Morning all. Another day, another unhinged, manic and dangerous series of actions by our unwell and unfit leader. I will be joining legal expert Allison Gill (bio) today at 2pm on a Substack live to review all the new ugliness. You can join us by clicking here at 2pm or change your settings to get notified whenever I go live either with Hopium or a guest on another channel.
Trump has had a bad week. Kimmel returned. His poll numbers continued to drop. He repeatedly humiliated himself at the UN, and became an object of global ridicule and scorn. He chickened out of a meeting with Leaders Schumer and Jeffries who have refused to bend the knee. Dems got the 218th vote to pass a discharge petition to release the Epstein files. And so, like an abusive husband, the madman-in-chief came home on Thursday and took it out on America and all of us.
Yesterday James Comey was corruptly indicted. Wild, insane new tariffs were levied. And the Trump team dramatically escalated their authoritarian crackdown on free speech, dissent and their perceived opposition.
Here is the video Jame Comey released last night after he was indicted:
Here’s Stephen Miller threatening the governor of California on Twitter as an example of their evolving “saying true things about the regime = terrorism” framework.
The inspiring Attorney General of Massachusetts, Andrea Campbell, came by yesterday to talk about all this and the important role she and her 22 fellow Dem AGs have played in fighting Trump’s ongoing assault on our democracy, rule of law and our freedoms. The Dem AGs have been aggressive, coordinated and effective, a model for the rest of the pro-democracy family. It is clear now given where Trump is headed their role as guardians of our Constitution will only grow in importance.
I asked the Attorney General, who has been on the front lines of this critical battle to preserve our democracy what advice she had for all of us. This is what she said:
“Find something to attach yourself to in this moment of time. To participate. Because the collective effort is what’s going to win the day against an administration that is moving away from our democratic institutions and democratic values.”
I was then excited to share that we here in this community have been doing just that, and that in fact the good citizens of Massachusetts have taken the lead now in passing “resolutions of condemnation” in Amherst, Boston, and Easthampton. The Attorney General was proud to hear that her constituents were doing the work that needs to get done now. It’s a great moment in this wonderful conversation.
Get to this interview when you can. It will lift you up and put a little extra pep in your step today - and we all need that today don’t we?
This clip of Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries from yesterday will also give you a boost. We are in the fight we all wanted to have with Trump, and it is one we simply must win:
Sherrill Up 48%-41% (+7) In New Poll - We are way past the time, given the right’s history of treating polling like a part of the information domain (here, here), when a single, right-aligned outlier poll should shape our understanding of any election. Here are the recent polls from New Jersey. Sherrill leads by an average of 7 points (8 without Emerson), and the data is remarkably consistent throughout all the polls except this new Emerson poll:
Sherrill 48%-41% (+7) Clear Insights (right-aligned, released yesterday)
Sherrill 43%-43% (even) Emerson (right-aligned, released yesterday)
Sherrill 49%-41% (+8) Quinnipiac (last week)
Sherrill 49%-39% (+10) Quantus (right-aligned)
Sherrill 46%-39% (+7) TIPP (right-aligned)
Sherrill 47%-37% (+10) Rutgers-Eagleton
Sherrill 51%-45% (+6) A2 Insights
The desperate Ciattarelli campaign is trying to create the impression that the election is close. In the last few weeks they released two “internal” polls showing the race a toss up, and then got an assist yesterday from this Emerson poll funded by Nexstar, a Nexstar TV affiliate and The Hill, also owned by Nexstar. (yes the anti Jimmy Kimmel Nexstar). While Emerson was once an independent polling shop in recent years it has polled for right-aligned groups, and this poll, and their national polling, show an electorate 7-10 points more Republican than the current poll averages.
The last Emerson national poll had Trump’s job approval at 45%-47% (-2), 10 points better than the Strength In Numbers average of 42%-54% (-12). Similarly this new NJ poll finds an electorate between 7 and 10 points more Republican THAN ALL OF THE OTHER POLLS, including three from right-aligned pollsters. The Emerson NJ poll has Trump’s job approval at 41%-51% (-10), lower than the national average right now. Simply this is not plausible; given that New Jersey went 8 points more Democratic than the national popular vote and that Democrats have been overperforming our 2024 results in elections across the country this year. Strength In Numbers estimates Trump’s job approval in NJ should be -20, not -10, based on dozens and dozens of national polls in recent months. A 43%-43% result would signal a 6-8 point swing towards the Republican candidate from 2024, a result we have not seen in any other election in the country this year and a trend that is not showing up in any of the states having fall elections.
So Emerson has been producing outlier, very pro-Trump national polls this year and just produced a very pro-GOP outlier poll in New Jersey, one funded by one of the two media groups that have taken Jimmy Kimmel off the air. OK.
The Downballot newsletter has a very smart new analysis out this am, Republicans still aren’t spending like the New Jersey governor’s race is a tossup:
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, shared an internal poll during the intervening time that found him edging past Sherrill 46-45, which made it the first—and so far only—survey to show him with any sort of lead. The Republican nominee, as we noted at the time, was likely showing off these numbers from National Research to convince donors that his campaign, which has been getting badly outspent, is worth investing in.
So far, that pitch hasn’t worked as intended. New data from AdImpact shows that Sherrill and her allies have reserved $13.5 million in advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, compared to just $1.5 million for Ciattarelli’s side.
There’s still time for well-funded Republican groups to rush in if they become convinced that this race is the tossup that the polls from Emerson and Ciattarelli show, instead of the Democratic-friendly contest that Foster, Quinnipiac, and most prior surveys have found. One prominent Republican, though, is giving Ciattarelli some help for free—whether he likes it or not.
“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in response to Emerson’s new numbers.
As we learned in both 2022 and 2024, Rs work the polling averages with their right-leaning polls to make it look like their candidates are strong and gaining and ours weak and fading in the closing days of an election when disinterested voters begin checking in. While we can take nothing for granted in any election, the data suggests that like Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill enters the home stretch with a sturdy lead and if we keep working hard she should prevail in this critical November election - particularly after the Rs got caught this week playing dirty tricks.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $84k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $197k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks
Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win. Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $38,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $73k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $205k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $37,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas - Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Links to be able support each party individually will be up soon
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restore due process to our immigration system, defend the 1st Amendment, and end the use of the military on our streets and the occupations of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 81 (!!!!) resolution projects in 22 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and a future to reclaim for our kids and grandkids - Simon
