Really Good Inflation Numbers, Upcoming Events, Roundup of Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Fellow patriots, greetings from the Delaware shore, where I have escaped for a few days of r & r. Will be a lighter week this week, but got a few things for you this good Wednesday morning:
Terrific New Inflation Numbers - This morning we got more encouraging news on the inflation front - the monthly consumer price index rose 0.2% for June, or 2.4% on an annualized basis. Over the past 4 months, it has averaged a 2.1% increase annualized, and over the past 12 months it is now down to 3.0% annualized. This is all within the zone of what the Fed wants to see and means that further interest rate hikes are less likely now. You can find the full BLS report here, and this image comes from our good friends at Meidas Touch:
A few additional notes (links, sources here)
Wages are now clearly outpacing inflation (see below, more on that soon), and Americans are getting ahead. We are, finally, getting to the other side of the shocks of COVID and the Russian attack on Ukraine
Job growth and GDP growth remain strong, a recession is not on the horizon. Our recovery has been better than any other advanced economy in the world
The unemployment rate is near a 50 year low, the deficit is way down, the stock market is on a good run
In recent months both the poverty and uninsured rates hit record lows, worker satisfaction is at all-time high, and new business starts are at historically elevated levels
The President’s far-sighted investments in our future prosperity are already generating remarkable results, and America has once again become a global leader in countering climate change
America is having a good summer. Our economy is strong, inflation has come way down, Putin is stumbling in Russia, the flow to the border has plummeted, murder rates have come way down. Not having a good summer - Republican narratives about the Biden Presidency.
The bottom line - Joe Biden is a good President, his economic plan is working and America is clearly far better off today. Let’s be loud and proud, together, about the progress we are making.
New pods and press - I sat down last week with David Rothkopf of Deep State Radio and Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post for a comprehensive discussion about the current political climate and early thoughts about 2024, How Democrats Cannot Only Win In 2024, But Win Big. Recommend it for anyone looking for a good political pod this week. Last Saturday I was also featured in a national NPR piece on Bidenomics. Check it out.
July Events (link to events page)
Tuesday, July 18th 8pm EST - Hopium Paid Subscriber Political Briefing and Hangout - RSVP (to upgrade to a paid subscriber click on the link below)
Thursday, July 20th 1pm EST - With Democrats Things Get Better, July 2023 - RSVP, Learn More
Tuesday, July 25th 8pm EST - My Monthly Political Briefing and Discussion - RSVP
For those in the DC area I will be doing an in-person talk on Saturday, July 22nd at Network NOVA’s 7th Annual Women's Summit: ALL IN to WIN Virginia - Learn more and RSVP. Going to be a good one!
A roundup of some of our recent areas of focus:
With Dems Things Get Better, Joe Biden Is A Good President
It’s time for a big rethink on how we poll and talk about the economy
On Our Independence Day, A Celebration of FDR’s Four Freedoms Speech
Core Political/Election Analysis
My 2022 Post-Election Memo - This is where I first wrote about our “two elections” take which is so central to everything we do here
Video: Post-Election Briefing with Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier
Still Waiting for the Red Wave: A Recap of our Heralded 2022 Election Analysis
Get to 55, Youth Vote, Other Demographic Work
Getting Louder, Becoming An Info Warrior, The Power of Our Grassroots
Short Video: Our Muscular Grassroots, And The Need to Get Louder, Become Info Warriors
Video: "Getting Louder" w/MeidasTouch, Courier, Resolute Square, DSR Network
The Ugliness of MAGA
Keep working hard all, and enjoy this photo I took from Lewes, Delaware the other night…..Simon
Wow 🤩 At some point people are going to start wondering why the “doom and gloom” people keep getting it so wrong.
“Red wave”? --> best election for the party in power in living memory. Even better considering some of the maps were illegal, racial gerrymanders.
“War on domestic oil”? --> record profits for oil/gas companies and headed toward record domestic oil production.
“Won’t touch settled law”? --> overturns decades of precedent and removing American freedoms.
“Gov. spending makes inflation and recession”? --> the President’s savvy economic agenda has brought down prices for a year now, pushed wages up, corporate profits up, and no recession in sight.
Good job, everyone. Joe Biden is a good president. His focus on the middle-class has made our economy stronger. America is better off, more stable, and happier now than it was 3 years ago. This is what healing looks like, friends. Our vote made this difference. Our voice is powerful. Now let’s keep spreading the good news. 😎🥳
One reason that economists are so optimistic about the future path of inflation is that we know that shelter prices are roughly flat or falling, but because not all rents come up for renegotiation each month, the official indices show shelter prices rising 7.8% over the past year
Headline CPI rose 3.0% over the past year, and rising shelter prices accounted for 2.6% of that rise.
As a result, CPI ex shelter barely rose last year.