I suspect that behind a lot of the retiring Dems there are good aspiring Dem candidates. My state has a new House Rep (we have only one), so we won't face this in the 2024 elections. But looking to the future, we've got several younger people who are coming up in positions that are giving them the experience and insight. This is something I hear a lot of talk about among Dem organizations, so I would expect the same to be true in other Dem states (and in some of them, I am familiar enough with the political situation that I know this is the case. Remarkable younger Dems sitting in state legislatures or holding offices or positions that will move them forward. Recent elections demonstrate that the Dems are successfully moving people into elective office. We still have to do the hard work to get them there, but there are more states where it looks promising for 2024.
Ignore the polls: there are all kinds of reasons polls aren't trustworthy, and I kind of wonder about the people who claim otherwise, trying to convince us or in some cases, trying to preserve their self-image as prognosticators. All of these polls, regardless of outcomes, are deeply flawed because they cannot measure what they claim to be measuring. In addition, some of them are so flawed that they are close to bogus. Newspaper click bait; right wing propaganda; wishful thinking. Even a well-designed poll can measure ONLY what may or may not be in people's minds RIGHT NOW, and most of the so-called polls are not even close to well designed.
Thanks, Simon. Hillary Clinton's analysis put the Israel/Hamas mess right in the historical context we need to understand what it is. Her clarity puts most "analyst's" references to middle eastern history in the dust. (To think we might have had her as President makes me ache- she proves her mettle again and again.) Tuberville: meh. Wish I knew the answer to how to get him out of the way. I know there are ways, but that would require the FRPs to actually stand up and be counted, and that's the hard part. (FRP: new term I just learned from Georgia Fisanick on her substack View from the Porch. "Former Republican Party". Short and to the point.)
I can't watch Hillary on this or any topic without thinking, "She would have made a really good President." So happy she's out talking about this issue.
I keep telling my family and friends that over the next year we’re going to spend $1 billion telling swing voters what Joe Biden has accomplished on their behalf, and reminding them how awful… Let me repeat, how historically and epically awful Trump and the entire Republican party have become… I fully agree with you, Simon, when you say, “if we can’t beat this group of people, then shame on us.“
Hi - I'm as thrilled as anyone about Tuesday night nationally - but in our upstate NY town, things didn't go so well. Needless to say, abortion was not on the ballot for our local town elections, but a sense of divison, grievance and of "us vs them" was - in the shape of "city elites taking over", making "too many changes" to the way things have "always" been. Even though the money for the proposed projects came from state grants and volunteer work by various town committees. Town spending was also on people's minds, even though discretionary spending other than schools, library, roads, fire and the county account for 97% of the spending. So we need to be mindful of the very local perspectives.
Thank you. I do not tire of hearing the good news as it then becomes more and more ingrained in my brain and gives me confidence to speak out. Working together there is nothing we cannot achieve. It's refreshing to see data, not just off the cuff opinions. Thank you is hardly enough.
Ignore the polls and use the use the media BS to motivate the get out the vote ! We need younger people interested in serving to be mentored and encouraged by the older members. And we need young voters like my soon to be year old grandson to register to vote and be informed about candidates and issues.
It’s their future, they. Just step up. My generation burned our bras, and opened new pathways to women. But the current FRP has taken us back a century and aren’t finished yet.
Two questions, Simon. 1. Is the DNC backing a national voter drive for young people, as you have recommended? 2. Do you have any data on trends in party affiliation among voters? If the Republican party is shrinking, that would be excellent news!
I am interested in registration trends, not turn out. If 75% of registered Republicans support X, but registrations are dropping, that is important to know.
I was feeling great until Manchin’s apparent retirement/no labels announcement video. I am worried about the increasing number of “third party” candidates - Cornel West, RFK, Jill Stein (?) and Joe Manchin? It seems like there are so many that they could easily get up to 5% of the vote in some of the battlegrounds (particularly because there is $ behind these people from the dark side) and this could easily be determative in Trump’s favor (which is why it is happening). I think, and hope, that we need to more than try and increase Joe’s margin by 5 points (although of course we should do that and more!). I think we need to game it like the GOP is gaming it. Right now, we got lucky in that RFK, it looks like, hurts Trump and not Biden. We need to do the same with Manchin - somehow. We can’t just rely on saying “ vote for them is a vote for Trump” as they (and their supporters are nihilists) and because they will be supported by dark money, Putin’s bots and more (Tik Tok?). We should also consider brining more people to the party (Libertarians? ). I hope someone at the DNC is looking at this and there are resources to address. Would appreciate any views of other Hopium members.
So many House Dems retiring. What to make of it? A Dem fundraiser I know is concerned.
I suspect that behind a lot of the retiring Dems there are good aspiring Dem candidates. My state has a new House Rep (we have only one), so we won't face this in the 2024 elections. But looking to the future, we've got several younger people who are coming up in positions that are giving them the experience and insight. This is something I hear a lot of talk about among Dem organizations, so I would expect the same to be true in other Dem states (and in some of them, I am familiar enough with the political situation that I know this is the case. Remarkable younger Dems sitting in state legislatures or holding offices or positions that will move them forward. Recent elections demonstrate that the Dems are successfully moving people into elective office. We still have to do the hard work to get them there, but there are more states where it looks promising for 2024.
Ignore the polls: there are all kinds of reasons polls aren't trustworthy, and I kind of wonder about the people who claim otherwise, trying to convince us or in some cases, trying to preserve their self-image as prognosticators. All of these polls, regardless of outcomes, are deeply flawed because they cannot measure what they claim to be measuring. In addition, some of them are so flawed that they are close to bogus. Newspaper click bait; right wing propaganda; wishful thinking. Even a well-designed poll can measure ONLY what may or may not be in people's minds RIGHT NOW, and most of the so-called polls are not even close to well designed.
Worried about holding the Senate. Joe Manchin is not helping on his way out the door.
We need a pickup. Josh Hawley is the most vulnerable R.
Thanks, Simon. Hillary Clinton's analysis put the Israel/Hamas mess right in the historical context we need to understand what it is. Her clarity puts most "analyst's" references to middle eastern history in the dust. (To think we might have had her as President makes me ache- she proves her mettle again and again.) Tuberville: meh. Wish I knew the answer to how to get him out of the way. I know there are ways, but that would require the FRPs to actually stand up and be counted, and that's the hard part. (FRP: new term I just learned from Georgia Fisanick on her substack View from the Porch. "Former Republican Party". Short and to the point.)
Annie - I JUST wrote the same comment about Hillary. We lost big time in that election.
Sure did. The best argument for ditching the electoral college.
I can't watch Hillary on this or any topic without thinking, "She would have made a really good President." So happy she's out talking about this issue.
Seeing Kamala Harris today in SC filing paperwork for re-election made my heart sing today. Here we go folks!
I keep telling my family and friends that over the next year we’re going to spend $1 billion telling swing voters what Joe Biden has accomplished on their behalf, and reminding them how awful… Let me repeat, how historically and epically awful Trump and the entire Republican party have become… I fully agree with you, Simon, when you say, “if we can’t beat this group of people, then shame on us.“
Game. Fucking. On! #BringIt
So happy about the outcomes for the Democratic candidates and the freedom-leaning ballot issues.
Did the early voting in Virginia go as well as planned?
Hi - I'm as thrilled as anyone about Tuesday night nationally - but in our upstate NY town, things didn't go so well. Needless to say, abortion was not on the ballot for our local town elections, but a sense of divison, grievance and of "us vs them" was - in the shape of "city elites taking over", making "too many changes" to the way things have "always" been. Even though the money for the proposed projects came from state grants and volunteer work by various town committees. Town spending was also on people's minds, even though discretionary spending other than schools, library, roads, fire and the county account for 97% of the spending. So we need to be mindful of the very local perspectives.
Thank you. I do not tire of hearing the good news as it then becomes more and more ingrained in my brain and gives me confidence to speak out. Working together there is nothing we cannot achieve. It's refreshing to see data, not just off the cuff opinions. Thank you is hardly enough.
Thanks for posting Hillary’s remarks. She’s so intelligent and should have been President. That was our loss. Glad she’s speaking out now.
Ignore the polls and use the use the media BS to motivate the get out the vote ! We need younger people interested in serving to be mentored and encouraged by the older members. And we need young voters like my soon to be year old grandson to register to vote and be informed about candidates and issues.
It’s their future, they. Just step up. My generation burned our bras, and opened new pathways to women. But the current FRP has taken us back a century and aren’t finished yet.
Two questions, Simon. 1. Is the DNC backing a national voter drive for young people, as you have recommended? 2. Do you have any data on trends in party affiliation among voters? If the Republican party is shrinking, that would be excellent news!
Did you see Tom Bonior’s tweets about young votes this week? Big, big gender split. Young men are trending GOP while young Women are (more) strongly trending Dem. More complex than I knew. We should still push - of course - but need to be thoughtful about what will happen and how we address. https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1722806672127644137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I am interested in registration trends, not turn out. If 75% of registered Republicans support X, but registrations are dropping, that is important to know.
I was feeling great until Manchin’s apparent retirement/no labels announcement video. I am worried about the increasing number of “third party” candidates - Cornel West, RFK, Jill Stein (?) and Joe Manchin? It seems like there are so many that they could easily get up to 5% of the vote in some of the battlegrounds (particularly because there is $ behind these people from the dark side) and this could easily be determative in Trump’s favor (which is why it is happening). I think, and hope, that we need to more than try and increase Joe’s margin by 5 points (although of course we should do that and more!). I think we need to game it like the GOP is gaming it. Right now, we got lucky in that RFK, it looks like, hurts Trump and not Biden. We need to do the same with Manchin - somehow. We can’t just rely on saying “ vote for them is a vote for Trump” as they (and their supporters are nihilists) and because they will be supported by dark money, Putin’s bots and more (Tik Tok?). We should also consider brining more people to the party (Libertarians? ). I hope someone at the DNC is looking at this and there are resources to address. Would appreciate any views of other Hopium members.
Great post! Please check the FT link (seems also to go to The Atlantic).
Shame on ALL the Senators for allowing this objection rule to exist. It's undemocratic. It's INSANE.
What can be done about Tuberville?