Can you clarify your 2-3pt vote margin for DJT? When Hilary earned 2.9 million more votes? Is this specific to the Electoral College swing state vote margins?
If so, another reminder that that relic of our slave-profiteering history needs to go the way of the dodo...
Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 13, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg
On polling and third party candidates and the power of words, and specifically, repetition.
We do ourselves (the Democratic/progressive family writ large) a great disservice by continuing to give so much time, attention and oxygen to THEIR side. What most of us don't understand, or have a hard time internalizing, is that when repeat their talking points, frames, and/or (false) claims—we are only helping to amplify their world view.
Even when we share stories, memes, videos, or posts about them, with the explicit goal of exposing hypocrisy, mocking absurdity, or more generally refuting or negating them, we are ONLY repeating and literally strengthening THEIR arguments for them.
Instead, we (as Simon says) must be proud, and get loud by repeating OUR values, OUR wins, and OUR vision of America. Far too much of our discourse and energy revolves around our opposition. Say what we're FOR...not simply what we are against. It may not be natural for most of us, but if we are to get to 55, it is vital.
We spend way too much time thinking about them, and far too little time promoting our good works. It is something we have to unlearn, and get far more disciplined about.
Dear Simon, I’m a Georgia Democrat working with a Peach Power Pac. We are recruiting Democrats to run against unopposed Republicans and the state house of representatives next year. We call them the fighting 50 because they were 50 unopposed Republicans last cycle I would love to chat with you sometime about how we are doing with our recruiting etc. roberteherndon @Gmail, 470889, 4104
This sounds so interesting, I would love to hear about what you are doing. In NC we had 44 unopposed races. Our NCDP chair is trying hard to fill our races
We have a group called Necessary Trouble. Named after the great John Lewis. We R texting and contacting voters in the district, asking them if they’re interested in running or if they know anybody interested in running we get our lists from the Democratic party who have a list of all the people who have contacted the Democratic Party of Georgia and are interested in volunteering or something else such as contributing, money, etc. We have just started our qualifying deadline is March so far we only have six but we hope we will get all 50. It is very hard but there are people out there who are willing to fight and stand up in red gerrymandered areas. It’s very important that they run, because there is a reverse coattails of fact, if they were somebody on the ballot Dems get more votes versus somebody not on the ballot, please contact me at my email or phone and I can give you more details and information. Turn North Carolina blue.
Howdy from Texas. Blue Action Dems & affiliated grassroots organizations are doing much the same here. Following Stacey’s Abrams playbook and David Pepper’s advice. At the least, it’ll make the Rs spend $ where they usually don’t. Marathon, not a sprint!
Please help us win the Virginia elections occurring THIS November. Help us stop Glenn Youngkin's fleece-vest facism. Go to Postcards4VA.com and sign up to write postcards to Virginia voters.
Ciao from Italy Catherine - Democrats Abroad is working to get our VA members to request their overseas ballots from www.votefromabroad.org if you know anyone living or studying abroad, remind them that they can vote! Our overseas votes can be the margin of victory in tight races!
am I missing something? The New York Times Siena poll surveyed 818 Republicans out of 1329 respondents. Does that affect the outcome or is there something I don’t know about polling?
It is my firm belief that No Labels will draw more from GOP than from Democrats, so I am not worried about them. As for RFK Jr, he is nothing more than a publicity stunt and a distraction. If we keep talking about the great job our President is doing we will eventually break through the noise.
In terms of voter registration, which is the most valuable use of our time right now, here is what I do. I know that every state has its own regulations so people have to adapt accordingly. In Colorado, to formally collect voter information and submit it to SoS, one has to undergo training and register with the state. However, there is no such requirement if you help people register themselves. It is perfectly acceptable to show people the voter registration site and walk them through the process. So I carry in my purse a VR code (actually, several copies). As I am walking around wherever, sometimes people stop to talk to me. I ask them if they are registered to vote. If they say yes, I ask if they have checked to make sure their information is current, and if they are open, we use the VR code to check and if necessary, to update. If they say no and are eligible, I ask if they would like to register themselves. We use the VR code and if they wish, I walk them through the process.
The process I described is kinda fun if you are walking through a college campus or downtown where there are a lot of young people. I have even had sorority women yell at their sorority sisters to come register themselves too, and then I give them a copy of the code to take back to their chapter house. It can also be fun in the grocery store, where the conversation starts with discussing cucumbers and winds up with another voter.
There are so many voter reg groups. I work with YouCanVote in NC. I encourage you to find one near you. YCV is nonpartisan which I like. But find one and get trained, you might enjoy it even more.
Also calling highschools and finding a Social Studies teacher or Guidance person who would advise a voter reg campaign thru thecivicscenter.org who Simon encourages! All you have to do is give the info to the correct person and encourage them & the students to register themselves.
Yeah, groups aren't my thing. It is so much easier to just do stuff than to try to move groups or follow all their rules. Getting trained? I got trained and certified for registration when I ran for office. But the red tape is a real pain. This way is so much easier - you just get out there and do it.
Field Team 6 has data on unregistered, likely Dem voters. We’re going to run a pilot program in my area. Will let y’all know how it goes. Texans can’t register online so we’re going to try inviting to events.
I would be interested in how that goes. I have been an advocate of voting parties since my own campaign, I wonder if voter registration parties would be as effective. You could invite people to bring unregistered, eat, have conversations about elections and how they work and how they are protected, and walk people through the process.
Thanks for your review of 3rd party candidates. On a different topic, after learning of Atty. Gen's. decision to appoint a special prosecutor looking into Hunter Biden, why not have a special prosecutor appointed to look into Jared and Ivanka Kushner?
Although I am a subscriber, I usually read your posts, Simon, and say to myself "uh huh" and move on. I understand that you're focused on the much bigger picture--the one that actually includes all voters, not just the rabid fringes--and I appreciate that. I also appreciate that you're not Chicken Little-ing the situation, a phenomenon I wish was shared by others, who cannot live without some sort of traumatic, "my hair's on fire" mode being operative. I am tired of the drama. And I really appreciated the following: "Like Trump, RFK and No Labels are frauds, lying incessantly about their political intent. RFK claims to be a Democrat but is only talking to Republicans, keeps praising Trump and is clearly running now to be Trump’s VP. As for No Labels, I have been surprised by how fundamentally full of shit this effort has been - there is no middle lane, they can only be spoilers, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are not two sides of a political coin, you can’t be a reform movement if all your funding and processes are hidden from the public." However, I have also learned never to underestimate people's desire not to have to think and their desire to emote without thinking. Most folks seem to like the titillating frisson of fear that all of the doom-gloom nonsense provides. If they didn't find it attractive, media outlets wouldn't provide it. And the more deranged the pronouncements, the better they like it--and the more the media amplify it. There's been one positive development today: The judge in the Washington DC case against the Orange Menace has just warned him not to talk about the charges. Not sure if there are any teeth to the threat but it would be great if an injunction against his speech were to happen. At the very least, it might force his handlers to shut his mouth for him.
I don't think ANY of the Rethuglican or potential third party candidates are legitimately trying to win. I think they are all gunning to be the OM's running mate. Even De Santis, because I suspect he has a fantasy about Trump dropping dead mid-term and then he can take over. I also think that any dream of the Ghastly Oligarchs Party ever returning to some semblance of rationality is stuff and nonsense. Even the Never Trumpers are not known for being honest brokers. They are all the products of Newt Gingrich's win-at-all-costs plan that has been running that particular clown show since the 1990s. The fact that they sound reasonable in comparison to the deranged caterwauling of the current crop of Rethuglican candidates means very little to me. Here's an example: Liz Cheney might indeed be a "patriot" but she is also homophobic, racist, war-mongering, climate change denying, and has Victorian views of why the poor are still with us. Is she someone to celebrate simply because she despises Trump? I find it highly unlikely that she would push even moderate Republicans (if there are any of those left--and I am not talking about the hard-Right folks whose stance on Trump now make them "moderate." I mean REAL moderates) toward the Dems. I do think she might push them toward someone like Manchin. Whose ludicrousness is equalled only by his devotion to the coal industry (and there's now legislation coming up that would actually regulate the silica dust in coal mines in a way that means mining companies would have to pay attention).
Sorry: this is a long post. I agree with you: the best thing all of us can do is fight against the inevitable attempt at voter suppression the Right Wingnut legislatures are going to try to put into place before 2024. We need to encourage younger people to register and to vote. We need to make it existential for them to do so. Media outlets will do nothing to help us because unless some do-gooders start really engaging in ACT UP style tactics of naming and shaming (and not just focusing on Clarence and Ginni Thomas) they won't pay attention to the too-polite attempts to interrupt the current narrative. Unless these guys find it impossible to open their mouths without being ridiculed in outlets other than The Onion and Politico, they will continue to dominate the discourse. And the only thing we as "normal" Americans can do to help that along is to vote and encourage others to do so.
Can you clarify your 2-3pt vote margin for DJT? When Hilary earned 2.9 million more votes? Is this specific to the Electoral College swing state vote margins?
If so, another reminder that that relic of our slave-profiteering history needs to go the way of the dodo...
I cleaned that up a bit to make clear that I meant a 2-3 pt Dem margin.
FYI, I think you have an extra 'than' in sentence below:
"...making many of these states a bit more than Dem than 4 years ago."
Thanks again, Simon. And I'm grateful that you have analyzed the third party probables, and have identified the Never Trumpers as a favorable group.
On polling and third party candidates and the power of words, and specifically, repetition.
We do ourselves (the Democratic/progressive family writ large) a great disservice by continuing to give so much time, attention and oxygen to THEIR side. What most of us don't understand, or have a hard time internalizing, is that when repeat their talking points, frames, and/or (false) claims—we are only helping to amplify their world view.
Even when we share stories, memes, videos, or posts about them, with the explicit goal of exposing hypocrisy, mocking absurdity, or more generally refuting or negating them, we are ONLY repeating and literally strengthening THEIR arguments for them.
Here's just a small bit of the extensive science behind this - https://antoniascatton.com/2014/07/22/lakoff/
Instead, we (as Simon says) must be proud, and get loud by repeating OUR values, OUR wins, and OUR vision of America. Far too much of our discourse and energy revolves around our opposition. Say what we're FOR...not simply what we are against. It may not be natural for most of us, but if we are to get to 55, it is vital.
agree 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We spend way too much time thinking about them, and far too little time promoting our good works. It is something we have to unlearn, and get far more disciplined about.
You nailed it!
Simon--Here’s another factor (albeit somewhat ghoulish) to take into account--the excess Covid deaths of Republicans over Democrats.
Dead on again Simon 🇺🇸
"From your lips, to God's ears."
Dear Simon, I’m a Georgia Democrat working with a Peach Power Pac. We are recruiting Democrats to run against unopposed Republicans and the state house of representatives next year. We call them the fighting 50 because they were 50 unopposed Republicans last cycle I would love to chat with you sometime about how we are doing with our recruiting etc. roberteherndon @Gmail, 470889, 4104
This sounds so interesting, I would love to hear about what you are doing. In NC we had 44 unopposed races. Our NCDP chair is trying hard to fill our races
We have a group called Necessary Trouble. Named after the great John Lewis. We R texting and contacting voters in the district, asking them if they’re interested in running or if they know anybody interested in running we get our lists from the Democratic party who have a list of all the people who have contacted the Democratic Party of Georgia and are interested in volunteering or something else such as contributing, money, etc. We have just started our qualifying deadline is March so far we only have six but we hope we will get all 50. It is very hard but there are people out there who are willing to fight and stand up in red gerrymandered areas. It’s very important that they run, because there is a reverse coattails of fact, if they were somebody on the ballot Dems get more votes versus somebody not on the ballot, please contact me at my email or phone and I can give you more details and information. Turn North Carolina blue.
Howdy from Texas. Blue Action Dems & affiliated grassroots organizations are doing much the same here. Following Stacey’s Abrams playbook and David Pepper’s advice. At the least, it’ll make the Rs spend $ where they usually don’t. Marathon, not a sprint!
Go Texas!! It's hard tedious work but it will make a difference.
Please help us win the Virginia elections occurring THIS November. Help us stop Glenn Youngkin's fleece-vest facism. Go to Postcards4VA.com and sign up to write postcards to Virginia voters.
Ciao from Italy Catherine - Democrats Abroad is working to get our VA members to request their overseas ballots from www.votefromabroad.org if you know anyone living or studying abroad, remind them that they can vote! Our overseas votes can be the margin of victory in tight races!
am I missing something? The New York Times Siena poll surveyed 818 Republicans out of 1329 respondents. Does that affect the outcome or is there something I don’t know about polling?
It was a weighted sample. If you go to the original poll, you can look up the methodology.
It is my firm belief that No Labels will draw more from GOP than from Democrats, so I am not worried about them. As for RFK Jr, he is nothing more than a publicity stunt and a distraction. If we keep talking about the great job our President is doing we will eventually break through the noise.
In terms of voter registration, which is the most valuable use of our time right now, here is what I do. I know that every state has its own regulations so people have to adapt accordingly. In Colorado, to formally collect voter information and submit it to SoS, one has to undergo training and register with the state. However, there is no such requirement if you help people register themselves. It is perfectly acceptable to show people the voter registration site and walk them through the process. So I carry in my purse a VR code (actually, several copies). As I am walking around wherever, sometimes people stop to talk to me. I ask them if they are registered to vote. If they say yes, I ask if they have checked to make sure their information is current, and if they are open, we use the VR code to check and if necessary, to update. If they say no and are eligible, I ask if they would like to register themselves. We use the VR code and if they wish, I walk them through the process.
The process I described is kinda fun if you are walking through a college campus or downtown where there are a lot of young people. I have even had sorority women yell at their sorority sisters to come register themselves too, and then I give them a copy of the code to take back to their chapter house. It can also be fun in the grocery store, where the conversation starts with discussing cucumbers and winds up with another voter.
There are so many voter reg groups. I work with YouCanVote in NC. I encourage you to find one near you. YCV is nonpartisan which I like. But find one and get trained, you might enjoy it even more.
Also calling highschools and finding a Social Studies teacher or Guidance person who would advise a voter reg campaign thru thecivicscenter.org who Simon encourages! All you have to do is give the info to the correct person and encourage them & the students to register themselves.
Thanks for getting out there.
Yeah, groups aren't my thing. It is so much easier to just do stuff than to try to move groups or follow all their rules. Getting trained? I got trained and certified for registration when I ran for office. But the red tape is a real pain. This way is so much easier - you just get out there and do it.
Field Team 6 has data on unregistered, likely Dem voters. We’re going to run a pilot program in my area. Will let y’all know how it goes. Texans can’t register online so we’re going to try inviting to events.
I would be interested in how that goes. I have been an advocate of voting parties since my own campaign, I wonder if voter registration parties would be as effective. You could invite people to bring unregistered, eat, have conversations about elections and how they work and how they are protected, and walk people through the process.
Thanks for your review of 3rd party candidates. On a different topic, after learning of Atty. Gen's. decision to appoint a special prosecutor looking into Hunter Biden, why not have a special prosecutor appointed to look into Jared and Ivanka Kushner?
It's a reasonable question.
Although I am a subscriber, I usually read your posts, Simon, and say to myself "uh huh" and move on. I understand that you're focused on the much bigger picture--the one that actually includes all voters, not just the rabid fringes--and I appreciate that. I also appreciate that you're not Chicken Little-ing the situation, a phenomenon I wish was shared by others, who cannot live without some sort of traumatic, "my hair's on fire" mode being operative. I am tired of the drama. And I really appreciated the following: "Like Trump, RFK and No Labels are frauds, lying incessantly about their political intent. RFK claims to be a Democrat but is only talking to Republicans, keeps praising Trump and is clearly running now to be Trump’s VP. As for No Labels, I have been surprised by how fundamentally full of shit this effort has been - there is no middle lane, they can only be spoilers, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are not two sides of a political coin, you can’t be a reform movement if all your funding and processes are hidden from the public." However, I have also learned never to underestimate people's desire not to have to think and their desire to emote without thinking. Most folks seem to like the titillating frisson of fear that all of the doom-gloom nonsense provides. If they didn't find it attractive, media outlets wouldn't provide it. And the more deranged the pronouncements, the better they like it--and the more the media amplify it. There's been one positive development today: The judge in the Washington DC case against the Orange Menace has just warned him not to talk about the charges. Not sure if there are any teeth to the threat but it would be great if an injunction against his speech were to happen. At the very least, it might force his handlers to shut his mouth for him.
I don't think ANY of the Rethuglican or potential third party candidates are legitimately trying to win. I think they are all gunning to be the OM's running mate. Even De Santis, because I suspect he has a fantasy about Trump dropping dead mid-term and then he can take over. I also think that any dream of the Ghastly Oligarchs Party ever returning to some semblance of rationality is stuff and nonsense. Even the Never Trumpers are not known for being honest brokers. They are all the products of Newt Gingrich's win-at-all-costs plan that has been running that particular clown show since the 1990s. The fact that they sound reasonable in comparison to the deranged caterwauling of the current crop of Rethuglican candidates means very little to me. Here's an example: Liz Cheney might indeed be a "patriot" but she is also homophobic, racist, war-mongering, climate change denying, and has Victorian views of why the poor are still with us. Is she someone to celebrate simply because she despises Trump? I find it highly unlikely that she would push even moderate Republicans (if there are any of those left--and I am not talking about the hard-Right folks whose stance on Trump now make them "moderate." I mean REAL moderates) toward the Dems. I do think she might push them toward someone like Manchin. Whose ludicrousness is equalled only by his devotion to the coal industry (and there's now legislation coming up that would actually regulate the silica dust in coal mines in a way that means mining companies would have to pay attention).
Sorry: this is a long post. I agree with you: the best thing all of us can do is fight against the inevitable attempt at voter suppression the Right Wingnut legislatures are going to try to put into place before 2024. We need to encourage younger people to register and to vote. We need to make it existential for them to do so. Media outlets will do nothing to help us because unless some do-gooders start really engaging in ACT UP style tactics of naming and shaming (and not just focusing on Clarence and Ginni Thomas) they won't pay attention to the too-polite attempts to interrupt the current narrative. Unless these guys find it impossible to open their mouths without being ridiculed in outlets other than The Onion and Politico, they will continue to dominate the discourse. And the only thing we as "normal" Americans can do to help that along is to vote and encourage others to do so.
Signed 20 voters all under 40, at two events in less then 24 hours! Anybody else signing up out there? Hug from NC