Morning all. The USMNT got it done last night, beating Bosnia 2-0. It’s the first time we have won three games at a World Cup, and only the second time we’ve ever won a knock out round game. It’s a remarkable achievement by our team and their great coach Mauricio Pochettino. Our next match is Monday night at 8pm ET against Belgium, currently the 9th ranked team in the world (we are currently ranked 15th). And yes, the red card against our star striker Falorin Balogun was ridiculous, one of the worst calls I’ve seen in my many, many decades of watching soccer. My son Willie had a bunch of his high school friends over last night and it was a rowdy and joyous night at our house - so I start the day with a little extra pep in my step……….
Next, some breaking news this morning - Trump is a vainglorious idiot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Before we get to my weekly talk we are going to spend time with new data and some charts.
We got the June jobs and wage numbers this morning and they weren’t good - 57,000 new jobs in June, significant downward revisions in April and May, 3.5% wage growth over the past year. Let’s create some context around these numbers.
First, here is the real measurable impact of what Trump’s tariffs and war have done to job growth. It’s not good:
Here’s a chart comparing Trump’s job creation record compared to other recent Presidents. Simply, he has the worst jobs record of any President since Hoover. Note that Democratic Presidents have created jobs at almost three times the rate of Republicans from FDR through Trump.
As for wages, inflation is now running much higher than wage growth, meaning that people are now earning less in real terms than they were even a few months ago. Note the trend lines - wages are trending down (tariff, war) and inflation is expected to stay above 4% through the rest of the year. So while wealthy people have had their taxes cut and are seeing their wealth increase due to stock market gains every day Americans are falling behind. Trumponomics - more for him, less for all of us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In recent days the NYT and Fox News have released battleground Senate polls, giving us an important window into the state of the 2026 election. Ossoff and Cooper have leads outside of the margin of error, and everything is close and competitive. Given how Republican many of these states are this data is very encouraging, and it confirms how much the national battleground has titled towards us. We got a shot people!
Keep in mind that if these races stay close, and our candidates keep these races competitive, we should be able to main significant down ballot gains in these states, including in critical battleground House races. Yes, 2026 has clearly become a year of opportunity for us.
My third bit of data is this - despite the ending of the war and decline of gas prices Trump has not yet seen any uptick in his approval rating. It may come but right now the guy is still in terrible shape:
I addressed four main topics in my talk last night:
Greater MAGA - Trump, Putin, Bibi - have all seen their political projects take big hits, and this is good news for freedom loving people everywhere.
We should be optimistic about the election given the data we continue to see, and the great candidates our party is fielding in the battlegrounds (that we keep meeting each week); and that Job One for all us is to do everything we can get to win as many of these battleground Senate and House election as possible. The election is four months away. Early voting starts in Virginia in eleven weeks. Everyone now needs to be turning their networks and communities towards these winning races - it’s the whole game now.
Trump is desperate and scared, and is going to do whatever it takes to keep us from taking back power next January. The two ways we here at Hopium are going to respond to his growing desperation is by 1) helping us win the election by as big a margin as possible 2) create Vote Early campaigns in our communities across the country. For more on this see my new interview with democracy warrior Marc Elias.
We are seeing a new Democratic Party emerge before our eyes. Our goal here at Hopium is to work hard to ensure that this new Party that we are building is better than what came before, and not just new and different; that it fields candidates who fit their states and districts, and can best represent their own constituencies; and that we must strive to be both warriors for working people and defenders of freedom and democracy, here and everywhere. I call this embracing the rainbow, an acknowledgement that our party must be diverse to be successful; that there is no one path forward for us but many; that as we go forward we must hang together or we will hang separately; and that we must at all times as we build this next party be respectful of one another, inform and not inflame, listen more and shout less, and welcome the debate about our future and not run from it.
That’s what we talked about last night. It was a lively discussion. Get to it when you can, hit like so more will see it, share it with others, and keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win, together!Yes, It’s Time To Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
(Please be patient as we overhaul and update this section. Note that we have now changed our ActBlue default settings so that your contact information is only shared with a campaign if you give your affirmative permission. Many of you have asked for this and it is now our standard operating procedure. )
Amazingly, this community contributed another $49,000 to our candidates and party committees yesterday, putting our raise over the last three days all the way up to $300,000, and almost $4 million for the cycle. Thank you all!
Winning The House
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $934,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $165,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or running in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Winning The Senate
Our New Winning The Senate Fund - $448,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), Graham Platner (ME), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $465,000 figure is what we’ve raised for these six so far, as you see will below.
You can also continue to contributions to their individual campaigns here:
Roy Cooper For NC Senate - $128,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $113,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $7,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer
James Talarico For Texas - $100,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $27,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek
Jon Ossoff For GA Senate - $201,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States
Winning Iowa - $14,100 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart
Winning Ohio - $171,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help turn this critical 2026 battleground blue
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $618,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds.
Some Things To Call Congress About This Week
Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans
Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk
No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……
Hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton
Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.
See the Hopium Agenda Project for what we can and should be fighting for now….
Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - And Keep It Paywall Free For All
A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 225 new people, meaningful progress towards our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success. Follow the link below for group and gift subscriptions too!
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
