113 Comments

Thank you for referencing again the major article about GOP weakness…

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… and in follow up Simon, do you know yet if at Network NoVA you will be speaking on Friday or Saturday?

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As always, what you offer us brings level-headed, data based clarity. Thank you...this is what it will take.

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Thank you for your insights as I must confess that the NYT polling results were unnerving. I do understand that polls are snapshots and not necessarily predictive, and could not agree more that the headline was, at best, provocative. I take my anxiety and direct it towards letter writing for Vote Forward.

I do have a question: Mindful that presidents are elected by the Electoral College, are the national polls showing Biden’s strength among 18-28 year olds applicable to the swing states referenced by The NY Times?

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It was reported that the UN slashed the number of Women & Children killed in Gaza by 50% (still a horrifying tragedy) but it does illustrate that Hamas is actively making things much worse & driving narratives on SM. That being said, yes Biden is absolutely doing the right thing by withholding the weapons until the IDF prioritizes civilian lives.

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I agree about Biden doing the right thing. I'm a rabbi & a Zionist and I just wrote about this at https://theaccidentalrabbi.substack.com/p/bidens-decision-to-hold-off-on-sending if it's of interest.

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My wife heard that and then looked for an official statement or confirmation on United Nation sites. The UN is certainly not putting that numerical reduction out there in an obvious and transparent manner. The honest thing would be a press release from the relevant UN agency.

Instead, she said, you can only surmise it by comparing graphics posted on two different days. Essentially, the UN has hidden it. If a journalist does a text search, they will quite simply come up empty.

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Simon, congrats on your analysis being given extensive coverage in The Guardian’s Live Blog! Multiple Tweets are reproduced, with a link to the Hopium Chronicles. Great to see your correction of the NYT’s slanted narrative gaining traction!

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May 13·edited May 13

After seeing the NYT's "Breaking News" this morning, I started waiting for Simon's next post to help me not get "blown around" by yet another misleading blast from the NYT. While waiting, I reread and listened to Saturday's post, https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidence-of-biden-strength-wlikely. Doing this was a mental health measure, given that this is indeed the best writing you have yet done, Simon!

Also helpful: An email a few minutes ago that 200 postcards are coming my way from Postcards to Swing States (turnoutpac.org/postcards).

Do More, Worry Less! (And turn off "Breaking News" notifications from the New York Times.)

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May 13·edited May 13

I'm one of those people who gets blown around by the latest scare headline. Unfortunately, the headline jumped out at me as I opened the app this morning to play Wordle. I very much needed the grounding that today's Hopium entry provides.

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I agree with that statement - the NY Times seems to be not covering Trump's the bizarre things that he says at his rallies.

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But her emails!

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Yes, really. Goodness.

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May 14·edited May 14

It's up to all of us to help make sure that malarkey doesn't stick. Maybe I'm wrong BUT I feel like whomever, or whatever (Republicans, Publications, Billionaires who destroy social media platforms whom every one including me thought was cool back in the day for helping mainstream electric cars ) tries to taint President Biden has had little luck in doing so - Thank God! Oh many have tried... But let's not let them have the last word! With VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS, I stopped reading The NY Times notifications after that abhorrent reporting about consul Robert Hur's statements... That was the last straw for me with the drama seeking Times.

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I was frustrated by past NYT polls and the way they use them in their news stories for weeks. I canceled with them and was unaware of a new poll today. Really appreciated this analysis. I am also surprised and pleased that Democrats appear competitive in Senate races. Another good column!

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Inspired partly by your note here, Cynthia, I just canceled my NYT subscription. Yay!

Yes, not Mopium but Hopium!

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May 13·edited May 14

Thanks as always for keeping us grounded, Simon. The missing “Voter” category in polling excludes perhaps the most important: “Actual Voters.” Reminder that in the Pennsylvania primary last month, over 2 million Commonwealth voters cast their ballots in a closed primary. Biden received about 946K Democratic votes (47% of total votes cast) while Trump received about 793K GOP votes (39% of total votes cast). Biden received a larger share of Democratic primary votes (88%) than Trump received in GOP primary votes (83%). Another reminder: Nikki Haley received 158K GOP primary votes despite having dropped out of the race the previous month. And one more data point about enthusiasm: Biden received more PA Democratic primary votes in 2024 (946K) than both Bill Clinton did in 1996 (666K) and Barack Obama did in 2012 (616K). A large number of other 2024 state primary elections showed similarly encouraging results. Still lots of work ahead but as you often say, I’d much rather be us than them.

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📣See what’s happening in your community!

This map shows announced and select awarded funding locations and projects. To see Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding, select ‘BIL’ from the funding source tab and hover over the dot to see details.⬇️

https://www.whitehouse.gov/build/maps-of-progress/

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Thanks for the link Kathy. I'm sharing.

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Except for Pa. and Wi. the gaps between Biden and Trump are so large as to make them seem outliers. Twelve points in Nevada?

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It's a joke. Seriously. I talked to one of the top NV Dem political operatives and he thinks we will win there.

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Viva la Reid Machine!

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Thank you for your analysis Simon, I always appreciate your tireless work to report facts and put things in perspective. While I know some people get anxious about bogus headline getting NYT polls, I personally wrote them off a very long time ago as I'm totally convinced they're now trying to push narratives rather than report actual facts or news. It appears Sulzberger and Co. are determined to do their very best to damage Joe Biden, and the democrats, by pushing stories that they're weak when that's just factually false. Polls are not the end all be all, they should confirm facts on the ground and also reflect voting patterns. Dems have been winning elections, ballot initiatives, raising all sorts of money, and have the biggest grassroots movement in modern history. When voters are given a choice, they've been consistently voting against MAGA and that's a fact! I hope people can learn to shut off the lies and distortions of the main stream media and do more and worry less. We can win this thing if we focus and don't get distracted.

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I cannot express adequately my extreme disappointment in the NYT.

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Deleted the app and newsletter today.

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May 14·edited May 14

Good work. I've proudly NOT paid for them for a year, and stopped with the briefing this winter after the Special Counsel Hur bullshit ( the way they chose to describe it). I'm more sane now as a result. Not Mopium - Hopium!

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That’s rather extreme. (Siri changed that for me to “sad crème”.) I suggest deleting Siri, and keep your NYT subscription open. Other things are of value with the NYT. Good recipes. Did you think about that?

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Speaking of polls…The (The GOP-hugging) Florida Chamber of Commerce surveyed a whopping 609

to determine 61% favor abortion rights/Amendment 4. I would add( somewhat WAG-ly😜) 5% for source of pollster and another boost with draw to ballot box with recreational marijuana.

Feeling the Hopium in Florida but still much work ahead!

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/673595-abortion-rights-amendment-has-61-support-florida-chamber-poll-says/

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Question for the Hopium community: does anyone know of any postcarding or letter-writing opportunities specifically/explicitly in support of the Biden/Harris campaign?

I'm already doing Vote Forward letter-writing to swing state voters, but their voter messages are strictly non-partisan in nature, and can't/don't mention candidates. I'm also doing postcard writing for key Senate candidates (like Gallego). Those things are important, and I'll keep doing 'em. But I'd like to add in some swing state postcarding or letter-writing that is unabashedly "Vote Biden!" Has anyone yet seen such a campaign? If so, please note it here!

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https://www.fieldteam6.org

Focus changes. Explore website. Democrat specific voter registration and other issues. You can also call, text, donate. Also reach out to Jan Capper who is based in Marin County and tell her I sent you, get on her list. Incredible group that partners with all kinds of organizations. Jan Capper <jcapper7293@gmail.com>

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Thank you! I was just going to add Field Team 6. I have written pro-Biden postcards through Field Team 6 in the past 6 months. I don’t know if the current menu has any Biden-Harris copy. But I’d bet they will soon! Field Team 6 is excellent!

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Although, not explicitly for Biden/Harris, this group aims postcarding at down-ballot races and issues, believing that if people vote in those, that will mean that they are voting, the messages are tailored for each campaign but they are motivational toward the candidate that they are supporting (all Democrats).

https://postcardstovoters.org/

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BlueWave has several campaigns focused upon battleground states. Also I believe Hispanic postcards. Currently I am working on their second send to Az then their campaign will move on to NC for 2 runs. It’s a great group of professional dedicated volunteers who developed this program and have sent out over 5 million cards for previous elections and are now working towards sending that many out for 2024! I haven’t seen a Vote Biden but they MAY offer. Good luck

https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/

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