New Biden Border Plan Working, Twitter and Turkey, Getting to 55, Zelensky Tours Europe

The Monday Newsletter/Political Briefing With Simon - Tues, 1pm EST

Toplines this Monday - DeSantis showed some strength in Iowa this weekend; budget talks are proceeding and there is a high-level White House meeting scheduled for Tuesday; the President heads to Asia on Wednesday for the G7 and other meetings; the President’s new border plan is working, so far; Zelensky visited Rome, Berlin and Paris as a new Ukrainian counteroffensive is believed to be underway; the pro-democracy coalition won in Thailand, and we appear to be headed to a run-off in Turkey (encouraging).

Information Integrity, Twitter and Turkey - One of the main beliefs of this project is that America needs to have a big conversation about the integrity of our daily discourse, and that we, together, must “get louder” to challenge the superiority of Greater MAGA in the information space. That the integrity of our discourse has become far too degraded in America, and that the right is much louder than we are. We can and must do something about both.

This weekend we saw why these efforts matter so much. The new Twitter, under the threat of action by the autocratic Turkish regime (whom Musk’s SpaceX is in business with), throttled or turned off pro-democracy opposition accounts for the final two days of the election. This precedent - caving to an autocratic government and turning off opposition voices without notice, due process or any transparency - is an ominous one for the world. For it means it gives Musk the power to intercede in any election at any time, including our own here next year.

This weekend I called on the US to elevate “information integrity” to the top of the agenda in the G7 and NATO. The new Twitter and broader challenges with surveillance-based social media, AI, and ongoing efforts by foreign states to spread disinformation - all of these things together are threatening our democracy and democracies throughout the world. We need a big conversation, and then, eventually, a plan to do something about it. It is time.

Get to 55, Expanding Our Coalition -Last week the Washington Post had a terrific article, New data shows how little the electorate looks like the population, which makes the case, powerfully, for the national youth voter registration drive I’ve been advocating:

The 2022 midterm elections did not go the way the Republican Party expected. Historical patterns suggested that the party would accrue a hefty majority in the House and regain control of the Senate. Those things didn’t happen for a variety of reasons.

But the party can take solace in one thing: The results would probably have been quite a bit worse if the electorate actually looked like the U.S. population.

It then shares this chart:

We have an opportunity to go big in 2024 due to their extremism, to Get to 55, and seize rhetorical, geographic and demographic real estate they’ve abandoned. So much is possible for us now - as we saw in the battlegrounds in 2022, as we just saw in Wisconsin, as we see in a new Voters for Tomorrow youth poll showing very strong Biden numbers with 18-29 year olds. We need to make 2024 not just about winning, but by running up the score so we can make sure the election becomes understood as a clear and historic repudiation of MAGA.

My Take on Polling 18 Months Out - In a new memo, I make some recommendations on how to be thinking about polling this far away from an election and given what happened with the false red wave last year. Key points:

• Polls Don’t Predict, They Are A Snapshot in Time

• Stick To The Averages, Never Allow A Single Poll Dictate Your Understand

• Polling Has Gotten Expensive and Hard

• The Amount of Public Polling By Right Leaning Outfits Is Increasing

• The WaPo/ABC Poll Was Bad, And Should Not Have Been Released

The May Jobs Report Was Another Strong One, Good Inflation Numbers Last Week - As the President sits down with Congressional leaders and gets ready to head to the G7, he can take pride in

• having overseen the strongest economic recovery from the global shocks of COVID and Ukraine of any G7 economy

• an American economy that in recent months has seen its lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII and its lowest poverty and uninsured rates in our history and very elevated wage gains and new business formation

• once again seeing inflation come down, another sign we are closer to getting to the other side of the disruptions of COVID and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. These are all hopeful signs, and a reminder that Democrats will have a very strong track record to run on next year.

Recent Events

With Democrats Things Get Better, May 2023

Increasing Young Voter Turnout - A Conversation with Laura Brill of The Civics Center (5/4/23)

The Israeli Fight for Democracy - A View from Israel

My Discussion with Donna Deegan, Our Dynamic Candidate for Jacksonville Mayor

Upcoming Events

Tuesday, May 16th, 1pm EST - My Monthly Political Briefing (RSVP Here)

Wednesday, May 24th, 8pm EST - Paid Subscriber Briefing and Hang Out with Simon - Learn More, RSVP

Thursday, June 8th, 1pm EST - The June presentation of With Democrats Things Get Better

Thursday, June 15th, 1pm EST - The June Political Briefing and Discussion With Simon

Wednesday, June 22, 8pm - Hopium Paid Subscriber Briefing and Hangout With Simon

Recent Press and Pods

How the great outdoors transformed Oregon and the fight for the White House - Mark Barabak, LA Times

The Analyst Who Saw Through 2022’s Red Mirage Has a Prediction for 2024 - Greg Sargent, Washington Post

Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024 - Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic

Biden Faces Hurdles To Repeat in 2024 - Francesa Chambers, USA Today

Biden Is Following Newsom’s Lead and Reclaiming The Word ‘Freedom’ - Joe Garofoli, SF Chronicle

The Current Biden Battleground Ad - This ad, “Backbone,” is running in the eight initial battleground states: AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.

Hopium Housekeeping/Welcome New Subscribers! - If you are new to Hopium be sure to read my welcome statement and Ron Brownstein’s interview with me in the Atlantic.  Together they do a good job of explaining why I’ve shuttered NDN and have set up shop here at Substack. For those who like podcasts, this interview with How We Win is also a very good introduction to what we are trying to do here. My big presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better, is the closest thing we have to an orientation for the big arguments we make here, and is the original source for much of our Hopium. It takes about 30 minutes and is worth the time.

By becoming a paid subscriber here, you help provide the resources needed to keep all this work coming, and also get access to private events and materials not available to free subscribers. Only paid subscribers can offer comments and join the lively conversation taking place in our comments section. It’s a good deal, and hope you will consider becoming a paid subscriber today!

For those new to this new political project, welcome! We are glad to have you as part of our early days here at the Hopium Chronicles.

Happy Monday! Keep working hard all - Simon