Anne Applebaum is a very smart person and an expert in geopolitics and political science, but she is not an expert in American politics. Honestly, this summary reads like the product of a week of playing political fantasy football - it all sounds like it makes sense and its fun to think about because we're sick of this race as it is, but American history could not be more clear: you do not replace an incumbent, and you do not have a contested convention. This plan is what a party that panics and loses would do.
Also, FWIW, Biden dropping out would turn the RNC into a four-day victory lap, since they would have effectively beaten him. They would be ecstatic. I don't know that they were planning to spend much time attacking their opponent next week, either - it will be a MAGA hate fest and Trump is now focused on gloating over his new "exoneration".
Well said Joe! None of these pundits are really political experts - they are mostly reporters who talk to people like Simon (OK also some former pols). It’s like a tech reporter opining about how Apple should structure its next bond issues. What’s interesting is looking at NYT, Wash Post coverage - nothing about Trump all negative coverage about Biden. It’s clear who they want to lose, the scalp they are after…
I love that analogy and I think i can improve it: It's like Walter Isaacson claiming he can be CEO of Apple because he wrote a biography on Steve Jobs.
Dave, I would go so far as to say that if this is NOT happening, then it is malpractice from the swarm of unprofessional Republican-leaning pollsters who have one primary objective: to influence the narrative. If it’s not happening yet, then I suspect it’s right around the corner.
As I said before they show it virtually a tie even with supposedly Trump being even or carrying the young n Hispanic vote carrying 20-30 % of black vote . He's doing that n is only just tied or just a few points ahead?
Dave M, it is happening (elite opinion arrayed against Biden). Even NPR jumped on that wagon. Yesterday and the day before the morning host was fixated on Biden with hardly a word about Trump's Gish Gallop.
IMHO, the media is playing us all for all it is worth. Keep tuned to your screen for the next episode ... I do not watch. Just listen to select podcasts.
I'm heartbroken but still stubbornly optimistic. The Democratic bench is stronger than I've ever seen it, and we have lots of good options if we have to take the terrible option of replacing the top of the ticket.
Has there ever been a politician in history more underestimated than Joe Biden? I believe with all my heart that he will win in November, and that switching horses right now would be a disaster. All Dems should be capitalizing right now on the gift handed down by SCOTUS with its hideous immunity decision. Let's see what that does to the polls!
Thanks for the link. I have no idea who this guy is, but he makes more sense that a lot of the MSM pundits.
I will be keeping on doing what I've been doing since early in the year - trying to register new voters and banking GOTV postcards and Vote Forward letters to be mailed closer to the election. My creaky joints and heat intolerance make me a poor candidate for canvassing in NC, but I will be adding in phonebanking and voter protection activities when it gets closer to the election.
Thank you. I dont know how to attach links, but Allan Lichtman and Lawrence O’Donnell have good takes on this. You can search on YouTube.
I don’t know how this will all come out in the end, but Heather Cox Richardson says she’ll vote for a ham sandwich instead of Trump! Haha! I would too!
I'd vote for a red white and blue flaming pile of excrement over Trump. I'd vote for Jeffery Dahmer over Trump--at least he showed remorse for what he'd done.
I am a Democrat, but at times wonder if our friends are capable of thinking through things before 'shooting off our foot,' so to speak. And I've noticed a couple of the most vocal Joe-attackers are from states like Texas and Iowa.
Media elites know *exactly* what they are doing in pushing this--they see boffo ratings in a contested convention and, more importantly (for them), boffo ratings and clicks for the next four years with their cash cow back in office. Outlets like the Times and Post have proven they are, at best, frenemies of the people. Thank God for pubs like the Inquirer in the city where it all began who still understand why the Founders felt it was so important to protect them.
This thread gives a lot of great reasons why the top of the ticket should be Harris, if it’s not Biden. At the same time, it’s looking pretty clear that Biden has generally taken a big hit in the polls when he was already slightly behind. I’m going to support the Democratic ticket no matter what, but I would feel a lot more confident with Harris at the top of it.
Yes my fellow Lisa’s. Biden all the way! If Joe Biden were to leave, it would make us look weak and easily bullied by MSM. We set our own course and agenda, not them. We know that Joe Biden is more than competent! Why are some people so quick to throw him under the bus? DT should leave but not Biden. Why are some so jittery? The other side is behind their felon. There is no comparison between the two. I do not listen to any pundit on t.v. who wants him replaced.
I agree. I wrote the same thing (but ooops lost it!) - why wait for the next election and the SCOTUS-hoped-for outcome to turn our Democracy into autocracy? Start now and arrest those who incited and continue to incite insurrection by shouting lies into their echo chamber. Put Mike Flynn back in jail with his pal Bannon. AND PARDON HUNTER!! His crime can't possibly come close to the Trump family member who extorted $2B from the Saudis to create his post-Whitehouse (retirement) investment firm, Affinity Partners. Crown Prince MBS overruled the panel that screens such investments in appreciation for Kushner's support during years at the Whitehouse. That reminds me, whenever a Republican accuses you of something, they are doing it.
I remember during the Trump presidency, when the liberal blogosphere was screaming at Nancy Pelosi to impeach and losing its collective mind. There was frankly even a lot of talk about her age and how she couldn't be an effective Speaker anymore. In response, she waited . . . and waited . . . and didn't respond to the screaming . . . and waited some more . . . And then pulled the trigger on impeachment at exactly the right time. I know how scary things are right now. I was hoping to get a little more encouragement from Simon, but he's only himan like the rest of us. At the same time, I've always felt that one of Biden's superpowers is his ability to tune out all the bullshit and armchair commenters, and get stuff done. There were worries about his age in 2020 too, even published by the NY Times. And then the screams for him to just magically DO SOMETHING about Sinema and Manchin, and DO SOMETHING about the Republicans trying to crash the economy, and DO SOMETHING about . . . It just didn't end. I think the best thing we can do right now is collectively shut up and support our president, and IF he feels he needs to drop out, support Harris and no one else for president.
"I was hoping to get a little more encouragement from Simon, but he's only himan like the rest of us." True.
Also: Simon planned to be on vacation this week, and I think we'll all agree that he has earned this time off.
Also: One reason we respect Simon is his commitment to evaluating things rationally, based on the best available data. Sometimes that data isn't immediately available. He can't be more encouraging without good data.
So well said Carolyn. The thing I would add is he is politically brilliant and experienced and realizes leadership needs time to process what comes next. It’s not for him to make this decision. But more than anything he comes from a long line of survivors. And, on a daily basis by all he says and does, he is relentlessly focused on our democracy surviving and thriving.
I’m all in on that plan!
And I’m so glad to be in the Hopium community in this battle against MAGA and the GOP 🇺🇸 Let’s Do More no matter how worried we are🙏🏻 Thank you Carolyn.
Yes I think Simon is keeping his powder dry right now and letting this play out before weighing in. This is smart and he's also looking out for us by waiting. This waiting is really hard, but necessary.
Completely agree. People forget the disastrous DEM convention of 1968 that allowed Nixon to waltz into the WH. Then there was Ted Kennedy in 1980 teasing the idea of running for President during the convention which weakened Carter, giving us Reagan.
You are correct about folks underestimating Joe Biden. I suspect the right-wingers are trying so hard to unseat him because he is actually getting things done for the American people and not just the wealthy. They can't stand that. The mere mention that they should be expected to pay their fair share of taxes horrifies them. That's not much of a policy platform.
To me, it feels much more serious at this point. I live in New England. I see headstones and monuments of Revolutionary war heroes in every town. Historic buildings and following the trail of Paul Revere are well documented. Democracy was their gift to us and we are letting it slip away into what I can only describe as evil. For trmp to look at that camera and spout off the fiction of his debate novella, sorry, takes a truly demented sort of soul. (And his plane is parked now between Russia's and Saudi Arabia's. His new business in SA would further influence US policy.)
I agree with you. I suspect Trump sold our secrets to the Saudis, Putin, and anyone else who hated America and loved money. Look at Clarence Thomas--all those gifts from Leonard Leo because he felt he was underpaid. Trump will throw all of America under the bus to stay in league with the moneymen. I don't doubt that for one instant. And all the rest of those in America who worship "free market" economics above all else, egged on by Christian Nationalism bigotry and misogyny will join him in their "holy war" of greed and winning at any cost. This is going to be ugly.
The "free-market" is cover for white Christian male. But nothing spiritual about those Christians, they just want to control it all. Those are the scotus liars.
I agree. This has nothing to do with the teachings of Jesus and everything to do with power and control. We need to fight back with everything we’ve got remembering that they have the guns. It’s going to take a lot of courage from all of us. All those smiling SCOTUS faces would knife you in the back sooner than you could say hello.
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
I agree that we should all be spreading the message and informing folks as best we can, even if loud and obnoxious, as to the dangers of Trump and the GOP fascists. Do whatever you can to spread that word. Facebook. Instagram. Twitter. At the water cooler. Whatever it takes. I’d focus on the extremism that is now the GOP. Just do it as much as you can.
As for Biden, I agree we should not be attacking him. Never. This has to be his decision. But I am more and more convinced, and I hope his advisors are being honest with him in this regard, that he should step aside. The polling coming out this afternoon clearly indicates his bottom has dropped out. He’s lost his floor. He is now in the 30s in some of these polls and worse yet, Trumps went up a point or two. And those numbers will get much, much worse over the next week as the impact of a full week of horrifically negative press takes hold. I’m also more convinced last Thursday was not an aberration. So, I see no chance he can salvage this.
I am worried sick about the Immunity decision as it seems like MAGA is setting up for a take over. What, if anything, can be done about this decision in the near future or down the road.I am still in with Biden and will be. He has proved that he can do the job.
Beverly, I feel exactly the same. My stomach has been in turmoil mostly because I fear not enough people in America are aware of what this means for them, nor have they heard of Project 2025. I was feeling rather optimistic, even after the debate debacle. But now, I desperately need more Hopium!
Don't lose your optimism ! Btw - I've been surprised by the number of people I'm meeting - total strangers btw - that actually are very aware of Project 2025! It's getting out there!
of course & not even in a political context either - its come up in conversation if it happens to turn political we're talking co workers or strangers in the bar!
She is engaged but has not been as much lately. She is definitely tuning in now. She wanted to know more about Project 2025 and I sent her links that had summaries. It can get overwhelming and I do better with bullet points and summaries. Otherwise, it is above my pay grade.
These are two summaries I found online when I googled short summary of Project 2025:
1). Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies, or terminated. Funding for climate research would be cut while the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed along conservative principles.
2)Simply put, Project 2025 is a massive, 920-page document that outlines exactly what the next Trump presidency would look like. This doesn’t just include policy proposals — like immigration actions, educational proposals and economic plans — but rather a portrait of the America that conservatives hope to implement in the next Republican administration, be it Trump or someone else. The document is a thorough blueprint for how, exactly, to carry out such a vision, through recommendations for key White House staff, cabinet positions, Congress, federal agencies, commissions and boards. The plan goes so far as to outline a vetting process for appointing and hiring the right people in every level of government to carry out this vision.
Those summaries would be very helpful. Especially since the GOP announced that it is "streamlining" its platform this year to make it easier for people to understand. I'm guessing the real reason is to make it easier to hide the dangerous details.
These are two summaries I found online when I googled short summary of Project 2025:
1). Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies, or terminated. Funding for climate research would be cut while the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed along conservative principles.
2)Simply put, Project 2025 is a massive, 920-page document that outlines exactly what the next Trump presidency would look like. This doesn’t just include policy proposals — like immigration actions, educational proposals and economic plans — but rather a portrait of the America that conservatives hope to implement in the next Republican administration, be it Trump or someone else. The document is a thorough blueprint for how, exactly, to carry out such a vision, through recommendations for key White House staff, cabinet positions,Congress, federal agencies, commissions and boards. The plan goes so far as to outline a vetting process for appointing and hiring the right people in every level of government to carry out this vision.
I feel this also. I know Simon doesn’t want to focus on worry and I agree that action is actually a much more useful response than worry. Having said that, the alarming rulings from SCOTUS DOES make me worry, that not only are they prepared to place him above the law, but that they are also prepared to place him above the election. The insistent press attacks and obsession with POTUS’ debate performance are the setup and the excuse for these radical judges to see their election denialism all the way through to its obvious conclusion. To not acknowledge this could happen is to not prepare. I don’t know what the answer is, but preparing a strong counter strategy seems wise. Meanwhile once he returns I do hope POTUS will speak directly to the press and the people in unscripted press pools and other venues to put people’s mind at ease and quiet the constant criticism. If he means to stay in the race (and I hope he will) he needs to be out front making up for the opportunity lost from the debate. I know he also has to fulfill his duties as president, but silence at this point is hurting, not helping.
Thank you. This is basically what I asked Simon in another post if I could contact him privately about. Now that you have broken the ice, I’m going to go whole hog.
If President Biden is the apparent winner on the evening of November 5, Trump will contest the results. If Trump is the apparent winner, we will know that it’s by cheating and we will have cause to contest the results. Once the contested election gets to the Supreme Court, it is game over for all of us. Trump absolutely will be declared president. I mean, even if we were to manage the 538 state sweep of the electoral college. They will find some way of twisting logic to make Trump president. Simon, please don’t kick me out for this post (But if you must, I want my subscription fee back. I will need every penny I can get to escape from the US, even though I know there’s no place to go).
In order to not worry, we have to prepare for this certainty.
I am not a lawyer, so forgive me. How is this not a Constitutional Crisis? How can't the government take them to court, or arrest them for attacking the foundations of our Democracy. It's so embarrassingly clear.
I wish democratic politicians would stop this nonsense of saying that Biden should step down. This will hurt our party. We all need to be united behind Joe and defeat this convicted felon, the Heritage Foundation and the SCOTUS and tell them not on our watch!
I've been saying that for some time ! Joe is underestimated, especially when it comes to 4D chess ! Seriously when he first became the nominee in 2020 I was worried - I didn't want him. I remember thinking he was too easy a target. He won. I remember thinking in Congress, his major bills were all but dead ( thanks to the melodramatic, mind fuckery reporting): a couple of MAJOR ones passed! I wondered how badly hurt he would be by Dean Phillips (& others) in the primary; he survived. What about student loans ? Well, he's worked endlessly to find work around when dealing with a corrupt, contaminated Supreme Court. Do I sense a pattern here ?! Here's a thought : could it be that a decades-experienced politician knows how to out-maneuver bad actors ( even the off the charts maga ones )?! Go Dark Brandon! You have my support! As for the rest of us, I repeat an earlier sentiment I have shared before from my days in sales. It's useful for any time you feel demoralized by bad headlines, overpaid pundits, petty newspaper editors, or any of the right wing gremlins. It goes as follows: " Don't let the shitheads get to ya!!!" Happy 4th!
President Biden’s embrace of the "Dark Brandon" meme has been pure genius! Utterly hilarious to see how the Biden-Harris Campaign uses it to troll Trump, not least on Donald’s own "Truth Social".
Exactly! Stop worrying about Biden's mental acuity. Start attacking and attacking the corrupt, out of control SCOTUS and their anti-American Heritage Group enablersm.
If Biden wants to use the unimpeachable, extra-legal powers SCOTUS just handed the presidency, he should throw Roberts, Alito, Kavenaugh, Gorsuch, and Thomas off the court and replace them with liberal judges.
And what gives him the power to fire Supreme Court justices? He can claim it's part of his "official" duties to protect the constitution. 😱
We were looking forward to Trump’s sentencing on July 11th, and its impact on the polls. Sadly, given the US Supreme Court’s outrageous election interference, that is delayed until at least September. It’s shocking to me that Trump’s unceasing lies, horrible behavior, and his crystal-clear announcements of vengeful dictatorial intent, is having so little impact on the pundits and polls.
As far as I know, only the Philadelphia Inquirer has called for Trump to drop out of the race.
I think we were being a little overly-optimistic that the sentencing would have moved the polls - the conviction barely did, and the likely outcome was no prison time, which I think might have actually helped him. The sentencing would have been potentially satisfying for us emotionally, but I don't think it would have made an immediate difference.
It would have sure made me happy. We have to get the apathetic out to vote. Honestly, I don't believe there are any "undecideds" out there. If they are actually considering voting for Trump, that tells me everything I need to know about them. I try to reach people who say they don't want to vote. I don't argue about how bad Biden did or how hopeless it seems. I find that counter productive. But I do, then, start to say why I am voting. I think it helps. If nothing else, it doesn't hurt to try. Not taking to any Trump voters. I just can't.
The September 18 th sentencing could help this close to early voting, more so than if it were to happen now. And if the D.C. case gets to openly air the evidence they have that could be the much ballyhooed October Surprise. Sending the case back to the judge could prove very helpful. Joe has just announced that he is staying in. So let's gets back to work. I believe there is an interview coming up in the next week.
I love Joe Biden, but the Democrats need to be honest and take a careful assessment. Simply dismissing these legitimate concerns voters have is not a good strategy. The head to head race may be within the margin of error, but these assessments of fitness are hugely outside of the error ranges.
And what happens even if we do win with Joe? We spend the next 4 years having to have the same debate and argue with the media about his fitness. This could put us in a very difficult position to continue in the VA governors race in 2025, the midterms in 2026 or even the Presidential in 2028.
Yes, the democratic party is strong and winning elections all over the country, but that does not necessarily translate to Joe and we need to be candid about that.
The important thing is to re-elect Team Biden. There is nothing wrong with Biden resigning after a year or two and handing the torch to Kamala Harris. That will allow Harris and other Democratic heirs to step forcefully into the limelight.
Compare that with what would happen if Trump were suddenly to die. Given that he has tolerated no rivals, this would leave a vacuum in the MAGA-Republian Party. Their cult is nothing without him. Although I do worry about Trump choosing JD Vance as his VP mate, and Vance growing into the role as heir apparent. He’s a huge threat.
If WE don't think Biden is going to be able to serve a 4 year term, how can we make that argument to the American people? The important thing is prevent Trump from resuming the presidency and crush MAGA for good.
How do we rebut the argument that Biden is unfit if we validate that with him resigning? This would just make MAGA resurge in 2026 or 2028. That does not solve the problem.
I am describing a possible chain of events, not an announced plan. Huge difference.
To save democracy, Team Biden needs to win in 2024, and we need to flip the House and hold the Senate. If we do, a lot of good legislation can be passed, including:
– The John Lewis Voting Rights Act
– Reform/expansion of SCOTUS
– Repeal of Trump’s misguided tax cuts
– Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico!
– Reinstate Roe v Wade
– Allow Medicare to negotiate ALL drug prices!
America’s clean energy transition can be accelerated, and the economic benefits of present and future Biden-Harris legislation will become far more visible to Americans.
That’s it, get across the raging river then change horses, (when needed). Not now, we have no idea what internal chaos will erupt if changes occur now. It might even be to late in some states. Gavin ain’t gonna play second fiddle to his former sub and Harris probably feels she’s a shoe-in at this point. Nope, hold what we got. More people should come to realize the corruption of the court and awaken to the reality behind P25 if we don’t win. Just my opinion.
I’m not dismissing concerns. Replacing him would cause upheaval and do trumps bidding. How would this work, who would replace him, how in 4 months can this person get the fundraising needed to win? How in 4 months can this person convince voters that they are the right choice, how many voters will be upset who have done the work to get Biden elected and voted for him in the primaries feel? There’s so much to think about in so little time. News and MAGAs will eat us alive.
I think the coalition would accept a handoff to Harris with minimal fuss. Sure it would take a little political theatrics but all in the realm of possible.
Again it is in the realm of possible. I am just no longer convinced that the risks of him remaining the nominee are less than going with VP Harris. And every day that they let this news cycle run I think the I lean towards VP Harris.
Their ability to navigate this news cycle has concerned me much more than the debate performance.
I just don't see how they can be "letting the news cycle run". The news cycle is well outside their control. My personal happiest moment this week was when the Campaign put out its memo on Sunday night, and that's the most meaningful thing they could have done for me.
And if the biggest problem has been their media strategy, how would Harris do better? She'd either have Biden's people or her own people, and her primary campaign sucked.
VP Harris, historically has been more aggressive with the media and in her 2020 campaign showed that she had the ability to capitalize on planned moments better than President Biden I am not ignoring that she has flaws and biases that work against, but to her benefit, she would have a generational argument against Trump that the media would likely take up and talk about on their own if only because it is novel. She also just has more energy to do more that President Biden does and be able to take advantage of strategic ambiguity that Biden cannot.
I think she is also more comfortable tweaking the media and is more open to baiting the media than President Biden. President Biden appears to largely see the media as an institution and appears less comfortable challenging them or playing them for the benefit of better of narratives.
It is not hard to imagine if President Biden had ended his Supreme Court speech by closing his notes, looking up and saying "Honestly it is nice that the Court has this much trust in me. I have a few ideas, I think the people will like it." Smile, Turn and walk away. No threats, no malevolence, just mystery. It probably would change the mean NYT headline from Biden needs to drop out! to Is Joe Biden too powerful? That seems like it might be helpful. Even if you think that example is inappropriate, President Biden lets many of those opportunities go by. If ever a time to play a card like that it is when you have an out of control media cycle against your biggest weakness.
As I see it, the biggest flaw reviled by the poor debate performance is the Biden campaign's theory of the media. I can buy that they could have gotten away with few interviews and pressers if President Biden delivers in the big moments. However they seemed to be unable to meaningfully respond to an event like the Debate. Shockingly he has not done an unscripted event in the 5 days since the debate, and seem to have little understanding or ability of how to capture a media cycle effectively.
The Supreme court decision and President Biden's response was serviceable but showed how they lacked the ability or will to use the response to make the talking heads say wow, Biden looked Strong there. This is my biggest concern because I do not see an opportunity for Biden to prove himself in a big moment from now until the election (I don't think Trump will show for Debate 2) and they are not demonstrating they can capture the cycle effectively to change the narrative.
The press did say "wow, Biden looked strong there". The next big moment for Biden is his convention speech, which is not unscripted and plays to what have been his strengths with the SOTU and Raleigh. [seriously - why are "unscripted events" now suddenly be-all-end-all for a candidate? All of campaigning is basically a memorized stump speech from a teleprompter].
I feel like there's a lot of moving goalposts here. Biden has been campaigning literally non-stop since Thursday, addressing his performance daily and raising tons of money (his fundraisers, non-scripted, have been opened to the press and have been reported on extensively). I agree that the Campaign and Administration have been lax on media engagement, but that seems to be changing with the interviews this weekend and press conference next week.
No campaign, no matter how brilliant their comms, can win a news cycle as irrational, overheated, and malicious as this one. No response to the debate would ever be deemed satisfactory, because the critics are determined to pillory you regardless. You keep your head down, you solidify your standing with the core people who truly matter (donors, party leaders, high-level electeds), and you wait for the next news cycle to rebuild.
Unscripted are not the end all be all but it is what he flubbed last. It is important because it goes to the biggest concern voters have. They are worried he is not up to it and could not do the relatively common things like negotiate with world leaders or congressional leaders. It is a rough facsimile for voters to view his ability. The reason Trump avoids all potentially difficult media is because he cannot handle it. Biden needs to give people a window into his workings like this. He is great at town halls. The fact they have not already announced one since is concerning.
I agree the media was going to roast him for this but it is not realistic to say the President of the United States cannot shape the narrative.
Polls on this have not moved meaningfully. Yes, people want a different candidate, but they always did, and the majority of Democrats never have. I agree that Biden should be doing town halls and interviews. I think he will do more now than he would have. But demanding that all of that occur within 5 days when people who have been trying to get Biden out of the race since the day he took office are burning his effigy isn't realistic.
I have not been calling him to get out, nor am I doing it yet. I am calling on him to put the fire out.
He sleeps 100ft from 2 dozen reporters he could have at any point gone and taken questions from them. Hell he could have picked his favorite one and said grab a camera a mic and meet me in the oval in 30 minutes.
He has taken questions from reporters. It's never enough. I'm sorry, with all due respect, most of us here want to find ways to be productive with the cards we have been dealt with.
Elite media has many traps for a President. You give a NYT reporter lots of access then he or she has access to others, gets people of the record for a scoop for a future book. The media environment has changed, dramatically. mainstream media is desperately going clicks and compete with social media. so many examples of giving reporters access and they use it to betray sources. NYT ie gets access to senior policymakers and write their tick tock stories but the Biden WH is incredibly and appropriately careful.
“No campaign, no matter how brilliant their comms, can win a news cycle as irrational, overheated, and malicious as this one.”
I agree, Joe. Keep doing the work and meanwhile the news cycle will eventually exhaust itself and move on to other things. There’s a lot we can do to turn out Dem votes regardless.
There is, I strongly believe, a silent Biden vote out of considerable strength. Yeah, he's old and he has bad days, but this leader has overcome and responded to so many crises including the pandemic.
The NYT believes more in their brand than the American people. Just as they wanted a pulitzer for reporting on iraq and weapons of mass destruction same herre. Remember that reporter was fired and NYT was humiliated having channeled the lies about the Iraq War.
Nobody i know or hear from in all the work I’m doing for this election is dismissing concerns. I don’t know how you conclude that. What we are talking about is strategy - the best way to beat trump, the media frenzy and way too many people /Dems buying into that hysteria.
Alexandra, yes plenty have outright dismissed concerns, but that is not the problem. We have now had 5 days of this news cycle and Biden has not done an unscripted event. Realistically he should have done several by now. Even after the STOTU he had done interviews to shape the narrative. The campaign and admin historically has believed that less is more in the media, and when things are going neutral to good, I agree, but this is a fire you have to put it out and they seem more concerned about talking to donors than the public.
We want to argue about stuff, the talking heads need to talk about something, the relative silence from them on this is the bigger problem than a bad night. They are not showing signs of being able to turn it around. Realistically with the holiday they are going to lose a week and a half at least.
I do hear you. I even agree with you that he needs to do some unscripted events to quiet this. The good news is that he IS, starting this Friday with an interview with George Stephanopoulos. And he's talking with governors today to address concerns. I don't think we think a lot about how hard his job is. Almost all of his days are full, even if we don't know his schedule by heart. I think this is a pretty quick turnaround.
If he drops out do the race and Harris is the replacement, then he likely does resign because that arguably makes it easier to move existing general elections funds to Harris.
Per my post below, I don’t think the money issue should be determinative in picking a replacement if we get to that point.
The polls for Biden replacements seem meaningless at this point as they are largey based on name recognition. The best public orator by far is Gavin Newsom. Despite his flaws, he is clearly the strongest candidate should Biden drop out. California has shortcomings that MAGA will jump all over, but it is an economic, high tech, agricultural, international trade and military powerhouse… a story Newsom knows how to tell powerully and gracefully. And since Americans are largely superficial and focused on optics, he will look great standing next to Trump.
In the event that Biden drops out, a powerful ticket would be Harris-Newsom. As well as Newsom-Harris, for that matter. Regardless, Gavin Newsom is proving to be a powerful voice on the campaign trail. In my opinion, it’s time for all good orators to help turn the news narrative. Pete Buttigieg is another who should be doing lots of campaign events and television interviews. Every single time he’s been on Fox, Pete gets the best of them!
I seriously think this whole fiasco could be used as a springboard for either a Biden resurgence or a new candidate leaping ahead of Trump. I know that sounds crazy, but there is just too much energy within Dems to let this election go. I don’t know of a single Dem willing to cede our democracy. Not one.
If last Thursday was an aberration, Biden should stay. If it wasn’t, he should step down and work to ensure the smoothest transition possible. That’s my simple analysis.
I spent 3 hours yesterday legal researching campaign finance laws and reached out to a few folks I know who are experts on the matter. Yes, it’s easier to move money around in the replacement scenario if Harris is the replacement. However, and without getting into the details, there would still be some ability to move existing money to a non-Harris replacement (through party and PACs) and I really doubt the money issue will be the determinative factor in picking a replacement.
Ok, I’ll say it - if we get to the replacement scenario, just fucking put M. Obama on the ticket. As POTUS or VP. Does not matter. Just put her on the ticket, We win. Any ticket with the Obama name versus the Trump name, we win.
Hold your horses. If Michelle were on the ticket and that ticket won the election, she would be hounded constantly with charges that she's actually a third term for Barack.
OK, we appear to be talking about 2 different scenarios. You seem to be focused on her electability (which I still question), and I'm pointing out the obstacles that would be thrown in her path constantly by the MAGAts and their Russian, et. al., enablers, making her term in office ineffective and more than likely precluding her reelection.
If Biden needs - not “made to by the media” but needs to for his health or whatever - to step down, having someone, especially a white male someone, leapfrog over the sitting VP who is our first woman, and woman of color, in that role, will create more ill will than I can possibly express in a few words.
And Michelle Obama IS NOT GOING TO RE-ENTER POLITICS. She hates politics, she’s happy being a retired First Lady, author and influencer.
What we really need to do, especially in light of SCOTUS rulings - which do frighten me much more than anything Biden could say or do, because SCOTUS judges are not elected, and their rulings not as subject to popular opinion* - is present ourselves, as a party, as a united front. Not the party in disarray, not giving Republicans a toe in the door to present themselves as the strong party. We need to be unified and calm, a whole party of Nancy Pelosis if that is a thing.
*Though unpopular SCOTUS rulings can be and often were and are flouted, the Dred Scott ruling and Fugitive slave act being primary.
Pres.Abraham Lincoln ignored Chief Justice Taney. Pres. Andrew Jackson went against the Supreme Court because they had no enforcement power. Not that I encourage that. Just sayin'.
💯. If VP Harris is passed over, it would, rightly so, anger one of the largest, most loyal, most consistent Democratic voters who actually do get out and vote.
Review what happened to Hilary that gave us Trump. The feeding frenzy is appalling. I stand with Biden/Harris and am extremely disappointed with what is happening in the media. MAGA loves this and wants the disarray. Oh but for her emails/oh but for the terrible debate. It makes me sick.
What happened to HRC was the worst negative media frenzy in political history as of then. Every study confirmed this (see Columbia journalism study in particular).
The media frenzy is kicking up with each day. Now they’re getting quotes from people that met President Biden at an event and talking about faraway looks etc. (AJC).
It’s like nothing I have seen since the but her emails bs. There needs to be a better response as this is already out of control. The media is forcing this and handing the election (and our country’s future) to trump and Project 2025. I’m deeply troubled by all of this.
It’s all media outlets at this point, every single one. Even Huffington Post and MSNBC are piling on at this points It’s an orgy of Biden negativity. We have never seen anything like this in history. HRC in 2016 pales in comparison.
It’s one of the reasons I think Harris cannot be the replacement. She is his VP, and I don’t think it’s a clean enough cut to stop the negativity.
If they're depending on quotes from unimportant people (the Globe led its article with a State Senator who admitted he had wanted Biden gone for years and that nothing Biden could do now would change his mind), that shows they're getting desperate.
Also, this is pretty much identical to what happened in February after the Hur Report. It even started on a Thursday. The media was in a frenzy. The NYT and all these same pundits called on Biden to drop out. Senior Democrats were supposedly "deeply concerned". The polls didn't move, Biden gave a great SOTU a month (a full month! and he declined the Super Bowl interview! and his press conference that night sucked while all of his speeches this weekend have been great!) later, and everyone has since forgotten it ever happened.
One problem..if Biden withdrawals the money he's raised can't go to another campaign.
Harris would have access to the campaign funds, infrastructure and ballot lines.
Yes, and Janet Frohnmayer posted a great CNN interview with her. I’ll repeat her link:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8-IswXqXo_/?igsh=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng%3D%3D
Thank you, Christiane Amanpour!
Thank you for this!!
Oh my God, thank you for this!! I forwarded it on. Love love love her!!
thank you!!
Anne Applebaum is a very smart person and an expert in geopolitics and political science, but she is not an expert in American politics. Honestly, this summary reads like the product of a week of playing political fantasy football - it all sounds like it makes sense and its fun to think about because we're sick of this race as it is, but American history could not be more clear: you do not replace an incumbent, and you do not have a contested convention. This plan is what a party that panics and loses would do.
Also, FWIW, Biden dropping out would turn the RNC into a four-day victory lap, since they would have effectively beaten him. They would be ecstatic. I don't know that they were planning to spend much time attacking their opponent next week, either - it will be a MAGA hate fest and Trump is now focused on gloating over his new "exoneration".
Well said Joe! None of these pundits are really political experts - they are mostly reporters who talk to people like Simon (OK also some former pols). It’s like a tech reporter opining about how Apple should structure its next bond issues. What’s interesting is looking at NYT, Wash Post coverage - nothing about Trump all negative coverage about Biden. It’s clear who they want to lose, the scalp they are after…
I love that analogy and I think i can improve it: It's like Walter Isaacson claiming he can be CEO of Apple because he wrote a biography on Steve Jobs.
Dave, I would go so far as to say that if this is NOT happening, then it is malpractice from the swarm of unprofessional Republican-leaning pollsters who have one primary objective: to influence the narrative. If it’s not happening yet, then I suspect it’s right around the corner.
As I said before they show it virtually a tie even with supposedly Trump being even or carrying the young n Hispanic vote carrying 20-30 % of black vote . He's doing that n is only just tied or just a few points ahead?
Also in the CNN poll it shows Harris 45 Trump 47 hmmm?
CNN is owned by rich oligarchs who don’t want to pay their fair share in taxes like Joe keeps talking about,
Comcast owns MSNBC, I believe (?).
Dave M, it is happening (elite opinion arrayed against Biden). Even NPR jumped on that wagon. Yesterday and the day before the morning host was fixated on Biden with hardly a word about Trump's Gish Gallop.
Something to talk about. No Trmp trials, so let's hate Joe for a while.
IMHO, the media is playing us all for all it is worth. Keep tuned to your screen for the next episode ... I do not watch. Just listen to select podcasts.
Thanks Simon for all you do. Happy 4th and I hope you get some much needed r&r. We will need all the hopium we can get in the coming weeks and months!
🇺🇸 Elizabeth
Hi Elizabeth!
I'm heartbroken but still stubbornly optimistic. The Democratic bench is stronger than I've ever seen it, and we have lots of good options if we have to take the terrible option of replacing the top of the ticket.
Has there ever been a politician in history more underestimated than Joe Biden? I believe with all my heart that he will win in November, and that switching horses right now would be a disaster. All Dems should be capitalizing right now on the gift handed down by SCOTUS with its hideous immunity decision. Let's see what that does to the polls!
Could not agree more. The Lisas know what's up!
Hi Lisa! Check out this excellent thread on why replacing Joe would be nuts.
https://spoutible.com/thread/32957585
Thanks for the link. I have no idea who this guy is, but he makes more sense that a lot of the MSM pundits.
I will be keeping on doing what I've been doing since early in the year - trying to register new voters and banking GOTV postcards and Vote Forward letters to be mailed closer to the election. My creaky joints and heat intolerance make me a poor candidate for canvassing in NC, but I will be adding in phonebanking and voter protection activities when it gets closer to the election.
Thank you for the link! Very well argued.
Thank you. I dont know how to attach links, but Allan Lichtman and Lawrence O’Donnell have good takes on this. You can search on YouTube.
I don’t know how this will all come out in the end, but Heather Cox Richardson says she’ll vote for a ham sandwich instead of Trump! Haha! I would too!
I'd vote for a red white and blue flaming pile of excrement over Trump. I'd vote for Jeffery Dahmer over Trump--at least he showed remorse for what he'd done.
And Dahmer only killed seventeen people.
I am a Democrat, but at times wonder if our friends are capable of thinking through things before 'shooting off our foot,' so to speak. And I've noticed a couple of the most vocal Joe-attackers are from states like Texas and Iowa.
Media elites know *exactly* what they are doing in pushing this--they see boffo ratings in a contested convention and, more importantly (for them), boffo ratings and clicks for the next four years with their cash cow back in office. Outlets like the Times and Post have proven they are, at best, frenemies of the people. Thank God for pubs like the Inquirer in the city where it all began who still understand why the Founders felt it was so important to protect them.
I have a video of trmp braggaing about the media putting anything on that gets ratings $$ and uses that to his advantage ...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7I0tBlfcg10
This thread gives a lot of great reasons why the top of the ticket should be Harris, if it’s not Biden. At the same time, it’s looking pretty clear that Biden has generally taken a big hit in the polls when he was already slightly behind. I’m going to support the Democratic ticket no matter what, but I would feel a lot more confident with Harris at the top of it.
I just joined the community today because I believe there will be a high level of support here for whoever our candidate is.
Yes my fellow Lisa’s. Biden all the way! If Joe Biden were to leave, it would make us look weak and easily bullied by MSM. We set our own course and agenda, not them. We know that Joe Biden is more than competent! Why are some people so quick to throw him under the bus? DT should leave but not Biden. Why are some so jittery? The other side is behind their felon. There is no comparison between the two. I do not listen to any pundit on t.v. who wants him replaced.
Lisas for Biden!
"If Joe Biden were to leave, it would make us look weak and easily bullied by MSM. We set our own course and agenda, not them". Exactly! Yes. 💯.
Even dignifying the conversation about Biden weakens us all.
Agree
Me too Lisa…some of my favorite commentators are pulling to replace Joe. I am not going to spend a second on their podcasts, etc. we need unity now.
So nice to converse with knowledgable and like-minded Americans!
Just want to add my confidence that the Lisas definitely know what's up and should be heeded! Rock on Lisas!
I agree. I wrote the same thing (but ooops lost it!) - why wait for the next election and the SCOTUS-hoped-for outcome to turn our Democracy into autocracy? Start now and arrest those who incited and continue to incite insurrection by shouting lies into their echo chamber. Put Mike Flynn back in jail with his pal Bannon. AND PARDON HUNTER!! His crime can't possibly come close to the Trump family member who extorted $2B from the Saudis to create his post-Whitehouse (retirement) investment firm, Affinity Partners. Crown Prince MBS overruled the panel that screens such investments in appreciation for Kushner's support during years at the Whitehouse. That reminds me, whenever a Republican accuses you of something, they are doing it.
I remember during the Trump presidency, when the liberal blogosphere was screaming at Nancy Pelosi to impeach and losing its collective mind. There was frankly even a lot of talk about her age and how she couldn't be an effective Speaker anymore. In response, she waited . . . and waited . . . and didn't respond to the screaming . . . and waited some more . . . And then pulled the trigger on impeachment at exactly the right time. I know how scary things are right now. I was hoping to get a little more encouragement from Simon, but he's only himan like the rest of us. At the same time, I've always felt that one of Biden's superpowers is his ability to tune out all the bullshit and armchair commenters, and get stuff done. There were worries about his age in 2020 too, even published by the NY Times. And then the screams for him to just magically DO SOMETHING about Sinema and Manchin, and DO SOMETHING about the Republicans trying to crash the economy, and DO SOMETHING about . . . It just didn't end. I think the best thing we can do right now is collectively shut up and support our president, and IF he feels he needs to drop out, support Harris and no one else for president.
agree. totally agree.
Excellent points, ty!!!
"I was hoping to get a little more encouragement from Simon, but he's only himan like the rest of us." True.
Also: Simon planned to be on vacation this week, and I think we'll all agree that he has earned this time off.
Also: One reason we respect Simon is his commitment to evaluating things rationally, based on the best available data. Sometimes that data isn't immediately available. He can't be more encouraging without good data.
Yes he is a data guy.
So well said Carolyn. The thing I would add is he is politically brilliant and experienced and realizes leadership needs time to process what comes next. It’s not for him to make this decision. But more than anything he comes from a long line of survivors. And, on a daily basis by all he says and does, he is relentlessly focused on our democracy surviving and thriving.
I’m all in on that plan!
And I’m so glad to be in the Hopium community in this battle against MAGA and the GOP 🇺🇸 Let’s Do More no matter how worried we are🙏🏻 Thank you Carolyn.
Yes I think Simon is keeping his powder dry right now and letting this play out before weighing in. This is smart and he's also looking out for us by waiting. This waiting is really hard, but necessary.
Completely agree. People forget the disastrous DEM convention of 1968 that allowed Nixon to waltz into the WH. Then there was Ted Kennedy in 1980 teasing the idea of running for President during the convention which weakened Carter, giving us Reagan.
STAY THE COURSE #bidenharris
I agree with you!!!!!
You are correct about folks underestimating Joe Biden. I suspect the right-wingers are trying so hard to unseat him because he is actually getting things done for the American people and not just the wealthy. They can't stand that. The mere mention that they should be expected to pay their fair share of taxes horrifies them. That's not much of a policy platform.
To me, it feels much more serious at this point. I live in New England. I see headstones and monuments of Revolutionary war heroes in every town. Historic buildings and following the trail of Paul Revere are well documented. Democracy was their gift to us and we are letting it slip away into what I can only describe as evil. For trmp to look at that camera and spout off the fiction of his debate novella, sorry, takes a truly demented sort of soul. (And his plane is parked now between Russia's and Saudi Arabia's. His new business in SA would further influence US policy.)
I agree with you. I suspect Trump sold our secrets to the Saudis, Putin, and anyone else who hated America and loved money. Look at Clarence Thomas--all those gifts from Leonard Leo because he felt he was underpaid. Trump will throw all of America under the bus to stay in league with the moneymen. I don't doubt that for one instant. And all the rest of those in America who worship "free market" economics above all else, egged on by Christian Nationalism bigotry and misogyny will join him in their "holy war" of greed and winning at any cost. This is going to be ugly.
The "free-market" is cover for white Christian male. But nothing spiritual about those Christians, they just want to control it all. Those are the scotus liars.
I agree. This has nothing to do with the teachings of Jesus and everything to do with power and control. We need to fight back with everything we’ve got remembering that they have the guns. It’s going to take a lot of courage from all of us. All those smiling SCOTUS faces would knife you in the back sooner than you could say hello.
Biden on a call just now with campaign staff:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
THIS ALL DAY LONG!!!
This rant from an elderly, still-hard-working DailyKos writer really nails it!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/3/2251087/-Why-Do-We-Keep-Doing-This-A-Rant-Long-Overdue
Thank you! Just read it. Spot on.
I agree that we should all be spreading the message and informing folks as best we can, even if loud and obnoxious, as to the dangers of Trump and the GOP fascists. Do whatever you can to spread that word. Facebook. Instagram. Twitter. At the water cooler. Whatever it takes. I’d focus on the extremism that is now the GOP. Just do it as much as you can.
As for Biden, I agree we should not be attacking him. Never. This has to be his decision. But I am more and more convinced, and I hope his advisors are being honest with him in this regard, that he should step aside. The polling coming out this afternoon clearly indicates his bottom has dropped out. He’s lost his floor. He is now in the 30s in some of these polls and worse yet, Trumps went up a point or two. And those numbers will get much, much worse over the next week as the impact of a full week of horrifically negative press takes hold. I’m also more convinced last Thursday was not an aberration. So, I see no chance he can salvage this.
In comparison to your usually upbeat daily emails you seem very down in this one. We must have spines of steel and not buy in to the punditocracy.
I think he's taking his time and choosing his words very carefully in this precarious moment. I respect that.
Agreed. This has been clear since last week. The reality is that things are unsettled.
Don't be disheartened. See my reply to Jeremy Moses above.
I am worried sick about the Immunity decision as it seems like MAGA is setting up for a take over. What, if anything, can be done about this decision in the near future or down the road.I am still in with Biden and will be. He has proved that he can do the job.
I'm looking forward to reading that. Here's a link: https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/not-so-fast-donald-trump
Thank you.
Beverly, I feel exactly the same. My stomach has been in turmoil mostly because I fear not enough people in America are aware of what this means for them, nor have they heard of Project 2025. I was feeling rather optimistic, even after the debate debacle. But now, I desperately need more Hopium!
Don't lose your optimism ! Btw - I've been surprised by the number of people I'm meeting - total strangers btw - that actually are very aware of Project 2025! It's getting out there!
The Nebraska Dems call focused on it last night.
Good to hear, Chris.
Thank you, Jarrod.
of course & not even in a political context either - its come up in conversation if it happens to turn political we're talking co workers or strangers in the bar!
That’s remarkable! Do you live in a blue pocket? I have to be careful when and where I bring these things up.
Actually I do live in Portland lol
Oh, that makes sense!
Hang in there. It's tough. It's hard for me as well. A friend called me to ask about Project 2025.
Cindy, that’s great! Is this someone who is not usually that engaged in politics?
She is engaged but has not been as much lately. She is definitely tuning in now. She wanted to know more about Project 2025 and I sent her links that had summaries. It can get overwhelming and I do better with bullet points and summaries. Otherwise, it is above my pay grade.
@Cindy H Could you post some of those links with summaries here, please? Thank you for considering.
I am so late but I will get them and post the links later.
This is a great link I use which Kathy also posted below:
https://joebiden.com/project2025/
These are two summaries I found online when I googled short summary of Project 2025:
1). Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies, or terminated. Funding for climate research would be cut while the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed along conservative principles.
2)Simply put, Project 2025 is a massive, 920-page document that outlines exactly what the next Trump presidency would look like. This doesn’t just include policy proposals — like immigration actions, educational proposals and economic plans — but rather a portrait of the America that conservatives hope to implement in the next Republican administration, be it Trump or someone else. The document is a thorough blueprint for how, exactly, to carry out such a vision, through recommendations for key White House staff, cabinet positions, Congress, federal agencies, commissions and boards. The plan goes so far as to outline a vetting process for appointing and hiring the right people in every level of government to carry out this vision.
Those summaries would be very helpful. Especially since the GOP announced that it is "streamlining" its platform this year to make it easier for people to understand. I'm guessing the real reason is to make it easier to hide the dangerous details.
I will post later bc I am so late! It probably won't be until this afternoon (I am in California).
Kathy posted this link below. This is one of the ones I use. It's great, short - simply explained:
https://joebiden.com/project2025/
These are two summaries I found online when I googled short summary of Project 2025:
1). Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies, or terminated. Funding for climate research would be cut while the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed along conservative principles.
2)Simply put, Project 2025 is a massive, 920-page document that outlines exactly what the next Trump presidency would look like. This doesn’t just include policy proposals — like immigration actions, educational proposals and economic plans — but rather a portrait of the America that conservatives hope to implement in the next Republican administration, be it Trump or someone else. The document is a thorough blueprint for how, exactly, to carry out such a vision, through recommendations for key White House staff, cabinet positions,Congress, federal agencies, commissions and boards. The plan goes so far as to outline a vetting process for appointing and hiring the right people in every level of government to carry out this vision.
Cindy, I was pleasantly surprised when a voter told me she knew about Project 2025
First one, hopefully more to come! I’ve been sharing these links and interested to see your links.Yes it is (scarily)confusing .
Biden campaign, if you click on > , they expand:
https://joebiden.com/project2025/
Andra Watkins, NYT best-selling author who “escaped” Christian Nationalism decades ago has read and dissected Project 2025.
https://project2025istheocracy.substack.com/
Just got home. Yes. I do send folks this same link. I think it's great. In my haste, I didn't realize it is actually from the Biden campaign.
https://joebiden.com/project2025/
I feel this also. I know Simon doesn’t want to focus on worry and I agree that action is actually a much more useful response than worry. Having said that, the alarming rulings from SCOTUS DOES make me worry, that not only are they prepared to place him above the law, but that they are also prepared to place him above the election. The insistent press attacks and obsession with POTUS’ debate performance are the setup and the excuse for these radical judges to see their election denialism all the way through to its obvious conclusion. To not acknowledge this could happen is to not prepare. I don’t know what the answer is, but preparing a strong counter strategy seems wise. Meanwhile once he returns I do hope POTUS will speak directly to the press and the people in unscripted press pools and other venues to put people’s mind at ease and quiet the constant criticism. If he means to stay in the race (and I hope he will) he needs to be out front making up for the opportunity lost from the debate. I know he also has to fulfill his duties as president, but silence at this point is hurting, not helping.
Thank you. This is basically what I asked Simon in another post if I could contact him privately about. Now that you have broken the ice, I’m going to go whole hog.
If President Biden is the apparent winner on the evening of November 5, Trump will contest the results. If Trump is the apparent winner, we will know that it’s by cheating and we will have cause to contest the results. Once the contested election gets to the Supreme Court, it is game over for all of us. Trump absolutely will be declared president. I mean, even if we were to manage the 538 state sweep of the electoral college. They will find some way of twisting logic to make Trump president. Simon, please don’t kick me out for this post (But if you must, I want my subscription fee back. I will need every penny I can get to escape from the US, even though I know there’s no place to go).
In order to not worry, we have to prepare for this certainty.
Yes, Biden has done an amazing job!!So what if he was sick and didnt do a great job in the debate!!!!!
I am not a lawyer, so forgive me. How is this not a Constitutional Crisis? How can't the government take them to court, or arrest them for attacking the foundations of our Democracy. It's so embarrassingly clear.
I wish democratic politicians would stop this nonsense of saying that Biden should step down. This will hurt our party. We all need to be united behind Joe and defeat this convicted felon, the Heritage Foundation and the SCOTUS and tell them not on our watch!
I've been saying that for some time ! Joe is underestimated, especially when it comes to 4D chess ! Seriously when he first became the nominee in 2020 I was worried - I didn't want him. I remember thinking he was too easy a target. He won. I remember thinking in Congress, his major bills were all but dead ( thanks to the melodramatic, mind fuckery reporting): a couple of MAJOR ones passed! I wondered how badly hurt he would be by Dean Phillips (& others) in the primary; he survived. What about student loans ? Well, he's worked endlessly to find work around when dealing with a corrupt, contaminated Supreme Court. Do I sense a pattern here ?! Here's a thought : could it be that a decades-experienced politician knows how to out-maneuver bad actors ( even the off the charts maga ones )?! Go Dark Brandon! You have my support! As for the rest of us, I repeat an earlier sentiment I have shared before from my days in sales. It's useful for any time you feel demoralized by bad headlines, overpaid pundits, petty newspaper editors, or any of the right wing gremlins. It goes as follows: " Don't let the shitheads get to ya!!!" Happy 4th!
President Biden’s embrace of the "Dark Brandon" meme has been pure genius! Utterly hilarious to see how the Biden-Harris Campaign uses it to troll Trump, not least on Donald’s own "Truth Social".
I predicted Joe was THE right candidate a year before the election. I liked other candidates, but he was the was I thought best to compete w/trmp.
💯 - totally agree
Exactly! Stop worrying about Biden's mental acuity. Start attacking and attacking the corrupt, out of control SCOTUS and their anti-American Heritage Group enablersm.
If Biden wants to use the unimpeachable, extra-legal powers SCOTUS just handed the presidency, he should throw Roberts, Alito, Kavenaugh, Gorsuch, and Thomas off the court and replace them with liberal judges.
And what gives him the power to fire Supreme Court justices? He can claim it's part of his "official" duties to protect the constitution. 😱
We were looking forward to Trump’s sentencing on July 11th, and its impact on the polls. Sadly, given the US Supreme Court’s outrageous election interference, that is delayed until at least September. It’s shocking to me that Trump’s unceasing lies, horrible behavior, and his crystal-clear announcements of vengeful dictatorial intent, is having so little impact on the pundits and polls.
As far as I know, only the Philadelphia Inquirer has called for Trump to drop out of the race.
I think we were being a little overly-optimistic that the sentencing would have moved the polls - the conviction barely did, and the likely outcome was no prison time, which I think might have actually helped him. The sentencing would have been potentially satisfying for us emotionally, but I don't think it would have made an immediate difference.
It would have sure made me happy. We have to get the apathetic out to vote. Honestly, I don't believe there are any "undecideds" out there. If they are actually considering voting for Trump, that tells me everything I need to know about them. I try to reach people who say they don't want to vote. I don't argue about how bad Biden did or how hopeless it seems. I find that counter productive. But I do, then, start to say why I am voting. I think it helps. If nothing else, it doesn't hurt to try. Not taking to any Trump voters. I just can't.
The September 18 th sentencing could help this close to early voting, more so than if it were to happen now. And if the D.C. case gets to openly air the evidence they have that could be the much ballyhooed October Surprise. Sending the case back to the judge could prove very helpful. Joe has just announced that he is staying in. So let's gets back to work. I believe there is an interview coming up in the next week.
Excellent point about September sentencing, Virginia. Crossing my fingers (and toes) that the conviction doesn’t somehow just evaporate.
I love Joe Biden, but the Democrats need to be honest and take a careful assessment. Simply dismissing these legitimate concerns voters have is not a good strategy. The head to head race may be within the margin of error, but these assessments of fitness are hugely outside of the error ranges.
And what happens even if we do win with Joe? We spend the next 4 years having to have the same debate and argue with the media about his fitness. This could put us in a very difficult position to continue in the VA governors race in 2025, the midterms in 2026 or even the Presidential in 2028.
Yes, the democratic party is strong and winning elections all over the country, but that does not necessarily translate to Joe and we need to be candid about that.
The important thing is to re-elect Team Biden. There is nothing wrong with Biden resigning after a year or two and handing the torch to Kamala Harris. That will allow Harris and other Democratic heirs to step forcefully into the limelight.
Compare that with what would happen if Trump were suddenly to die. Given that he has tolerated no rivals, this would leave a vacuum in the MAGA-Republian Party. Their cult is nothing without him. Although I do worry about Trump choosing JD Vance as his VP mate, and Vance growing into the role as heir apparent. He’s a huge threat.
If WE don't think Biden is going to be able to serve a 4 year term, how can we make that argument to the American people? The important thing is prevent Trump from resuming the presidency and crush MAGA for good.
How do we rebut the argument that Biden is unfit if we validate that with him resigning? This would just make MAGA resurge in 2026 or 2028. That does not solve the problem.
I am describing a possible chain of events, not an announced plan. Huge difference.
To save democracy, Team Biden needs to win in 2024, and we need to flip the House and hold the Senate. If we do, a lot of good legislation can be passed, including:
– The John Lewis Voting Rights Act
– Reform/expansion of SCOTUS
– Repeal of Trump’s misguided tax cuts
– Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico!
– Reinstate Roe v Wade
– Allow Medicare to negotiate ALL drug prices!
America’s clean energy transition can be accelerated, and the economic benefits of present and future Biden-Harris legislation will become far more visible to Americans.
Love this Dem 2025 Plan to Save Democracy and the Rule of Law!
The most important thing of all is to make sure Biden beats Trump in November. Worry about hypotheticals later!
yes, what PeachBlossom said!!!
💯 this!
That’s it, get across the raging river then change horses, (when needed). Not now, we have no idea what internal chaos will erupt if changes occur now. It might even be to late in some states. Gavin ain’t gonna play second fiddle to his former sub and Harris probably feels she’s a shoe-in at this point. Nope, hold what we got. More people should come to realize the corruption of the court and awaken to the reality behind P25 if we don’t win. Just my opinion.
agree.
I’m not dismissing concerns. Replacing him would cause upheaval and do trumps bidding. How would this work, who would replace him, how in 4 months can this person get the fundraising needed to win? How in 4 months can this person convince voters that they are the right choice, how many voters will be upset who have done the work to get Biden elected and voted for him in the primaries feel? There’s so much to think about in so little time. News and MAGAs will eat us alive.
I think the coalition would accept a handoff to Harris with minimal fuss. Sure it would take a little political theatrics but all in the realm of possible.
There is also the logistics of Biden stepping down. It's a big deal and not that easy.
Again it is in the realm of possible. I am just no longer convinced that the risks of him remaining the nominee are less than going with VP Harris. And every day that they let this news cycle run I think the I lean towards VP Harris.
Their ability to navigate this news cycle has concerned me much more than the debate performance.
I just don't see how they can be "letting the news cycle run". The news cycle is well outside their control. My personal happiest moment this week was when the Campaign put out its memo on Sunday night, and that's the most meaningful thing they could have done for me.
And if the biggest problem has been their media strategy, how would Harris do better? She'd either have Biden's people or her own people, and her primary campaign sucked.
VP Harris, historically has been more aggressive with the media and in her 2020 campaign showed that she had the ability to capitalize on planned moments better than President Biden I am not ignoring that she has flaws and biases that work against, but to her benefit, she would have a generational argument against Trump that the media would likely take up and talk about on their own if only because it is novel. She also just has more energy to do more that President Biden does and be able to take advantage of strategic ambiguity that Biden cannot.
I think she is also more comfortable tweaking the media and is more open to baiting the media than President Biden. President Biden appears to largely see the media as an institution and appears less comfortable challenging them or playing them for the benefit of better of narratives.
It is not hard to imagine if President Biden had ended his Supreme Court speech by closing his notes, looking up and saying "Honestly it is nice that the Court has this much trust in me. I have a few ideas, I think the people will like it." Smile, Turn and walk away. No threats, no malevolence, just mystery. It probably would change the mean NYT headline from Biden needs to drop out! to Is Joe Biden too powerful? That seems like it might be helpful. Even if you think that example is inappropriate, President Biden lets many of those opportunities go by. If ever a time to play a card like that it is when you have an out of control media cycle against your biggest weakness.
As I see it, the biggest flaw reviled by the poor debate performance is the Biden campaign's theory of the media. I can buy that they could have gotten away with few interviews and pressers if President Biden delivers in the big moments. However they seemed to be unable to meaningfully respond to an event like the Debate. Shockingly he has not done an unscripted event in the 5 days since the debate, and seem to have little understanding or ability of how to capture a media cycle effectively.
The Supreme court decision and President Biden's response was serviceable but showed how they lacked the ability or will to use the response to make the talking heads say wow, Biden looked Strong there. This is my biggest concern because I do not see an opportunity for Biden to prove himself in a big moment from now until the election (I don't think Trump will show for Debate 2) and they are not demonstrating they can capture the cycle effectively to change the narrative.
The press did say "wow, Biden looked strong there". The next big moment for Biden is his convention speech, which is not unscripted and plays to what have been his strengths with the SOTU and Raleigh. [seriously - why are "unscripted events" now suddenly be-all-end-all for a candidate? All of campaigning is basically a memorized stump speech from a teleprompter].
I feel like there's a lot of moving goalposts here. Biden has been campaigning literally non-stop since Thursday, addressing his performance daily and raising tons of money (his fundraisers, non-scripted, have been opened to the press and have been reported on extensively). I agree that the Campaign and Administration have been lax on media engagement, but that seems to be changing with the interviews this weekend and press conference next week.
No campaign, no matter how brilliant their comms, can win a news cycle as irrational, overheated, and malicious as this one. No response to the debate would ever be deemed satisfactory, because the critics are determined to pillory you regardless. You keep your head down, you solidify your standing with the core people who truly matter (donors, party leaders, high-level electeds), and you wait for the next news cycle to rebuild.
Unscripted are not the end all be all but it is what he flubbed last. It is important because it goes to the biggest concern voters have. They are worried he is not up to it and could not do the relatively common things like negotiate with world leaders or congressional leaders. It is a rough facsimile for voters to view his ability. The reason Trump avoids all potentially difficult media is because he cannot handle it. Biden needs to give people a window into his workings like this. He is great at town halls. The fact they have not already announced one since is concerning.
I agree the media was going to roast him for this but it is not realistic to say the President of the United States cannot shape the narrative.
Polls on this have not moved meaningfully. Yes, people want a different candidate, but they always did, and the majority of Democrats never have. I agree that Biden should be doing town halls and interviews. I think he will do more now than he would have. But demanding that all of that occur within 5 days when people who have been trying to get Biden out of the race since the day he took office are burning his effigy isn't realistic.
I have not been calling him to get out, nor am I doing it yet. I am calling on him to put the fire out.
He sleeps 100ft from 2 dozen reporters he could have at any point gone and taken questions from them. Hell he could have picked his favorite one and said grab a camera a mic and meet me in the oval in 30 minutes.
He has taken questions from reporters. It's never enough. I'm sorry, with all due respect, most of us here want to find ways to be productive with the cards we have been dealt with.
Lot's of moving the goalposts.
Elite media has many traps for a President. You give a NYT reporter lots of access then he or she has access to others, gets people of the record for a scoop for a future book. The media environment has changed, dramatically. mainstream media is desperately going clicks and compete with social media. so many examples of giving reporters access and they use it to betray sources. NYT ie gets access to senior policymakers and write their tick tock stories but the Biden WH is incredibly and appropriately careful.
Well put. There's probably a reason they've been shunning the Times.
“No campaign, no matter how brilliant their comms, can win a news cycle as irrational, overheated, and malicious as this one.”
I agree, Joe. Keep doing the work and meanwhile the news cycle will eventually exhaust itself and move on to other things. There’s a lot we can do to turn out Dem votes regardless.
There is, I strongly believe, a silent Biden vote out of considerable strength. Yeah, he's old and he has bad days, but this leader has overcome and responded to so many crises including the pandemic.
The NYT believes more in their brand than the American people. Just as they wanted a pulitzer for reporting on iraq and weapons of mass destruction same herre. Remember that reporter was fired and NYT was humiliated having channeled the lies about the Iraq War.
Nobody i know or hear from in all the work I’m doing for this election is dismissing concerns. I don’t know how you conclude that. What we are talking about is strategy - the best way to beat trump, the media frenzy and way too many people /Dems buying into that hysteria.
Alexandra, yes plenty have outright dismissed concerns, but that is not the problem. We have now had 5 days of this news cycle and Biden has not done an unscripted event. Realistically he should have done several by now. Even after the STOTU he had done interviews to shape the narrative. The campaign and admin historically has believed that less is more in the media, and when things are going neutral to good, I agree, but this is a fire you have to put it out and they seem more concerned about talking to donors than the public.
We want to argue about stuff, the talking heads need to talk about something, the relative silence from them on this is the bigger problem than a bad night. They are not showing signs of being able to turn it around. Realistically with the holiday they are going to lose a week and a half at least.
I do hear you. I even agree with you that he needs to do some unscripted events to quiet this. The good news is that he IS, starting this Friday with an interview with George Stephanopoulos. And he's talking with governors today to address concerns. I don't think we think a lot about how hard his job is. Almost all of his days are full, even if we don't know his schedule by heart. I think this is a pretty quick turnaround.
If the concerns were legitimate, sure. They aren't.
You think the same argument could be made about Trump? I don't think he'll make it 4 years
The media will always find something to go on at nauseam when it's a Democrat in the White House.
Keith Olbermann is suggesting that Biden dropping out of the race may be inevitable, even that he should consider resigning in favor of Harris.
https://youtu.be/g-F3yUqdjNc?si=AwVir-goV9V7sRQw
If he drops out do the race and Harris is the replacement, then he likely does resign because that arguably makes it easier to move existing general elections funds to Harris.
Per my post below, I don’t think the money issue should be determinative in picking a replacement if we get to that point.
The polls for Biden replacements seem meaningless at this point as they are largey based on name recognition. The best public orator by far is Gavin Newsom. Despite his flaws, he is clearly the strongest candidate should Biden drop out. California has shortcomings that MAGA will jump all over, but it is an economic, high tech, agricultural, international trade and military powerhouse… a story Newsom knows how to tell powerully and gracefully. And since Americans are largely superficial and focused on optics, he will look great standing next to Trump.
In the event that Biden drops out, a powerful ticket would be Harris-Newsom. As well as Newsom-Harris, for that matter. Regardless, Gavin Newsom is proving to be a powerful voice on the campaign trail. In my opinion, it’s time for all good orators to help turn the news narrative. Pete Buttigieg is another who should be doing lots of campaign events and television interviews. Every single time he’s been on Fox, Pete gets the best of them!
But herein lies the rub on that combination: Isn't there some prohibition against having the Pres and VP from the same state on the same ticket?
Ah, the 12th Amendment – but is it crystal clear?
That's right! They're both from California. My native state.
Except they can’t be from the same state. Get out the vote for Biden-Harris. The primaries are over.
Well, thank you.
I seriously think this whole fiasco could be used as a springboard for either a Biden resurgence or a new candidate leaping ahead of Trump. I know that sounds crazy, but there is just too much energy within Dems to let this election go. I don’t know of a single Dem willing to cede our democracy. Not one.
If last Thursday was an aberration, Biden should stay. If it wasn’t, he should step down and work to ensure the smoothest transition possible. That’s my simple analysis.
I spent 3 hours yesterday legal researching campaign finance laws and reached out to a few folks I know who are experts on the matter. Yes, it’s easier to move money around in the replacement scenario if Harris is the replacement. However, and without getting into the details, there would still be some ability to move existing money to a non-Harris replacement (through party and PACs) and I really doubt the money issue will be the determinative factor in picking a replacement.
Ok, I’ll say it - if we get to the replacement scenario, just fucking put M. Obama on the ticket. As POTUS or VP. Does not matter. Just put her on the ticket, We win. Any ticket with the Obama name versus the Trump name, we win.
Upvote for your excellent first three paragraphs! Michelle Obama is not a willing candidate.
Convince her. Our democracy is at stake.
Hold your horses. If Michelle were on the ticket and that ticket won the election, she would be hounded constantly with charges that she's actually a third term for Barack.
So?
Game it out. How effective do you think she could be with a constant undertow from Barack Obama haters keeping her from being on her feet?
The universe of Obama haters not currently voting for Trump is exceedingly small.
The universe of Obama lovers not currently voting for Biden is likely massive.
See Ipsos poll from yesterday.
OK, we appear to be talking about 2 different scenarios. You seem to be focused on her electability (which I still question), and I'm pointing out the obstacles that would be thrown in her path constantly by the MAGAts and their Russian, et. al., enablers, making her term in office ineffective and more than likely precluding her reelection.
As there's no mechanism to enforce campaign finance laws, are they really laws?
FEC actually has power to levy massive fines and enforce those fines, and make criminal referrals.
Current chairman is GOP.
Would the FCC be hamstring now after the Chevron decision?
If Biden needs - not “made to by the media” but needs to for his health or whatever - to step down, having someone, especially a white male someone, leapfrog over the sitting VP who is our first woman, and woman of color, in that role, will create more ill will than I can possibly express in a few words.
And Michelle Obama IS NOT GOING TO RE-ENTER POLITICS. She hates politics, she’s happy being a retired First Lady, author and influencer.
What we really need to do, especially in light of SCOTUS rulings - which do frighten me much more than anything Biden could say or do, because SCOTUS judges are not elected, and their rulings not as subject to popular opinion* - is present ourselves, as a party, as a united front. Not the party in disarray, not giving Republicans a toe in the door to present themselves as the strong party. We need to be unified and calm, a whole party of Nancy Pelosis if that is a thing.
*Though unpopular SCOTUS rulings can be and often were and are flouted, the Dred Scott ruling and Fugitive slave act being primary.
Pres.Abraham Lincoln ignored Chief Justice Taney. Pres. Andrew Jackson went against the Supreme Court because they had no enforcement power. Not that I encourage that. Just sayin'.
💯. If VP Harris is passed over, it would, rightly so, anger one of the largest, most loyal, most consistent Democratic voters who actually do get out and vote.
Review what happened to Hilary that gave us Trump. The feeding frenzy is appalling. I stand with Biden/Harris and am extremely disappointed with what is happening in the media. MAGA loves this and wants the disarray. Oh but for her emails/oh but for the terrible debate. It makes me sick.
What happened to HRC was the worst negative media frenzy in political history as of then. Every study confirmed this (see Columbia journalism study in particular).
What’s happening now is 10X worse.
The media frenzy is kicking up with each day. Now they’re getting quotes from people that met President Biden at an event and talking about faraway looks etc. (AJC).
It’s like nothing I have seen since the but her emails bs. There needs to be a better response as this is already out of control. The media is forcing this and handing the election (and our country’s future) to trump and Project 2025. I’m deeply troubled by all of this.
Then it's up to us not let them ! Not to em' the satisfaction!!!
It is rough, but I believe a saving grace may be that voters don’t pay as much attention to legacy media outlets like the NYT as they did in 2016.
It’s all media outlets at this point, every single one. Even Huffington Post and MSNBC are piling on at this points It’s an orgy of Biden negativity. We have never seen anything like this in history. HRC in 2016 pales in comparison.
It’s one of the reasons I think Harris cannot be the replacement. She is his VP, and I don’t think it’s a clean enough cut to stop the negativity.
The negativity won't stop regardless of who is at the top of the ticket.
If they're depending on quotes from unimportant people (the Globe led its article with a State Senator who admitted he had wanted Biden gone for years and that nothing Biden could do now would change his mind), that shows they're getting desperate.
Also, this is pretty much identical to what happened in February after the Hur Report. It even started on a Thursday. The media was in a frenzy. The NYT and all these same pundits called on Biden to drop out. Senior Democrats were supposedly "deeply concerned". The polls didn't move, Biden gave a great SOTU a month (a full month! and he declined the Super Bowl interview! and his press conference that night sucked while all of his speeches this weekend have been great!) later, and everyone has since forgotten it ever happened.
I appreciate the calm, focused, and informed comments you have been leaving on these forums among all of the trauma dumping and anxiety. Keep it up!
I actually had forgotten about the Hur Report. Thank you for the reminder.