Simon, it's so funny - just as I was reading your comments on yesterday's post and wondering if any Hopium would drop today, right in my inbox comes this post lol. Seriously thank you for the reminder. I know any number of click hungry outlets will have a field day with that CNN poll. As you say, I will in fact, keep calm and campaign on !
I refuse to believe Trump is up in any polls when Nikki Haley - who wasn’t even in the POTUS race as she dropped out! - got a sizable chunk of the Republican vote in the PA primaries.
If memory serves me, I think to get to a mean average one discards the two polar extreme data elements. That said, I have lost patience with pollsters and their biases in question formulating. They are also craftily screening out some voters by types. Land lines? My daughter thinks that landlines have to do with a boat. We need to get the voters out. We need a massive effort on young voters. Clinton had the lead in all the polls. I hope to move on from the polls.
You provide the context, Simon. Some of my Michigan friends freaked out earlier this year with a Detroit News poll showing Trump up by 8 in Michigan.
Fairly useless polling (registered instead of likely voters - and long before folks would pay attention. Look at what’s happened since the SOTU address?
Most folks will start paying attention around Labor Day. By then, the choice will be as clear as light v dark; good v evil.
I think the big issue we have here is this outlier poll is conducted by a news media that can publicize it, bigly. The 20+ polls where Biden leads don't have that kind of exposure.
Simon, I hear you about CNN, next to Fox, the worst news organization, sniping at Biden constantly.
But here is their headline on the website this morning: "More than 60% of voters say Biden's tenure has been a failure," and this subhead: "39% view his presidency so far as a success, but more than half say Trump's term was a success." We need to call them out. How could such a poll be designed to come up with those results. Are we to believe that voters thought Trump did a fine job during COVID and Biden did a lousy job? We all know that the four main (non-Fox) websites (ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC) do not cover the initiatives of the White House and Biden's Administration. And then they give us crap that the Biden people need to do a better job of communication. Bullshit. I see it. You see it, but they won't cover it. If a tree falls in the forest.... I don't think they believe that Trump will do what he is saying he will do, or what is in Project 2025.
It is this kind of information that keeps me coming back to you every time you post on "X" and why I subscribe to your Substack. Of course, Navigator Research is my gold standard, too! Keep up the good work!
A news organization that has a poll at significant variance with other recent polling should cast it as an “outlier” and explain future polling could look different.
I think they polls with Biden down are “clickbait” for us. I refuse to let them change what I do and how I volunteer for Joe. Also, I thought he hit all the right notes at the White House Correspondents Dinner last night.
I am guardedly hopeful that Biden will win in November … these polls showing the race even tied and especially w/ Trump up are simply shocking. However, what IS a problem is that the MAGA types & even “normal” Republicans, will point to these polls as evidence the election itself is “ rigged”… because “ how can it be …”?
That’s exactly why I think these POLLS are rigged. Skewed… I truly think something is very wrong with the polls since all other indicators ( the closed primary votes going to Haley, fundraising numbers for Dems vs. GOP, swing state infrastructure, etc) point to a DEM victory.
Not to mention WOMEN will be voting in numbers never before seen.
Simply shocking that it isn’t 100-0. Trump is a monster and Biden is a man for ALL people not just millionaires.
This is really helpful context. I am constantly reminded to keep the errors of polling in mind and their predictive limitations.
Something I think will change voters minds is when Trump shows up to the presidential debate wearing an ankle bracelet. Please let it be.
Simon, it's so funny - just as I was reading your comments on yesterday's post and wondering if any Hopium would drop today, right in my inbox comes this post lol. Seriously thank you for the reminder. I know any number of click hungry outlets will have a field day with that CNN poll. As you say, I will in fact, keep calm and campaign on !
I refuse to believe Trump is up in any polls when Nikki Haley - who wasn’t even in the POTUS race as she dropped out! - got a sizable chunk of the Republican vote in the PA primaries.
If memory serves me, I think to get to a mean average one discards the two polar extreme data elements. That said, I have lost patience with pollsters and their biases in question formulating. They are also craftily screening out some voters by types. Land lines? My daughter thinks that landlines have to do with a boat. We need to get the voters out. We need a massive effort on young voters. Clinton had the lead in all the polls. I hope to move on from the polls.
Of course, Yahoo led with the CNN post. Clear example of how absurd both CNN and Yahoo are as news sources.
You provide the context, Simon. Some of my Michigan friends freaked out earlier this year with a Detroit News poll showing Trump up by 8 in Michigan.
Fairly useless polling (registered instead of likely voters - and long before folks would pay attention. Look at what’s happened since the SOTU address?
Most folks will start paying attention around Labor Day. By then, the choice will be as clear as light v dark; good v evil.
I think the big issue we have here is this outlier poll is conducted by a news media that can publicize it, bigly. The 20+ polls where Biden leads don't have that kind of exposure.
Simon, I hear you about CNN, next to Fox, the worst news organization, sniping at Biden constantly.
But here is their headline on the website this morning: "More than 60% of voters say Biden's tenure has been a failure," and this subhead: "39% view his presidency so far as a success, but more than half say Trump's term was a success." We need to call them out. How could such a poll be designed to come up with those results. Are we to believe that voters thought Trump did a fine job during COVID and Biden did a lousy job? We all know that the four main (non-Fox) websites (ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC) do not cover the initiatives of the White House and Biden's Administration. And then they give us crap that the Biden people need to do a better job of communication. Bullshit. I see it. You see it, but they won't cover it. If a tree falls in the forest.... I don't think they believe that Trump will do what he is saying he will do, or what is in Project 2025.
Thank you Simon for ALL your work, I am following all you do on Twitter too and tv, I hope you get some sleep...
I think the votes for Joe might be even slightly higher as many on the Republican side are afraid to be too open about any switch to the other party..
Thank you, Simon!
It is this kind of information that keeps me coming back to you every time you post on "X" and why I subscribe to your Substack. Of course, Navigator Research is my gold standard, too! Keep up the good work!
I agree.
A news organization that has a poll at significant variance with other recent polling should cast it as an “outlier” and explain future polling could look different.
I think they polls with Biden down are “clickbait” for us. I refuse to let them change what I do and how I volunteer for Joe. Also, I thought he hit all the right notes at the White House Correspondents Dinner last night.
President Biden advised us to “ move past the horse race numbers”. For those who haven’t seen
his full remarks at the White Correspondents’ Dinner it’s ~ 10 minutes. He rocked it ! 💙
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBtXUXknvtE
I am guardedly hopeful that Biden will win in November … these polls showing the race even tied and especially w/ Trump up are simply shocking. However, what IS a problem is that the MAGA types & even “normal” Republicans, will point to these polls as evidence the election itself is “ rigged”… because “ how can it be …”?
That’s exactly why I think these POLLS are rigged. Skewed… I truly think something is very wrong with the polls since all other indicators ( the closed primary votes going to Haley, fundraising numbers for Dems vs. GOP, swing state infrastructure, etc) point to a DEM victory.
Not to mention WOMEN will be voting in numbers never before seen.