Morning all. Hopium paid subscribers got together last night for our weekly gathering. As usual it was a lively affair. A video recording and transcript are above. Some notes from my talk and our discussion last night……
Congressional Democrats have been wise to force the nation’s attention to the harms Trump and Republicans are doing to the American people and the country itself. It’s a big conversation that we needed to have, and it is a conversation that is going to be very, very difficult for the Rs. For they now have to “defend the indefensible” - the tariffs and higher prices, a slower economy, enormous deficits, the weakening of our financial system, the shifting of the tax burden from the wealthy to every day people, the clear material harm being done to farmers and small businesses; the savage assault on our health care system and public health; higher electricity prices due to the cuts to clean energy subsidies; the ongoing atrocities of DHS and ICE; the abandonment of Ukraine and our European allies; the list just goes on and on…..
What is unfolding across the country and in Washington this fall is a gradual coming to terms with what a disaster this sundowning, ailing, madman is for the country. He has become incredibly unpopular and is growing ever more distant from the American people. His powers of persuasion are ebbing, and he can no longer rally his own voters behind his agenda. Democrats have been overperforming in elections across the country this year; we lead in the major November contests now; the Senate looks far more competitive next year than many would have believed at this point; and Dems have made significant gains in both Party ID and the generic ballot (more on all this here, here).
After months of “American carnage” the political landscape has become much more favorable to Dems, and perhaps, perhaps, the tide has truly begun to turn against the MAGA betrayers.
Watch Harry Enten today. It’s brutal:
Republicans in competitive races in 2026 are not only waking up to the awful reality that they will have to sell this failed and unpopular agenda to their voters next year, they are also going to have to vote on all of it - and own all of it - if the GOP ever produces a fiscal year 2026 budget. And I am not convinced that vulnerable Congressional Republicans will vote for a budget full of all this terrible stuff, which is why I think Trump and the GOP are in much greater disarray - and much greater political trouble - right now than the current discourse suggests.
As this new Politico article explains, Republican leaders are far apart on how to proceed with process of passing a new continuing resolution, and HAVE NOT EVEN BEGUN THE PROCESS OF NEGOTIATING A FISCAL YEAR 2026 BUDGET AND IT’S FUCKING OCTOBER 23rd, 24 DAYS AFTER THE BUDGET WAS REQUIRED BY LAW TO BE IN PLACE. Literally, no joke, the discussions right now are on whether to punt the process to next year, even to after the 2026 election, and not about the budget and the very hard choices ahead. What this article describes, in cleansed insidery DC speak, is a governing party totally melting down.
Leaders Schumer and Jeffries demanded that the negotiations over the budget - not the CR/punt - start over the summer. Republicans refused. There are no budget talks happening in DC. Mike Johnson has kept the House out most days since late July. There is no process in place for Congress to do their most essential job - produce a budget that funds the government. It is total, unbelievable, incredibly reckless, Trumpian chaos.
In the coming months Republicans really only have two choices and they are both terrible ones - force their vulnerable Senators and House members to vote for the most unpopular and destructive piece of legislation in modern American history, or course correct, and begin repudiating/walking away from core parts of Trump’s agenda, something that I think the orange guy is not going to be happy about.
As we discussed yesterday this process of vulnerable Rs saying “oops, we f-ed up here, our bad” and trying to mitigate the damage and run away from Trump has begun. Yes, my friends, little cracks can become big cracks:
Thirteen vulnerable Republicans are urging Speaker Mike Johnson to “immediately turn our focus” to extending Obamacare subsidies after the government reopens.
The group, led by GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, laid out its case Tuesday in a new letter to Johnson, reminding him that millions of Americans face skyrocketing health insurance premiums as a result of the expiration of the subsidies at the end of the year.
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“Allowing these tax credits to lapse without a clear path forward would risk real harm to those we represent,” wrote the lawmakers. “Our Conference and President Trump have been clear that we will not take healthcare away from families who depend on it.”
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House GOP leaders are engaged in early, informal conversations with White House officials about potential changes, too. Still, many hard-liners remain dug in against any extension, which Republicans across the political spectrum caution would be a political mistake heading into the midterms.
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But with no resolution in sight to the 21-day government funding standoff between the two parties, the letter signals mounting GOP anxiety about the issue as Nov. 1 fast approaches. That’s the date for open enrollment in plans under the Affordable Care Act, at which point it might be too late to avoid massive premium hikes.
State insurance officials have warned that an expectation that the enhanced tax credits will expire has already been baked into updated insurance rates, and it will be difficult to update those rates if Congress passes an extension in November or December.
Wait till these vulnerable Rs learn they are going to have to vote for Trump’s destructive tariffs, one of the largest tax increases in American history, and a policy that is raising prices on everything. Am sure they are going to love that too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For the hard cold reality is that much of Trump’s agenda is far more unpopular than he is, and it is that agenda vulnerable Rs will be running on next year.
Additionally, in the last few days we’ve gotten a steady stream of you just have to be f-ing kidding me stuff from Trump, clear signs that he’s become a completely out of control madman that needs to be reined in - the illegal tearing down of the East Wing and the building of an imperial ballroom; the announcement that he is going to just take $230m from the Treasury for himself; the corrupt indictments of his political enemies; the illegal killing of people in the Pacific and Caribbean; the outrageous $40b bailout of Milei in Argentina; the resignation of the Southcom commander; his willingness to negotiate with Hamas but not Democrats here in the US. All of this is creating additional pressure on the Rs to say enough, we have to change course here. We can’t sell you and this stuff to our voters.
To be very clear what Trump has done to the East Wing is illegal. Here is a passage from a letter the National Trust for Historic Preservation sent to the White House on Tuesday:
As I’ve been saying it has just become impossible to look away at what is happening here - at the clear material harm he is doing to the country, the corruption, the serial breaking of laws and criminality, the “more for me, less for all of you” oligarchical agenda, the abandonment of our Constitutional order, the incredible unhappiness of the American people, the millions taking to the streets - and there is now evidence that Congressional Republicans are beginning to meltdown under the weight of it all, and those little cracks are becoming bigger cracks. How big will they get?
I don’t know but we here, at Hopium, we are going to keep working as hard as we can to do those two things we do here - mitigate the damage he is doing, and work tirelessly to win back power - and in this case also do everything we can to make those little cracks far, far bigger.
That’s what we - the proud, plucky patriots of Hopium - talked about last night. Watch the video. Hit like, share it with others and now…..
Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA or wherever you have elections on November 4th - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
