Good morning all. Got a few things for you today:
My Interview With Ruben Gallego - Sat down with Arizona Senator-elect Ruben Gallego this morning (video above). We talked about his impressive win, Democrat’s losing ground with Latino voters and young people and what he will be focusing on in the Senate next year. Do note that our connection was a bit choppy at times but I don’t think any words or meaning was lost. Perhaps my favorite part of discussion is the need for us to move beyond the advertising-based campaign model and encourage our Democratic leaders to be themselves and connect authentically to voters through legacy and social media. This is very consistent with our calls to modernize our approach to political communications and getting loud.
Electing Ruben was one of our community’s highest priorities this cycle. We put $700,000 into his race, making us his largest fundraiser in the country. We also raised over $300,000 for our Congressional candidates in AZ-1 and AZ-6, putting our tally for Arizona over $1m. Many of you volunteered for these important races both in state and remotely. I am proud of Ruben for prevailing in what was a tough year for us in Arizona, and very proud of our community for the support we provided. Enjoy the interview, and remember - while we had a tough year at the Presidential level, the Hopium community had important wins across the country, from California to Nebraska to North Carolina.
The Fall Of Assad Is An Enormous Blow To Putin - Let’s start with a young Syrian woman explaining what this moment means to her, her family and all of us:
On Bluesky this morning the Ukrainian commentator Anton Geraschenko posted an English translation of a Russian blogger coming to terms with what a strategic disaster Assad’s fall is for Russia. Khmenimim is the Russian air base in Syria, Tartus it’s naval base:
Bashar al-Assad is in Moscow, and our military is stuck and blocked in Syria, Libya, Africa. Our bases have been completely blocked, no one is allowed in or out, all transportation routes have been cut off for now.
Khmeimim is surrounded by fighters (Russian Foreign Ministry calls it the opposition) – fighters are at checkpoints, and on duty inside the base. There are periodic attempts at provocations, shelling at some bases. Tartus is abandoned, ships with military personnel are in the coastal zone.
The preliminary agreement on the stay of our contingent is 75 days. After that, withdrawal. There are instructors, consultants, the "African Corps", the Ministry of Defense and the Special Operations Forces at the Russian military bases. Our people are holding on bravely, all are ready, if anything happens.
Negotiations on Syria are now underway between Russia, Turkey, Iran and others. The issue of Russia's military bases in Syria is open, if there was already a guarantee, then no one would shell them and our people could move freely. Then our stranded military could fly out of Khmeimim.
And now the question of how to get them out of there by sea is being considered. If we leave Syria, then the point of the Defense Ministry's African Corps is destroyed? By losing Syria, including as a transportation hub, we lose access to Africa.
Russia's withdrawal from Syria will give Turkey an opportunity to become a player in the European energy market. Building a pipeline to Europe. Russian bases can be used as a way to induce Russia to make peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the US.
The Washington Post has a great deep dive on what the possible loss of these bases mean to Russia and it’s ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa. An excerpt:
The loss of Tartus would have a significant impact on the Russian navy, which attempts to maintain a permanent presence in the eastern Mediterranean.
With the loss of that port, and with similar facilities in the Black Sea vulnerable to the war in Ukraine, Janes analysts suggested Monday, Russia would have to redeploy ships and submarines to Baltic Sea.
Russia used the Hmeimim air base as a hub not only to strike Syrian rebels, but also to support mercenaries in Libya, the Central African Republic and Sudan
In a new WaPo column, Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia, David Ignatius writes about Ukraine’s support of the Syrian rebels:
The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad.
Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group based there, the knowledgeable sources said.
The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.
As I wrote Monday the fall of Assad and the humiliation of Putin may also make it harder for Trump to get his unacceptable 4 - Hegseth, Gabbard, Patel and Kennedy - confirmed. The world has just grown far more complicated, making these unqualified and unfit nominees even more of an an unacceptable risk. Putin has stumbled, badly - again - and alliance with him may be far less appealing for Republicans going forward. The pro-Russian, anti-NATO stances and statements of many MAGAs, including these 4, will be far harder to defend in the confirmation process. We just have to keep working it peeps:
Call your Senators and Representative to let them know your dissatisfaction with the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon’s pick of Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth and Robert Kennedy; and to inform them of your expectation that they will leave it all out there on the playing field to block these profoundly dangerous nominations whether they have a vote on them or not.
Contact the White House and ask President Biden to order the FBI to begin background checks into Trump’s nominees immediately and before Trump installs Patel to disable the process. Last week the Trump team signed an agreement allowing these background checks to go forward. President Biden should do Mr. Trump a favor and expedite the clearance process for the most sensitive jobs of State, Defense, DNI, CIA, Homeland Security and HHS (pandemic preparedness) so the new team can hit the ground running in January.
Need to working everyone. Can’t let up.
Some Things Worth Your Time -
The center-left polling consortium Navigator Research keeps releasing break-outs of a very large sample poll it conducted in the days before and after the Election. This morning they released a must read analysis of how various demographic groups broke in the election. Strong recommend.
The Washington Post interviewed Democratic governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Laura Kelly of Kansas on how Democrats can win in red states. Found this really interesting.
Paul Krugman has left the NYTimes and is now writing on Substack. His first post-NYT column does a data-filled takedown of DOGE. Strong recommend, a great compliment to my interview with Elaine Kamarck.
In the first inflation report after Trump’s election and his clearly inflationary economic agenda, inflation rose slightly, from 2.6% to 2.7%. Trump now faces two very daunting, new, early governing challenges - rising inflation/higher than desired interest rates, and the geopolitical fallout of the fall of Assad. As I wrote yesterday Trump’s fantasy world is going to start crashing into the real one very, very soon.
What Happened, What Comes Next - To help make sense of what happened in the 2024 election and where we go from here I’ve launched a new video discussion series to bring outside voices and experts into our conversation here, one that starts with many more question than answers. Here are the first six of those talks:
Anderson Clayton - On our impressive down-ballot wins in North Carolina
Ken Martin - MN Dem Chair, a leading candidate for DNC Chair on the future of the DNC and the Democratic Party
John Della Volpe - On Trump’s gains with young people, particularly young men
Joe Trippi - On the power of networks and the need to build our own
Elaine Kamarck - On DOGE and Reinventing Governments
Rep. Abigail Spanberger - On winning Virginia in 2025. Learn more about Abigail | Volunteer | Donate To Her Campaign | We have already raised more than $10,000 towards our $100,000 goal!
You may also find these two segments from our fall Closing Strong series with Tara McGowan and COURIER Newsroom useful:
On The Need For Pro-Democracy Media - With Tara McGowan and Dan Pfeiffer
Beyond MAGA Creators - Russia’s influence on the Republican Party runs deep with Stewart Stevens and Jiore Craig
And here’s my two most recent post-election videos and analyses:
I’ve set up a thread for paid subscribers to offer their thoughts on what this wonderful and plucky community should do next. I’m grateful for the many comments we’ve received so far. Weigh in if you can in the coming days, and note that an annual Hopium paid subscription is now 10% off through the end of the year for those who may want to sign up or give a bit of Hopium as a holiday gift!
Finally, some inspiration from FDR:
"They [who] seek to establish systems of government based on the regimentation of all human beings by a handful of individual rulers...call this a new order. It is not new and it is not order."
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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