There were two special elections in the NH legislature. One was a Biden plus district which flipped R. It was reported in Daily Kos down ballot. Turnout of R voters to vote for Trump was the proffered reason.
Yes, given that Biden and the national party did not compete and R turnout dwarfed ours was probably inevitable. Far more salient data is Biden besting Trump's vote share without being on the ballot, and Trump meaningfully underperforming the public polls.
This primary was not sanctioned by the national party due to a dispute and it was a highly usual circumstance bound to create a massive GOP turnout advantage.
Given that the record R turnout in the NH primary seems to have been because of the Haley voters who showed up and gave her more votes than expected, aren't they probably the reason the seat flipped? And do we know how many Ds vs. Rs voted on Tuesday?
Happy Thursday, y'all! Go Suozzi! I'm donating monthly to Joe & Kamala as well as the North Carolina Democrats. Let's keep winning because this country is worth believing in - seeing the Democratic Party rise up like this heartens me every single day.
thank you Simon for providing breathing space with facts and analysis—keeping us from flipping or tuning out is essential and a challenge in the face of our collective exhaustion.
in 2022 I heard the ceaseless drumbeat of the supposedly impending red wave and thought, maybe they're wrong. and you know how that turned out. likewise with the relentless bad poll flogging this past year.
can anyone tell me why the political press is consumed by endlessly revealing the MAGA voter but has never done a single piece on Biden voters? why does Abby Phillip think "nobody likes either [Biden or Trump]"? this a continuation of 2016, when they assumed nobody liked Hillary bc...they didn't? in any case, why are we aways written out of the story?
This past week, for the first time, the mainstream media is actually covering Trump's decline - and I heard several references to Simon (thanks, Simon) as a source on some of the more liberal ones. I've been hammering at this in various places for ages, as have others. It's startling that some of the reporters are acting as if this is something they just noticed. But at least they are finally covering it, and some actually comparing apples to apples. Both men are old, but one is declining rapidly, acts irrational, and is often barely intelligible. The other is running the country. Suddenly, polls are starting to show that Trump isn't doing all that well, and even his base seems to be drifting away. And all of a sudden there are reports about all the things Biden has been doing. Well, gosh.
Let's hope this kind of honest coverage is a trend.
There has definitely been some sort of shift in coverage.
I agree with this. Trump's decline is evident for all to see. Many national reporters had not seem him in years and I think everyone came away with the sense that he is diminished, degraded, and far more erratic than before. Media narrative is turning on him, as it should. He's the most unfit man to run for President in all of our history.
Another surprising piece in another outlet I read today... Can't remember where now (have read all day because freezing rain), but I remember feeling pleased and a little surprised, given some of the blindered stuff they've published lately. But I also may have missed some good stuff. Snow days are play days for me.
Dang, I just remembered I didn't bring in wood. Not going out now. Going to bed.
It feels like a fever has broken and reality is slowly ( but noticeably) breaking through the MSM
F-I-N-A-L-Y 😤.
And this is just the start! Ludlow at Fox actually complimented Biden’s work although a tad grudgingly. Good article from Tomasky; thanks.
My favorite is the exposing of the GOP’s truly shameless refusal to work with Republican senators and Democrats to improve immigration bc DJT wants to use it politically against Biden. Thats a truly ugly position they’ve adopted; now fully exposed. And being spoken about all over the MSM. Romney called it “appalling “
I thought it also so heartening to read about The MeidasTouch being ranked #1 on YouTube ahead of even Fox. It speaks to the hunger people have to hear what’s really going on in government. I know I really enjoy the “ gladiator fights” of our reps like Muskovitz ( Fl) and Crockett (Tx) and others, inserting facts and truths to counter all the bs the GOP presents on their committees.
And with Simon making the rounds so heavily in MSM and other arenas it appears the facts and truth may be starting to make a difference.
🙌🏻 YAY!! Definitely the Hopium Chronicles way of speaking out “ loud and proud”!!!💃
I know it's not one of the "swing states" anymore, but we need to invest in Florida again. So many opportunities with resources and work that could go our way.
I am not giving up on Florida. Two of our most important projects at Hopium have been Donna Deegan and Tom Keen. We have work to do, and it could take some time, but we cannot give up on Florida.
That's one of the reasons I am a Hopium member is because you are making a big effort in Florida (as well as many other places) We are already seeing strong green shoots.
I donate to Debbie M and The Women’s group fighting for reproductive rights. It feels like Floridians have been over misrepresented by the far right and are ready to fight back!
Simon you did great on the Ezra Kline show. It was very good listen and it was good to hear some probing questions of your analysis.
I think Ezra's question about if the soul of the Democratic party matches it's make up misidentifies the largest strength of the party is that it is building a language and coalition that can unite the Working Class and Middle class. When a party can do that, we see something special happen. The Revolution, Civil War, New Deal, and Civil Rights movement.
Great observation about the party. Love it! Going to look to see if I have access to Ezra Kline's show. (Access to some media limited in some ways here- usually not a handicap but some things I wish I could get to- like this!)
Ha! NYTimes paywall, but found the podcast and listened elsewhere. Interesting program. I don't know Kline's inclinations, but he came across as somewhat cynical and asked some hard questions. Some interviewers do that to elicit deep answers from their guest, so perhaps that's where he was coming from. He did it very well, and gave Simon a good lead-in. Simon laid out his observations so convincingly that Klines feedback sounded very positive. Great take-aways.
Here is the link to this challenging interview. Listen and comment like I did on YT or here. Simon was fantastic. Thanks Josh for sharing.
The tide is turning blue, but Ezra doesn’t ‘feel’ it yet. Vibes vs Facts is essentially discussed in this.
Too much to comment on in this hour, but will say this about ‘loosing R’s or white male low ed or low income workers’......
Biden’s huge endorsement by UAW and pro-union anti- trust/monopoly stance will certainly boost that.
Simon, you BROUGHT IT, in this interview (especially in closing)and I hope Ezra replays this before he writes and he gets at least a Hopium contact buzz!!!!
“.... Polarization has been created & fostered by a political leader & his allies in the right wing media and the idea that some how we
(Dems) are responsible for the polarization in the country right now is just unbelievable BS!....”
Yeah, to bolster my comment about the Dems building a language and coalition to encompass both the Working Class and Middle Class you see the successful democrats effectively using this language. Just looking at the midterms, Warnock, and Fetterman both effectively speak to middleclass and working class without alienating one side.
And I think the specific concern Ezra was voicing is as the democrats sound elitist, but I think inauthentic is probably more accurate, you see it with ineffective politicians. And when you look at someone like Tim Ryan/Hillary if they are clearly being inauthentic about one part of their story and they fall short. I knocked 400 doors for Tim Ryan and I honestly think he would have won if he was just said damn right I am a Democrat, because we want a healthy society and JD wants fame so he will go along with whatever weird shit they want. When I knocked doors around Akron, most of the Dems I spoke to were pumped on our house candidate but said they didn't feel like Tim was really a Dem.
Not sure it made it into the final cut buy I reminded Ezra that we won under 100k voters in 2020 by 13 points, and we did better most of the major industrial heartland states in 2022 than we did in 2020, incl MI and PA. Im not sure my answer to this portion of the interview was as cogent as I would have wanted, for I wasn't really sure I understood all of the argument. We've been winning low income voters. They win among higher income voters. And yes we may be winning more high income voters but there is evidence yet of erosion on the other side of it that has become meaningful in our elections.
It made it. I have a friend who brings up the same argument to me about Dems winning higher propensity voters but Trump/Republicans are winning lower propensity voters. To me that sounds like All Squares are Rectangles therefore all Rectangles are Squares.
It just seems to me that we have rather effectively taken a large chunk of their most reliable voters.
I tried very hard to dubunk that argument in the interview. It is a theory, and something that has never actually played out in an actual election, and I dont think will in 2024.
I'll just say it; Ezra is insufferable. So is the NYT, tbh. Faced with facts that he is wrong Ezra doubled down and acted like he knew more about economic "vibes" than Simon. He's just another navel gazer who thinks because he has a platform in a once venerated medium he is somehow an expert. The role of the journalist, Dave Barry once noted, is to sound like an expert on things you know almost nothing about. I wrote about fisheries back in the day. I have degrees in English and Social Work, not marine biology, so I know the deal....
It was awesome. I gave to Suozzi and NC yesterday. I'm trying to stay focused on those until after the special election in NY, but I'm itching to help other candidates as well. I particularly would love to take down Marsha Blackburn and Rick Scott.
Taking a step beyond Simon's optimistic forecast for 2024, I'm hoping for a repeat of the 1964 Johnson - Goldwater election. Johnson, running on Great Society policies against a hard right conservative, defeated Goldwater by a 61% to 38% margin.
......
Here's what the NYTs wrote at the time:
Johnson championed his passage of the Civil Rights Act, and advocated a series of anti-poverty programs collectively known as the Great Society. Goldwater espoused a low-tax, small-government philosophy. Although he supported previous attempts at enacting civil rights legislation in 1957 and 1960, Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, saying it violated individual liberty and states' rights. Democrats successfully portrayed Goldwater as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Daisy" television advertisement. The Republicans were divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Rockefeller and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Goldwater. Johnson led by wide margins in all polls during the campaign.
Great meeting, and I have now donated. Simon, re-electing Joe Biden is job 1, and maybe taking the House is job 2, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts about retaining the Senate.
Please, please, please, add Loser to the list of what we can say about this criminal. Trump has lost the majority of American votes in both Presidential elections he was on the ballot for. Plus we know hearing Loser is a thorn for him!
I am wondering whether anyone has had experience using Reach, the relational organizing tool being rolled out by the DNC. I am working on getting a better understanding of how it works and what its potential is, so that I can hopefully spread the word to encourage its use based on being well informed about it. I am not a tech expert, so it is a bit of a mystery to me as to how it works and what the overall strategy is. I am also trying to compare it to other tools like SwipeBlue. So far, Reach seems better, but I want to understand the difference between the two. Anyone is free to email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com if you prefer to do so rather than leaving a comment here.
Thanks for laying it out so clearly and forcefully, Simon! Dobbs is the rocket fuel that is powering Democratic momentum, and it shows no signs of diminishing. It always amazes me how the GOP continually doubles down on losing!
Simon, you note that, "He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it, and shared those secrets with others. It is may be the single greatest betrayal of the country in our history." I heard some good framing on this the other day which is that Trump "has been arrested for" stealing America's secrets, etc. That moves it from just "Democrats making accusations" into a realm that worries more Republicans. It's subtle, but I think saying that "Trump has been arrested" is great framing.
Hi, Simon. Somehow I didn't get this meeting on my calendar, so will watch the video soon as I am coherent enough to follow (not a morning person). However, I did get an invite to Markers for Democracy 5th anniversary celebration via Zoom last eve. Fantastic party! Great group.
I was busy in local politics last session but did do postcards on my one through another org for several key candidates. Good results, but the org was not a good fit for me. Markers for Democracy is fun and provides amazing support. Looking forward to doing this.
I think you are right: if we keep on message, stay focused on the goal (and not let ourselves be distracted by non-issues, and work hard, I think together we can take this election. Not only the Presidency, but a very good chance we can take firm control of the Senate and make inroads in the House- may even get a majority. I'm going to keep that firmly in my mind as I do postcards and local rabble-rousing.
Local here is getting really interesting. The whole town is pushing back on a number of recent decisions made by our select board. For the first time in decades, the town may vote down the town budget if the SB doesn't make some major changes, which appears they are doing. Vermont has three officially recognized parties, and it looks like this select board has managed to offend all three of them- on the same issues! I'm no longer the sole voice, but one of many. We have a dynamite young editor in our community-owned newspaper who has done an impressive job of walking a fine line between objective coverage and editorial calling out. There is hope.
Are you signed up for Sundays with Suozzi? Markers for Democracy is one of the co-sponsors. There are two more of them - this Sunday and Feb 4th. I went to the one this past Sunday and it was a lot of fun!!
Robert Hubbell's post on his substack mentions Trump calling Nikki Haley a bird brain and links to an article in The Hill titled "Trump warns Haley donors will be ‘permanently barred from the MAGA camp’".
So that got me wondering about the gender split between Trump and Haley voters and how much further Trump's insults could alienate GOP women. The gender difference wasn't as big as I would have expected. (Here is a link to a WaPo article slicing and dicing the demographic data: https://wapo.st/4b7ogsN). What are your thoughts on this? Or do you think that his bragging about killing Roe v. Wade has already alienated most of the women that are reachable?
Does Trumps threats against Haley's financial donors carry any weight or are they just hollow threats? Might it not have the opposite effect and encourage people to donate to Nikki Haley as a "thumb in the eye" for Trump?
The Haley Superpac announced today they had out-raised Trump in the last half of 2023. Appears she is going to go for it, and she should. He is weak, and terrible.
Simon are you concerned that the Republicans flipped. house seat in NH because the turn out was so high?
Please send me more info
There were two special elections in the NH legislature. One was a Biden plus district which flipped R. It was reported in Daily Kos down ballot. Turnout of R voters to vote for Trump was the proffered reason.
Yes, given that Biden and the national party did not compete and R turnout dwarfed ours was probably inevitable. Far more salient data is Biden besting Trump's vote share without being on the ballot, and Trump meaningfully underperforming the public polls.
Meaning I am not concerned.
This primary was not sanctioned by the national party due to a dispute and it was a highly usual circumstance bound to create a massive GOP turnout advantage.
Got it. Thanks!
Given that the record R turnout in the NH primary seems to have been because of the Haley voters who showed up and gave her more votes than expected, aren't they probably the reason the seat flipped? And do we know how many Ds vs. Rs voted on Tuesday?
Happy Thursday, y'all! Go Suozzi! I'm donating monthly to Joe & Kamala as well as the North Carolina Democrats. Let's keep winning because this country is worth believing in - seeing the Democratic Party rise up like this heartens me every single day.
thank you Simon for providing breathing space with facts and analysis—keeping us from flipping or tuning out is essential and a challenge in the face of our collective exhaustion.
in 2022 I heard the ceaseless drumbeat of the supposedly impending red wave and thought, maybe they're wrong. and you know how that turned out. likewise with the relentless bad poll flogging this past year.
can anyone tell me why the political press is consumed by endlessly revealing the MAGA voter but has never done a single piece on Biden voters? why does Abby Phillip think "nobody likes either [Biden or Trump]"? this a continuation of 2016, when they assumed nobody liked Hillary bc...they didn't? in any case, why are we aways written out of the story?
This past week, for the first time, the mainstream media is actually covering Trump's decline - and I heard several references to Simon (thanks, Simon) as a source on some of the more liberal ones. I've been hammering at this in various places for ages, as have others. It's startling that some of the reporters are acting as if this is something they just noticed. But at least they are finally covering it, and some actually comparing apples to apples. Both men are old, but one is declining rapidly, acts irrational, and is often barely intelligible. The other is running the country. Suddenly, polls are starting to show that Trump isn't doing all that well, and even his base seems to be drifting away. And all of a sudden there are reports about all the things Biden has been doing. Well, gosh.
Let's hope this kind of honest coverage is a trend.
There has definitely been some sort of shift in coverage.
I agree with this. Trump's decline is evident for all to see. Many national reporters had not seem him in years and I think everyone came away with the sense that he is diminished, degraded, and far more erratic than before. Media narrative is turning on him, as it should. He's the most unfit man to run for President in all of our history.
Amen to that.
Michael Tomasky wrote a nifty piece a day or so ago in The New Republic. Link should open to all.
https://newrepublic.com/article/178288/trump-haley-pelosi-media-2024
Another surprising piece in another outlet I read today... Can't remember where now (have read all day because freezing rain), but I remember feeling pleased and a little surprised, given some of the blindered stuff they've published lately. But I also may have missed some good stuff. Snow days are play days for me.
Dang, I just remembered I didn't bring in wood. Not going out now. Going to bed.
I agree Annie! 👋
It feels like a fever has broken and reality is slowly ( but noticeably) breaking through the MSM
F-I-N-A-L-Y 😤.
And this is just the start! Ludlow at Fox actually complimented Biden’s work although a tad grudgingly. Good article from Tomasky; thanks.
My favorite is the exposing of the GOP’s truly shameless refusal to work with Republican senators and Democrats to improve immigration bc DJT wants to use it politically against Biden. Thats a truly ugly position they’ve adopted; now fully exposed. And being spoken about all over the MSM. Romney called it “appalling “
I thought it also so heartening to read about The MeidasTouch being ranked #1 on YouTube ahead of even Fox. It speaks to the hunger people have to hear what’s really going on in government. I know I really enjoy the “ gladiator fights” of our reps like Muskovitz ( Fl) and Crockett (Tx) and others, inserting facts and truths to counter all the bs the GOP presents on their committees.
And with Simon making the rounds so heavily in MSM and other arenas it appears the facts and truth may be starting to make a difference.
🙌🏻 YAY!! Definitely the Hopium Chronicles way of speaking out “ loud and proud”!!!💃
Go, Suozzi and North Carolina Dems ! 📲💲✍️
Any Floridians here from House District 91 ? Looks promising to flip your seat !
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/25/boca-raton-democrat-aiming-to-win-florida-house-seat-has-raised-378000/72257079007/
I know it's not one of the "swing states" anymore, but we need to invest in Florida again. So many opportunities with resources and work that could go our way.
I am not giving up on Florida. Two of our most important projects at Hopium have been Donna Deegan and Tom Keen. We have work to do, and it could take some time, but we cannot give up on Florida.
That's one of the reasons I am a Hopium member is because you are making a big effort in Florida (as well as many other places) We are already seeing strong green shoots.
I’m with you Alice!
I donate to Debbie M and The Women’s group fighting for reproductive rights. It feels like Floridians have been over misrepresented by the far right and are ready to fight back!
Simon you did great on the Ezra Kline show. It was very good listen and it was good to hear some probing questions of your analysis.
I think Ezra's question about if the soul of the Democratic party matches it's make up misidentifies the largest strength of the party is that it is building a language and coalition that can unite the Working Class and Middle class. When a party can do that, we see something special happen. The Revolution, Civil War, New Deal, and Civil Rights movement.
Great observation about the party. Love it! Going to look to see if I have access to Ezra Kline's show. (Access to some media limited in some ways here- usually not a handicap but some things I wish I could get to- like this!)
Ha! NYTimes paywall, but found the podcast and listened elsewhere. Interesting program. I don't know Kline's inclinations, but he came across as somewhat cynical and asked some hard questions. Some interviewers do that to elicit deep answers from their guest, so perhaps that's where he was coming from. He did it very well, and gave Simon a good lead-in. Simon laid out his observations so convincingly that Klines feedback sounded very positive. Great take-aways.
I liked his appearance with Rick Wilson on Tuesday night, too.
I can't wait to listen to it; Klein is usually in the Dems are doomed camp.
https://youtu.be/Dj1lYIXfInA?si=ju-BSWuXqBC0zRag
Here is the link to this challenging interview. Listen and comment like I did on YT or here. Simon was fantastic. Thanks Josh for sharing.
The tide is turning blue, but Ezra doesn’t ‘feel’ it yet. Vibes vs Facts is essentially discussed in this.
Too much to comment on in this hour, but will say this about ‘loosing R’s or white male low ed or low income workers’......
Biden’s huge endorsement by UAW and pro-union anti- trust/monopoly stance will certainly boost that.
Simon, you BROUGHT IT, in this interview (especially in closing)and I hope Ezra replays this before he writes and he gets at least a Hopium contact buzz!!!!
“.... Polarization has been created & fostered by a political leader & his allies in the right wing media and the idea that some how we
(Dems) are responsible for the polarization in the country right now is just unbelievable BS!....”
------Simon
AMEN! Hug from NC
Yeah, to bolster my comment about the Dems building a language and coalition to encompass both the Working Class and Middle Class you see the successful democrats effectively using this language. Just looking at the midterms, Warnock, and Fetterman both effectively speak to middleclass and working class without alienating one side.
And I think the specific concern Ezra was voicing is as the democrats sound elitist, but I think inauthentic is probably more accurate, you see it with ineffective politicians. And when you look at someone like Tim Ryan/Hillary if they are clearly being inauthentic about one part of their story and they fall short. I knocked 400 doors for Tim Ryan and I honestly think he would have won if he was just said damn right I am a Democrat, because we want a healthy society and JD wants fame so he will go along with whatever weird shit they want. When I knocked doors around Akron, most of the Dems I spoke to were pumped on our house candidate but said they didn't feel like Tim was really a Dem.
Not sure it made it into the final cut buy I reminded Ezra that we won under 100k voters in 2020 by 13 points, and we did better most of the major industrial heartland states in 2022 than we did in 2020, incl MI and PA. Im not sure my answer to this portion of the interview was as cogent as I would have wanted, for I wasn't really sure I understood all of the argument. We've been winning low income voters. They win among higher income voters. And yes we may be winning more high income voters but there is evidence yet of erosion on the other side of it that has become meaningful in our elections.
It made it. I have a friend who brings up the same argument to me about Dems winning higher propensity voters but Trump/Republicans are winning lower propensity voters. To me that sounds like All Squares are Rectangles therefore all Rectangles are Squares.
It just seems to me that we have rather effectively taken a large chunk of their most reliable voters.
I tried very hard to dubunk that argument in the interview. It is a theory, and something that has never actually played out in an actual election, and I dont think will in 2024.
I'll just say it; Ezra is insufferable. So is the NYT, tbh. Faced with facts that he is wrong Ezra doubled down and acted like he knew more about economic "vibes" than Simon. He's just another navel gazer who thinks because he has a platform in a once venerated medium he is somehow an expert. The role of the journalist, Dave Barry once noted, is to sound like an expert on things you know almost nothing about. I wrote about fisheries back in the day. I have degrees in English and Social Work, not marine biology, so I know the deal....
Thank you my friend. Am so grateful that you are part of this community.
Loved the presentation yesterday. Donated again to Suozzi and donated to Biden/Harris.
It was awesome. I gave to Suozzi and NC yesterday. I'm trying to stay focused on those until after the special election in NY, but I'm itching to help other candidates as well. I particularly would love to take down Marsha Blackburn and Rick Scott.
thank you!
thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Taking a step beyond Simon's optimistic forecast for 2024, I'm hoping for a repeat of the 1964 Johnson - Goldwater election. Johnson, running on Great Society policies against a hard right conservative, defeated Goldwater by a 61% to 38% margin.
......
Here's what the NYTs wrote at the time:
Johnson championed his passage of the Civil Rights Act, and advocated a series of anti-poverty programs collectively known as the Great Society. Goldwater espoused a low-tax, small-government philosophy. Although he supported previous attempts at enacting civil rights legislation in 1957 and 1960, Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, saying it violated individual liberty and states' rights. Democrats successfully portrayed Goldwater as a dangerous extremist, most famously in the "Daisy" television advertisement. The Republicans were divided between its moderate and conservative factions, with Rockefeller and other moderate party leaders refusing to campaign for Goldwater. Johnson led by wide margins in all polls during the campaign.
Go Joe!!
Very interesting insight. Thanks for sharing.
Merrill, I find this insight to be brilliant! Yes, you are spot-on to say this is our LBJ and the Great Society moment.
Bidenomics is the future, of democray guiding our capitalist economy - toward 'libety an justice for all.'
Great meeting, and I have now donated. Simon, re-electing Joe Biden is job 1, and maybe taking the House is job 2, but I would be interested to hear your thoughts about retaining the Senate.
Thank you! I am optimistic we can keep the Senate 50-50, and am not yet giving up on FL or TX.
Please, please, please, add Loser to the list of what we can say about this criminal. Trump has lost the majority of American votes in both Presidential elections he was on the ballot for. Plus we know hearing Loser is a thorn for him!
Simon & Joe has said it! So you certainly can too!
Good counsel.
Just donated to Suozzi again and am a recurring Biden donor. I also spread some Biden cheer to my friends about his move to reschedule marijuana.
Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am wondering whether anyone has had experience using Reach, the relational organizing tool being rolled out by the DNC. I am working on getting a better understanding of how it works and what its potential is, so that I can hopefully spread the word to encourage its use based on being well informed about it. I am not a tech expert, so it is a bit of a mystery to me as to how it works and what the overall strategy is. I am also trying to compare it to other tools like SwipeBlue. So far, Reach seems better, but I want to understand the difference between the two. Anyone is free to email me at vthuronyi@gmail.com if you prefer to do so rather than leaving a comment here.
Folks, anyone want to weigh in here?
Thanks for laying it out so clearly and forcefully, Simon! Dobbs is the rocket fuel that is powering Democratic momentum, and it shows no signs of diminishing. It always amazes me how the GOP continually doubles down on losing!
Yep!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simon, you note that, "He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it, and shared those secrets with others. It is may be the single greatest betrayal of the country in our history." I heard some good framing on this the other day which is that Trump "has been arrested for" stealing America's secrets, etc. That moves it from just "Democrats making accusations" into a realm that worries more Republicans. It's subtle, but I think saying that "Trump has been arrested" is great framing.
I think this is wise. Let me play with it.
Hi, Simon. Somehow I didn't get this meeting on my calendar, so will watch the video soon as I am coherent enough to follow (not a morning person). However, I did get an invite to Markers for Democracy 5th anniversary celebration via Zoom last eve. Fantastic party! Great group.
I was busy in local politics last session but did do postcards on my one through another org for several key candidates. Good results, but the org was not a good fit for me. Markers for Democracy is fun and provides amazing support. Looking forward to doing this.
I think you are right: if we keep on message, stay focused on the goal (and not let ourselves be distracted by non-issues, and work hard, I think together we can take this election. Not only the Presidency, but a very good chance we can take firm control of the Senate and make inroads in the House- may even get a majority. I'm going to keep that firmly in my mind as I do postcards and local rabble-rousing.
Local here is getting really interesting. The whole town is pushing back on a number of recent decisions made by our select board. For the first time in decades, the town may vote down the town budget if the SB doesn't make some major changes, which appears they are doing. Vermont has three officially recognized parties, and it looks like this select board has managed to offend all three of them- on the same issues! I'm no longer the sole voice, but one of many. We have a dynamite young editor in our community-owned newspaper who has done an impressive job of walking a fine line between objective coverage and editorial calling out. There is hope.
Are you signed up for Sundays with Suozzi? Markers for Democracy is one of the co-sponsors. There are two more of them - this Sunday and Feb 4th. I went to the one this past Sunday and it was a lot of fun!!
Thanks for heads up. Sunday is my granddaughter's BD, but I'll work on stuff next week and try to make Feb 4.
Per your comment regarding Trump being far more degraded, the Lincoln Project recently released this ad:
Stable Genius https://youtu.be/xgvemm9-mkY
They also did two about the NH primary and Trump's problems with moderate voters.
New Hampshire Voters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NKO_Cn-hzo
Moderates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ506t_UD20
Robert Hubbell's post on his substack mentions Trump calling Nikki Haley a bird brain and links to an article in The Hill titled "Trump warns Haley donors will be ‘permanently barred from the MAGA camp’".
So that got me wondering about the gender split between Trump and Haley voters and how much further Trump's insults could alienate GOP women. The gender difference wasn't as big as I would have expected. (Here is a link to a WaPo article slicing and dicing the demographic data: https://wapo.st/4b7ogsN). What are your thoughts on this? Or do you think that his bragging about killing Roe v. Wade has already alienated most of the women that are reachable?
Does Trumps threats against Haley's financial donors carry any weight or are they just hollow threats? Might it not have the opposite effect and encourage people to donate to Nikki Haley as a "thumb in the eye" for Trump?
The Haley Superpac announced today they had out-raised Trump in the last half of 2023. Appears she is going to go for it, and she should. He is weak, and terrible.