Sherrill And Spanberger Have Sturdy Leads, Ds Now More Trusted On The Economy, Voters Backing Ds On Health Care Fight, Let's Close Strong Everyone!

Going live with journalist and historian Garrett Graff today at 215pm ET - join us!

Morning all. We have elections to go win all across the country in the next 10 days. Please make sure you are donating, volunteering, voting early and leaving it all out there on the playing field for this great country of ours. Winning these Novembers elections is Job 1 now. See links below for how you can contribute to and volunteer for our recommended races or dive into elections into your community. Whatever you choose to do in these critical closing days do as much as you can…….

The DNC’s grassroots Substack, The Blue Print, has a good article today on their national calling program called the Call Crew. Joining the Call Crew is another good way to help us close strong in these critical final days of the 2025 Elections.

The Washington Post dropped a new Virginia poll late yesterday that is very much in line with other public polling we’ve seen:

Lt. Gov candidate Ghazala Hashmi leads 51%-44% (+7) and the race for Attorney General between Democrat Jay Jones and Republican Jason Miyares is tied 46%-46%. While Spanberger has a strong lead in these closing days Jay Jones is going to need a strong Dem tide to win. So heads down all - keep working hard.

A reminder of the latest polls out of New Jersey. There is no public independent poll showing Ciattarelli over 45%. These polls are encouraging but we need to keep working it everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Sherrill 50% Ciattarelli 45% (+5) Rutgers/Eagleton

• Sherrill 52% Ciattarelli 45% (+7) FDU

• Sherrill 50% Ciattarelli 45% (+5) Fox News

• Sherrill 51% Ciattarelli 44% (+7) Quinnipiac

The Senate Majority PAC released a new poll on the state of the shutdown and budget fight. Here’s their summary - Americans Continue to Back Democrats’ Fight for Affordable Healthcare Against Republican Shutdown

Nearly one month into the Republican-driven government shutdown, Americans overwhelmingly support congressional Democrats’ efforts to extend tax credits that ensure families can access affordable health care, even if it means a prolonged shutdown, new polling from Senate Majority PAC and Hart Research found.

The majority of voters are also giving Donald Trump low marks for his handling of the shutdown. Just 36% approve of his performance, while 55% disapprove, including 60% of voters in the center of the electorate. An overwhelming 82% of voters say Trump should be willing to negotiate with Democrats to reach a bipartisan deal — a sentiment that crosses party lines, with two-thirds of rank-and-file Republicans agreeing Trump should come to the table.

Mirroring weeks of both private and independent polling, Americans blame Trump and Republicans for the government shutdown – now in its 24th day. According to the survey, 52% of voters say Trump and Republicans are more to blame for the shutdown, compared to just 41% who blame Democrats. Among voters in the political center—those who are neither strong partisans nor ideological extremes and represent nearly half of the electorate—Trump and Republicans are blamed more by a 17-point margin.

“Americans are breaking decisively against Trump and Republicans on this shutdown,” said Senate Majority PAC Spokesperson Lauren French. “They see Democrats as the only adults in the room trying to protect families from higher health costs while Republicans and Trump are nowhere to be found.”

The poll also found that health care remains a defining issue for voters. A staggering 80% of voters say that preventing big increases in health insurance costs for those who get coverage through the Affordable Care Act should be an important priority in resolving the shutdown, including 55% who say it’s essential.

The Hart Research poll surveyed 1,221 voters between October 17-19 who say they will or might cast ballots in next year’s midterm elections. Read the full memo.

As I explained in my video and written analysis yesterday we just keep seeing evidence that a weakened and unpopular Trump can no longer rally the country or even his own voters around his major priorities and arguments. Here, in this poll, Trump gets only a 36% approval on his handling of the shutdown which means 30% of his own voters do not approve of what he is doing right now. This data is similar to where he stands on inflation, jobs and the economy, health care and other critical issues. People just ain’t buy what he’s selling.

Over at Strength In Numbers G. Elliott Morris has published a new analysis - Polls show voters now trust Democrats more to handle the economy - that confirms how much the political landscape has changed since last November, . It’s a good read, and has this powerful and encouraging graph from Gallup:

A new AP-NORC poll of Hispanic voters also confirms how much the political landscape has changed since last year:

President Donald Trump’s favorability has fallen among Hispanic adults since the beginning of the year, a new AP-NORC poll shows, a potential warning sign from a key constituency that helped secure his victory in the 2024 election.

The October survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 25% of Hispanic adults have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of Trump, down from 44% in an AP-NORC poll conducted just before the Republican took office for the second time. The percentage of Hispanic adults who say the country is going in the wrong direction has also increased slightly over the past few months, from 63% in March to 73% now.

The shift could spell trouble for Republicans looking to cement support with this group in future elections. Many Hispanic voters were motivated by economic concerns in last year’s election, and the new poll shows that despite Trump’s promises of economic revitalization, Hispanic adults continue to feel higher financial stress than Americans overall. Hispanic voters made up 10% of the electorate in 2024, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of interviews with registered voters, and the number of eligible Hispanic voters has been growing rapidly in recent decades.

This AP-NORC data is consistent with the Economist/YouGov data we look at each week:

Late yesterday Virginia Democrats announced a special legislative session that begins Monday to kick off a process to redistrict Virginia and give Democrats 2-3 more House seats. Hell yeah baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At 215pm ET this afternoon I will be going live with historian and journalist Garrett Graff, an old friend. I’ve asked Garrett to drop by and discuss his new essay, Three Reasons I Still Have Hope For America, where he begins by reflecting on the millions who turned out for No Kings:

To me — as someone who cares deeply about the future of American democracy — the rallies stand as an important expression of love for the United States and the idea and dream that the US has represented for 250 years.

I’ve written over the last three months about how the United States has tipped into authoritarianism — we’ve crossed an invisible line never crossed before in our history — but that slide is not necessarily permanent nor irreversible, and I hope that this weekend’s “No Kings” protests will someday be looked back upon as a turning point when the public anger’s and resistance to fascism began to boil.

He then offers his 3 reasons for why, despite it all, he is hopeful:

1. People — There are more of us than there are of them

2. History — America’s progress has always been imperfect

3. Actuarial — Trump won’t last forever, which means “Trumpism” will fall

Come join us at 215pm ET for what will be a great discussion with one of the sharpest commentators out there today. Click on this link just before 215pm and if you can’t make it live we will be releasing a recording of our discussion here either later today or tomorrow morning. A reminder that you can find all of our interviews and podcasts, including new ones with Reps. Adelita Grijalva and Janelle Bynum, under the Podcast tab on the Hopium site and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify too.

We got word this morning that the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3 percent in September, an annualized rate of almost 4%. Most reporting is playing it as this Washington Post story is - Consumer prices in September rise to a pace not seen since January (gift link). The bottom line - inflation remains too high and the tariffs need to go.

Perhaps related to this not good inflation data the big blubbery baby man living in and tearing down the White House angrily cut off trade talks with Canada after having seen this anti-tariff ad on his teevee:

For those who want to watch or listen to the entire 5 minute Reagan radio address this clip was taken from you can find it here. Reagan makes a very, very compelling case against tariffs, and one can understand why our ridiculous leader got his panties all in a bunch this morning.

Now….

Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $121k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $217k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $46k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $86k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $222k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $168,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart, Maine Chair Charlie Dingman, and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA or wherever you have elections on November 4th - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

2. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities

3. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

4. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so - Simon