New CBS Polls Find Biden Gaining, Erasing Trump Leads in Key Battlegrounds

A brief Sunday post. The CNN poll is an outlier and should be treated that way

Friends, I don’t usually post on Sundays but there are some new polls folks are chattering about so here we go……

A new series of polls released by CBS News have very good news for Joe Biden and the Democrats:

• Michigan Biden 51-49

• Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Trump 50-49

These polls represent at least a 4 point Biden gain (and perhaps as much as 6-7 pts) from CBS’ last poll which had the Trump up 52-48 nationally. They also confirm trends I’ve been writing here for weeks now - the election is changing, it’s getting bluer, and Trump can no longer be said to lead either nationally or in the battlegrounds. It is a close, competitive election now that has moved in our direction in recent weeks and we need to put our heads down and together go win this thing. For those following Michigan note this is now the third poll in the last few weeks showing Biden with a slight lead there.

There is also a new CNN poll today showing Trump with a 49-43 national lead. Given that dozens of other national polls have shown the race within the margin of error and many have shown Biden gaining or with leads THIS CNN POLL IS AN OUTLIER and should be treated that way by CNN and other commentators. Any attempt to use the CNN to guide one’s understanding of the election given that dozens of other polls are showing a completely different race (tied) would be journalistic and/or analytical malpractice. A few months ago the Washington Post published a poll that they considered an outlier, and acknowledged it in their article about the poll, pointing out that their data was different from many other recent polls. CNN and other commentators should do the same with this poll.

I will have more for all of you on this tomorrow, but for more on my 2024 election analysis watch/listen to my Friday discussion with Tim Miller of the Bulwark, and check out my Hopium post from yesterday which has new polling analysis and other “new, bluer” election resources.

Why I have you do note that I’ve had to change some of our May events around. So be sure to review the latest schedule here, and register for the events you’d like to attend. There are now 2 events for paid subscribers this week where we will talk about all this.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon