Rs Running Really Scared on Abortion, 18 Polls Now w/Biden Leads, Kennedy Is A MAGA Op

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Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

We Had A Very Good Week Last Week - Last week we had another strong jobs report, another encouraging week of polling (see below) and great news on the fundraising/organizational front. 7 months out Joe Biden and the Dems are on the front foot, on offense, doing the work that needs to be done to win. While we have lots of work ahead of us we should feel good about where we are now as we start another week……

Rs Are Running Scared on Abortion, As They Should Be - Congrats everyone. Trump blinked this morning, taking a cowardly path on a disastrous issue for him and the Rs. “Leaving it to the states” is absurd place, for he is still responsible for ending Roe, for stripping the rights and freedoms away from the women of America, for unleashing the escalating assault on reproductive freedom across the country, for sanctioning and green lighting the most extreme abortion bans in the country; and now his allies on the right are going to feel betrayed by him. It is a squirming, “I got no place else to go” position, one that confirms how much trouble MAGA is in right now.

Let’s be very clear that “leaving it to the states” is a more extreme position than a 15 week ban for it sanctions and accepts the most extreme state bans as legitimate without providing an alternative. As Trump is about to find out there is no safe place for Rs on abortion other than a full retreat and a restoration of a woman’s right to choose.

All this reinforces what a political disaster MAGA has become, how the extremism that Trump has unleashed has made his party unmanagable, unpopular, and a stone cold electoral loser. It remains today, as I like to say, the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, and despite his tortured efforts there isn’t any way to put lipstick on this MAGA pig. Today what we saw from Trump wasn’t leadership but cowardice and weakness, for even he has begun to realize how hard it is going to be for him to win with what he has wrought. He’s the captain of a sinking ship.

I also want to give a big shout out to the Hopium community this morning. For while we have worked hard in many elections together over the past year, our biggest and most consequential investment of time and money was in Virginia last fall. Youngkin had put the 15 week abortion ban on the ballot there, and this community understood the stakes and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and logged incredible amounts of volunteer time. On Election Day we did not just kept the state senate there, but we also flipped the Virginia Assembly - something few thought was possible. In the days that followed the Assembly Rs who lost blamed Youngkin and his 15 week ban for their defeat, and a decisive blow was delivered to that fantasy of an escape hatch for the Rs on abortion. There is little question that our big win there helped lead to Trump’s cowardly retreat today, and this ridiculous place of “leaving it to the states” which throws tens of millions of women and their families overboard and green lights the most extreme laws America has seen in generations.

Caitlin Clark, “I’m So Proud” - Like many I’ve been deeply inspired by this remarkable young leader. Listen to this clip after Iowa’s loss to South Carolina yesterday. Felt like I needed a bit of this kind of talk this am:

Kennedy Campaign Admits It’s Working to Defeat Biden, Help Trump - Watch this extraordinary video of Kennedy’s NY State Director admitting that the Kennedy campaign is a MAGA op. More on this in the coming days but for now just watch……

18 Polls Have Biden Up/Other 2024 Election Notes - As I wrote on Saturday, what the polls show right now is Biden and the Dems gaining a bit in what is a close, competitive election. 18 recent national polls have Biden leading: (via 538):

• 51-49 Emerson (likely voters, new)

• 48-45 McLaughlin (likely voters, new)

• 52-48 Marquette

• 47-46 Data For Progress

• 50-48 NPR/Marist

• 42-40 Big Village

• 44-42 Morning Consult

• 48-45 Quinnipiac

• 44-43 Noble Predictive

• 44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)

• 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

• 44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)

• 46-45 Public Policy Research

• 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

• 45-44 Civiqs

• 47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation

• 51-49 Emerson

• 43-42 TIPP

Note that we are starting to see Biden do better and Trump do worse in polls which survey likely voters - people who are paying closer attention. This is consistent with Trump’s underperformance in the GOP primary polls, for when people had to make up their mind earlier this year and actually vote he performed worse than public polling - a more informed electorate is a worse electorate for Trump. This is a big problem for him as the entire electorate is about to become far more informed about him, his extremism, his criminality, his historical awfulness; and it suggests, as we’ve believed would happen, that as we get deeper into the general election things will get better for us (something that appears to be already happening).

A note on the battleground states. We have far less polling in the battlegrounds than nationally, and many of the polls we have are low sample, low quality polls. So let’s take it a little easy on jumping to big conclusions about the states. Yes some have Trump ahead, but there is polling from the last month with Biden ahead too:

• MI - 42%-39% Bullfinch Group (new)

• PA - 50%-45% Susquehanna

• WI - 46%-45% Morning Consult/Bloomberg

And remember Trump was just +1 in GA in the WSJ poll, and only +3 in NC in Marist.

We should be encouraged by what we are seeing right now. We’ve gained a few points in recent weeks, Senate polling remains very solid, we have a cash/organization advantage, the economy is booming, Joe Biden is a good President and they have Trump. We have a long way to go folks but 7 months out I would much rather be us than them.

My Interview With The NYTimes - Here’s a free link. If you haven’t read it yet try to take the time to do so this week. The article has generated a lot of interest, bringing me on MSNBC twice on Thursday and CNN on Friday morning. It has been rewarding to be able to take our optimistic message to many more people. Here’s a clip from my MSNBC interview with Lawrence O’Donnell Thursday night - lots of Hopium in here:

Upcoming Events - Register Today! - Got two events on tap this week, and you can see our full event schedule here. If you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here. Looking forward to seeing folks soon!

• Wed, April 10th, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together - Register here

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• Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects - the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far! More to do!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon