Would love to see Simon directly challenge this: ttps://www.slowboring.com/p/joe-biden-is-currently-losing-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=159185&post_id=141412010&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=18vm6&utm_medium=email
Matt Yglesias believes Biden is currently losing the election. He buys the (so far unproven) theory that low propensity voters have moved towards Republicans since 2020 while high propensity voters have moved towards Democrats. He uses a map showing that the House vote moved right a bit in 2022 in swing states to make his point (that's expected in a midterm). He also insults us (Democrats) somewhat directly, calling us complacent. Despite Biden's record fundraising hauls and dominating primary results, and despite the amount of work put in by the communities here, at Daily Kos, and at /r/VoteDEM over on Reddit.
Thank you for the summary. I didn’t recognize the link so was reluctant to click. Yes, I read that on X. I see a lot of male pundits & journalists who completely fail to see the simmering rage of womxn everywhere & the men who have our backs. I don’t think there’s a poll that accurately reflects that rage. But there are all the wins on our right to abortion referendums, people see their maternity wards & hospitals closing, their friends & strangers suffering with horrific stories, etc. Biden + Harris recognize the juggernaut that is coming. I’m all in on Biden-Harris and a lot of us are pushing back.
I hadn’t heard of the last 2 communities you mention but I’m glad to hear they are out there. I mostly engage on Facebook, Instagram, & X.
No problem! Yglesias is legit, you can trust Slow Boring from a cybersecurity perspective. I subscribe to him because he is a big YIMBY proponent and sometimes introduces new ideas to me in that space. But he was among the punditry predicting a massive red wave in 2022. He has good ideas, but as for anyone you need to keep perspective on them.
I haven't interacted with Daily Kos much. /r/VoteDEM is actually how I found this community. It's one of the only healthy communities on Reddit, thanks to its awesome moderator team. I use them as one of my primary sources of political news nowadays.
Great CNN interview and explanation to our international pro democracy allies aboard of the bigger case for Biden’s re-elect! Simon you are Soooooo Good at what you do!
Thank you so much Simon and thanks to this community and all you all continue doing. Donating to Tom. Appreciate all of you (-:
" I hope the Biden campaign can reimagine the war room as two, three, four million patriots networked together, amplifying the good works and the second-term agenda of the president through their networks." The DNC has already been doing this through the Reach program, which seems to be a bit under the radar. Here is my Medium piece about it, but if anyone has further information about it, or any comments I am happy to be corrected, since my knowledge is limited. Please comment either here on on Medium. https://medium.com/@vthuronyi/relational-organizing-via-reach-d019d1610724
Just donated to Tom's campaign again - so thrilled to see him where he is. And you look great on with Christine! And of course, your message is always spot on. Thanks Simon - thrilled to be with you!
Fingers crossed for Tom! As for the Biden campaign, I wonder what Simon thinks about a suggestion I heard from another consultant - that Biden should present himself as head of a remarkable strong team that includes Harris, Jeffries, Schumer, Whitmer, Newsome, Shapiro, etc. Good for the party and good for him when folks are concerned about his age . . .
At the beginning of the Biden-Harris campaign for re-election I saw a video with many of those Dems saying “I’m on Team Biden-Harris”. Of course, I haven’t been able to find it again recently. I need a Google master lol.
I think this is a good tone for the campaign. Trump's campaign will be full of self-pity and self-aggrandizement, so it will be easy to make the race a clear choice. Voters need to be shown that one candidate cares about them and one cares only about himself. Biden is running the help the American people, Trump is running to stay out of prison.
Simon always provides great materials to share in our efforts to be an information warrior. But he's limited to one guy. I recommend everyone check out www.demcastUSA.com. It has some great resources and can be filtered by topic, state, social media platform, etc. They also have a Slack channel.
I read your essay as well as this issue and I'm very inspired. I will do my best to continue to spread the word (postcards/calls) about Tom. I've heard him speak and he's wonderful.
I did wonder why you didn't have reproductive health higher up in the "things Biden needs to do." I see it's included under raise life expectancy , but didn't we learn from 2022 that it's a powerful driver? What do you think? Thanks for all you do!
PS can anyone please explain what __Also share a note means? Thanks!
The essay was about additional things which needed to get done, not things that he was already doing, well. Biden has already made freedom, preservation of democracy, and defending reproductive health central to his campaign. So yes you are right, but it is something he is already doing, and doing well.
I would like to see/hear Biden express the necessity of ending settlements on the West Bank, as a counterbalance to the empathy he has expressed for Israel to protect itself. Biden’s backing of Israel has led to falling polls for Biden, especially among the younger population, who over recent years have seen videos of Israeli bulldozers tearing up Palestinian olive groves to make way for settlements. That younger part of our population is more in touch with the violations of the West Bank illegal settlements while the older generation is more in touch with the Holocaust.
I spent 31 years working full time with young people and currently still consult, and I see no evidence that they care much about the issue. Have two kids in their 20s that just finished grad school and college. It's not even on their radar, and they are both Dean's list with honors. So whatever is going on in the polls, this has little to do with it.
Yeah…. I want to qualify what I am about to say with, of course as a matter of policy, I want to see a much better situation for the Palestinian people and more pressure on Bibi from every direction because he has proven to be a disgraceful figure who undermines the potential of a safer and more stable Israel and Middle Eastern region in general. My heart is equally broken for them as it is for the victims of Hamas' terror and brutality.
But no policy can be even be pursued, let alone enacted, without a politics that can win the privilege of power. To that end, the data points to many other more compelling issues to help us bring young people home and inspire more to vote, and Biden can, should, and will do that while at the same time working hard behind the scenes to improve the situation in Gaza.
What frustrates me, although I am hardly surprised, are the number of really loud fringe left influencers, who frankly have never been reliable D voters…usually preferring to piss their votes away on radical and idealistic third party candidates who will never be elected and are so politically ignorant that the would accomplish NOTHING if by some fluke they did get elected…..who are screaming about this without making a distinction between the Israeli people and Bibi, or a distinction between the Palestinian people and Hamas, and acting as if Biden single handedly has absolute authority to make military and national security decisions for Israel, an independent sovereign nation.
What’s worse is they are deliberately spreading misinformation about Gen Z on this topic to try to bolster their own credibility, and too many people in the mainstream of our party are buying into their false and imbalanced narratives, thereby encouraging party leaders to pursue bad political strategies that would do nothing but make it easier for Republicans to win and make the whole situation 1000 times worse. And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to learn that Putin's regime was actively stoking and elevating those messages to create a wedge in our D coalition, even as the most powerful messengers are likely to support Jill Stein or Cornell West.
I would tend to agree with your closing statements. Qanon always had a very pro Israel but virulently antisemitic segment whose contradicting pov & I couldn’t quite understand why it was part of Qanon. Not like Qanon is actually supposed to make sense but when I saw the inauthentic activity on social media ramp up after Oct 7th attack (like it did with the armed anti lockdown protests) it made more sense sadly.
Suzanne, this is a false statement. There is no conclusive evidence Biden's poll numbers are lower today in absolute terms, or due to Israel-Hamas, than a few months ago. As I've written here extensively Biden has actually had many encouraging and positive polls in recent weeks. Regardless of the challenges of the Middle East this argument that Biden has taken a hit due to Israel-Hamas is not something born out in the data.
I love hearing this good news but every time I try to share it with my husband, he's always dismayed about the polls. Somehow, we have to concentrate on getting the good news about what President Biden and his Administration have accomplished for the American people while Trump has been throwing firebombs and temper tantrums. In addition to being a workhorse and not a show pony, President Biden has a sense of humor and is simply more fun.
I think the polls right now are reflecting two things:
- Unlike most presidential election years that feature an incumbent, this year it was crystal clear from the start who the two nominees would be.
- Despite how obvious it was that Trump would win the R primary, he had two (now one) challengers who were serious enough to make him need to campaign.
Those two things are currently driving enthusiasm on the R side, while nothing comparable is generating enthusiasm on the D side. Wait until August or September before putting too much stock in the polls. And remember that even now, higher quality pollsters show Biden in a stronger position.
Thank you for that. I'm just going to put my head down and write postcards. We need to win this one and the choice between competence and belligerent ignorance couldn't be starker.
Great work everyone! $80,000 for Suozzi from Hopium Community is amazing!
So excited to be helping with the Suozzi campaign. Best phone bank I've ever participated in. Great Suozzi and Biden ads!
S.R. Great job with the Amanpour interview. We need to make sure that the major accomplishments and good trends during Biden's term get amplified. HC
Donated for the 11th time to my Long Island neighbor!!!
I'm phone banking for Suozzi right this very moment from my kitchen table in Culver City, CA!
Would love to see Simon directly challenge this: ttps://www.slowboring.com/p/joe-biden-is-currently-losing-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=159185&post_id=141412010&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=18vm6&utm_medium=email
Can you summarize please?
Matt Yglesias believes Biden is currently losing the election. He buys the (so far unproven) theory that low propensity voters have moved towards Republicans since 2020 while high propensity voters have moved towards Democrats. He uses a map showing that the House vote moved right a bit in 2022 in swing states to make his point (that's expected in a midterm). He also insults us (Democrats) somewhat directly, calling us complacent. Despite Biden's record fundraising hauls and dominating primary results, and despite the amount of work put in by the communities here, at Daily Kos, and at /r/VoteDEM over on Reddit.
Thank you for the summary. I didn’t recognize the link so was reluctant to click. Yes, I read that on X. I see a lot of male pundits & journalists who completely fail to see the simmering rage of womxn everywhere & the men who have our backs. I don’t think there’s a poll that accurately reflects that rage. But there are all the wins on our right to abortion referendums, people see their maternity wards & hospitals closing, their friends & strangers suffering with horrific stories, etc. Biden + Harris recognize the juggernaut that is coming. I’m all in on Biden-Harris and a lot of us are pushing back.
I hadn’t heard of the last 2 communities you mention but I’m glad to hear they are out there. I mostly engage on Facebook, Instagram, & X.
No problem! Yglesias is legit, you can trust Slow Boring from a cybersecurity perspective. I subscribe to him because he is a big YIMBY proponent and sometimes introduces new ideas to me in that space. But he was among the punditry predicting a massive red wave in 2022. He has good ideas, but as for anyone you need to keep perspective on them.
I haven't interacted with Daily Kos much. /r/VoteDEM is actually how I found this community. It's one of the only healthy communities on Reddit, thanks to its awesome moderator team. I use them as one of my primary sources of political news nowadays.
Donated to Suozzi. Go, phone bankers!!
Simon, there is no Play icon on today's post. Same yesterday. Substack tech glitch?
Android phone. Anyone else missing the Play icon?
I'm on my windows laptop and it works just fine.
I just tried it on my android phone with Google as my browser and it also worked fine.
The Play icon is now there. Thanks.
Great CNN interview and explanation to our international pro democracy allies aboard of the bigger case for Biden’s re-elect! Simon you are Soooooo Good at what you do!
Thank you so much Simon and thanks to this community and all you all continue doing. Donating to Tom. Appreciate all of you (-:
" I hope the Biden campaign can reimagine the war room as two, three, four million patriots networked together, amplifying the good works and the second-term agenda of the president through their networks." The DNC has already been doing this through the Reach program, which seems to be a bit under the radar. Here is my Medium piece about it, but if anyone has further information about it, or any comments I am happy to be corrected, since my knowledge is limited. Please comment either here on on Medium. https://medium.com/@vthuronyi/relational-organizing-via-reach-d019d1610724
I was just going to comment this as well. Thank you for sharing this.
Just donated to Tom's campaign again - so thrilled to see him where he is. And you look great on with Christine! And of course, your message is always spot on. Thanks Simon - thrilled to be with you!
Fingers crossed for Tom! As for the Biden campaign, I wonder what Simon thinks about a suggestion I heard from another consultant - that Biden should present himself as head of a remarkable strong team that includes Harris, Jeffries, Schumer, Whitmer, Newsome, Shapiro, etc. Good for the party and good for him when folks are concerned about his age . . .
At the beginning of the Biden-Harris campaign for re-election I saw a video with many of those Dems saying “I’m on Team Biden-Harris”. Of course, I haven’t been able to find it again recently. I need a Google master lol.
I think this is a good tone for the campaign. Trump's campaign will be full of self-pity and self-aggrandizement, so it will be easy to make the race a clear choice. Voters need to be shown that one candidate cares about them and one cares only about himself. Biden is running the help the American people, Trump is running to stay out of prison.
Simon always provides great materials to share in our efforts to be an information warrior. But he's limited to one guy. I recommend everyone check out www.demcastUSA.com. It has some great resources and can be filtered by topic, state, social media platform, etc. They also have a Slack channel.
I like them. They do great memes. Also CAP Action does a good job.
I read your essay as well as this issue and I'm very inspired. I will do my best to continue to spread the word (postcards/calls) about Tom. I've heard him speak and he's wonderful.
I did wonder why you didn't have reproductive health higher up in the "things Biden needs to do." I see it's included under raise life expectancy , but didn't we learn from 2022 that it's a powerful driver? What do you think? Thanks for all you do!
PS can anyone please explain what __Also share a note means? Thanks!
The essay was about additional things which needed to get done, not things that he was already doing, well. Biden has already made freedom, preservation of democracy, and defending reproductive health central to his campaign. So yes you are right, but it is something he is already doing, and doing well.
I signed up for YouGov so my voice can be heard. I had only one survey ask about Biden and Trump. Who are they asking?
I would like to see/hear Biden express the necessity of ending settlements on the West Bank, as a counterbalance to the empathy he has expressed for Israel to protect itself. Biden’s backing of Israel has led to falling polls for Biden, especially among the younger population, who over recent years have seen videos of Israeli bulldozers tearing up Palestinian olive groves to make way for settlements. That younger part of our population is more in touch with the violations of the West Bank illegal settlements while the older generation is more in touch with the Holocaust.
I spent 31 years working full time with young people and currently still consult, and I see no evidence that they care much about the issue. Have two kids in their 20s that just finished grad school and college. It's not even on their radar, and they are both Dean's list with honors. So whatever is going on in the polls, this has little to do with it.
Yeah…. I want to qualify what I am about to say with, of course as a matter of policy, I want to see a much better situation for the Palestinian people and more pressure on Bibi from every direction because he has proven to be a disgraceful figure who undermines the potential of a safer and more stable Israel and Middle Eastern region in general. My heart is equally broken for them as it is for the victims of Hamas' terror and brutality.
But no policy can be even be pursued, let alone enacted, without a politics that can win the privilege of power. To that end, the data points to many other more compelling issues to help us bring young people home and inspire more to vote, and Biden can, should, and will do that while at the same time working hard behind the scenes to improve the situation in Gaza.
What frustrates me, although I am hardly surprised, are the number of really loud fringe left influencers, who frankly have never been reliable D voters…usually preferring to piss their votes away on radical and idealistic third party candidates who will never be elected and are so politically ignorant that the would accomplish NOTHING if by some fluke they did get elected…..who are screaming about this without making a distinction between the Israeli people and Bibi, or a distinction between the Palestinian people and Hamas, and acting as if Biden single handedly has absolute authority to make military and national security decisions for Israel, an independent sovereign nation.
What’s worse is they are deliberately spreading misinformation about Gen Z on this topic to try to bolster their own credibility, and too many people in the mainstream of our party are buying into their false and imbalanced narratives, thereby encouraging party leaders to pursue bad political strategies that would do nothing but make it easier for Republicans to win and make the whole situation 1000 times worse. And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to learn that Putin's regime was actively stoking and elevating those messages to create a wedge in our D coalition, even as the most powerful messengers are likely to support Jill Stein or Cornell West.
Well Steve, tonight's news has changed everything. Looking forward to what Simon has to say. I'm going to leave it there.
I’m buried in my studio working on a project….which news are you referring to???
I would tend to agree with your closing statements. Qanon always had a very pro Israel but virulently antisemitic segment whose contradicting pov & I couldn’t quite understand why it was part of Qanon. Not like Qanon is actually supposed to make sense but when I saw the inauthentic activity on social media ramp up after Oct 7th attack (like it did with the armed anti lockdown protests) it made more sense sadly.
Suzanne, this is a false statement. There is no conclusive evidence Biden's poll numbers are lower today in absolute terms, or due to Israel-Hamas, than a few months ago. As I've written here extensively Biden has actually had many encouraging and positive polls in recent weeks. Regardless of the challenges of the Middle East this argument that Biden has taken a hit due to Israel-Hamas is not something born out in the data.
Once again this week in Economist/YouGov the number of 18-29 year olds citing foreign policy as the most important issue is zero - https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_f5kOruS.pdf
I love hearing this good news but every time I try to share it with my husband, he's always dismayed about the polls. Somehow, we have to concentrate on getting the good news about what President Biden and his Administration have accomplished for the American people while Trump has been throwing firebombs and temper tantrums. In addition to being a workhorse and not a show pony, President Biden has a sense of humor and is simply more fun.
I think the polls right now are reflecting two things:
- Unlike most presidential election years that feature an incumbent, this year it was crystal clear from the start who the two nominees would be.
- Despite how obvious it was that Trump would win the R primary, he had two (now one) challengers who were serious enough to make him need to campaign.
Those two things are currently driving enthusiasm on the R side, while nothing comparable is generating enthusiasm on the D side. Wait until August or September before putting too much stock in the polls. And remember that even now, higher quality pollsters show Biden in a stronger position.
Thank you for that. I'm just going to put my head down and write postcards. We need to win this one and the choice between competence and belligerent ignorance couldn't be starker.