Listen to you insulting drag queens everywhere! /s
So much good news here!
Y'all, the GOP has been BEGGING to take this electoral abortion ride for 50 long years. Is it wrong of me to suggest that the party should just lie back and enjoy it?
I don’t disagree, but the REP-S 86% Index of Disgust compared to the DEM- S .5% Index supports our hope going forward. The continuation of Haley voting in closed primaries, is starting to look like a 90% index of Disgust.
"Who would vote for Kari Lake and then Dems down ballot?". Well, some voters know almost nothing.
Knocking doors for a final Dem GOTV here I met one who said he'd already voted for Lake because... Hobbs wouldn't debate her! I could only stare at him until his wife hurried to add "Don't worry, we voted Democrat except for that".
Full disclosure, I used to be one of those totally uniformed voters.
This is indeed #GoodNews -- the election for the Presidency is, without any doubt, winnable. The key questions are:
a) by how big a margin (Simon's 55)? and
b) and how far down ballot?
As we work to re-elect Biden, we mustn't lose sight of Congress and especially, key state legislatures like AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to flip to a blue trifecta, hold fragile majorities and make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
Never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the states that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, or economic.
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's do MORE, and worry far, far less.
Especially, in the context of too many people's obsession with polling margins of error. If the race is close, which is all polls can tell -- other than general trends over time -- then it is more vital than ever to do the critical work of registering and turning out voters (via GOTV phone banks, canvassing, texting, postcarding, etc.).
I will not rest easy until I know Trump and the GOP are no longer threats to our nation. As far as I’m concerned Trump needs to be disqualified!!! This will not happen because of a biased Supreme Court. To me, they are a threat as well. It’s disheartening to see what is happening to our country!!!
Exactly why we must defeat him again! The courts, technicalities and special prosecutors aren't coming to save us. We can, must and will save ourselves! After sending my Gallego postcards testers, I've already begun my next 100 postcards. Keep calm and campaign on!
Executive summary is good. Among other conclusions, this well-conducted study shows that partially pre-printed postcards, with some handwritten material, is equivalent to a fully handwritten card. This can save you time (and avoid carpal tunnel syndrome!!)
Thank you ! I've definitely played with a couple of the scripts I've gotten ( phrased them a bit more like Anat Shenker Osorio's pitches - if you know who she is). Hopefully this will point me further in the right direction !
Could you discuss how RFK Jr's presence affects this and future pollings? Does not seem like anyone is including the spoiler candidates in their polls and how they can upset results in crucial swing states.
Hi Berta. I recommend listening to the most recent “Focus Group” podcast which includes focus group interviews with RFK supporters . It is reassuring on this question. Sarah Longwell and her guest - NYT reporter - both concur that RFk is ultimately more likely to spoil Trump than Biden because he is ultimately a single issue candidate at heart (anti vax). See: https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/s4-ep27-rfk-jr-the-most-insider-outsider-with-astead-herndon/
The thing you have to keep in mind about media polling is that does not do what we do in private political polling which is to inform voters about candidates and watch what happens when voters are informed. This is a big problem for both Trump and RFK, and a big opportunity for Biden as we know from lots of testing that when voters are informed about what Biden has done his numbers go up. This is why I am not focusing on the Kennedy polling because it does not account for what happens when voters are informed about his absolute lunacy, terrible past and his fealty to Russia. He is a horrific candidate, and he is about to get severely degraded. I will have more on this later in the week.
My fantasy: RFKJr is actually a “good Kennedy” and is actually working hard to take votes from Trump (and successfully avoiding detection). His crazy views for years was just a way of getting street-card with all the Trump crazies…
That’s quite a fantasy. However, there is no way in hell a "good Kennedy" would refer to the January 6th Insurgents as "activists". Unless of course that is part of the Grand Illusion being sold to the delusional... /s
When discussing Trump's "leave it to the states" point, it's important to point out what this would mean. It would mean that every woman in America, no matter in which state, will always be only one bad election away from losing all her rights to bodily autonomy, IVF, contraception, etc. No woman could make plans about where to live or buy a home, where to work, where to go to school, where to vacation, etc. "Leave it to the states" means all women live in a perpetual state of uncertainty and chaos. Of course, it's a lie; Trump will sign a national abortion ban as fast as he can whip out his Sharpie, but we need to make clear that even his lie is terrible for women.
FYI, the rightmost part of aggregated (smoothed) plot shows the effect I wrote about yesterday. In fact since (before the period I wrote about yesterday) ~ early February, Biden has been surging.
I’m not sure if discounting ‘right-wing’ polls is wise; we don’t want to be cherry-picking (sorry if this sounds pejorative; I don’t mean to be; I’m just putting up an opinion for discussion). A conservative pollster might leverage a similar argument against some of the leftward leaning polls not removed. (I notice you’ve not removed any polls bc they are deemed too left-wing; does this mean that there are not any?) I’ve considerable experience with data analysis (~40 yrs; albeit, not political data), and in my field there’s always some reason for removing a data point that doesn’t fit with our preferred hypothesis (eg, someone was walking heavily in the hallway and messed up the recording device…). The problem is that if data are noisy (which polling certainly seems to be), removal of a few points can usually lead to opposite conclusions. And in this case, importantly, such poll-discounting is actually not necessary to make this point (that Biden is surging).
Anyway, I appreciate the insights you bring every day, Simon.
The problem with this Roberto is that you cannot assume the GOP funded polls are operating in good faith and are sharing their actual data. We went through this in 2022 in a major way. The red wave was a Republican op, created by dozens of misleading GOP heavy polls. Part of the reason I was able to see the election i saw in 2022 was that I discounted those polls and looked at all the rest. The R polls were describing a red wave election, one which never came. The other polls were describing a close, competitive election which is the election that came. We cannot fall for this again this time. So, for example, yes we can discount/dismiss the WSJ polls from last week paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump's pollster. For more on this read this NYT article by Jim Rutenberg - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html. RCP ended up, based on gamed polling averages, with Rs getting to 54 in the Senate. They got to 49.
Yeah - I decided to avoid looking at RCP until after the 2022 midterms and when I finally saw that RCP senate map after the fact- I about fell off my sofa laughing. That was proof what joke they'd become, how contaminated the airwaves were with junk polls.
You are certainly credited, rightfully so, for having predicted the “red wave that never came”. And I am not qualified to get into the weeds on that (or any other!) election with you.
I’m just wary of removing data points. I agree that polls can very likely be skewed by how they are conducted. But not removing leftward-leaning polls can’t be justified by one of my favs: “truth has a liberal bias”. ;) Are you saying that all the polls you keep, none have a liberal bias? (I really don’t know the answer to this).
I think one way to address the rightward-biased polls is to take the median (rather than mean) of polls. This will avoid problems of outliers; although this method would still be confounded if the number of right-biased polls greatly outnumbers the number of left-leaning polls.
I don't agree with this. It's a "garbage in, garbage out" problem. Last week the national media narrative was driven by the WSJ state polls paid for Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump's own pollster, who is a senior advisor to the campaign. I don't think you understand the level of mendacity and lying that happens on the right. Our polling is not a mirror image of theirs, and we do far less public polling than they do. This is a serious problem, and one I exposed in 2022. We can discuss more in coming days....
Thanks. The point you make about the number of polls on the right outnumbering those on the left is a concern; as I mentioned it confounds the median; but it will confound even more the mean. I’d like to see this point quantified (being a data nerd!). I welcome the opportunity to discuss this further. Thks again.
Many pollsters are not actually in the business of polling. Instead, they have found an extremely cost-effective way of influencing the media narrative. (Which is another way of saying what Simon did.)
Yes, in fact, if you’re interested in influencing rather than understanding the electorate, it may be more effective to increase the number of polls, rather than increase their bias. Even a small bias in many polls will have a larger effect than a large bias in one poll (certainly if we consider the median).
Great summary- concise and very persuasive. Even my husband, who can’t bear to hear any positive news out of a superstitious fear it could jinx us, could not turn away.
I just watched a video from “PoliticsGirl” titled, “Is This The End of America?: A Conversation with Journalist…. They both give an excellent explanation of Project 2025. I added this to my social media, but the public needs to know the huge threat it is to so many job!!!!
Very much appreciate your messaging, and glad to see it finally breaking through on mainstream outlets and legacy media. My concern is not that Trump will win but that he will claim to have won when he didn't, and claim that “it was rigged” when it wasn’t, just like he has done since 2016. The press has aided him in his claims by covering him like a normal candidate who is leading instead of the grotesquely corrupt and unqualified threat that he is. I hope you will continue to have the media attention you are getting lately and that President Biden and his surrogates’ messaging can break through more and more in the coming months. We will need every bit of it. So far the press is still largely covering the horse race. I see no incessant coverage of Biden’s recent polling leads the way I have seen for Trump in the recent past, or indeed the way they have covered the “breaking news” of the president’s age. This needs to change, because Trump WILL use any coverage in his favor as “proof” to suggest he was “winning by a lot” in another attempt to stage an illegal coup, or at least attempt to get the courts to effectively do it for him. Thanks for all you are doing to keep us motivated, organized, and on message to save our democracy.
All of these scenerios of him cheating will be difficult/impossible to pull off if we win the election by a large margin. That is what we need to focus on - do more, worry less.
A prospective data-based study on the effects of different kinds of postcards on various issues like their likelihood to vote. Their results are quite interesting. Among them, a partially pre-printed card (with added handwritten text) was equal to a fully handwritten card. This can save work and maximize output/impact.
Are you familiar with Galvanize Action? They develop ads to persuade moderate white women to more progressive viewpoints about things they care about like reproductive right, helping families, etc. The Biden ad is very much in line with what they do.
I shared that spot with retired Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis yesterday. Wendy has been out font on this issue. Her reaction to the ad: “Jesus, this is so moving”
“In Madison, almost a third of Democratic primary voters in wards on or near the university’s campus voted “uninstructed,” according to an analysis by The Daily Cardinal, the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s independent student newspaper.”
Simon… as you know, Biden carried Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. The campaign to create a protest message set a goal of 20,000. Nearly 50,000
Dem primary voters went “uninstructed”
Dems need them this fall. Same applies for the 100,000 “protest” votes in Michigan. I’m not worried but … but focused. (I work in Austin but commute to Michigan every month)
Gary two things about this data: 1) your statement that a third of the campus voted uninstructed is not even remotely true. It’s a third of people in a few precincts in a very turnout election. The critics of Biden keep exaggerating the size of the opposition to Biden. This is an example. This could actually be a very small number of people. 2) there is no data I’m aware of that in the handful of places where people have voted uninstructed why they are doing so. Due to Israel? Perhaps. Economy? Age? As I am sure you are aware that the state wide uninstructed vote in WI was far below other recent states and a sign this movement is losing steam.
All accurate, Simon. We are not likely to see 1972 and 1984 blowout elections ever again. Rush Limbaugh started the divide of our country. Fox took it from there. We are polarized and divided.
I share my Simon Rosenberg observations with progressive friends fearful of a Trump return. I’m with you.
But. I can’t deny the reality of close elections. We can’t afford to lose many of those 48,000 protest votes in Wisconsin or 100,000 in Michigan. I trust Team Biden … but it’s gonna take more work and followup on where the president went last week.
We helped sponsor a fundraiser for Gretchen Whitmir recently: she said “We’re all on the ballot this fall.”
That’s a great way of framing it.., and personalizing it. Gotta help connects dots for people … which you are good at doing.
Great points Gary. I'd add that we mustn't lose sight of key state legislatures in AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to either 1) flip to chambers, 2) hold fragile majorities, or 3) make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
On 3), we must never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the STATES that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, civil, or economic (like laws banning abortion, banning early or mail-in voting/ballot boxes, banning books, and laws to overturn hardwon protections, like child labor).
As you note, "We're all on the ballot this fall."
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's indeed keep doing MORE, and worrying far, far less.
Indeed. My point is that Wisconsin and Michigan are likely to be close again. So.. can’t afford to leave many of those 48,000 Wisconsin votes on the sideline this fall… same applies for those 100,000 Michigan protest votes.
Gary if are you continue to bring this up you will need to provide data proving those votes were tied to Biden’s Israel policy. Absent that please focus on other matters here. We operate with data and with respect to the President here. Thank you.
Trump and other Republicans are now openly calling for Ukraine to give up territory to end Russia's invasion.
Add one more group that will not look kindly on Republicans, who might have in past: Over a million Ukrainian-Americans, plus many more from Belarus and the Baltic States.
Joe Biden is fighting for Ukraine. Trump wants to surrender.
You would think that Ukrainians would be anti Trump but they were heavily MAGAT. I asked Martin Kuz, the speaker what we can do about it.... We should be proactive do outreach.
Listen to you insulting drag queens everywhere! /s
So much good news here!
Y'all, the GOP has been BEGGING to take this electoral abortion ride for 50 long years. Is it wrong of me to suggest that the party should just lie back and enjoy it?
"Uses more makeup than a drag queen." Certainly more than Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Moreover, Trump’s diaper consumption is a closely guarded secret.
There’s a new study that grounds our growing optimism with real data. See this article from the Arizona Republic.
https://docs.real-audits.org/s/8RTRHM8HWMn2qDg
Full disclosure, I wrote it. The AZCentral published it on 4/5/2024.
Good article. Although you have to wonder who would vote for Kari Lake and then Dems down ballot?
Lake offended the McCain Republicans, so them voting for Katie Hobb makes sense, but the converse is a head scratcher!!
I don’t disagree, but the REP-S 86% Index of Disgust compared to the DEM- S .5% Index supports our hope going forward. The continuation of Haley voting in closed primaries, is starting to look like a 90% index of Disgust.
FT6 is on the ground in AZ.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/mission
"Who would vote for Kari Lake and then Dems down ballot?". Well, some voters know almost nothing.
Knocking doors for a final Dem GOTV here I met one who said he'd already voted for Lake because... Hobbs wouldn't debate her! I could only stare at him until his wife hurried to add "Don't worry, we voted Democrat except for that".
Full disclosure, I used to be one of those totally uniformed voters.
Thanks for all your work, including back on the Fraudit.
(I'm extra pleased when it shows what I want to hear.)
Trump has the physique and agility of a snowman and looks like he is handling the pressures of spring as well as one.
This is indeed #GoodNews -- the election for the Presidency is, without any doubt, winnable. The key questions are:
a) by how big a margin (Simon's 55)? and
b) and how far down ballot?
As we work to re-elect Biden, we mustn't lose sight of Congress and especially, key state legislatures like AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to flip to a blue trifecta, hold fragile majorities and make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
Never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the states that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, or economic.
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's do MORE, and worry far, far less.
"Within the margin of effort" – what an astute and pithy phrase!
Especially, in the context of too many people's obsession with polling margins of error. If the race is close, which is all polls can tell -- other than general trends over time -- then it is more vital than ever to do the critical work of registering and turning out voters (via GOTV phone banks, canvassing, texting, postcarding, etc.).
FT6 expanding the base -- in the above plus WI, MI OH and now FL.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/mission
Don't forget NV and NC -- especially NV which has very, very high voter turnover in Clark County/Las Vegas because of the nature of jobs there.
Terrific assessment Natalie,
Thanks John!
I will not rest easy until I know Trump and the GOP are no longer threats to our nation. As far as I’m concerned Trump needs to be disqualified!!! This will not happen because of a biased Supreme Court. To me, they are a threat as well. It’s disheartening to see what is happening to our country!!!
Exactly why we must defeat him again! The courts, technicalities and special prosecutors aren't coming to save us. We can, must and will save ourselves! After sending my Gallego postcards testers, I've already begun my next 100 postcards. Keep calm and campaign on!
* postcards yesterday* damn iPhone keypad LOL
Since you’re into postcards (I am too!) you will be interested in this:
https://actionnetwork.org/user_files/user_files/000/037/479/original/Blue_Wave_Analytics_Postcard_Best_Practices_Data_and_Analysis.pdf
Executive summary is good. Among other conclusions, this well-conducted study shows that partially pre-printed postcards, with some handwritten material, is equivalent to a fully handwritten card. This can save you time (and avoid carpal tunnel syndrome!!)
Thank you ! I've definitely played with a couple of the scripts I've gotten ( phrased them a bit more like Anat Shenker Osorio's pitches - if you know who she is). Hopefully this will point me further in the right direction !
Hi
I sent $500 to The Biden campaign yesterday via link in your post
I hope that means it will be added to your running total of support from Hopium
Congrats on all your well deserved media attention
Loved seeing you on CNN. Keep getting out there and spreading the gospel!
Xo your team
Could you discuss how RFK Jr's presence affects this and future pollings? Does not seem like anyone is including the spoiler candidates in their polls and how they can upset results in crucial swing states.
Hi Berta. I recommend listening to the most recent “Focus Group” podcast which includes focus group interviews with RFK supporters . It is reassuring on this question. Sarah Longwell and her guest - NYT reporter - both concur that RFk is ultimately more likely to spoil Trump than Biden because he is ultimately a single issue candidate at heart (anti vax). See: https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/s4-ep27-rfk-jr-the-most-insider-outsider-with-astead-herndon/
The thing you have to keep in mind about media polling is that does not do what we do in private political polling which is to inform voters about candidates and watch what happens when voters are informed. This is a big problem for both Trump and RFK, and a big opportunity for Biden as we know from lots of testing that when voters are informed about what Biden has done his numbers go up. This is why I am not focusing on the Kennedy polling because it does not account for what happens when voters are informed about his absolute lunacy, terrible past and his fealty to Russia. He is a horrific candidate, and he is about to get severely degraded. I will have more on this later in the week.
My fantasy: RFKJr is actually a “good Kennedy” and is actually working hard to take votes from Trump (and successfully avoiding detection). His crazy views for years was just a way of getting street-card with all the Trump crazies…
That’s quite a fantasy. However, there is no way in hell a "good Kennedy" would refer to the January 6th Insurgents as "activists". Unless of course that is part of the Grand Illusion being sold to the delusional... /s
When discussing Trump's "leave it to the states" point, it's important to point out what this would mean. It would mean that every woman in America, no matter in which state, will always be only one bad election away from losing all her rights to bodily autonomy, IVF, contraception, etc. No woman could make plans about where to live or buy a home, where to work, where to go to school, where to vacation, etc. "Leave it to the states" means all women live in a perpetual state of uncertainty and chaos. Of course, it's a lie; Trump will sign a national abortion ban as fast as he can whip out his Sharpie, but we need to make clear that even his lie is terrible for women.
That's a crucial insight that I haven't seen elsewhere. Keep saying it, and btw so will I. Thanks.
FYI, the rightmost part of aggregated (smoothed) plot shows the effect I wrote about yesterday. In fact since (before the period I wrote about yesterday) ~ early February, Biden has been surging.
I’m not sure if discounting ‘right-wing’ polls is wise; we don’t want to be cherry-picking (sorry if this sounds pejorative; I don’t mean to be; I’m just putting up an opinion for discussion). A conservative pollster might leverage a similar argument against some of the leftward leaning polls not removed. (I notice you’ve not removed any polls bc they are deemed too left-wing; does this mean that there are not any?) I’ve considerable experience with data analysis (~40 yrs; albeit, not political data), and in my field there’s always some reason for removing a data point that doesn’t fit with our preferred hypothesis (eg, someone was walking heavily in the hallway and messed up the recording device…). The problem is that if data are noisy (which polling certainly seems to be), removal of a few points can usually lead to opposite conclusions. And in this case, importantly, such poll-discounting is actually not necessary to make this point (that Biden is surging).
Anyway, I appreciate the insights you bring every day, Simon.
The problem with this Roberto is that you cannot assume the GOP funded polls are operating in good faith and are sharing their actual data. We went through this in 2022 in a major way. The red wave was a Republican op, created by dozens of misleading GOP heavy polls. Part of the reason I was able to see the election i saw in 2022 was that I discounted those polls and looked at all the rest. The R polls were describing a red wave election, one which never came. The other polls were describing a close, competitive election which is the election that came. We cannot fall for this again this time. So, for example, yes we can discount/dismiss the WSJ polls from last week paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump's pollster. For more on this read this NYT article by Jim Rutenberg - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html. RCP ended up, based on gamed polling averages, with Rs getting to 54 in the Senate. They got to 49.
Yeah - I decided to avoid looking at RCP until after the 2022 midterms and when I finally saw that RCP senate map after the fact- I about fell off my sofa laughing. That was proof what joke they'd become, how contaminated the airwaves were with junk polls.
Thanks Simon for your informative response.
You are certainly credited, rightfully so, for having predicted the “red wave that never came”. And I am not qualified to get into the weeds on that (or any other!) election with you.
I’m just wary of removing data points. I agree that polls can very likely be skewed by how they are conducted. But not removing leftward-leaning polls can’t be justified by one of my favs: “truth has a liberal bias”. ;) Are you saying that all the polls you keep, none have a liberal bias? (I really don’t know the answer to this).
I think one way to address the rightward-biased polls is to take the median (rather than mean) of polls. This will avoid problems of outliers; although this method would still be confounded if the number of right-biased polls greatly outnumbers the number of left-leaning polls.
I don't agree with this. It's a "garbage in, garbage out" problem. Last week the national media narrative was driven by the WSJ state polls paid for Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump's own pollster, who is a senior advisor to the campaign. I don't think you understand the level of mendacity and lying that happens on the right. Our polling is not a mirror image of theirs, and we do far less public polling than they do. This is a serious problem, and one I exposed in 2022. We can discuss more in coming days....
Thanks. The point you make about the number of polls on the right outnumbering those on the left is a concern; as I mentioned it confounds the median; but it will confound even more the mean. I’d like to see this point quantified (being a data nerd!). I welcome the opportunity to discuss this further. Thks again.
Many pollsters are not actually in the business of polling. Instead, they have found an extremely cost-effective way of influencing the media narrative. (Which is another way of saying what Simon did.)
Yes, in fact, if you’re interested in influencing rather than understanding the electorate, it may be more effective to increase the number of polls, rather than increase their bias. Even a small bias in many polls will have a larger effect than a large bias in one poll (certainly if we consider the median).
Great summary- concise and very persuasive. Even my husband, who can’t bear to hear any positive news out of a superstitious fear it could jinx us, could not turn away.
I just watched a video from “PoliticsGirl” titled, “Is This The End of America?: A Conversation with Journalist…. They both give an excellent explanation of Project 2025. I added this to my social media, but the public needs to know the huge threat it is to so many job!!!!
Hi Sheila, did you watch the companion podcast where Leigh interviewed the same journalist about "Agenda 47"? I highly recommend it!
Here are the links:
Agenda 47: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW-NjxL5oUw&t=1s
Project 45: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPgeg_Jij8c&t=12s
Thanks Cheryl!! I saw it, but they recommended to watch the Project 2025 first. I will be sure to watch it. Thanks again.
This is a cool graphic to share.If you click on an aqua link it brings you to a supporting article.
How To Tell Your Friends About Project 2025 📣
https://bigstageteleprompter.online/content/J8EhYqjwuA
Very much appreciate your messaging, and glad to see it finally breaking through on mainstream outlets and legacy media. My concern is not that Trump will win but that he will claim to have won when he didn't, and claim that “it was rigged” when it wasn’t, just like he has done since 2016. The press has aided him in his claims by covering him like a normal candidate who is leading instead of the grotesquely corrupt and unqualified threat that he is. I hope you will continue to have the media attention you are getting lately and that President Biden and his surrogates’ messaging can break through more and more in the coming months. We will need every bit of it. So far the press is still largely covering the horse race. I see no incessant coverage of Biden’s recent polling leads the way I have seen for Trump in the recent past, or indeed the way they have covered the “breaking news” of the president’s age. This needs to change, because Trump WILL use any coverage in his favor as “proof” to suggest he was “winning by a lot” in another attempt to stage an illegal coup, or at least attempt to get the courts to effectively do it for him. Thanks for all you are doing to keep us motivated, organized, and on message to save our democracy.
All of these scenerios of him cheating will be difficult/impossible to pull off if we win the election by a large margin. That is what we need to focus on - do more, worry less.
His support is visceral. IMHO "Trump hates dogs" and "Trump stole from kids with cancer" are enough to chip away at his base.
Proof. https://rvat.org/
Just mailed 37 handwritten postcards to Nevada voters for Jacky Rosen. Will do another 25 this afternoon.
Brick by brick, my fellow citizens. Brick by brick.
You may be interested in reading this:
https://actionnetwork.org/user_files/user_files/000/037/479/original/Blue_Wave_Analytics_Postcard_Best_Practices_Data_and_Analysis.pdf
A prospective data-based study on the effects of different kinds of postcards on various issues like their likelihood to vote. Their results are quite interesting. Among them, a partially pre-printed card (with added handwritten text) was equal to a fully handwritten card. This can save work and maximize output/impact.
Oh! I will read the study. I’ve been curious about this and don’t want to waste a second of my election- exhausted energy if I don’t have to ! 😊
That ad you posted is incredibly moving. I don't see how anyone can watch it and not recognize what damage the Dobbs decision has done.
I agree 💯percent.
Are you familiar with Galvanize Action? They develop ads to persuade moderate white women to more progressive viewpoints about things they care about like reproductive right, helping families, etc. The Biden ad is very much in line with what they do.
https://www.galvanizeaction.org/
You can also explore their playbook here: https://playbook.galvanizeaction.org/
(Note: they explicitly state on their website that you are free to share their ads).
Big Tent USA (https://www.bigtentusa.org/our-events/) recently did a Tent Talk with the founder Jackie Payne. A recording of it can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UePxAObo3k
Enjoy! And please consider donating so that they can broaden their reach!
I shared that spot with retired Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis yesterday. Wendy has been out font on this issue. Her reaction to the ad: “Jesus, this is so moving”
Gary please respond to my questions on your note message to me.
Have not seen it, Simon.
NYT:
“In Madison, almost a third of Democratic primary voters in wards on or near the university’s campus voted “uninstructed,” according to an analysis by The Daily Cardinal, the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s independent student newspaper.”
Simon… as you know, Biden carried Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. The campaign to create a protest message set a goal of 20,000. Nearly 50,000
Dem primary voters went “uninstructed”
Dems need them this fall. Same applies for the 100,000 “protest” votes in Michigan. I’m not worried but … but focused. (I work in Austin but commute to Michigan every month)
Gary two things about this data: 1) your statement that a third of the campus voted uninstructed is not even remotely true. It’s a third of people in a few precincts in a very turnout election. The critics of Biden keep exaggerating the size of the opposition to Biden. This is an example. This could actually be a very small number of people. 2) there is no data I’m aware of that in the handful of places where people have voted uninstructed why they are doing so. Due to Israel? Perhaps. Economy? Age? As I am sure you are aware that the state wide uninstructed vote in WI was far below other recent states and a sign this movement is losing steam.
All accurate, Simon. We are not likely to see 1972 and 1984 blowout elections ever again. Rush Limbaugh started the divide of our country. Fox took it from there. We are polarized and divided.
I share my Simon Rosenberg observations with progressive friends fearful of a Trump return. I’m with you.
But. I can’t deny the reality of close elections. We can’t afford to lose many of those 48,000 protest votes in Wisconsin or 100,000 in Michigan. I trust Team Biden … but it’s gonna take more work and followup on where the president went last week.
We helped sponsor a fundraiser for Gretchen Whitmir recently: she said “We’re all on the ballot this fall.”
That’s a great way of framing it.., and personalizing it. Gotta help connects dots for people … which you are good at doing.
Great points Gary. I'd add that we mustn't lose sight of key state legislatures in AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to either 1) flip to chambers, 2) hold fragile majorities, or 3) make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
On 3), we must never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the STATES that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, civil, or economic (like laws banning abortion, banning early or mail-in voting/ballot boxes, banning books, and laws to overturn hardwon protections, like child labor).
As you note, "We're all on the ballot this fall."
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's indeed keep doing MORE, and worrying far, far less.
Also, if I may: The "uninstructed" vote is really not that much higher than the "uncommitted" when Obama was running. That’s worth keeping in mind!
Also worth noting: They could have voted *against* President Biden by casting votes for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson. Hardly anyone did.
Indeed. My point is that Wisconsin and Michigan are likely to be close again. So.. can’t afford to leave many of those 48,000 Wisconsin votes on the sideline this fall… same applies for those 100,000 Michigan protest votes.
Gary if are you continue to bring this up you will need to provide data proving those votes were tied to Biden’s Israel policy. Absent that please focus on other matters here. We operate with data and with respect to the President here. Thank you.
Trump and other Republicans are now openly calling for Ukraine to give up territory to end Russia's invasion.
Add one more group that will not look kindly on Republicans, who might have in past: Over a million Ukrainian-Americans, plus many more from Belarus and the Baltic States.
Joe Biden is fighting for Ukraine. Trump wants to surrender.
We're discussing it on Thom Hartmann. https://hartmannreport.com/p/will-the-congressional-putin-caucus-0b9?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=302288&post_id=143397619&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=zc69i&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Note my comments.
I zoomed into a Forgotten Democrats program on Ukraine. https://vimeo.com/926576891
You would think that Ukrainians would be anti Trump but they were heavily MAGAT. I asked Martin Kuz, the speaker what we can do about it.... We should be proactive do outreach.
https://twitter.com/martinkuz?lang=en