Statistical overperformance in election results is a common analysis within political science. Actual performance is measured against factors including historical trends, polling data, and expert predictions. Simon has discussed it extensively, especially how undecided voters and low (political) information voters broke for trump in the final days.
I know you are a mathematician and I am a PhD scientist whose research employed mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of complex systems. I'm saying it's better to receive the message that is being delivered than to get hung up on terminology.
Emily 2 points here 1) no need to be so combative. 2) this terminology is in common use in our business and as Deborah mentions it is also being correctly used as it represents an over performance against the partisan lean or recent performances of these states or districts and conveys electoral strenght or weakness. We don’t talk to voters here we talk to activitists and I work hard to be as precise as I can in all my commentary. In this case I want to say respectfully that I think you are wrong and should work a bit harder to understand the math and logic behind the analysis.
Appreciate Simon’s talk,as I was a bit down. Yes to Ridicule! Ridicule is what wannabe strong men free the most ~~ Ruth Ben Giat.
For years now what has helped me psychologically is that whenever I hear Trump speak, esp putting others down, which is ALl the time I say: talking about yourself again …it sooo helps.
Finally, I agree with Simon about Trump not wanting the job as Pres. I’m toying with the fact that Trump doesn’t like America. To me that puts a clarity on all his actions . He doesn’t like America!
Well, we Americans love America, proud of our Constitution and its rights, protections, founded in decency. He doesn’t like US!
Agreed Mary, I don't think he EVER wanted to be President, even back in 2016. He just wanted to prove he could win and never thought past that. Because all that matters to him is exactly as Simon has often described -- win/lose; weak/strong; huge/small; tough/wimp and yes rich/poor. Not to be a broken record, but those of who grew up in NY always knew this about him -- he's the 3rd grader we couldn't stand in school. And he still is. He was always impressed by the mob in NY. Always loved the tough guy. But he wouldn't have lasted one minute with them because he is a spineless, weak blubbering baby man. He's got that big mouth with that loud NY speak that fools people into sounding tough and powerful when it's all a facade.
Does he hate America? He loves it because it allowed him to become who he is (pre-2016) .... but does he love it the way a true patriot does? Whose immigrants grandparents came to this country looking for a better life? Whose fathers fought in WWII to stop an evil dictator from destroying Europe and the world? The way those of us who still get chills when we view the magnificence of this beautiful city (Washington) rather than degrade and insult it? The way those of us still get chills when we view and salute the American flag? The way those of us who like to be greeted with "Welcome home" when we come back from Europe through Dulles Airport immigration? The way we look out for our neighbors and those less fortunate than we are? NO, he doesn't love this country.
"The notion that democracy finds its strength in its essential goodness and moral improvement over its rival systems is fanciful. Instead, democratic societies flourish because they have a memory of being nearly obliterated by an external enemy. They avoided extinction only through collective action, and the memory of that collective action makes democratic politics easier to conduct in the present..."
--Peter Turchin, historian (as paraphrased by The Atlantic)
Can't argue with that, Gina. I try to remember the time I was tasked with putting together a month long educational celebration online in 60 days. Pretty much everyone except a brilliant online community leader named Sheryl Nussbaum-Beach I worked with thought it was going to be a catastrophic failure. It was anything but. In hindsight, we realized the key to success wasn't really much different than climbing any other mountain. Put one foot in front of another and **don't look up** until you find yourself on the peak.
Yeah, I know, a total cliché. I think the problem in this case is that there is so much **** flying at us every day it feels like you're running from mountain to mountain, trying to climb them all at once, but why are we doing that? I remember Simon telling us that when we're talking to undecided people, we should pick one thing we know about and feel passionate about and focus our whole pitch on that. And I wonder why the Democrats aren't doing that in a formal organized way.
Because no matter how many outrages he throws out there, there will always be tens of thousands of people for whom that outrage is personal, more than enough to kick each one right back down his throat, and thanks to online tech and online community-building functionality, it only takes a few dozen people to bring together and organize the rest.
Why isn't there a mechanism set up that allows some subset of us, every time something else happens we OMG over, to say to the rest, "hey, we got this one," with another mechanism set up like Simon's self-reporting for each "outrage community" to be able to report to the community as a whole what they're doing as a group, so people know that "hey, we got this" *means* "we got this."
This is a war, and isn't that how the military would do it? Different companies taking different hills, different battalions taking on different battles that those hills sum up to--energy, the environment, immigration, etc? Sure there are organizations associated with every issue under the sun, and they're part of the solution, but the lifeblood of grassroots self-organizing communities necessary to win a fight like this only seems to flow through a small subset of them. We win at Hopium when we focus. We just need more Hopiums so we know someone else has our flanks covered and is as focused on what we can't as we are. My 2 cents.
The Trump administration has stopped collecting climate data and removed it from websites. Now the government is setting aside money for Norway to secure the data.
The goal is to protect health and climate data in particular, which is largely stored in the US. American research policy has changed very quickly. There is uncertainty about funding, and there is also uncertainty about some of these important data sources, especially in the areas of climate and health.
"There is uncertainty about whether this data will be safeguarded, maintained and made available. We want to ensure that we can safeguard and take responsibility for that," says Minister of Research Sigrun Aasland.
Trump Cancels Grants to Study Online Misinformation: "The Trump administration has sharply expanded its campaign against experts who track misinformation and other harmful content online, abruptly canceling scores of scientific research grants at universities across the country,” the New York Times reports.
Thought: Given the sorry excuse for what currently passes for American "government", the only way to continue this important work seems to be funding from philanthropies or foundations, perhaps ideally given to universities for this express purpose.
Really like the script for the call, Simon. I made my calls already this morning to our crap NC senators Tillis and Burr first thing and spoke to actual staffers for the first time in I don't know how long. I rambled a bit without your tight script but I hit the bases. I wish 5 Calls would include your script because it's a great consolidation of all the terrible things in the reconcilliation and why we will continue to fight. I also laid out my fury at the firing of Mike Collins and Maria Langen-Riekhoff at the NIC because the Agency didn't support the trumpian fig leaf about the Veneualan government being locked into MS13. We need to keep watching and reminding our congresspeople that they need to do their jobs.
Simon, I just wanted to say that last night's discussion was one of the best ever. I really appreciate your clear-eyed take on the 2024 election and what we need to do going forward.
I'm writing postcards for Virginia and called my Maryland reps to urge them to defeat the budget and the tariffs.
Hi Simon and friends - the best thing you talked about last night, Simon, was your perspective that the 24 Presidential election was a complete outlier to what came before and what's come after. These wins we've had since the Presidential do feel exactly like the the wins that started in 2018 where we performed better than expected every single time. I value your experience and perspective because sometimes we create a script in our minds that just isn't true - like in this case. We aren't losers - we have a huge winning track record. We lost the Presidency and that's a nightmare but it's not our track record. Thanks for the fresh perspective. Kent
Just listened to this week's The Downballot podcast. Is Georgia a state that would benefit from Hopium-style investment (in the NC or NE manner)? They have a new party leader.
Senator Ossoff is the only DEM Senator up for 2026 re-election in a state 47 won in 2024. I'm hoping Simon considers our group supporting Ossoff. The current governor (who would have been a very tough opponet) is not running against him and MTG is out, it seems. Rep. Buddy Carter suddenly seems to be the front-runner and is proudly spewing his MAGAness and embrace of Trump-- hoping that blows up in his face! But there could be some unknown R who jumps in later.
On a related note, Georgia also has an ancient Congressman who perhaps should retire. David Scott in GA-13) is 79 years old. Incredibly enough, despite being ousted as ranking member of the Agriculture Committee last year over concerns about his health, he has decided to run for reelection in 2026.
A perfect example that David Hogg has a major point. Some of these politicians who are a decade or two past what would otherwise be retirement age really do need to be gently escorted out the door.
(1) Another 1,000-2,000 strong "Trump/Tesla/All That Bad Shit" Takedown this Saturday, the 8th such protest. Several smaller protests, including at Rep. Ciscomani's office (AZ-06), are also happening around town every week.
(2) We've been in contact with Tucson City Council and Pima County Supervisors on passing a resolution condemning the administration, and have provided a proposal.
(3) June 14th, we're organizing a "NO KINGS" caravan of 250-500 vehicles traversing Tucson, and for those not up for driving, lining parts of the route with protestors.
Hello fellow Hopers! Great Wednesday chat - Simon, as always, you help us look up to the stars rather than down into the mud.
My calls today were about the reconciliation bill.
I talked to James at Congresswoman Boebert's office, and I told him how concerned I am about the rural parts of our district. With the cuts to Medicaid in the reconciliation bill, many of the clinics and hospitals in rural Colorado will close, and I'm very worried about families and children losing access to health care. James has argued with me in the past, but this new tactic of talking about children and families seems to be working with him...no arguing this week on my daily calls.
My calls to Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper (a live person today!) - I thanked them and their staffs for everything they are doing, and I asked them to do anything they can to fight the reconciliation bill. Underhanded, overhanded - whatever it takes. I also talked to them about children and families in rural Colorado to remind them that this is what plays well with conservative Coloradans.
Shock! I actually spoke to a person at Sen. Tillis's DC office who assured me that the Senator would not be rubber stamping the bill once it makes its way through the House and that the senator had promised not to reduce Medicaid. Um, okay. But I made my points. I left a message for Sen. Budd and talked to my Democratic congresswoman's rep. I asked that they compile a list of NC rural hospitals and nursing homes that will have to close if the budget is passed as it is written. He got excited, so we'll see if there is any traction there.
JVL on the Bulwark made an interesting point that the mad king does not care about whether or not Dems flip the House since he is not attempting to pass legislation anyway. It sent a shiver down my spine. But the Dems are having a tea party moment and are building up strength at the local level that will be paying off for decades to come. (Bulwark podcast -- it's long but fascinating: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-dictator-erotica)
Now that I've watched the conversation from last night, I see that Simon disagrees with this sentiment. He says Trump cares and will direct the RNC to throw money into these races. So we'll see, but I am choosing to be hopeful and will be working my tail off in NC to flip some of these Republican seats! Western NC is furious at FEMA's abandonment (thanks, DOGE!).
Also congress has the power to put a stop to some of his most egregious actions. Congress can pull back their constitutional right to control tariffs for example.
Please DO NOT GIVE JAKE TAPPER ANY OXYGEN!!!! He is off my list of worthy people. His book is already OLD HAT!!!! Please do not waste any breath talking about his stupid book. Joe Biden screwed us all when he refused to get out of the race. The Dems have the right playbook just crappy messaging - to much talk, not enough angry, not enough energy, not enough oomph. We have many ways to solve issues, we talk about alot of the issues. For the MAGA's it was ONE NASTY RACIST felon, one constant drone of outrageous lies, the more outrageous the better, more lies the better. What does MAGA do well, they lie!!! Their lies never materialize. People vote for his lies. Why not remind them of the lies?
Great work, Simon and all. Go Hopiates! What do folks think about the anti-Biden hysteria related to the Tapper book and CNN all-in coverage? Making Clooney the hero etc? Fair?
Everything about it pisses me off (Biden not stepping down, Tapper writing the book, the media for focusing on this instead of the senile sociopath we are stuck with as a result, etc.), but I say it's better to get the story out there now and let all the windbags do their thing so that by the time store shelves are empty and campaign season for 2026 is starting to roll for real, we can focus on the mad king, democracy, and the plans Democrats have to make things better.
I haven't read it, and honestly, probably won't, but I also saw something (from some legit source/opinion) that stated the book doesn't contain anything new under the sun. It has always been my "take" that Biden had lifelong communication issues which worsened with age, and that normal age-related diminishment was NOT a secret. Furthermore, democracies have a history of being headed by old men - and all that that entails - nothing new there. But Biden surrounded himself with trustworthy people and was accustomed to delegating. Considering the alternative, while I would have preferred he stuck to his guns about being a one-time president, I can't find a reason to beat this horse. He is old, yes, but he doesn't have a malignant, malevolent personality disorder, and that for me is the salient issue.
Unlike Chuck Schumer, my local representative, Jerry Nadler, responded to my recent communication in detail and with meat on the bones. I am breaking it into three parts to accommodate Substack's formatting limitations.
Part I : Thank you for informing me about your concerns about the Trump administration and the havoc he has wreaked on the American people. I appreciate you taking the time to share your views and engage with the democratic process.
Our nation is in the middle of what I believe is its greatest crisis since the Civil War. Donald Trump is not trying to govern. He is trying to consolidate power, crush dissent, and destroy the foundation of our democracy. I will not back down. I will not be intimidated. I will do everything in my power to stop Trump's efforts to dismantle our democracy, strip away our rights, or put billionaires and corporations ahead of the American people.
In Congress, I have continuously condemned the numerous harmful actions by Trump Administration, from the unlawful deportations of individuals living in the United States who are entitled to due process under the Constitution, to cuts to important social services that Americans rely on to live. I am doing all I can to stop these unlawful actions and mitigate the effects on our nation. As a Member of the Judiciary Committee's Immigration Subcommittee, I have blasted Republicans in hearings and on the House floor for their cruel and inhumane policies and called on them to denounce this lawless administration as I have. I also voted against their legislation that tramples on civil rights and denies due process.
Part II:We're seeing the same authoritarian impulse in Trump's attacks on America's universities. He is now threatening to defund institutions like Columbia under the false pretense of fighting antisemitism. In reality, this has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with silencing dissent. If Trump truly cared about combating hate, he wouldn't have gutted the Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights or filled his administration with individuals who have long records of antisemitism. Just as Trump is eroding legal protections for individuals, he is also dismantling the institutions meant to serve and protect the public. He is not doing it alone. After spending nearly $300 million to help elect him, Elon Musk now wields extraordinary power over the federal government. Agencies are being shut down, tens of thousands of civil servants have been fired, and sensitive data, including Social Security records, have been seized. These moves are designed to break the public's trust and disable the government and its services from the inside out.
Part III:I am fighting to protect our institutions, protect our federal workers, and ensure that Americans are getting the benefits and services they deserve. I am also working to stop Congressional Republicans from passing their reconciliation bill that would drastically gut benefits and programs like Medicaid and SNAP that millions of American families rely on in order to give larger tax breaks to corporations and the ultra-wealthy. In New York, Medicaid covers nearly half of all children, 72 percent of nursing home residents, and over half of all births. And yet, nearly every House Republican voted not once but twice for a budget resolution that paves the way for these cuts. This is a five-alarm fire, and I am doing everything in my power to put it out. In addition to fighting back in Congress, I am working closely with legal advocates, civil rights organizations, public interest groups, and our own incredible Attorney General Tish James to fight Trump in court. Over 230 lawsuits have already been filed, and more than 40 court rulings have blocked this administration's illegal actions. I'm proud to also share that I've filed amicus briefs in support of over a dozen of these lawsuits.
Lastly, it is important to recognize that our greatest power in the fight against Trump is you. We stopped Trump in 2017 when Democrats were outnumbered in Congress by an even greater margin and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) seemed inevitable. But the American people mobilized - they flooded town halls, overwhelmed the switchboards, and filled the halls of Congress. Some of the most powerful moments came when disabled Americans in wheelchairs staged a sit-in that brought Congress to a standstill. That's how the ACA was saved. We win when the American people refuse to be silenced.
I am also fighting back against Trump in the streets. I have proudly rallied at Stonewall, in front of the government agencies, and beyond to send a clear message to Trump and Musk: Their agenda of hate, division, and corporate greed will not go unchallenged.
If we can stop Trump's agenda now, we can hold the line until we take back the House in less than two years, and when we do, we will cut his reign of terror in half. We stood up to Trump before. We beat him before. And with your help, we will do it again. So please keep speaking out, keep organizing, and keep showing up.
This fight is far from over-but together, we will resist, and we will prevail.
It's very satisfying to feel, however briefly, that you are not screaming into the void.
(Looking at you, Chuck Schumer!)
The other reason I was so invigorated by this response is that it indicates to me that while our community is generally blue, enough people are engaged anyway, that his office has a substantial response prepared.
Statistical overperformance in election results is a common analysis within political science. Actual performance is measured against factors including historical trends, polling data, and expert predictions. Simon has discussed it extensively, especially how undecided voters and low (political) information voters broke for trump in the final days.
I know you are a mathematician and I am a PhD scientist whose research employed mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of complex systems. I'm saying it's better to receive the message that is being delivered than to get hung up on terminology.
Emily 2 points here 1) no need to be so combative. 2) this terminology is in common use in our business and as Deborah mentions it is also being correctly used as it represents an over performance against the partisan lean or recent performances of these states or districts and conveys electoral strenght or weakness. We don’t talk to voters here we talk to activitists and I work hard to be as precise as I can in all my commentary. In this case I want to say respectfully that I think you are wrong and should work a bit harder to understand the math and logic behind the analysis.
Appreciate Simon’s talk,as I was a bit down. Yes to Ridicule! Ridicule is what wannabe strong men free the most ~~ Ruth Ben Giat.
For years now what has helped me psychologically is that whenever I hear Trump speak, esp putting others down, which is ALl the time I say: talking about yourself again …it sooo helps.
Finally, I agree with Simon about Trump not wanting the job as Pres. I’m toying with the fact that Trump doesn’t like America. To me that puts a clarity on all his actions . He doesn’t like America!
Well, we Americans love America, proud of our Constitution and its rights, protections, founded in decency. He doesn’t like US!
Agreed Mary, I don't think he EVER wanted to be President, even back in 2016. He just wanted to prove he could win and never thought past that. Because all that matters to him is exactly as Simon has often described -- win/lose; weak/strong; huge/small; tough/wimp and yes rich/poor. Not to be a broken record, but those of who grew up in NY always knew this about him -- he's the 3rd grader we couldn't stand in school. And he still is. He was always impressed by the mob in NY. Always loved the tough guy. But he wouldn't have lasted one minute with them because he is a spineless, weak blubbering baby man. He's got that big mouth with that loud NY speak that fools people into sounding tough and powerful when it's all a facade.
Does he hate America? He loves it because it allowed him to become who he is (pre-2016) .... but does he love it the way a true patriot does? Whose immigrants grandparents came to this country looking for a better life? Whose fathers fought in WWII to stop an evil dictator from destroying Europe and the world? The way those of us who still get chills when we view the magnificence of this beautiful city (Washington) rather than degrade and insult it? The way those of us still get chills when we view and salute the American flag? The way those of us who like to be greeted with "Welcome home" when we come back from Europe through Dulles Airport immigration? The way we look out for our neighbors and those less fortunate than we are? NO, he doesn't love this country.
"The notion that democracy finds its strength in its essential goodness and moral improvement over its rival systems is fanciful. Instead, democratic societies flourish because they have a memory of being nearly obliterated by an external enemy. They avoided extinction only through collective action, and the memory of that collective action makes democratic politics easier to conduct in the present..."
--Peter Turchin, historian (as paraphrased by The Atlantic)
It is exhausting.
Can't argue with that, Gina. I try to remember the time I was tasked with putting together a month long educational celebration online in 60 days. Pretty much everyone except a brilliant online community leader named Sheryl Nussbaum-Beach I worked with thought it was going to be a catastrophic failure. It was anything but. In hindsight, we realized the key to success wasn't really much different than climbing any other mountain. Put one foot in front of another and **don't look up** until you find yourself on the peak.
Yeah, I know, a total cliché. I think the problem in this case is that there is so much **** flying at us every day it feels like you're running from mountain to mountain, trying to climb them all at once, but why are we doing that? I remember Simon telling us that when we're talking to undecided people, we should pick one thing we know about and feel passionate about and focus our whole pitch on that. And I wonder why the Democrats aren't doing that in a formal organized way.
Because no matter how many outrages he throws out there, there will always be tens of thousands of people for whom that outrage is personal, more than enough to kick each one right back down his throat, and thanks to online tech and online community-building functionality, it only takes a few dozen people to bring together and organize the rest.
Why isn't there a mechanism set up that allows some subset of us, every time something else happens we OMG over, to say to the rest, "hey, we got this one," with another mechanism set up like Simon's self-reporting for each "outrage community" to be able to report to the community as a whole what they're doing as a group, so people know that "hey, we got this" *means* "we got this."
This is a war, and isn't that how the military would do it? Different companies taking different hills, different battalions taking on different battles that those hills sum up to--energy, the environment, immigration, etc? Sure there are organizations associated with every issue under the sun, and they're part of the solution, but the lifeblood of grassroots self-organizing communities necessary to win a fight like this only seems to flow through a small subset of them. We win at Hopium when we focus. We just need more Hopiums so we know someone else has our flanks covered and is as focused on what we can't as we are. My 2 cents.
Thank you. The OMG feels like it is winning so often, but I have to be a "hey we got this one"er.
And yes, Simon, I will JOIN YOU and this community IN DC! Say when.
NORWAY TO SECURE AMERICAN CLIMATE DATA
The Trump administration has stopped collecting climate data and removed it from websites. Now the government is setting aside money for Norway to secure the data.
The goal is to protect health and climate data in particular, which is largely stored in the US. American research policy has changed very quickly. There is uncertainty about funding, and there is also uncertainty about some of these important data sources, especially in the areas of climate and health.
"There is uncertainty about whether this data will be safeguarded, maintained and made available. We want to ensure that we can safeguard and take responsibility for that," says Minister of Research Sigrun Aasland.
https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/klima/regjeringen-gir-20-millioner-for-sikre-klimadata-fra-usa-1.17410880?_x_tr_sl=no&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(Link to rough English version via Google Translate, my edited summary above.)
Thank goodness some country who gives a damn about climate change will oversee our data.
TRUMP’s WAR ON TRUTH
Trump Cancels Grants to Study Online Misinformation: "The Trump administration has sharply expanded its campaign against experts who track misinformation and other harmful content online, abruptly canceling scores of scientific research grants at universities across the country,” the New York Times reports.
https://politicalwire.com/2025/05/15/trump-cancels-grants-to-study-online-misinformation/
Thought: Given the sorry excuse for what currently passes for American "government", the only way to continue this important work seems to be funding from philanthropies or foundations, perhaps ideally given to universities for this express purpose.
Really like the script for the call, Simon. I made my calls already this morning to our crap NC senators Tillis and Burr first thing and spoke to actual staffers for the first time in I don't know how long. I rambled a bit without your tight script but I hit the bases. I wish 5 Calls would include your script because it's a great consolidation of all the terrible things in the reconcilliation and why we will continue to fight. I also laid out my fury at the firing of Mike Collins and Maria Langen-Riekhoff at the NIC because the Agency didn't support the trumpian fig leaf about the Veneualan government being locked into MS13. We need to keep watching and reminding our congresspeople that they need to do their jobs.
Simon, I just wanted to say that last night's discussion was one of the best ever. I really appreciate your clear-eyed take on the 2024 election and what we need to do going forward.
I'm writing postcards for Virginia and called my Maryland reps to urge them to defeat the budget and the tariffs.
Hi Simon and friends - the best thing you talked about last night, Simon, was your perspective that the 24 Presidential election was a complete outlier to what came before and what's come after. These wins we've had since the Presidential do feel exactly like the the wins that started in 2018 where we performed better than expected every single time. I value your experience and perspective because sometimes we create a script in our minds that just isn't true - like in this case. We aren't losers - we have a huge winning track record. We lost the Presidency and that's a nightmare but it's not our track record. Thanks for the fresh perspective. Kent
Nutcase nominee for surgeon general finished medical school but dropped out of residency.
Just listened to this week's The Downballot podcast. Is Georgia a state that would benefit from Hopium-style investment (in the NC or NE manner)? They have a new party leader.
Senator Ossoff is the only DEM Senator up for 2026 re-election in a state 47 won in 2024. I'm hoping Simon considers our group supporting Ossoff. The current governor (who would have been a very tough opponet) is not running against him and MTG is out, it seems. Rep. Buddy Carter suddenly seems to be the front-runner and is proudly spewing his MAGAness and embrace of Trump-- hoping that blows up in his face! But there could be some unknown R who jumps in later.
On a related note, Georgia also has an ancient Congressman who perhaps should retire. David Scott in GA-13) is 79 years old. Incredibly enough, despite being ousted as ranking member of the Agriculture Committee last year over concerns about his health, he has decided to run for reelection in 2026.
A perfect example that David Hogg has a major point. Some of these politicians who are a decade or two past what would otherwise be retirement age really do need to be gently escorted out the door.
Big things are happening in Tucson.
(1) Another 1,000-2,000 strong "Trump/Tesla/All That Bad Shit" Takedown this Saturday, the 8th such protest. Several smaller protests, including at Rep. Ciscomani's office (AZ-06), are also happening around town every week.
(2) We've been in contact with Tucson City Council and Pima County Supervisors on passing a resolution condemning the administration, and have provided a proposal.
(3) June 14th, we're organizing a "NO KINGS" caravan of 250-500 vehicles traversing Tucson, and for those not up for driving, lining parts of the route with protestors.
Interested in comparing notes for any of these? Contact me at tucsonprotests@proton.me.
This is great!!!
As a former Tucson resident I say great job!
Hello fellow Hopers! Great Wednesday chat - Simon, as always, you help us look up to the stars rather than down into the mud.
My calls today were about the reconciliation bill.
I talked to James at Congresswoman Boebert's office, and I told him how concerned I am about the rural parts of our district. With the cuts to Medicaid in the reconciliation bill, many of the clinics and hospitals in rural Colorado will close, and I'm very worried about families and children losing access to health care. James has argued with me in the past, but this new tactic of talking about children and families seems to be working with him...no arguing this week on my daily calls.
My calls to Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper (a live person today!) - I thanked them and their staffs for everything they are doing, and I asked them to do anything they can to fight the reconciliation bill. Underhanded, overhanded - whatever it takes. I also talked to them about children and families in rural Colorado to remind them that this is what plays well with conservative Coloradans.
I'm a former resident of CO and Boebert used to be my rep. GOOD WORK. Thanks so much. You're an inspiration.
Shock! I actually spoke to a person at Sen. Tillis's DC office who assured me that the Senator would not be rubber stamping the bill once it makes its way through the House and that the senator had promised not to reduce Medicaid. Um, okay. But I made my points. I left a message for Sen. Budd and talked to my Democratic congresswoman's rep. I asked that they compile a list of NC rural hospitals and nursing homes that will have to close if the budget is passed as it is written. He got excited, so we'll see if there is any traction there.
JVL on the Bulwark made an interesting point that the mad king does not care about whether or not Dems flip the House since he is not attempting to pass legislation anyway. It sent a shiver down my spine. But the Dems are having a tea party moment and are building up strength at the local level that will be paying off for decades to come. (Bulwark podcast -- it's long but fascinating: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-dictator-erotica)
Yes, but Congress initiates impeachment.
Now that I've watched the conversation from last night, I see that Simon disagrees with this sentiment. He says Trump cares and will direct the RNC to throw money into these races. So we'll see, but I am choosing to be hopeful and will be working my tail off in NC to flip some of these Republican seats! Western NC is furious at FEMA's abandonment (thanks, DOGE!).
Also congress has the power to put a stop to some of his most egregious actions. Congress can pull back their constitutional right to control tariffs for example.
Not “Congress”. REPUBLICANS. They can join Democrats at any time to put a stop to this.
Please DO NOT GIVE JAKE TAPPER ANY OXYGEN!!!! He is off my list of worthy people. His book is already OLD HAT!!!! Please do not waste any breath talking about his stupid book. Joe Biden screwed us all when he refused to get out of the race. The Dems have the right playbook just crappy messaging - to much talk, not enough angry, not enough energy, not enough oomph. We have many ways to solve issues, we talk about alot of the issues. For the MAGA's it was ONE NASTY RACIST felon, one constant drone of outrageous lies, the more outrageous the better, more lies the better. What does MAGA do well, they lie!!! Their lies never materialize. People vote for his lies. Why not remind them of the lies?
Great work, Simon and all. Go Hopiates! What do folks think about the anti-Biden hysteria related to the Tapper book and CNN all-in coverage? Making Clooney the hero etc? Fair?
Everything about it pisses me off (Biden not stepping down, Tapper writing the book, the media for focusing on this instead of the senile sociopath we are stuck with as a result, etc.), but I say it's better to get the story out there now and let all the windbags do their thing so that by the time store shelves are empty and campaign season for 2026 is starting to roll for real, we can focus on the mad king, democracy, and the plans Democrats have to make things better.
they didn't do this shit to reagan like this when he actually had true dementia and was much younger to boot. they still don't.
I haven't read it, and honestly, probably won't, but I also saw something (from some legit source/opinion) that stated the book doesn't contain anything new under the sun. It has always been my "take" that Biden had lifelong communication issues which worsened with age, and that normal age-related diminishment was NOT a secret. Furthermore, democracies have a history of being headed by old men - and all that that entails - nothing new there. But Biden surrounded himself with trustworthy people and was accustomed to delegating. Considering the alternative, while I would have preferred he stuck to his guns about being a one-time president, I can't find a reason to beat this horse. He is old, yes, but he doesn't have a malignant, malevolent personality disorder, and that for me is the salient issue.
More of this from the DNC please! https://www.thedailybeast.com/dnc-trolls-trump-with-welcome-to-qatar-a-lago-banner-over-mar-a-lago/. Creative, bold, kind of funny.
Unlike Chuck Schumer, my local representative, Jerry Nadler, responded to my recent communication in detail and with meat on the bones. I am breaking it into three parts to accommodate Substack's formatting limitations.
Part I : Thank you for informing me about your concerns about the Trump administration and the havoc he has wreaked on the American people. I appreciate you taking the time to share your views and engage with the democratic process.
Our nation is in the middle of what I believe is its greatest crisis since the Civil War. Donald Trump is not trying to govern. He is trying to consolidate power, crush dissent, and destroy the foundation of our democracy. I will not back down. I will not be intimidated. I will do everything in my power to stop Trump's efforts to dismantle our democracy, strip away our rights, or put billionaires and corporations ahead of the American people.
In Congress, I have continuously condemned the numerous harmful actions by Trump Administration, from the unlawful deportations of individuals living in the United States who are entitled to due process under the Constitution, to cuts to important social services that Americans rely on to live. I am doing all I can to stop these unlawful actions and mitigate the effects on our nation. As a Member of the Judiciary Committee's Immigration Subcommittee, I have blasted Republicans in hearings and on the House floor for their cruel and inhumane policies and called on them to denounce this lawless administration as I have. I also voted against their legislation that tramples on civil rights and denies due process.
Part II:We're seeing the same authoritarian impulse in Trump's attacks on America's universities. He is now threatening to defund institutions like Columbia under the false pretense of fighting antisemitism. In reality, this has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with silencing dissent. If Trump truly cared about combating hate, he wouldn't have gutted the Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights or filled his administration with individuals who have long records of antisemitism. Just as Trump is eroding legal protections for individuals, he is also dismantling the institutions meant to serve and protect the public. He is not doing it alone. After spending nearly $300 million to help elect him, Elon Musk now wields extraordinary power over the federal government. Agencies are being shut down, tens of thousands of civil servants have been fired, and sensitive data, including Social Security records, have been seized. These moves are designed to break the public's trust and disable the government and its services from the inside out.
Part III:I am fighting to protect our institutions, protect our federal workers, and ensure that Americans are getting the benefits and services they deserve. I am also working to stop Congressional Republicans from passing their reconciliation bill that would drastically gut benefits and programs like Medicaid and SNAP that millions of American families rely on in order to give larger tax breaks to corporations and the ultra-wealthy. In New York, Medicaid covers nearly half of all children, 72 percent of nursing home residents, and over half of all births. And yet, nearly every House Republican voted not once but twice for a budget resolution that paves the way for these cuts. This is a five-alarm fire, and I am doing everything in my power to put it out. In addition to fighting back in Congress, I am working closely with legal advocates, civil rights organizations, public interest groups, and our own incredible Attorney General Tish James to fight Trump in court. Over 230 lawsuits have already been filed, and more than 40 court rulings have blocked this administration's illegal actions. I'm proud to also share that I've filed amicus briefs in support of over a dozen of these lawsuits.
Part IV (had to):Part IV
Lastly, it is important to recognize that our greatest power in the fight against Trump is you. We stopped Trump in 2017 when Democrats were outnumbered in Congress by an even greater margin and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) seemed inevitable. But the American people mobilized - they flooded town halls, overwhelmed the switchboards, and filled the halls of Congress. Some of the most powerful moments came when disabled Americans in wheelchairs staged a sit-in that brought Congress to a standstill. That's how the ACA was saved. We win when the American people refuse to be silenced.
I am also fighting back against Trump in the streets. I have proudly rallied at Stonewall, in front of the government agencies, and beyond to send a clear message to Trump and Musk: Their agenda of hate, division, and corporate greed will not go unchallenged.
If we can stop Trump's agenda now, we can hold the line until we take back the House in less than two years, and when we do, we will cut his reign of terror in half. We stood up to Trump before. We beat him before. And with your help, we will do it again. So please keep speaking out, keep organizing, and keep showing up.
This fight is far from over-but together, we will resist, and we will prevail.
Thanks for sharing that, it's a good, thorough reply.
It's very satisfying to feel, however briefly, that you are not screaming into the void.
(Looking at you, Chuck Schumer!)
The other reason I was so invigorated by this response is that it indicates to me that while our community is generally blue, enough people are engaged anyway, that his office has a substantial response prepared.
Well done, Rep. Nadler!