63 Comments

Thank you for your strong and steady leadership, Simon. People like you and President Biden are the clear-eyed and determined leaders that Democrats need.

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The latest entry from historian Heather Cox Richardson, in her "Letters From an American", is highly relevant to President Biden’s continuing disadvantage with the news media. This goes a long way toward explaining why Biden is not receiving due credit for his administration’s great accomplishments. Cox Richardson points to a fascinating historical parallel.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-15-2024

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Im hopeful/confident Biden's campaigning and these debates will be of great help. As for the news media - God Damn them - most of them. I salute those editors who are making the right decisions vs profit of fragile ego driven ones. Keep calm & campaign on!

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Most of the Republicans in my demographic -- old and in the way -- rejoice that the stock markets are at an all time high and headed north. IRAs, 401 K's etc exceed inflation.

Trump has been telling everyone to sell Biden short. I hope that his followers have.

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May 16·edited May 16

Lingering questions:

Why does the news media write "porn star Stormy Daniels" but never "rapist Donald Trump"? Is it because it’s more OK to be a pussy-grabber and a rapist – and Trump is a role model?

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Because he’s that and so much more, maybe too much to list?

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Partly it’s sexism. Make Stormy Daniels look like a disreputable slutty slut and she’s discredited. Trump? Boys will be boys, amirite! Especially rich boys! Even though said “boy” is pushing 80.

(The whole “sex work is disgusting and taints any woman or LGBTQ+ person who works in the industry” is one reason why I want to see that line of work legalized and unionized. Treat it like the job it is. TBH it’s almost a division of psychology, given that the sex workers and former sex workers I know/have known seemed to operate as much like underpaid therapists than anything else.)

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Mysogyny certainly plays a role, but I am fairly certain that it's a risk management/"hedging our bets"/putting income above ethics situation. I think this explains the NYT situation to a large degree as well--when the outcome of the election and consequences of election results for said media are not certain. Trying not to lose conservative subscribers/viewers in the meantime also plays a large role .

The lack of moral conscious, ethics etc from most of the media has led me to really appreciate those outlets that seem to understand what Trump/MAGA is about (like The Guardian and Daily Kos). When Trump loses and MAGA dies, the MSM will have a whole different approach for self-serving reasons, I am sure.

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Joe should say in the debate that his opponent wakes up every day and thinks about 1) jail; 2) hair and makeup; 3) his money.

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I disagree strongly with the idea that Biden should pardon Trump and I am one of those middle voters Trump's guy was talking about in that new clip. Pardoning Nixon didn't work out well for Ford and it hasn't proven to work out well for the country either. Accountability is greatly needed to prevent a repeat.

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May 16·edited May 16

Senator Mitt Romney is way off the mark! If anything, Romney himself is to be faulted for not doing more to convince his GOP Senate colleagues to *convict* Trump of the impeachment charges and to disqualify him from ever running for office again.

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I think one of the sad things about Mitt Romney's Career is how much he really does not understand people. This is just a recent clear example.

There is not an upside to pardoning Trump. People who think there is are the same people who believe when voters when they say they hate the fighting in Washington, means they never be in a conflict, or should bend over backwards to accommodate the other party. People are describing an outcome they want not a strategy to get there.

The only way to eliminate Washington discord is for one party to become dominate with little real risk of loosing control of the legislature for more than a brief time. Grant, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, Eisenhower, JFK and LBJ all has extremely stable legislatures.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Combined--Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png

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Romney, like Larry Hogan, could have just retired covered in laurels as some kind of “moderate.” Instead, both are debasing themselves in different ways at the altar of MAGA. As they saying goes, “Sad!”

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Maybe Larry Hogan, but I cannot agree about Mitt Romney. His two time vote to convict Trump was enough to earn my respect. I think he has shown himself to have courage, morality, is smart, probably a good leader, but he fundamentally does not understand people, and I disagree with his politics.

I am thinking of "Corporations are people my friend." Or about how he believed that people really like their boss. Or how he was shocked to learn that only about 20% of senators do all the work. It's like, "my man have you ever had a job before?"

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May 16·edited May 16

Mitt Romney may have "binders full of women"

The US Department of Justice, however, has many binders full of co-conspirators, coup planners, insurrectionists, traitors, Russian bot-farm operators, and financial enablers foreign and domestic. In addition, the DOJ has large rooms full of binders with more than enough damning evidence to sink Trump – should SCOTUS and Judge Aileen Cannon ever allow those key criminal cases to go to trial.

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Pardoning Richard Nixon cost Gerald Ford the 1976 election.

It's an absolutely idiotic notion that pardoning a bigger crook would "help" Biden. And anyway, pardons shouldn't be bestowed because they might help politically. Pardoning Trump even before a trial, as Romney is suggesting, would be the suppression of truth. We need to know what Trump did, and what his supporters are willing to let him do.

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Anyone know if Fox is A, RV or LV? Thanks.

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RV, I believe!

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Kate Bolduan's position that not showing up for the debates has "worked well" for Trump is curious. Or should we just ignore the reality that he's losing 20% of the GOP primary votes to a candidate who dropped out more than two months ago?

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It is hard to argue that it hasn't worked for him in the primaries, he won. But yes it is more than a little odd to accept her framing that is is a good indicator of future success.

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Kate Bolduan personifies everything wrong the political media. Softballs for the Republican (“worked well for Trump) dismissive of Simon (“I know you have a point of view about polls”). She and her producers seem to think their audience and job is to reflect what Politico writes about - the horse race - rather then report on the news (and facts) for their viewers. They are bad journalists and even worse political analysts. Fortunately she and CNN are increasingly irrelavent. Check out the latest numbers from adweek: https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/week-of-may-6-basic-cable-ranker-msnbc-fox-news-cnn/

“In primetime, CNN averaged 514,000 total viewers and 98,000 viewers in the A25-54 demo for the week. That’s a drop of -13% in both categories compared to the previous week. In total day, CNN attracted 498,000 total viewers and 85,000 viewers in the demo for a +1% gain in the former category and a -3% fall in the latter week-to-week.

CNN’s primetime lineup finished the week in 11th place with total viewers and tied for 19th place with A&E in the A25-54 demo—a two-spot drop in both measured categories from the week prior.”

P.S. for my fellow NYT haters., check out this absurd article about MSNBC’s recent success. They can’t stand it (I love it). https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/business/media/nbc-msnbc-trump-biden.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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That’s behind a paywall, and it’s a few years since we cancelled our NYT subscription.

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My wife likes the crossword on Sundays :) I - generally - no longer read the NYT, listen to daily or live within their orbit anymore. I only read the actual paper on Sundays. It’s strange to read it once a week - the paper is filled with a very clear editorial slant (out to show up the “liberals”). It’s perverse. They resent the very readers that saved the paper

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Agreed!

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Romney is and always was a coward. Pardon indeed. "The 2024 election is close and competitive", so true and so frustrating. I realize this isn't the place for the discussion but I would love to know why Biden isn't 10 points ahead at all times. 2024 Trump is the worst candidate ever, does that mean 2024 Biden is the second worst? It's unbelievable to me. Who could possibly be "undecided" between these two candidates at this point? The only new demographic I see that has swung to Trump is young men in the 18-25 range. This seems mainly because of the Trump surrogates they follow/engage with on social media (billionaire bros, crypto bros, MMA bros, etc). The Biden team can't compete in this world. Luckily this group seems least likely to actually vote. Come November I just have to believe this will be an electoral landslide. Anything less will be very disturbing.

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May 16·edited May 16

It's our job to make it the farthest from "close" it can be. As for the reason it's as "close" as it is, the editorial staff at many journalistic outlets - I'm looking at you New York "sole dispenser of truth/holier than thou" Times - are too greedy, cowardly, petty & ego driven to do their goddamn jobs. We'll pick up the pieces. In the mean time for "level headed" coverage, you have to dig for individual contributors or publications like the guardian and the Atlantic. The NYT has a lot of work to do to redeem themselves. C'est la vie.

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PS Sorry for the typos. Damn iPhone

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“The only new demographic I see that has swung to Trump is young men in the 18-25 range.”

In the The Morning NYT newsletter/5/14 there was a piece on the influence of RFK Jr. (Not to be confused with the Upshot newsletter/5/14 link Simon provided about the second poll.) Is your head spinning yet ??

According to the NYT polling “expert”,young males under 30 without a college degree and making under 50k are backing RFK JR. IF this is true and IF they do vote means less votes for Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/briefing/robert-f-kennedy-jr-2024-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sU0.S47X.blPml6Qi2Qo-&smid=url-share

Speaking of RFK JR, a commenter here was lamenting about the amount of RFK signage he was seeing in his community. I haven’t seen a single RFK sign in my area . I also have not seen a single Biden/Harris sign…except in our yard. I do hope those in my Hopium community have joined me or will be joining me soon !!

🪧🏡

👕🛒

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I have my Biden Harris sign up!

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Cheryl, as always, you rock !!🤸💙

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You did a great job in the interview on CNN.. According to the Republican pundit the Democratic masses hate Trump. He got it wrong. We want to save our democracy from the MAGA haters. We want to save our Constitution from a would-be autocrat. Thanks Simon

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Actually I hate Trump AND want to save our nation from a would-be autocrat. It isn't a binary choice. Both can be true at the same time.

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I am doing whatever I can in my small way to work toward re-electing Joe Biden and the Democrats.

I try to stay positive on this forum but sometimes I need to vent about what will happen should Trump win. So give me a little slack this time. I promise I'll be back to keeping the faith very soon.

The debate timings are good decisions. I doubt we will see them. Is he going to be able to stay awake during the debates? Trump is declining daily and his handlers will find a way to work around them. It's why Republicans keep showing up at the court in NYC. They know and their freaking out ever day. This is Trump 2024, not 2016 or 2020!

His dementia is worse and corporate media refuses to use that word while gaslighting us with the narrative of 2 old men. They are old men but with different brains. Biden's brain is aging normally. Trump's brain shows serious signs of dementia. God help us if he ends up in the WH because the decline will be where he won't be able to function but those around him will take over and destroy this country. Anyone who has seen a family member living out the rest of their lives with dementia know what I'm talking about. Enough venting.

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From Dean Gavny on Robert Hubbell this morning 5/16

“Trump spouted this nonsense over this past weekend at a rally:

"we're going to evict this man, the worst president by far. Jimmy Connors is— Jimmy. Jimmy Connors isscodda, he's also happy. Jimmy is a very happy man, both of them, because you know what? they want him out. Jimmy Carter..."

Dean: Tell me again how feeble Biden is.

https://youtu.be/4cZ2rvqRLm8

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Three things that I want to point out. I agree that the race is close, but what Biden is doing is a move of strength, not weakness.

1. Trump has wildly underperformed the polling this year in the primaries that were contested. Other than NC, he underperformed the polling averages by 3% to an astounding 30%. Why do we still think that’s not the case right now?

2. Trump has lost 20% or more of the R vote in closed primaries since Haley dropped out. He cannot win if even 5%of R voters don’t vote for him. Yet the polling says the race is a tie? (See point #1).

3. Team Biden knew what was going on throughout 2020, more so than the chattering classes. And again in 2022. Why would now be any different?

Having a debate on Biden’s terms is a huge win (assuming Trump even shows up).

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Seems to me the mainstream media is doing everything possible to keep this election close. The Trump spectacle is great for ratings. This headline just came up on the Wash Post web page:

"Voters key to past Democratic wins are skeptical and undermotivated."

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Oh that is fine with me if energised & organised Dems are the never reported secret weapon of the election. We can get our props here and in our orgs. Going to mail 25 cards to Florida. Stealth Mode activated!!! Lol

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I am part of 3 different letter- and postcard-writing groups over Zoom. One is based in CA, another in MD, and the third in NY - I'm in NC. I participate through Zoom but all three get together in person as well. Once you are cued in, the magnitude of the effort is obvious, but you are right - most people are totally unaware of any of these efforts to register voters and GOTV for primary, special, and general elections. And that's just for the writers - there are innumerable phone and text-banks as well!

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Agree 1000%, if you are not connected via grassroots orgs, local Dem party, mobilize.us or read the Substacks of our motivators, someone could completely miss the ‘growing political muscle’ machine that is secretly working in stealth mode to bring irrefutable results in Nov. ;-). ‘Keep calm and CAMPAIGN’ HC folks! You are part of something HUGE! Let the press spin fact free narratives. As the RNC de-organises....we keep building, donating, volunteering.

Cheryl as I have said before, you are inspiring! So many people here are!!! Thanks for your comments and commitment! Hug from Winston!

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💙💙💙

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Dear Mitt Romney,

Thank you for your input. But I have news for you: President Biden is already the bigger person. No need to pardon a serial criminal, a rapist, a bigoted autocrat wannabe. He needs no help appearing small or pathetic. And to the Trumpy fellow in the interview, may I just say that it is not “radical” to seek justice for a cheat, to expect equal justice under the law for criminal acts of fraud, espionage, insurrection, or even election interference. It’s the way things are supposed to work in a democratic system (unless you believe our constitution is now “radical.”)

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Btw Trump is already trying to back out of the debates he agreed to, insisting now that he wants a debate in October on Fox. His surrogates now claim that debating in a civil and professional manor without the MAGA favoritism or the ability to rudely interrupt is somehow a “setup.” I seriously believe Trump will find a way to back out and try to blame POTUS, just as he has so far backed out of testifying at his election interference trial by blaming the judge and his gag order.

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May 16·edited May 16

Ex-President Trump despises the idea of a "gag order" or muted microphone when it’s President Biden’s turn to speak. And fact-checkers terrify him!

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Tried to find the Reuters/Ipsos data on likely voters having Biden up 3. All I could find is their data on registered voters showing Biden up by 2 in a two-way race and tied with Trump when RFK, Jr. is included. Where can I find the information in the poll about likely voters?

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It's here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-has-marginal-1-point-lead-over-trump-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2024-03-14/

"They were tied at 46% each among registered voters when respondents were not given an option to vote for a third-party candidate or say they weren't sure who to pick, with 8% refusing to answer the question. Among registered voters who said they were completely certain they would vote in November, Biden had a slight 3 point lead. Only two-thirds of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election in which Biden defeated Trump."

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