New Polls Show People Ain't Buying What Trump Is Selling, Loss Of Tariff Revenue = Big Problem For GOP, DHS Whistleblower:"They Lied"

Honoring Ukraine's extraordinary courage, sacrifice, and success

Morning all. Big day. Lot’s to cover. Let’s get to it!

Yesterday, in my post A Slower Economy, Higher Prices, Degraded Health Care, Pretti And Good, Epstein Coverup, Unprecedented Corruption, Unending Chaos - The State Of Our Union Is Troubled, I shared lots of data showing how poorly things are going under Trump, and how unhappy the American people are with him and his regime. Got some more data this morning:

Trump has the worst jobs record of any President since the Cold War ended (and the worst since Hoover):

Here’s the data going back to Hoover. Second time with Trump is clearly not a charm:

Hopium Chronicles, with assist from Claude AI

You can see the impact Trump’s tariffs have had on prices in this chart of tracking PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge:

So last year, Trump, the Republicans, and MAHA looked at the encouraging progress we’ve made in lowering the uninsured rate to it’s lowest level in decades and decided nope, we cannot have that. They made savage cuts to the ACA and Medicaid, and are now on track to go from 27m uninsured today to 42m by 2034:

In my post yesterday I showed how unpopular Trump and his agenda are heading into the State of the Union. Well we’ve gotten three new polls in the last 24 hours with Trump at 36%-37% and net disapproval over 20 points:

• 36%-63% (-27) CNN/SSRS (Adults)

• 36%-62% (-26) ARG (Adults and Registered Voters)

• 37%-59% (-22) Strength In Numbers/Verasight (Registered Voters)

Here’s the summary of the New Strength in Numbers poll. Ugly as it gets:

• Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% among registered voters — a 10-point margin and the widest lead since we started this tracking poll

• Presidential approval: 37% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance; 59% disapprove (net -22). Trump’s approval among political independents is just 20% in our data.

• No positive issues left: Trump’s approval on border security — his one remaining bright spot — dropped from net +4 to net 0 over the last month. He is now underwater or even on every issue we test.

• Trump approval on government funding collapses: Approval on government funding and social programs fell 7 points to net -26, the sharpest single-issue decline this month. Trump’s approval on health care also fell.

• Spending priorities: Given a hypothetical $75 billion to spend on something, just 5% of Americans would spend it on immigration enforcement. 31% chose reducing grocery and housing costs.

• Direction of country: Only 10% say things are going well in America. 52% say things are going poorly and major changes are needed.

He’s a live shot of the SOTU prep in the Oval Office this morning:

Super lawyer Neal Katyal has an important op-ed in the Washington Post today called (gift link): Tariffs were illegal. The delayed refunds are wrong. The government said small businesses would be made whole. It’s time to pay up. Here is how it begins:

When the U.S. government makes a representation in federal court, it is not a talking point. It is a commitment.

In the landmark tariff litigation decided by the Supreme Court on Friday, that commitment was explicit: to give refunds if President Donald Trump’s tariffs were declared illegal.

On behalf of small businesses, the Liberty Justice Center and I challenged the tariffs. Across the country, businesses paid billions in unlawful duties. At several points along the way, government lawyers assured judges that there would be no “harm” in allowing tariff collection to continue during the appeal process because duties later invalidated could be refunded — with interest. Businesses would be made whole. Indeed, after I argued the case before the Supreme Court on Nov. 5, the government doubled down on that promise in filings in lower court.

Those assurances carried weight. They were likely central to the appeals courts’ willingness to allow tariff collection to continue while the litigation advanced. Judges relied on the government’s representation that the injury was temporary and repairable. And our small businesses relied on it.

Now the Supreme Court has ruled, and the tariffs have been invalidated. Yet Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are suggesting that refunds could take years, entangled in further litigation and administrative delay.

This is wrong. The government cannot tell courts that refunds are simple and inevitable when seeking relief — and then imply they are complex and distant when the time comes to pay. The rule of law does not operate on shifting premises. If judicial assurances are treated as temporary litigation tactics rather than binding commitments, the institutional credibility of the United States suffers.

On Tuesday, I am launching a task force composed of trade law experts and litigators to get these refunds back. We will be filing legal papers that detail the course of action ahead. The lower courts retain authority to enforce their judgments, including a permanent injunction granted on May 28. The Supreme Court has the power to ensure that its mandate is executed. And customs law provides mechanisms for refunding unlawfully collected duties through the liquidation and reliquidation process administered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection — that is, the agency’s routine final calculation and, when necessary, recalculation of duties owed on imported goods. Courts order such refunds regularly in trade cases.

As he explains, refunding this “taxation without representation” would stimulate an economy that has slowed under the weight of the tariffs:

Refunded dollars will be invested in plants, equipment, payroll and inventory. They will finance growth. In many cases, they will allow businesses to lower prices that were artificially inflated by tariffs. That money will circulate here — not overseas.

So the tariffs are illegal, unconstitutional, wildly unpopular, angering our allies, and have clearly harmed the economy. Abandoning the tariffs and refunding the money would help the economy, and help his plummeting approval rating. So why isn’t he doing it?

For as we discussed yesterday - he needs the money to pay for his tax cuts and his ICE expansion. For without this tariff revenue the entire premise of the big ugly bill starts to unravel, along with the two projects most important to him - tax cuts for himself and his friends, and the establishment of ICE as a domestic terror force. So he is holding on to the revenue already collected - illegally - and has created a new illegal and temporary tariff to grab revenue, even for a few months, to delay the now inevitable unraveling of his entire domestic agenda.

He is also, it appears, getting very serious pushback from the Pentagon on whatever the f-ck he thinks he’s doing in Iran. Look at this post. He’s descending deeper into madness (melting!):

As opposition to ICE and his terror regime explodes across the country, yesterday, in explosive testimony at another Blumenthal-Garcia shadow hearing, a whistleblower explains how the Trump regime has turned ICE from a “law enforcement” agency into a lawless one. Just watch this. It’s incredible:

The regime is weakening. Trump has lost the consent of the governed. Defiance is spreading. Our opposition movement is growing stronger. And we need to keep fighting as hard as we can everyone……

On Feb 24, 2022, Russia escalated its war against Ukraine (one that began in 2014 with the seizure of Crimea). 4 years ago today. He’s something I pulled from Bluesky from a prominent Ukrainian commentator, Denys From Ukraine:

Four years ago, the world was divided into “before” and “after.” On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. It came with tanks, missiles, and the certainty that Ukraine could be broken in days. It was wrong.

Over these four years, Ukraine has lost thousands of its best people – soldiers and civilians, men and women, children and the elderly. Cities destroyed. Homes reduced to ruins. Millions of lives shattered. The price of our freedom has been measured in human lives.

But Ukraine stood. And Ukraine still stands. We learned to live with air-raid sirens. To work under fire. To love more deeply than ever before. We proved that freedom is a choice we are willing to defend at any cost.

Today, we remember those who were killed and honor their memory. We thank everyone who continues to defend Ukraine. And we know this much: this war will end, it must end with a just and lasting peace. Eternal memory to the fallen. Honor and gratitude to the living.

May we honor the bravery, sacrifice, and success of the Ukrainian people today by recommitting to our core mission here at Hopium - to do the work, together ensure a new birth of freedom, here and everywhere, in the decade ahead.

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!

So, my friends, this remarkable community has, amazingly, incredibly, in the 17 hours since we launched an expansion of our Winning The House campaign raised more than $65,000!

Lots of Fire Horse energy here at Hopium this week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So grateful to be in community with all of you. Truly. There are days where your passion, grit, determination, and patriotism overwhelm me. This is one of those days. Thank you all.

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $242,100 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10). We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew!

This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing in late March.

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $380,400 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $37,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

Winning Ohio - $61,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $79,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $132,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Keep working hard everyone. The momentum is with us, and we need to keep fighting as hard as we can - Simon