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Apr 11
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When asked how the economy in the country is doing, ~60% of people say it’s not good. But 60% of people say they are personally doing well (and their local community too). They can’t both be true. This seems to suggest that 1. The country is not doing that badly 2. Media drive the narrative that people are not doing well.

(Yes, some people are not doing well; but median wages have been increasing more than inflation for a year or so).

My sense of why some people are feeling worse now than say 2020 is explained by the post I wrote this am. Btw, if prices start to fall (deflation) my understanding is that we’re in a heapa trouble.

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People think the national economy is bad but their state and local economies aren't bad.

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I saw Charles Coleman make a similar argument on Alex Wagners show tonight about why some black men are switching their votes to Trump, because of a lack of acknowledgement that mistakes were made. I feel like I’ve seen Democrats, the president, the vice president, acknowledge the economic pain and injustice experienced by many Americans. I am having a hard time understanding exactly what and how often you want them to say it. I don’t mean to diminish your feelings or reaction to the president talking about inflation numbers, but I just don’t get the expectation that Biden almost needs to take responsibility for high prices, or racial injustice, and wonder if what you and Charles want would really be productive for our future or for the election.

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Agree Laura- I hear Biden say “ reelect me bc I need to finish the job, it’s not done” or

start a sentence stating “ we know everyone out there is not experiencing the changes yet but we plan to keep fighting for improvements”. I’m amazed when people are not remotely aware of the cliff we came so close to falling off as a country post-Covid.

I asked grandkids about this but they don’t realize at all what didn’t happen. Chalk it up to human nature I guess.

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Joe Trippi commented on this today: in short, if the election is about the economy, Biden will lose. We have to acknowledge things just are not that good for a lot of people, including me and mine. Wife out of work for a long time with no prospects other than 20 bucks an hour; she was making 135K. All her colleagues in pharma are in the same boat. Older workers are not finding good jobs. At least anecdotally. However, this election, Trippi says, is not going to be about the economy, and neither was 2022. This election is about abortion rights, democracy, and healthcare. And trump and the Rs know it. And it also is about a referendum on trump. I got the feeling that Biden talking about infrastructure is not effective; that's long term stuff. Instead, we have to remind people how vile trump is; many need this reminder. There's no price of eggs that will make trump acceptable to me or a lot of other people. But taking your suggestion, I feel, is not going to make the campaign better. It's not good to remind people that they are hurting; that only reinforces a desire for change. The strategy is this; remind people who took away women's rights, who is going to fight for them to be restored, and who is the criminal in the race. A few months ago I felt we were turning the corner on inflation and things were getting better; currently I do not see that. But again, that is not the race I think we should be running on. Others may feel differently. I suspect Simon thinks highly of Joe Trippi but he may not totally agree with his analysis, which I think I summarized accurately.

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Apr 11
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For North Carolina Republicans to choose Mark Robinson as their gubernatorial candidate is yet another unwitting gift to Democrats! Meanwhile, in Josh Stein we have a great candidate.

In North Carolina, I’m confident that Robinson will pull down Trump’s numbers – and vice versa.

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Bidenomics is a success. President Biden is using the powers of Democracy, through legislation and spending priorities, to expand opportunities throughout the middle class. Low wage earns are earning more; union jobs are growing; inflation is down; college debt is being forgiven.

Democracy can guide capitalism toward a more healthy future. Some call this Democratic Capitalism.

Democracy guiding capitalism. Simple. Europeans understand this priority. Democracy first, ensuring basic rights and responsibilities. Capitalism therefore succeeds for the many, not just the few.

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Can’t wait to watch the new video and yesterday’s interview about abortion in Florida. I’m returning from vacation and getting spun up and ready to get back to work.

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They are great vids Jason. They are treats. And here is another from Noel Casler. He explains my anxiety clearly and then ties it back to the power we have inside each of us. Back to my postcards. Enjoy.

https://youtu.be/stgBHMmDPMI?si=G3JDNWc4FXUBn31s

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We're all working hard but you are able to move the needle all on your own, in a way that most of can't. Thank you!

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takes a village!

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We collectively can move the needle!

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My offer to gift five subscriptions to those in need is still open. Simon, feel free to sign some people up

as subscribers and I'll cover the cost.

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“Foreign policy and national security are the most important issue for 5% of 18-29 year olds in this credible poll, with inflation, jobs and the economy, abortion, health care, climate change and education coming in higher.”

William He,the young dynamic student and founder of Dream for America spoke to my activist group last w-end and indicated his (somewhat more informal) polling reflected similar concerns for younger voters.

Dream4America https://dream4america.org/ is “taking on Turning Point USA.”

They are also part of the coalition endorsing Students for Biden/Harris. D4A is on multiple social media platforms, including Truth Social,so please amplify/share /support if you’re able.📣

We have young and dynamic William He.💙 They have Roseanne Barr..…”please drop out of college because it’s going to ruin your lives.”🤯

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kimmel-mocks-roseanne-barr-for-going-full-mar-a-lago

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It was great to meet with the group last night and hear in greater detail the direction things are going. Time to give Ruben Gallego a bit more support and to focus our energies on disseminating the facts and stats of this administration.

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Such a pleasure to listen to the likely scenarios as u say rather than predictions or fake polls. I know here i will get the real data! Your intuitive reasoning is excellent.

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The leave it blank campaign got 12% in NY. That’s more than most third party candidates. One was mine. I’m 67. Not only young people are unhappy with the U.S. supporting and funding the destruction of Gaza. That said, I work hard in my very liberal small city to get people to understand that, regardless of how passionate we are about that issue, we MUST support Democrats including President Biden or we will be enabling a far right authoritarian project that will cause more harm with less opportunity to affect change. My hope is that many who voted a blank ballot did so to make a point but, like me, understand the stakes and would not do that in the general election. But it’s not a given.

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The total number of blank votes in the low turnout, uncontested NY State primary, which includes voter mistakes and corrupted ballots, was 39,000. Almost 9m people voted in NY in 2020. The critics of Biden need to stop exaggerating the opposition to him. It's insulting to him, and to all of us.

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Make your case on the issue. You have a strong case to make. The political case, repeated again and again, is outside of the data and weakens the virtue of the policy argument you are making and the debate we need to have about the future of our policy towards the Middle East.

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I understand that. I pay to follow you because I want encouragement to resist a far right takeover of the country. I am onboard. At the same time, it doesn’t feel useful to dismiss the Gaza impact, however small you think it is. That’s why I engage with people in my community respectfully about the need to vote for President Biden in spite of Gaza. People who would not have voted in an uncontested primary voted specifically to cast a blank ballot. I want to convince those people that it’s just as crucial to vote for all the Democrats in November.

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There is only one alternative to Biden – and that is Donald Trump, known amongst other things for his "Muslim Ban" (except from countries where he has business interests, of course).

Lynne, I am genuinely curious: what do you think a newly-elected President (sic) Trump would do for Gaza Palestinians?

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This is not relevant to what I said in any of my posts. I made it very clear that I understand that all too well.

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Lynne, I am not sure anyone is dismissing the impact of Gaza. Over the last month or so we saw major turns in the Foreign policy. I have been extremely critical of President Biden's response, much to Simon's chagrin, but we are seeing the ship of state turn on this issue.

They are releasing conversations where Joe Biden has clearly dropped the "Hug Bibi" strategy. Jill Biden is on background criticizing the policy, the Presidents closest allies in the senate are expressing openness for conditioning aid. These changes are always slow because our other allies are sensitive to big shocks to our policy. Taiwan, Ukraine, South Korea, and others look to how we respond to these type of events. I wish they had started the turn earlier but clearly the policy is meaningfully changing. I imagine this will be big topic at the state dinner with Japan the Philippines of what lead to the change in policy with Israel and Gaza.

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Thank you. This is helpful.

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I am not dismissing the import of the Gaza issue. I have called for Bibi's removal. We hosted an event on the fight for Israel's democracy before Oct 7th. What I am saying is that while I am for a healthy and respectful policy debate, it has become a common tactic among Biden's critics to exaggerate the size of the opposition to the policy. I just showed you data that this week only 2% - 2% of 18-29 years old choose foreign policy as their #1 issue. We can have this debate without resorting to what I believe is repeated misinformation about the size of the opposition to Biden's policy. Doing so disrespects Biden, and the entire Democratic family.

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Simon, I hope you’re correct. I know you’re not dismissing the issue itself. I was talking about its impact on the election. I live in a place with a lot of anti-Biden talk because of Gaza. Maybe that’s why it feels more concerning to me. It sounds like you’re saying it’s a waste of time to try to bring them around because the number is small? Please remember I’m not the enemy. I’m not trying to disrespect anyone.

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When I refer people who think this issue will cost Biden the election and MI to this data, they are unmoved. They are set in their beliefs. Fortunately for us, most voters don't agree with them. No president can be all things to all people. I remain, personally, unconvinced that a ceasefire is going to accomplish much. Mostly because I see no evidence it will be two sided. I'm not going to stop the fight against trump and his dangerous allies in my own country because of the Middle East. I live here and our way of life is under threat. It will be getting to the point where there will be few providers for women to turn to for healthcare in many states. This attack on our freedoms has to end. That's my focus. I am very encouraged by the trajectory of the data. I think that yes, FL is on the table.

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I voted uncommitted in RI as a protest, and I will energetically campaign for Biden. However I must confess he has diminished in my eyes because of Gaza. Yes, Josh is right, policy is changing — but too much is still just talk and posturing. As for people Lynne is trying to engage, I wish her luck. Because honestly, I would have to say “he is a great President, the alternative is fascism, and oh yes, I agree he is complicit in genocide.” Not a great argument

As for Simon’s needing evidence? There was no Uncommitted movement before Gaza. There was no one campaigning for Uncommitted because of any other issues. There are polls and there is feeling the mood of the electorate — there has been enough quality reporting that it should not be trivialized.

Biden and his team certainly got the message.

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Hi, I love your encouragement. I'm an African American woman in my 60's. I am hearing so many lies from Fox that seem to be seeping into African American communities, highly educated people, strong Dems, always voters. Whenni talk to them,,they are not fox news watcher. This is scary to me. I think we have to pay attention to that. For example, things are too expensive under Biden, my personal economy was better under Trump. I do point out the things Biden has done but they don't seem to believe me

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Do your friends seem to want to vote for Trump? I mean if Trump gets in it may very well mean Republicans get control of Congress too and they'll probably gut SSI . There's that

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Some say they'll leave the line blank. It's exhausting explaining

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I really hope they can be persuaded !

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I hope your friends come to understand that Biden ( or any president ) has such little - if any control - over what things cost!

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The thing I don't see discussed much is how much Rethug oligarchs are pouring into the election. Are the Dems going to be outspent by the gazillionaire MAGAs out there? Yes, I agree that we're doing better as a country than we have in a long, long time, but if the ads and disinformation start turning peoples' heads, all the good news in the world won't help. Hope I'm wrong.

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That's where we come in - at least partially. I think Biden & his team are aware of this. Happy to be in the battle for REAL information, alongside so many people !

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Yes, we will be outspent for sure in dark/soft money, as we 100% of the time always are because there are no spending caps nor disclosure requirements for it……BUT we will likely decisively outspend them in hard/campaign level dollars. Each have their advantages, but I like our edge for GOTV/field operations, and direct voter contact from candidates and campaigns

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In 2020 and 2022, I campaigned remotely for AZ. This year, I'd like to focus on NV. (I live in a blue district in CA, so my time and energy are better spent in swing state races. I opt to mainly stay in the same region for both familiarity and scheduling reasons, though I've called into VA, WI and NY-03.

*** Will you be organizing any efforts for Biden and Sen. Rosen in the coming weeks and months that I can participate in?

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While I agree that Bidenomics is a success, this may not be the feeling by many of the electorate. Why is this? I think my analysis below may explain this.

I think the main issue is crystallized in this graph below. It plots the change in median annual household income (inflation corrected) for different races/ethnicities.

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pgpf.org%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fincome-varies-widely-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups-in-the-united-states.jpeg&tbnid=Q41KbeeRBGvrGM&vet=12ahUKEwiTy6zmy7qFAxWfMEQIHdxBD7cQMygAegQIARBC..i&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pgpf.org%2Fblog%2F2023%2F11%2Fincome-and-wealth-in-the-united-states-an-overview-of-recent-data&docid=Ut5fp0jAReEBWM&w=720&h=540&q=median%20annual%20income%20by%20race&ved=2ahUKEwiTy6zmy7qFAxWfMEQIHdxBD7cQMygAegQIARBC

You can see that for every race/ethnic group, there was a large increase in median annual income (inflation corrected) each year between 2012-2020. Of note, the total increase for the whole period from 2012 to 2020 was, for

White: 21%

Black: 25%

Asian: 26%

Hispanic: 29%

(the largest single year increase during this period was 2018-2019; ~8-10% increase)

These are huge increases! I feel this contributes much to the ‘vibe’ issue. Maybe people remember 2020 not by how badly Trump botched COVID, but how good they felt economically.

I’m not sure how to address this, (maybe you folks have ideas?) but I think understanding how people feel economically, particularly comparing 2020 to now, is a start.

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btw, from 2020 to 2022, the change in median income was,

for white: -4%; black: +2%; Asian: -1%; Hispanic: +0.5%

Note the reduction in white... and the lack of increase compared to the 2012-2020 period. (Granted there was COVID, but people don't always put all factors together when they consider how they 'feel'. Also, as most analysts agree, the economic situation is very often dictated by the previous administration. So much of the 2012-2020 income increase is likely due to Obama policies.)

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But Trump happened to be in office 2020… And people probably can remember feeling good (economically) in 2020 but can’t remember when their good vibe started.

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In 2020? My God feel good then? Lock downs,shortages of everything and COVID being rampant!!!! Hell yes we're better off then 4 years ago!

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I am an X user, and strive to shine my proverbial flashlight on the maga Conspiracy clan, and their strategy when I see it. And its important to point out that I believe they know they are going to lose this year. And their plan is to once again point out the election was stolen. Heres how:

From Elon Musk to Red Wave Press to maga Congress people, they are already espousing that the Democrats are allowing non Citizens across the border by the millions, and grooming them to vote for Democrats.

This is their fail safe plan. They have made it clear to their sheep who buy anything they tell them, that the immigration policy we currently have is designed to bring in illegal votes for Democrats. What this means when Biden wins is more maga chaos over another BS conspiracy. Please shine as many flashlights on this new conspiracy as possible. Thank you.

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Another great session with powerful data. Thanks

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