I suspect that behind a lot of the retiring Dems there are good aspiring Dem candidates. My state has a new House Rep (we have only one), so we won't face this in the 2024 elections. But looking to the future, we've got several younger people who are coming up in positions that are giving them the experience and insight. This is something I hear a lot of talk about among Dem organizations, so I would expect the same to be true in other Dem states (and in some of them, I am familiar enough with the political situation that I know this is the case. Remarkable younger Dems sitting in state legislatures or holding offices or positions that will move them forward. Recent elections demonstrate that the Dems are successfully moving people into elective office. We still have to do the hard work to get them there, but there are more states where it looks promising for 2024.
Ignore the polls: there are all kinds of reasons polls aren't trustworthy, and I kind of wonder about the people who claim otherwise, trying to convince us or in some cases, trying to preserve their self-image as prognosticators. All of these polls, regardless of outcomes, are deeply flawed because they cannot measure what they claim to be measuring. In addition, some of them are so flawed that they are close to bogus. Newspaper click bait; right wing propaganda; wishful thinking. Even a well-designed poll can measure ONLY what may or may not be in people's minds RIGHT NOW, and most of the so-called polls are not even close to well designed.
I always thought it was a wrap for Manchin either way. He was not going to beat Justice. I think abortion politics will give us a real potential shot in Florida and Texas. Also, if we only lose WV, it'll be 50-50 and Harris can break ties with a Democratic House again!
Thanks, Simon. Hillary Clinton's analysis put the Israel/Hamas mess right in the historical context we need to understand what it is. Her clarity puts most "analyst's" references to middle eastern history in the dust. (To think we might have had her as President makes me ache- she proves her mettle again and again.) Tuberville: meh. Wish I knew the answer to how to get him out of the way. I know there are ways, but that would require the FRPs to actually stand up and be counted, and that's the hard part. (FRP: new term I just learned from Georgia Fisanick on her substack View from the Porch. "Former Republican Party". Short and to the point.)
I can't watch Hillary on this or any topic without thinking, "She would have made a really good President." So happy she's out talking about this issue.
Here is more good polling news that I do not think received much attention in the news. Public Policy Polling is a Democratic firm that does great work (I have no connection to them at all. I inquired with them about using their services while completing my dissertation but went with a less expensive option). I am on their list serve, and they sent this out this week:
Tuesday’s Results, How We Did, and Those New York Times Polls
Tuesday’s election was a very good one for Democrats across the country and PPP was proud to play a role in a number of the key races across the country- and poll them pretty accurately! Congratulations and thank you to all the Democratic and progressive operatives across the country who made Tuesday’s victories possible, incredible work all around!
-In Ohio voters established a constitutional right to abortion. We polled on this ballot question for three different clients in the last month of the campaign. Our final poll had it passing 55-38 and it passed 57-43 which makes sense because most undecideds move to ‘no’ on ballot questions.
-In Kentucky our incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear got re-elected. We did work on this race over the course of the year both directly for the Governor’s campaign and for the Democratic Governors Association. Our publicly released poll on the contest had Beshear up 49-41 and we noted that most of the voters on the fence were Republicans and it would probably tighten up. He won by 5 points.
-Pennsylvania had an important State Supreme Court race. When we polled it for a client last month we found the Democratic candidate ahead by 8 points at 46-38 and it looks like his final margin of victory will be around 7 points.
There’s been a lot of attention to the New York Times polling last weekend. They have a great poll but the political world should never treat a single poll as the absolute gospel in the way it’s been doing this week.
As you can see above we’ve had a pretty good read on the world of late. And our most recent polls had Joe Biden up 4 in Michigan and Pennsylvania and 3 in Wisconsin, which would be enough to give him a majority in the Electoral College. Unreleased polling we’ve done in other key states recently has generally found a Biden-Trump rematch falling within a point or two of where it finished in 2020- at the end of the day there aren’t many minds to change on that choice!
It’s definitely going to be a close election, probably very similar to 2020 in its dynamics. But don’t let yourself despair that Trump is just going to clobber Biden, that’s not how we see the world and in most key races we’ve been seeing it pretty clearly…
If you’re interested in commissioning battleground state polling…or polling on any other races or issues as we close out 2023 and head into 2024, please e-mail us or call us at 888-866-4950. We pride ourselves on leading the industry in accuracy and affordability and we’d love to work with you.
I keep telling my family and friends that over the next year we’re going to spend $1 billion telling swing voters what Joe Biden has accomplished on their behalf, and reminding them how awful… Let me repeat, how historically and epically awful Trump and the entire Republican party have become… I fully agree with you, Simon, when you say, “if we can’t beat this group of people, then shame on us.“
Hi - I'm as thrilled as anyone about Tuesday night nationally - but in our upstate NY town, things didn't go so well. Needless to say, abortion was not on the ballot for our local town elections, but a sense of divison, grievance and of "us vs them" was - in the shape of "city elites taking over", making "too many changes" to the way things have "always" been. Even though the money for the proposed projects came from state grants and volunteer work by various town committees. Town spending was also on people's minds, even though discretionary spending other than schools, library, roads, fire and the county account for 97% of the spending. So we need to be mindful of the very local perspectives.
Thank you. I do not tire of hearing the good news as it then becomes more and more ingrained in my brain and gives me confidence to speak out. Working together there is nothing we cannot achieve. It's refreshing to see data, not just off the cuff opinions. Thank you is hardly enough.
Ignore the polls and use the use the media BS to motivate the get out the vote ! We need younger people interested in serving to be mentored and encouraged by the older members. And we need young voters like my soon to be year old grandson to register to vote and be informed about candidates and issues.
It’s their future, they. Just step up. My generation burned our bras, and opened new pathways to women. But the current FRP has taken us back a century and aren’t finished yet.
Two questions, Simon. 1. Is the DNC backing a national voter drive for young people, as you have recommended? 2. Do you have any data on trends in party affiliation among voters? If the Republican party is shrinking, that would be excellent news!
I am interested in registration trends, not turn out. If 75% of registered Republicans support X, but registrations are dropping, that is important to know.
I was feeling great until Manchin’s apparent retirement/no labels announcement video. I am worried about the increasing number of “third party” candidates - Cornel West, RFK, Jill Stein (?) and Joe Manchin? It seems like there are so many that they could easily get up to 5% of the vote in some of the battlegrounds (particularly because there is $ behind these people from the dark side) and this could easily be determative in Trump’s favor (which is why it is happening). I think, and hope, that we need to more than try and increase Joe’s margin by 5 points (although of course we should do that and more!). I think we need to game it like the GOP is gaming it. Right now, we got lucky in that RFK, it looks like, hurts Trump and not Biden. We need to do the same with Manchin - somehow. We can’t just rely on saying “ vote for them is a vote for Trump” as they (and their supporters are nihilists) and because they will be supported by dark money, Putin’s bots and more (Tik Tok?). We should also consider brining more people to the party (Libertarians? ). I hope someone at the DNC is looking at this and there are resources to address. Would appreciate any views of other Hopium members.
So many House Dems retiring. What to make of it? A Dem fundraiser I know is concerned.
I suspect that behind a lot of the retiring Dems there are good aspiring Dem candidates. My state has a new House Rep (we have only one), so we won't face this in the 2024 elections. But looking to the future, we've got several younger people who are coming up in positions that are giving them the experience and insight. This is something I hear a lot of talk about among Dem organizations, so I would expect the same to be true in other Dem states (and in some of them, I am familiar enough with the political situation that I know this is the case. Remarkable younger Dems sitting in state legislatures or holding offices or positions that will move them forward. Recent elections demonstrate that the Dems are successfully moving people into elective office. We still have to do the hard work to get them there, but there are more states where it looks promising for 2024.
Ignore the polls: there are all kinds of reasons polls aren't trustworthy, and I kind of wonder about the people who claim otherwise, trying to convince us or in some cases, trying to preserve their self-image as prognosticators. All of these polls, regardless of outcomes, are deeply flawed because they cannot measure what they claim to be measuring. In addition, some of them are so flawed that they are close to bogus. Newspaper click bait; right wing propaganda; wishful thinking. Even a well-designed poll can measure ONLY what may or may not be in people's minds RIGHT NOW, and most of the so-called polls are not even close to well designed.
Worried about holding the Senate. Joe Manchin is not helping on his way out the door.
I always thought it was a wrap for Manchin either way. He was not going to beat Justice. I think abortion politics will give us a real potential shot in Florida and Texas. Also, if we only lose WV, it'll be 50-50 and Harris can break ties with a Democratic House again!
We need a pickup. Josh Hawley is the most vulnerable R.
Thanks, Simon. Hillary Clinton's analysis put the Israel/Hamas mess right in the historical context we need to understand what it is. Her clarity puts most "analyst's" references to middle eastern history in the dust. (To think we might have had her as President makes me ache- she proves her mettle again and again.) Tuberville: meh. Wish I knew the answer to how to get him out of the way. I know there are ways, but that would require the FRPs to actually stand up and be counted, and that's the hard part. (FRP: new term I just learned from Georgia Fisanick on her substack View from the Porch. "Former Republican Party". Short and to the point.)
Annie - I JUST wrote the same comment about Hillary. We lost big time in that election.
Sure did. The best argument for ditching the electoral college.
I can't watch Hillary on this or any topic without thinking, "She would have made a really good President." So happy she's out talking about this issue.
Seeing Kamala Harris today in SC filing paperwork for re-election made my heart sing today. Here we go folks!
Here is more good polling news that I do not think received much attention in the news. Public Policy Polling is a Democratic firm that does great work (I have no connection to them at all. I inquired with them about using their services while completing my dissertation but went with a less expensive option). I am on their list serve, and they sent this out this week:
Tuesday’s Results, How We Did, and Those New York Times Polls
Tuesday’s election was a very good one for Democrats across the country and PPP was proud to play a role in a number of the key races across the country- and poll them pretty accurately! Congratulations and thank you to all the Democratic and progressive operatives across the country who made Tuesday’s victories possible, incredible work all around!
-In Ohio voters established a constitutional right to abortion. We polled on this ballot question for three different clients in the last month of the campaign. Our final poll had it passing 55-38 and it passed 57-43 which makes sense because most undecideds move to ‘no’ on ballot questions.
-In Kentucky our incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear got re-elected. We did work on this race over the course of the year both directly for the Governor’s campaign and for the Democratic Governors Association. Our publicly released poll on the contest had Beshear up 49-41 and we noted that most of the voters on the fence were Republicans and it would probably tighten up. He won by 5 points.
-Pennsylvania had an important State Supreme Court race. When we polled it for a client last month we found the Democratic candidate ahead by 8 points at 46-38 and it looks like his final margin of victory will be around 7 points.
There’s been a lot of attention to the New York Times polling last weekend. They have a great poll but the political world should never treat a single poll as the absolute gospel in the way it’s been doing this week.
As you can see above we’ve had a pretty good read on the world of late. And our most recent polls had Joe Biden up 4 in Michigan and Pennsylvania and 3 in Wisconsin, which would be enough to give him a majority in the Electoral College. Unreleased polling we’ve done in other key states recently has generally found a Biden-Trump rematch falling within a point or two of where it finished in 2020- at the end of the day there aren’t many minds to change on that choice!
It’s definitely going to be a close election, probably very similar to 2020 in its dynamics. But don’t let yourself despair that Trump is just going to clobber Biden, that’s not how we see the world and in most key races we’ve been seeing it pretty clearly…
If you’re interested in commissioning battleground state polling…or polling on any other races or issues as we close out 2023 and head into 2024, please e-mail us or call us at 888-866-4950. We pride ourselves on leading the industry in accuracy and affordability and we’d love to work with you.
Thank you for everything you do-
Tom
I keep telling my family and friends that over the next year we’re going to spend $1 billion telling swing voters what Joe Biden has accomplished on their behalf, and reminding them how awful… Let me repeat, how historically and epically awful Trump and the entire Republican party have become… I fully agree with you, Simon, when you say, “if we can’t beat this group of people, then shame on us.“
Game. Fucking. On! #BringIt
So happy about the outcomes for the Democratic candidates and the freedom-leaning ballot issues.
Did the early voting in Virginia go as well as planned?
Hi - I'm as thrilled as anyone about Tuesday night nationally - but in our upstate NY town, things didn't go so well. Needless to say, abortion was not on the ballot for our local town elections, but a sense of divison, grievance and of "us vs them" was - in the shape of "city elites taking over", making "too many changes" to the way things have "always" been. Even though the money for the proposed projects came from state grants and volunteer work by various town committees. Town spending was also on people's minds, even though discretionary spending other than schools, library, roads, fire and the county account for 97% of the spending. So we need to be mindful of the very local perspectives.
Thank you. I do not tire of hearing the good news as it then becomes more and more ingrained in my brain and gives me confidence to speak out. Working together there is nothing we cannot achieve. It's refreshing to see data, not just off the cuff opinions. Thank you is hardly enough.
Thanks for posting Hillary’s remarks. She’s so intelligent and should have been President. That was our loss. Glad she’s speaking out now.
Ignore the polls and use the use the media BS to motivate the get out the vote ! We need younger people interested in serving to be mentored and encouraged by the older members. And we need young voters like my soon to be year old grandson to register to vote and be informed about candidates and issues.
It’s their future, they. Just step up. My generation burned our bras, and opened new pathways to women. But the current FRP has taken us back a century and aren’t finished yet.
Two questions, Simon. 1. Is the DNC backing a national voter drive for young people, as you have recommended? 2. Do you have any data on trends in party affiliation among voters? If the Republican party is shrinking, that would be excellent news!
Did you see Tom Bonior’s tweets about young votes this week? Big, big gender split. Young men are trending GOP while young Women are (more) strongly trending Dem. More complex than I knew. We should still push - of course - but need to be thoughtful about what will happen and how we address. https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1722806672127644137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I am interested in registration trends, not turn out. If 75% of registered Republicans support X, but registrations are dropping, that is important to know.
I was feeling great until Manchin’s apparent retirement/no labels announcement video. I am worried about the increasing number of “third party” candidates - Cornel West, RFK, Jill Stein (?) and Joe Manchin? It seems like there are so many that they could easily get up to 5% of the vote in some of the battlegrounds (particularly because there is $ behind these people from the dark side) and this could easily be determative in Trump’s favor (which is why it is happening). I think, and hope, that we need to more than try and increase Joe’s margin by 5 points (although of course we should do that and more!). I think we need to game it like the GOP is gaming it. Right now, we got lucky in that RFK, it looks like, hurts Trump and not Biden. We need to do the same with Manchin - somehow. We can’t just rely on saying “ vote for them is a vote for Trump” as they (and their supporters are nihilists) and because they will be supported by dark money, Putin’s bots and more (Tik Tok?). We should also consider brining more people to the party (Libertarians? ). I hope someone at the DNC is looking at this and there are resources to address. Would appreciate any views of other Hopium members.
Great post! Please check the FT link (seems also to go to The Atlantic).
Shame on ALL the Senators for allowing this objection rule to exist. It's undemocratic. It's INSANE.