Why, I wonder, do people believe that poll responders are actually answering the questions being asked, as opposed to airing their concerns by the only vehicle they are being given? Concerns include Biden’s age, his running mate’s readiness, back-up plans, what happens after the axe falls on Trump, all needing ventilation with only a “Who Will You Vote For?” as a launch pad? Polls never admit or explore inherent bias, never cite sample size, never reveal the actual questions, and NEVER divulge how many hang-ups they get before they find someone willing to participate.
I think the credible polls do ask some, if not all, of these questions, even if you have to look at pages of cross tabs to get at them. But I’m pretty certain that one of your items is never disclosed— specifically, how many calls does it take to get someone to answer and participate. Does it differ by age or gender? Does it differ by political party? Does it affect the amount of manipulation of the data that’s necessary in order to get a result?
In the last few months I've tried to explain the limitations of polling. Polling is useful, at all times; but the political class needs to be far more careful centering our understanding around an increasingly unreliable tool.
Why would Biden and the Dems not take advantage of the vacancy clause for those 43 appointments? Schumer's only unilateral power appears to be the length of recess. That seems like it would solve a lot of problem, and if it gets challenged and curtailed in the courts well that protects the Dems against a Senate that skews Republican by a few points.
Article II, Section 2, Clause 3: The President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate
I’m sorry to say this, but Republicans are traitors. They support Putin, are anti-democratic, and if they support Trump are apparently not interested in the Constitution either.
I have internalized a lot of Hopium. That said, I am haunted by a theme that Heather develops in many places. It's described throughout Democracy Awakening, with some pithy quotes on page 72:
"....[R's] maintained that control by advancing a false narrative for their supporters that cast their opponents as enemies of the country."
"… We [radical R's] are an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you were studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out we're history's actors… And you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." (Heather is quoting from Ron Suskind, New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004)
It would be so helpful and illuminating to see you and Heather discussing the these two powerful forces and the factors that could tip the scales in either direction, or get ahead of the false narrative, from your different scholarly positions.
That same George W. Bush advisor called the "you" in his statement "the reality-based community."
The way I see it, it is not a matter of tipping completely in one direction or the other, toward or away from established fact and verified, observed reality. There will always be a percentage of the population that believes proven falsehoods. So my approach, not being part of the legal system, but in my civic engagement and electoral activism and personal interactions, is to be unapologetically pro-democratic and pro-human rights and pro-freedom.
It's interesting that Gandhi's term for the essence of nonviolent campaigns was satyagraha, which translates, at least in the version I favor, to clinging to the truth. Simon helps us do that, as do HCR and others.
Love this concept "It's interesting that Gandhi's term for the essence of nonviolent campaigns was satyagraha, which translates, at least in the version I favor, to clinging to the truth. Simon helps us do that, as do HCR and others." But we have to do more than cling; we have to fight, win and prevail." Needs to be more action oriented. "Do more, worry less" is a phrase I am kicking around.
Perhaps the central mission of Hopium is to learn together how to live in truth and not have our daily understanding be driven and dictated by these "false realities" they are creating everyday. Beating them begins with learning how to liberate our understandings from those they are pushing everyday.
This tension continues to haunt me. That's not to say that I don't have plenty of Hopium! What haunts me is that the actual realities created by the false unhinged narratives espoused by the Radical Rs, create actual real consequences. Perhaps hard to directly point to but related nonetheless. Those consequences, as we know, are dangerous and part of the reality and truth within which we need to live. Getting to 55 or more is really important. We have to get ahead of the consequences, including but definitely not limited to various forms of election outcome riggings.
I also think we are all guilty of right wing rubbernecking, staring at, being shocked by, what we are up against. I have become much more disciplined personally about not dwelling on them too much. We know who they are. We need to spend more time making sure everyone knows who we are, the good we've done, our plans for a better future for all.
Trump hung everyone out to dry and everyone in his orbit gets disbarred, fined and/or indicted. Only a lunatic would go anywhere near him now and those that do risk losing everything.
Simon, while walking today (and leaving mail-in voter registration apps for all houses with "senior 2024" yard signs), I listened to your recording from last week.
I'm so excited that Texas has made it onto your list to keep in play. I believe my state house district is definitely flippable.
And...here's the good news. I'm seeing 1) a real opportunity for Dems based on our current STATE situation, as opposed to Washington, which frankly can numb people after a while. Between the real nightmare we're seeing of our state officials overriding doctors and forcing (ill) Texans to leave the state for care, responding to gun violence by loosening gun laws, and a state legislature that refuses to fund public schools, I think we could see a whole new group of voters who, like I say, are worn down by the Washington shenanigans but know what it means when schools are bleeding teachers.
I'm also super excited to see collaboration between LOTS of groups, including the state party, of course, but also "start-up" groups that identified a niche and filled it.
Finally, you're probably aware of Blue Horizon and the super good news about having no state-wide offices and state senate races unopposed next year, and many fewer state rep.
On another matter. I've heawrd that the Biden campaign is not mounting a strong ground campaign. Instead they're relying on advertising and grassroots GOTV efforts. What do you know and think?
Simon, can you explain what you mean by wishing the campaign was further along than they are? I've assumed that the campaign is going to be vigorous, high-energy, and hitting on every level including GOTV, but I've also been assuming that it would not really get rolling until sometime in January. Is there any reason to think they aren't doing things right? (I don't need another worry!)
Simon-Thx for your fact-based newsletter. The data you provide has kept our SW FL Letters to Editor team busy.
The other side is killing us on the immigration issue. Lindsay Graham today on "Meet the Press" was devastating. Can you help us identify data sources that tell us the facts about immigration and border security? Thx, Bill Welsch, Punta Gorda, FL
There is perhaps no place where Republicans get more hysterical and fact-free than on border and immigration issues. I will do a check in on these things this week. It's an area I have a great deal of experience and policy expertise; and it is tough, challenging stuff. No simple answers, silver bullets.
I’ve conducted polls/surveys as a graduate school indentured servant and can attest that polls are unintentionally slanted in wording and biased by such things as age, gender and color of the question asker (me). Mostly unintentional, such slanting is subtle and undetectable. There is also the issue of how many people walk by, refuse to answer, etc. There is, additionally, the phenomena of the people who want to please and answer how they think the questioner wants them to ‘Truth’ is not a criterion when helping (or hindering) the perceived purpose of the poll/survey. People by nature want to be helpful (or contrarian) and want to land on the ‘right’ side, truth be damned.
Why, I wonder, do people believe that poll responders are actually answering the questions being asked, as opposed to airing their concerns by the only vehicle they are being given? Concerns include Biden’s age, his running mate’s readiness, back-up plans, what happens after the axe falls on Trump, all needing ventilation with only a “Who Will You Vote For?” as a launch pad? Polls never admit or explore inherent bias, never cite sample size, never reveal the actual questions, and NEVER divulge how many hang-ups they get before they find someone willing to participate.
I think the credible polls do ask some, if not all, of these questions, even if you have to look at pages of cross tabs to get at them. But I’m pretty certain that one of your items is never disclosed— specifically, how many calls does it take to get someone to answer and participate. Does it differ by age or gender? Does it differ by political party? Does it affect the amount of manipulation of the data that’s necessary in order to get a result?
Calls? Not the best way to reach people under age 60.
In the last few months I've tried to explain the limitations of polling. Polling is useful, at all times; but the political class needs to be far more careful centering our understanding around an increasingly unreliable tool.
Hey Simon,
Why would Biden and the Dems not take advantage of the vacancy clause for those 43 appointments? Schumer's only unilateral power appears to be the length of recess. That seems like it would solve a lot of problem, and if it gets challenged and curtailed in the courts well that protects the Dems against a Senate that skews Republican by a few points.
Article II, Section 2, Clause 3: The President shall have Power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate
My guess is that putting someone in under those circumstances dramatically undercuts their authority but I don't really know.
Disturbing but glad to see the truth in print.
I’m sorry to say this, but Republicans are traitors. They support Putin, are anti-democratic, and if they support Trump are apparently not interested in the Constitution either.
Why apologize for simply stating the truth? If anything, we should be shouting from the rooftops about their treason.
I have internalized a lot of Hopium. That said, I am haunted by a theme that Heather develops in many places. It's described throughout Democracy Awakening, with some pithy quotes on page 72:
"....[R's] maintained that control by advancing a false narrative for their supporters that cast their opponents as enemies of the country."
"… We [radical R's] are an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you were studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out we're history's actors… And you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." (Heather is quoting from Ron Suskind, New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004)
It would be so helpful and illuminating to see you and Heather discussing the these two powerful forces and the factors that could tip the scales in either direction, or get ahead of the false narrative, from your different scholarly positions.
That same George W. Bush advisor called the "you" in his statement "the reality-based community."
The way I see it, it is not a matter of tipping completely in one direction or the other, toward or away from established fact and verified, observed reality. There will always be a percentage of the population that believes proven falsehoods. So my approach, not being part of the legal system, but in my civic engagement and electoral activism and personal interactions, is to be unapologetically pro-democratic and pro-human rights and pro-freedom.
It's interesting that Gandhi's term for the essence of nonviolent campaigns was satyagraha, which translates, at least in the version I favor, to clinging to the truth. Simon helps us do that, as do HCR and others.
Agree totally.
Love this concept "It's interesting that Gandhi's term for the essence of nonviolent campaigns was satyagraha, which translates, at least in the version I favor, to clinging to the truth. Simon helps us do that, as do HCR and others." But we have to do more than cling; we have to fight, win and prevail." Needs to be more action oriented. "Do more, worry less" is a phrase I am kicking around.
Perhaps the central mission of Hopium is to learn together how to live in truth and not have our daily understanding be driven and dictated by these "false realities" they are creating everyday. Beating them begins with learning how to liberate our understandings from those they are pushing everyday.
This tension continues to haunt me. That's not to say that I don't have plenty of Hopium! What haunts me is that the actual realities created by the false unhinged narratives espoused by the Radical Rs, create actual real consequences. Perhaps hard to directly point to but related nonetheless. Those consequences, as we know, are dangerous and part of the reality and truth within which we need to live. Getting to 55 or more is really important. We have to get ahead of the consequences, including but definitely not limited to various forms of election outcome riggings.
I also think we are all guilty of right wing rubbernecking, staring at, being shocked by, what we are up against. I have become much more disciplined personally about not dwelling on them too much. We know who they are. We need to spend more time making sure everyone knows who we are, the good we've done, our plans for a better future for all.
Trump hung everyone out to dry and everyone in his orbit gets disbarred, fined and/or indicted. Only a lunatic would go anywhere near him now and those that do risk losing everything.
Simon, while walking today (and leaving mail-in voter registration apps for all houses with "senior 2024" yard signs), I listened to your recording from last week.
I'm so excited that Texas has made it onto your list to keep in play. I believe my state house district is definitely flippable.
And...here's the good news. I'm seeing 1) a real opportunity for Dems based on our current STATE situation, as opposed to Washington, which frankly can numb people after a while. Between the real nightmare we're seeing of our state officials overriding doctors and forcing (ill) Texans to leave the state for care, responding to gun violence by loosening gun laws, and a state legislature that refuses to fund public schools, I think we could see a whole new group of voters who, like I say, are worn down by the Washington shenanigans but know what it means when schools are bleeding teachers.
I'm also super excited to see collaboration between LOTS of groups, including the state party, of course, but also "start-up" groups that identified a niche and filled it.
Finally, you're probably aware of Blue Horizon and the super good news about having no state-wide offices and state senate races unopposed next year, and many fewer state rep.
Woohoo!
Blue Horizon tweet today:
https://x.com/BlueHorizonTX/status/1735718117819523349?s=20
Yes the candidate recruitment in Texas this year has been deeply encouraging. Open minded about Texas, want to keep learning more.
Rs = Russian 5th Column. BRAVO for calling out.
On another matter. I've heawrd that the Biden campaign is not mounting a strong ground campaign. Instead they're relying on advertising and grassroots GOTV efforts. What do you know and think?
Steven
I don't think this is true, but certainly I think we all want the campaign to be further along than they are.
Simon, can you explain what you mean by wishing the campaign was further along than they are? I've assumed that the campaign is going to be vigorous, high-energy, and hitting on every level including GOTV, but I've also been assuming that it would not really get rolling until sometime in January. Is there any reason to think they aren't doing things right? (I don't need another worry!)
here is another great metric for Joe Biden
Deficit-to-GDP Ratio (numbers in parentheses mean surplus)
Under Jimmy Carter
1977: 2.6%
1981: 2.5%
Change: -0.1%
Under Ronald Reagan
1981: 2.5%
1989: 2.7%
Change: +0.2%
Under George H.W. Bush
1989: 2.7%
1993: 3.7%
Change: +1.0%
Under Bill Clinton
1993: 3.7%
2001: (1.2%)
Change: -4.9%
Under George W. Bush
2001: (1.2%)
2009: 9.8%
Change: +11.0%
Under Barack Obama
2009: 9.8%
2017: 3.4%
Change: -6.4%
Under Donald Trump
2017: 3.4%
2021: 12.1%
Change: +8.7%
Under Joe Biden (thus far)
2021: 12.1%
2023: 6.3%
Change: -5.8%
Average Change
4 Democratic Presidents: -4.3%
4 Republican Presidents: +5.225%
thebalancemoney.com/
Donated and signed up to support Keen’s race in FL - from Minnesota.
thank you Pete.
📣 Deadline to register to vote ➡️ HD -35, Special Election (Tom Keen), January 16⬅️ is tomorrow ,December 18!!📣
https://www.ocfelections.com/hd35specialelection
Simon-Thx for your fact-based newsletter. The data you provide has kept our SW FL Letters to Editor team busy.
The other side is killing us on the immigration issue. Lindsay Graham today on "Meet the Press" was devastating. Can you help us identify data sources that tell us the facts about immigration and border security? Thx, Bill Welsch, Punta Gorda, FL
There is perhaps no place where Republicans get more hysterical and fact-free than on border and immigration issues. I will do a check in on these things this week. It's an area I have a great deal of experience and policy expertise; and it is tough, challenging stuff. No simple answers, silver bullets.
and thank you for what you do! S
More of us should be making calls into HD35! If y'all have time to read substacks and go to webinars about saving democracy, you have time to make some phone calls. If I had a literal whip, I would be cracking it right now lol. They don't have an autodialer BUT you can leave voicemails if no one picks up, so it's worthwhile. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vz-DGKmGkqumWR9c-DVCqgasxOuMxmSBBwZI7qKLfR0/edit?fbclid=IwAR2bbdHzU-2LVVQIs-03DAC639X210HVvuyrTFuaRotnwmv9nlh4Sxv8QDU#gid=18227111
I’ve conducted polls/surveys as a graduate school indentured servant and can attest that polls are unintentionally slanted in wording and biased by such things as age, gender and color of the question asker (me). Mostly unintentional, such slanting is subtle and undetectable. There is also the issue of how many people walk by, refuse to answer, etc. There is, additionally, the phenomena of the people who want to please and answer how they think the questioner wants them to ‘Truth’ is not a criterion when helping (or hindering) the perceived purpose of the poll/survey. People by nature want to be helpful (or contrarian) and want to land on the ‘right’ side, truth be damned.