Encouraging Ohio Polling, Manchin's Folly, A Bit of Hopium To Brighten Your Day
David Pepper Joins Us Thursday to Talk Ohio/Welcome new subscribers!
Friends, a few things today:
Toplines: Dems are having a good summer, Biden has gained a bit of ground in the Presidential, the Rs bad summer is about to get a lot worse, and every day there is more evidence that DeSantis is a malevolent extremist.
My Monthly Political Briefing Is Tonight at 8pm EST - I usually open these Hopium-wide briefings with 15-20 minutes of an overview of the current national political landscape and then take your questions for the rest of the hour. RSVP here. A recording will be on the Hopium site and my YouTube channel tomorrow morning for those who can’t make it live.
To prep for the discussion try to review the following from here at Hopium:
Lots to talk about tonight. Look forward to catching up with folks!
Encouraging Polling in Ohio - The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake does a deep dive on the Ohio abortion ballot initiative and Aug 8th special election in today’s Post, and it is something:
The year 2022 put Republicans in a pickle on abortion rights — and nowhere was that clearer than on ballot measures.
First, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving the issue to the states. But then every state in which the issue was put to voters directly wound up supporting abortion rights — and often by large margins. The six states included swing-state Michigan, but also red states Kansas, Kentucky and Montana.
That cued up what may be the biggest ballot-measure battle of 2023 — in Ohio, where Republicans quickly signaled they’d forge a brazen strategy to prevent themselves from joining the other states in enshrining abortion rights in their constitutions.
That strategy appears to be going up in flames.
He then dives into new polling from Suffolk:
We learned last week that Ohioans opposed State Issue 1 — raising the ballot measure threshold, among other restrictions on the process — 57 percent to 26 percent.
Now Suffolk has released numbers on the abortion measure specifically, and the deficit for the GOP is similarly lopsided: Ohioans support the amendment 58 percent to 32 percent.
Those margins in increasingly red Ohio reinforce just how much of a political loser restricting abortion rights appears to be. To wit:
Independents overall support the abortion rights amendment 68 percent to 22 percent. And 85 percent of independent women support it.
Even 32 percent of Republicans support the abortion rights amendment, compared to 57 percent who oppose it.
The poll also suggests the GOP’s scheme to stop the amendment has gone poorly:
Just one-third of those who oppose the abortion rights amendment are also in favor of State Issue 1 — the two positions in line with antiabortion activists — while two-thirds of the amendment’s supporters are against the rules change.
Even Republicans are about evenly divided on State Issue 1, with 38 percent supporting it and 41 percent opposing it.
What this tells us friends is that if we put our heads down, and make our calls and texts, write our postcards, and do our doorknocking, we can win this thing on Aug 8th and again this fall. It’s why I am hosting former Ohio Democratic Party Chair David Pepper this Thursday at 1pm EST for an update and to talk about the best ways to support this vital effort in the home stretch.
This data is also very encouraging for those working on the all-important Florida ballot initiative to roll back Ron DeSantis’ six-week abortion ban. As the Washington Post story reminds us, when abortion comes to the ballot, voters even in very red states are standing up for women’s freedom and repeatedly rejecting the Republican Party’s dangerous extremism.
More on Manchin’s Folly - From a new story by The Hill’s Jared Gans:
Democrats who spoke to The Hill say they ultimately don’t expect Manchin to run for president….
Simon Rosenberg said he would expect Manchin would perform no better than single digits in polls against Trump and Biden, which he said would be considerably lower than how unnamed independents have performed in polls. He tweeted last week that he expects any third-party candidate will receive even less support than they hope based on the “gravity” of the race.
“My guess is absolute ceiling for Manchin or anyone else is like 8-10%. Will be within a few months clear failure, life long embarrassment for whomever goes,” he said in his tweet.
“I think we’re in still early days, and many of these efforts will not come out to anything,” Rosenberg later told The Hill.
On The Power of Being an Information Warrior - Got this note a few days back and thought it would bring a bit of Hopium to all of us today:
Dear Simon,
I was on a Hopium subscriber zoom Thursday at 1:00pm EST and found the discussion just what I needed. I left feeling inspired, optimistic and armed with renewed mission.
Yesterday evening, I put these feelings into action. In a conversation over dinner with two friends, smart informed women who own and run a small retail business in NYC. We had a discussion that began with complaints about Biden not being a good speaker, not being inspiring enough, and a variety of other vague criticisms. Using information that came directly from your Thursday zoom, I was able to see the positive results of sharing truthful, easy to understand and hard to dispute information. My friends have an adjusted perspective and the experience was satisfying for all.
With Appreciation,
Laurie Stricks
Member, Downtown Nasty Women's Social Group & Markers for Democracy
Great job Laurie! Think of the power of a million of us, doing this every day, for the next 16 months. Loud and proud people!
Keep working hard all. We are having a good summer, and need to get it done in Ohio in two weeks, together - Simon
I just want to say that am a Clinical Mental Health Therapist and find that people are exhausted. Action is the best antidote to the anxiety that underlies this exhaustion. We do nothing but take in more and more bad news and it leads to that learned helplessness and exhaustion (which is part of the goal of autocratic movements). We need to send Hopium Chronicles and other Substacks such as Chop Wood Carry Water and others that we find helpful and action oriented and spread the word. I've sent these to everyone in my email contact list and those contacts are subscribing. It is good for their for mental health and the health of our democracy to hear:
1. The economy is good.
2. They can be part of elections all across the country even in "off years" in 2023.
3. They aren't alone - there is an army out there with them.
4. That GOTV works and is the best way to guarantee success in 2024.
I urge everyone to share this information and ask their contacts to do the same. It's a great way to steer those who want the same thing that we do in a direction that gives them hope.
Thanks for sharing the story about Laurie in New York City… It’s easy for us to get too caught up in how to change the minds of independence and soft Republicans… When, in fact, we have the most to gain by simply shoring up the well deserved enthusiasm of our own Democratic base, that doesn’t necessarily understand just how extraordinary of a job President Biden has done. Being an information warrior doesn’t have to mean persuading undecided people all the time, especially in an off election year…it absolutely equally means boosting the morale of our own team heading into the election year. Great post!