It is not as easy as many seem to think. Biden really does have to juggle different voting blocks, and also has to try to do what's right. Today at my daughter's graduation there was some Palestinian stuff going on; the student speaker just had to bring it up ( though he also threw in Ukraine and Myanmar and kept it to students in those places not being able to study, or something like that ) and that got huge cheers. When a student unfurled a Palestinian flag the crowd went nuts. His family was right behind me. I bit my tongue, hard, because this day was not about me, it was about the students. My wife graciously offered to take their picture with their son when he came around later( he wasn't carrying the flag at that point ) but he did have a stole on as did many of the other students, including my daughter, who wore ones representing their heritage. This is Rutgers. There are a lot of Jewish students and staff. But at least there was no anti-semitism or remarks of that nature, and truthfully, by not making a bigger fuss over it, the moment passed and things moved on. There are many people opposed to Biden's helping Israel and many who support it , it is what it is. We hope for a settlement soon, the world needs one, as the forces of destabilization grow more powerful each day we don't have one.
The majority of Dem voters are not Jewish in Vermont or Maryland - or much of any place outside of a few districts. Jewish Dems are no doubt an important part of the coalition but not a majority.
As others have pointed out, I would argue Biden is underrated as a chess player, so to speak. When he's in a tough situation - just as others have written him off, ready to declare him dead in the water- he has frequently outmaneuvered. I put a lot of this on his experience ( imagine that ! ) as a politician whom actually, lemme think, knows how the various bodies of government operate ? Not to mention Jen O'Malley Dillon and all the other people he has surrounded himself with are very helpful too. I suspect we haven't seen his last move in this very complicated mess. Biden walks a tightrope much better than many give him credit for.
My wife heard that and then looked for an official statement or confirmation on United Nation sites. The UN is certainly not putting that numerical reduction out there in an obvious and transparent manner. The honest thing would be a press release from the relevant UN agency.
Instead, she said, you can only surmise it by comparing graphics posted on two different days. Essentially, the UN has hidden it. If a journalist does a text search, they will quite simply come up empty.
Thank you for your insights as I must confess that the NYT polling results were unnerving. I do understand that polls are snapshots and not necessarily predictive, and could not agree more that the headline was, at best, provocative. I take my anxiety and direct it towards letter writing for Vote Forward.
I do have a question: Mindful that presidents are elected by the Electoral College, are the national polls showing Biden’s strength among 18-28 year olds applicable to the swing states referenced by The NY Times?
Simon, congrats on your analysis being given extensive coverage in The Guardian’s Live Blog! Multiple Tweets are reproduced, with a link to the Hopium Chronicles. Great to see your correction of the NYT’s slanted narrative gaining traction!
After seeing the NYT's "Breaking News" this morning, I started waiting for Simon's next post to help me not get "blown around" by yet another misleading blast from the NYT. While waiting, I reread and listened to Saturday's post, https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidence-of-biden-strength-wlikely. Doing this was a mental health measure, given that this is indeed the best writing you have yet done, Simon!
Also helpful: An email a few minutes ago that 200 postcards are coming my way from Postcards to Swing States (turnoutpac.org/postcards).
Do More, Worry Less! (And turn off "Breaking News" notifications from the New York Times.)
I'm one of those people who gets blown around by the latest scare headline. Unfortunately, the headline jumped out at me as I opened the app this morning to play Wordle. I very much needed the grounding that today's Hopium entry provides.
It's up to all of us to help make sure that malarkey doesn't stick. Maybe I'm wrong BUT I feel like whomever, or whatever (Republicans, Publications, Billionaires who destroy social media platforms whom every one including me thought was cool back in the day for helping mainstream electric cars ) tries to taint President Biden has had little luck in doing so - Thank God! Oh many have tried... But let's not let them have the last word! With VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS, I stopped reading The NY Times notifications after that abhorrent reporting about consul Robert Hur's statements... That was the last straw for me with the drama seeking Times.
I was frustrated by past NYT polls and the way they use them in their news stories for weeks. I canceled with them and was unaware of a new poll today. Really appreciated this analysis. I am also surprised and pleased that Democrats appear competitive in Senate races. Another good column!
Thanks as always for keeping us grounded, Simon. The missing “Voter” category in polling excludes perhaps the most important: “Actual Voters.” Reminder that in the Pennsylvania primary last month, over 2 million Commonwealth voters cast their ballots in a closed primary. Biden received about 946K Democratic votes (47% of total votes cast) while Trump received about 793K GOP votes (39% of total votes cast). Biden received a larger share of Democratic primary votes (88%) than Trump received in GOP primary votes (83%). Another reminder: Nikki Haley received 158K GOP primary votes despite having dropped out of the race the previous month. And one more data point about enthusiasm: Biden received more PA Democratic primary votes in 2024 (946K) than both Bill Clinton did in 1996 (666K) and Barack Obama did in 2012 (616K). A large number of other 2024 state primary elections showed similarly encouraging results. Still lots of work ahead but as you often say, I’d much rather be us than them.
This map shows announced and select awarded funding locations and projects. To see Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding, select ‘BIL’ from the funding source tab and hover over the dot to see details.⬇️
Good work. I've proudly NOT paid for them for a year, and stopped with the briefing this winter after the Special Counsel Hur bullshit ( the way they chose to describe it). I'm more sane now as a result. Not Mopium - Hopium!
That’s rather extreme. (Siri changed that for me to “sad crème”.) I suggest deleting Siri, and keep your NYT subscription open. Other things are of value with the NYT. Good recipes. Did you think about that?
Speaking of polls…The (The GOP-hugging) Florida Chamber of Commerce surveyed a whopping 609
to determine 61% favor abortion rights/Amendment 4. I would add( somewhat WAG-ly😜) 5% for source of pollster and another boost with draw to ballot box with recreational marijuana.
Feeling the Hopium in Florida but still much work ahead!
I'll take it.
It is not as easy as many seem to think. Biden really does have to juggle different voting blocks, and also has to try to do what's right. Today at my daughter's graduation there was some Palestinian stuff going on; the student speaker just had to bring it up ( though he also threw in Ukraine and Myanmar and kept it to students in those places not being able to study, or something like that ) and that got huge cheers. When a student unfurled a Palestinian flag the crowd went nuts. His family was right behind me. I bit my tongue, hard, because this day was not about me, it was about the students. My wife graciously offered to take their picture with their son when he came around later( he wasn't carrying the flag at that point ) but he did have a stole on as did many of the other students, including my daughter, who wore ones representing their heritage. This is Rutgers. There are a lot of Jewish students and staff. But at least there was no anti-semitism or remarks of that nature, and truthfully, by not making a bigger fuss over it, the moment passed and things moved on. There are many people opposed to Biden's helping Israel and many who support it , it is what it is. We hope for a settlement soon, the world needs one, as the forces of destabilization grow more powerful each day we don't have one.
The majority of Dem voters are not Jewish in Vermont or Maryland - or much of any place outside of a few districts. Jewish Dems are no doubt an important part of the coalition but not a majority.
Thanks for pointing me to @blockedfreq on Twitter. A little out-of-date, but I don't think things have changed much in the interim: https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1770181656768340394
Quick summary: as of 3/19, Biden led PA with in-state pollsters by 3, Trump led PA with national pollsters by 2.
As others have pointed out, I would argue Biden is underrated as a chess player, so to speak. When he's in a tough situation - just as others have written him off, ready to declare him dead in the water- he has frequently outmaneuvered. I put a lot of this on his experience ( imagine that ! ) as a politician whom actually, lemme think, knows how the various bodies of government operate ? Not to mention Jen O'Malley Dillon and all the other people he has surrounded himself with are very helpful too. I suspect we haven't seen his last move in this very complicated mess. Biden walks a tightrope much better than many give him credit for.
I agree about Biden doing the right thing. I'm a rabbi & a Zionist and I just wrote about this at https://theaccidentalrabbi.substack.com/p/bidens-decision-to-hold-off-on-sending if it's of interest.
My wife heard that and then looked for an official statement or confirmation on United Nation sites. The UN is certainly not putting that numerical reduction out there in an obvious and transparent manner. The honest thing would be a press release from the relevant UN agency.
Instead, she said, you can only surmise it by comparing graphics posted on two different days. Essentially, the UN has hidden it. If a journalist does a text search, they will quite simply come up empty.
Thank you for referencing again the major article about GOP weakness…
… and in follow up Simon, do you know yet if at Network NoVA you will be speaking on Friday or Saturday?
As always, what you offer us brings level-headed, data based clarity. Thank you...this is what it will take.
Thank you for your insights as I must confess that the NYT polling results were unnerving. I do understand that polls are snapshots and not necessarily predictive, and could not agree more that the headline was, at best, provocative. I take my anxiety and direct it towards letter writing for Vote Forward.
I do have a question: Mindful that presidents are elected by the Electoral College, are the national polls showing Biden’s strength among 18-28 year olds applicable to the swing states referenced by The NY Times?
Simon, congrats on your analysis being given extensive coverage in The Guardian’s Live Blog! Multiple Tweets are reproduced, with a link to the Hopium Chronicles. Great to see your correction of the NYT’s slanted narrative gaining traction!
Healthcare Providers for Biden Harris national zoom This Thursday May 16th 8 pm ET
https://events.democrats.org/event/626107/?referring_vol=6483596&share_context=dashboard-event-details&sharer_role=SharerRole.ORGANIZER
After seeing the NYT's "Breaking News" this morning, I started waiting for Simon's next post to help me not get "blown around" by yet another misleading blast from the NYT. While waiting, I reread and listened to Saturday's post, https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidence-of-biden-strength-wlikely. Doing this was a mental health measure, given that this is indeed the best writing you have yet done, Simon!
Also helpful: An email a few minutes ago that 200 postcards are coming my way from Postcards to Swing States (turnoutpac.org/postcards).
Do More, Worry Less! (And turn off "Breaking News" notifications from the New York Times.)
I'm one of those people who gets blown around by the latest scare headline. Unfortunately, the headline jumped out at me as I opened the app this morning to play Wordle. I very much needed the grounding that today's Hopium entry provides.
I agree with that statement - the NY Times seems to be not covering Trump's the bizarre things that he says at his rallies.
But her emails!
Yes, really. Goodness.
It's up to all of us to help make sure that malarkey doesn't stick. Maybe I'm wrong BUT I feel like whomever, or whatever (Republicans, Publications, Billionaires who destroy social media platforms whom every one including me thought was cool back in the day for helping mainstream electric cars ) tries to taint President Biden has had little luck in doing so - Thank God! Oh many have tried... But let's not let them have the last word! With VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS, I stopped reading The NY Times notifications after that abhorrent reporting about consul Robert Hur's statements... That was the last straw for me with the drama seeking Times.
I was frustrated by past NYT polls and the way they use them in their news stories for weeks. I canceled with them and was unaware of a new poll today. Really appreciated this analysis. I am also surprised and pleased that Democrats appear competitive in Senate races. Another good column!
Inspired partly by your note here, Cynthia, I just canceled my NYT subscription. Yay!
Yes, not Mopium but Hopium!
Thanks as always for keeping us grounded, Simon. The missing “Voter” category in polling excludes perhaps the most important: “Actual Voters.” Reminder that in the Pennsylvania primary last month, over 2 million Commonwealth voters cast their ballots in a closed primary. Biden received about 946K Democratic votes (47% of total votes cast) while Trump received about 793K GOP votes (39% of total votes cast). Biden received a larger share of Democratic primary votes (88%) than Trump received in GOP primary votes (83%). Another reminder: Nikki Haley received 158K GOP primary votes despite having dropped out of the race the previous month. And one more data point about enthusiasm: Biden received more PA Democratic primary votes in 2024 (946K) than both Bill Clinton did in 1996 (666K) and Barack Obama did in 2012 (616K). A large number of other 2024 state primary elections showed similarly encouraging results. Still lots of work ahead but as you often say, I’d much rather be us than them.
📣See what’s happening in your community!
This map shows announced and select awarded funding locations and projects. To see Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding, select ‘BIL’ from the funding source tab and hover over the dot to see details.⬇️
https://www.whitehouse.gov/build/maps-of-progress/
Thanks for the link Kathy. I'm sharing.
Except for Pa. and Wi. the gaps between Biden and Trump are so large as to make them seem outliers. Twelve points in Nevada?
It's a joke. Seriously. I talked to one of the top NV Dem political operatives and he thinks we will win there.
Viva la Reid Machine!
I cannot express adequately my extreme disappointment in the NYT.
Deleted the app and newsletter today.
Good work. I've proudly NOT paid for them for a year, and stopped with the briefing this winter after the Special Counsel Hur bullshit ( the way they chose to describe it). I'm more sane now as a result. Not Mopium - Hopium!
That’s rather extreme. (Siri changed that for me to “sad crème”.) I suggest deleting Siri, and keep your NYT subscription open. Other things are of value with the NYT. Good recipes. Did you think about that?
Speaking of polls…The (The GOP-hugging) Florida Chamber of Commerce surveyed a whopping 609
to determine 61% favor abortion rights/Amendment 4. I would add( somewhat WAG-ly😜) 5% for source of pollster and another boost with draw to ballot box with recreational marijuana.
Feeling the Hopium in Florida but still much work ahead!
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/673595-abortion-rights-amendment-has-61-support-florida-chamber-poll-says/