WI, MI, and PA all have big cities where Black people are the largest racial group (Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia). A substantial increase in new registrations for Black voters is a good thing in pretty much all the swing states, since they all have sizable Black populations- in terms of states with large Black populations, Georgia is ranked 3rd, North Carolina is ranked 8th, Michigan is 15th, Pennsylvania 19th, Nevada 23rd, and Wisconsin 29th.
Hi Ruussell. I downloaded the US Census analysis of the 2020 election. 10 million more women voted than men (82 million to 72 million). Women preferred Biden and men preferred Trump. I feel that the margins may be even larger in 2024 because of 2022 SCOTUS decision overturning Roe. Instead of a 53% to 47% ratio of women to men, I want to go for 55%. This is my personal version of "get to 55%". Thank you for supporting democracy in the USA. You rock.
Russell, as you are not a resident of the US, or a citizen, I am going to respectfully ask you to stop asking questions of people here in this community, including me, UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION. We have an election to go win here in the US and spending time answering what has become your frequent and sometimes lengthy questions is not a good use of my time or anyone else's time here. As someone who wants Trump defeated I am sure you understand. Thank you. S
I have removed Russell's posting ability for one week, and when he returns I am expecting him to respect the fact we have an election to go win and work to do. Peppering us with questions all day long requiring people to spend time tracking down data, etc is not a good use of our collective time right now. In the spring, maybe. Not now. Thanks all.
Ugh, the YouTube thumbnail for this new ad reads "Kamala Harris cut housing". The word "costs" isn't in the thumbnail. Any way to get the campaign to fix that???
Yes, it does say costs after you click it, but not everyone will click it. It's like a terribly misleading headline in a newspaper--most people will never read the article.
I just filled out the form you suggested and told them about the issue. Hopefully many more people are doing same. Not meaning to make too much of it, but it should be corrected.
I'd like to understand how the $45 million/month from Musk will affect the Dems money. It sounds like the Musk money is PAC money? Also, all the misinformation from Musk. Is there anything we can do about it? Please advise.
Musk says he's not giving $45M/month. He's definitely contributing a lot, though, and he's spending it on Republican GOTV efforts. But in my completely-ignorant opinion, it takes more than lots of money to make organizing happen... especially when the leader that you're organizing for (DJT) openly scorns the very concept of organizing.
Our side has the volunteer army and the enthusiasm, and without those two things, all the money in the world can't mobilize squat. If we keep working hard every day, we're gonna outshine every dollar Musk throws into his stupid GOTV PAC.
Okay Hopium Peeps! Listen up for more great news to put the cherry on top of this excellent sundae of campaign news Simon scooped for us. This weekend when I was running a canvass in NC for the campaign I had a guy show up FROM PENNSYLVANIA to do a turf. He was visiting friends here in Durham and has been canvassing back at home in PA but wanted to help here. Sean from PA, you are my hero! After the canvass, he got into his car and started the drive back up 85 to go home. Sean is an inspiration and clearly knows that when we fight, we win!
Colleen, maybe I'll see you out there. There's an important canvass Mayor Williams will be working on Saturday at noon that Durham Dems is running. If not, I'll see you eventually and we can compare notes. Take care, Bull City friend!
Although the link is through Amazon, the cards come from a small business. I don’t know if this will work for you, but thought I would put it out there.
I get my postcards from Etsy from the Voter Mailbag shop. The cards are high quality and not glossy. They ship fast. I use Papermate gel pens. I've been doing postcards since 2020.
The ad $$ for Dems needs to be on social media that reaches young voters and not be dependent on algorithms to get the ads to them‼️The future belongs to young people who need to vote and bring Dems along with them!
Would Mr. Bonier have any insight into whether Dems not having done much door knocking in 2020 (due to Covid), while Republicans did, affected the margins of that election? It seems like a pretty big factor but have not seen any research on it, and it seems like people just forget about that. Obviously that won't be the case this time.
As time proceeds toward election day, the results of your strategy and prediction of how this election will unfold and succeed is becoming increasingly apparent to me. All along you've been saying the Dobbs decision broke something in the republican party and that dems are in a superior position compared to the 2016 and 2020 elections. We have out performed compared to the polling in recent elections and this is clearly what is happening now in the Big Election.
The game is unfolding just the way you wrote it up in the playbook!
You have nailed it! You could not have been more prescient and RIGHT, and I want to say how absolutely gratified I am to be on the smart team in this contest. We are kicking f....ing their ass!
That's not the Hopium spirit as I understand it. "We are winning and they are losing." We are close to 270 electoral votes and they are not. When we are ahead, we are energized to win. Conversely, being behind can be demoralizing.
I’ve heard it phrased as both “work like an underdog” and “work as if you’re behind.” On the surface they sound similar but “underdog” implies a scrappy can-do attitude but “behind” implies we’re losing. At Hopium we reject the latter. I think the campaign specifically chose the word underdog because they want to keep people both motivated and cheerful. Who doesn’t love an underdog?
Last call for writing postcards with RAC-FL.✍️No donation required.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment.
Christian Bouzy is convinced that "Florida is in play!" Judging from Kamala Harris’ Campaign tour, she and her team share that evaluation. This November, I expect that Rick Scott to be designated as "outgoing senator" – and for Ron DeSantis and Florida’s MAGA Republican usurpers of power to be in for a shocking surprise!
Lots of good data in Bouzy’s Twitter/X feed. (Nitter is a way to access it.)
"Florida is in play, and we have already heard your explanation, Evan. You will talk about the misleading 1,000,000+ voter registration advantage and higher Republican enthusiasm that doesn't exist. The fact Democrats are campaigning on Trump's home turf is proof it's in play."
It'll be interesting to see what happens in Florida. Postcardstovoters dot org has been doing Florida VBM for at least two years, helping FL Dems register to VBM with just a single phone call to their county elections supervisor. What with the abortion ballot issue in Florida, things might go very well for our side!
If you sign up for a Hopium session on Thursdays you will receive them by email. Here is what they also said in correspondence.
"How to get more addresses
Great News! If you write postcards with Markers for Democracy (MFD) or Postcards4VA, the set-up of WinningTheHouse.com should look familiar. Both of these groups use the same platform and your existing Log In Username and Password should work on Winning the House platform without the need to set up a new account. Log In and you can start downloading addresses immediately.
Note: If you have a MFD or Postcards4VA account & cannot set up a WinningTheHouse.com account, the data migration may have pre-dated your account set-up. Just set up a new account!
If you do not have an existing account, you can get additional addresses by setting up an account with Winning the House. Use the same email you used to register for the Thursday night Zoom program. Once you've set up an account, the program will send you an email asking you to confirm your email address. After you've confirmed your email address, you will be able to request addresses."
I've been spreading the facts about Trump's role in the Afghan withdrawal far and wide. It's important to keep the misinformation being spread neutralized which the visuals of the withdrawal can make real.
Simon--- I've heard you invoke the "Vote on Day 1" mantra here, but it was in your Closing Strong video convo with Tara McGowan where I heard you bullet point exactly WHY it's important, and I really got it. Do you think you could create a bulleted cheat sheet you could share with your network? Great to have a simple and powerful advice like that to share and promote! P.S. Great work always!
I just saw that Simon did bullet point the Vote on Day 1 here:
Voting Early benefits, the candidate, the voters, and encourages others to vote (and vote early!).
> For the candidate and campaign, it means they can stop contacting the voter about voting through phone banks or canvassing. The campaign can then focus its money and volunteer time on other less consistent voters.
> For the voter, the benefits include receiving fewer voting reminders from the campaign, avoiding long lines on Election Day (remember those Presidential election length lines!), and (if voting early & not on Day 1) - choosing the day to vote that’s convenient for the voter.
Social Influence. A strong early vote conveys enthusiasm, encourages other Dems to vote early and creates some social pressure on lower propensity voters to join their neighbors and turn out to vote. Lower propensity voters may end up voting early on their own because they see others doing it.
> Media Coverage. Another important benefit is the morale building that results as large early voting numbers start getting reported by the media. This sends a message to the district, state and the nation that Democrats are voting in large numbers, and it sends a clear message throughout the Early Voting period that our democracy is working as intended.
😂
Love the Marsh fam!!
WI, MI, and PA all have big cities where Black people are the largest racial group (Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia). A substantial increase in new registrations for Black voters is a good thing in pretty much all the swing states, since they all have sizable Black populations- in terms of states with large Black populations, Georgia is ranked 3rd, North Carolina is ranked 8th, Michigan is 15th, Pennsylvania 19th, Nevada 23rd, and Wisconsin 29th.
Hi Ruussell. I downloaded the US Census analysis of the 2020 election. 10 million more women voted than men (82 million to 72 million). Women preferred Biden and men preferred Trump. I feel that the margins may be even larger in 2024 because of 2022 SCOTUS decision overturning Roe. Instead of a 53% to 47% ratio of women to men, I want to go for 55%. This is my personal version of "get to 55%". Thank you for supporting democracy in the USA. You rock.
Millions of unrepresented women trend Democratic. Here's the data for FT 6 in 2022. https://www.fieldteam6.org/impact-report-2021-22-d1
Extrapolate those numbers to 2024. Here is the 2024 projection. https://www.fieldteam6.org/fund-the-mission
Russell, as you are not a resident of the US, or a citizen, I am going to respectfully ask you to stop asking questions of people here in this community, including me, UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION. We have an election to go win here in the US and spending time answering what has become your frequent and sometimes lengthy questions is not a good use of my time or anyone else's time here. As someone who wants Trump defeated I am sure you understand. Thank you. S
I have removed Russell's posting ability for one week, and when he returns I am expecting him to respect the fact we have an election to go win and work to do. Peppering us with questions all day long requiring people to spend time tracking down data, etc is not a good use of our collective time right now. In the spring, maybe. Not now. Thanks all.
Ugh, the YouTube thumbnail for this new ad reads "Kamala Harris cut housing". The word "costs" isn't in the thumbnail. Any way to get the campaign to fix that???
The campaign could just cut "Harris"and that would fix it: "Kamala cut housing costs."
Does anyone know how to get that info back to the mothership?!
You could fill out a contact sheet at https://kamalaharris.com/contact-us/
Although it looks that way in the thumbnail, as soon as you click on the video it clearly says housing costs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjTjb63DgY8
Yes, it does say costs after you click it, but not everyone will click it. It's like a terribly misleading headline in a newspaper--most people will never read the article.
I just filled out the form you suggested and told them about the issue. Hopefully many more people are doing same. Not meaning to make too much of it, but it should be corrected.
I noticed that. Eek!!
Simon, I had no idea about the different ad rates between the campaigns and the SuperPACs. Terrific info.
Learning something new every day!
I'd like to understand how the $45 million/month from Musk will affect the Dems money. It sounds like the Musk money is PAC money? Also, all the misinformation from Musk. Is there anything we can do about it? Please advise.
Musk says he's not giving $45M/month. He's definitely contributing a lot, though, and he's spending it on Republican GOTV efforts. But in my completely-ignorant opinion, it takes more than lots of money to make organizing happen... especially when the leader that you're organizing for (DJT) openly scorns the very concept of organizing.
Our side has the volunteer army and the enthusiasm, and without those two things, all the money in the world can't mobilize squat. If we keep working hard every day, we're gonna outshine every dollar Musk throws into his stupid GOTV PAC.
Ignore it. Focus on electing Harris-Walz.
"Do more. Worry less." That's a big part of Hopium.
Okay Hopium Peeps! Listen up for more great news to put the cherry on top of this excellent sundae of campaign news Simon scooped for us. This weekend when I was running a canvass in NC for the campaign I had a guy show up FROM PENNSYLVANIA to do a turf. He was visiting friends here in Durham and has been canvassing back at home in PA but wanted to help here. Sean from PA, you are my hero! After the canvass, he got into his car and started the drive back up 85 to go home. Sean is an inspiration and clearly knows that when we fight, we win!
Christine B YOU are also an inspiration, because you are ALWAYS canvassing and registering voters. LFG, my friend.
LFG!!!! For real! Thanks, SandyC!
GREAT news and thanks so much for all you're doing!
Christine and Sean, Colleen in Durham thanks you! 💙
Colleen, maybe I'll see you out there. There's an important canvass Mayor Williams will be working on Saturday at noon that Durham Dems is running. If not, I'll see you eventually and we can compare notes. Take care, Bull City friend!
Wonderful news!!
The links don't seem to be working for postcard purchase. Is it possible to give us the full address on where to order postcards. Thanks.
Kathryn, here is the link I used:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0842V831R?ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_fed_asin_title
Although the link is through Amazon, the cards come from a small business. I don’t know if this will work for you, but thought I would put it out there.
I bought some colorful, inexpensive postcards on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=amazon+voting+postcards&crid=24RL33J1QINCU&sprefix=amazon+voting+postcard%2Caps%2C102&ref=nb_sb_noss_1
Do you have a list of Dems to mail them to?
http://winningthehouse.com/
From Markers for Democracy
https://markersfordemocracy.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d5fd96e36d548227bcb7555ff&id=a24f638af0&e=374c76a318
https://markersfordemocracy.ourproshop.com/
I get my postcards from Etsy from the Voter Mailbag shop. The cards are high quality and not glossy. They ship fast. I use Papermate gel pens. I've been doing postcards since 2020.
The ad $$ for Dems needs to be on social media that reaches young voters and not be dependent on algorithms to get the ads to them‼️The future belongs to young people who need to vote and bring Dems along with them!
The campaign has some smart young folks working on that.
Would Mr. Bonier have any insight into whether Dems not having done much door knocking in 2020 (due to Covid), while Republicans did, affected the margins of that election? It seems like a pretty big factor but have not seen any research on it, and it seems like people just forget about that. Obviously that won't be the case this time.
500 post cards for Georgia complete!
Awesome, thank you! I got a late start but finishing 100 today! Proud DEM from GA!
That’s what I’m talking about! 👍
Good for you!!!!
You're amazing!!!
Where did you get the lists?
I reached out to Postcards to Swing States
Activate America also has some new postcard campaigns up.
The above plus Bluewave postcards
Awesome job! 115 complete for PA here...85 to go!
Simon,
As time proceeds toward election day, the results of your strategy and prediction of how this election will unfold and succeed is becoming increasingly apparent to me. All along you've been saying the Dobbs decision broke something in the republican party and that dems are in a superior position compared to the 2016 and 2020 elections. We have out performed compared to the polling in recent elections and this is clearly what is happening now in the Big Election.
The game is unfolding just the way you wrote it up in the playbook!
You have nailed it! You could not have been more prescient and RIGHT, and I want to say how absolutely gratified I am to be on the smart team in this contest. We are kicking f....ing their ass!
curious about the whole we are the underdog meme, it this a technique to make sure voters vote?
That's not the Hopium spirit as I understand it. "We are winning and they are losing." We are close to 270 electoral votes and they are not. When we are ahead, we are energized to win. Conversely, being behind can be demoralizing.
I’ve heard it phrased as both “work like an underdog” and “work as if you’re behind.” On the surface they sound similar but “underdog” implies a scrappy can-do attitude but “behind” implies we’re losing. At Hopium we reject the latter. I think the campaign specifically chose the word underdog because they want to keep people both motivated and cheerful. Who doesn’t love an underdog?
Well since Kamala says we're underdogs, I just take it at face value and work harder! 🥥🌴💪
Team Harris Reproductive Freedom Tour starts today in Palm Beach,Fl.🚐 Rick Scott’s challenger, Debbie Mucarsel Powell, is a featured speaker.⬇️
https://www.wptv.com/news/politics/harris-campaign-to-begin-fighting-for-reproductive-freedom-bus-tour-in-palm-beach-county
Last call for writing postcards with RAC-FL.✍️No donation required.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment.
https://rac.org/take-action/rac-your-state/rac-fl/guidelines-writing-postcards-floridians-about-reproductive-freedom
Weekly phonebanking with Floridians Protecting Freedom.📲
https://www.mobilize.us/yes4florida/
Got my Yes on 4 t-shirt and yard sign.👕🪧
https://store.floridiansprotectingfreedom.com/
Christian Bouzy is convinced that "Florida is in play!" Judging from Kamala Harris’ Campaign tour, she and her team share that evaluation. This November, I expect that Rick Scott to be designated as "outgoing senator" – and for Ron DeSantis and Florida’s MAGA Republican usurpers of power to be in for a shocking surprise!
Lots of good data in Bouzy’s Twitter/X feed. (Nitter is a way to access it.)
https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy/
"Florida is in play, and we have already heard your explanation, Evan. You will talk about the misleading 1,000,000+ voter registration advantage and higher Republican enthusiasm that doesn't exist. The fact Democrats are campaigning on Trump's home turf is proof it's in play."
– Christian Bouzy
It'll be interesting to see what happens in Florida. Postcardstovoters dot org has been doing Florida VBM for at least two years, helping FL Dems register to VBM with just a single phone call to their county elections supervisor. What with the abortion ballot issue in Florida, things might go very well for our side!
Go Team Hopium!!
Thanks. I just ordered postcards from RAC-FL.
If we order the Vote On Day 1 cards, how do we obtain a mailing list?
http://winningthehouse.com/
For further questions mail to :WinningTheHouse2024@gmail.com
If you sign up for a Hopium session on Thursdays you will receive them by email. Here is what they also said in correspondence.
"How to get more addresses
Great News! If you write postcards with Markers for Democracy (MFD) or Postcards4VA, the set-up of WinningTheHouse.com should look familiar. Both of these groups use the same platform and your existing Log In Username and Password should work on Winning the House platform without the need to set up a new account. Log In and you can start downloading addresses immediately.
Note: If you have a MFD or Postcards4VA account & cannot set up a WinningTheHouse.com account, the data migration may have pre-dated your account set-up. Just set up a new account!
If you do not have an existing account, you can get additional addresses by setting up an account with Winning the House. Use the same email you used to register for the Thursday night Zoom program. Once you've set up an account, the program will send you an email asking you to confirm your email address. After you've confirmed your email address, you will be able to request addresses."
I've been spreading the facts about Trump's role in the Afghan withdrawal far and wide. It's important to keep the misinformation being spread neutralized which the visuals of the withdrawal can make real.
Here is a great summary of "Afghanistan Withdrawal Facts". Utterly damning to Trump!
https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media%2FGV7-ITHW4AAE3hV.jpg
And you’re right: those facts should be spread far and wide. What Trump did was sabotage and borderline treason.
Simon--- I've heard you invoke the "Vote on Day 1" mantra here, but it was in your Closing Strong video convo with Tara McGowan where I heard you bullet point exactly WHY it's important, and I really got it. Do you think you could create a bulleted cheat sheet you could share with your network? Great to have a simple and powerful advice like that to share and promote! P.S. Great work always!
Kim, you can do it yourself, copying Simon’s points fm the video convo! Great idea.
I just saw that Simon did bullet point the Vote on Day 1 here:
Voting Early benefits, the candidate, the voters, and encourages others to vote (and vote early!).
> For the candidate and campaign, it means they can stop contacting the voter about voting through phone banks or canvassing. The campaign can then focus its money and volunteer time on other less consistent voters.
> For the voter, the benefits include receiving fewer voting reminders from the campaign, avoiding long lines on Election Day (remember those Presidential election length lines!), and (if voting early & not on Day 1) - choosing the day to vote that’s convenient for the voter.
Social Influence. A strong early vote conveys enthusiasm, encourages other Dems to vote early and creates some social pressure on lower propensity voters to join their neighbors and turn out to vote. Lower propensity voters may end up voting early on their own because they see others doing it.
> Media Coverage. Another important benefit is the morale building that results as large early voting numbers start getting reported by the media. This sends a message to the district, state and the nation that Democrats are voting in large numbers, and it sends a clear message throughout the Early Voting period that our democracy is working as intended.
> When We Vote Early, We WIN!