It certainly seemed odd with its numbers, but not so odd with its direction. It did, in fact, release numbers for registered voters, with almost exactly the same result, Trump beating Biden by 6%.
In talking with Biden voters - without regard to any of the polls - there appears to be two interrelated reasons they are uneasy with him: the economy and his Carteresque appearance of weakness. They are right about the economy. They are wrong about “weakness”. But that's what’s out there, and they had better correct it soon.
Thank you! Needed to read this today. Having flashbacks to 2022 when everything I was reading was telling me abortion and democracy were no longer issues that mattered in swing states and the red wave was a predetermined fact (except for a very few like you Tom Bonier and Rachel Bitecofer). This election will be difficult, let’s not make it harder.
Thanks for the clarification (which I had assumed was the case but it was nervous-making). Also good to know we can still trust 538. I still don't want to look at any snapshot this far out. And I am still nervous about a very tired looking low energy Biden in press briefing today. I truly fear he cannot last six more years at this rate. And I'm one of his big fans.
-On another note, yesterday, you requested that readers/viewers not share your slides. I totally understand and I'm so sorry that this didn't occur to me before. I did share some before, on Facebook with friends, and I will not do that again. I am feeling so apologetic. I am so sorry. I absolutely appreciate how many hours, years of work have gone in to what shows up now as simple, straightforward information. (While I will not do this again until or unless you authorize it, I must say that they were absolutely well received.) Today I did share the polling notes with my sibs and sibs in law. I will also make an additional donation and keep in mind sending more friends and family to your site. Thank you for bringing that out.
Recently, Charlie Sykes had R.B. Stoddard (Real Clear Politics writer) on his podcast. She’s been on MSNBC at times and Sykes had her on podcasts that I first heard around 2018. Considered her Ind./Repub., sharp and not crazy! At beginning of podcast last week, she profusely apologized to Charlie for not being able to be on podcast the previous day, as she was so shocked and stunned b/c Joe Biden had just said he’s running again and she needed time to get herself together! She could not believe he’s running again, b/c everyone knows he’s really “gone down” and is so so slow and she’s just shocked! My paraphrasing is not far off. Had no idea Real Clear Politics had gone crazy-right wing. Helpful you cleared that up.
Only a day or two before 2022 midterms, polling guy named Wasserman said on cable he believed Dems were going to lose 30 house seats.
I spent years constructing and conducting surveys. I have become disillusioned with the value of surveys because of many of the issues raised in this article. A good survey is so much more than asking questions and getting answers. Thank you.
On cue, many Democrats, the mainstream media, and random pundits are wringing their hands because they "see" the "inevitable" loss of the 2024 election based on ONE poll 18 months before the actual election. One thing I've always remembered is that Biden's numbers are about the same for the third year of every recent POTUS' first term going back to Reagan. Simon is absolutely correct - a poll is simply a snapshot, and we need to focus on the hard work between now and November 2024.
It came to me while reading Charles Blow's editorial, "The Panic over Biden's Age is Manufactured," that part of being loud is not just to brag about Dem successes, but to create a narrative about Republicans that leads to polling and news cycles, I suggest that the counterpoint to "Is Biden too old?" is "Are Republicans too extreme to govern our country?"
I have seen people talk about polling and who gets polled and so on, all over social media. But what nobody seems to discuss, and what, as I worked on my PhD I discovered, is that as important as the polling itself is (who is polled, how the demographics are determined, etc) is the weighting of the results. A tiny change in the weighting algorithm can make an enormous difference in the interpreted results. I am firmly convinced that several of these polling firms tweak the weighting of their results to produce an outcome that is attractive to the sponsor of the polls. That could be, in the case of a media outlet, to gain viewers. It could be, in the case of an organization, to attempt to shape public attitudes or to encourage certain groups and discourage others. The thing is, this far from an election, even reputable pollsters are safe to use an algorithm that gives a result that brings attention to them, knowing that as the election draws closer they can use a more representative weighting algorithm. Then when the results come in they claim accuracy. Rasmussen has been doing this for ages. Since the weighting algorithms are considered proprietary, we don't have access to analyze them. This far ahead of the election, handle polls with care.
Amen. And thank you.
Robert Hubbell referenced the Time article today:⬇️
Pollster Cornel Belcher commented “The poll really is trash, and I don’t say that lightly because I’ve had respect for their polling in the past.”
https://time.com/6278254/polls-trump-biden-2024/
It certainly seemed odd with its numbers, but not so odd with its direction. It did, in fact, release numbers for registered voters, with almost exactly the same result, Trump beating Biden by 6%.
In talking with Biden voters - without regard to any of the polls - there appears to be two interrelated reasons they are uneasy with him: the economy and his Carteresque appearance of weakness. They are right about the economy. They are wrong about “weakness”. But that's what’s out there, and they had better correct it soon.
Thank you! Needed to read this today. Having flashbacks to 2022 when everything I was reading was telling me abortion and democracy were no longer issues that mattered in swing states and the red wave was a predetermined fact (except for a very few like you Tom Bonier and Rachel Bitecofer). This election will be difficult, let’s not make it harder.
Thanks for the clarification (which I had assumed was the case but it was nervous-making). Also good to know we can still trust 538. I still don't want to look at any snapshot this far out. And I am still nervous about a very tired looking low energy Biden in press briefing today. I truly fear he cannot last six more years at this rate. And I'm one of his big fans.
I just wanted to say "thanks" for what you do! I'm learning alot.
Absolutely terrific. So illuminating. Thank you.
-On another note, yesterday, you requested that readers/viewers not share your slides. I totally understand and I'm so sorry that this didn't occur to me before. I did share some before, on Facebook with friends, and I will not do that again. I am feeling so apologetic. I am so sorry. I absolutely appreciate how many hours, years of work have gone in to what shows up now as simple, straightforward information. (While I will not do this again until or unless you authorize it, I must say that they were absolutely well received.) Today I did share the polling notes with my sibs and sibs in law. I will also make an additional donation and keep in mind sending more friends and family to your site. Thank you for bringing that out.
Thank you Simon. Your reporting is aiding the avoidance of a complete meltdown on my end.
Recently, Charlie Sykes had R.B. Stoddard (Real Clear Politics writer) on his podcast. She’s been on MSNBC at times and Sykes had her on podcasts that I first heard around 2018. Considered her Ind./Repub., sharp and not crazy! At beginning of podcast last week, she profusely apologized to Charlie for not being able to be on podcast the previous day, as she was so shocked and stunned b/c Joe Biden had just said he’s running again and she needed time to get herself together! She could not believe he’s running again, b/c everyone knows he’s really “gone down” and is so so slow and she’s just shocked! My paraphrasing is not far off. Had no idea Real Clear Politics had gone crazy-right wing. Helpful you cleared that up.
Only a day or two before 2022 midterms, polling guy named Wasserman said on cable he believed Dems were going to lose 30 house seats.
Thank you Simon is a clearly flawed poll, way early and meaning negligible.
The problem/challenge is the media and pundits (particular former Rs) are using it to:
• say Biden should not run
• push for others to run and have a real primary
• promote R funded no labels which is nothing more than a way to draw votes from Dems
• bring up the scary black women, Harris, who will be ‘actual’ president
• continue to bash Harris who’s accomplishments as VP are far better than average; though media continues to ignore her
So as an individual I speak out to my network, correct false narrative on socials when I see it, wrote a LTTE to WaPo
But it doesn’t seem enough in the face of right wing propaganda and Dems who fall for it 2nd support the negative narrative.
I spent years constructing and conducting surveys. I have become disillusioned with the value of surveys because of many of the issues raised in this article. A good survey is so much more than asking questions and getting answers. Thank you.
On cue, many Democrats, the mainstream media, and random pundits are wringing their hands because they "see" the "inevitable" loss of the 2024 election based on ONE poll 18 months before the actual election. One thing I've always remembered is that Biden's numbers are about the same for the third year of every recent POTUS' first term going back to Reagan. Simon is absolutely correct - a poll is simply a snapshot, and we need to focus on the hard work between now and November 2024.
It came to me while reading Charles Blow's editorial, "The Panic over Biden's Age is Manufactured," that part of being loud is not just to brag about Dem successes, but to create a narrative about Republicans that leads to polling and news cycles, I suggest that the counterpoint to "Is Biden too old?" is "Are Republicans too extreme to govern our country?"
I have seen people talk about polling and who gets polled and so on, all over social media. But what nobody seems to discuss, and what, as I worked on my PhD I discovered, is that as important as the polling itself is (who is polled, how the demographics are determined, etc) is the weighting of the results. A tiny change in the weighting algorithm can make an enormous difference in the interpreted results. I am firmly convinced that several of these polling firms tweak the weighting of their results to produce an outcome that is attractive to the sponsor of the polls. That could be, in the case of a media outlet, to gain viewers. It could be, in the case of an organization, to attempt to shape public attitudes or to encourage certain groups and discourage others. The thing is, this far from an election, even reputable pollsters are safe to use an algorithm that gives a result that brings attention to them, knowing that as the election draws closer they can use a more representative weighting algorithm. Then when the results come in they claim accuracy. Rasmussen has been doing this for ages. Since the weighting algorithms are considered proprietary, we don't have access to analyze them. This far ahead of the election, handle polls with care.