Janet Mills Jumps Into Maine Senate Race, DNC Launches Campaign Against Trump's Tariffs, Little Cracks Can Become Big Cracks

I'm joining Adam Klasfeld live today at noon ET/Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET

Morning all. First some programming notes. Four ways to catch me this week, live (click on the links for registration info):

• Today, Noon ET - Substack Live event with Adam Klasfeld Of All Rise News

• Tonight, 7pm ET - Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together

• Friday, Noon ET - Network Nova’s Friday Power Lunch

• Friday, 3pm ET - Stand Up For Science Rally In Front Of HHS in Washington, DC. Note sure what time I will be on stage but come join us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Next, if you haven’t read yesterday’s post, Will Republicans Ever Pass A Budget?, strongly encourage you to get to it when you can. In this essay I argue that the central question in Washington now is whether Trump, Thune and Johnson can keep their coalitions together as their conferences are asked to vote for what is going to be a deeply destructive and unpopular budget in the coming months, something I am calling “defending the indefensible.” The Republican Congressional majorities are historically narrow - they can only lose 2 votes in the House and 3 in the Senate - so any kind of sustained structural break like we’ve seen with Marjorie Taylor Greene in recent weeks becomes very significant.

In my post I link to an Axios article about the growing cracks we’ve seen in the GOP’s coalition in recent weeks as Trump continues to grow more unpopular and the reality of the damage they’ve done to the country sinks in. Watch this video put together by Christopher Webb of recent statements by Joe Rogan and MTG. Stunning stuff:

Politico has a profile this morning of Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley titled Mike Johnson’s nightmare: Kevin Kiley is unhappy with the speaker and has nothing to lose. It begins:

California Rep. Kevin Kiley was already one of Speaker Mike Johnson’s loudest Republican critics — even before the government shutdown started earlier this month.

Now two weeks into the standoff, Kiley made clear in an interview Tuesday he has no plans to quiet down on Johnson’s handling of the shutdown, the future of crucial health insurance subsidies and the GOP’s controversial redistricting campaign that has suddenly put Kiley’s own political future in doubt.

Having already called Johnson’s strategy of keeping the House out of session during the shutdown “embarrassing,” Kiley reiterated Tuesday that it was the “wrong decision” and threatens to prolong the impasse.

Rank-and-file members could add pressure to find “some sort of agreement” that would end the shutdown, Kiley said. “When people are just not here, and those conversations aren’t taking place,” he added, that allows the two sides’ rigid positions “to calcify.”

Kiley, who was in Washington Tuesday and appeared at an otherwise sparsely attended pro forma afternoon session, added that the no-show strategy also means House Republicans are “again falling behind” on the full-year spending bills that could be part of a lasting solution to the shutdown: “All the things we were supposed to be getting done and working on are not getting done.”

If Kiley bands together with other rebels including Rep. Massie and MTG Trump and Johnson will have effectively lost control of the House. For if rank and file Republicans really do break with Trump and Johnson on the Epstein files, then on ACA subsidies, what is stop them from bucking him on the tariffs or other parts of their unpopular and indefensible agenda?

With pressure, my friends, little cracks can become big cracks.

The entrance of Governor Janet Mills into the Maine Senate race is another significant new pressure point on one of their most significant cracks, Senator Susan Collins. In the only public poll we have Mills leads Collins by 5, 42%-37% in a state Harris won by 7 points (Platner is tied with Collins 38%-38% in this poll). Again Rs can only lose 3 votes in the Senate to pass a budget with a simple majority. Senators Paul, Tillis, and Collins all voted against the big ugly bill. Senator Murkowski has voted against the Administration repeatedly this year. If Collins now becomes a hard no on the Trump agenda due to Mills getting in Thune gets one step closer to losing control of the chamber - even if they get rid of the filibuster for the final budget vote.

Here is Governor Mills’ announcement video:

At this point I don’t intend to endorse candidates in the IA, ME and TX Senate primaries as our strategy is support the state parties and get them ready for when we do have a general election candidate next year. I will invite all the candidates to come speak to us. One, James Talarico, joined us a few weeks ago.

Speaking of Texas a promising state legislator, Gina Hinojosa, jumped into the long-shot governor’s race there yesterday. Here is her launch video:

Another place Dems have started to apply pressure is on the tariffs and the damage they are doing to the farm economy. Yesterday the DNC rolled out a new campaign to stand with American farmers, kicking it off with a press event with Governor Tim Walz and a farmer from Illinois, John Bartman. Here’s the 30 second spot now running in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky:

Watch the great coverage the launch got yesterday yesterday on a Fox station in Minneapolis. We need to pressing this case across the country. It is a clear winner for us:

Finally, I am pleased to report that “resolutions of condemnation” have passed in Shutesbury and Stow Massachusetts. Here’s how one local paper previewed the vote last night in Shutesbury (which then did pass):

SHUTESBURY — A request from 44 residents to endorse a “Declaration Defending our Democracy, the U.S. Constitution and the Rule of Law” will be discussed by the Select Board Tuesday.

Residents made their appeal in August and sought action in advance of Constitution Day on Sept. 17, advising the board that a national effort is underway to get local governments to take a public stand in support of democracy and the Constitution.

“Many Shutesbury residents have attended protest after protest after protest, showing concern, fear and urgency about the current federal executive branch’s undermining of the rule of law, separation of powers and basic fairness and empathy,” they wrote. “We are eager for this resolution to be considered and passed.”

Similar resolutions have been adopted throughout the region, including in Amherst and Easthampton, with language critical of President Donald Trump and his administration for having “a blatant disregard for the separation of powers by disobeying court rulings, attempting to overturn birthright citizenship, denying fundamental civil liberties such as habeas corpus, withholding funds approved by Congress (and) closing departments and
agencies created by Congress.”

Congratulations to Hopium community members Miriam DeFant and Mark Roberts for leading the charge in Shutesbury and Stow!

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!

I want to thank everyone who has given in recent days. We saw a big uptick in giving before the critical q3 filing deadline. Note that we’ve hit $200,000 raised now for our 7 House incumbents and Abigail Spanberger, and $100,000 for Mikie Sherrill. Thank you all!

Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $112k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill | Read my new post about Sherrill’s sturdy polling lead | Sherrill leads by 8 in new Fox poll

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $211k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom

Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.

Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $43k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $82k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $219k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $60,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart, Maine Chair Charlie Dingman, and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025. We also have ongoing campaigns to support the DNC and our friend Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party.

Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have three recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

2. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities

3. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

4. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?

3 - Go to a No Kings Day event! - Find an event near you here!

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan.

We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so - Simon