time or have a college degree and more likely to consider themselves politically independent. The survey showed that the majority of nonvoters are White, like the majority of voters, but a quarter are Hispanic—a significant difference from the 7% of voters who identify as Hispanic."
I have written at least 90 cards to OH voters. On to phonebanking! The discussion of the surge in pro-democracy activism reminds me of what Japanese leaders said after they bombed Pearl Harbor - we have waken a sleeping giant. That’s what the insurrection and loss of national right to abortion have accomplished in our time.
SMASH this link and DONATE if you have any extra!!! If not, sign up to phonebank. At Simon’s interview with David they had 11%! Now at 70%! It would be Awesome to have it Topped Off 100% plus before days end! That would push NO VOTES in all weekend in this unAmerican play for minority R control in Ohio!
Share Simon’s and David’s links. We are United for Ohio and democracy in every state! Let’s GO!!!!!!!!
“ALL the good things that happen to us, come from confronting the bad things and moving forward. That’s the progress. And sometimes it takes time. And sometimes it is just ONE step at a time and one baton.....”
Wisdom from this clip of Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin discussing Biden’s speech last night at Truman Library. Real history in this that supports our HOPIUM philosophy here. Enjoy
I donated and I am so glad I did. Take the time to listen to this-it is excellent. It will make you energized, proud, a bit scared, empowered and ready to fight on because things are better with Democrats. Thanks Simon for another great event!
Anxious to hear this because I could not attend.
yes i have already made some calls into Ohio. I will be doing more up through Aug 8.
If you haven’t read pepper’s Laboratories of Autocracy, do so.
Just donated to help make sure the people of Ohio don't lose their freedom to vote, and with it every other one of the other freedoms we all hold sacred—especially the freedom to decide if, when, or how to start or grow our families.
Vote No on Issue 1, and if you can't vote because you're not an OH resident, then donate or dial to help turn out high-potential voters who share your values!
We beat them back in 2018, 2020 and 2022...and we _can_ again, to stop MAGA Republicans from forcing minority rule for the wealthy, well-connected few over the rest of us.
Just donated and am finishing up another batch of letters for Vote Forward.
Donated! And I will be calling as much as I can!
Let’s crush this family!
This is required listening! Super informative show on several levels. Very encouraging and inspires action!
And I donated to this very important fund for GOTV in Ohio
Caveat: I'm totally in favor of working hard to register and turn out young people. However, we can't assume that additional young people who are to be registered at the margins, will turn out at the same rate or support us to the same extent as those already registered. Those who take the trouble to get registered (even considering easy voter registration through driver's license process) are much more likely to be attuned and motivated by key issues, than those who have yet not.
James, a few things here: 1) you need to produce data to back this up. You may be right, but without data it's just spitballing. 2) So let's say turnout rate of larger youth voter pool is 82% rather than 85% but it's 10m more voters. We still pick up millions of votes. So, am not really with you here, and think you are missing the point.
Actually I would say you are the one making an assumption Simon. And the burden is on you to show that at the margins additional youth voters would behave the same. That actually runs counter to the may most human behavior works. Think of early adopters etc. I agree there is great potential here both for turnout and vote share, as I alluded to in my first sentence, and do work to help that effort, so I am with you on the main point. But I think we need a good precision of thought. And I also think it matters where and among whom increased voter registration occurs.
There is a mountain of data to back up my point James. We know from research that once someone registers they become more likely to vote, as is born out by Laura Brill's research on young people. We also know that until they are registered they are not touched by campaign field operations or even paid social media. So another reason people once registered turnout in higher numbers is that until they are registered they are not contacted by campaigns.
All supporting our agreement that these efforts are worthwhile. But not addressing that those newly registered will behave the same as the select group that have gone to the trouble of already getting registered. One thing that can help us in this regard is when registration efforts are packaged along with voting education, as they often are.
Finally, I will make my last point again - even if there is a lower turnout by a few percentage points in a larger pool, creating more voters who are +15, +30 Dem creates lots more voters for us. There is no downside here, and it all has the additional benefit of getting the general election field operations up and running now, getting the kinks out etc.
The analog to this is with Hispanic voters. Even if we are getting a few points less with Hispanics because their numbers in the electorate are growing we are actually getting more net Hispanic votes than ever before. A slightly smaller slice of a bigger pie is still more pie.
Couldn't agree more Simon.
The media likes to paint our country as split in half, when in reality, the overwhelming majority of Americans share progressive values (common sense gun safety, reproductive freedom, equity and justice, etc.). That binary, conflict-driven narrative flattens reality into falsely-equivalent both sides-ism.
In fact, more Americans voted in 2020 than any other Presidential election in 120 years—and that was in the middle of a pandemic(!). Moreover, a record 81 million voters supported Biden (8 million more than Tr*mp), whereas the second biggest number in the election was 80 million: the number of eligible Americans who didn't vote.
Of those 80 million people who stayed home, 70% were not registered to vote in 2020!
And this finding from an analysis on nonvoters totally reinforces your points: "While nonvoters and voters share similar views on a number of issues, nonvoters are on average younger, less likely to be employed full-time or have a college degree and more likely to consider themselves politically independent. The survey showed that the majority of nonvoters are White, like the majority of voters, but a quarter are Hispanic—a significant difference from the 7% of voters who identify as Hispanic."
Source: https://dc.medill.northwestern.edu/blog/2020/12/15/nonvoters-2020-counted-out/#sthash.zUYF1Wy9.dpbs
I have written at least 90 cards to OH voters. On to phonebanking! The discussion of the surge in pro-democracy activism reminds me of what Japanese leaders said after they bombed Pearl Harbor - we have waken a sleeping giant. That’s what the insurrection and loss of national right to abortion have accomplished in our time.
Another thought, about reframing “early voting” and “election day.” Maybe call it “election season” and “last chance day”.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fj-defeatissue1
SMASH this link and DONATE if you have any extra!!! If not, sign up to phonebank. At Simon’s interview with David they had 11%! Now at 70%! It would be Awesome to have it Topped Off 100% plus before days end! That would push NO VOTES in all weekend in this unAmerican play for minority R control in Ohio!
Share Simon’s and David’s links. We are United for Ohio and democracy in every state! Let’s GO!!!!!!!!
“ALL the good things that happen to us, come from confronting the bad things and moving forward. That’s the progress. And sometimes it takes time. And sometimes it is just ONE step at a time and one baton.....”
Wisdom from this clip of Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin discussing Biden’s speech last night at Truman Library. Real history in this that supports our HOPIUM philosophy here. Enjoy
https://youtu.be/k--gh1O3aRE
Biden’s full remarks are great!
https://www.youtube.com/live/35qnlwA0dUE?feature=share
Donated and am writing letters through Vote Forward.
Awesome Laura thanks! It is get closer!
I donated and I am so glad I did. Take the time to listen to this-it is excellent. It will make you energized, proud, a bit scared, empowered and ready to fight on because things are better with Democrats. Thanks Simon for another great event!