Listen to you insulting drag queens everywhere! /s
So much good news here!
Y'all, the GOP has been BEGGING to take this electoral abortion ride for 50 long years. Is it wrong of me to suggest that the party should just lie back and enjoy it?
This is indeed #GoodNews -- the election for the Presidency is, without any doubt, winnable. The key questions are:
a) by how big a margin (Simon's 55)? and
b) and how far down ballot?
As we work to re-elect Biden, we mustn't lose sight of Congress and especially, key state legislatures like AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to flip to a blue trifecta, hold fragile majorities and make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
Never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the states that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, or economic.
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's do MORE, and worry far, far less.
I will not rest easy until I know Trump and the GOP are no longer threats to our nation. As far as I’m concerned Trump needs to be disqualified!!! This will not happen because of a biased Supreme Court. To me, they are a threat as well. It’s disheartening to see what is happening to our country!!!
Could you discuss how RFK Jr's presence affects this and future pollings? Does not seem like anyone is including the spoiler candidates in their polls and how they can upset results in crucial swing states.
When discussing Trump's "leave it to the states" point, it's important to point out what this would mean. It would mean that every woman in America, no matter in which state, will always be only one bad election away from losing all her rights to bodily autonomy, IVF, contraception, etc. No woman could make plans about where to live or buy a home, where to work, where to go to school, where to vacation, etc. "Leave it to the states" means all women live in a perpetual state of uncertainty and chaos. Of course, it's a lie; Trump will sign a national abortion ban as fast as he can whip out his Sharpie, but we need to make clear that even his lie is terrible for women.
FYI, the rightmost part of aggregated (smoothed) plot shows the effect I wrote about yesterday. In fact since (before the period I wrote about yesterday) ~ early February, Biden has been surging.
I’m not sure if discounting ‘right-wing’ polls is wise; we don’t want to be cherry-picking (sorry if this sounds pejorative; I don’t mean to be; I’m just putting up an opinion for discussion). A conservative pollster might leverage a similar argument against some of the leftward leaning polls not removed. (I notice you’ve not removed any polls bc they are deemed too left-wing; does this mean that there are not any?) I’ve considerable experience with data analysis (~40 yrs; albeit, not political data), and in my field there’s always some reason for removing a data point that doesn’t fit with our preferred hypothesis (eg, someone was walking heavily in the hallway and messed up the recording device…). The problem is that if data are noisy (which polling certainly seems to be), removal of a few points can usually lead to opposite conclusions. And in this case, importantly, such poll-discounting is actually not necessary to make this point (that Biden is surging).
Anyway, I appreciate the insights you bring every day, Simon.
Great summary- concise and very persuasive. Even my husband, who can’t bear to hear any positive news out of a superstitious fear it could jinx us, could not turn away.
I just watched a video from “PoliticsGirl” titled, “Is This The End of America?: A Conversation with Journalist…. They both give an excellent explanation of Project 2025. I added this to my social media, but the public needs to know the huge threat it is to so many job!!!!
Very much appreciate your messaging, and glad to see it finally breaking through on mainstream outlets and legacy media. My concern is not that Trump will win but that he will claim to have won when he didn't, and claim that “it was rigged” when it wasn’t, just like he has done since 2016. The press has aided him in his claims by covering him like a normal candidate who is leading instead of the grotesquely corrupt and unqualified threat that he is. I hope you will continue to have the media attention you are getting lately and that President Biden and his surrogates’ messaging can break through more and more in the coming months. We will need every bit of it. So far the press is still largely covering the horse race. I see no incessant coverage of Biden’s recent polling leads the way I have seen for Trump in the recent past, or indeed the way they have covered the “breaking news” of the president’s age. This needs to change, because Trump WILL use any coverage in his favor as “proof” to suggest he was “winning by a lot” in another attempt to stage an illegal coup, or at least attempt to get the courts to effectively do it for him. Thanks for all you are doing to keep us motivated, organized, and on message to save our democracy.
Trump and other Republicans are now openly calling for Ukraine to give up territory to end Russia's invasion.
Add one more group that will not look kindly on Republicans, who might have in past: Over a million Ukrainian-Americans, plus many more from Belarus and the Baltic States.
Joe Biden is fighting for Ukraine. Trump wants to surrender.
Listen to you insulting drag queens everywhere! /s
So much good news here!
Y'all, the GOP has been BEGGING to take this electoral abortion ride for 50 long years. Is it wrong of me to suggest that the party should just lie back and enjoy it?
There’s a new study that grounds our growing optimism with real data. See this article from the Arizona Republic.
https://docs.real-audits.org/s/8RTRHM8HWMn2qDg
Trump has the physique and agility of a snowman and looks like he is handling the pressures of spring as well as one.
This is indeed #GoodNews -- the election for the Presidency is, without any doubt, winnable. The key questions are:
a) by how big a margin (Simon's 55)? and
b) and how far down ballot?
As we work to re-elect Biden, we mustn't lose sight of Congress and especially, key state legislatures like AZ, NV, PA and NC, where we are in a position to flip to a blue trifecta, hold fragile majorities and make key inroads to break GOP supermajorities.
Never forget, 23X more laws are passed in state legislatures than in Congress, and since Mississippi sent Dobbs to SCOTUS to overturn Roe v Wade, it is the states that are (and have been) attacking our freedoms and rights -- whether reproductive, voting, or economic.
Given that Dem down ballot roll off averages 80% (vs Repubs at 37%) -- we must keep our eye on the ball between now and November, and not just win big for Biden, but for the entire ticket!
We are within, as Mike Podhorzer says, the "margin of effort" -- regardless of the "pollercoaster," so let's do MORE, and worry far, far less.
I will not rest easy until I know Trump and the GOP are no longer threats to our nation. As far as I’m concerned Trump needs to be disqualified!!! This will not happen because of a biased Supreme Court. To me, they are a threat as well. It’s disheartening to see what is happening to our country!!!
Hi
I sent $500 to The Biden campaign yesterday via link in your post
I hope that means it will be added to your running total of support from Hopium
Congrats on all your well deserved media attention
Loved seeing you on CNN. Keep getting out there and spreading the gospel!
Xo your team
Could you discuss how RFK Jr's presence affects this and future pollings? Does not seem like anyone is including the spoiler candidates in their polls and how they can upset results in crucial swing states.
When discussing Trump's "leave it to the states" point, it's important to point out what this would mean. It would mean that every woman in America, no matter in which state, will always be only one bad election away from losing all her rights to bodily autonomy, IVF, contraception, etc. No woman could make plans about where to live or buy a home, where to work, where to go to school, where to vacation, etc. "Leave it to the states" means all women live in a perpetual state of uncertainty and chaos. Of course, it's a lie; Trump will sign a national abortion ban as fast as he can whip out his Sharpie, but we need to make clear that even his lie is terrible for women.
FYI, the rightmost part of aggregated (smoothed) plot shows the effect I wrote about yesterday. In fact since (before the period I wrote about yesterday) ~ early February, Biden has been surging.
I’m not sure if discounting ‘right-wing’ polls is wise; we don’t want to be cherry-picking (sorry if this sounds pejorative; I don’t mean to be; I’m just putting up an opinion for discussion). A conservative pollster might leverage a similar argument against some of the leftward leaning polls not removed. (I notice you’ve not removed any polls bc they are deemed too left-wing; does this mean that there are not any?) I’ve considerable experience with data analysis (~40 yrs; albeit, not political data), and in my field there’s always some reason for removing a data point that doesn’t fit with our preferred hypothesis (eg, someone was walking heavily in the hallway and messed up the recording device…). The problem is that if data are noisy (which polling certainly seems to be), removal of a few points can usually lead to opposite conclusions. And in this case, importantly, such poll-discounting is actually not necessary to make this point (that Biden is surging).
Anyway, I appreciate the insights you bring every day, Simon.
Great summary- concise and very persuasive. Even my husband, who can’t bear to hear any positive news out of a superstitious fear it could jinx us, could not turn away.
I just watched a video from “PoliticsGirl” titled, “Is This The End of America?: A Conversation with Journalist…. They both give an excellent explanation of Project 2025. I added this to my social media, but the public needs to know the huge threat it is to so many job!!!!
Very much appreciate your messaging, and glad to see it finally breaking through on mainstream outlets and legacy media. My concern is not that Trump will win but that he will claim to have won when he didn't, and claim that “it was rigged” when it wasn’t, just like he has done since 2016. The press has aided him in his claims by covering him like a normal candidate who is leading instead of the grotesquely corrupt and unqualified threat that he is. I hope you will continue to have the media attention you are getting lately and that President Biden and his surrogates’ messaging can break through more and more in the coming months. We will need every bit of it. So far the press is still largely covering the horse race. I see no incessant coverage of Biden’s recent polling leads the way I have seen for Trump in the recent past, or indeed the way they have covered the “breaking news” of the president’s age. This needs to change, because Trump WILL use any coverage in his favor as “proof” to suggest he was “winning by a lot” in another attempt to stage an illegal coup, or at least attempt to get the courts to effectively do it for him. Thanks for all you are doing to keep us motivated, organized, and on message to save our democracy.
Just mailed 37 handwritten postcards to Nevada voters for Jacky Rosen. Will do another 25 this afternoon.
Brick by brick, my fellow citizens. Brick by brick.
That ad you posted is incredibly moving. I don't see how anyone can watch it and not recognize what damage the Dobbs decision has done.
Trump and other Republicans are now openly calling for Ukraine to give up territory to end Russia's invasion.
Add one more group that will not look kindly on Republicans, who might have in past: Over a million Ukrainian-Americans, plus many more from Belarus and the Baltic States.
Joe Biden is fighting for Ukraine. Trump wants to surrender.