Happy Thursday, y'all! Go Suozzi! I'm donating monthly to Joe & Kamala as well as the North Carolina Democrats. Let's keep winning because this country is worth believing in - seeing the Democratic Party rise up like this heartens me every single day.
thank you Simon for providing breathing space with facts and analysis—keeping us from flipping or tuning out is essential and a challenge in the face of our collective exhaustion.
in 2022 I heard the ceaseless drumbeat of the supposedly impending red wave and thought, maybe they're wrong. and you know how that turned out. likewise with the relentless bad poll flogging this past year.
can anyone tell me why the political press is consumed by endlessly revealing the MAGA voter but has never done a single piece on Biden voters? why does Abby Phillip think "nobody likes either [Biden or Trump]"? this a continuation of 2016, when they assumed nobody liked Hillary bc...they didn't? in any case, why are we aways written out of the story?
Simon you did great on the Ezra Kline show. It was very good listen and it was good to hear some probing questions of your analysis.
I think Ezra's question about if the soul of the Democratic party matches it's make up misidentifies the largest strength of the party is that it is building a language and coalition that can unite the Working Class and Middle class. When a party can do that, we see something special happen. The Revolution, Civil War, New Deal, and Civil Rights movement.
Taking a step beyond Simon's optimistic forecast for 2024, I'm hoping for a repeat of the 1964 Johnson - Goldwater election. Johnson, running on Great Society policies against a hard right conservative, defeated Goldwater by a 61% to 38% margin.
......
Here's what the NYTs wrote at the time:
Johnson championed his passage of the Civil Rights Act, and advocated a series of anti-poverty programs collectively known as the Great Society. Goldwater espoused a low-tax, small-government philosophy. Although he supported previous attempts at enacting civil rights legislation in 1957 and 1960, Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, saying it violated individual liberty and states' rights. Democrats successfully portrayed Goldwater as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Daisy" television advertisement. The Republicans were divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Rockefeller and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Goldwater. Johnson led by wide margins in all polls during the campaign.
Great meeting, and I have now donated. Simon, re-electing Joe Biden is job 1, and maybe taking the House is job 2, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts about retaining the Senate.
Please, please, please, add Loser to the list of what we can say about this criminal. Trump has lost the majority of American votes in both Presidential elections he was on the ballot for. Plus we know hearing Loser is a thorn for him!
I am wondering whether anyone has had experience using Reach, the relational organizing tool being rolled out by the DNC. I am working on getting a better understanding of how it works and what its potential is, so that I can hopefully spread the word to encourage its use based on being well informed about it. I am not a tech expert, so it is a bit of a mystery to me as to how it works and what the overall strategy is. I am also trying to compare it to other tools like SwipeBlue. So far, Reach seems better, but I want to understand the difference between the two. Anyone is free to email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com if you prefer to do so rather than leaving a comment here.
Thanks for laying it out so clearly and forcefully, Simon! Dobbs is the rocket fuel that is powering Democratic momentum, and it shows no signs of diminishing. It always amazes me how the GOP continually doubles down on losing!
Simon, you note that, "He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it, and shared those secrets with others. It is may be the single greatest betrayal of the country in our history." I heard some good framing on this the other day which is that Trump "has been arrested for" stealing America's secrets, etc. That moves it from just "Democrats making accusations" into a realm that worries more Republicans. It's subtle, but I think saying that "Trump has been arrested" is great framing.
Hi, Simon. Somehow I didn't get this meeting on my calendar, so will watch the video soon as I am coherent enough to follow (not a morning person). However, I did get an invite to Markers for Democracy 5th anniversary celebration via Zoom last eve. Fantastic party! Great group.
I was busy in local politics last session but did do postcards on my one through another org for several key candidates. Good results, but the org was not a good fit for me. Markers for Democracy is fun and provides amazing support. Looking forward to doing this.
I think you are right: if we keep on message, stay focused on the goal (and not let ourselves be distracted by non-issues, and work hard, I think together we can take this election. Not only the Presidency, but a very good chance we can take firm control of the Senate and make inroads in the House- may even get a majority. I'm going to keep that firmly in my mind as I do postcards and local rabble-rousing.
Local here is getting really interesting. The whole town is pushing back on a number of recent decisions made by our select board. For the first time in decades, the town may vote down the town budget if the SB doesn't make some major changes, which appears they are doing. Vermont has three officially recognized parties, and it looks like this select board has managed to offend all three of them- on the same issues! I'm no longer the sole voice, but one of many. We have a dynamite young editor in our community-owned newspaper who has done an impressive job of walking a fine line between objective coverage and editorial calling out. There is hope.
Robert Hubbell's post on his substack mentions Trump calling Nikki Haley a bird brain and links to an article in The Hill titled "Trump warns Haley donors will be ‘permanently barred from the MAGA camp’".
So that got me wondering about the gender split between Trump and Haley voters and how much further Trump's insults could alienate GOP women. The gender difference wasn't as big as I would have expected. (Here is a link to a WaPo article slicing and dicing the demographic data: https://wapo.st/4b7ogsN). What are your thoughts on this? Or do you think that his bragging about killing Roe v. Wade has already alienated most of the women that are reachable?
Does Trumps threats against Haley's financial donors carry any weight or are they just hollow threats? Might it not have the opposite effect and encourage people to donate to Nikki Haley as a "thumb in the eye" for Trump?
Simon are you concerned that the Republicans flipped. house seat in NH because the turn out was so high?
Happy Thursday, y'all! Go Suozzi! I'm donating monthly to Joe & Kamala as well as the North Carolina Democrats. Let's keep winning because this country is worth believing in - seeing the Democratic Party rise up like this heartens me every single day.
thank you Simon for providing breathing space with facts and analysis—keeping us from flipping or tuning out is essential and a challenge in the face of our collective exhaustion.
in 2022 I heard the ceaseless drumbeat of the supposedly impending red wave and thought, maybe they're wrong. and you know how that turned out. likewise with the relentless bad poll flogging this past year.
can anyone tell me why the political press is consumed by endlessly revealing the MAGA voter but has never done a single piece on Biden voters? why does Abby Phillip think "nobody likes either [Biden or Trump]"? this a continuation of 2016, when they assumed nobody liked Hillary bc...they didn't? in any case, why are we aways written out of the story?
Go, Suozzi and North Carolina Dems ! 📲💲✍️
Any Floridians here from House District 91 ? Looks promising to flip your seat !
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/25/boca-raton-democrat-aiming-to-win-florida-house-seat-has-raised-378000/72257079007/
Simon you did great on the Ezra Kline show. It was very good listen and it was good to hear some probing questions of your analysis.
I think Ezra's question about if the soul of the Democratic party matches it's make up misidentifies the largest strength of the party is that it is building a language and coalition that can unite the Working Class and Middle class. When a party can do that, we see something special happen. The Revolution, Civil War, New Deal, and Civil Rights movement.
Loved the presentation yesterday. Donated again to Suozzi and donated to Biden/Harris.
Taking a step beyond Simon's optimistic forecast for 2024, I'm hoping for a repeat of the 1964 Johnson - Goldwater election. Johnson, running on Great Society policies against a hard right conservative, defeated Goldwater by a 61% to 38% margin.
......
Here's what the NYTs wrote at the time:
Johnson championed his passage of the Civil Rights Act, and advocated a series of anti-poverty programs collectively known as the Great Society. Goldwater espoused a low-tax, small-government philosophy. Although he supported previous attempts at enacting civil rights legislation in 1957 and 1960, Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, saying it violated individual liberty and states' rights. Democrats successfully portrayed Goldwater as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Daisy" television advertisement. The Republicans were divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Rockefeller and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Goldwater. Johnson led by wide margins in all polls during the campaign.
Go Joe!!
Great meeting, and I have now donated. Simon, re-electing Joe Biden is job 1, and maybe taking the House is job 2, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts about retaining the Senate.
Please, please, please, add Loser to the list of what we can say about this criminal. Trump has lost the majority of American votes in both Presidential elections he was on the ballot for. Plus we know hearing Loser is a thorn for him!
Just donated to Suozzi again and am a recurring Biden donor. I also spread some Biden cheer to my friends about his move to reschedule marijuana.
I am wondering whether anyone has had experience using Reach, the relational organizing tool being rolled out by the DNC. I am working on getting a better understanding of how it works and what its potential is, so that I can hopefully spread the word to encourage its use based on being well informed about it. I am not a tech expert, so it is a bit of a mystery to me as to how it works and what the overall strategy is. I am also trying to compare it to other tools like SwipeBlue. So far, Reach seems better, but I want to understand the difference between the two. Anyone is free to email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com if you prefer to do so rather than leaving a comment here.
Thanks for laying it out so clearly and forcefully, Simon! Dobbs is the rocket fuel that is powering Democratic momentum, and it shows no signs of diminishing. It always amazes me how the GOP continually doubles down on losing!
Simon, you note that, "He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it, and shared those secrets with others. It is may be the single greatest betrayal of the country in our history." I heard some good framing on this the other day which is that Trump "has been arrested for" stealing America's secrets, etc. That moves it from just "Democrats making accusations" into a realm that worries more Republicans. It's subtle, but I think saying that "Trump has been arrested" is great framing.
Hi, Simon. Somehow I didn't get this meeting on my calendar, so will watch the video soon as I am coherent enough to follow (not a morning person). However, I did get an invite to Markers for Democracy 5th anniversary celebration via Zoom last eve. Fantastic party! Great group.
I was busy in local politics last session but did do postcards on my one through another org for several key candidates. Good results, but the org was not a good fit for me. Markers for Democracy is fun and provides amazing support. Looking forward to doing this.
I think you are right: if we keep on message, stay focused on the goal (and not let ourselves be distracted by non-issues, and work hard, I think together we can take this election. Not only the Presidency, but a very good chance we can take firm control of the Senate and make inroads in the House- may even get a majority. I'm going to keep that firmly in my mind as I do postcards and local rabble-rousing.
Local here is getting really interesting. The whole town is pushing back on a number of recent decisions made by our select board. For the first time in decades, the town may vote down the town budget if the SB doesn't make some major changes, which appears they are doing. Vermont has three officially recognized parties, and it looks like this select board has managed to offend all three of them- on the same issues! I'm no longer the sole voice, but one of many. We have a dynamite young editor in our community-owned newspaper who has done an impressive job of walking a fine line between objective coverage and editorial calling out. There is hope.
Per your comment regarding Trump being far more degraded, the Lincoln Project recently released this ad:
Stable Genius https://youtu.be/xgvemm9-mkY
They also did two about the NH primary and Trump's problems with moderate voters.
New Hampshire Voters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NKO_Cn-hzo
Moderates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ506t_UD20
Robert Hubbell's post on his substack mentions Trump calling Nikki Haley a bird brain and links to an article in The Hill titled "Trump warns Haley donors will be ‘permanently barred from the MAGA camp’".
So that got me wondering about the gender split between Trump and Haley voters and how much further Trump's insults could alienate GOP women. The gender difference wasn't as big as I would have expected. (Here is a link to a WaPo article slicing and dicing the demographic data: https://wapo.st/4b7ogsN). What are your thoughts on this? Or do you think that his bragging about killing Roe v. Wade has already alienated most of the women that are reachable?
Does Trumps threats against Haley's financial donors carry any weight or are they just hollow threats? Might it not have the opposite effect and encourage people to donate to Nikki Haley as a "thumb in the eye" for Trump?