Senator Merkley Speaks Out Against Trump's Escalating Authoritarianism, Notes On The GOP's Ongoing Budget Fiasco, Winning The November Elections

13 House Republicans - "Allowing these tax credits to lapse without a clear path forward would risk real harm to those we represent"

Morning all. A reminder that Job 1 for the next two weeks is to be doing everything we can to win the November elections. If you don’t have a local race to support please consider donating or volunteering for our three must wins - CA Prop 50, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. You can make calls and text to help drive turnout in these critical campaigns wherever you live. And for those of you in places with early voting please vote early, on Day 1, if you can. For when you vote early our campaigns take you off their GOTV rolls and move on to lower propensity voters, which drives up our overall turnout and makes it more likely we win. Do not wait until Election Day if voting early is an option for you. Vote early everyone!

Three new polls have been released in the Virginia Governors’ race:

• Spanberger 55% Earle-Sears 42% (+13) State Navigate

• Spanberger 53% Earle-Sears 43% (+10) Clarity Campaigns/DAGA

• Spanberger 49% Earle-Sears 42% (+7) VCU

Note that Earle-Sears is at 42%-43% in all three. Ugly stuff this close to the election. Base not coming home for her.

A reminder of the last four independent polls in New Jersey:

• Sherrill 50% Ciattarelli 45% (+5) Rutgers/Eagleton

• Sherrill 52% Ciattarelli 45% (+7) FDU

• Sherrill 50% Ciattarelli 45% (+5) Fox News

• Sherrill 51% Ciattarelli 44% (+7) Quinnipiac

Again, note how consistent the data is here. Polling has been remarkable stable in this race for weeks now. If we close strong we can and should win here.

The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) has released a comprehensive new national poll that is well worth reviewing. It has Trump clocking in at 42% approve, 56% disapprove (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Note how similar this data is to other recent independent polls:

• 37%-61% (-24) AP-NORC

• 37%-60% (-23) ARG

• 39%-56% (-17) Econ/YouGov

• 42%-58% (-16) CBS

• 42%-56% (-14) Ipsos/Reuters

• 42%-56% (-14) PRRI

• 40%-54% (-14) Quinnipiac

• 41%-54% (-13) Gallup

• 43%-55% (-12) Navigator

This new poll is full of interesting data but this bit stood out - 56% of voters believe Trump is a dangerous dictator. Only 41% view him as a “strong” leader. It’s 65% dangerous dictator, 31% strong leader with independents.

This data confirms that Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley has the public behind him in his all night speech on the Senate floor, still going as we go to press, designed to warn his fellow Americans that “AUTHORITARIAN IS HERE NOW.” Here’s a clip from Morning Joe:

Oregonians here should call and thank Senator Merkley for stepping up at this critical time. We need much, much more of what the Senator is doing, and much much more like this greeting a New Yorker gave ICE in Lower Manhattan yesterday:

And more of this too - Governors and AGs rallying against Trump’s invasion of our cities. A release from WA State AG Nick Brown:

The U.S. Supreme Court should deny the Trump administration’s request to stay a lower court order blocking an illegal National Guard deployment to Chicago, Attorney General Nick Brown says in an amicus brief he co-led with 24 attorneys general and governors in support of Illinois and the City of Chicago’s lawsuit.

Brown and the coalition argue the president’s actions break the law and threaten one of America’s most important principles – that the military must remain under civilian control – while also threatening state sovereignty and core constitutional principles of federalism. The brief is similar to those filed by Brown and other AGs in separate states where Trump has tried to deploy the Guard for dubious reasons against the wishes of local and state leaders.

“Trump has repeatedly made up excuses to use the military against Americans, in violation of our country’s founding principles and our constitutional rights,” Brown said. “The U.S. military exists to serve the people, not the president’s authoritarianism.”

Earlier this month, Brown joined a coalition of 24 attorneys general and governors in filing a similar amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in support of Illinois against President Trump’s unlawful deployment of the National Guard without approval from the state’s governor. The court allowed the president to proceed with placing National Guard troops under federal control but refused to let him proceed with deploying those troops.

The amicus brief is co-led by Brown and the attorney general of Maryland. Others joining include the attorneys general of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawai‘i, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin. The governors of Kansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania also joined the filing.

Notes On The Illiberal Gutting Of The Legislative Branch And The Ongoing Budget Fiasco - 13 House Republicans Call For The ACA Subsidies To Be Restored - From Politico:

Thirteen vulnerable Republicans are urging Speaker Mike Johnson to “immediately turn our focus” to extending Obamacare subsidies after the government reopens.

The group, led by GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, laid out its case Tuesday in a new letter to Johnson, reminding him that millions of Americans face skyrocketing health insurance premiums as a result of the expiration of the subsidies at the end of the year.

………

“Allowing these tax credits to lapse without a clear path forward would risk real harm to those we represent,” wrote the lawmakers. “Our Conference and President Trump have been clear that we will not take healthcare away from families who depend on it.”

……...

House GOP leaders are engaged in early, informal conversations with White House officials about potential changes, too. Still, many hard-liners remain dug in against any extension, which Republicans across the political spectrum caution would be a political mistake heading into the midterms.

……..

But with no resolution in sight to the 21-day government funding standoff between the two parties, the letter signals mounting GOP anxiety about the issue as Nov. 1 fast approaches. That’s the date for open enrollment in plans under the Affordable Care Act, at which point it might be too late to avoid massive premium hikes.

State insurance officials have warned that an expectation that the enhanced tax credits will expire has already been baked into updated insurance rates, and it will be difficult to update those rates if Congress passes an extension in November or December.

So, to be clear - this is 13 House Republicans advocating rolling back a central plank of Trump’s agenda and a central plank of the final Republican budget this year (if they ever get around to creating one). As I discussed in my recent post, Will Republicans Ever Pass A Budget This Year?, I am very, very skeptical that Thune and Johnson can rally their conferences behind Trump’s current agenda of inflationary tariffs/higher prices, the assault on health care and our public health, higher electricity costs through the gutting of clean energy subsidies, the ICE expansion and the escalating endangering of our rights and liberties, and the abandonment of Ukraine and our European allies. The big ugly bill was incredibly unpopular and has done enormous harm to the country. Their final budget will be far worse; will include many things Rs have not voted on yet; is likely to be even more unpopular; Trump is far more unpopular than he was this summer, and Dems are likely to have successful elections this November; and this final bill will force Republicans to once again vote on and own a whole series of actions that will do material harm to their constituents and the country next year. This final year end budget, whenever it comes, is almost certainly going to be the most unpopular and destructive legislation in modern American history.

And I am just not convinced vulnerable Republicans are going to vote for it. This letter is a sign of the discomfort that exists inside the Republican conference about having to “defend the indefensible” next year. Here is how our friend Dr. Rob Shapiro put it in the Washington Monthly a few days ago:

In either event, today’s shutdown is the opening act or what boxing fans call the undercard—the bout that precedes the main event. The dispute concerns the Democrats’ drive to use the Continuing Resolution to undo Republicans’ directive in their One Big Beautiful (sic) Bill to slash Obamacare premium subsidies for tens of millions of Americans. But the Continuing Resolution provides only short-term federal funding while Congress struggles with the 2026 federal budget. That’s the main event.

Very soon, the brawl over Trump’s 2026 budget will dwarf today’s skirmish. It’s loaded with political third rails that will be as fearsome to many congressional Republicans as the president’s personal threats to keep them in line. With their narrow majorities, how many GOP representatives and senators will vote for policies their constituents reject?

That looming debate will force virtually all of them to support publicly, one by one, the acutely unpopular tariffs Trump needs for his revenues; vast new funding for his far-reaching and even less popular ICE operations to violently arrest and summarily deport millions of law-abiding immigrants and deploy U.S. soldiers and marines to American cities; and carry out the president’s deep and wildly unpopular cuts to Medicaid and research and treatments for diabetes, Parkinson’s, and cancer. As I wrote in these pages three months ago, voting for the final passage of his 2026 budget will also endorse five years of budget deficits projected to nearly equal all U.S. annual private savings.

Given these multiple landmines, the political insider Simon Rosenberg wrote this week, “Under our current rules, passing a budget requires 60 votes in the Senate, all 53 Republicans and 7 Democrats, and a simple majority in the House. Do we think these guys can somehow strike a deal that 7 Democrats, all Congressional Rs, and Trump can agree to?”

And that’s without considering the likely damage to Trump’s political leverage from the pending release of Jeffrey Epstein files. Securing the votes he needs for his budget will make today’s struggle over the Continuing Resolution seem like child’s play.

Last night Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed a lawsuit to force Mike Johnson to seat Adelita Grijalva. From NBC News:

“Speaker Mike Johnson is actively stripping the people of Arizona of one of their seats in Congress and disenfranchising the voters of Arizona’s seventh Congressional district in the process,” Mayes said in a statement. “By blocking Adelita Grijalva from taking her rightful oath of office, he is subjecting Arizona’s seventh Congressional district to taxation without representation. I will not allow Arizonans to be silenced or treated as second-class citizens in their own democracy.”

Be sure to watch my timely new interview with Rep. Grijalva for more.

To go deeper in all this listen to my new podcast with Greg Sargent, or watch my new conversations with Lincoln Square’s Stuart Stevens, Endless Urgency’s Mike Nellis and a new Deep State Radio hosted one with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan. Hopium paid subscribers get together tonight at 7pm ET - register here to join us.

Now……

Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $118k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $216k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $45k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $85k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $221k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $166,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart, Maine Chair Charlie Dingman, and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:

1. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

2. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities

3. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

4. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Please include reports of voting early and consider sending photos of your completed ballot or or your “I’ve voted” sticker to community@hopiumchronicles.com.

Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.

We do the work to make it so - Simon