Morning all. Sending along a video recording of our lively gathering last night. The video and transcript are above. Here are some notes from my presentation and the discussion that followed…..
Trump Is In Political, Physical, and Cognitive Decline. His Powers Are Ebbing - A review of public polling in the past few weeks shows Trump in the 20s, 30s and low 40s on all the issues that matter to voters, and in most of his personal leadership attributes. Despite their extraordinary information superiority he has lost the power to rally even his own voters behind him and his agenda. Essentially 55%+ of the country has become unavailable to him, and his ceiling now appears to be in the low to mid 40s.
Look at this new data from Navigator:
On the central issue in our politics now - the government shutdown - Trump is only in the high 30s on fundamental questions of what is happening here. He is a weakened and diminished figure in our politics, and Democrats are right to be challenging him more forcefully. It is also a reason why we’ve begun to see ridicule emerge as a powerful weapon in our fight - for his weakness, buffoonery and failure has become impossible to ignore, and it is encouraging far more creative and ambitious forms of dissent.
Republicans Will Now Have To “Defend The Indefensible” - As I wrote in my major essay from Tuesday, due to the clear harms Trump’s agenda has done to the country and their growing unpopularity, Republicans have only bad political options ahead of them now. Either they course correct, admit error, do things like extend the ACA subsidies, roll back the tariffs, restore the clean energy subsidies to lower the cost of electricity, reverse the DHS/ICE expansion or they will have to vote for what will be the most unpopular and destructive bill (their final budget) in recent history, own it, and run on it next year.
The growing realization on the right of the clear harms Trump has done to the country and their losing political hand has caused small but meaningful cracks to appear in Trump’s Congressional coalition. Will they become big cracks, and will he lose control of his governing majority? We will see, but it far more likely today than at any time this year.
Two Ways Democrats Can Strengthen and Deepen Our Narrative And Argument - I think Democrats should broaden our current argument from health care (a good start) to include tariffs/prices and threats to democracy. We can do more than one thing at a time, and recent polling suggests that voters care at least as much, if not more, about prices and threats to democracy as health care. Expanding our argument will strengthen it, not dilute it.
Here’s an example of how this new expanded narrative can work. These are ads a House SuperPAC is running right now in vulnerable GOP seats:
And here is an ad from a new campaign the DNC has launched in rural parts of the country:
Second, we need a concentrated effort to degrade Trump as a “strong” leader. In polling Trump’s own approval continues to run above the approval of his agenda. We saw in the Exit Polls the basket of issues around “strong leader” and strong enough to “bring needed change” were essential to his victory:
In the Economist/YouGov poll this week we see how this residual impression of strength is helping prop up his approval rating. For this is one of only measures of character or agenda where he is in positive territory, coming in at 48% strong and 38% weak. We need to get this into negative territory in the months ahead.
Good Luck With No Kings Day All. We Must Remain Focused On Winning The Fall Elections. That Is Job 1 - Good luck this weekend everyone, and when you rest up after making good trouble, we need to be all in on winning these fall elections. Public polling remains very encouraging for CA, NJ, and VA. Trump is very unpopular in Pennsylvania. Every independent poll has Sherrill up 6 or more in NJ. Spanberger is up even more in recent public polls in VA. National Rs are not spending in these races; we have the best ground game either state has had in an off year election; and we will outspend them in these closing weeks.
We can and should win in all these states. We just need to keep our heads down and keep pushing.
The Failure Of Trump’s Government And His Political And Physical Decline Are Encouraging His Escalating Authoritarianism - It should be clear to all that Trump has chosen to deal with his manifest governing and political failures not by course correcting, which is what leaders do in a democracy, but by crushing his political opposition. His weakness, his failures, his unpopularity and rejection by the public, his fear of losing power, and our refusal to bend the knee, has led Trump and his team to choose the most un-American and traitorous path of all - autocracy.
We are here now. There can be no denying it. And it is a central reason Democrats and the broader pro-democracy movement must make MAGA’s goal of establishing an apartheid, minority-rule government and ending American democracy far more central to our narrative and argument. We have been advocating this since we launched our Letter to America initiative in March; you have been acting upon this urgent need by advancing our Resolutions Project across the country; and millions of us will attending No Kings Day events this weekend.
Fighting against their threat to our democracy was central to our overperformance in the 2022 midterms; threats to democracy was the #1 issue in the 2024 general election; and as I’ve written, recent polling shows it as a rising concern today, in some polls on par with concerns about inflation and prices.
In my late summer essay, Fighting Trump Now - Some Recommendations For Congressional Democrats, I argued that Democrats should consider setting up some kind of national coordinating council to more effectively challenge Trump’s spiraling authoritarianism. To take him on we must organize ourselves more effectively, for divide and conquer is essential to his strategy:
Talks must begin to create some kind of national Democratic leadership coordinating council. We must find a way for the Senate, House, Governors and other prominent Dems to coordinate and work together. Trump prevails by dividing people and organizations, keeping them isolated and apart, so they are more easily steamrolled. The antidote to that strategy is for us to try to find ways to get bigger, to work together not separately, as the 23 Dem AGs do every day. We have to start seeing ourselves as all on the same opposition team, and to build these disparate parts into a true opposition movement with some kind of loose coordinating council.
What we have now is insufficient and something much bigger, more powerful has to be built, and Democratic donors MUST get off the sidelines and help create the kind of capacity needed now to fight an escalating and increasingly ambitious Trump. Factional infighting is an indulgence we do not have right now. We must all hold hands and get stronger, more ambitious, more powerful for we will literally hang together or hang separately. Everyone must do their part now, and everyone has a role to play.
We are here now. Watch my video and share it with others. As Robert Frost told us “the best way out is always through,” and friends in this time of crisis we cannot let up and need to keep fighting with everything we got.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!
I want to thank everyone who has given in recent days. We saw a big uptick in giving before the critical q3 filing deadline. Note that we’ve hit $200,000 raised now for our 7 House incumbents and Abigail Spanberger, and $100,000 for Mikie Sherrill. Thank you all!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $112k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill | Read my new post about Sherrill’s sturdy polling lead
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $211k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom
Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win.
Voting early = another way to help us win.
Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $44k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $83k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $219k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $60,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart, Maine Chair Charlie Dingman, and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have three recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
3 - Go to a No Kings Day event! - Find an event near you here!
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
