I looked back through Fivethirtyeight's pollster ratings ( including the archived version of the site before Nate Silver left) & they seem to be a B-rated pollster and they seem to be all over the place in terms of bias. Depending on what date you look at the pollster ratings index - they either are marked as having a slight GOP or slight Dem bias for what it's worth. I'm personally doing my damndest to ignore political polls if I can help it. I don't even use certain search engines (Yahoo, MSN) because I know they'll lob that shit in my face.
I'm also doing my best not to treat polls as tea leaves to be read. No two elections are alike. It's close, but Harris is nobody's fool, I cannot see her and Walz being caught flat footed by any of the inevitable fuckery that Trump and co will pull. Personally I hope she not only brushes him off but laughs at it him. It will drive the bastard crazy. I did look back at some history of this pollster as well, it seemed Biden was trailing far worse in this particular one (trying not to go down a rabbit hole of my own here lol). Just remember - and even I have to remind myself of this - polls have never been nor will they ever be crystal balls.
On the current version of the site ( which uses a different breakdown/grading system) they are 85th ( of of 277) when listed from best rated to worst rated - with a 2 out of 3 star rating.
Personally, I doubt it. But it serves a dual purpose. In case Florida is, it might put us over the top. If not, it simply hammers home the message they want to present on abortion.
Always felt Harris/Walz SHOULD campaign more in FL this election if they have the opportunity to put it more in play. Abortion is on their state ballot this election. The opportunity to make headway in FL is in view. Harris would be wise to go there and play offense on 45’ own turf. No time to capitulate to what may ‘seem’ like a lost cause. One might be surprised what court be accomplished. After all…the villages…a notoriously conservative area….had a golf cart rally for Harris not long after her initial start of her campaign. Again, where there’s opportunity…one should follow so hopefully, they will make some more appearances there. If nothing else…it most certainly cannot hurt!
And Florida is one of those states that if the vote wasn’t suppressed as seriously as it is, it would probably would be less red. I mean, the Democrats won the presidency in Florida in 1996, 2008, and 2012 and very nearly in 2000. What’s happened is that in 2013, in Shelby County vs Holder, the Supreme Court essentially eliminated the requirement that states with a history of voter discrimination (Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina e.g.) to get permission to change their voting rules or district maps from the federal government. As a result, states like Florida have been able to suppress the vote way more easily than before which has made it more difficult than in the past for Democrats to win there. I may have gotten some of the details wrong, but basically that’s a key reason it’s been harder to vote in Florida to remember.
Haha I I fully understand and appreciate that challenge. That said, never say never. This whole election cycle is unprecedented in and of itself. If my instincts were right five years ago to never underestimate Harris, I’m sticking with them in conjunction with the voters as well. Will FL flip? Who knows? Is there a chance is actually can? Yes and THAT even in this most toxic landscape is essential to what I see is sort of a universal shift happening. It’s not so much whether FL will flip or not. It’s that we’re finally starting to see a real turning of the societal and political landscape/dynamics across the country as well as, the world. Like I said the other day….I’m not the most religious person but I have some spirituality nonetheless haha and it definitely feels like the universe is playing it’s hand…and that hand has painted nails 😉. As a proud male ally who’s long desires Democratic Female Leadership in this country (and have always instinctively felt whomever that would be would turn out to be one of most positively instrumental leaders to date in modern history)….I’m here for it! That universal hand can paint my nails blue for all she cares 😉😆🙌
Oh definitely Blake! My point is more explaining for those who don’t know that Florida has been won by Democrats before presidency was. There is definitely a chance that Kamala Harris could pull it off and with abortion on the ballot and in a post Roe world, there is definitely an opportunity that is worth striving for. So I definitely agree with her move on her tour in Florida. It makes a lot of sense.
The other reason is that the more popular votes for Dems there are, the stronger we look, even in districts that don't win. It makes it harder for the Trumplicans to manipulate the electoral process, and they have to work harder to stretch a gambit that is already at breaking point. AND- the folks I know in Florida are wired up. If after all that's been done to them, if THEY think there'd a possibility to pull it off, let's at least back them up however we can. We do have to make sure we get as far over the 270 electoral mark as we can, but we also want more local Dems, we want more state Dems, and those votes will help validate our claim to victory.
I did read about that. It’s essentially a bus tour centered on reproductive freedom as Florida has an abortion rights amendment on the ballot this election cycle. It’s a good opportunity to support it passing (Kamala Harris is big into reproductive freedom) and also is a good opportunity to increase Democratic turnout this election which would tighten both the Senate and Presidential races going on. It’s making use of a valuable opportunity.
Something remarkable seems to be happening in Florida! Christopher Bouzy is one of many people who believe the state IS in play, as do I. Some very interesting stuff in Bouzy Twitter/X feed. (Nitter is a way of gaining access to it.)
Polls show Deb Mucarsel-Powell very close to unseating Rick Scott. My gut feeling is that she is going to win. If so, that hugely increases Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate.
yes, my comment kind of irrelevant. sorry, I'm going to delete it - had a longer comment but, I'll just delete. Bouzy is awesome as Lisa Iannucci says, I was kind of expanding on that
Agreed, Russell Owens! It spins my head trying to understand how the election could be close with such a stark contrast of moral / social good vs retribution-carnage machine. This conversation between Politics Girl, Leigh McGowen, and “White Picket Fence” podcaster, Julie Kohler, explains a lot to me the crazy retro position trump/vance are trying to force upon America. The phrase “We Won’t Go Back” cannot be shouted loud enough, I feel. https://youtu.be/IoyVYuT8qKo?feature=shared
Let's be patient. Labor Day has passed and voters will start to pay attention the closer we get to voting. I never believed from Day One it was actually this close.
But, I could be wrong, of course. If so, I have not spent this year wringing my hands and having heart palpitations. But I have sent through me or my party hundreds of postcards. No palpitations.
I agree that's why I wasn't sure if it was real or not. So many times, I think the headline is satire about Trump to only to come to know it actually was said or happened.
It does sound a lot like Alice in Wonderland! But then, Lewis Carroll wrote it not so much as a children's tale than as political satire. It still works.
"Tom Bonier will be joining us live this Wednesday night at 7pm. Tom will be discussing two new tools his team at TargetSmart are releasing in the coming days - one that tracks changes in voter registration across the country..."
Simon, I am really looking forward to this!
However, I sincerely hope Tom Bonier will take the opportunity to share what he knows about actual numbers. He has many posts about the impressive percentage changes for various demographics. While interesting and newsworthy, those percentage increases have far less meaning without the *hard numbers*, state-by-state, of newly registered voters.
You seem to be seeking a degree of certainty which simply doesn't exist in this business. We can and should win. We are favored for all the reasons I write and discuss here everyday. We have a stronger team. Better arguments. Better candidates. We have more money, a far stronger organization and more intensity. That's it. Trump is diminished, degraded, and making mistakes everyday. Vance is a huge drag on the ticket.
That's where the race is and now we just have to put our heads down, do the work and go win this thing, together.
I empathize with your cautious realism but I also disagree in that this will be very close. I have a funny feeling Harris will surprise the electorate when all set and done. It very well may be quite close and the way to win period is to continue acting like we’re ten points behind. That necessary humility kept within the ethic we display moving forward in this race will give us the edge the whole way through all the way to Inauguration Day.
That all said, I don’t underestimate the female voting bloc in this country (especially in this moment…the moment of women), the young voting bloc (as we’ve seen the dramatic shift in enthusiasm on the ground amongst them), the millennial voting bloc (as I personally feel that segment of late 20s to late 30s are the least talked about but potentially the most active in the voting booth particularly, this election), the independent/moderate voting bloc (due to the extraordinary ‘sway able’ work by groups like Lincoln Project and Seneca Project), and last but most certainly not least and as I’ve pointed to yesterday when I posted here…the veteran/military voting bloc.
While the Arlington incident in and of itself may not amount to anything significant on the legal front…I boldly suspect it will come back to haunt 45 come November and in a way, to our surprise too once exit polling from Election Day comes into view. When the army itself puts out such a scathing statement, there are by definition, untapped voters within that bracket who seem to actually be doing that work for us by nature of 45’ own self destructive behavior and I personally predict they will come out to vote for Harris in direct referendum to the disrespect displayed by 45 towards our armed service.
Now, could I be wrong about all of this? Of course! However, I will bullishly rely on my instincts while keeping my ‘cautious’ optimism in check just the same. I felt five years ago Harris could be the first Female President and look where we are now. I’m not giving up on my gut instincts just yet.
I believe we have the potential to break past 300 electoral votes this election and possibly even near 320 if Harris manages to win all seven battleground states (NOT out of the realm of possibility). The fact FL is even in play to any degree shows there’s something unexpected brewing here. Certainly, in my view. Yes, our expectations should be kept in check but at the same time, our work ethic and lack of apathy should just as well, enable us to shoot for the stars here.
We do that…sincerely, who knows how far we can take Harris over the finish line?!? Why not try managing to surprise ourselves. The overall goal is to evoke a win that while will inevitably be challenged relentlessly…is also indisputable just the same to the point not even Scotus would foolishly overturn anything. We can do this!
Do you have any explanation as to why Trump and MAGA continue to attract the levels of support they do? There is no logical reason this race should even be close at this point, in my opinion. And yet it is, according to the polling averages. Why does quasi-fascism enjoy support in excess of 40% in the U.S.? I just don't understand it.
I'm grateful for this community. It helps me keep my focus on doing what I can do to help us win, and limiting my consumption of analysis to a few trusted sources and a constant reminder to myself that my efforts are tied to everyone else's in this movement and that it's a beautiful, worthy, and fulfilling cause.
Another factor to consider: dem senate candidates are running way ahead of the presidential polls for Harris. Are all these voters going to vote for a democratic senator candidate and then the around and vote for tfg? I doubt it.
If anything some have speculated - at least when Biden was still in the race - that there could be a "reverse coattail effect" in which these down ballot democratic candidates help carry Harris over the finish line. Not sure I entirely buy it - and again this was being more widely discussed pre switch - but anything is possible
We have talked before. And beyond what Simon said (pun not intended), I really suggest getting any friends in the States to consider donating to Robert Reich's Inequality Civic Media. He's really all in on Harris (to a degree that I did not even see in the 2020 elections), and his data suggests that his messaging is very effective.
Think of ICM and Hopium as the one-two punch. I might be posting about it soon, and, regardless, I am going to try to spread the word on both platforms soon (via social media and what-not).
Wow. That's an unusually good tv interview. Numbers, not opinions. I've been thinking that new voters might be our secret treasure. But I try not to think too much about it because I'm an under-promise, over-perform type person.
Also, pay attention to how the senior citizen vote appears in the polls. That looked good for Biden, and it seems to have largely held with Harris. And those voters are more likely to decide the election than anyone else.
P.S. Much has been made of Trump's attempts to court young male voters (the "frat bro" demographic, I have heard it called). However, as we all know, the gender gap is real, and Harris per the polls is doing better with young women than Trump is doing with young men. On top of that, I have my doubts that young men would turn out in the numbers that young women do. For what may or may not be obvious reasons.
It ought to be illegal to do this within three months of an election. We must have a way to protect all this victims who want to vote for Kamala. Especially if re-registering is not possible. Do they even notify each individual that they disenfranchise? Elections can not be turned into gotcha games against ordinary citizens. (I may be wrong, but it does not seem right.)
When faced with the choice between democracy and power, the Republican priority is clear. I totally agree with you, but in their world view, "ought" and "should" and "voting rights" clearly carry zero weight.
ArcticStones, Tom's social media posts have to be written so as not to confuse the average reader so percentages are the best choice IMO if you can only pick one metric. I would expect he will do a deeper dive for the Hopium crowd with all of us data nerds ;-)
Here is an interview with him dicussing the voter Registration trends that I think does a good job:
I have a Labor Day comment. People are outside today enjoying Labor Day. Just left a park which is overflowing with people enjoying the day - which they have - Off. The motorcyclists and bicyclists are on the roads enjoying what seems like the first break in humidity. A good cause to thank the labor unions. Happy Labor Day everyone!
Time to shout this stuff to the rooftops. The fast-paced news cycle is Trump's worst enemy. Because we've got plenty of reserves of bad news stories on him. Like this one, which also needs to get out soon: https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/disabled-people-should-just-die.
Heh heh. But it's very convenient that his campaign let him express his true feelings on public service. In fact, I just sent out the article to a friend of mine who works at the TSA. He was one of those voters the Trump camp tried to get with things like the Adin Ross interview.
So I am especially happy this Labor Day. Let's put it that way :)
Today I heard a professor from Georgetown talking about Reagan's firing the air traffic controllers in 1981, and how he also denigrated public workers, but looked the other way when the private sector started doing the same stuff and getting away with it. I think it was a Dodge plant in OH that first forced a strike then fired everyone at that time, and it was all out assault on labor after that.
It is gorgeous in the NYC region today, unfortunately a bit too windy to take the boat out and so we are enjoying governor Murphy's free NJ Transit week going to Philly and NYC. Wife has been doing the free opera at Lincoln Center and son is at the Central Park zoo. Trains are packed. Am headed to Chicago for a wedding and have decided to drive up to Milwaukee because I've never been, and hear the lakefront is a sight to see this time of year and the fishing is tremendous....35 years ago my wife came here from Colombia and baby sat for two young boys while their Irish immigrant mother tried to make ends meet. That young man still remembers her and has invited us to his wedding. He is a chef in LA.
Wonderful that the boy your wife took care of still keeps in touch. Even more wonderful that the now young man is getting married and invited you to his wedding!
From a global perspective, I think the AfD results in Eastern Germany may be a little disappointing (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/02/europe/afd-germany-election-thuringia-saxony-intl/index.html). At this point, I am not sure whether AfD underperformed the polls or not. However, all that said, 1) the voting was in regions which were about 7% of Germany's total population 2) the most important elections (the federal elections) are next year and 3) it is very possible that this gets "the silent majority" of Germans scared enough to go out to the polls next year to repudiate the AfD (like what happened in France).
At any rate, on the whole, we are doing pretty well. Whether in France (which was a surprise to me), the UK, and India. So I am hopeful from a global perspective as we enter our own election cycle.
Great news for the Harris/Walz ticket, but let's not forget that they won't be as likely to succeed in their promises unless we also win the Senate (it's going to be close) and House (looks promising). We need to encourage everyone we know to vote Blue up AND down the ballot!!
I've been writing postcards to unregistered left-leaning individuals thru Field Team 6. Our team, led by Chris and Herb O, has sent over 17,000 postcards so far and I have, personally sent over 600!
Hi Ellen. I've ordered my first batch of postcards through Markers for Democracy/ProShop. How did you get your hands on a mailing list? That's the piece of this that I'm fuzzy on. The cards will be here next week and I want to be ready to go.
I am postcarding thru Field Team 6. Just Google them to find their website. Lots of other postcarding opportunities available too, including thru Simon Rosenberg's site. Doing something is what is important right now, including talking with our youth who often don't vote.
Hi Gordon, see my post about Activate Amercia if you want to write GOTV (get out the vote) postcards for senate races.
For House races, I suggest signing up for Thurday's "Winning the House" Zoom. If you sign up for the Postcard breakout room, they will automatically send you 10 names and addresses for this week's candidate, George Whitesides.
I think the instructions will include how to create an account on the "Winning the House" postcard platform (winningthehouse.com) and then you can get additional addresses for the 4 candidates we have already covered: Janelle Bynum, Josh Riley, Kirsten Engel and Will Rollins. After Thursday's zoom, you'll be able to get extra names & addresses for this week's candidiate too.
I have also been writing postcards to register voters in NC through FT6. Last week, many of the names and addresses on their postcard platform mysteriously diasappeared, but I am happy to see they are back... and I grabbed some more! So if you want to register more voters via postcards, you can do it NOW.
For anyone who has FT6 postcards that they downloaded before a week or so ago, check back to see if your script has been updated. I've been doing the Project 2025 themed postcards which has basically the same script for several states.
They have added a specific mail by date and changed "Register at Voterizer.org" to "Register by xx/xx at Voterizer.org" with xx/xx being the final day to register in that particular state.
For those who want to write regular GOTV postcards besides the ones for Simon's "Winning the House" campaigns:
Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) has several campaigns to encourage vote by mail or voting early - many in states with important Senate races including AZ, MI, OH, PA, and WI.
Blue Wave Postcard Movement is getting ready to mail out the second VBM campaign for NE. Blue Wave requires volunteers to buy their postcards (avalable in bundles of 100 or boxes of 2000) and they come with pre-printed labels and a very short script since most of the message is preprinted on the postcards. Their programs fill up quickly, so if you want to write to NE, you should jump on it quickly.
Yes. I have been telling my friends to donate to flippable House seats. They seem to want to donate only to Harris/Walz. I don't try to talk them out of it bc better that they donate where they want to donate than not donate at all. I also mention the Senate.
Simon, I plan to vote on Day1, as you suggest. For me, that means October 16th. I also plan to vote a straight Democratic ticket. I'm wondering if in my ruby red state (Tennessee) it makes a difference to vote on Day1?
Based on what I've learned here and elsewhere about GOTV, I don't think it matters WHERE you vote. If you vote early and campaigns are notified, then they will focus their GOTV efforts elsewhere, which will be more focused and effective.
Michael mentioned it in passing, and Simon said it too before, but Trump is really between a rock and a hard place when it comes to abortion. His political gymnastics only prove he knows how bad of a situation he really is in. If you message this just right, you can choke off Trump on both the abortion swing vote and on the evangelical turnout operation.
[Ot, but inspired by the noting of FDR's commitment to all people's dignity]:
If one has a little down time when not phone-banking, postcarding, or otherwise engaged in the noble cause, the movie Dave (1993) describes the importance and meaning of work, of just having a job.
It's my favorite political movie, though not as apparently sophisticated as The American President or Reds (nor as serious as Lincoln and yes - a fairy tale), it captures our United States' spirit uniquely, humorously, and most affectionately.
I LOVE that film! No, it's not highbrow Aaron Sorkin-esq., it's a comedy with a solid message and fantastic actors. I think I'll watch it on this lovely Labor Day. It's "only" going to be 104 degrees, so it's a good day to stay in, stay cool and watch a funny, feel-good movie. Thanks!
Simon, On this Labor Day I appreciate the FDR quote about the Civilian Conservation Corps ... My father was an alum of the CCC. It helped millions of families who were struggling financially during the Depression, and it also completed thousands of useful conservation projects.
Thanks, DC native here but I have moved away from the area for budget reasons. Half the monuments you have photos of did not even exist when I was growing up. I love the FDR memorial & am a total fangirl of both him & Eleanor -- I talk about both of them all the time.. Folks should visit the FDR Presidential Museum and Library in Hyde Park if you can - it's amazing. You can also visit the two smaller residences "up the hill" - one where FDR kibitzed with Churchill and the other where Eleanor spent so much of her time.
But it's still the Lincoln Memorial that gets me. I used to work in Arlington & came home over Memorial Bridge. Never fails to be an inspiring sight, especially when lit up at night. I also loved looking across the river at night to Arlington and seeing the Eternal Flame glowing amongst the trees.
Grateful today and every day for this wonderful group, and for all the hard work everyone is doing!
I looked back through Fivethirtyeight's pollster ratings ( including the archived version of the site before Nate Silver left) & they seem to be a B-rated pollster and they seem to be all over the place in terms of bias. Depending on what date you look at the pollster ratings index - they either are marked as having a slight GOP or slight Dem bias for what it's worth. I'm personally doing my damndest to ignore political polls if I can help it. I don't even use certain search engines (Yahoo, MSN) because I know they'll lob that shit in my face.
I'm also doing my best not to treat polls as tea leaves to be read. No two elections are alike. It's close, but Harris is nobody's fool, I cannot see her and Walz being caught flat footed by any of the inevitable fuckery that Trump and co will pull. Personally I hope she not only brushes him off but laughs at it him. It will drive the bastard crazy. I did look back at some history of this pollster as well, it seemed Biden was trailing far worse in this particular one (trying not to go down a rabbit hole of my own here lol). Just remember - and even I have to remind myself of this - polls have never been nor will they ever be crystal balls.
On the current version of the site ( which uses a different breakdown/grading system) they are 85th ( of of 277) when listed from best rated to worst rated - with a 2 out of 3 star rating.
Blue Wave Postcard project is launching their 2nd Vote by Mail (VBM) campaign to NE voters. Check it out here:
https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/pages/write-postcards
Personally, I doubt it. But it serves a dual purpose. In case Florida is, it might put us over the top. If not, it simply hammers home the message they want to present on abortion.
Always felt Harris/Walz SHOULD campaign more in FL this election if they have the opportunity to put it more in play. Abortion is on their state ballot this election. The opportunity to make headway in FL is in view. Harris would be wise to go there and play offense on 45’ own turf. No time to capitulate to what may ‘seem’ like a lost cause. One might be surprised what court be accomplished. After all…the villages…a notoriously conservative area….had a golf cart rally for Harris not long after her initial start of her campaign. Again, where there’s opportunity…one should follow so hopefully, they will make some more appearances there. If nothing else…it most certainly cannot hurt!
And Florida is one of those states that if the vote wasn’t suppressed as seriously as it is, it would probably would be less red. I mean, the Democrats won the presidency in Florida in 1996, 2008, and 2012 and very nearly in 2000. What’s happened is that in 2013, in Shelby County vs Holder, the Supreme Court essentially eliminated the requirement that states with a history of voter discrimination (Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina e.g.) to get permission to change their voting rules or district maps from the federal government. As a result, states like Florida have been able to suppress the vote way more easily than before which has made it more difficult than in the past for Democrats to win there. I may have gotten some of the details wrong, but basically that’s a key reason it’s been harder to vote in Florida to remember.
Haha I I fully understand and appreciate that challenge. That said, never say never. This whole election cycle is unprecedented in and of itself. If my instincts were right five years ago to never underestimate Harris, I’m sticking with them in conjunction with the voters as well. Will FL flip? Who knows? Is there a chance is actually can? Yes and THAT even in this most toxic landscape is essential to what I see is sort of a universal shift happening. It’s not so much whether FL will flip or not. It’s that we’re finally starting to see a real turning of the societal and political landscape/dynamics across the country as well as, the world. Like I said the other day….I’m not the most religious person but I have some spirituality nonetheless haha and it definitely feels like the universe is playing it’s hand…and that hand has painted nails 😉. As a proud male ally who’s long desires Democratic Female Leadership in this country (and have always instinctively felt whomever that would be would turn out to be one of most positively instrumental leaders to date in modern history)….I’m here for it! That universal hand can paint my nails blue for all she cares 😉😆🙌
Oh definitely Blake! My point is more explaining for those who don’t know that Florida has been won by Democrats before presidency was. There is definitely a chance that Kamala Harris could pull it off and with abortion on the ballot and in a post Roe world, there is definitely an opportunity that is worth striving for. So I definitely agree with her move on her tour in Florida. It makes a lot of sense.
Right on! At this point, all we can do is keep up the work and hope for the best.
The other reason is that the more popular votes for Dems there are, the stronger we look, even in districts that don't win. It makes it harder for the Trumplicans to manipulate the electoral process, and they have to work harder to stretch a gambit that is already at breaking point. AND- the folks I know in Florida are wired up. If after all that's been done to them, if THEY think there'd a possibility to pull it off, let's at least back them up however we can. We do have to make sure we get as far over the 270 electoral mark as we can, but we also want more local Dems, we want more state Dems, and those votes will help validate our claim to victory.
I did read about that. It’s essentially a bus tour centered on reproductive freedom as Florida has an abortion rights amendment on the ballot this election cycle. It’s a good opportunity to support it passing (Kamala Harris is big into reproductive freedom) and also is a good opportunity to increase Democratic turnout this election which would tighten both the Senate and Presidential races going on. It’s making use of a valuable opportunity.
Something remarkable seems to be happening in Florida! Christopher Bouzy is one of many people who believe the state IS in play, as do I. Some very interesting stuff in Bouzy Twitter/X feed. (Nitter is a way of gaining access to it.)
https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy
Polls show Deb Mucarsel-Powell very close to unseating Rick Scott. My gut feeling is that she is going to win. If so, that hugely increases Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate.
Mr. Bouzy is awesome - I just love his calm demeanor and total reliance on facts and data. As a librarian, that's totally my wheelhouse!
sorry, deleted my comment, kind of irrelevent - I was expanding on what, as Lisa Iannucci wrote, Christopher Bouzy's awesomeness, is considerable.
Why do you say so? I didn't get that sense at all.
yes, my comment kind of irrelevant. sorry, I'm going to delete it - had a longer comment but, I'll just delete. Bouzy is awesome as Lisa Iannucci says, I was kind of expanding on that
He did a whole thing protecting Meghan and Harry from online attacks, thought Russell might have heard about it
I wrote a couple hundred postcards to FL with Postcards to Swing States - I feel good about FL too!
“Fighting Fir Reproductive Freedom”. Palm Beach today and then Jax.
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/politics/national-politics/kamala-harris-campaign-bus-will-tour-florida-this-week-heres-what-cities-it-will-travel-to/77-1dbe6154-e2c5-4acc-8352-4b876e377136
Agreed, Russell Owens! It spins my head trying to understand how the election could be close with such a stark contrast of moral / social good vs retribution-carnage machine. This conversation between Politics Girl, Leigh McGowen, and “White Picket Fence” podcaster, Julie Kohler, explains a lot to me the crazy retro position trump/vance are trying to force upon America. The phrase “We Won’t Go Back” cannot be shouted loud enough, I feel. https://youtu.be/IoyVYuT8qKo?feature=shared
Speaking of Politics Girl, her recent podcast with Heather Cox Richardson is well worth a listen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CldvIwAFmxk&t=9s
Let's be patient. Labor Day has passed and voters will start to pay attention the closer we get to voting. I never believed from Day One it was actually this close.
But, I could be wrong, of course. If so, I have not spent this year wringing my hands and having heart palpitations. But I have sent through me or my party hundreds of postcards. No palpitations.
“Bow deeply so the Big Boss doesn’t see you laughing.”
– Overheard between two key Trump Campaign workers
Is this true? It's hard to tell these days.
Faux quote, but it would astonish me if this or something similar hasn’t been uttered by exasperated people in Trump’s inner circle.
I agree that's why I wasn't sure if it was real or not. So many times, I think the headline is satire about Trump to only to come to know it actually was said or happened.
It sounds like it could have come straight from the pen of Lewis Carroll! I'm sure Alice would have been laughing.
It does sound a lot like Alice in Wonderland! But then, Lewis Carroll wrote it not so much as a children's tale than as political satire. It still works.
"Tom Bonier will be joining us live this Wednesday night at 7pm. Tom will be discussing two new tools his team at TargetSmart are releasing in the coming days - one that tracks changes in voter registration across the country..."
Simon, I am really looking forward to this!
However, I sincerely hope Tom Bonier will take the opportunity to share what he knows about actual numbers. He has many posts about the impressive percentage changes for various demographics. While interesting and newsworthy, those percentage increases have far less meaning without the *hard numbers*, state-by-state, of newly registered voters.
Russell, isn't that what we talk about every day here? I am confused by this comment.
You seem to be seeking a degree of certainty which simply doesn't exist in this business. We can and should win. We are favored for all the reasons I write and discuss here everyday. We have a stronger team. Better arguments. Better candidates. We have more money, a far stronger organization and more intensity. That's it. Trump is diminished, degraded, and making mistakes everyday. Vance is a huge drag on the ticket.
That's where the race is and now we just have to put our heads down, do the work and go win this thing, together.
I empathize with your cautious realism but I also disagree in that this will be very close. I have a funny feeling Harris will surprise the electorate when all set and done. It very well may be quite close and the way to win period is to continue acting like we’re ten points behind. That necessary humility kept within the ethic we display moving forward in this race will give us the edge the whole way through all the way to Inauguration Day.
That all said, I don’t underestimate the female voting bloc in this country (especially in this moment…the moment of women), the young voting bloc (as we’ve seen the dramatic shift in enthusiasm on the ground amongst them), the millennial voting bloc (as I personally feel that segment of late 20s to late 30s are the least talked about but potentially the most active in the voting booth particularly, this election), the independent/moderate voting bloc (due to the extraordinary ‘sway able’ work by groups like Lincoln Project and Seneca Project), and last but most certainly not least and as I’ve pointed to yesterday when I posted here…the veteran/military voting bloc.
While the Arlington incident in and of itself may not amount to anything significant on the legal front…I boldly suspect it will come back to haunt 45 come November and in a way, to our surprise too once exit polling from Election Day comes into view. When the army itself puts out such a scathing statement, there are by definition, untapped voters within that bracket who seem to actually be doing that work for us by nature of 45’ own self destructive behavior and I personally predict they will come out to vote for Harris in direct referendum to the disrespect displayed by 45 towards our armed service.
Now, could I be wrong about all of this? Of course! However, I will bullishly rely on my instincts while keeping my ‘cautious’ optimism in check just the same. I felt five years ago Harris could be the first Female President and look where we are now. I’m not giving up on my gut instincts just yet.
I believe we have the potential to break past 300 electoral votes this election and possibly even near 320 if Harris manages to win all seven battleground states (NOT out of the realm of possibility). The fact FL is even in play to any degree shows there’s something unexpected brewing here. Certainly, in my view. Yes, our expectations should be kept in check but at the same time, our work ethic and lack of apathy should just as well, enable us to shoot for the stars here.
We do that…sincerely, who knows how far we can take Harris over the finish line?!? Why not try managing to surprise ourselves. The overall goal is to evoke a win that while will inevitably be challenged relentlessly…is also indisputable just the same to the point not even Scotus would foolishly overturn anything. We can do this!
Do you have any explanation as to why Trump and MAGA continue to attract the levels of support they do? There is no logical reason this race should even be close at this point, in my opinion. And yet it is, according to the polling averages. Why does quasi-fascism enjoy support in excess of 40% in the U.S.? I just don't understand it.
I'm grateful for this community. It helps me keep my focus on doing what I can do to help us win, and limiting my consumption of analysis to a few trusted sources and a constant reminder to myself that my efforts are tied to everyone else's in this movement and that it's a beautiful, worthy, and fulfilling cause.
Another factor to consider: dem senate candidates are running way ahead of the presidential polls for Harris. Are all these voters going to vote for a democratic senator candidate and then the around and vote for tfg? I doubt it.
If anything some have speculated - at least when Biden was still in the race - that there could be a "reverse coattail effect" in which these down ballot democratic candidates help carry Harris over the finish line. Not sure I entirely buy it - and again this was being more widely discussed pre switch - but anything is possible
Hello Russell,
We have talked before. And beyond what Simon said (pun not intended), I really suggest getting any friends in the States to consider donating to Robert Reich's Inequality Civic Media. He's really all in on Harris (to a degree that I did not even see in the 2020 elections), and his data suggests that his messaging is very effective.
Think of ICM and Hopium as the one-two punch. I might be posting about it soon, and, regardless, I am going to try to spread the word on both platforms soon (via social media and what-not).
Two things that are really important, and which I have so far searched for in vain:
– New registrations, state-by-state overview
– Number of voters purged from voter rolls (beyond standard "clean-up"), per state
This recent CBS News interview with Tom Bonier is well worth re-watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrMar7jbHjs
Wow. That's an unusually good tv interview. Numbers, not opinions. I've been thinking that new voters might be our secret treasure. But I try not to think too much about it because I'm an under-promise, over-perform type person.
Also, pay attention to how the senior citizen vote appears in the polls. That looked good for Biden, and it seems to have largely held with Harris. And those voters are more likely to decide the election than anyone else.
P.S. Much has been made of Trump's attempts to court young male voters (the "frat bro" demographic, I have heard it called). However, as we all know, the gender gap is real, and Harris per the polls is doing better with young women than Trump is doing with young men. On top of that, I have my doubts that young men would turn out in the numbers that young women do. For what may or may not be obvious reasons.
Yes, very impt esp considering recent purges in TX and GA.
Exactly.
It ought to be illegal to do this within three months of an election. We must have a way to protect all this victims who want to vote for Kamala. Especially if re-registering is not possible. Do they even notify each individual that they disenfranchise? Elections can not be turned into gotcha games against ordinary citizens. (I may be wrong, but it does not seem right.)
When faced with the choice between democracy and power, the Republican priority is clear. I totally agree with you, but in their world view, "ought" and "should" and "voting rights" clearly carry zero weight.
ArcticStones, Tom's social media posts have to be written so as not to confuse the average reader so percentages are the best choice IMO if you can only pick one metric. I would expect he will do a deeper dive for the Hopium crowd with all of us data nerds ;-)
Here is an interview with him dicussing the voter Registration trends that I think does a good job:
https://www.mediaite.com/news/data-guru-marvels-at-stunning-increasing-in-voter-registration-since-kamala-harris-took-over-you-just-dont-see-that/
I have a Labor Day comment. People are outside today enjoying Labor Day. Just left a park which is overflowing with people enjoying the day - which they have - Off. The motorcyclists and bicyclists are on the roads enjoying what seems like the first break in humidity. A good cause to thank the labor unions. Happy Labor Day everyone!
P.S. In almost a stunning irony, Trump's campaign took the time to denigrate our public service workers (see https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-campaign-public-isn-t-172112256.html).
Time to shout this stuff to the rooftops. The fast-paced news cycle is Trump's worst enemy. Because we've got plenty of reserves of bad news stories on him. Like this one, which also needs to get out soon: https://davidsalzillo.substack.com/p/disabled-people-should-just-die.
David we know he has never punched a time card in any sector
Heh heh. But it's very convenient that his campaign let him express his true feelings on public service. In fact, I just sent out the article to a friend of mine who works at the TSA. He was one of those voters the Trump camp tried to get with things like the Adin Ross interview.
So I am especially happy this Labor Day. Let's put it that way :)
Today I heard a professor from Georgetown talking about Reagan's firing the air traffic controllers in 1981, and how he also denigrated public workers, but looked the other way when the private sector started doing the same stuff and getting away with it. I think it was a Dodge plant in OH that first forced a strike then fired everyone at that time, and it was all out assault on labor after that.
Chaos is all he offers!
It is gorgeous in the NYC region today, unfortunately a bit too windy to take the boat out and so we are enjoying governor Murphy's free NJ Transit week going to Philly and NYC. Wife has been doing the free opera at Lincoln Center and son is at the Central Park zoo. Trains are packed. Am headed to Chicago for a wedding and have decided to drive up to Milwaukee because I've never been, and hear the lakefront is a sight to see this time of year and the fishing is tremendous....35 years ago my wife came here from Colombia and baby sat for two young boys while their Irish immigrant mother tried to make ends meet. That young man still remembers her and has invited us to his wedding. He is a chef in LA.
Wonderful that the boy your wife took care of still keeps in touch. Even more wonderful that the now young man is getting married and invited you to his wedding!
Hello Simon,
First of all, 100% right on Biden and Harris.
From a global perspective, I think the AfD results in Eastern Germany may be a little disappointing (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/02/europe/afd-germany-election-thuringia-saxony-intl/index.html). At this point, I am not sure whether AfD underperformed the polls or not. However, all that said, 1) the voting was in regions which were about 7% of Germany's total population 2) the most important elections (the federal elections) are next year and 3) it is very possible that this gets "the silent majority" of Germans scared enough to go out to the polls next year to repudiate the AfD (like what happened in France).
At any rate, on the whole, we are doing pretty well. Whether in France (which was a surprise to me), the UK, and India. So I am hopeful from a global perspective as we enter our own election cycle.
Regardless,
#AllEyesOnAmerica.
Loved your recent video extolling JOY!! while we finish our work here. Thanks Simon. You were spot on.
Great news for the Harris/Walz ticket, but let's not forget that they won't be as likely to succeed in their promises unless we also win the Senate (it's going to be close) and House (looks promising). We need to encourage everyone we know to vote Blue up AND down the ballot!!
doing so in GA with our postcards to DEMS and likely DEMS!
I've been writing postcards to unregistered left-leaning individuals thru Field Team 6. Our team, led by Chris and Herb O, has sent over 17,000 postcards so far and I have, personally sent over 600!
Wow! Thank you for your service!
Hi Ellen. I've ordered my first batch of postcards through Markers for Democracy/ProShop. How did you get your hands on a mailing list? That's the piece of this that I'm fuzzy on. The cards will be here next week and I want to be ready to go.
I am postcarding thru Field Team 6. Just Google them to find their website. Lots of other postcarding opportunities available too, including thru Simon Rosenberg's site. Doing something is what is important right now, including talking with our youth who often don't vote.
Hi Gordon, see my post about Activate Amercia if you want to write GOTV (get out the vote) postcards for senate races.
For House races, I suggest signing up for Thurday's "Winning the House" Zoom. If you sign up for the Postcard breakout room, they will automatically send you 10 names and addresses for this week's candidate, George Whitesides.
I think the instructions will include how to create an account on the "Winning the House" postcard platform (winningthehouse.com) and then you can get additional addresses for the 4 candidates we have already covered: Janelle Bynum, Josh Riley, Kirsten Engel and Will Rollins. After Thursday's zoom, you'll be able to get extra names & addresses for this week's candidiate too.
I have also been writing postcards to register voters in NC through FT6. Last week, many of the names and addresses on their postcard platform mysteriously diasappeared, but I am happy to see they are back... and I grabbed some more! So if you want to register more voters via postcards, you can do it NOW.
For anyone who has FT6 postcards that they downloaded before a week or so ago, check back to see if your script has been updated. I've been doing the Project 2025 themed postcards which has basically the same script for several states.
They have added a specific mail by date and changed "Register at Voterizer.org" to "Register by xx/xx at Voterizer.org" with xx/xx being the final day to register in that particular state.
For those who want to write regular GOTV postcards besides the ones for Simon's "Winning the House" campaigns:
Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) has several campaigns to encourage vote by mail or voting early - many in states with important Senate races including AZ, MI, OH, PA, and WI.
Blue Wave Postcard Movement is getting ready to mail out the second VBM campaign for NE. Blue Wave requires volunteers to buy their postcards (avalable in bundles of 100 or boxes of 2000) and they come with pre-printed labels and a very short script since most of the message is preprinted on the postcards. Their programs fill up quickly, so if you want to write to NE, you should jump on it quickly.
Yes. I have been telling my friends to donate to flippable House seats. They seem to want to donate only to Harris/Walz. I don't try to talk them out of it bc better that they donate where they want to donate than not donate at all. I also mention the Senate.
Simon, I plan to vote on Day1, as you suggest. For me, that means October 16th. I also plan to vote a straight Democratic ticket. I'm wondering if in my ruby red state (Tennessee) it makes a difference to vote on Day1?
Based on what I've learned here and elsewhere about GOTV, I don't think it matters WHERE you vote. If you vote early and campaigns are notified, then they will focus their GOTV efforts elsewhere, which will be more focused and effective.
Also wanted to hype up my younger brother, Mike. He just sent out a great article on his "2024 address" to the Trump camp & the Harris Walz camp (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/my-2024-address-to-trump-world-and).
Michael mentioned it in passing, and Simon said it too before, but Trump is really between a rock and a hard place when it comes to abortion. His political gymnastics only prove he knows how bad of a situation he really is in. If you message this just right, you can choke off Trump on both the abortion swing vote and on the evangelical turnout operation.
We need a monument to Joe next to Franklin.
I imagine the presidential library will be in Wilmington, guess they're starting on the plans soon...:(
[Ot, but inspired by the noting of FDR's commitment to all people's dignity]:
If one has a little down time when not phone-banking, postcarding, or otherwise engaged in the noble cause, the movie Dave (1993) describes the importance and meaning of work, of just having a job.
It's my favorite political movie, though not as apparently sophisticated as The American President or Reds (nor as serious as Lincoln and yes - a fairy tale), it captures our United States' spirit uniquely, humorously, and most affectionately.
I LOVE that film! No, it's not highbrow Aaron Sorkin-esq., it's a comedy with a solid message and fantastic actors. I think I'll watch it on this lovely Labor Day. It's "only" going to be 104 degrees, so it's a good day to stay in, stay cool and watch a funny, feel-good movie. Thanks!
Simon, On this Labor Day I appreciate the FDR quote about the Civilian Conservation Corps ... My father was an alum of the CCC. It helped millions of families who were struggling financially during the Depression, and it also completed thousands of useful conservation projects.
That's wonderful - it sure did! Thanks for sharing that!
There are a number of them up here in the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge that are still in use!
My dad headed a CCC Crew bringing electricity to the AZ mountains. That's how/when he met and married my mom. So I'm especially thankful to FDR!
Thanks, DC native here but I have moved away from the area for budget reasons. Half the monuments you have photos of did not even exist when I was growing up. I love the FDR memorial & am a total fangirl of both him & Eleanor -- I talk about both of them all the time.. Folks should visit the FDR Presidential Museum and Library in Hyde Park if you can - it's amazing. You can also visit the two smaller residences "up the hill" - one where FDR kibitzed with Churchill and the other where Eleanor spent so much of her time.
But it's still the Lincoln Memorial that gets me. I used to work in Arlington & came home over Memorial Bridge. Never fails to be an inspiring sight, especially when lit up at night. I also loved looking across the river at night to Arlington and seeing the Eternal Flame glowing amongst the trees.
Grateful today and every day for this wonderful group, and for all the hard work everyone is doing!