Watching from the UK, where all commentators seem to have assumed a Trump presidency, I agree with you. The coalition against him is pretty strong. It should strengthen further in 24.
Thank you Simon for your continued support of President Biden and the Democratic Party. And for Hopium. I think that polls are often wrong or as you say fine for that particular moment in time. But we saw in the mid terms how the promised “red wave“ never happened. We have much going for our side. Thank you again.
I missed your interview with Lawrence lat night. Glad you put it online. You're the only one I follow for politics. I am concerned about what Trump would do if he eliminates civil service which could result in not paying out our social security, VA Benefit which I get and other benefits like disability, medicare medicaid unemployment and food stamps
I subscribe to #MSNBC at the rate of US$7.50 pm. as I cannot include it in my regular cable channel choices here in Québec, #Canada. It is the one thing I will not give up during a period of a little belt-tightening.
I also believe that as I have followed the Trump saga since June 2015, I surely qualify for some recognition by a legal institution somewhere. I thought I would stop watching and following once @JoeBiden was elected in 2020, but no, there is always another day with new revelations.
In any event, I wish everyone peace 🕊️ and joy 😊 for 2024.
IMO one needs to be selective re: MSNBC; as Simon pointed out they are not actually part of our family (and depend on big pharma, hawkers of questionable supplements, etc. for revenue). But Jonathan Capehart, Ayman, Laurence, and Velshi among others, seem less blown around by the latest poll, etc.
Thanks as always Simon. I keep hearing that fundraising for Dem/progressive groups is way down this year. Is that true? If so is that just the effect of an “off year” or is there a structural problem?
Fundraising for candidates and party committees are fine, been some outside groups which have seen a dip. We raised lots of money in OH, VA, WI and places that mattered in 2023. Possible that some that money went into the many and expensive off-year elections we had in 2023. There has been no shortage of money and intensity since 2018 and my guess is today that that intensity we keep seeing - particularly after Dobbs - will drive us to victory in 2024.
You would certainly think things were dire based on the number of emails I have received stating that this or that candidate is falling short of their FEC weekly/monthly/quarterly goal. But I wonder if candidates are just ramping up their campaigns and their fundraising earlier in this cycle. It also seems like new grassroots groups are springing up every day or else they are all trying to make a little extra revenue by selling their email lists to other similar groups.
Thanks for this, Simon. I keep thinking you're delusional because your message is so different from what I see and hear around me -- on the other hand, I always have to remember that (a) I live in Texas and (b) all those other voices have been mostly wrong before. I'm really glad I found you; your work revitalizes me and does give me hope in the best way! Hope 2024 is a good year for you.
I’ve talked my entire extended family off the ledge of despair at least 20 times by sharing Hopium data and analysis since the months leading into the 2022 midterms (back when “hopium” was just a word Nate Silver was using to be a dick)....it’s a magic elixir for anxious liberals 😂
I was happy to see you with Lawrence O'Donnell last night with my family so they got to hear the upbeat news too and are encouraged as we head into 2024!
The hubris and narcissism we are seeing on the right mirrors the strange world I was indoctrinated in from birth in evangelicalism. Now finally fully out, fully secular, a proud Democrat, nearly everyone I knew in that former life sees us as the enemy. For them it is all personal. My partner and I often discuss the parallels in the language we see around everything MAGA; the depracatory terms used for Democrats (ex: the one with "Demon" and "rat" in it) meant to trigger the faithful and make the fight one of "spiritual warfare", the language of apocalypse--vengeance and retribution, the savior and messianic memes of TFG. It does not surprise those of us who understand this mindset that they must constantly speak of victory. A god does not lose. Ever.
But those of us grounded in reason know that this conflict does actually take place in reality. We vote. We work. We write the post cards, we knock on the doors, we keep realizing nothing gets done without resilience, without human effort, often extraordinary human effort. And with you, Simon, and many others providing the inspiration, the hope, the data, the constant reminders that we have to work, we will get it done. Let's keep our heads down and our voices strong.
Thank you for the insight into how these people think. It is very foreign to me.
I co-existed with many people far more conservative than me for many years by simply not talking about politics or religion. That fell apart with Trump and I lost a lot of respect for quite a few long-term friends. That was further exaccerbated by their responses to Covid precautions (e.g., shutdowns and masking) and vaccines. I am now mostly only in contact with those "conservative" friends who left the Republican Party over Trump and who now identify as Independents.
Thanks for this. Yes, I am constantly aware that for those not saturated in the world of American Evangelicalism and its now consolidated political power it makes no sense. (I was a pastor's daughter, by my dad's side in 'ministry' until the Sarah Palin debacle. They loved her. I did not get it at the time.) In the evangelical world there has never been so much excitement as now, being fully MAGA. Weekly-or more often-TFG drops some phrase in his many tirades that speaks directly to their "hearts". On the right these are shared as if they have the weight of prophecy. It is difficult for anyone who disagrees to attend an evangelical church in this era. And, Mike Johnson's language speaks directly to that world. The photo of his prayer circle on the floor of the US House was shared jubilantly. For that side, destroying the separation of church and state would be everything. I cringe every day.
To stay in conversation, we still keep inviting family members over (we have to do the inviting) and when possible, try to engage in conversations that slightly push the envelope. We send "Happy Solstice and Happy Holidays!" cards with a letter and receive almost none in return, but our goal is to enter their world a bit and show that secular people are decent and accepting, while holding different views. Mostly our voices matter to the younger ones in our families, with whom we can have conversations that make a difference.
This worldview is preoccupied with Israel. It's very strange, but people like Pence believe it. This is why I keep coming back to the growing division between Israel and Russia, with the latter now backing Iran and Hezbollah and imperiling Israel. Trump is far more pro-Russia than anything else. It is his only consistent point. That has to be of concern to white evangelicals - as Trump shows no understanding of their views or concern for them, with Pence not around to make a case for him.
I watched the interview with Lawrence O'Donnell last night. It was excellent! He has decided not to worry about the polls after talking with Simon. Good idea!
In last night’s interview, and in this piece, you have said all the right things, as per usual. The Democrats should make your care and feeding an important focus.
What do you think of Soltis Anderson's argument in the NYT that voters are seeing trump as the more stable candidate because Biden has " failed to deliver " the stability he was elected for, and Drezner's begrudging admission that he might be correct, and that younger voters might in fact see trump as a normal figure? I note that these types of articles often fail to mention polls showing Biden ahead, and I don't see how Biden has failed to deliver stability....one argument here is voter are willing to give trump a pass on the pandemic economy because things were "good" before Covid ( and yet all I remember is trump's daily chaos ). Also, why does the NYT hate Biden so much? It's pretty obvious. Even WAPO did a side by side of trump and Biden's economy and seemed to conclude they were about the same (! ).
I'm an old Luddite and couldn't figure out how to do a link but I did send you an email of Drezner's comments on the Op-Ed, and think we would all like to see someone like yourself analyze the merits. Thank you for taking the time to respond.
I think this was a good article. She is smart, and I respect her. Note that my MSNBC op-ed directly speaks to her main point about the desire Americans for a return to normalcy, and how we have to ground our argument in that process. I think she like many commentators based too much of her argument around recent very Trumpy polling data, and discounts that a central reason we keep winning elections across the country is that when voters get to choose between the normie party vs MAGA they keep choosing the normie party, Democrats.
I think there is a difference between normalcy and order, and the base of the GOP want order while a majority of Americans want something that feels like normal.
Thank you for looking into that; but when I and others see folks like her, who have credibility, sounding the alarm ( and getting the lion's share of the attention ) it is hard not to become discouraged. I reference your work a lot and I noticed a diary on Dkos that clearly used you as a source, and asked that the diarist note it so that more people will see the work you do here. Hope that helps.
Watching from the UK, where all commentators seem to have assumed a Trump presidency, I agree with you. The coalition against him is pretty strong. It should strengthen further in 24.
The stock market is always 6 months to a year ahead of today’s news. The strong market indicates a stable USA and therefore a Biden win.
Abortion is a winning issue for democrats!
Thank you Simon for your continued support of President Biden and the Democratic Party. And for Hopium. I think that polls are often wrong or as you say fine for that particular moment in time. But we saw in the mid terms how the promised “red wave“ never happened. We have much going for our side. Thank you again.
I missed your interview with Lawrence lat night. Glad you put it online. You're the only one I follow for politics. I am concerned about what Trump would do if he eliminates civil service which could result in not paying out our social security, VA Benefit which I get and other benefits like disability, medicare medicaid unemployment and food stamps
I subscribe to #MSNBC at the rate of US$7.50 pm. as I cannot include it in my regular cable channel choices here in Québec, #Canada. It is the one thing I will not give up during a period of a little belt-tightening.
I also believe that as I have followed the Trump saga since June 2015, I surely qualify for some recognition by a legal institution somewhere. I thought I would stop watching and following once @JoeBiden was elected in 2020, but no, there is always another day with new revelations.
In any event, I wish everyone peace 🕊️ and joy 😊 for 2024.
#PeaceAndJoyFor24
One can find @Lawrence on #YouTube.
IMO one needs to be selective re: MSNBC; as Simon pointed out they are not actually part of our family (and depend on big pharma, hawkers of questionable supplements, etc. for revenue). But Jonathan Capehart, Ayman, Laurence, and Velshi among others, seem less blown around by the latest poll, etc.
Lawrence’s is the only MSNBC show I can’t live without so can’t figure out how I missed that! Thank you for posting.
Thanks as always Simon. I keep hearing that fundraising for Dem/progressive groups is way down this year. Is that true? If so is that just the effect of an “off year” or is there a structural problem?
Fundraising for candidates and party committees are fine, been some outside groups which have seen a dip. We raised lots of money in OH, VA, WI and places that mattered in 2023. Possible that some that money went into the many and expensive off-year elections we had in 2023. There has been no shortage of money and intensity since 2018 and my guess is today that that intensity we keep seeing - particularly after Dobbs - will drive us to victory in 2024.
Thank you for the detailed answer.
You would certainly think things were dire based on the number of emails I have received stating that this or that candidate is falling short of their FEC weekly/monthly/quarterly goal. But I wonder if candidates are just ramping up their campaigns and their fundraising earlier in this cycle. It also seems like new grassroots groups are springing up every day or else they are all trying to make a little extra revenue by selling their email lists to other similar groups.
Thanks for this, Simon. I keep thinking you're delusional because your message is so different from what I see and hear around me -- on the other hand, I always have to remember that (a) I live in Texas and (b) all those other voices have been mostly wrong before. I'm really glad I found you; your work revitalizes me and does give me hope in the best way! Hope 2024 is a good year for you.
I forwarded this to my mom and she responded "Thank you for this on a gloomy day!"
Sending to Moms is encouraged!
I’ve talked my entire extended family off the ledge of despair at least 20 times by sharing Hopium data and analysis since the months leading into the 2022 midterms (back when “hopium” was just a word Nate Silver was using to be a dick)....it’s a magic elixir for anxious liberals 😂
I was happy to see you with Lawrence O'Donnell last night with my family so they got to hear the upbeat news too and are encouraged as we head into 2024!
The hubris and narcissism we are seeing on the right mirrors the strange world I was indoctrinated in from birth in evangelicalism. Now finally fully out, fully secular, a proud Democrat, nearly everyone I knew in that former life sees us as the enemy. For them it is all personal. My partner and I often discuss the parallels in the language we see around everything MAGA; the depracatory terms used for Democrats (ex: the one with "Demon" and "rat" in it) meant to trigger the faithful and make the fight one of "spiritual warfare", the language of apocalypse--vengeance and retribution, the savior and messianic memes of TFG. It does not surprise those of us who understand this mindset that they must constantly speak of victory. A god does not lose. Ever.
But those of us grounded in reason know that this conflict does actually take place in reality. We vote. We work. We write the post cards, we knock on the doors, we keep realizing nothing gets done without resilience, without human effort, often extraordinary human effort. And with you, Simon, and many others providing the inspiration, the hope, the data, the constant reminders that we have to work, we will get it done. Let's keep our heads down and our voices strong.
For the common good. For humanity.
Stay the course.
Thank you for the insight into how these people think. It is very foreign to me.
I co-existed with many people far more conservative than me for many years by simply not talking about politics or religion. That fell apart with Trump and I lost a lot of respect for quite a few long-term friends. That was further exaccerbated by their responses to Covid precautions (e.g., shutdowns and masking) and vaccines. I am now mostly only in contact with those "conservative" friends who left the Republican Party over Trump and who now identify as Independents.
Thanks for this. Yes, I am constantly aware that for those not saturated in the world of American Evangelicalism and its now consolidated political power it makes no sense. (I was a pastor's daughter, by my dad's side in 'ministry' until the Sarah Palin debacle. They loved her. I did not get it at the time.) In the evangelical world there has never been so much excitement as now, being fully MAGA. Weekly-or more often-TFG drops some phrase in his many tirades that speaks directly to their "hearts". On the right these are shared as if they have the weight of prophecy. It is difficult for anyone who disagrees to attend an evangelical church in this era. And, Mike Johnson's language speaks directly to that world. The photo of his prayer circle on the floor of the US House was shared jubilantly. For that side, destroying the separation of church and state would be everything. I cringe every day.
To stay in conversation, we still keep inviting family members over (we have to do the inviting) and when possible, try to engage in conversations that slightly push the envelope. We send "Happy Solstice and Happy Holidays!" cards with a letter and receive almost none in return, but our goal is to enter their world a bit and show that secular people are decent and accepting, while holding different views. Mostly our voices matter to the younger ones in our families, with whom we can have conversations that make a difference.
onward....
This worldview is preoccupied with Israel. It's very strange, but people like Pence believe it. This is why I keep coming back to the growing division between Israel and Russia, with the latter now backing Iran and Hezbollah and imperiling Israel. Trump is far more pro-Russia than anything else. It is his only consistent point. That has to be of concern to white evangelicals - as Trump shows no understanding of their views or concern for them, with Pence not around to make a case for him.
Exactly the same experience. Appreciate your straightforward statement.
Excellent piece on MSNBC, Simon. Thank you!
Let’s do this, Team! Rest up for 2024. Hugs all around.
💙 the op-Ed. So much good info/data. Especially like how you acknowledge recent years have been hard. People need to hear that…
You may know ?, preview of your op-Ed was the lead on today’s MSNBC Daily newsletter.
they promoted the op-ed very heavily. Am grateful.
I watched the interview with Lawrence O'Donnell last night. It was excellent! He has decided not to worry about the polls after talking with Simon. Good idea!
In last night’s interview, and in this piece, you have said all the right things, as per usual. The Democrats should make your care and feeding an important focus.
What do you think of Soltis Anderson's argument in the NYT that voters are seeing trump as the more stable candidate because Biden has " failed to deliver " the stability he was elected for, and Drezner's begrudging admission that he might be correct, and that younger voters might in fact see trump as a normal figure? I note that these types of articles often fail to mention polls showing Biden ahead, and I don't see how Biden has failed to deliver stability....one argument here is voter are willing to give trump a pass on the pandemic economy because things were "good" before Covid ( and yet all I remember is trump's daily chaos ). Also, why does the NYT hate Biden so much? It's pretty obvious. Even WAPO did a side by side of trump and Biden's economy and seemed to conclude they were about the same (! ).
Pls send a link to the Soltis Anderson passage....
I'm an old Luddite and couldn't figure out how to do a link but I did send you an email of Drezner's comments on the Op-Ed, and think we would all like to see someone like yourself analyze the merits. Thank you for taking the time to respond.
I think this was a good article. She is smart, and I respect her. Note that my MSNBC op-ed directly speaks to her main point about the desire Americans for a return to normalcy, and how we have to ground our argument in that process. I think she like many commentators based too much of her argument around recent very Trumpy polling data, and discounts that a central reason we keep winning elections across the country is that when voters get to choose between the normie party vs MAGA they keep choosing the normie party, Democrats.
I think there is a difference between normalcy and order, and the base of the GOP want order while a majority of Americans want something that feels like normal.
Thank you for looking into that; but when I and others see folks like her, who have credibility, sounding the alarm ( and getting the lion's share of the attention ) it is hard not to become discouraged. I reference your work a lot and I noticed a diary on Dkos that clearly used you as a source, and asked that the diarist note it so that more people will see the work you do here. Hope that helps.
Agree the Soltis Anderson argument made my head explode and made no sense. Back to my theory: Clicks are $$$$$.