Morning all. Republicans run Washington. Presidency, Senate, House, the Supreme Court. All of it. One of their central responsibilities is to pass a budget to fund the government. By law that budget was supposed to be passed and in place on September 30th. The reason the government has shut down is that Republicans have not passed a budget, and so there is no funding for what we call the Fiscal Year 2026 budget that runs from October 1st, 2025 through September 30th of 2026.
The question I want to put on the table now is this - do we think this factious party with a madman leader can ever actually agree on a budget in the coming months? Under our current rules passing a budget requires 60 votes in the Senate, all 53 Republicans and 7 Democrats, and a simple majority in the House. Do we think that these guys can somehow strike a deal that 7 Democrats, all Congressional Rs and Trump can agree to? That has binding rules that prevent Russell Vought from just going in and doing whatever he wants with the appropriated monies - illegally, unconstitutionally - as he is doing now?
For that final budget will not only include all the incredibly unpopular things from their reconciliation bill, it will have to include ugly things Trump has done outside of Congress. So what Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike, will be asked to vote for this winter includes the ruinous tariffs that have increased costs, slowed the economy are doing extraordinary harm to farmers and small businesses across the country; the forging of a massive domestic police force loyal to Trump not the Constitution; the gutting of our health care system and our public health; the ending of clean energy subsidies that have cost us good manufacturing jobs and brought much higher electricity costs; a much higher deficit that will dangerously weaken the fiscal integrity of the United States and our place in the global economy; our abandonment of Ukraine and our European allies; and the continued shifting of the tax burden of America from the wealthy to the middle and working classes. This budget will be a ratification of Trump’s oligarchical agenda, his authoritarian fantasies, his ongoing sabotage of this great country. Can they get 60 votes for that? Can they get even a majority of Republicans, including those facing competitive elections next year, to vote for that? For with their slender majorities they can only lose 2 votes in the House and 3 in the Senate in a simple majority vote. Will Rand Paul vote for the tariffs and the ICE expansion? Will MTG vote for the gutting of our health system? Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski now vote things they have voted against in previous votes? Thom Tillis? What about the vulnerable House incumbents. Are they going to vote for the tariffs and higher inflation? The gutting of health care? Exploding deficits? Will the Freedom Caucus go along with major concessions to either the vulnerable Rs or Democrats if the filibuster remains in place?
I don’t think any of this is a given. Trump and his agenda are wildly unpopular. His first nine months have been a like a wrecking ball on the country, and the clear, material harm he is doing to all of us cannot be wished away. They are losing all the big arguments about the current, ridiculous shutdown. He is old and in ill-health, and his public performances have become far more unhinged and untethered, even for him. Basically, Trump is a huge fuck up, his agenda is toxic, his powers are ebbing, and voting for all this will make it more likely that vulnerable Republicans will lose their elections next year, and that country itself will be harmed.
This is the issue landscape right now, the things Republicans will now have to once again affirmatively vote for this winter. As we discussed last week Trump is now in the 20s and 30s - not the 40s or 50s - on most of the issues that matter to voters.
Every independent poll released in the past 10 days has shown the shutdown pushing Trump’s already terrible poll numbers down further:
Ipsos/Reuters 40%-58% (-18) 1 pt ⬇️
Econ/YouGov 39%-56% (-17) 2 pts ⬇️
CBS 42%-58% (-16) 4 pts ⬇️
Civiqs 40%-56% (-16) 4 pts ⬇️
Morn Cons 45%-53% (-8) 2 pts ⬇️
For I think the shutdown, and the deeply destructive and imperious way Trump has handled it, has reinforced our core argument against him - that he doesn’t care for the country or the American people, only himself and other oligarchs. So in this fight he is becoming weaker, more distant from the public, and less capable of rallying the country around him. I also think whatever happened in the Middle East yesterday it begs the question that if the dude can negotiate with Hamas, roll out the red carpet for Putin, and hang with the Chinese why can’t he sit down with the Democrats and get a deal?
But Simon you say, of course they will fall in line. They always do. My response of course is that little cracks can become big cracks, and you just never know in politics. For Trump today is now consistently more unpopular than Joe Biden was after his disastrous debate performance when we were all told that he had to leave the Presidential race. More unpopular than Biden and with a far worse economy than Biden had.
Here is Axios’ lead story today:
Here’s what Axios then writes:
As President Trump basks in his success in the Middle East, hairline fractures within his Republican base are cropping up on a smattering of domestic issues.
Why it matters: Republicans have been in near-lockstep with Trump in his second term. So the small pockets of resistance — on the National Guard deployments, free speech, the federal shutdown and more — signal concerns within the GOP as the 2026 midterms come into sight.
A sample of Republicans who’ve been pushing back:
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia: Once one of Trump’s most loyal and outspoken supporters on Capitol Hill, Greene (along with Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie) has been vocal in calling on the White House to release the Epstein files. And Greene has seemed to echo Democrats in chiding GOP congressional leaders over the shutdown.
“I’m carving my own lane,” Greene posted on X last week, adding that she was “absolutely disgusted” that health insurance costs for millions of Americans would soar if the GOP-led Congress doesn’t extend the tax credits Democrats are demanding to end the shutdown.
2. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt: He told The New York Times that he disagreed with Trump’s decision to send Texas National Guard troops to Illinois as part of the president’s crackdown on crime. Stitt, like scores of Democrats, called it a violation of “states’ rights.”
“Oklahomans would lose their mind” if Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) “sent troops down to Oklahoma during the Biden administration,” Stitt said.
3. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox: He took to X over the weekend to express his unhappiness about the Trump administration canceling North America’s largest solar power project, saying, “This is how we lose the AI/energy arms race to China.”
4. Vivek Ramaswamy: The former GOP presidential candidate, now running for Ohio governor, made clear he disagreed with the administration’s pressuring of ABC that led to the brief suspension of late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel, a frequent Trump critic.
5. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas: He compared FCC chair Brendan Carr’s implied threats to broadcasters such as ABC to mafia tactics, calling them “dangerous as hell.”
Cruz said he plans to introduce a bill to make it easier for people to sue the government for censorship.
6. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine: The senator, who’s up for reelection next year, criticized White House budget director Russ Vought last week over his decision to permanently lay off thousands of federal workers during the shutdown.
“Regardless of whether federal employees have been working without pay or have been furloughed, their work is incredibly important to serving the public,” Collins said.
and….“if you’re a Republican member in a district that’s even remotely competitive, you have to have areas where you can show some distance” from Trump, said former Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican.
They left out this post from one of Trump’s most ardent supporters, Laura Loomer, from late Friday:
Watch this new video the DNC put out this morning. Look at the material, the stories of the incredible harm Trump and the Rs have done to the country, we have to work with. Watch this video and then share it with everyone you know:
Here is what Trump was focused on this morning - him, always him, and never ever us, the American people…..
As we discussed yesterday this broad and deep dissatisfaction has created space for mockery and ridicule to become a major force now. The No Kings Day events will further reinforce the intensity of the opposition they now face to their disastrous government.
As a political strategist I think Trump and Republicans are in a far darker political place than the current discourse currently reflects. In this coming budget fight and into the elections next year they are going to be forced to defend the worst government in our history, one that is doing, clear, material, intentional harm to the country; trampling our rights and liberties and our Constitutional order; destroying our global reputation and making us all far less safe; a government that is wildly unpopular and led by a sundowning, imperious madman who was Jeffrey Epstein’s closest friend and party buddy……
They have no way to escape from what they’ve done, the harm they have caused. No ads can make all this go away. Will they start to walk away from it all - the health care cuts, the tariffs, the ICE expansion, him - to attempt to mitigate the damage? Will little cracks become big cracks? Or will they stay the course out of fear and cowardice?
That’s what this budget fight is really all about it, and we are clearly in the early, early days. Can Republicans pass a budget this year? That is the real question we should be asking now, and I don’t think anyone knows the answer.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!
I want to thank everyone who has given in recent days. We saw a big uptick in giving before the critical q3 filing deadline. Note that we’ve hit $200,000 raised now for our 7 House incumbents and Abigail Spanberger, and $100,000 for Mikie Sherrill. Thank you all!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $111k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill | Read my new post about Sherrill’s sturdy polling lead | Sherrill leads by 8 in new Fox poll
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Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have three recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
3 - Go to a No Kings Day event! - Find an event near you here!
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan.
We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so….
Simon
I’ve spent yesterday evening and this morning contacting my local sheriff, county commissioners, DA, city councilors and mayor. This town is small enough and I’ve been here long enough that most of them are at least somewhat familiar with me. Here’s a variation of my script that anyone can riff off of:
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I am concerned about the rhetoric being used by federal officials regarding this weekend's No Kings events. They are telling the public that participants in No Kings are "paid," "antifa" and "terrorists."
That rhetoric is factually untrue and dangerous. People who will be participating in our town’s No Kings event this Saturday are regular community members such as myself.
There may be people in our area who believe conspiracy theories and possess assault rifles. If they believe the lies coming from Washington DC about our community members who choose to join the No Kings events, then they may be inclined to harm or threaten the participants.
Please issue a public statement reminding the community that all of us have the rights to freedom of speech and freedom of assembly, and that the people who will be participating in the events this weekend are our fellow community members.
Thank you.
The Trump Regime intentionally forced this government shutdown, of that there can be no doubt. And it must be viewed through a double lens. In today’s Hopium, Simon does a great job of delineating the view through the *Political Lens* – and I agree with his argument that Democrats are winning.
But the other lens, and the only one that matters to the likes of OMB Director Russ Vought, to Stephen Miller, and to Trump himself, is the *Lens of Power*. As I understand it, during a government shutdown, the President has the power to decide which government services are "essential". As a result, we are seeing the continuation of the unprecedented executive-branch power grab that started at noon on 20 January.
There may be some hairline cracks visible in the Republican Senate and House caucuses. But I have a hard time seeing that the Trumpist Party will allow meaningful compromise with Democrats, let alone any curtailment written into legislation of the powers Trump is claiming (however lawfully).
Right now, I have a hard time seeing an off-ramp from the government shutdown.
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That said, in the meantime Democrats can score a helluva lot of political points! Those are likely to be decisive in the 2026 midterms – and every election between now and then. My dream, no longer beyond the realm of possibility, is to see Democrats take back the Senate as well as the House! And to make significant gains in state-level downballot races.
Our systematic and intrepid work now can make that possible!