Morning everyone. We start the day with a recording of a live discussion I had yesterday with Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square. It’s comprehensive look at our current moment - the success of No Kings, Trump’s growing unpopularity, his rising authoritarianism. While we cover a lot of ground in the discussion I think what you’ll find most interesting are Stuart’s powerful reflections on the trip he just took to Ukraine and the descent of the GOP from Reagan’s “Tear Down This Wall” to Trump’s servile rolling out of the red carpet for Putin on American soil.
Get to our conversation when you can. It’s a good one. I always feel much smarter after spending time with Stuart and I promise you will too.
New Polls Show Dems With A Shot At The Senate, Making Party ID Gains - Despite their information superiority Trump is now in many independent polls the most unpopular American leader at this point in their time in office since polling was invented. We wrote yesterday about the new AP-NORC poll which is the worst poll Trump has seen this year, coming in at 37%-61% job approval, and even down 14 points on immigration. His powers of persuasion have ebbed, and he is no longer capable of rallying the country - or even his own voters - behind his major initiatives.
Here’s fresh data from Economist/YouGov. Like AP-NORC they have Trump at 21% with independent voters, and here they find him in a complete meltdown with younger people and Hispanics:
The landscape has changed dramatically since November of last year, becoming far more favorable to Democrats. We’ve seen this new, more favorable landscape in our repeated overperformances in special elections across the country this year. We see it in the sturdy polling leads for Prop 50, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger. And now we are starting to see it in other measures too.
Here’s G. Elliott Morris’ latest generic ballot tracker. Dems have gained 7-8 points here since the beginning of the year.
Here’s the new Gallup Party ID tracker. Dems have gained 11 points since the 4th quarter of last year and now lead by 7 points.
Analyst Will Jordan put this data into a handy graph (via Strength In Numbers):
With new polling coming in from Alaska we now have fresh data in most of the key 2026 battlegrounds. Assuming we hold GA, MI, NH, winning in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio would give us the Senate majority in 2027. Here’s what we’ve gotten in recent days:
Alaska Peltola 48% Sullivan 46% (GOP incumbent, Peltola has not yet announced)
Maine Mills 42% Collins 37% (GOP incumbent, Platner is tied 38%-38%)
NC Cooper 46% Whatley 42% (Tillis open seat)
OH Brown 49% Husted 48% (incumbent)
In Texas the most recent independent poll clocked in at:
Cornyn 48% Allred 46%, Talarico 45%
In Florida the most recent poll for governor finds
Donalds 36% (R) Jolly 32% (D)
Two points to close out today.
1) What this data shows is that the 2026 cycle can be one of our opportunity for us. Trump is a diminished figure, voters are unhappy with Republicans, and we are much stronger now than we were a year ago. If we work hard, and our candidates do their job, we can win this November and have a good mid-term next year. Can we flip both chambers? It will be hard, but as this data shows, not impossible.
2) I think the consistent presence of right-aligned polls showing everything far better for Trump and the Republicans than the preponderance of independent data is both discouraging DC discourse from acknowledging the reality of where we now are; and giving Republicans in Congress a false sense of comfort that has become critical to Trump’s keeping his Congressional coalition from splintering. It’s instructive to hear Republicans on television dismiss this bad polling as fake news, and Trump has gone to so far to control the data and information environment that he has fired the BLS director and turned off all the government’s economic data. I will be writing about this more in the coming days but I think we all need to be focusing on how important fake data has become to Trump maintaining control over his coalition, which is why Democrats must learn how to contest the data space with far greater intensity.
Finally, I think the shocking images of his tearing down parts of the White House - and of course his lying about it all - are going to push this ailing, incredibly unpopular and despicable man even further away from the American people…..
Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopium paid subscribers gather tomorrow night at 7pm ET to talk about all this. Register here. Looking forward to getting together with folks!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $117k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $215k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $45k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $84k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $221k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $165,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart, Maine Chair Charlie Dingman, and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA or wherever you have elections on November 4th - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win. Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
