I wasn't referring to you when I said ignore the polls and pundits, lol. But it is true that Biden cannot be forced off the ticket unless a huge swath of delegates vote for someone else, which I hardly think would happen.
Can you please point out what was false or misleading? Thanks.
Topline: President Biden is 11 points ahead of Donald Trump in the first ever SoCal Research Poll of New York. Vice President Harris performs exactly the same, leading by a 52-41 margin.
Methodology Statement: The On Point Politics/SoCal Research Empire State poll was
conducted online using the Pollfish panel starting on July 18, 2024 and finishing on the 19th. (Recent!)
Respondents were discarded if they were not registered to vote. The poll has a sample size of 500 and a +/-4.4% margin of error. It is important to note margin of error does not account for changes in vote intention, undecided voters, or a non-representative sample.
Trump was running from FL in 2020, but NY in 2016. He runs from Florida in 2024. NY lost a seat from 29 to 28 electoral votes in 2024. NY cost us the House in 2022. We must recover those seats. I am not sure it is viable to compare actual election results from 3.75 years ago against a current poll. Too much water has gone under the bridge and new motivations drive us.
They’ve also not done anything to help our candidate Paula Collins against Stefanik at least according to Collins.
Come on, NY Dems, my home state. I know there are flippable seats to focus on, but throw her a lifeline. (If I am incorrect, do tell me. No yelling required,)
Can you enlighten us as to which House seats from the Left Coast should have been winnable and what happened? Complacency, lack of funding/investment, or something else?
Here is an excerpt from an article from AEI dated 12/2/2022:
Democrats came up short in six competitive House seats across California. Each seat was eminently winnable: Biden carried five of six, including three by double digits. In the 22nd District (Biden +13), Republican David Valadao survived by four points. Though Valadao’s vote to impeach Trump certainly helped him in the blue-leaning district, astoundingly low Democratic turnout in majority-Hispanic counties carried him to victory. While California hit 61.5 percent of 2020 turnout, the 22nd District cast only 53.6 percent of its 2020 total. In the 13th District (Biden +11), turnout reached just 57.6 percent of 2020. Republican John Duarte is poised to win by less than half a point. In northern Los Angeles County, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (for the third time)—again aided by low turnout.
Had Democrats carried CA-22, CA-13, and CA-27, along with a couple Biden-won districts in Orange County, Nancy Pelosi could have remained Speaker of the House. In a strangely regional midterm, gubernatorial performance often played an important role in down-ballot results. Republicans seized their opportunity in Florida and New York. California Democrats missed theirs.
Blue states—including California and New York—haven’t seen the same level of investment as some of the traditional battlegrounds, and we’re proud to be changing that. We're focusing on CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22, where Biden won big in 2020 but Dems lost by small margins in the 2022 midterms. In CA-13, for example, Democrats lost by fewer than 600 votes.
A Newsweek article I just read said FL is more likely than not going to be a tough race for the GQP. It said recent polling (Fox13/Insider) indicates that Florida women are more for Biden than Trump - 47.8% Biden to 44.4% Trump. It also said that if Kamala takes over for Joe, then they lose those voters (44.4% still for Trump, but only 44.1% for Kamala) and Trump's lead across all voters grew 10% with Harris as the nominee (49% to 39%). Still Ridin' wit Biden, onward to 11/5 victory up and down the ballot! VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024 💙
This doesn't make a lot of sense. Women are presumably for Biden because of the GOP assault on reproductive rights.
Harris has been the face of the administration and the campaign on reproductive rights and there's no where else that I've seen polling showing Harris doing worse than Biden, let alone by almost 4%.
I'm going to guess that the numbers for men are substantially worse such that putting the 2 together still make FL a tall order for our ticket.
It could be that less familiarity hurts Harris. Also, as I said yesterday, the main negative thing people say about Kamala is that she’s uncharismatic. I don’t see it personally, but I’ve encountered it a lot.
In the event that she takes over, I feel like this is something that might change as there’s more media focus on her, although it could also go the opposite direction. This is sort of what I’ve been saying; even Harris is not the silver bullet so many want her to be, and would face her own substantial challenges. Would those challenges be more surmountable than Biden’s? Maybe, maybe not, who knows. I just suspect if Kamala becomes the nominee, we’re going to quickly find that this race is not actually as simple as just being about Biden’s age.
Also, I’d be very careful about assuming that women and black voters will break for Kamala just because she’s a black woman. This is sort of like the assumption the DNC has often made that minorities will just always vote for them without fail, without any work, an assumption that has come under question more recently (including by Kamala Harris herself, ironically).
Basically, I don’t think we should assume identity politics is enough to win an election, and a lot of other minority voters might feel similarly to me (I’m gay and a woman, thus highly vulnerable if Trump wins), which is that changing the ticket without *very* careful thought being put into it might come with its own set of problems. It may have nothing to do with Harris herself.
I don’t actually know how accurate the above-referenced poll is, like I’ve said a lot today, polls show all kinds of things and are not the ineffable word of God, I’m just offering possible reasons why said poll *might* be accurate.
In any event, there has *definitely* been polling showing Harris doing worse than Biden. Less so lately, but it is out there, it’s the crux of a lot of the “step aside, Joe” people’s (imho, very foolish) argument that we need some other dark horse candidate who is neither Biden nor Harris (even all the suggested candidates also tend to poll pretty weakly).
Less familiarity typically results in higher undecided numbers. If that's where the difference is, then that would be reasonable, though Harris has been the Vice President for 3.5 years, a bit hard to imagine people don't know who she is.
Having better poll numbers now than earlier in the year seems like a positive indicator for more upside potential than down.
Given the amount of negative partisanship we are dealing with on both sides, I doubt anyone familiar with today's politics thinks any Democratic candidate could do more than 3 or 4, 5 points at the outside, better than Biden, but 3 points is probably the difference between winning and losing.
shows multiple other potential candidates polling an average of +3% (with Harris at +2%) compared to Biden. These are effectively generic Democrat vs. Trump polling numbers. IMO, Harris' numbers are pretty solid given her name recognition, the others a crap shoot. I've never played the craps table, wouldn't start now.
Ver insightful comment. Biden is tried and tested against the worst of Republican and Fox News attacks. Kamala Harris is not. And as Dr Alan Lichtman keeps saying, polls are not great predictors of election outcomes. However, Lichtman argues Harris' prospects improve if Biden steps down and she becomes President. Incumbency matters, and is a boon to national name recognition. However, as AOC said today, some senior Democrats want to replace both Biden and Harris which would be a disaster. (Perhaps Barrack wants Michelle to run? Or does Nancy prefer Gavin?) A Dem needs to run as President to optimize the likelihood of success. Which means the choice is only between Biden and Harris, who are the only ones able to access campaign funds they've already raised.
Need honesty here. Biden ahead in NY by 11 means he is underperforming 2020 by more than 10 pts, and that foretells a landslide we have not seen since Reagan.
Honestly, presumptive opinions are many. Just give me the facts, ma’am. Mutually exclusive events constrained by the state borders. I see the brighter side. Factually, this is the most recent poll; it shows the widest Biden margin I can see nationwide; and 2024 presents us with a brand new battleground where women are rightfully pissed.
The poll was posted as a positive data point. It’s not. It’s the exact opposite. I was pointing out how so.
We have to be realistic here. The goal is to win and given the stakes, we should be willing to do whatever it takes to win. To do this, we have to be realistic. Treating negative polls as somehow positive subverts those efforts.
It is not a negative poll, it is just a state poll. There is no leaping. Elections with years between them are mutually exclusive. Polls and elections are two different things, so why try to compare them 4 years apart. Things have changed a whole lot.
That's true to some extent, but professionals routinely compare election numbers across cycles and I'd be hard pressed to find one that would look at -12 delta from 2020 to 2024 as anything other than a bright red flashing light.
I disagree. No professional would compare poll numbers from just yesterday with Dobbs and actual election vote numbers from 3.75 years ago with Roe v. Wade. What would be the point of that?
It’s a single isolated poll, a pretty small sample, and who knows what is going on with the methodology there. Maybe it’s something to watch, and see if it becomes part of a pattern specific to NY, but as of right now I don’t think much of anything, good or bad, can be concluded from this one poll.
Simon has strongly cautioned in the past about reading too much into isolated bits of data like this.
It’s also a sample of just 500 people, who knows if they’re even from all over the state, or just from largely one area.
Basically, it probably indicates very little at all in terms of larger trends. Who knows how an equivalent sample from the same areas at this time in 2020 would even look.
It is a new poll format. On Point / So Cal research is doing very fast small polls in 2 days. Narrow focus at state but sometimes national. 500-600 person samples. 538 has bought into the method used. It is okay by me, just for a Quick Look.
It’s not a negative data point - a double digit lead is still a double digit lead. Further, trying to extrapolate a poll of one state to other states or nationwide really does not make sense. You’re assuming that this poll means Biden is down 9-10 points everywhere from 2020 and that’s a big leap. A big leap polls in other states are not showing nor is national polling.
I think the argument is that an equivalent sample for NY at this time in 2020 would’ve been higher, thus indicating a larger pattern of Biden doing worse.
However, I have not actually seen the data from an equivalent sample from NY at this time in 2020, so this is probably meaningless. I’ve yet to see evidence that this one poll is part of a larger pattern, which imo is the only way that polls can be truly meaningful. And yes, I would absolutely still be saying this if a single poll seemed to show Biden doing way *better* in NY compared to 2020.
Thank you for your wonderful news. Whatever happens in the leadership of the Democratic Party, I hope that we can all pivot and move ahead in unison.
Joe Won! No one has a right to tell you (or Joe) how you feel, or what is possible.
Elections are all about impressions. I hope Democratic leaders do not continue to publicly weaken our elected candidate. If they see a problem, just find a solution, quietly. But Joe is in it to win it!
Interesting. I’m going to temper things a bit here, though, by bringing up the same thing that I did in the face of past polls showing Trump suddenly ahead by vast margins; this poll is so different from all others recently, that I’m wary of drawing any conclusions from it alone (especially since it’s a fairly small sample size and only one, very left-leaning state). Now, as always, if more polling comes out showing Biden ahead by similarly large margins, that’s different.
It *is* worth noting that Biden has been pretty consistently ahead in polls that specifically control for registered vs. non-registered and likely vs. non-likely voters throughout the year, or at the very least has always done better in those compared to general opinion polls. So that’s something.
Friends, thanks for appreciating my voter pitch yesterday. One question I received was how to deliver the same pitch with more positive subjects. Fear can sometimes be a paralyzer, not a mover. Here is my response:
We do that with minor actions that make people feel the government is working for them. In my neighborhood, one of Biden's policies that got people excited was the Affordable Connectivity Program. Children were excited about it because they could stream unlimitedly without parents having to share their internet through their phones, which can be burdensome and costly. Unfortunately, the Republican Congress cut the funding, and it expired. We need to talk about these policy successes and how to make them permanent. That's how you fuel hope!
Thank you so much for coming to see us in North Carolina! It was wonderful to meet you. We believe in Anderson, and we are working so hard to flip the state blue. Thanks to everyone in the Hopium community who are helping us, we won’t let you down!
Thank you Donna. Was great to meet you last night. It's great to be here in Raleigh, and I believe in Anderson and all of you. In it to win it baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We have a binary decision ahead with only four months left. I respect your choice. I love Harris. But I see the losing end of any of this is dire like never before.
I am a very black and white thinker. The election is about TWO choices. Our leaders are falling into trmp's hands with this public conversation, and losing the election for us all no matter WHO our nominee is.
Elections are all about impressions, but Dem leaders are generating chaos, publicly insulting our candidate (currently OUR CHOICE). We want voters to view us as not being a chaos. We need to unify and pivot.
Remember that many voted (via Democracy) for this fellow, Joe Biden. IMHO, compared to the alternate choice (a dementia filled sociopath fascist). I think we are looking pretty good.
This idea of shopping for someone else is risky beyond words and the consequences are dire beyond words.
No one can know anything at this point. That is true. We do know the dire consequences of OUR division in this crucial moment in history? Yes? Read the book On Tyranny.
People have personal experiences with aging parents, and perhaps they know things that we don't. I'm certain. But timing is everything. With the other guy, it goes beyond aging into maniacal. Nothing is certain with him. We must be the party of calm, however possible.
I know that friends don't look at it as so black and white and mine may not be the popular opinion.
And no one has a right to tell you (or Biden) how you feel or what is possible. I have an invisible disability, so I am sensitive to this.
Today, Joe Biden is our Democratic nominee and NO ONE should act in any way that doesn't promote 100% confidence. Elections are impressions. What impression would someone have looking at our Democratic leaders?
Our Democratic leaders are going on national TV and ensuring that NO Democrat wins in November. Trmp blinked and they flinched and they are whining their way to our demise. They look weak and confused and it MUST STOP.
IN BUSINESS, YOU NEVER IDENTIFY A PROBLEM WITH THE SOLUTION IN HAND. You see why this is. Our leaders have generated chaos and dissension. No matter what the problem is, perceived or otherwise.
Trmp was humiliated at that debate by all his lies.
If Biden wants to continue, we should! Numbers, numbers ... People start to pay attention in the Fall. No one has a right to tell you how you feel or what is possible.
Yes there is, Biden needs to bow out of the race and endorse Harris. He is being very, very selfish and jeopardizing the house for us. Every single candidate down ballot is outpolling him. We will have catastrophic losses if he remains on the ballot. And not just federal candidates, either. The Wisconsin senate, the Pennsylvania senate, the Arizona house and senate, those are all in play with a better candidate.
I believe we will suffer catastrophic losses if Biden DOESN'T remain as the head of our ticket! And calling him "very very selfish" is a meme that anti-Biden forces seem to be testing out.
The 2020 electorate is not there for Biden. We can possibly stitch it back together with Harris. The fact is that the base will rally quickly around her and there will be much more energy than in a Biden redux.
I just don't know about this. Biden has defeated Trump. Is there one person out there who is going to change from Biden to Trump because of a poor debate performance? I don't think so.
I am certain the public declarations make Democrats look confused.
My first fear is losing the Presidency. My second fear is then not regaining the house. If Biden wins, and God forbid something happens with his health, I fear M. Johnson would step into VP role. That would be difficult. He doesn't belong anywhere near power.
You’re falling into basically the same trap here that republicans did when they blamed Obama personally for the Great Recession, or Biden personally for inflation. A presidential administration is not just one person, a presidential *campaign* is not just one person, either. This narrative that Biden is surrounded by sycophants and has some kind of tyrannical hold over his campaign advisors, to the point where they’re all bowing to some kind of senile delusion of Biden’s, and hiding some hidden health problem of his from the world or whatever, is pure conspiracy theorist thinking. If anything, this sounds more like a description of how Trump runs things.
Biden staying is not just some selfish personal decision, he’s surrounded by political experts and other very competent people who are not just going to mindlessly bow to him like some kind of dictator. If they have data showing that Biden cannot win, then I trust they have an exit plan, it’s somewhat possible he’s even planning on stepping aside right now, as obviously Biden is absolutely going to be the nominee, until he absolutely *isn’t* the nominee, but personally, I’m pretty skeptical he’s planning on stepping aside, the only evidence for that seems to be people’s readings of things Obama has said recently, and a supposed internal information leak that so far no one has been able to confirm. Right now, the supposed evidence that Biden is absolutely doomed to lose no matter what is still about 90% vibes, so unless his campaign has access to some data the rest of us don’t, I don’t think things have reached the “point of no return” that would necessitate him stepping aside.
If we want to talk about selfishness, we should talk about all the democrats (House members, donors, and media pundits) who desperately want to pass Harris over in the event Biden steps aside, in favor of some hypothetical dream candidate (who in every case I’ve seen, doesn’t even want the nomination!), ignoring the fact that Harris actually polls better than any of said “dream candidates”, the electoral consequences of passing over a black and Asian woman in favor of a “safe” white (and potentially male) candidate, the fact that throwing away incumbency robs said hypothetical candidate of major advantages (especially so late in the race), and the fact said candidate would probably need to start from square one funding-wise (effectively throwing away hundreds of millions in donations and millions of votes). I feel like a broken record, but I’ve really been trying to drive home just how monstrously self-sabotaging this plan of trying to get some non-Biden, non-Harris candidate this late in the game would actually be, but so many people are so stuck in cloud cuckoo land that they’re still apparently unable to see these risks for what they are.
Listen, we cannot unring that bell on June 27 and Biden just isn't up to this anymore. Furthermore, Biden has been losing altitude since then, and not just with Democrats. Harris and a midwestern governor maybe Andy Bashear can reset this race and help us win. There are so many voters in Gen Z, for instance, that will not vote for Biden but will vote for basically any other Democrat. That can more than offset some attrition with say like white, older voters. A Harris candidacy would reenergize the base. The Biden campaign has zero enthusiasm. Biden is the best president of my lifetime, hands down, but policy and politics are different skills. The man will be lionized if he steps aside now.
Simon, if you have time, can you address what is happening with the NC governor’s race?
I thought Stein had been way ahead in the polls? I cannot believe that many polls are now showing a close race between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson, probably the most unhinged and despicable MAGA gubernatorial candidate of 2024! What happened??
And Simon, is postcarding not seen as effective here in NC? I have a pile of cards and stamps that are itching to be sent for Stein snd our Supreme Court candidate Allison Riggs. Can’t find a volunteer contact for doing that.
I've been writing hundreds of N.C. postcards for them for NC-1. To the line "... vote for Democrats ..." I add the words "at all levels of government."
Hi Colleen- I am new to Hopium but have been following Simon for a while. I read your post about needing volunteers to write postcards. Are you still needing help? Would like to help if you do. I live in CA. but wanting to contribute where I can.
Thanks, Bonnie. I was really asking if Simon (or anyone) could point me to a group writing postcards for Josh Stein (Gov. candidate) and Allison Riggs (Supreme Court). There are groups writing GOTV for NC, which I’ve been writing with and will continue to write with. In addition, I was hoping I could get a lead on how I might focus on these two races.
Sometime in early August I know that Postcards to Swing States will start taking more postcard orders. I think they have completed their NC list but will have others available.
Interesting, good to see such positive fundraising. However, the article also states: "The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the North Carolina governor’s race a “toss-up.”"
My impression is that Cook Political is highly professional and balanced in its analyses. Given how clearly outrageous Mark Robinson is, I guess I was expecting to still see a clear lead by Josh Stein.
It’s my observation but it’s also been discussed by others. Amy Walter took over for Charlie Cook and she has been very anti-Biden from the start. I never found her insights very interesting or astute and was disappointed when she took over. I understand that Charlie got a nice payday from selling the company but sort of wish he had just closed up shop when he retired.
This morning I called and emailed both of my senators and my congressman (all Dems) asking them to urge their fellow Democrat leaders to unite behind the Biden-Harris ticket and avoid the chaos that would be caused by an open primary and would assuredly result in the defeat of democracy in the United States. If you would like to do so as well:
I already looked up contact info for Pelosi, Schiff, and Schumer. Tried to be polite and thank them for all they do and then let them know how I feel about Biden. Also my senator ( Casey) and Jeffries, to thank them for supporting him. And Biden for staying in and honoring his voters. Maybe if they hear from enough of us. I’m writing postcards saying “your vote matters” - I hope these people will listen to their actual voters, instead of questionable polls. Polls are notoriously unreliable predictors of election outcomes.
I haven’t and I won’t stop working to defeat Trump. I believe either Biden or Harris can beat Trump.. I have tried to keep an open mind but I no longer trust the Step Aside Dem elected officials because they won’t say Step Aside for Harris. I just don’t see how the Party unites around anyone but Harris at this late date….not to mention other legal and organizational complexities.
Yeah, a late decision, where not only is Biden pushed aside but the nomination is handed to someone other than Harris, risks ballot access in multiple states. That invites Republican lawsuits, which have already been prepared – with an overwhelming risk that the final arbiter will be the current Supreme Court.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t trust this Alito-Thomas-Roberts-Kavanaugh-Barrett-Gorsuch tinged SCOTUS any farther than I can throw the Orange Buffoon.
Their actions have set up what was the initial beginning of the Holocaust. Absolute immunity IS The Enabling Act on March 23,1933 for Hitler. If you read Project 2025, he threw his adversaries (i.e., Democratic leaders and judges) in prison, he began to build concentration camps (i.e., 10 million people on a list to be rounded up), all disabled, immigrants, non Christian people are insulted, minimized, and made to be gone.
We must take NO risks now. They have read about the Holocaust. Read the book: everyone should read the book On Tyranny and then consider how to win against this group.
Democratic leaders must stop this public chaos. Joe Biden was nominated via the Democratic process. We can't chose any alternate without solid numbers. But Joe's numbers are looking pretty good. People are not doctors so I have trouble understanding how they can predict the future.
Yes, trying to install a nominee other than Harris in the event Biden steps aside is one of the most monumentally stupid things the democrats could do this election. Like if you want Trump’s dream of a landslide victory to come true, this is how you’d do it. Never mind that, last I checked, *none* of the suggested non-Harris candidates (ie Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsome, etc.) have even expressed *any* interested in being the nominee, like not a single one of them.
These people need to get their heads out of la-la land, and fast, at this rate I’m rapidly losing trust in some of these people not to sabotage the convention once the reality of a Biden (or possibly Harris) nomination sinks in. It’s one thing to have conversations, but we’re getting very close to crunch time, Biden’s campaign is still showing zero signs of him stepping aside, and people *need* to recognize how certain potential options would actually be suicidal.
Right now what scares me way more than any negative polling data or anything like that is the very real possibility that a lot of people will throw tantrums and refuse to accept Biden staying in if that’s what happens (and imo, there’s no hard evidence pointing toward any other outcome right now, just supposed unconfirmed information leaks that could’ve just as easily come from a Russian, and *vibes*), or even worse, try to contest Harris getting the nomination if Biden does in fact step aside, definitively alienating black voters, Asian voters, and probably quite a few women as well, as well as sabotaging what most hard data (and history) shows is by far the best chance of winning the election without Biden.
Last night I found out my parents have gotten on the whole “Biden is going to step aside any day now” train, I’ll believe it when I see it, but as of right now I still feel it’s massively unlikely, and really worry about the public reaction from people like this if Biden does end up getting the nomination the start of next month, like expected. I’m personally not a Biden stan, and would be completely fine with him choosing to step aside so long as his people have a solid plan (so not something like an open convention or some experimental mini-primary), but I really worry about a lot of people’s ability to accept reality in the still likely event that he doesn’t, or the event that Harris is the nominee instead.
Many thousands of women voted for the re-election of President Biden and foe Biden’s agenda. Please don’t let the Corporate Media and Elite Megadonors replace him with a candidate that will cater to the priorities at the expense of “we the people”!!!
Jeanne, I want to address this narrative that the concerns about Biden's fitness for office is being driven by Corporate Media and Elite Megadonors. As someone who has been in this business for a long time, worked in corporate media, has raised lots of money from elite megadonors (many years ago) and have worked side by side with many of our leaders of this party I find this narrative and meme to be bordering on a conspiracy theory and deeply divisive. Concerns about Joe Biden's age has been a central part of this election since he announced in 2023. It has been a central concern of all of you when I do my presentations to all of you, always the 1st or 2nd question I get in Q and As. These concerns were magnified by his debate performance, and the questions about whether he was still our best option I think are legitimate and fair, and something that is shared by at least half of all Democrats today. However we got here, and wherever we end up, we must strive to be respectful of the President, party leaders and each other as we all work to unify and go out and win this election this November. Folks, please do everything you can to raise your game and keep your eyes on the prize here and not spend our time making it far harder to for us come together in the coming weeks. I am here in NC working hard as are all the remarkable people I met last night. Let's keep our head down, keep working and resist the urge to take shots at one another - we are all family, we all are in this for the right reasons, and this constant attempt to ascribe nefarious motives to people in our family including people like Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff I think is deeply pernicious, unhelpful and out there. We all the want the same thing and are now having a debate about how best to get there. That's my view. I know not everyone shares it here. But we just must rise above and stay focused on the task at hand as best we can in this time of challenge inside our family. Thank you all.
This is only my opinion and is based on my subscription to the NY Time, Wash Post, my viewing of MSNBC and CNN, and also the following statement published in the Times that has not been retracted
“Tom Strickler, a founder of the Hollywood talent agency WME, said he had recently met in Los Angeles with Senator Martin Heinrich, Democrat of New Mexico.
“If you don’t publicly call for Biden to step aside,” Mr. Strickler said he told Mr. Heinrich’s team on Thursday morning, “you are not getting a dime from me.”
Mr. Strickler said that he had also been planning to give the maximum legal amount in August to each of the seven most vulnerable Democratic Senate candidates, but that as of now, he would not be supporting them because they have not broken with Mr. Biden.
“It’s a message that I’ve encouraged my friends to send as well,” he said. “If you back Biden, you will lose our support. Over and out.”
I just want to say that IT IS COMPLETELY BONKERS to believe a Senator or House Member would be swayed by a single donor. They have to raise tens of millions of dollars from tens of thousands of people. They get donors, constituents, supporters all the time challenging them on stuff. The notion that all this is being driven by elite donors and not legitimate concerns by those responsible for helping us win Senate and House elections is in my view just not real, or not how any of this actually works. These Members and Senators care far far more what their constituents think than what their donors think. We are Democrats. Most of our money comes from all of you. We are not a party of oligarchs. We all just want to win.
Would love your take on AOC's video; i watched most of it and I did not get a good feeling about some of the actors involved, whoever they may be. She actually did say that he colleagues were always talking about their donors, and not so much their constituents.
Hi Simon. Have you heard anything else concrete regarding Biden's intentions with the race? It seems --- due to Biden's longtime friend and former Chief of Staff Ron Klain' assertion to the great Allan Lichtman quoting to him-- "He's staying in. Here's to the keys over fickle polling," --- as well as, Letterman' upcoming big fundraiser for Biden --- that Biden is staying, intending to go all the way and with no intentions of stepping down. Does this sound finalized to you? I fully empathize with keeping steady, focused, with eyes on the prize of keeping both the Senate and flipping the House. However, the top of the ticket matters most as keeping 45 away is of the utmost importance. As you know, I'm fully behind Biden and Harris both as a ticket or Harris at the top. That withstanding, the in-fighting taking place right now makes it very difficult to assert for whom exactly we are rallying behind. Granted, we'll be behind both of them regardless but I do hope quite soon, Biden informs the public one way or another. I still believe he is remaining at the top of the ticket and if so, great! I know he can win against all seeming odds right now. Not to mention, the Biden/Harris ticket itself is more palpable than many give credit. That said, he needs to publicly nip this in the bud in some form of a press conference or nation address to solidify where exactly we're all heading with this campaign. Otherwise, I fear further dysfunction that will frankly cut at the knees, the great work we've been doing. With no clear consensus on leadership out in the forefront --- the voters can't always be trusted to overlook that. Harsh, but realistic.
I’ll be very surprised if Biden actually steps aside, I still see nothing really pointing to it. People (including my parents) seem to think Obama is hinting at it, but I don’t really see it. I’ll accept a decision if it happens (so long as it’s something sane like Biden resigning and Harris taking over as incumbent, but I presume it would be), but I still just don’t really see it happening.
Sure, Biden’s campaign might insist he’s still running until he absolutely isn’t, but if they’re quietly planning an exit behind the scenes right now, they sure are cutting it close, and I feel like the continued public insistences that Biden is still the presumptive nominee would be an odd way to handle this (seems more likely they’d just keep quiet until the announcement, like it seems awfully odd to do so much to reassure donors if Biden is just going to bow out, anyway).
Hasn't Biden informed us all as many times as a strong leader can? Now a strong leader needs to work through the noise, and individuals are responsible for their own behavior, and respect for the leader's decision?
So we need to work twice as hard and give as much as we can to show the corporate billionaires they do not run this country. We have allowed money to play a too important role in our politics and our thinking. We can out vote their millions.
I have so much respect for Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff. I found myself wavering. I am not kidding when I say I have stress whiplash. On a positive note, when I said my friend who is recovering from knee surgery wants to help, John K, a fellow Hopium member sent me 100 stamped cards for her to send out. He even sent them by Priority Mail. My friend and her husband are both retired so this helps so much. Team Work!
Thank you Simon! It’s not supernatural, Biden looks and sounds old. The race is, so far, about his age. We can’t change that. Get Harris in there and a governor and it’s a different ballgame.
Thank you Simon - there are all kinds of stories floating about and I do think that there are definitely forces working hard to divide our party. What is going on now, is not helping matters. For those of us regular citizens, on the ground busting our butts to save our democracy, this drip drip drip of defections and Biden’s insistence that he’s not stepping down is really demoralizing. I’m in deep with my political PAC and it’s tough to stay focused amid so much uncertainty and fear inducing headlines (like the AOC warning of what will come next if Biden does step aside). I just hope that the administration and all the House & Senate members - especially those calling for Biden to step down- understand the downstream impact that this is having on the electorate, on worried Democrats and on all of us who are doing the heavy lifting. With each passing day, the damage from drawing this out becomes greater. Not knowing is the hardest part.
Like everyone, I hope a decision and a clear plan for moving forward will be forthcoming shortly (and I do mean shortly- like in the coming week).
Thank you Simon! My sentiments exactly. There are many highly experienced, reasonable people that have different perspectives about the issue. Reasonable minds can differ. I just want to beat Trump and win up and down the ballot. I’ll be 68 this year and I want hope that I will live to see some of the transformation that can happen if we win this election.
I am in the Biden should bow out camp. I voted for him in the primary because there was no other option and I wanted to show unified support but I didn’t think he should run. None of my adult children thought he should run but they voted for him because again there was no other option.
I could have given him a pass on the debate but his performance since then has been up and down.
Sure we might be able to pull him over the finish line, but given what I’ve seen the last couple weeks I am not confident of his ability to do this effectively for four more years.
I can’t help wondering if the reason he is getting the pushback from some Democrat sensators and congressional members is they question his ability to effectively stay in this for four years. To say he needs to drop out because of “polls” is not as demeaning as saying he doesn’t have what it takes to do one of, if not the, most difficult and stressful jobs on this planet for another 4 years. I believe they all love and respect him, as do I.
That being said, if he stays on the ticket I will continue my efforts and financial contributions to see the Biden/Harris team re-elected.
Thank you Simon for keeping an even keel. I have such strong opinions, it’s helpful to have your clear-eyed perspective on things. Hopium is the right name for this group. I always feel more hope and more energized when I come here. It’ll be ok. We will win this. Thank you.
Thank you for this! I am on board with unity and mutual respect and listen to friends explain their concerns.
It puzzles me, though, why our Dem leader folks do not seem aware of what impact their actions have on our Party as a whole and our upcoming election. Why talk to the media at this time? Who do they serve as leaders when they do this?
I think it’s important to be honest here. It’s not just corporate media. It is the strong majority of Dems who feel it’s time to pass the torch.
The debate was transformative. None of us knew it could have been that bad. None of us. The ABC interview was not much better. Given the evidence we all saw with our eyes, it is absolutely understandable why a strong majority of Dems feel Biden does not have the capacity to maintain the type of vigorous and constant campaign that will be required to change peoples’ mind on his age and defeat Trump.
There are beliefs and then there is data. And the data for Biden at the top of the ticket with various Dem voter groups has been trending downward for sometime, landing at what can only be described as dire levels for an incumbent. This is after Biden outspent Trump 6x in the battleground states the last 3 months. Have to be realistic here.
Ugh, I knew it! I’ve had a weird feeling about that poll since day one, I should’ve looked more closely at the methodology.
As someone who understands statistics somewhat well, I’ve kind of been screaming internally this entire year at all the people treating every single opinion poll that comes out like it’s the word of God absolutely describing objective reality. Many of these polls use way too small of sample sizes to be indicative of anything, online surveys are heavily susceptible to being abused and having false data entered, many have questionable methodologies, and I’m sure the above poll isn’t the first one where most respondents haven’t even completed the damn survey (making the sample much smaller and less useful than it appears on the surface). Keep in mind that the media often cherrypicks polls that support specific narratives; the big thing this year has been polling that is bad for Biden, maybe at first because they were hoping fear would motivate higher voter turnout, but lately I think it’s being bolstered often by people who want Biden to drop out (it’s pretty understandable, I mean if you really truly think Biden cannot win, you’d probably put undue attention on any polling that would support that conclusion, like it’s *not* a conspiracy, everyone is prone to doing this in their own way, we all pay more attention to information that supports pre-existing narratives in our thinking, it’s called “confirmation bias”).
I realized last night that, at age 33, *four* out of nine (counting this one) general election cycles in my lifetime had the winning presidential candidate polling badly into October (2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016; granted, 2000 was a bit of a complicated case), like that’s half of all general elections in my lifetime (not counting this one). And this isn’t even getting into all of the midterm elections this has likely been true of.
Polling isn’t worthless, but it’s *exceedingly* difficult to filter the wheat from the chaff, and is extremely susceptible to being misused to bolster certain narratives. This is part of why I put a fair amount of stock into the pronouncements of people like Allan Lichtman, who have an excellent track record calling elections in the opposite direction that polling indicated.
Basically, just take it all with a large grain of salt, that’s all I’m saying.
EDIT: to be perfectly clear, I don’t know if this is the only poll showing something like this, it very well may not be, in which case this should still be taken seriously as a broader trend, but I do think this shows we should be looking at all opinion polling through a more critical lens.
Anyone who knows me knows that I strongly believe data is juiced/manipulated to support the aggregators case. Regardless of any "data", 4 months before an election is not the time for this discussion. Time to unify, anything else is willfully throwing the election.
I don’t think this always happens, but it *is* all too easy to fudge statistical data to support a specific agenda, and it’s also relatively easy for accidental bias to creep in through various means. There has definitely been some cherrypicking happening with polls this entire election cycle, and in general I think it pays to look very carefully at the sample size and methodology of any poll you find (if it’s even publicly indicated).
Can you give an example? Are you talking about crosstabs for certain demo groups that have a ridiculously low “n?” Simon has highlighted numerous polls focused only on key demo groups of the base that show little to no slippage in support among key groups.
I would offer a few more thoughts -
1) polls have greatly overestimated trump’s support in primaries.
2) non-response bias is very real (no normal people answer calls from unknown numbers or participate in online surveys).
3) the resulting weighting by pollsters based on their hunches is not scientific or data based (see Nate Cohn’s own partial admission of this a few weeks ago).
4) Biden’s numbers are being hurt more by the media hoopla than the almost month old debate performance.
5) because of the hoopla it’s fair that some people don’t believe Biden will be the nominee and therefore don’t express support when polled.
6) when it is clear who the Dem candidate is then this will once again become a clear binary choice election - and that greatly favors us and trump/maga know that and it makes their false bravado all the more fake, thin, and weak.
7) trump is in for a rough fall in the courtrooms - remember his SCOTUS win will result in him getting sentenced in September in NY and likely having a full evidentiary hearing in DC in October - Jack Smith will have about 2 weeks of forcefully and visually reminding the country of what trump wrought on January 6th.
tbh, I think it would be very helpful to see more data from all the people who don’t want Biden to be the nominee (however much of the electorate they truly represent), specifically about whether they are concerned that Biden simply can’t lead anymore (and thus they will not vote for him), or if they don’t want him because they are terrified of Trump and don’t think he could beat him, because in my mind those are two different things, which warrant distinctly different responses from the Biden-Harris campaign. If it is indeed true that there is a general, overall trend toward a lot of people thinking Biden would be dangerously ineffectual in his second term, and thus will not vote for him, that is a big problem that certainly can’t be solved except by Biden bowing out and Harris taking over (I’m not going to seriously entertain a candidate other than Harris, it’s a stupid idea), but if this is mostly people who less fear Biden’s fitness as a leader and more fear that he optically may not be able to beat Trump, I feel like that opens up a lot more possibilities for how the campaign can change tack going forward (although I’ll fully admit I don’t know what the best strategy is there, not if the media keeps putting every gaffe of Biden’s under the magnifying glass while mostly ignoring Trump).
Right now, I don’t think the data we have is very clear on what’s going on, and I’d like to hope we get more clarity, *fast*.
Gosh I hope this stops already and we can get back to saving our democracy from djt and MAGA. I appreciate civil discourse but am weary of reading this on Hopium , the one place we seemed to have a respite from tearing at each other and instead are endlessly restating the same arguments. Thanks to all those working on 🇺🇸🇺🇸
As both a woman and a person of color, I have to share that every one I know--family, friends, colleagues-- hopes that Biden stands aside. He is not equipped for the brutality or mendacity of the Trump machine, which is being fully sided and abetted by the mainstream media. The Democratic Party leadership is grotesquely failing us with their nonsense, while the house is on fire. Biden's people should be writing the speech of their careers, for history--one that honors Biden's lifelong career, and enthusiastically opens the door to the next generation of democratic leaders. Everyone I know is on the verge of ripping their hair out, including the bald friends.
Lots of us voted for Biden with sinking hearts the first time. There are millions of Democrats like me. I will vote for Biden again, of course, but some are fed up, and will not.
There is no consensus game plan beyond Biden/Harris, only more tortured division for and destruction of our incumbent and successful ticket of Biden/Harris.
this is what I worry about with the possibility of Harris as nominee. I think there were a number of different reasons why Hillary lost in 2016, but I do honestly think misogyny did play a significant role. Maybe it’s just because I live in a horrifically misogynistic state, but I question how a lot of voters would actually react to a race between Trump and a black woman. I think we might end up learning the hard way that this country as a whole is a lot more racist and sexist than it is afraid of fascism. That being said, this should *not* be taken as me saying I think we need a nominee other than Harris, in my mind Harris is the only viable option if Biden steps aside (and last I saw, not one of the other suggested candidates actually polled better than her), I guess I just want people to realize that Harris would not be at all a guaranteed win, like we might be replacing one seemingly insoluble problem (Joe Biden’s age) with another (Kamala Harris’s race and gender).
I’d *really* like to think otherwise, that the masses of this country are more progressive than I think, but I’ve got a lot of life experience suggesting otherwise, and the democrat candidate does still need a lot of white people and men to vote for them in order to win.
A lot of independents are quietly pretty racist and misogynistic, tbh, a good number of *democrats* also are, and in particular, the path to victory for any democrat candidate has to run through predominantly white suburbs in the “blue wall” states (or at the very least, this is the simplest path to victory, along with the Nebraska “blue dot”), suburbs which we know mostly voted for Trump in 2016, precipitating Hillary losing. Of course, part of the issue there was the fact that Hillary’s campaign treated those districts as a sure thing, and barely bothered to do ground work there, but it does go to show that there is *definitely* a vital contingent of swing state voters who are potentially pretty reactionary.
This is also why I always had extreme doubts that Bernie Sanders could’ve ever actually won a national election, despite me agreeing with his politics mostly, in that I suspect a lot of these same swing state independents and moderates would be weird about anyone who openly ID’s as a “socialist” (even if they actually agree with him on everything, just the word alone would make them shut down and reject him).
Unfortunately, because of how the electoral college is set up, any democrat has to win with a lot of mostly white people in suburbs who have more centrist politics and may privately hold many prejudices. It doesn’t help that, for some reason, a lot of people seem to be under the impression Harris is really far left politically; speaking as someone who actually *is* pretty far left politically, I don’t know where this came from, as I don’t see Harris as being politically particularly further left than Biden, but for whatever reason this an impression lots of people have of her, so for every younger progressive Harris potentially wins, she probably loses *at least* one older white suburban moderate.
To be clear, I don’t think this is an insurmountable problem, but it would probably take some real work to overcome, like I suppose it’s possible that Harris could bring out turnout from unreliable young voters that breaks even 2020 records, enough to cancel out the votes she potentially loses, but I still wouldn’t trust that she’ll be some kind of silver bullet for turnout from young progressives, many of whom are still really upset about the situation in Gaza, and I’d be personally surprised if Harris becoming president would lead to a major change of strategy there, especially in the short-term (again, politically I don’t see her as far off from Biden, at least from what I’ve personally seen), so there’d still be a significant bloc of young progressives (and Arab-Americans) who she might still struggle with just as much as Biden (I think it’s possible to win without this bloc, but it already has made things harder for Biden even on his best days, and combined with other shifts in support that might be provoked by a switch, it shouldn’t be ignored as a potential stumbling block).
Also, I *guarantee* you that NYT already has op-ed writers waiting in the wings to potentially write attack pieces tearing into Harris, she’s not going to be a media darling (especially not with all the “step aside, Biden” folks who won’t even commit to her being the nominee in the event Biden does drop out).
Once again, I don’t think any of this means Harris would be doomed, and if the Biden campaign decides she’s a better choice, I’d trust that decision, but don’t expect her running against Trump to be easy mode, the fact that Trump *welcomes* the possibility of running against her suggests his campaign already has thought out a plan of attack against her.
EDIT: seems that I’m behind on the news. Biden dropped out this morning. Unfortunately, the democrats have imo chosen a very stupid plan of an open convention, but we’ll see what happens.
If Biden is to hand the baton at this date, there must be a face saving and sincere appreciation of what he has done. Really, he has been remarkable. No one could have handled the last four years as well....even our strong bench of Dems. This took experience....which, uh, comes with age. How can we Biden supporters let him know how much he is in our esteem even if he hands over the campaign now? I wish it wasn’t with this drum roll of demmanded departure.
Right now I am going with the Trusted Old Work Horse vs. Squealing Devious Destructive Pig. My work horse knows how to plow the field; the pig just creates chaos.
I think Biden Has two difficult Choices. If he drops out now many Democrats would hail him as a hero, acknowledging he made a difficult choice in order to ensure a victory in November. He would receive the honor he deserves and would assume the role of a beloved elder statesman. He could easily play a key roll as an advisor to the campaign displaying his experience and wisdom. If the new candidate wins he'd be even a bigger hero and truly cement his legacy as one of the great Presidents in US history. Or, if he sticks it out and loses, his legacy would be destroyed and he'd go down as the stubborn selfish man who returned Trump to the White House. On the other hand if he withdraws and our new candidate loses, the entire Democratic establishment will get the blame for being foolish in forcing Biden out. That will help Biden preserve his legacy but we'd still have Trump in the White House. There are so many unknowns now and we can only hope that whatever happens we keep Trump out and everyone comes out of it with a victory and everyone's legacy and reputation still in tact.
This is what I’ve been saying. I see some serious red flags that Biden bowing out not only wouldn’t be the panacea to winning so many seem to think it would be, but that it may indeed make things *worse*, but on the other hand there are clearly some significant challenges if Biden stays on, and it’d difficult for me to picture the best way for his campaign handle the doubts about him right now, but I’m assuming they do have some sort of plan, I don’t really buy this popular “emperor has no clothes” narrative where Biden is a senile old man living in a dementia-induced delusion, and everyone around him is just giving into the delusion and coddling them even as they know deep down he can’t win. I may not politically agree with everyone around Biden, but I feel that it’s insulting to their very real expertise to assume that they’re all just letting Biden play pretend at the cost of the country, we all have no idea what’s actually happening behind the scenes.
I’m just going to trust that people who know a lot more about all the forces at work have a solid plan to keep Trump out of the White House, and that the DNC as a whole is willing to accept whatever the plan is, rather than literally risk lives because they view politics like a game. I really hope I’m correct, because if the democrats miscalculate, it won’t just be Biden’s legacy that is at risk, the reputation of the party itself may literally never recover.
yeah I’m personally hazarding on the side of the option with fewer unknowns (which is Biden staying on the ticket), although having more information about where exactly the voters who want Biden replaced are at, and whether they can truly be reached, would be very helpful (maybe such data exists, I just haven’t personally seen it).
In the event that Biden does step aside, I’d assume his campaign has a very good reason for the decision, and a solid exit strategy (which imo would be Biden resigning and Harris taking over, anything else would be the democrats shooting themselves in the foot), but otherwise I’m going to trust what his advisors think is the best path forward, as they have far more experience than I do.
Reposting this excellent video from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez that someone shared in the comments yesterday. AOC addresses many important points that receive all to little discourse in most of the news media and public discourse – but which have been front and center in Simon’s analyses and in Hopium discussions.
Thanks for sharing this. I will admit that 2 weeks ago, I was in the camp of the President stepping aside for the VP to run. I have changed my mind and much of the reason is because of this. No one that is telling the President to step aside can game out what happens. As I found out, it’s very easy to say he should step aside, but there is no plan, as AOC lays out. Without a plan, this is all so destructive.
The thought that Biden might step aside, and that the Democratic Party then takes time to fight about who will be our nominee, strikes me as beyond insane! There is no time for such destructive BS. The clock is ticking – we are already on overtime. In some states, ballots are distributed in September.
Absolutely. I agree. And there is now so much disinformation and so many bad actors out there continuing to try and fracture us. The pass the torch pac is just one example. Trump is very beatable, and I continue to believe that we are seeing manipulative polling to try and get us to believe otherwise. We’ve had the debate. It’s time for this to stop. That’s the camp I am in. Respectfully, it’s time for this to stop.
Thank you for sharing this on YouTube. Until now, I've only been able to find her original Instagram post, and there's no way to rewind or fast forward on Instagram. Fast forward will be useful to find the main points, because she rambles a lot.
I listened as well and thought her two main points were 1) in the rooms she is in, they aren’t talking about Harris as the replacement, they want to get rid of the Biden/Harris slate and 2) when she says “game this out for me” or tell me how you’re going to get through the legal, logistical hurdles that are inevitable, there is not a plan. Plus, she fears it would end up with this Supreme Court.
Dylan, I am taking this post down for it contains false and misleading information. Thank you.
What do you mean? Can you specify?
I wasn't referring to you when I said ignore the polls and pundits, lol. But it is true that Biden cannot be forced off the ticket unless a huge swath of delegates vote for someone else, which I hardly think would happen.
Can you please point out what was false or misleading? Thanks.
Topline: President Biden is 11 points ahead of Donald Trump in the first ever SoCal Research Poll of New York. Vice President Harris performs exactly the same, leading by a 52-41 margin.
Methodology Statement: The On Point Politics/SoCal Research Empire State poll was
conducted online using the Pollfish panel starting on July 18, 2024 and finishing on the 19th. (Recent!)
Respondents were discarded if they were not registered to vote. The poll has a sample size of 500 and a +/-4.4% margin of error. It is important to note margin of error does not account for changes in vote intention, undecided voters, or a non-representative sample.
Go New York!
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by more than 23 percent in New York.
Trump was running from FL in 2020, but NY in 2016. He runs from Florida in 2024. NY lost a seat from 29 to 28 electoral votes in 2024. NY cost us the House in 2022. We must recover those seats. I am not sure it is viable to compare actual election results from 3.75 years ago against a current poll. Too much water has gone under the bridge and new motivations drive us.
Jay Jacobs, Chairperson of the Democratic Party in New York utterly failed to do his job and mobilize the party for that 2020 election.
They’ve also not done anything to help our candidate Paula Collins against Stefanik at least according to Collins.
Come on, NY Dems, my home state. I know there are flippable seats to focus on, but throw her a lifeline. (If I am incorrect, do tell me. No yelling required,)
Unfortunately, my home state, California, cost us the House as well.
Can you enlighten us as to which House seats from the Left Coast should have been winnable and what happened? Complacency, lack of funding/investment, or something else?
I have to look it up. My district was not one of them. Bit busy today but will send you the list later today.
Here is an excerpt from an article from AEI dated 12/2/2022:
Democrats came up short in six competitive House seats across California. Each seat was eminently winnable: Biden carried five of six, including three by double digits. In the 22nd District (Biden +13), Republican David Valadao survived by four points. Though Valadao’s vote to impeach Trump certainly helped him in the blue-leaning district, astoundingly low Democratic turnout in majority-Hispanic counties carried him to victory. While California hit 61.5 percent of 2020 turnout, the 22nd District cast only 53.6 percent of its 2020 total. In the 13th District (Biden +11), turnout reached just 57.6 percent of 2020. Republican John Duarte is poised to win by less than half a point. In northern Los Angeles County, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (for the third time)—again aided by low turnout.
Had Democrats carried CA-22, CA-13, and CA-27, along with a couple Biden-won districts in Orange County, Nancy Pelosi could have remained Speaker of the House. In a strangely regional midterm, gubernatorial performance often played an important role in down-ballot results. Republicans seized their opportunity in Florida and New York. California Democrats missed theirs.
We lost 4 seats in NY in 2022.
From Swing Left strategy page (https://swingleft.org/p/house):
Blue states—including California and New York—haven’t seen the same level of investment as some of the traditional battlegrounds, and we’re proud to be changing that. We're focusing on CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22, where Biden won big in 2020 but Dems lost by small margins in the 2022 midterms. In CA-13, for example, Democrats lost by fewer than 600 votes.
NJ 7 as well.
A Newsweek article I just read said FL is more likely than not going to be a tough race for the GQP. It said recent polling (Fox13/Insider) indicates that Florida women are more for Biden than Trump - 47.8% Biden to 44.4% Trump. It also said that if Kamala takes over for Joe, then they lose those voters (44.4% still for Trump, but only 44.1% for Kamala) and Trump's lead across all voters grew 10% with Harris as the nominee (49% to 39%). Still Ridin' wit Biden, onward to 11/5 victory up and down the ballot! VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024 💙
This doesn't make a lot of sense. Women are presumably for Biden because of the GOP assault on reproductive rights.
Harris has been the face of the administration and the campaign on reproductive rights and there's no where else that I've seen polling showing Harris doing worse than Biden, let alone by almost 4%.
I'm going to guess that the numbers for men are substantially worse such that putting the 2 together still make FL a tall order for our ticket.
It could be that less familiarity hurts Harris. Also, as I said yesterday, the main negative thing people say about Kamala is that she’s uncharismatic. I don’t see it personally, but I’ve encountered it a lot.
In the event that she takes over, I feel like this is something that might change as there’s more media focus on her, although it could also go the opposite direction. This is sort of what I’ve been saying; even Harris is not the silver bullet so many want her to be, and would face her own substantial challenges. Would those challenges be more surmountable than Biden’s? Maybe, maybe not, who knows. I just suspect if Kamala becomes the nominee, we’re going to quickly find that this race is not actually as simple as just being about Biden’s age.
Also, I’d be very careful about assuming that women and black voters will break for Kamala just because she’s a black woman. This is sort of like the assumption the DNC has often made that minorities will just always vote for them without fail, without any work, an assumption that has come under question more recently (including by Kamala Harris herself, ironically).
Basically, I don’t think we should assume identity politics is enough to win an election, and a lot of other minority voters might feel similarly to me (I’m gay and a woman, thus highly vulnerable if Trump wins), which is that changing the ticket without *very* careful thought being put into it might come with its own set of problems. It may have nothing to do with Harris herself.
I don’t actually know how accurate the above-referenced poll is, like I’ve said a lot today, polls show all kinds of things and are not the ineffable word of God, I’m just offering possible reasons why said poll *might* be accurate.
In any event, there has *definitely* been polling showing Harris doing worse than Biden. Less so lately, but it is out there, it’s the crux of a lot of the “step aside, Joe” people’s (imho, very foolish) argument that we need some other dark horse candidate who is neither Biden nor Harris (even all the suggested candidates also tend to poll pretty weakly).
Less familiarity typically results in higher undecided numbers. If that's where the difference is, then that would be reasonable, though Harris has been the Vice President for 3.5 years, a bit hard to imagine people don't know who she is.
Having better poll numbers now than earlier in the year seems like a positive indicator for more upside potential than down.
Given the amount of negative partisanship we are dealing with on both sides, I doubt anyone familiar with today's politics thinks any Democratic candidate could do more than 3 or 4, 5 points at the outside, better than Biden, but 3 points is probably the difference between winning and losing.
This being the case, recent internal campaign polling of15k voters across 7 battle ground states (summary is here: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-be78-dd41-afb9-fefc35f00000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f0f1-dd93-ad7f-f8f5cb9b0001&nlid=630318)
shows multiple other potential candidates polling an average of +3% (with Harris at +2%) compared to Biden. These are effectively generic Democrat vs. Trump polling numbers. IMO, Harris' numbers are pretty solid given her name recognition, the others a crap shoot. I've never played the craps table, wouldn't start now.
Ver insightful comment. Biden is tried and tested against the worst of Republican and Fox News attacks. Kamala Harris is not. And as Dr Alan Lichtman keeps saying, polls are not great predictors of election outcomes. However, Lichtman argues Harris' prospects improve if Biden steps down and she becomes President. Incumbency matters, and is a boon to national name recognition. However, as AOC said today, some senior Democrats want to replace both Biden and Harris which would be a disaster. (Perhaps Barrack wants Michelle to run? Or does Nancy prefer Gavin?) A Dem needs to run as President to optimize the likelihood of success. Which means the choice is only between Biden and Harris, who are the only ones able to access campaign funds they've already raised.
Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D) was only 2 points behind Rick Scott in the Florida Senate seat, in the last poll.
Need honesty here. Biden ahead in NY by 11 means he is underperforming 2020 by more than 10 pts, and that foretells a landslide we have not seen since Reagan.
Honestly, presumptive opinions are many. Just give me the facts, ma’am. Mutually exclusive events constrained by the state borders. I see the brighter side. Factually, this is the most recent poll; it shows the widest Biden margin I can see nationwide; and 2024 presents us with a brand new battleground where women are rightfully pissed.
Thank you!
That’s a huge leap to make based on a poll of NY.
The poll was posted as a positive data point. It’s not. It’s the exact opposite. I was pointing out how so.
We have to be realistic here. The goal is to win and given the stakes, we should be willing to do whatever it takes to win. To do this, we have to be realistic. Treating negative polls as somehow positive subverts those efforts.
It is not a negative poll, it is just a state poll. There is no leaping. Elections with years between them are mutually exclusive. Polls and elections are two different things, so why try to compare them 4 years apart. Things have changed a whole lot.
That's true to some extent, but professionals routinely compare election numbers across cycles and I'd be hard pressed to find one that would look at -12 delta from 2020 to 2024 as anything other than a bright red flashing light.
I disagree. No professional would compare poll numbers from just yesterday with Dobbs and actual election vote numbers from 3.75 years ago with Roe v. Wade. What would be the point of that?
It’s a single isolated poll, a pretty small sample, and who knows what is going on with the methodology there. Maybe it’s something to watch, and see if it becomes part of a pattern specific to NY, but as of right now I don’t think much of anything, good or bad, can be concluded from this one poll.
Simon has strongly cautioned in the past about reading too much into isolated bits of data like this.
It’s also a sample of just 500 people, who knows if they’re even from all over the state, or just from largely one area.
Basically, it probably indicates very little at all in terms of larger trends. Who knows how an equivalent sample from the same areas at this time in 2020 would even look.
It is a new poll format. On Point / So Cal research is doing very fast small polls in 2 days. Narrow focus at state but sometimes national. 500-600 person samples. 538 has bought into the method used. It is okay by me, just for a Quick Look.
It’s not a negative data point - a double digit lead is still a double digit lead. Further, trying to extrapolate a poll of one state to other states or nationwide really does not make sense. You’re assuming that this poll means Biden is down 9-10 points everywhere from 2020 and that’s a big leap. A big leap polls in other states are not showing nor is national polling.
I think the argument is that an equivalent sample for NY at this time in 2020 would’ve been higher, thus indicating a larger pattern of Biden doing worse.
However, I have not actually seen the data from an equivalent sample from NY at this time in 2020, so this is probably meaningless. I’ve yet to see evidence that this one poll is part of a larger pattern, which imo is the only way that polls can be truly meaningful. And yes, I would absolutely still be saying this if a single poll seemed to show Biden doing way *better* in NY compared to 2020.
Was not leaping. Just giving data.
I was replying to yo jcok- sorry for the confusion
Thank you for your wonderful news. Whatever happens in the leadership of the Democratic Party, I hope that we can all pivot and move ahead in unison.
Joe Won! No one has a right to tell you (or Joe) how you feel, or what is possible.
Elections are all about impressions. I hope Democratic leaders do not continue to publicly weaken our elected candidate. If they see a problem, just find a solution, quietly. But Joe is in it to win it!
Interesting. I’m going to temper things a bit here, though, by bringing up the same thing that I did in the face of past polls showing Trump suddenly ahead by vast margins; this poll is so different from all others recently, that I’m wary of drawing any conclusions from it alone (especially since it’s a fairly small sample size and only one, very left-leaning state). Now, as always, if more polling comes out showing Biden ahead by similarly large margins, that’s different.
It *is* worth noting that Biden has been pretty consistently ahead in polls that specifically control for registered vs. non-registered and likely vs. non-likely voters throughout the year, or at the very least has always done better in those compared to general opinion polls. So that’s something.
This is only NY. Very heavy Democratic Party state. It is not relevant to other states. It has been Blue forever. Think Eisenhower.
Great good morning for all of us ! Congrats & keep on, keeping ON!
Friends, thanks for appreciating my voter pitch yesterday. One question I received was how to deliver the same pitch with more positive subjects. Fear can sometimes be a paralyzer, not a mover. Here is my response:
We do that with minor actions that make people feel the government is working for them. In my neighborhood, one of Biden's policies that got people excited was the Affordable Connectivity Program. Children were excited about it because they could stream unlimitedly without parents having to share their internet through their phones, which can be burdensome and costly. Unfortunately, the Republican Congress cut the funding, and it expired. We need to talk about these policy successes and how to make them permanent. That's how you fuel hope!
Thank you so much for coming to see us in North Carolina! It was wonderful to meet you. We believe in Anderson, and we are working so hard to flip the state blue. Thanks to everyone in the Hopium community who are helping us, we won’t let you down!
Thank you Donna. Was great to meet you last night. It's great to be here in Raleigh, and I believe in Anderson and all of you. In it to win it baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you for all your hard work! We can win this with people like you. You give me hope. 🤗
Simon thank you for fighting hard no matter what. I personally want Harris to lead the ticket.
We have a binary decision ahead with only four months left. I respect your choice. I love Harris. But I see the losing end of any of this is dire like never before.
I am a very black and white thinker. The election is about TWO choices. Our leaders are falling into trmp's hands with this public conversation, and losing the election for us all no matter WHO our nominee is.
Elections are all about impressions, but Dem leaders are generating chaos, publicly insulting our candidate (currently OUR CHOICE). We want voters to view us as not being a chaos. We need to unify and pivot.
Remember that many voted (via Democracy) for this fellow, Joe Biden. IMHO, compared to the alternate choice (a dementia filled sociopath fascist). I think we are looking pretty good.
This idea of shopping for someone else is risky beyond words and the consequences are dire beyond words.
The Biden campaign made a strategic choice and then huge error with that debate. Biden has one narrow and painful path. We have to pivot.
There is no party mechanism for pivoting. Please share if you know exactly what it is. Because not even AOC knows.
No one can know anything at this point. That is true. We do know the dire consequences of OUR division in this crucial moment in history? Yes? Read the book On Tyranny.
By "pivot," she means "unite."
By pivot I mean unite.
People have personal experiences with aging parents, and perhaps they know things that we don't. I'm certain. But timing is everything. With the other guy, it goes beyond aging into maniacal. Nothing is certain with him. We must be the party of calm, however possible.
I know that friends don't look at it as so black and white and mine may not be the popular opinion.
By pivot, I mean to UNITE!!!!
No one remembers the debate come election time.
And no one has a right to tell you (or Biden) how you feel or what is possible. I have an invisible disability, so I am sensitive to this.
Today, Joe Biden is our Democratic nominee and NO ONE should act in any way that doesn't promote 100% confidence. Elections are impressions. What impression would someone have looking at our Democratic leaders?
Our Democratic leaders are going on national TV and ensuring that NO Democrat wins in November. Trmp blinked and they flinched and they are whining their way to our demise. They look weak and confused and it MUST STOP.
IN BUSINESS, YOU NEVER IDENTIFY A PROBLEM WITH THE SOLUTION IN HAND. You see why this is. Our leaders have generated chaos and dissension. No matter what the problem is, perceived or otherwise.
Trmp was humiliated at that debate by all his lies.
If Biden wants to continue, we should! Numbers, numbers ... People start to pay attention in the Fall. No one has a right to tell you how you feel or what is possible.
Yes there is, Biden needs to bow out of the race and endorse Harris. He is being very, very selfish and jeopardizing the house for us. Every single candidate down ballot is outpolling him. We will have catastrophic losses if he remains on the ballot. And not just federal candidates, either. The Wisconsin senate, the Pennsylvania senate, the Arizona house and senate, those are all in play with a better candidate.
I believe we will suffer catastrophic losses if Biden DOESN'T remain as the head of our ticket! And calling him "very very selfish" is a meme that anti-Biden forces seem to be testing out.
The 2020 electorate is not there for Biden. We can possibly stitch it back together with Harris. The fact is that the base will rally quickly around her and there will be much more energy than in a Biden redux.
I just don't know about this. Biden has defeated Trump. Is there one person out there who is going to change from Biden to Trump because of a poor debate performance? I don't think so.
Sad that none of us can know though my gut agrees with PeachBlossom.
How is Harris polling per state?
I am certain the public declarations make Democrats look confused.
My first fear is losing the Presidency. My second fear is then not regaining the house. If Biden wins, and God forbid something happens with his health, I fear M. Johnson would step into VP role. That would be difficult. He doesn't belong anywhere near power.
You’re falling into basically the same trap here that republicans did when they blamed Obama personally for the Great Recession, or Biden personally for inflation. A presidential administration is not just one person, a presidential *campaign* is not just one person, either. This narrative that Biden is surrounded by sycophants and has some kind of tyrannical hold over his campaign advisors, to the point where they’re all bowing to some kind of senile delusion of Biden’s, and hiding some hidden health problem of his from the world or whatever, is pure conspiracy theorist thinking. If anything, this sounds more like a description of how Trump runs things.
Biden staying is not just some selfish personal decision, he’s surrounded by political experts and other very competent people who are not just going to mindlessly bow to him like some kind of dictator. If they have data showing that Biden cannot win, then I trust they have an exit plan, it’s somewhat possible he’s even planning on stepping aside right now, as obviously Biden is absolutely going to be the nominee, until he absolutely *isn’t* the nominee, but personally, I’m pretty skeptical he’s planning on stepping aside, the only evidence for that seems to be people’s readings of things Obama has said recently, and a supposed internal information leak that so far no one has been able to confirm. Right now, the supposed evidence that Biden is absolutely doomed to lose no matter what is still about 90% vibes, so unless his campaign has access to some data the rest of us don’t, I don’t think things have reached the “point of no return” that would necessitate him stepping aside.
If we want to talk about selfishness, we should talk about all the democrats (House members, donors, and media pundits) who desperately want to pass Harris over in the event Biden steps aside, in favor of some hypothetical dream candidate (who in every case I’ve seen, doesn’t even want the nomination!), ignoring the fact that Harris actually polls better than any of said “dream candidates”, the electoral consequences of passing over a black and Asian woman in favor of a “safe” white (and potentially male) candidate, the fact that throwing away incumbency robs said hypothetical candidate of major advantages (especially so late in the race), and the fact said candidate would probably need to start from square one funding-wise (effectively throwing away hundreds of millions in donations and millions of votes). I feel like a broken record, but I’ve really been trying to drive home just how monstrously self-sabotaging this plan of trying to get some non-Biden, non-Harris candidate this late in the game would actually be, but so many people are so stuck in cloud cuckoo land that they’re still apparently unable to see these risks for what they are.
Listen, we cannot unring that bell on June 27 and Biden just isn't up to this anymore. Furthermore, Biden has been losing altitude since then, and not just with Democrats. Harris and a midwestern governor maybe Andy Bashear can reset this race and help us win. There are so many voters in Gen Z, for instance, that will not vote for Biden but will vote for basically any other Democrat. That can more than offset some attrition with say like white, older voters. A Harris candidacy would reenergize the base. The Biden campaign has zero enthusiasm. Biden is the best president of my lifetime, hands down, but policy and politics are different skills. The man will be lionized if he steps aside now.
Love Anderson! Such a positive and inspirational force for change! Just what we need more of!
Go, North Carolina!
Simon, if you have time, can you address what is happening with the NC governor’s race?
I thought Stein had been way ahead in the polls? I cannot believe that many polls are now showing a close race between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson, probably the most unhinged and despicable MAGA gubernatorial candidate of 2024! What happened??
And Simon, is postcarding not seen as effective here in NC? I have a pile of cards and stamps that are itching to be sent for Stein snd our Supreme Court candidate Allison Riggs. Can’t find a volunteer contact for doing that.
Check https://fieldteam6.herokuapp.com/
I've been writing hundreds of N.C. postcards for them for NC-1. To the line "... vote for Democrats ..." I add the words "at all levels of government."
Thank you! That’s a great idea. I also add early voting dates on my cards.
NC Early voting Oct. 17 through 3 pm Nov. 2.
And thanks for postcarding to NC! 💙
Hi Colleen- I am new to Hopium but have been following Simon for a while. I read your post about needing volunteers to write postcards. Are you still needing help? Would like to help if you do. I live in CA. but wanting to contribute where I can.
Bonnie R.
Thanks, Bonnie. I was really asking if Simon (or anyone) could point me to a group writing postcards for Josh Stein (Gov. candidate) and Allison Riggs (Supreme Court). There are groups writing GOTV for NC, which I’ve been writing with and will continue to write with. In addition, I was hoping I could get a lead on how I might focus on these two races.
Sometime in early August I know that Postcards to Swing States will start taking more postcard orders. I think they have completed their NC list but will have others available.
Another group I love supporting and writing with is Reclaim OurVote/Center for Common Ground. I know NC is one of their focus states. Here’s a link: https://www.centerforcommonground.org/reclaim-our-vote
I love that you in CA are wanting to help NC. And I’m now writing for Derek Tran in CA with Activate America! Solidarity, my west coast sister! 💙
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrat-doubles-robinson-s-second-quarter-fundraising-in-north-carolina-governor-s-race/ar-BB1q6pSs
Latest 538 poll, early June, was by R firm Spry Strategies which 538 should identify as such.
The one prior to that was from “North Star Greatness,” an unabashedly MAGA “pollster,” which 538 also fails to flag as partisan.
Sorry North Star “opinion research.” Far right flooding the zone again.
Thanks for the info on those two firms, Chris. Helpful.
Interesting, good to see such positive fundraising. However, the article also states: "The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the North Carolina governor’s race a “toss-up.”"
My impression is that Cook Political is highly professional and balanced in its analyses. Given how clearly outrageous Mark Robinson is, I guess I was expecting to still see a clear lead by Josh Stein.
Cook isn’t what it used to be - they tend to overestimate repubs a lot more since Charlie retired.
Really? I wasn’t aware of this. Is the new slant your observation or have you also seen commentary to that effect?
It’s my observation but it’s also been discussed by others. Amy Walter took over for Charlie Cook and she has been very anti-Biden from the start. I never found her insights very interesting or astute and was disappointed when she took over. I understand that Charlie got a nice payday from selling the company but sort of wish he had just closed up shop when he retired.
This is so interesting and helpful info. Thank you.
This morning I called and emailed both of my senators and my congressman (all Dems) asking them to urge their fellow Democrat leaders to unite behind the Biden-Harris ticket and avoid the chaos that would be caused by an open primary and would assuredly result in the defeat of democracy in the United States. If you would like to do so as well:
https://www.congress.gov/members/find-your-member?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0D2hIjA3HnUL_7mEXeJCeQIdZoTtHySGLyFz2bnHllNOWzkBBNMQS0TJg_aem_w1luhZfb_i6kXd-x1YjEIg
https://scontent.fagc1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/451988897_10107352919831513_5114609478839077985_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=oM_Xq2bHIi0Q7kNvgFmHP9h&_nc_ht=scontent.fagc1-2.fna&oh=00_AYBO_v9R468KhrjX2phyytgq62h9h-5p-VPVns7VKpYwQg&oe=66A1A609
https://scontent.fagc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/452284790_10107352920180813_7762979138284020192_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=bd9a62&_nc_ohc=NDnXTB82G2gQ7kNvgE4sGhd&_nc_ht=scontent.fagc1-1.fna&oh=00_AYB9EfOug58Nh_65DCRbntKhZr9QO-EBb4RpY8cQU0JmWw&oe=66A1BF6E
Thank you for the links. I haven’t yet taken these steps and will do so today!!
I already looked up contact info for Pelosi, Schiff, and Schumer. Tried to be polite and thank them for all they do and then let them know how I feel about Biden. Also my senator ( Casey) and Jeffries, to thank them for supporting him. And Biden for staying in and honoring his voters. Maybe if they hear from enough of us. I’m writing postcards saying “your vote matters” - I hope these people will listen to their actual voters, instead of questionable polls. Polls are notoriously unreliable predictors of election outcomes.
Love this! Thank you.
I haven’t and I won’t stop working to defeat Trump. I believe either Biden or Harris can beat Trump.. I have tried to keep an open mind but I no longer trust the Step Aside Dem elected officials because they won’t say Step Aside for Harris. I just don’t see how the Party unites around anyone but Harris at this late date….not to mention other legal and organizational complexities.
Hear, hear!
Yeah, a late decision, where not only is Biden pushed aside but the nomination is handed to someone other than Harris, risks ballot access in multiple states. That invites Republican lawsuits, which have already been prepared – with an overwhelming risk that the final arbiter will be the current Supreme Court.
I don’t know about you, but I don’t trust this Alito-Thomas-Roberts-Kavanaugh-Barrett-Gorsuch tinged SCOTUS any farther than I can throw the Orange Buffoon.
We should NOT trust this scotus.
Their actions have set up what was the initial beginning of the Holocaust. Absolute immunity IS The Enabling Act on March 23,1933 for Hitler. If you read Project 2025, he threw his adversaries (i.e., Democratic leaders and judges) in prison, he began to build concentration camps (i.e., 10 million people on a list to be rounded up), all disabled, immigrants, non Christian people are insulted, minimized, and made to be gone.
We must take NO risks now. They have read about the Holocaust. Read the book: everyone should read the book On Tyranny and then consider how to win against this group.
Democratic leaders must stop this public chaos. Joe Biden was nominated via the Democratic process. We can't chose any alternate without solid numbers. But Joe's numbers are looking pretty good. People are not doctors so I have trouble understanding how they can predict the future.
Yes, trying to install a nominee other than Harris in the event Biden steps aside is one of the most monumentally stupid things the democrats could do this election. Like if you want Trump’s dream of a landslide victory to come true, this is how you’d do it. Never mind that, last I checked, *none* of the suggested non-Harris candidates (ie Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsome, etc.) have even expressed *any* interested in being the nominee, like not a single one of them.
These people need to get their heads out of la-la land, and fast, at this rate I’m rapidly losing trust in some of these people not to sabotage the convention once the reality of a Biden (or possibly Harris) nomination sinks in. It’s one thing to have conversations, but we’re getting very close to crunch time, Biden’s campaign is still showing zero signs of him stepping aside, and people *need* to recognize how certain potential options would actually be suicidal.
Right now what scares me way more than any negative polling data or anything like that is the very real possibility that a lot of people will throw tantrums and refuse to accept Biden staying in if that’s what happens (and imo, there’s no hard evidence pointing toward any other outcome right now, just supposed unconfirmed information leaks that could’ve just as easily come from a Russian, and *vibes*), or even worse, try to contest Harris getting the nomination if Biden does in fact step aside, definitively alienating black voters, Asian voters, and probably quite a few women as well, as well as sabotaging what most hard data (and history) shows is by far the best chance of winning the election without Biden.
Last night I found out my parents have gotten on the whole “Biden is going to step aside any day now” train, I’ll believe it when I see it, but as of right now I still feel it’s massively unlikely, and really worry about the public reaction from people like this if Biden does end up getting the nomination the start of next month, like expected. I’m personally not a Biden stan, and would be completely fine with him choosing to step aside so long as his people have a solid plan (so not something like an open convention or some experimental mini-primary), but I really worry about a lot of people’s ability to accept reality in the still likely event that he doesn’t, or the event that Harris is the nominee instead.
By Allan Lichtman who correctly predicted the last 40 years of presidental elections.
* Plan A Biden is the best chance to win.
* Plan B Biden resigns now and Harris is president now.
"What Should Dems do if Biden Steps Aside? (PLA.N B) Lichtman Live #58"
https://www.youtube.com/live/zKpZvm61G58?si=3WSmT_MRVrpsu_Hl
Wishing the NC folks lots of love. Especially with that odious "some folks need looking" candidate, I truly think Dems can win NC in Nov.
Many thousands of women voted for the re-election of President Biden and foe Biden’s agenda. Please don’t let the Corporate Media and Elite Megadonors replace him with a candidate that will cater to the priorities at the expense of “we the people”!!!
Jeanne, I want to address this narrative that the concerns about Biden's fitness for office is being driven by Corporate Media and Elite Megadonors. As someone who has been in this business for a long time, worked in corporate media, has raised lots of money from elite megadonors (many years ago) and have worked side by side with many of our leaders of this party I find this narrative and meme to be bordering on a conspiracy theory and deeply divisive. Concerns about Joe Biden's age has been a central part of this election since he announced in 2023. It has been a central concern of all of you when I do my presentations to all of you, always the 1st or 2nd question I get in Q and As. These concerns were magnified by his debate performance, and the questions about whether he was still our best option I think are legitimate and fair, and something that is shared by at least half of all Democrats today. However we got here, and wherever we end up, we must strive to be respectful of the President, party leaders and each other as we all work to unify and go out and win this election this November. Folks, please do everything you can to raise your game and keep your eyes on the prize here and not spend our time making it far harder to for us come together in the coming weeks. I am here in NC working hard as are all the remarkable people I met last night. Let's keep our head down, keep working and resist the urge to take shots at one another - we are all family, we all are in this for the right reasons, and this constant attempt to ascribe nefarious motives to people in our family including people like Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff I think is deeply pernicious, unhelpful and out there. We all the want the same thing and are now having a debate about how best to get there. That's my view. I know not everyone shares it here. But we just must rise above and stay focused on the task at hand as best we can in this time of challenge inside our family. Thank you all.
also, when did we start doing caps on things like Trump?
On the other hand, I’m ok when people write EX-president Trump.
This is only my opinion and is based on my subscription to the NY Time, Wash Post, my viewing of MSNBC and CNN, and also the following statement published in the Times that has not been retracted
“Tom Strickler, a founder of the Hollywood talent agency WME, said he had recently met in Los Angeles with Senator Martin Heinrich, Democrat of New Mexico.
“If you don’t publicly call for Biden to step aside,” Mr. Strickler said he told Mr. Heinrich’s team on Thursday morning, “you are not getting a dime from me.”
Mr. Strickler said that he had also been planning to give the maximum legal amount in August to each of the seven most vulnerable Democratic Senate candidates, but that as of now, he would not be supporting them because they have not broken with Mr. Biden.
“It’s a message that I’ve encouraged my friends to send as well,” he said. “If you back Biden, you will lose our support. Over and out.”
I just want to say that IT IS COMPLETELY BONKERS to believe a Senator or House Member would be swayed by a single donor. They have to raise tens of millions of dollars from tens of thousands of people. They get donors, constituents, supporters all the time challenging them on stuff. The notion that all this is being driven by elite donors and not legitimate concerns by those responsible for helping us win Senate and House elections is in my view just not real, or not how any of this actually works. These Members and Senators care far far more what their constituents think than what their donors think. We are Democrats. Most of our money comes from all of you. We are not a party of oligarchs. We all just want to win.
Would love your take on AOC's video; i watched most of it and I did not get a good feeling about some of the actors involved, whoever they may be. She actually did say that he colleagues were always talking about their donors, and not so much their constituents.
Hi Simon. Have you heard anything else concrete regarding Biden's intentions with the race? It seems --- due to Biden's longtime friend and former Chief of Staff Ron Klain' assertion to the great Allan Lichtman quoting to him-- "He's staying in. Here's to the keys over fickle polling," --- as well as, Letterman' upcoming big fundraiser for Biden --- that Biden is staying, intending to go all the way and with no intentions of stepping down. Does this sound finalized to you? I fully empathize with keeping steady, focused, with eyes on the prize of keeping both the Senate and flipping the House. However, the top of the ticket matters most as keeping 45 away is of the utmost importance. As you know, I'm fully behind Biden and Harris both as a ticket or Harris at the top. That withstanding, the in-fighting taking place right now makes it very difficult to assert for whom exactly we are rallying behind. Granted, we'll be behind both of them regardless but I do hope quite soon, Biden informs the public one way or another. I still believe he is remaining at the top of the ticket and if so, great! I know he can win against all seeming odds right now. Not to mention, the Biden/Harris ticket itself is more palpable than many give credit. That said, he needs to publicly nip this in the bud in some form of a press conference or nation address to solidify where exactly we're all heading with this campaign. Otherwise, I fear further dysfunction that will frankly cut at the knees, the great work we've been doing. With no clear consensus on leadership out in the forefront --- the voters can't always be trusted to overlook that. Harsh, but realistic.
I’ll be very surprised if Biden actually steps aside, I still see nothing really pointing to it. People (including my parents) seem to think Obama is hinting at it, but I don’t really see it. I’ll accept a decision if it happens (so long as it’s something sane like Biden resigning and Harris taking over as incumbent, but I presume it would be), but I still just don’t really see it happening.
Sure, Biden’s campaign might insist he’s still running until he absolutely isn’t, but if they’re quietly planning an exit behind the scenes right now, they sure are cutting it close, and I feel like the continued public insistences that Biden is still the presumptive nominee would be an odd way to handle this (seems more likely they’d just keep quiet until the announcement, like it seems awfully odd to do so much to reassure donors if Biden is just going to bow out, anyway).
Hasn't Biden informed us all as many times as a strong leader can? Now a strong leader needs to work through the noise, and individuals are responsible for their own behavior, and respect for the leader's decision?
So we need to work twice as hard and give as much as we can to show the corporate billionaires they do not run this country. We have allowed money to play a too important role in our politics and our thinking. We can out vote their millions.
I have so much respect for Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff. I found myself wavering. I am not kidding when I say I have stress whiplash. On a positive note, when I said my friend who is recovering from knee surgery wants to help, John K, a fellow Hopium member sent me 100 stamped cards for her to send out. He even sent them by Priority Mail. My friend and her husband are both retired so this helps so much. Team Work!
Thank you Simon! It’s not supernatural, Biden looks and sounds old. The race is, so far, about his age. We can’t change that. Get Harris in there and a governor and it’s a different ballgame.
Thank you Simon - there are all kinds of stories floating about and I do think that there are definitely forces working hard to divide our party. What is going on now, is not helping matters. For those of us regular citizens, on the ground busting our butts to save our democracy, this drip drip drip of defections and Biden’s insistence that he’s not stepping down is really demoralizing. I’m in deep with my political PAC and it’s tough to stay focused amid so much uncertainty and fear inducing headlines (like the AOC warning of what will come next if Biden does step aside). I just hope that the administration and all the House & Senate members - especially those calling for Biden to step down- understand the downstream impact that this is having on the electorate, on worried Democrats and on all of us who are doing the heavy lifting. With each passing day, the damage from drawing this out becomes greater. Not knowing is the hardest part.
Like everyone, I hope a decision and a clear plan for moving forward will be forthcoming shortly (and I do mean shortly- like in the coming week).
Thank you Simon! My sentiments exactly. There are many highly experienced, reasonable people that have different perspectives about the issue. Reasonable minds can differ. I just want to beat Trump and win up and down the ballot. I’ll be 68 this year and I want hope that I will live to see some of the transformation that can happen if we win this election.
Thank you Simon for your leadership.
I am in the Biden should bow out camp. I voted for him in the primary because there was no other option and I wanted to show unified support but I didn’t think he should run. None of my adult children thought he should run but they voted for him because again there was no other option.
I could have given him a pass on the debate but his performance since then has been up and down.
Sure we might be able to pull him over the finish line, but given what I’ve seen the last couple weeks I am not confident of his ability to do this effectively for four more years.
I can’t help wondering if the reason he is getting the pushback from some Democrat sensators and congressional members is they question his ability to effectively stay in this for four years. To say he needs to drop out because of “polls” is not as demeaning as saying he doesn’t have what it takes to do one of, if not the, most difficult and stressful jobs on this planet for another 4 years. I believe they all love and respect him, as do I.
That being said, if he stays on the ticket I will continue my efforts and financial contributions to see the Biden/Harris team re-elected.
Thank you Simon for keeping an even keel. I have such strong opinions, it’s helpful to have your clear-eyed perspective on things. Hopium is the right name for this group. I always feel more hope and more energized when I come here. It’ll be ok. We will win this. Thank you.
Thank you for this! I am on board with unity and mutual respect and listen to friends explain their concerns.
It puzzles me, though, why our Dem leader folks do not seem aware of what impact their actions have on our Party as a whole and our upcoming election. Why talk to the media at this time? Who do they serve as leaders when they do this?
I think it’s important to be honest here. It’s not just corporate media. It is the strong majority of Dems who feel it’s time to pass the torch.
The debate was transformative. None of us knew it could have been that bad. None of us. The ABC interview was not much better. Given the evidence we all saw with our eyes, it is absolutely understandable why a strong majority of Dems feel Biden does not have the capacity to maintain the type of vigorous and constant campaign that will be required to change peoples’ mind on his age and defeat Trump.
I disagree-I believe that women and minorities strongly support Biden. No one has yet to propose a Plan B that will not cause a bruising
battle either in advance of or at the Convention and will ultimately elect Trump.
There are beliefs and then there is data. And the data for Biden at the top of the ticket with various Dem voter groups has been trending downward for sometime, landing at what can only be described as dire levels for an incumbent. This is after Biden outspent Trump 6x in the battleground states the last 3 months. Have to be realistic here.
Here is an analysis of one of the latest polls reflecting that 2/3's of Dems want Biden to step aside. Illustrative of the limits of polling's value.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/17/2255111/-So-Two-Thirds-of-us-want-Biden-to-drop-out-Huh?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Ugh, I knew it! I’ve had a weird feeling about that poll since day one, I should’ve looked more closely at the methodology.
As someone who understands statistics somewhat well, I’ve kind of been screaming internally this entire year at all the people treating every single opinion poll that comes out like it’s the word of God absolutely describing objective reality. Many of these polls use way too small of sample sizes to be indicative of anything, online surveys are heavily susceptible to being abused and having false data entered, many have questionable methodologies, and I’m sure the above poll isn’t the first one where most respondents haven’t even completed the damn survey (making the sample much smaller and less useful than it appears on the surface). Keep in mind that the media often cherrypicks polls that support specific narratives; the big thing this year has been polling that is bad for Biden, maybe at first because they were hoping fear would motivate higher voter turnout, but lately I think it’s being bolstered often by people who want Biden to drop out (it’s pretty understandable, I mean if you really truly think Biden cannot win, you’d probably put undue attention on any polling that would support that conclusion, like it’s *not* a conspiracy, everyone is prone to doing this in their own way, we all pay more attention to information that supports pre-existing narratives in our thinking, it’s called “confirmation bias”).
I realized last night that, at age 33, *four* out of nine (counting this one) general election cycles in my lifetime had the winning presidential candidate polling badly into October (2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016; granted, 2000 was a bit of a complicated case), like that’s half of all general elections in my lifetime (not counting this one). And this isn’t even getting into all of the midterm elections this has likely been true of.
Polling isn’t worthless, but it’s *exceedingly* difficult to filter the wheat from the chaff, and is extremely susceptible to being misused to bolster certain narratives. This is part of why I put a fair amount of stock into the pronouncements of people like Allan Lichtman, who have an excellent track record calling elections in the opposite direction that polling indicated.
Basically, just take it all with a large grain of salt, that’s all I’m saying.
EDIT: to be perfectly clear, I don’t know if this is the only poll showing something like this, it very well may not be, in which case this should still be taken seriously as a broader trend, but I do think this shows we should be looking at all opinion polling through a more critical lens.
Hadn't heard the October polling pattern you mentioned was a thing. Thanks for that insight.
Anyone who knows me knows that I strongly believe data is juiced/manipulated to support the aggregators case. Regardless of any "data", 4 months before an election is not the time for this discussion. Time to unify, anything else is willfully throwing the election.
I don’t think this always happens, but it *is* all too easy to fudge statistical data to support a specific agenda, and it’s also relatively easy for accidental bias to creep in through various means. There has definitely been some cherrypicking happening with polls this entire election cycle, and in general I think it pays to look very carefully at the sample size and methodology of any poll you find (if it’s even publicly indicated).
Can you give an example? Are you talking about crosstabs for certain demo groups that have a ridiculously low “n?” Simon has highlighted numerous polls focused only on key demo groups of the base that show little to no slippage in support among key groups.
I would offer a few more thoughts -
1) polls have greatly overestimated trump’s support in primaries.
2) non-response bias is very real (no normal people answer calls from unknown numbers or participate in online surveys).
3) the resulting weighting by pollsters based on their hunches is not scientific or data based (see Nate Cohn’s own partial admission of this a few weeks ago).
4) Biden’s numbers are being hurt more by the media hoopla than the almost month old debate performance.
5) because of the hoopla it’s fair that some people don’t believe Biden will be the nominee and therefore don’t express support when polled.
6) when it is clear who the Dem candidate is then this will once again become a clear binary choice election - and that greatly favors us and trump/maga know that and it makes their false bravado all the more fake, thin, and weak.
7) trump is in for a rough fall in the courtrooms - remember his SCOTUS win will result in him getting sentenced in September in NY and likely having a full evidentiary hearing in DC in October - Jack Smith will have about 2 weeks of forcefully and visually reminding the country of what trump wrought on January 6th.
So, keep working as this thing is far from over.
tbh, I think it would be very helpful to see more data from all the people who don’t want Biden to be the nominee (however much of the electorate they truly represent), specifically about whether they are concerned that Biden simply can’t lead anymore (and thus they will not vote for him), or if they don’t want him because they are terrified of Trump and don’t think he could beat him, because in my mind those are two different things, which warrant distinctly different responses from the Biden-Harris campaign. If it is indeed true that there is a general, overall trend toward a lot of people thinking Biden would be dangerously ineffectual in his second term, and thus will not vote for him, that is a big problem that certainly can’t be solved except by Biden bowing out and Harris taking over (I’m not going to seriously entertain a candidate other than Harris, it’s a stupid idea), but if this is mostly people who less fear Biden’s fitness as a leader and more fear that he optically may not be able to beat Trump, I feel like that opens up a lot more possibilities for how the campaign can change tack going forward (although I’ll fully admit I don’t know what the best strategy is there, not if the media keeps putting every gaffe of Biden’s under the magnifying glass while mostly ignoring Trump).
Right now, I don’t think the data we have is very clear on what’s going on, and I’d like to hope we get more clarity, *fast*.
Gosh I hope this stops already and we can get back to saving our democracy from djt and MAGA. I appreciate civil discourse but am weary of reading this on Hopium , the one place we seemed to have a respite from tearing at each other and instead are endlessly restating the same arguments. Thanks to all those working on 🇺🇸🇺🇸
As both a woman and a person of color, I have to share that every one I know--family, friends, colleagues-- hopes that Biden stands aside. He is not equipped for the brutality or mendacity of the Trump machine, which is being fully sided and abetted by the mainstream media. The Democratic Party leadership is grotesquely failing us with their nonsense, while the house is on fire. Biden's people should be writing the speech of their careers, for history--one that honors Biden's lifelong career, and enthusiastically opens the door to the next generation of democratic leaders. Everyone I know is on the verge of ripping their hair out, including the bald friends.
Lots of us voted for Biden with sinking hearts the first time. There are millions of Democrats like me. I will vote for Biden again, of course, but some are fed up, and will not.
There is no consensus game plan beyond Biden/Harris, only more tortured division for and destruction of our incumbent and successful ticket of Biden/Harris.
We have a binary decision ahead with only four months left. Losing in this election we face a dire outcome like never before.
I'd like everyone (I know, you don't know me lol) to read the On Tyranny! Joe Biden is the nominee.
I just have to ask the question, if this nominee was a woman, would people be standing up for her challenges and accepting her decisions?
this is what I worry about with the possibility of Harris as nominee. I think there were a number of different reasons why Hillary lost in 2016, but I do honestly think misogyny did play a significant role. Maybe it’s just because I live in a horrifically misogynistic state, but I question how a lot of voters would actually react to a race between Trump and a black woman. I think we might end up learning the hard way that this country as a whole is a lot more racist and sexist than it is afraid of fascism. That being said, this should *not* be taken as me saying I think we need a nominee other than Harris, in my mind Harris is the only viable option if Biden steps aside (and last I saw, not one of the other suggested candidates actually polled better than her), I guess I just want people to realize that Harris would not be at all a guaranteed win, like we might be replacing one seemingly insoluble problem (Joe Biden’s age) with another (Kamala Harris’s race and gender).
I’d *really* like to think otherwise, that the masses of this country are more progressive than I think, but I’ve got a lot of life experience suggesting otherwise, and the democrat candidate does still need a lot of white people and men to vote for them in order to win.
Groups Harris helps with :
Independents, Youth, Black, Hispanic, AAPI, Women
Groups Harris hurts with :
Racists, Misogynists
I’ll take that trade every single day.
A lot of independents are quietly pretty racist and misogynistic, tbh, a good number of *democrats* also are, and in particular, the path to victory for any democrat candidate has to run through predominantly white suburbs in the “blue wall” states (or at the very least, this is the simplest path to victory, along with the Nebraska “blue dot”), suburbs which we know mostly voted for Trump in 2016, precipitating Hillary losing. Of course, part of the issue there was the fact that Hillary’s campaign treated those districts as a sure thing, and barely bothered to do ground work there, but it does go to show that there is *definitely* a vital contingent of swing state voters who are potentially pretty reactionary.
This is also why I always had extreme doubts that Bernie Sanders could’ve ever actually won a national election, despite me agreeing with his politics mostly, in that I suspect a lot of these same swing state independents and moderates would be weird about anyone who openly ID’s as a “socialist” (even if they actually agree with him on everything, just the word alone would make them shut down and reject him).
Unfortunately, because of how the electoral college is set up, any democrat has to win with a lot of mostly white people in suburbs who have more centrist politics and may privately hold many prejudices. It doesn’t help that, for some reason, a lot of people seem to be under the impression Harris is really far left politically; speaking as someone who actually *is* pretty far left politically, I don’t know where this came from, as I don’t see Harris as being politically particularly further left than Biden, but for whatever reason this an impression lots of people have of her, so for every younger progressive Harris potentially wins, she probably loses *at least* one older white suburban moderate.
To be clear, I don’t think this is an insurmountable problem, but it would probably take some real work to overcome, like I suppose it’s possible that Harris could bring out turnout from unreliable young voters that breaks even 2020 records, enough to cancel out the votes she potentially loses, but I still wouldn’t trust that she’ll be some kind of silver bullet for turnout from young progressives, many of whom are still really upset about the situation in Gaza, and I’d be personally surprised if Harris becoming president would lead to a major change of strategy there, especially in the short-term (again, politically I don’t see her as far off from Biden, at least from what I’ve personally seen), so there’d still be a significant bloc of young progressives (and Arab-Americans) who she might still struggle with just as much as Biden (I think it’s possible to win without this bloc, but it already has made things harder for Biden even on his best days, and combined with other shifts in support that might be provoked by a switch, it shouldn’t be ignored as a potential stumbling block).
Also, I *guarantee* you that NYT already has op-ed writers waiting in the wings to potentially write attack pieces tearing into Harris, she’s not going to be a media darling (especially not with all the “step aside, Biden” folks who won’t even commit to her being the nominee in the event Biden does drop out).
Once again, I don’t think any of this means Harris would be doomed, and if the Biden campaign decides she’s a better choice, I’d trust that decision, but don’t expect her running against Trump to be easy mode, the fact that Trump *welcomes* the possibility of running against her suggests his campaign already has thought out a plan of attack against her.
EDIT: seems that I’m behind on the news. Biden dropped out this morning. Unfortunately, the democrats have imo chosen a very stupid plan of an open convention, but we’ll see what happens.
If Biden is to hand the baton at this date, there must be a face saving and sincere appreciation of what he has done. Really, he has been remarkable. No one could have handled the last four years as well....even our strong bench of Dems. This took experience....which, uh, comes with age. How can we Biden supporters let him know how much he is in our esteem even if he hands over the campaign now? I wish it wasn’t with this drum roll of demmanded departure.
Right now I am going with the Trusted Old Work Horse vs. Squealing Devious Destructive Pig. My work horse knows how to plow the field; the pig just creates chaos.
Jeanne, I've removed this comment for it is false and misleading. Thank you.
There would be. The convention would pay homage to his accomplishment and there would be a symbolic passing of the torch.
“ Pass The Torch” is the name of a PAC that a former GOP operative runs.
Oh, come on! That consolation prize would be nothing but a slap in Biden's face.
I think Biden Has two difficult Choices. If he drops out now many Democrats would hail him as a hero, acknowledging he made a difficult choice in order to ensure a victory in November. He would receive the honor he deserves and would assume the role of a beloved elder statesman. He could easily play a key roll as an advisor to the campaign displaying his experience and wisdom. If the new candidate wins he'd be even a bigger hero and truly cement his legacy as one of the great Presidents in US history. Or, if he sticks it out and loses, his legacy would be destroyed and he'd go down as the stubborn selfish man who returned Trump to the White House. On the other hand if he withdraws and our new candidate loses, the entire Democratic establishment will get the blame for being foolish in forcing Biden out. That will help Biden preserve his legacy but we'd still have Trump in the White House. There are so many unknowns now and we can only hope that whatever happens we keep Trump out and everyone comes out of it with a victory and everyone's legacy and reputation still in tact.
From everything I've read, it sound much riskier for him to step aside than to stay in the race.
This is what I’ve been saying. I see some serious red flags that Biden bowing out not only wouldn’t be the panacea to winning so many seem to think it would be, but that it may indeed make things *worse*, but on the other hand there are clearly some significant challenges if Biden stays on, and it’d difficult for me to picture the best way for his campaign handle the doubts about him right now, but I’m assuming they do have some sort of plan, I don’t really buy this popular “emperor has no clothes” narrative where Biden is a senile old man living in a dementia-induced delusion, and everyone around him is just giving into the delusion and coddling them even as they know deep down he can’t win. I may not politically agree with everyone around Biden, but I feel that it’s insulting to their very real expertise to assume that they’re all just letting Biden play pretend at the cost of the country, we all have no idea what’s actually happening behind the scenes.
I’m just going to trust that people who know a lot more about all the forces at work have a solid plan to keep Trump out of the White House, and that the DNC as a whole is willing to accept whatever the plan is, rather than literally risk lives because they view politics like a game. I really hope I’m correct, because if the democrats miscalculate, it won’t just be Biden’s legacy that is at risk, the reputation of the party itself may literally never recover.
yeah I’m personally hazarding on the side of the option with fewer unknowns (which is Biden staying on the ticket), although having more information about where exactly the voters who want Biden replaced are at, and whether they can truly be reached, would be very helpful (maybe such data exists, I just haven’t personally seen it).
In the event that Biden does step aside, I’d assume his campaign has a very good reason for the decision, and a solid exit strategy (which imo would be Biden resigning and Harris taking over, anything else would be the democrats shooting themselves in the foot), but otherwise I’m going to trust what his advisors think is the best path forward, as they have far more experience than I do.
🤣🤣🇺🇸🇺🇸
Reposting this excellent video from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez that someone shared in the comments yesterday. AOC addresses many important points that receive all to little discourse in most of the news media and public discourse – but which have been front and center in Simon’s analyses and in Hopium discussions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlzNvNFqtBE
Lots of good commentary in this DailyKos diary by Sinay.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/19/2255746/-Identifying-Media-Misinformation-AOC-Says-Out-Loud-What-We-Have-All-Been-Thinking
Thank you for the links.
Thanks for sharing this. I will admit that 2 weeks ago, I was in the camp of the President stepping aside for the VP to run. I have changed my mind and much of the reason is because of this. No one that is telling the President to step aside can game out what happens. As I found out, it’s very easy to say he should step aside, but there is no plan, as AOC lays out. Without a plan, this is all so destructive.
The thought that Biden might step aside, and that the Democratic Party then takes time to fight about who will be our nominee, strikes me as beyond insane! There is no time for such destructive BS. The clock is ticking – we are already on overtime. In some states, ballots are distributed in September.
Absolutely. I agree. And there is now so much disinformation and so many bad actors out there continuing to try and fracture us. The pass the torch pac is just one example. Trump is very beatable, and I continue to believe that we are seeing manipulative polling to try and get us to believe otherwise. We’ve had the debate. It’s time for this to stop. That’s the camp I am in. Respectfully, it’s time for this to stop.
Thanks for the links, I appreciate them.
Thank you for sharing this on YouTube. Until now, I've only been able to find her original Instagram post, and there's no way to rewind or fast forward on Instagram. Fast forward will be useful to find the main points, because she rambles a lot.
I listened as well and thought her two main points were 1) in the rooms she is in, they aren’t talking about Harris as the replacement, they want to get rid of the Biden/Harris slate and 2) when she says “game this out for me” or tell me how you’re going to get through the legal, logistical hurdles that are inevitable, there is not a plan. Plus, she fears it would end up with this Supreme Court.
Does anyone (Simon?) have any clarity about the legal issues wrt Biden not being on ballot?(Not saying I’m sure that’s what should happen )
Trump is a court adjudicated rapist.
Trump is a 34X convicted felon.
Trump is an insurrectionist which tried to overthrow our government, resulting in the deaths of multiple law enforcement officials.
Trump is a depraved human being who sexualizes his own daughter.
Trump is a racist who vilifies persons of color and immigrants with dangerous outright lies.
LET PEOPLE KNOW! Any way you can.
Anyone know how to send a message to Joe Biden directly to wish him well?
I sent a message to the White House directly
I sent a message via the White House web site.