Morning all. The proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered last night for our weekly get together, and as usual, it was a lively affair. A recording and rough transcript can be found above. There were a few key themes we explored, together……
Trump Remains Wildly Unpopular, The Republican Party Is An Incredible Mess, And The Renewed War Will Remind Everyone Of His Many Failures - Renewed war, bad jobs numbers last week, inflation still raging, the ridiculous disappearance of Mitch McConnell, intense infighting, the damage done by the health care cuts becoming more apparent, escalating in your face corruption, Trump pushing absurd nominees - four months before the election the Republican thing is an epic disaster, and voters know it.
Here’s Economist/YouGov this week. Trump drops 5 points over the past week, is 21%-71% with independents, and is now at his lowest level in this poll this cycle:
Polling Is Very Encouraging, And We Need To Stay Focused On Helping Our Candidates Win - The same overperformance we’ve been seeing in local and special elections this cycle is now manifesting in the general election.
Even with a very hard map Democrats have put the Senate in play:
We’ve seen a huge surge in people identifying with the Democratic Party, and PartyID is now at one of the highest levels of the past 35 years:
While we don’t have a lot of House polling, the SuperPAC of the House Dems just released a new poll of NY-17 that tracks what we are seeing in the national and Senate polling - Cait Conley leads Mike Lawler 51%-45%. Lawler’s favorability is 39%-55%, Trump’s is 38%-60%. While this is a partisan poll the data tracks the kind of shifts we are seeing across the country.
There is a lot swirling around in our family right now but we cannot lose sight of the extraordinary opportunity in front of us to take power away and weaken MAGA all across the country. The general election is here. Most of our nominees have been chosen, and we need to do everything we can to help them win. Job one now is to help the 40 or courageous Democrats running in battleground Senate and House races win. Winning or losing will come down to these 40 or so races. We have great candidates - now our job is to help them win.
We Have To Heed Marc Elias’ Wise Words - When Marc came to speak to us a few weeks ago here is what he said:
“The best way to prevent Trump from screwing around with the election is to win by as big a margin as possible.”
Maine - Platner has dropped out, and the Maine Democratic Party is working hard to create a fair and transparent process to select a new nominee under incredibly challenging circumstances. I am proud of how aggressively and adroitly the Maine Democratic Party has acted in recent days for it is year of opportunity for us in Maine - our gubernatorial candidate leads by 15, the generic ballot is +11 Dem - and Susan Collins can be beaten.
We’ve launched a fundraising drive to help Maine Dems cover the costs of their upcoming Convention - an expensive and time consuming process that is draining time and money from their vital general election work. We hit our initial goal of $25,000 raised last night - thank you all. We’ve set a new goal of $50,000 - please consider donating today and help the intrepid leaders of the Maine Democratic Party make this critical process a successful one!
If you want to see who is leading the charge in Maine here is my interview with Maine Chair Charlie Dingman from last fall. He’s a great guy and doing a remarkable job under very challenging circumstances right now:
Lessons From The Platner Disaster - In a series of essays over the past few days I’ve written about some of the current debates happening in our family, including the significance of the emergence of a new, more muscular Platner/Fight Agency/DSA/Bernie brand of politics:
Some Thoughts On What’s Next For Maine And Our Fight To Flip The Senate
More Notes On The Importance Of Character In The 2026 Elections
I encourage you to review them when you can, and I do go into depth about it all in my talk if you watch/listen. Here’s the bottom line - I believe there are real limits to Platnerism. While it may work well in Democratic primaries in blue places, it has not proven to be successful in battleground states and districts. Even at his best days of polling Platner had the worst polling of any battleground candidate relative to the partisan lean of his state this cycle, and depending on how you cut the data he may have been the weakest battleground Senate candidate we’ve had over the last three cycles. Abdul El-Sayed, another candidate in his new DSA/Bernie mold, is also underperforming the partisan lean of Michigan right now, as you can see in the Senate data above and also in G. Elliott Morris’ new analysis that I cite in these essays.
I am open to the idea that with Trump things have changed, and that new realities that are birthing a new politics for us. I remain open to it. But the data is the data. G. Elliott Morris estimates that given the partisan lean of Maine Platner should have been up by 15 points, as Hannah Pingree is now in the gubernatorial race. The generic ballot in the NYT’s Maine poll was 53%-42%, +11. Platner’s polling lead averaged 7 points before the primary, 4 points below a generic Democrat. Even at his highest point he was running below a generic Democrat, and was the only battleground candidate in 2026 where that was the case.
As I wrote yesterday of all the gaslighting and bullshitting of the Platner campaign - and we now know it was epic - one of their most pernicious false narratives was about the relative strength of Platner’s politics. For as dominant as we was in the primary he was never a high-performing general election candidate, and in fact, may have been our weakest battleground Senate candidate of the last three cycles relative to the partisan lean of his state.
Stuart Stevens released a powerful video last night that offered advice to Graham Platner about how to make this next chapter in his life a successful one. It is worth your time:
That’s some of what we talked about last night. Check out my talk, share it with others, hit like so more will see it, and friends we have one job now - to elect as many of the 40 or so courageous battleground House and Senate candidates as we can!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So, Yes, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The House
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $957,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $169,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or running in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Winning The Senate/Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States
Our New Winning The Senate Fund - $466,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our five candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $465,000 figure is what we’ve raised for these five so far, as you see will below (and a very modest amount for Platner is included in this total).
You can also contribute to their individual campaigns or our expansion state bundles here:
Roy Cooper For NC Senate - $129,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $114,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
James Talarico For Texas - $101,500 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $34,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek
Winning Iowa - $14,900 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart
Winning Ohio - $173,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help turn this critical 2026 battleground blue
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $621,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Senate Holds
Jon Ossoff For GA Senate - $201,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Note that we have now changed our ActBlue default settings so that your contact information is only shared with a campaign if you give your affirmative permission. Many of you have asked for this and it is now our standard operating procedure.
Some Things To Call Congress About This Week
Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans
Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk
No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……
Hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton
Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.
See the Hopium Agenda Project for what we can and should be fighting for now, and our Resolutions Project for ways to more forcefully condemn Trump’s unprecedented corruption and betrayal of the country.
Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better - And Keep It Paywall Free For All
A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. Our Independence day subscription drive and sale netted us 282 new subscribes - a little short of our goal, but progress nonetheless. To help us hit our goal of 500 new subscribers I’m extending the sale of an annual new subscription through August 1st. So it’s 10% off an annual subscription now through the end of July, and follow the link below for group and gift subscriptions too!
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
