Morning all. My weekly video is above. But some news first…
Inflation Is Still Way To High - The May report of one of the three main gauges of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, was released this morning. In May the PCE Price Index grew 0.4 percent, making it a 4.1% increase over the past year. 4.1% is double the Fed target rate. Double.
Here are our updated PCE charts. For our latest CPI and PPI charts head here. Yes, despite his promises to lower prices and make our lives better Trump has done everything he can to make inflation great again.
Venezuela’s Earthquakes - We wake to horrific scenes in Venezuela. We should all be interested in hearing today from the Acting President of Venezuela about his plans for rebuilding and recovery. Perhaps he can use that oil revenue he’s stolen from the Venezuelan people as earnest money to get the recovery fund off the ground.
Last night members of this remarkable community got together for our weekly chat and it was another lively affair. A video recording and rough transcript can be found above. A few top lines from our discussion last night:
Trump’s Powers Are Ebbing, His War Has Failed, His “Peace” Is Surrender, And He Is Growing Increasingly Desperate And Unhinged - This is the central story of the moment. His war failed and his surrender was cowardly and dangerous, and has left America a far weaker power. Iran continues to refuse to bend the knee and his Gulf Arab partners have launched their own reconciliation process outside the US framework. He bowed to Xi in China. Orban fell. His allies Putin and Bibi are losing their wars too. In recent weeks he’s lost consequential Congressional votes on his failed war and on his rancid appeasement of Putin. Senate Republicans have refused to fund his ballroom and his slush fund, and continue to refuse to pass the SAVE Act. The Reflecting Pool and Kennedy Center debacles are eating away at his legitimacy here in the Capital. A Senator yelled at him at their lunch yesterday. Yelled at him and called him brother. Not President. Your Highness. Brother.
Here’s Punchbowl this morning:
A year ago, Senate Republicans and President Donald Trump were celebrating the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a $3.4 trillion mega-bill that was supposed to be the centerpiece of the GOP’s midterm campaign.
Flash forward to today.
Trump is openly warring with GOP senators and grinding their legislative agenda to a halt. The president rarely talks about the tax-cut bill he helped name and pass. Some Senate Republicans are even questioning whether Trump is intentionally trying to blow up his party’s majorities in both chambers.
Trump is holding pretty much everything hostage over a bill that has almost no chance of passing unless the Senate changes its own rules — the SAVE America Act. On Wednesday morning, Trump abruptly canceled the signing ceremony for a popular bipartisan housing bill his own administration officials had been touting, all because of Senate Republicans’ inability to pass the SAVE America Act.
Trump is a weakened and diminished figure in Washington, even before the true economic and geopolitical costs of his failed war have become widely understood. As I discussed with Katie Phang yesterday there is also growing reason to believe his health is far worse than the regime has let on, which perhaps explains why we are starting to see them testing out Vance in more ambitious roles. Listen to Rep. Ted Lieu talk about these new concerns about Trump’s health in a press conference yesterday:
Democrats Have Been Winning And Overperforming In Elections Of All Kinds All Across The Country, The House Is Likely To Flip, The Senate Is - Remarkably - In Play - Despite Callais and their rancid redistricting efforts we are still favored to take back the House, and remarkably we have a legit chance of flipping the Senate too. Here’s the latest generic ballot average from FiftyPlusOne. We’ve gained 9 points since early 2025. It’s encouraging stuff peeps:
Here’s my latest Senate polling round up. We are running competitive races in deep red territory. This too is encouraging stuff.
While much of the news from Tuesday’s elections has been about Mamdani’s growing political muscle, perhaps the most important news is that the outcomes of our primaries in NY-17 and UT-1 may very well translate into two House seats flipping this November - no small thing my friends. Here is what I wrote yesterday about Tuesday’s results:
We keep moving further into the next Democratic Party, one that will be different - and hopefully better - than what came before. We should not be so arrogant to know what is best for us and should welcome experimentation and innovation in our family, even if feels new and uncomfortable. We should welcome debates inside our family, not run from them.
Job One remains winning as many of the competitive Senate and House races across the country, and flipping both chambers this November. These races are being fought out almost entirely in states and districts Trump won in 2024, in some cases by 13-15 points, and are a far cry from the +30 Dem districts the Mamdani coalition won last night in NYC. We need to embrace the rainbow here as I call it, and do everything we can to run candidates who fit their states and district - and who can win. So what works in Iowa and Wisconsin may not be what works in Brooklyn but as Katie and I discuss the universal thing we are finding in all these disparate races is that voters are looking for leaders willing to fight for them and strong enough to deliver.
We also spent time last night talking about the emergence of a new politics of virtue this election cycle. Simply, that virtue - a mix of strength, courage, righteousness - has emerged in the positioning and rhetoric of our candidates as a powerful antidote to Trump’s betrayal, cowardice, corruption, and moral turpitude. It’s a very welcome development, and a piece of this new Democratic Party we are forging, together.
A Desperate Trump Is Going To Do Whatever It Takes To Win This Fall And Prevent A Peaceful Transfer Of Power In January - While we had very consequential wins in the courts this week Trump’s manic efforts to pass the SAVE Act and the new revelations that he’s working very hard to break the Post Office are further confirmations that Trump has now decided that the only way he can now prevent us from gaining power next January is through illicit efforts - like his alliance with Russia in 2016, his years of attacks on the integrity of the 2020 election, and his attempted coup on January 6th. We are here now, and must prepare.
As Marc Elias told us when he came to visit recently the single most important thing we can do to prevent their illicit tactics from being successful is to win the election by as large a margin of possible. As Maygar did in Hungary. So Job One is our work together to help our 20-30-40 top candidates for the Senate and House win. That’s where our focus must continue to lie. Next, I’ve launched what I call an Evolving Battlefield Project to help us better understand what they are doing. Third, one thing I hope all of us work to promote is the necessity of Voting Early, something we will be talking about much more in the days ahead.
That’s what we talked about last night everyone. Watch the video when you can. Hit the like button here so more will see it. Share it with others, and yes, now, my friends…..
It’s Time Get To Work!!!!!
Some Things To Call Congress About This Week
Yes to making American oligarchs pay for Trump’s failed Iran war - not every day Americans
Yes to the Ukraine Support Act, get it passed through the Senate and to the President’s desk
No to the ballroom, the Arch, the gilded statues, the slush fund, the corruption, self-enrichment……
hell no to Todd Blanche as Attorney General, and yes to very tough questioning of the new DNI nominee, Jay Clayton
Hell hell no to the new OMB regs that will destroy government-funded science in America. Join the new Stand Up For Science campaign to Stop Vought. Save Science today.
Help Make Hopium Stronger, Bigger, Better
A big thank you to everyone who has become a paid subscriber in recent days. We’ve signed up 175 new people, strong progress towards our goal of 500 by July 4th. Take 10% off a paid annual Hopium subscription today and help make our Independence Day membership sale and drive a success. Follow the link for group and gift subscriptions too!
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
(Please be patient as we overhaul and update this section)
Supporting Battleground Candidates For The House and Senate
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $796,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $111,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!
Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $21,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch my wonderful new interview with Josh Turek
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $106,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
James Talarico For Texas - $92,100 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Graham Platner For Maine Senate - $3,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer
Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $124,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Expansion States
Winning Iowa - $8,100 raised, $100,000 goal - We’ve also set up a new Winning Iowa campaign that splits a contribution three ways - to Turek, to Gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart | Watch my new interview with our great gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand
Winning Ohio - $163,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $601,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! and use the link to make contributions to any of the state parties directly | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds.
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Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
