The performance of the Democratic Party in 2022 was remarkable, historic and spells trouble for the GOP in this year and next
I love your polling data analysis. There are so many bad, biased, narrative based, and misleading polls out in the media, I value you as a source of accurate and clear polling information. Thank you!
Crushing MAGA at the ballot box is music to my ears. Coalition building also makes a great deal of sense because we are going to have to find common ground for problem solving once MAGA is gone.
Appreciate your analysis, but I have a couple questions. You say that Dems won in AZ because they won several statewide offices. However, the congressional delegation went from 5 D, 4 R to 6 R, 3 D and both the state senate and house remained narrowly in control of the republicans. Still much work to do there. As a resident of CA, I wonder what happened here. Several Dem + congressional districts elected Reps. Did the stories of a red wave deter more accomplished Dems from seeking office? Did Dems do a poor job of GOTV? Did the campaigns for congress focus on the wrong issues?
New York was a 2022 disaster for several reasons:
1. Hochul's hugely financed but spiritless campaign against a pure MAGA Republican kept Dem turnout to less than 45%.
2. She didn't know how to deal with the crime issue until it was too late
3. Abortion didn't play for Dems and against Republicans because N.Y. law already supports abortion rights, so lots of prochoice folks, bored by the4 Hochul campaign, simply didn't vote
4. In Jay Jacobs we have what must be the worst Dem. state leader extant but he was rewarded for the failed '22 campaign with a new contract. Unfortunately, none of our elected leaders challenged Jacobs'
reappointment. New York needs campaign professionalism and with Jacobs we're stuck same old dumb.
Not even a red mirage AFAICT, tho' it seems things in AZ, CA, and elsewhere did have "spots" of surprising performance for the GOP, or am I misreading that?
Please comment on recent polling showing that independents have increased as a percentage of the electorate, and that they are more likely to lean Republican than Democrat.
I think it was a short piece that I cannot find. But this is more complete. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/12/voting-demographics-democrats-republicans/
I wish your stats could be applied to my state of Ohio. I'm not sure what happened here, but Tim Ryan should be our Jr. Senator, not the racist jd vance. Seems the DNC didn't care enough, and those of us who did just couldn't sway the "Cletus'" living along the Ohio River. We're fast becoming the Florida of the North, and I'm not too confident in the upcoming Aug 8th "special" election.
Love the economy focus and the clear, compelling charts and stats. To add to that, we can all work to contextualize the numbers. As an example, Chris Jackson tweeted: “Thanks to @POTUS @JoeBiden, we now have an unemployment rate lower than Trump's, an inflation rate lower than Reagan's, and a NATO alliance more united than ever in world history.”
Thanks for the link to the Brookings analysis of the youth vote. Reading through that, three questions come to mind:
1) Looking at party preference by age, race, and gender is useful. But I'd like to see those same breakouts with a rural / urban overlay. From what we saw from CIRCLE after the 2020 vote, geography matters immensely.
2) The chart that shows how "blue" Plurals and Millennials are, versus the "red" of Gen X, Boomers, and Silents is instructive. But to answer the question (or perhaps dispel the myth?) of whether people naturally move to the right as they age, it would be interesting to see a time-lapse of this chart, tracking voters over time. (That is, the same cohort as it has aged over the past several decades.)
3) To get to 55, and pump up the vote of Plurals and Millennials, we need to work on both registration and GOTV. But an eye-opener for me (from your interview with Laura Brill, I think) is that young registered voters turn out at almost the same level as older voters, but far fewer are registered. In other words, we have a registration problem, not a turnout problem. If this is in fact true, then I think we need to be louder about it.
I'm sure that's true.