Those are my go to 3. Trust those 3 and Simon primarily. Voting Trend on YouTube does some decent analysis too. All in all you can just donate and phone bank to GOTV. Hopefully Tom and Simon's analysis looks great come election day.
Annie, those three are terrific choices! My own daily read always include Simon and Heather Cox Richardson’s "Letters From an American". Depends on exactly what you are looking for. Here are some of my other favorite sources & subscriptions:
Now they know what we were talking about - not to mention DT’s doing oral s** with his mike. Between the reemergence of that tape, his groveling to his mike, his campaign’s flying the plane above a Swift concert (a new meaning to Swiftboating) and his promise to “protect” women no matter whether they like it or not……this is his way of winning the female suburban/rural/urban vote???
Good for you to reach out, and i agree - better the video than tit-for-tat. It sounds as if he’s invested in supporting DT right now and will push against anything you bring up. My older brother is also one of the smartest people i know but is saying he’s voting for DT. Gives me the shudders but i don’t push him any more and think that - given space - he might actually be unable to pull that lever once he’s in there. Not an early voter, happily, because….he lives in Nevada.
Yep. All of what you mentioned is a sign of extreme enthusiasm that seemed like it wasn't there in 2016. Even left leaning indies are fired up, which may be the biggest difference. The enthusiasm is incredible, and it's all because we have a fantastic candidate, and a stellar campaign team. VP Harris made us for her, instead of just against Trump. Let's close the deal, my friends.
This ad legit made me cry. I posted to social media immediately. After 10 years of vehement rancor, stark divisions, and dangerous, ludicrous conspiracy theories, the country desperately needs compassion, joy, truth, and unity!
Greetings from on the ground in Pennsylvania! Got here last night and showed up to the Field office this morning and I cannot tell you how electric things are here! There is so much enthusiasm and energy canvassing. Case in point, I watched one older (maybe early 60s) gentleman walk in after a canvassing one part of the neighborhood, chug a Red Bull, grab more canvassing materials, and walk right back out. You need coffee, food water, a donut? this Field office has you covered! LFG!!!! We’re gonna win!!!
I called somebody in PA from a phone bank yesterday. She told me that she was going to be canvassing for Kamala later that day. Then I called another guy who was a registered Independent. He's going to be poll-watching for the Democrats this year and is voting all Blue (called himself a "white guy for Kamala"). The level of volunteer involvement there is astonishing.
All, it was an amazing day canvassing, there is so much enthusiasm here. I’m going to a quick dinner with some Harris volunteers, grab a cheeseburger. Then get a good nights sleep cause we’re hitting the ground again tomorrow!!!!
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (See TargetEarly for "Modeled Party" & analysis.)
(UPDATE, 12:05pm) Numerous states are over 50% of their total 2020 turnout: Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, South Carolina, Vermont, Utah and Washington. Arizona, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, have surpassed 60%. Meanwhile, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have exceeded 70%, while Georgia is just a hair under 80 of its total vote in the 2020 election.
More than 73.3 million people have already voted, over 39.3 million voting Early In-Person, and more than 33.9 million voting by Mail Ballot.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
Other key states, MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 63.1% 386,015<
VA 44.4% 2,008,586
OH 39.4% 2,353,487<
NE 31.3% 303,116*
*) States that report party registration
<) States updated today.
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
All of Michael McDonald’s data comes from the respective Secretaries of State, and is thus official and reliable.
However, there are none better for analysis of this Early Voting data than TargetEarly! Tom Bonier has invaluable "Modeled Party" numbers for each state and offers other comparisons you won’t find anywhere else.
But Bonier’s top Early-Vote number for each state tends to have a greater lag – hence McDonald’s more up-to-date number. I am only posting the total Early Vote per state and its percentage compared to the 2024 Total Vote.
HOWEVER: For other data and great analysis and comparisons, I refer you to Simon and ask you to go to TargetEarly. In fact, I do so in my very first line!
Texting/Phone banking for Janelle Bynum in Oregon, texting/phone banking for NE-02 and Dan Osborn for NE Senate, gave some dough to Tester in MT. 3 days! DMWL!!!
Yes, we are winning the early vote. That’s clear. The GOP has made gains in the early vote but we are ahead. Every single poll indicates such, some by as much as 15% - 20%.
But total early vote will end up being around 65MM - 70MM, or slightly more than 1/3 of the electorate. That leaves 2/3rds of the vote for E-Day. In places like PA (especially), MI and WI, E-Day vote could easily wipe out any early-vote “firewall” we have in those states if our folks don’t show.
If our voter-outreach efforts are calibrated from 1 to 10 with 10 being the best, let’s do a Spinal Tap and take it to 11 for E-Day!
I have no doubt, not even for one second, that November 5th will be the most productive, energetic, and laser focused day of our incredible incredible ground game so far. And that says something, because the bar is already so high.
Thank you for keeping us updated Simon. I do not understand why the demented convicted felon thinks he can win North Carolina when that absolutely horrible black nazi who thinks some people should be put into slavery, and has made other horrible comments, Mark Robinson, is running for Governor! Here is where VP Harris will be today: Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a campaign rally in Atlanta before traveling to North Carolina to address a crowd in Charlotte. Doesn't she have such amazing energy and fabulous campaign management, probably the best ever!
Good question. Just one observation about President Obama’s reelection in 2012: Mitt Romney got to 47% of the popular vote (47.2 to be precise). I think Trump will fall significantly short of this.
My gut feeling, to borrow Simon’s phrase, is that Kamala will "Get to 55!"
Not only that I think there are quite a few crossover republicans that were Haley voters and true conservatives that have voted early for Harris/Walz. And the Biden race in 2020 was not close! 306 - 232 electoral votes and over 7 million in the popular vote. I think Harris/Walz win will be larger!
I was a lifelong Republican voter until 2016. I did not vote for trump even the first time. I have been voting BLUE since 2016 and became a registered Democrat. There is no going back. The Republican Party as it was when I was young is dead, killed by trump and his MAGA fascist cohorts! I voted for Harris/Walz on 9/24/2024 in Bedford County, VA. I am not going back! Vote BLUE!💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
That data (20+ points D in early voting) is remarkable, and though it's pretty small numbers per poll, it seems to be pretty consistent. it's also really HARD data. In other words, there is no weighting by a pollster, it is what it is.
Those results make sense to me and if you throw in the enthusiasm data and all the personal experiences here, at Harris-Walz rallies, and stories elsewhere, I think a really great election up and down the ballot is what we'll see. I'm excited about that and excited about where we are heading!
I was just looking at a picture from 2017 of our dear friend and her then 3-year-old granddaughter wearing their pussy hats at an Inauguration Day rally.
I suspect that what we are seeing from Trump is mental decompensation (losing the ability to hide/overcome the symptoms of developing dementia) due to stress, worry about the election and his criminality catching up with him, and fatigue. He has always been quite uninhibited in his speech, but I think the overt sexuality and violence, and especially the loss of the ability to do it in a dog-whistle or plausibly-deniable way, is a sign of his diminishing mental competence. He of course has an underlying severe personality disorder of some kind, and he is losing the ability to deploy charm and the clever use of lies and incomprehensible speech to hide the worst of it. I think people are noticing. I love the celebrity endorsements, especially a few who have retracted Trump support. I don't know these folks (Nikky Jam, Sexxy Red)--but that's a good sign they probably have followers outside of my demographic, which is already fully in Kamala's camp.
Everything you say about Donald decompensation seems true to me. In addition, America has fallen in love. We love Kamala. We love Tim. We love the whole team. When 75,000 show up with almost no notice, that's love in bloom. Turn the page. Have a dance party. Move ahead.
I'm feelin' it, Karen!!! and right here on this page, too. THANK YOU, all Hopium!!!! THANK YOU, Simon!! I am not canvassing or calling and I feel bad for that (I did do postcards, but wish I'd done more)..- BUT when I get anxious, I send a little bit more money via Simon's links and his asks and I sooooooo appreciate being in touch with all you GOOD PEOPLE and spending time feeling connected here - Thank you for this morning's video, Simon..... Thank you all you fine hard working people! and sharing your updates and stories and how hard you are hitting this. yes yes to doing more! whatever it is!! Gonna send some more money to Tester and NC Dems RIGHT NOW because YOU all are doing so much!!!!!!! such gratitude to you. carol, santa rosa
I second *all* this!!! I was nervous up until last week but now many of the “conflicted” voters or undecided voters I’ve spoken to seem to have been able to talk themselves in to voting for Harris. I really feel hopeful. There’s something about America that will not let hope die!
I was thinking about Simon’s line of “I’d much rather be us than them”. I know it’s alluding to the fact that we are in a much better place to win this election because Harris is running a better campaign or because she has a higher ceiling or because Dems have more money or better ground game. And I think that’s all true. But even if we had less money or fewer options for winning. Even if there was no way we could win this election, I’d still *much* rather be us than them. Because we are good and because we are right and because we care and do hard things. And because we love this country and care about the welfare of everyone in it. Whatever happens tomorrow, we’ve already won.
In one of trumps speeches he told the crowd that Kamala paid the people to come to the ellipse! He also said she brought all of them there in buses. He is delusional. Meanwhile he left his maga stranded in the desert after the rally at Coachella! He is getting worse! There is no lie he won't tell!
I know so many Harris-Walz supporters are feeling anxious and I can totally understand that, but their anxiety and fear will soon be joy and we'll be turning the page and having a fantastic dance party!
Is it true that a local pole in Iowa has Harris ahead!?! Amazing! I’m on phone banks every day and there are lots of people making calls. We’ve got this! Keep up the work. ❤️🤍💙💙💙💙💙
Everything he says is just projection of his own self…. to me it’s crazy to view Psych 101 play out front and center! I wish I had this visual when I was in undergrad MANY years ago!!! I watched “One Flew Over the Cuckoo Nest”l back in the day….. wait🤔
Nikki Jam is a Reggaeton artist. The first time I heard about him was when he was going to be performing at a Trump rally and Trump thought he was a woman and described him in detail that way. Guy was understandably embarrassed when he took the stage. He’s also from Puerto Rico and I think the MSG rally was a bridge too far.
Spoke to a lot of undecideds and disengaged voters yesterday. That rally was the breaking point for a lot of people. Trump really is his own worst enemy!
My other comment, which I learned about last night, involves election integrity and protection at the polls. The Justice Department to Monitor Polls in 27 States for Compliance with Federal Voting Rights Laws: Included in the list is Harris County, the home of Houston. In Wisconsin the list includes Milwaukee as well as the City of Wausau. Wausau, WI is the city where the maga mayor took out the drop boxes illegally.
I heard just a bit ago on the news that Texas is not allowing the justice dept to send ANYONE to monitor polls or voting in TX. RIDICULOUS - how can they get away with this?
Hey friends. Can you interpret what this sentence means at the top of the Target Early page? "In National, early voters cast 53.9% of the total votes counted in the 2020 general election."
To me, it sounds like the number of votes cast thus far by early voters in 2024 is equal to 53.9% of the total votes (early and on Election Day) in 2020. But that can't be true, because about 63 million people have voted thus far, and 158 million people total voted in 2020, so that's only about 40% of total votes cast in 2020.
So does it mean that early 2024 voters have cast 53.9% of the total EARLY votes cast at this same point in 2020 (3 days before Election Day)?
Yes. You can change the toggle to compare numbers to the same day in the election cycle (-3 days) or final counts -- Final early/mail or Final election.
There are many other toggles such as vote share vs. % turnout
I'm referring to the statement at the top of the National 2024 Early & Absentee Vote Report page. The percentage doesn't change, no matter what toggle you choose.
the numbers by year are EARLY votes cast at the same point in time (3 days before Election Day, etc.). You make your own comparisons between 2024 and the 2020 general election or 2022 midterm. 2024 numbers (for percent democrats) higher than 2020 numbers are what we want to see.
I could dream of that for us! Obviously I'll be happy with anything over 270 but the more the better !
Excellent !
Thank you!
Thank you!
Those are my go to 3. Trust those 3 and Simon primarily. Voting Trend on YouTube does some decent analysis too. All in all you can just donate and phone bank to GOTV. Hopefully Tom and Simon's analysis looks great come election day.
Annie, those three are terrific choices! My own daily read always include Simon and Heather Cox Richardson’s "Letters From an American". Depends on exactly what you are looking for. Here are some of my other favorite sources & subscriptions:
The-Downballot.com (previously DailyKos Elections)
Bolts Magazine: Boltsmag.org
https://nitter.poast.org/Taniel/ (Daniel Nichanian, Editor of Bolts)
Talking Points Memo: talkingpointsmemo.com
https://nitter.poast.org/joshtpm (Josh Marshall, Editor of Talking Points Memo)
https://nitter.poast.org/RonFilipkowski (Editor, MeidasTouch)
https://nitter.poast.org/emptywheel
On Substack: Heather Cox Richardson, Timothy Snyder, Lucid, The Borowitz Report
(Please refresh. I kept adding and revising.)
MI -- Patrick Schuh
@PatrickSchuh
GA -- Data&Politics | Blue Georgia 🏳️🌈
@dataandpolitics
Both are really detailed
Here's a very detailed look at the situation in GA, written two hours ago
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852866077224828980.html
You're welcome :-)
Now they know what we were talking about - not to mention DT’s doing oral s** with his mike. Between the reemergence of that tape, his groveling to his mike, his campaign’s flying the plane above a Swift concert (a new meaning to Swiftboating) and his promise to “protect” women no matter whether they like it or not……this is his way of winning the female suburban/rural/urban vote???
It’s so sad that so many of us have similar stories. Another huge reason to defeat Trump and move on. Such a destructive and divisive figure.
Good for you to reach out, and i agree - better the video than tit-for-tat. It sounds as if he’s invested in supporting DT right now and will push against anything you bring up. My older brother is also one of the smartest people i know but is saying he’s voting for DT. Gives me the shudders but i don’t push him any more and think that - given space - he might actually be unable to pull that lever once he’s in there. Not an early voter, happily, because….he lives in Nevada.
I sent the same video to a nephew. Still waiting for a response.😂
Yep. All of what you mentioned is a sign of extreme enthusiasm that seemed like it wasn't there in 2016. Even left leaning indies are fired up, which may be the biggest difference. The enthusiasm is incredible, and it's all because we have a fantastic candidate, and a stellar campaign team. VP Harris made us for her, instead of just against Trump. Let's close the deal, my friends.
Spectacular. Perfect message. Let's win this thing!
This ad legit made me cry. I posted to social media immediately. After 10 years of vehement rancor, stark divisions, and dangerous, ludicrous conspiracy theories, the country desperately needs compassion, joy, truth, and unity!
Greetings from on the ground in Pennsylvania! Got here last night and showed up to the Field office this morning and I cannot tell you how electric things are here! There is so much enthusiasm and energy canvassing. Case in point, I watched one older (maybe early 60s) gentleman walk in after a canvassing one part of the neighborhood, chug a Red Bull, grab more canvassing materials, and walk right back out. You need coffee, food water, a donut? this Field office has you covered! LFG!!!! We’re gonna win!!!
Where?
Bucks County
Wow! Thanks for this report on the ground.
Love all of this! Thank you for your hard work!
I called somebody in PA from a phone bank yesterday. She told me that she was going to be canvassing for Kamala later that day. Then I called another guy who was a registered Independent. He's going to be poll-watching for the Democrats this year and is voting all Blue (called himself a "white guy for Kamala"). The level of volunteer involvement there is astonishing.
LOVE LOVE LOVE this!!!!!!
As the great Charlie Chaplin once said in The Great Dictator, "in the name of democracy, let us all unite!"
(Incidentally, a great speech that would make for part of a great Hopium Election Day post).
All, it was an amazing day canvassing, there is so much enthusiasm here. I’m going to a quick dinner with some Harris volunteers, grab a cheeseburger. Then get a good nights sleep cause we’re hitting the ground again tomorrow!!!!
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (See TargetEarly for "Modeled Party" & analysis.)
(UPDATE, 12:05pm) Numerous states are over 50% of their total 2020 turnout: Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Maryland, South Carolina, Vermont, Utah and Washington. Arizona, Florida, Montana, New Mexico, have surpassed 60%. Meanwhile, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have exceeded 70%, while Georgia is just a hair under 80 of its total vote in the 2020 election.
More than 73.3 million people have already voted, over 39.3 million voting Early In-Person, and more than 33.9 million voting by Mail Ballot.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
GA 79.7% 4,003,566<
TX 75.7% 8,590,771<
NC 75.3% 4,174,660*<
NV 75.3% 1,059,613<
FL 65.5% 7,301,080*<
AZ 63.8% 2,183,594
MI 46.2% 2,580,006
WI 40.4% 1,338,728
PA 25% 1,739,606<
*) States that report party registration
<) States updated today.
Other key states, MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 63.1% 386,015<
VA 44.4% 2,008,586
OH 39.4% 2,353,487<
NE 31.3% 303,116*
*) States that report party registration
<) States updated today.
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
All of Michael McDonald’s data comes from the respective Secretaries of State, and is thus official and reliable.
However, there are none better for analysis of this Early Voting data than TargetEarly! Tom Bonier has invaluable "Modeled Party" numbers for each state and offers other comparisons you won’t find anywhere else.
But Bonier’s top Early-Vote number for each state tends to have a greater lag – hence McDonald’s more up-to-date number. I am only posting the total Early Vote per state and its percentage compared to the 2024 Total Vote.
HOWEVER: For other data and great analysis and comparisons, I refer you to Simon and ask you to go to TargetEarly. In fact, I do so in my very first line!
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Tom Bonier thinks very highly of Michael McDonald. Not a problem, I think.
FT 6 BYOP is texting into North Carolina.... https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Texting for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell this morning. Ran out of replies so I am going back to FT 6 at 2 pm.
Texting/Phone banking for Janelle Bynum in Oregon, texting/phone banking for NE-02 and Dan Osborn for NE Senate, gave some dough to Tester in MT. 3 days! DMWL!!!
No E-Day letdown. Can’t have it.
Yes, we are winning the early vote. That’s clear. The GOP has made gains in the early vote but we are ahead. Every single poll indicates such, some by as much as 15% - 20%.
But total early vote will end up being around 65MM - 70MM, or slightly more than 1/3 of the electorate. That leaves 2/3rds of the vote for E-Day. In places like PA (especially), MI and WI, E-Day vote could easily wipe out any early-vote “firewall” we have in those states if our folks don’t show.
If our voter-outreach efforts are calibrated from 1 to 10 with 10 being the best, let’s do a Spinal Tap and take it to 11 for E-Day!
I have no doubt, not even for one second, that November 5th will be the most productive, energetic, and laser focused day of our incredible incredible ground game so far. And that says something, because the bar is already so high.
From your lips to god’s ears
Thank you for keeping us updated Simon. I do not understand why the demented convicted felon thinks he can win North Carolina when that absolutely horrible black nazi who thinks some people should be put into slavery, and has made other horrible comments, Mark Robinson, is running for Governor! Here is where VP Harris will be today: Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a campaign rally in Atlanta before traveling to North Carolina to address a crowd in Charlotte. Doesn't she have such amazing energy and fabulous campaign management, probably the best ever!
Simon wrote: "in the various polls of the early vote we are running 20+ points better than Republicans"
The way I read this, combined with far more women (+10%) voting than men, is that now, in this 2024 Presidential Election, we are headed towards...
PINK TSUNAMI – BLUE WAVE!
Simon, with this data, how can it be otherwise?
Good question. Just one observation about President Obama’s reelection in 2012: Mitt Romney got to 47% of the popular vote (47.2 to be precise). I think Trump will fall significantly short of this.
My gut feeling, to borrow Simon’s phrase, is that Kamala will "Get to 55!"
Arctic--I have been afraid to say this out loud, but I have a sneaking suspicion that you could be right.
I'm getting more and more encouraged and optimistic by the data I'm seeing, but we gotta keep the pedal down.
Let's act like we're down 10 and finish strong!
We're winning, but we haven't won yet.
Besides, if we are winning by 1, we want to win by 2.
If we are winning by 3, we want to be winning by 5.
If we are winning by 5, we want to be winning by 10.
If we are winning by 10, we want to win by 20.
That's my logic. No matter what.
Not only that I think there are quite a few crossover republicans that were Haley voters and true conservatives that have voted early for Harris/Walz. And the Biden race in 2020 was not close! 306 - 232 electoral votes and over 7 million in the popular vote. I think Harris/Walz win will be larger!
We have flipped boucoups Trump x 2 voters, many vets. https://rvat.org/
I was a lifelong Republican voter until 2016. I did not vote for trump even the first time. I have been voting BLUE since 2016 and became a registered Democrat. There is no going back. The Republican Party as it was when I was young is dead, killed by trump and his MAGA fascist cohorts! I voted for Harris/Walz on 9/24/2024 in Bedford County, VA. I am not going back! Vote BLUE!💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
🙏🏻💙🩷
That data (20+ points D in early voting) is remarkable, and though it's pretty small numbers per poll, it seems to be pretty consistent. it's also really HARD data. In other words, there is no weighting by a pollster, it is what it is.
Those results make sense to me and if you throw in the enthusiasm data and all the personal experiences here, at Harris-Walz rallies, and stories elsewhere, I think a really great election up and down the ballot is what we'll see. I'm excited about that and excited about where we are heading!
What does pink tsunami mean?
Women voting massively for Kamala Harris. All the polls indicate this.
Thanks. I just didn’t get the pink part. 🎉
Remember the Pink Pussy Hats that were worn during the Women’s March of 2017?
I was just looking at a picture from 2017 of our dear friend and her then 3-year-old granddaughter wearing their pussy hats at an Inauguration Day rally.
I suspect that what we are seeing from Trump is mental decompensation (losing the ability to hide/overcome the symptoms of developing dementia) due to stress, worry about the election and his criminality catching up with him, and fatigue. He has always been quite uninhibited in his speech, but I think the overt sexuality and violence, and especially the loss of the ability to do it in a dog-whistle or plausibly-deniable way, is a sign of his diminishing mental competence. He of course has an underlying severe personality disorder of some kind, and he is losing the ability to deploy charm and the clever use of lies and incomprehensible speech to hide the worst of it. I think people are noticing. I love the celebrity endorsements, especially a few who have retracted Trump support. I don't know these folks (Nikky Jam, Sexxy Red)--but that's a good sign they probably have followers outside of my demographic, which is already fully in Kamala's camp.
Everything you say about Donald decompensation seems true to me. In addition, America has fallen in love. We love Kamala. We love Tim. We love the whole team. When 75,000 show up with almost no notice, that's love in bloom. Turn the page. Have a dance party. Move ahead.
I'm feelin' it, Karen!!! and right here on this page, too. THANK YOU, all Hopium!!!! THANK YOU, Simon!! I am not canvassing or calling and I feel bad for that (I did do postcards, but wish I'd done more)..- BUT when I get anxious, I send a little bit more money via Simon's links and his asks and I sooooooo appreciate being in touch with all you GOOD PEOPLE and spending time feeling connected here - Thank you for this morning's video, Simon..... Thank you all you fine hard working people! and sharing your updates and stories and how hard you are hitting this. yes yes to doing more! whatever it is!! Gonna send some more money to Tester and NC Dems RIGHT NOW because YOU all are doing so much!!!!!!! such gratitude to you. carol, santa rosa
I second *all* this!!! I was nervous up until last week but now many of the “conflicted” voters or undecided voters I’ve spoken to seem to have been able to talk themselves in to voting for Harris. I really feel hopeful. There’s something about America that will not let hope die!
I was thinking about Simon’s line of “I’d much rather be us than them”. I know it’s alluding to the fact that we are in a much better place to win this election because Harris is running a better campaign or because she has a higher ceiling or because Dems have more money or better ground game. And I think that’s all true. But even if we had less money or fewer options for winning. Even if there was no way we could win this election, I’d still *much* rather be us than them. Because we are good and because we are right and because we care and do hard things. And because we love this country and care about the welfare of everyone in it. Whatever happens tomorrow, we’ve already won.
In one of trumps speeches he told the crowd that Kamala paid the people to come to the ellipse! He also said she brought all of them there in buses. He is delusional. Meanwhile he left his maga stranded in the desert after the rally at Coachella! He is getting worse! There is no lie he won't tell!
I totally agree, Karen!
I know so many Harris-Walz supporters are feeling anxious and I can totally understand that, but their anxiety and fear will soon be joy and we'll be turning the page and having a fantastic dance party!
Is it true that a local pole in Iowa has Harris ahead!?! Amazing! I’m on phone banks every day and there are lots of people making calls. We’ve got this! Keep up the work. ❤️🤍💙💙💙💙💙
I know I am. I want this nightmare to end already.
Everything he says is just projection of his own self…. to me it’s crazy to view Psych 101 play out front and center! I wish I had this visual when I was in undergrad MANY years ago!!! I watched “One Flew Over the Cuckoo Nest”l back in the day….. wait🤔
Nikki Jam is a Reggaeton artist. The first time I heard about him was when he was going to be performing at a Trump rally and Trump thought he was a woman and described him in detail that way. Guy was understandably embarrassed when he took the stage. He’s also from Puerto Rico and I think the MSG rally was a bridge too far.
Spoke to a lot of undecideds and disengaged voters yesterday. That rally was the breaking point for a lot of people. Trump really is his own worst enemy!
My other comment, which I learned about last night, involves election integrity and protection at the polls. The Justice Department to Monitor Polls in 27 States for Compliance with Federal Voting Rights Laws: Included in the list is Harris County, the home of Houston. In Wisconsin the list includes Milwaukee as well as the City of Wausau. Wausau, WI is the city where the maga mayor took out the drop boxes illegally.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-monitor-polls-27-states-compliance-federal-voting-rights-laws
I heard just a bit ago on the news that Texas is not allowing the justice dept to send ANYONE to monitor polls or voting in TX. RIDICULOUS - how can they get away with this?
“Hello Mr. Federal Marshal.”
Hey friends. Can you interpret what this sentence means at the top of the Target Early page? "In National, early voters cast 53.9% of the total votes counted in the 2020 general election."
To me, it sounds like the number of votes cast thus far by early voters in 2024 is equal to 53.9% of the total votes (early and on Election Day) in 2020. But that can't be true, because about 63 million people have voted thus far, and 158 million people total voted in 2020, so that's only about 40% of total votes cast in 2020.
So does it mean that early 2024 voters have cast 53.9% of the total EARLY votes cast at this same point in 2020 (3 days before Election Day)?
Yes. You can change the toggle to compare numbers to the same day in the election cycle (-3 days) or final counts -- Final early/mail or Final election.
There are many other toggles such as vote share vs. % turnout
I'm referring to the statement at the top of the National 2024 Early & Absentee Vote Report page. The percentage doesn't change, no matter what toggle you choose.
That's because we don't have the final counts yet. When we do, it will change.
Could you tell me which interpretation (in my original question) is correct? Or if neither, tell me what the sentence means?
the numbers by year are EARLY votes cast at the same point in time (3 days before Election Day, etc.). You make your own comparisons between 2024 and the 2020 general election or 2022 midterm. 2024 numbers (for percent democrats) higher than 2020 numbers are what we want to see.
So we're seeing the opposite of what we want to see -- far fewer early voters this year (only 53.9% of 2020 numbers so far, nationwide).