Notes on Trump's Insurrection Indictment

How many Republicans were part of the conspiracy to overturn the election?

I think the central question now that Trump has been indicted is how many other Republicans were part of this illegal conspiracy to overturn the election, and how many of them will get prosecuted in the coming years. The repeated use of “conspiracy” in the initial charges must have sent shock waves through Republican circles on Tuesday as it meant that all of a sudden dozens, perhaps hundreds, of leading Republicans here in Washington and across the US, now had potential legal exposure in this emerging case.

We know related charges have already been brought in Michigan, and more are likely to be brought in Georgia. Recall that in January 6th Committee testimony, the RNC Chair Romney McDaniel admitted, on camera, that she and the RNC played a role in this conspiracy to commit perhaps the most serious crime one can commit in a democracy - the overturning of an election. Here you go:

We know the DOJ has already successfully prosecuted over 1,000 people for their role in the effort to overturn the election. The next 100-200 charged could be prominent Republicans across the US and in battleground states. For the effort to overturn the election was backed by the Republican Party itself, and Republican leaders in Washington (Lindsay Graham, etc) and across the US. This is serious stuff.

The Watergate prosecutions went on for years after Nixon resigned. Could these prosecutions for trying to overturn an election last for years here in DC and across the country? Certainly feels like that’s more likely today.

All of this is why I’ve been saying that Democrats were having a good summer, and the Republican’s bad summer was about to get a whole lot worse. On Tuesday, it got a whole lot worse for the entire Republican Party. As it should.

The NYT Poll - a reminder that I wrote about this new poll on Tuesday. Yes this one has Biden Trump tied. But other high quality, large sample independent polls taken in July have Biden with an average of a 4 point lead. Can’t let one poll get you down. Stick to the averages, watch trends and my sense is we should feel good about where we are right now 15 months out from the election, and we all need to keep being loud and proud about Biden’s accomplishments.

July Biden-Trump (via 538)

• Monmouth 47-40

• Quinnipiac 49-44

• YouGov/Yahoo 47-43

• Morning Consult 44-41 (new this week, Biden gained a point)

• YouGov/Economist 44-40 (Biden has been gaining this weekly track)

• Ipsos/Reuters 37-35

So outside the NYTimes, Biden is leading by an average of 4 points in recent independent polls. A late June high-quality NBC News poll had Biden up 4, and a new AARP poll of battleground House districts also has Biden up 4.

Internet Problems - I’ve been without Internet since Monday, so sorry that my posting has been a little sparse this week. We had a big storm here on Saturday and somehow our home Internet has been impacted. Will admit am not happy with Verizon right now. We are getting very little information; the information we are getting has been repeatedly wrong; and our service went down 48 hours after the storm hit. Hopefully it gets restored tonight. Fingers crossed.

Keep working hard all - Simon