What's curious to me is that local early voting in Santa Fe seems to be very weak....maybe more are using absentee mail in ballots or folks are not paying attention. I thought that there would be lines and we were the only two voting. However, there is a long list waiting for RESIST signs...that's a good indicator.
It is important for people to remember that these off year local elections will have a fraction of the turnout of a Presidential election. So if you compare activity, lines, volunteers to what you remember last year it will feel like there is less activity, for there is.
Since NM SOS added the permanent absentee/mail ballot option last year, I have been receiving my ballot automatically. It's nice to be able to track the ballot online (mailed, received, etc.) and you can also opt to receive automatic text messages for ballot status.
Simon, thank you for all of that good polling information. Great to see people believe Dems are better for the economy -- because they are!
I can't figure how Republican Congress people plan to run in 2026 when their opponents will all be talking about how Republicans just took months of paid leave in the middle of a crisis. The ads write themselves. Whatever's in those Epstein files must be terrible. It's not getting too much coverage on this side of the Atlantic, but the British press are still calling daily for Prince Andrew's scalp due to revelations about his continued friendship with Epstein.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to thank them for what they've been doing, to say how sick I am about the White House, and to ask them to start making criminal referrals. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.
Giuffre's book I can say, having read a significant fraction now, is horrific. The "Epstein files" are going to be devastating.
Democrats need to do what Republicans have done, which is to go out every day and repeat confidently that they are better for the economy. Say it every day.
But rather than relying on past data that shows it to be true, they need to have concrete plans for how they will empower ordinary people against the billionaire class. This has to include controlling prices and home affordability.
The Republicans are going to crash out, but it doesn't guarantee gains for us (at least not robust, enduring gains) unless our party does a better job of making a case for being the party of the workers, not the billionaires.
Self reporting: Left messages for Senators Cruz and Cornyn regarding destruction of the White House, taking back control of tariffs, and stopping ICE cruelty.
Warning others that there are Social Security phishing emails. I reported it to the SSA IOG if the IOG still exists.
Thank you for the Reagan ad. I just got my certificate of citizenship with Canada (have family there). It’s not too surprising that Trump would throw a fit having to compete with that other actor.
Here's more info about it. "Trump cancels trade negotiations with Canada over anti-tariff ad" (and called it a fake) https://wapo.st/3JdxQBo gift article
It has the original clip of Reagan delivering his talk.
I have it too only most of us were born in Canada and got US citizenship in 2009. My trans child has moved to Canada so she can be safe and she was able to find a job there too. My middle child also got her Canadian citizenship (she was born in TX), as half her work as producer, is on reality tv shows in Canada, so now all 5 of us are dual citizens.
Simon, thank you very much! This is very encouraging data. Do we have any information on the PA State Supreme Court retention measure and the ME Question 1? PA in particular could literally impact the outcome of future elections. I hope PA voters vote to retain the liberal justices overwhelmingly. Otherwise, such a critical swing state could be in jeopardy for the party moving forward.
I have not seen any recent polling in PA. If folks have please share.
Maine is going to be close but the Maine Dems are optimistic and working hard. Our Audacious Expansion Fund has already put $33,000 into Maine and that is helping them fight the ballot initiative.
Simon, here are three current articles detailing the retention vote, each from various angles. While proven difficult throughout history to remove more than one State Supreme Court justice in PA, the GOP knows all too well the advantages they could have should the removal go through, making PA much more difficult for us.
However, I’m also aware Governor Shapiro is very involved with the retention vote throughout the state so hopefully his prowess will help. At heart, I’m optimistic but the money being thrown into it by the GOP is also concerning cuz they are relentless and God willing we match in vigor. Media hasn’t addressed the fact this vote is as crucial as our two gubernatorial races in VA/NJ as well as Prop 50.
Blake, a month ago I saw that the DLCC put in 6 figures to help with the PA elections. Turnout PAC has been doing postcards for it for months, and Activate American joined in last month. My postcard group wrote at least 700 cards and today I mailed them :).
Use the Hopium links in Simon’s daily post here. He is focusing on the candidates and campaigns that can make the biggest impact for the pro-democracy movement right now. Plus he has a donation link that will split equally among all of the Hopium endorsed house candidates, which means you have less clicking to do!
I agree with this, but if there's a race that Simon isn't supporting, go to the candidate's own website. After the Mothership scandal, I am very leery of all PACs that claim to raise money for candidates!
looking forward to that interview; i am glad to see historians getting their due these days, with so many saying the major is not worth investing in any more; i was a history minor and was lucky to study under david levering lewis when he was young before he won the pulitzers. had i been able to make a living i would have stuck with the field, but i didn't want to be an adjunct for the rest of my life. the mikie sherrill numbers are comforting, but not blowout numbers and people remain concerned; i tell them we don't need a blowout, just a win; she will have a democratic state house to work with. not that some south jersey dems won't try to undermine her a little, but that's nj politics. she'll have to show them who's boss right away, as nj has a relatively strong governorship. it's how r governors like christie were able to do so much damage despite a dem statehouse. but i'm getting ahead of myself, first we have to win. my wife will be phone banking in spanish. i will provide coffee and donuts. hey, it's something.....
I was a history major and had the great pleasure to be taught by Christopher Lasch. Blew my mind. It’s history I lean into to calm my nerves-we have always been an imperfect union, but we have prevailed. I believe we will again.
Thanks for your work in NJ. My husband and I will be canvassing again tomorrow. 3rd time and I don’t like to do it. Nothing is certain but the feel in Essex County (thus far) has been pretty good. 🤞
awesome. lewis, by the way, was a sweetheart. i think he is in his 90s now and finished up at nyu. he had a distinct 'mid atlantic ' accent and always sounded like a statesman; though he is noted for his biographies of dubois, he was an expert on british imperialism and talked of burton and speakes like he knew them personally; we learned a lot about the independence movements in africa. bless you for getting out there in essex county; people think of newark and the oranges, but millburn is also part of essex county; how will we do in those swank suburbs? that might be the key.
That's great your wife is phonebanking in Spanish. The phonebank I did Wednesday in CA, had a lot of Spanish speakers who answered -- at least there was a button for "Language barrier - Spanish" and they were supposed to get a call back.
As the government shut down continues, and there is zero progress on a budget process, let alone a budget, Simon yesterday suggested that the GOP is boxed into two untenable options. Either vote to fund the Big Ugly, or backtrack on its worst provisions and compromise with Democrats, admitting over-reach.
But those options are untenable. There is a 3rd option, and I suspect Little Mikey Maga Johnson (LMMJ) and his band of corrupt cowards will take it. Just hide and never govern again. What could go wrong? I'm not joking. They are so lawless now, and so underwater, and so feckless... it's the only realistic option they have: complete irresponsibility and failure.
SeriousIy, let's just remember, that LMMJ was in charge for the 2024-25 budget cycle and NEVER passed a budget, it was all continuing resolutions for the entire year. That means up until October 1 when the government shut down, we were working from the Biden 2023-24 budget as the framework, when Kevin. McCarthy was the Speaker. Let that sink in.
This is a scoop! Someone alert the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times!
I imagine not many people know what their responsibilities are and how they failed. I am more informed than your average bear and I really didn't understand it until Hopium. I hope the DNC/DCCC can tell this story.
I don’t go on Facebook or Twitter. But I do post on Bluesky, especially because it’s likely to be more Mikie voters than Jack. My take is you never know who will see it and whether they will share it with people you don’t know.
I appreciate your commentary and information. I'm wondering if there are concerns about Trump and Republicans attempting to steal the vote. They just don't seem to be too concerned with the polling results, almost like the polls do not matter. Is that because they have other plans for retaining power?
This is wonderful news, and despite the defacing of The People's House, I am heartened and optimistic. I will knock doors tomorrow for Mikie, and am about to hear from our great NJ AG, Matt Platkin, who is appearing on Dr. Ben-Ghiat's weekly call. Will post the link when I have it.
I'm new subscriber and have enjoyed listening to the podcast and analysis.
I have been working on the 11/4 elections - forming a postwriting group and writing to all the states, esp CA for Prop 50.
Simon - I know the focus is all on 11/4 - but TN 07 - even the GOP are nervous. Can Hopium help out Rep Aftyn Behn? A dem flip would send shockwaves. I'd like to see more national coverage and help for her.
I will be making ballot chasing calls in NJ to make sure people with mail-in ballots have voted. We will be calling registered Democrats, so we can promote Mikie Sherrill and down ballot Dems as well! I would suggest that we contact our people in Congress and encourage them to hold press conferences in front of the abomination of the demolished East Wing and to express their outrage. The American people do NOT like him tearing down the People’s House. Make Trump and Republicans own it, Democrats!
Last night I watched Jacob Soboroff, who was filling in for Lawrence O’Donnell. He opened with the image of the demolition, which led to the story of Trump trying to get $230 million from DOJ and Eric Swalwell saying for the last couple of weeks Trump has just been finding new ways to waste taxpayer dollars, and it went on to tariffs and DOGE. That photograph really does make a great master image for Trump’s destruction and I too hope Democrats will exploit its possibilities.
While I understand that no one says no to Trump, it's still shocking to me that no one convinced him that demolishing part of the white house might be a little too on the nose, symbol-wise.
agree w your mother and Catherine's report on Heather Cox Richardson. Wed [iirc] Anchor Watch with Bobby Jones and Sam Osterhout, the two thought the same. Imo the people around T are only concerned with managing him so as to keep him somewhat functional for occasional appearances while they do the smash and grab. As far as symbolism goes, imo the pictures of destruction convey starkly T's boundless rage.
SO glad Canada ran this ad and encourage everyone to view the full clip of Reagan speaking. He speaks with intelligence, knowledge, and genuine caring and guardianship of the American people. The contrast to today could not be starker. Reagan was everything Trump could never be. What is so impossible to believe, but is true-obviously-is that Trump has no understanding of tariffs, no understanding of how the economy is dependent of free trade, no knowledge of important subjects period. Ignorance and stupidity are forged together like steel, which is why he is so dangerous. But he does know how to lie, cheat, and steal--one could even say he is a savant criminal. And with the power of the US presidency, every day is another crime spree for self-enrichment, destruction of our democracy, and feeding his insatiable narcissism. Having to witness this is excruciating, and there are miles to go before we can sleep.
What's curious to me is that local early voting in Santa Fe seems to be very weak....maybe more are using absentee mail in ballots or folks are not paying attention. I thought that there would be lines and we were the only two voting. However, there is a long list waiting for RESIST signs...that's a good indicator.
It is important for people to remember that these off year local elections will have a fraction of the turnout of a Presidential election. So if you compare activity, lines, volunteers to what you remember last year it will feel like there is less activity, for there is.
You can get the vote tally by sending an email to "Curtas, Alex, SOS" Alex.Curtas@sos.nm.gov
It is broken down by number of absentee and in-person votes for each county (Dems and Rs separately) and comes to you on a regular basis.
Alex Curtas, Director of Communications
New Mexico Office of the Secretary of State
325 Don Gaspar, Ste. 300 | Santa Fe, NM 87501
Cell: 505-469-2783 | Desk: 505-827-3613
alex.curtas@sos.nm.gov
Since NM SOS added the permanent absentee/mail ballot option last year, I have been receiving my ballot automatically. It's nice to be able to track the ballot online (mailed, received, etc.) and you can also opt to receive automatic text messages for ballot status.
Thank you for this clear communication and help.
Simon, thank you for all of that good polling information. Great to see people believe Dems are better for the economy -- because they are!
I can't figure how Republican Congress people plan to run in 2026 when their opponents will all be talking about how Republicans just took months of paid leave in the middle of a crisis. The ads write themselves. Whatever's in those Epstein files must be terrible. It's not getting too much coverage on this side of the Atlantic, but the British press are still calling daily for Prince Andrew's scalp due to revelations about his continued friendship with Epstein.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to thank them for what they've been doing, to say how sick I am about the White House, and to ask them to start making criminal referrals. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.
Giuffre's book I can say, having read a significant fraction now, is horrific. The "Epstein files" are going to be devastating.
Democrats need to do what Republicans have done, which is to go out every day and repeat confidently that they are better for the economy. Say it every day.
But rather than relying on past data that shows it to be true, they need to have concrete plans for how they will empower ordinary people against the billionaire class. This has to include controlling prices and home affordability.
The Republicans are going to crash out, but it doesn't guarantee gains for us (at least not robust, enduring gains) unless our party does a better job of making a case for being the party of the workers, not the billionaires.
Self reporting: Left messages for Senators Cruz and Cornyn regarding destruction of the White House, taking back control of tariffs, and stopping ICE cruelty.
Warning others that there are Social Security phishing emails. I reported it to the SSA IOG if the IOG still exists.
Thank you for the Reagan ad. I just got my certificate of citizenship with Canada (have family there). It’s not too surprising that Trump would throw a fit having to compete with that other actor.
Dual citizenship now.
Good for you. I am jealous.
Insanely jealous ! Amazing. Every time I've visited Canada... I further learn how much Canadians rock!
Here's more info about it. "Trump cancels trade negotiations with Canada over anti-tariff ad" (and called it a fake) https://wapo.st/3JdxQBo gift article
It has the original clip of Reagan delivering his talk.
I have it too only most of us were born in Canada and got US citizenship in 2009. My trans child has moved to Canada so she can be safe and she was able to find a job there too. My middle child also got her Canadian citizenship (she was born in TX), as half her work as producer, is on reality tv shows in Canada, so now all 5 of us are dual citizens.
Simon, thank you very much! This is very encouraging data. Do we have any information on the PA State Supreme Court retention measure and the ME Question 1? PA in particular could literally impact the outcome of future elections. I hope PA voters vote to retain the liberal justices overwhelmingly. Otherwise, such a critical swing state could be in jeopardy for the party moving forward.
I have not seen any recent polling in PA. If folks have please share.
Maine is going to be close but the Maine Dems are optimistic and working hard. Our Audacious Expansion Fund has already put $33,000 into Maine and that is helping them fight the ballot initiative.
Simon, here are three current articles detailing the retention vote, each from various angles. While proven difficult throughout history to remove more than one State Supreme Court justice in PA, the GOP knows all too well the advantages they could have should the removal go through, making PA much more difficult for us.
However, I’m also aware Governor Shapiro is very involved with the retention vote throughout the state so hopefully his prowess will help. At heart, I’m optimistic but the money being thrown into it by the GOP is also concerning cuz they are relentless and God willing we match in vigor. Media hasn’t addressed the fact this vote is as crucial as our two gubernatorial races in VA/NJ as well as Prop 50.
https://www.wesa.fm/courts-justice/2025-10-22/pennsylvania-supreme-court-retention-race-explainer
https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2025/10/who-wins-pas-yesno-supreme-court-retention-votes-and-why-john-baer.html
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2025/10/15/pennsylvania-supreme-court-retention-election-poll-abortion-voting-donald-trump/stories/202510150064
Prop 50 I’m feeling optimistic about but I know that will also be a fight til the end 🙏.
Blake, a month ago I saw that the DLCC put in 6 figures to help with the PA elections. Turnout PAC has been doing postcards for it for months, and Activate American joined in last month. My postcard group wrote at least 700 cards and today I mailed them :).
Thank you so much! Let’s go!!!
I get asks from just about every democratic candidate. Which is the link for donations that is most beneficial?
Use the Hopium links in Simon’s daily post here. He is focusing on the candidates and campaigns that can make the biggest impact for the pro-democracy movement right now. Plus he has a donation link that will split equally among all of the Hopium endorsed house candidates, which means you have less clicking to do!
I agree with this, but if there's a race that Simon isn't supporting, go to the candidate's own website. After the Mothership scandal, I am very leery of all PACs that claim to raise money for candidates!
looking forward to that interview; i am glad to see historians getting their due these days, with so many saying the major is not worth investing in any more; i was a history minor and was lucky to study under david levering lewis when he was young before he won the pulitzers. had i been able to make a living i would have stuck with the field, but i didn't want to be an adjunct for the rest of my life. the mikie sherrill numbers are comforting, but not blowout numbers and people remain concerned; i tell them we don't need a blowout, just a win; she will have a democratic state house to work with. not that some south jersey dems won't try to undermine her a little, but that's nj politics. she'll have to show them who's boss right away, as nj has a relatively strong governorship. it's how r governors like christie were able to do so much damage despite a dem statehouse. but i'm getting ahead of myself, first we have to win. my wife will be phone banking in spanish. i will provide coffee and donuts. hey, it's something.....
takes a village!
Thank you!
I was a history major and had the great pleasure to be taught by Christopher Lasch. Blew my mind. It’s history I lean into to calm my nerves-we have always been an imperfect union, but we have prevailed. I believe we will again.
Thanks for your work in NJ. My husband and I will be canvassing again tomorrow. 3rd time and I don’t like to do it. Nothing is certain but the feel in Essex County (thus far) has been pretty good. 🤞
awesome. lewis, by the way, was a sweetheart. i think he is in his 90s now and finished up at nyu. he had a distinct 'mid atlantic ' accent and always sounded like a statesman; though he is noted for his biographies of dubois, he was an expert on british imperialism and talked of burton and speakes like he knew them personally; we learned a lot about the independence movements in africa. bless you for getting out there in essex county; people think of newark and the oranges, but millburn is also part of essex county; how will we do in those swank suburbs? that might be the key.
thanks, I'm canvassing tomorrow and Sunday!
That's great your wife is phonebanking in Spanish. The phonebank I did Wednesday in CA, had a lot of Spanish speakers who answered -- at least there was a button for "Language barrier - Spanish" and they were supposed to get a call back.
Trump damages everything he touches, including the White House and the economy…
You are correct
Everything he touches dies
As the government shut down continues, and there is zero progress on a budget process, let alone a budget, Simon yesterday suggested that the GOP is boxed into two untenable options. Either vote to fund the Big Ugly, or backtrack on its worst provisions and compromise with Democrats, admitting over-reach.
But those options are untenable. There is a 3rd option, and I suspect Little Mikey Maga Johnson (LMMJ) and his band of corrupt cowards will take it. Just hide and never govern again. What could go wrong? I'm not joking. They are so lawless now, and so underwater, and so feckless... it's the only realistic option they have: complete irresponsibility and failure.
SeriousIy, let's just remember, that LMMJ was in charge for the 2024-25 budget cycle and NEVER passed a budget, it was all continuing resolutions for the entire year. That means up until October 1 when the government shut down, we were working from the Biden 2023-24 budget as the framework, when Kevin. McCarthy was the Speaker. Let that sink in.
This is a scoop! Someone alert the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times!
I imagine not many people know what their responsibilities are and how they failed. I am more informed than your average bear and I really didn't understand it until Hopium. I hope the DNC/DCCC can tell this story.
Every comment I make on social media now includes the following:
Early Voting in NJ: 10/25-11/2.
Election Day Voting: 11/4
Information available at Vote.NJ.gov and mikiesherrill.com
Please join me!! You never know who has a friend of a friend!!!
I posted about early voting twice (by mistake, lol) on Facebook. That’s pretty much it for me. Not sure if it’s worth posting on Bluesky?
I don’t go on Facebook or Twitter. But I do post on Bluesky, especially because it’s likely to be more Mikie voters than Jack. My take is you never know who will see it and whether they will share it with people you don’t know.
I appreciate your commentary and information. I'm wondering if there are concerns about Trump and Republicans attempting to steal the vote. They just don't seem to be too concerned with the polling results, almost like the polls do not matter. Is that because they have other plans for retaining power?
Go Virginia go. Redistrict!
One of Garrett Graff's reasons for hope was one of my signs at No Kings:
THERE ARE MORE OF US THAN THERE ARE OF THEM.
This is wonderful news, and despite the defacing of The People's House, I am heartened and optimistic. I will knock doors tomorrow for Mikie, and am about to hear from our great NJ AG, Matt Platkin, who is appearing on Dr. Ben-Ghiat's weekly call. Will post the link when I have it.
Keep going!
i am a huge fan of dr ben ghiat; to me she is up there with timothy snyder, jason stanley, anne applebaum and heather cox richardson.
I'm new subscriber and have enjoyed listening to the podcast and analysis.
I have been working on the 11/4 elections - forming a postwriting group and writing to all the states, esp CA for Prop 50.
Simon - I know the focus is all on 11/4 - but TN 07 - even the GOP are nervous. Can Hopium help out Rep Aftyn Behn? A dem flip would send shockwaves. I'd like to see more national coverage and help for her.
I will be making ballot chasing calls in NJ to make sure people with mail-in ballots have voted. We will be calling registered Democrats, so we can promote Mikie Sherrill and down ballot Dems as well! I would suggest that we contact our people in Congress and encourage them to hold press conferences in front of the abomination of the demolished East Wing and to express their outrage. The American people do NOT like him tearing down the People’s House. Make Trump and Republicans own it, Democrats!
Last night I watched Jacob Soboroff, who was filling in for Lawrence O’Donnell. He opened with the image of the demolition, which led to the story of Trump trying to get $230 million from DOJ and Eric Swalwell saying for the last couple of weeks Trump has just been finding new ways to waste taxpayer dollars, and it went on to tariffs and DOGE. That photograph really does make a great master image for Trump’s destruction and I too hope Democrats will exploit its possibilities.
While I understand that no one says no to Trump, it's still shocking to me that no one convinced him that demolishing part of the white house might be a little too on the nose, symbol-wise.
Heather Cox Richardson has suggested that the narcissistic injury of No Kings Day drove him to do it immediately.
my psychologist mother said the same. : )
That makes total sense. The first insight that has.
agree w your mother and Catherine's report on Heather Cox Richardson. Wed [iirc] Anchor Watch with Bobby Jones and Sam Osterhout, the two thought the same. Imo the people around T are only concerned with managing him so as to keep him somewhat functional for occasional appearances while they do the smash and grab. As far as symbolism goes, imo the pictures of destruction convey starkly T's boundless rage.
SO glad Canada ran this ad and encourage everyone to view the full clip of Reagan speaking. He speaks with intelligence, knowledge, and genuine caring and guardianship of the American people. The contrast to today could not be starker. Reagan was everything Trump could never be. What is so impossible to believe, but is true-obviously-is that Trump has no understanding of tariffs, no understanding of how the economy is dependent of free trade, no knowledge of important subjects period. Ignorance and stupidity are forged together like steel, which is why he is so dangerous. But he does know how to lie, cheat, and steal--one could even say he is a savant criminal. And with the power of the US presidency, every day is another crime spree for self-enrichment, destruction of our democracy, and feeding his insatiable narcissism. Having to witness this is excruciating, and there are miles to go before we can sleep.