I admire Simon for staying neutral in MI-SEN primary out of respect to the broader Hopium community, especially as Haley is a friend and it would be natural for him to endorse her for that reason alone.
But I'll try to make my pitch for why other Proud Plucky Hopium Patriots should support Haley Stevens over El-Sayed:
1. *Electability* - The new poll from Michigan Teachers Association suggests there is an enormous gap in the general election viability between these two candidates (Haley is up 1, El-Sayed is down 10), and nominating El-Sayed would meaningfully reduce our chance of holding this seat.
2. *Character* - Haley Stevens has run a serious and substantive campaign, focusing on the issues and Michiganders, while largely trying to avoid unsubstantiated negative attacks on her opponent. El-Sayed on the other hand has basically called Stevens a corrupt corporate puppet who is only where she is because of AIPAC. It's disgraceful and he should be deeply ashamed of campaigning like this.
3. *Misguided Priorities* - The revelations that El-Sayed voted Uncommitted in 2024 are deeply concerning. The Uncommitted Movement created political momentum on the Gaza issue that I think really hurt Biden then Harris in 2024, and may have been the reason she lost. It was clear that 2024 was going to be an incredibly consequential election, and he was concerned about things other than beating Trump.
4. *Solidarity with Jewish Democrats* - My fear is that an El-Sayed win would accelerate the movement of many beleaguered Jewish Democrats away from the party. I am not Jewish myself and I don't even have particularly strong views on Israel but the idea that Israel is being used as a wedge to do a soft purge of Jewish Democrats infuriates me. Of the people I know who have fought Trump the hardest, a significant percentage of them are Jewish, and the idea that they would be sent a message to pack their backs is an outrage. And I'll add that the people leading the purge are some of the least loyal and most gullible members of the Democratic Coalition, while those being purged are some of the most loyal and dogged members of the Democratic Coalition.
The stakes are too high and we can't afford to support a candidate when the differences between them are so clear.
"The idea that Israel is being used as a wedge to do a soft purge of Jewish Democrats infuriates me."
Thank you for saying this! The accelerating antisemitism in significant parts of the Democratic Party, and especially in the DSA and elsewhere on the Left, is alarming. Unfortunately, this reality is downplayed and dismissed in far too much of the Democratic public discourse.
I spoke out here because I think I'm representative of a group that doesn't get talked about too much: people for whom the Israel/Palestine issue is not that central to our politics. The presumption is that everyone has very strong views (either strongly pro-Israel, or strongly pro-Palestine) and I just don't think that is true.
young people seem to. here in nj i do see palestinian flags a lot and i do see even older white folks sporing free palestine shirts. but i see maga hats too, so what. generally though, it seems the most pro palestinian activists are not from the working classes, but are found on college campuses. anecdotal here.....
In my mind’s eye, I have imagined attending a pro-Palestinian protest. And when the shouts are heard of “Free Gaza”, I would raise my voice and add loudly: “…from Hamas!"
they will swear it is not antisemitism, just anti israeli policy. but its hard not to read anti semitism into some of the aipac bashing, and the attacks on stevens by the left are that she is a tool of aipac. i did read an article that black folks in michigan have not forgotten sayed's uncommitted vote, and the article quoted voters as saying look what we got as a result of that. this will be a clash over who has more votes, the largest muslim community in the country, or the african american community. its not at all clear that the muslim vote was ever loyal to the dems as the black vote; i have read it was evenly split, likely over cultural issues. we'll see.
Conspiracy theories and propaganda are hobbies of mine, and whether they realize it or not, the anti-Israel group is replicating antisemitic conspiracy theories. Here's the explanation given to me by a person who I asked why their defining qualification for being "progressive" was opposing Israel:
"Israel trained and continues to train ICE. All of the major Metropolitan Police Department in the United States have been trained by Israel. Including Richmond. The Virginia Israel advisory board for example perpetuates violations of international law using Virginia taxpayer money to obtain grants and do not represent any constituents in Virginia. The head of their board is a former IDF. The overwhelming influence of AIPAC in the US Congress goes far beyond political lines spending millions of dollars to defeat candidates. The saturation of our politics by Zionist Israeli influences include Israel manufacturing of arms by Israeli companies such as ELBIT. Public Surveillance, Arms manufacturing, pollution violations of DEQ regulations, the platform for data centers. The list would take pages.
And stretches for decades not just in politics but an economic manipulation. Not a matter of political parties."
This all maps neatly onto the standard antisemitic claims of "Jews aren't loyal to the state, they are loyal to the interests of Jews," that Jews are the power behind the throne, politically and economically, that they have a web of influence, etc.
Now, I do not think these people secretly saying to themselves "take antisemitic tropes and replace Jews with Israel for plausible deniability," but I fear they are primed to go full blown antisemite if "Israel," "AIPAC," and "Zionist" are expanded to apply to anything Jewish
I agree and hope Simon addresses this. I’m not sure people understand that the sooner the party addresses this, the better. If we let it linger too long, it’ll fester. Same goes or in coordination with DSA.
People should discuss issues related to 4. in terms of opposition to Netanyahu, not opposition to Israel. Netanyahu's leadership I think long term is going to damage Israel on the world stage, not just in the US but elsewhere as well.
I haven't really followed El-Sayed vs. Stevens closely at all. I would be inclined to support whoever polls best against the GOP candidate in the general election. That appears to be Stevens. There's not much that can be done with DSA-aligned people, or others, who will not want to support Stevens in the general if she beats El-Sayed. What you are saying about Jewish voters also applies to other groups.
Somehow, the idea that political parties are coalitions seems to escape peoples' understanding. We need to win and get people in office who are directionally right (towards progressive values, away from the MAGA right extremists), even if we don't always agree with everything. We don't live in the Soviet Union.
Good morning, all, and thank you for the uplifting post, Simon! What is on my mind is *pacing ourselves* and *taking restorative breaks*. For instance, HCR modeled this in last night's gorgeous photo post (though she works unimaginably hard!), and Jess Craven posts her newsletter 5 days/wk, and one day for good news only.
I wonder if Simon might recruit some guests to write 1 day/week so he can take some time off?
And how about yourself? Do you take small restorative breaks daily? Do you have to read the newspaper daily, or can you take a day off?
YES! Self-care is built into the gun safety movement, by necessity. I force myself to take at least one day a week, and walk my steps every day. Eat mindfully, put down devices when speaking with others. All these little things make a BIG difference.
Guest writer=great idea! Contrarian & Bulwark are doing it. Simon could have them be topical posts so not as time-sensitive, and then he and/or Lincoln could edit. Wouldn't have to be that often. Just a thought...
I *try* to check out from the whole sh*tshow over the weekend, then focus on local, state, and climate news on Monday and Tuesday. I always read Jess Craven's good news round up on Monday morning, which helps a lot!
And yes, exercise and meditation are getting me through this!
Wow the sanctions bill! I hadn’t mentioned that to n my calls in quite awhile.
Called in both Cornyn and Cruz to block Blanche. Tillis set a condition regarding Epstein and now Cornyn has set a condition regarding the Jan 6 slush fund. We’ll see what happens.
“Blanche did not appear for a planned morning meeting in Cornyn’s office, and the senator told reporters that time was running out for Blanche to meet his demand to formally modify the settlement Trump reached with the IRS earlier this year — a key ultimatum the Texas Republican set out after Blanche’s confirmation hearing earlier this month.”
Keep calling to help strengthen Cornyn’s resolve….
A little self reporting. Had a great time last week at a conference where we hit some doors for candidates this cycle and attended a training designed for candidates in next year's races. I used to work in field and manage campaigns and it was refreshing and inspiring to see how focused everyone was and how seriously they took electoral organizing. The sessions were informative and grounding and a great thing to do while it was pouring outside. With the weather finally improving this weekend, I see more canvassing in my future.
All this is good for us. And yet it puzzles and pains me that the Democratic Party’s own approval ratings are also in the tank! To me this seems like a mammoth disconnect in the minds of voters – one which I hope and pray Trump and the MAGA-Republican Party, with their giant war chest do not find a way to exploit ahead of the Midterm Elections.
A/S, people need to stop talking about that data as if it's relevant to what is happening, for it is being used as a bludgeon to beat up the Establishment party. All the measures of our strength are improving. Our numbers are opening up. The focus on our approval to the exclusion of all this other data has become the equivalent of gaslighting by folks inside our family.
Thank you for underscoring this. I am by no means suggesting that this is a credible counter to the massive data that you present above! And I wholeheartedly agree that any myopic focus on this one metric is tantamount to gaslighting.
But I do believe this points the way to the likeliest GOP Midterms strategy – a strategy that I believe will massively fail.
i like that response....approval is one data point. its like having borderline cholesterol but scans say your arteries are clear. the latter is the most important metric.
Uplifting to read the new poll numbers and, especially, to note the consistent trend among numerous different pollsters. As you predicted, Simon, Ds are also expanding their lead on the generic Congressional ballot as the election gets closer. The deterioration of Trump's support among Rs is especially encouraging. They may not vote for us but helpful if they just stay home. Hoping you can add the new Talarico poll showing him five points ahead of Paxton; came out yesterday, I think.
All these positive trends make me even more annoyed by the attacks on Ken Martin. We're in the middle of an enormously consequential campaign season. No matter what you think of Martin and the job he's done/is doing, at least have the intelligence to hold your fire until after the election. Maybe his critics think that if we have a huge win in November then they'll have less firepower to direct at Martin. Whatever their motivation, this public airing of such disagreements with 98 days to go before the election is counter-productive and just plain wrong, imo.
Thanks Simon for today's news, things are looking up and I hope that the messaging, like Speaker Jeffries demoed over the weekend is getting more attention and agreement. Like you, I am really tired of the "Democrats suck" narrative and its seems like Pod Save America continues to be among the biggest group doing this, its why I'm following Hopium, contributing to candidates and state parties directly and writing lots of GOTV letters via Votefwd. I also contributed to Troy Jackson's campaign today. Let's bring this home and roll up the score, so to speak, in the forthcoming elections! Thank you!
All of this is encouraging for those standing up to rescue our democracy and our future.
Can’t get distracted or ease up. I had dinner with congressman Joaquin Castro in San Antonio Saturday (we go back 25 years). He is confident of Dems regaining the House. But. He wonders: what will Trump do to sabotage the election? Will he try to nullify the results? (Evil people will do evil things)
That’s why folks like Marc Elias and Simon offer the best strategy… work like hell to build huge winning margins. That’s the best way to prevail.
He’s got an interesting background. Single mother. Rosie was a community activist. San Antonio’s west side. Joaquin and twin Julian landed at Stanford before Harvard Law.
Julian elected to San Antonio
City council while Joaquin landed in the Texas House. They were under 30. Julian was elected San Antonio mayor before serving in the Obama Cabinet. Joaquin went to Congress in 2013
“'We’re preparing for the bottom to fall out,' a GOP operative working on midterm races told Playbook." How much worse does it have to get for these dimwits to see the bottom is gone for them?
In the words of the late great 1980 Olympic gold medal hockey team coach, Herb Brooks… “Great moments are born from great opportunities. That’s what we have here tonight. That’s what we have earned here tonight.”
I just wanna take a moment restate some things I’ve said many times in my commentary here… I’m no different from anyone else in the family, I have complaints and more than a few suggestions for how the party could be better. But I’ve always been proud to be a Democrat, and I’m most proud to be one now.
The virtue of the Democratic Party in modern times isn’t it’s perfection… On the contrary, it’s nowhere close. The virtue of the Democratic Party is that as a living breathing entity, we have evolved with the times and become better. As the United States has become bigger, more complex, more diverse, and better by any metric any reasonable observer could point to, the Democratic Party has followed suit by becoming all of those same things.
We took our medicine and paid a steep political price for nearly 30 years after passing the Civil Rights Act and the voting rights act. We don’t deserve nor should we ask for fanfare or curtain calls for that… It was the absolute least that could or should have been done a century earlier than it got done and really we should never as a society been in a situation where it was necessary to begin with.
But the moment presented itself where it COULD be done… some of the bravest Americans who’ve ever lived and whose names most of us will never know worked tirelessly for 100 years building the opportunity to end the Jim Crow South, and the leader of our party at the time, fully aware of the political ramifications that would come with it and the atomic bomb it was going to detonate inside our traditional political coalition, met that moment when history called.
Republicans won 49 states twice between 1968 and 1992… They won more than 40 states two more times, and they won two squeakers, one of which happened in the wake of a scandal so serious that their president resigned in disgrace from the office to avoid being removed through impeachment for the first time in our history. That’s how strong of a backlash meeting that moment in history created from the ugly white supremacist strain of our society. And the Republicans shamefully moved in and actively recruited them into their political coalition in the name of winning power instead of helping us build a culture where that was a fringe and unacceptable social belief system.
They turned their backs on the idea that we are all born equal, and then used that very premise to divide the country in every way they possibly could in order to secure power.
I said recently and I must reiterate, there could be no greater betrayal of the legacy of the man who put their party on the map, Abraham Lincoln, than to divide this country intentionally and actively pursue backsliding of the progress we made against white supremacy and toward equality. My God, Abraham Lincoln is known for precisely two things… Saving the union, and ending slavery. And what’s equally important, is that after 70+ years of governance under the constitution, which was an operators manual for property owners at the time, he brought our original mission statement back into our public discourse.
He reminded us that before we wrote the constitution, we fought a bloody war to secure our independence based on a belief that all are created equal. And when you remember that, the most important part of the constitution becomes the preamble… So much of what’s in the constitution is shameful and needs to be updated through amendments, but the preamble harkens back to the Declaration… It acknowledges that we are not perfect and never will be, but that the entire purpose of the United States is to improve upon ourselves… To create a more perfect union.
How could a political party betray their roots and their greatest legacy to history more than these venal, malevolent, power hungry, greedy, disgraceful so-called “leaders“ have?
The Democratic Party knew in 1965 that they were setting themselves up for a very difficult road winning national elections for some time to come in 1965, but history called… And they met the moment.
Bill Clinton knew he was putting our majorities in Congress at risk by raising taxes on the wealthy and making targeted spending cuts in order to secure a balanced budget for the first time since 1969, but the deficit was driving interest rates up and log jamming the economy, and the baby boom retirement was going to be an enormous burden on our system if we didn’t get debt and deficits under control and prove that it can be done. History called, and he met the moment.
Barack Obama knew that we would face a potential very damaging backlash if we took on healthcare, but it was unconscionable to continue down the road where 50 million people had no coverage, and where the rest that did could be denied coverage for the very conditions they most needed health insurance for in the first place. History called and he met the moment.
I could go on and on with other examples that aren’t quite as dramatic but equally important illustrations of Democratic leaders, in the White House, in the Congress, and in the courts, who recognized when history was calling, and in spite of the negative repercussions that would come in the short term, met the moment.
We are not and never will be perfect, but we have a grand modern history that I am proud to be a part of…a legacy of history calling… And we meet the moment… And we become better.
History is calling… Let’s do what Democrats always do in the modern age… Let’s meet the moment.
Simon, thank you for the good polling news! Has the House already passed the Russian sanctions?
I was shocked to read this morning that Trump has announced that he will be taking steps to raise the amount Medicare patients must spend on drugs. Way to win the election, Mr. "Affordability is a Made Up Word."
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say absolutely do not raise my Medicare costs. I'm working on postcards to Ohio voters.
This needs to get a lot of play. No way seniors are going to be okay with this change to Plan D. My husband needed specific eye drops - get this, the co pay was $900! No way could we afford it. Fortunately, after some back and forth, we were able to get the eye drops through the manufacturer but it took several calls.
The eye drops issue we faced is not related to what Trump wants to cut BUT it is an indication of how crazy expensive prescription drugs cost.
Has anyone seen Mitch…
Spending a lot of time plugging the new book from Meidas apparently 🤣🤣🤣
https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3mrqsexj35k2a
Absolutely loving this new campaign ad from Josh Turek, along with the Obama endorsement of course!!!
https://bsky.app/profile/joshturek4iowa.bsky.social/post/3mrrsjqta522f
OMG that's great! Love BHO shooting hoops!
Great ad! Love it!
Holy Toledo, Batman, those are some BAD numbers!
Working on self-care, reading, postcards and catching up on household stuff.
Will make the calls and looking forward to the call this evening. Keep going!
"just 19% of Republicans say they’re enthusiastic about the rest of his second term" my gosh
what a win for us!!
(copied from a comment of mine yesterday -> https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/voters-blame-trumprs-for-higher-costs/comment/303820165)
I admire Simon for staying neutral in MI-SEN primary out of respect to the broader Hopium community, especially as Haley is a friend and it would be natural for him to endorse her for that reason alone.
But I'll try to make my pitch for why other Proud Plucky Hopium Patriots should support Haley Stevens over El-Sayed:
1. *Electability* - The new poll from Michigan Teachers Association suggests there is an enormous gap in the general election viability between these two candidates (Haley is up 1, El-Sayed is down 10), and nominating El-Sayed would meaningfully reduce our chance of holding this seat.
2. *Character* - Haley Stevens has run a serious and substantive campaign, focusing on the issues and Michiganders, while largely trying to avoid unsubstantiated negative attacks on her opponent. El-Sayed on the other hand has basically called Stevens a corrupt corporate puppet who is only where she is because of AIPAC. It's disgraceful and he should be deeply ashamed of campaigning like this.
3. *Misguided Priorities* - The revelations that El-Sayed voted Uncommitted in 2024 are deeply concerning. The Uncommitted Movement created political momentum on the Gaza issue that I think really hurt Biden then Harris in 2024, and may have been the reason she lost. It was clear that 2024 was going to be an incredibly consequential election, and he was concerned about things other than beating Trump.
4. *Solidarity with Jewish Democrats* - My fear is that an El-Sayed win would accelerate the movement of many beleaguered Jewish Democrats away from the party. I am not Jewish myself and I don't even have particularly strong views on Israel but the idea that Israel is being used as a wedge to do a soft purge of Jewish Democrats infuriates me. Of the people I know who have fought Trump the hardest, a significant percentage of them are Jewish, and the idea that they would be sent a message to pack their backs is an outrage. And I'll add that the people leading the purge are some of the least loyal and most gullible members of the Democratic Coalition, while those being purged are some of the most loyal and dogged members of the Democratic Coalition.
The stakes are too high and we can't afford to support a candidate when the differences between them are so clear.
"The idea that Israel is being used as a wedge to do a soft purge of Jewish Democrats infuriates me."
Thank you for saying this! The accelerating antisemitism in significant parts of the Democratic Party, and especially in the DSA and elsewhere on the Left, is alarming. Unfortunately, this reality is downplayed and dismissed in far too much of the Democratic public discourse.
I agree it is alarming.
I spoke out here because I think I'm representative of a group that doesn't get talked about too much: people for whom the Israel/Palestine issue is not that central to our politics. The presumption is that everyone has very strong views (either strongly pro-Israel, or strongly pro-Palestine) and I just don't think that is true.
young people seem to. here in nj i do see palestinian flags a lot and i do see even older white folks sporing free palestine shirts. but i see maga hats too, so what. generally though, it seems the most pro palestinian activists are not from the working classes, but are found on college campuses. anecdotal here.....
In my mind’s eye, I have imagined attending a pro-Palestinian protest. And when the shouts are heard of “Free Gaza”, I would raise my voice and add loudly: “…from Hamas!"
my reply to Arctic:
imo a lot of it is provocateurs trying to divide us
they will swear it is not antisemitism, just anti israeli policy. but its hard not to read anti semitism into some of the aipac bashing, and the attacks on stevens by the left are that she is a tool of aipac. i did read an article that black folks in michigan have not forgotten sayed's uncommitted vote, and the article quoted voters as saying look what we got as a result of that. this will be a clash over who has more votes, the largest muslim community in the country, or the african american community. its not at all clear that the muslim vote was ever loyal to the dems as the black vote; i have read it was evenly split, likely over cultural issues. we'll see.
Conspiracy theories and propaganda are hobbies of mine, and whether they realize it or not, the anti-Israel group is replicating antisemitic conspiracy theories. Here's the explanation given to me by a person who I asked why their defining qualification for being "progressive" was opposing Israel:
"Israel trained and continues to train ICE. All of the major Metropolitan Police Department in the United States have been trained by Israel. Including Richmond. The Virginia Israel advisory board for example perpetuates violations of international law using Virginia taxpayer money to obtain grants and do not represent any constituents in Virginia. The head of their board is a former IDF. The overwhelming influence of AIPAC in the US Congress goes far beyond political lines spending millions of dollars to defeat candidates. The saturation of our politics by Zionist Israeli influences include Israel manufacturing of arms by Israeli companies such as ELBIT. Public Surveillance, Arms manufacturing, pollution violations of DEQ regulations, the platform for data centers. The list would take pages.
And stretches for decades not just in politics but an economic manipulation. Not a matter of political parties."
This all maps neatly onto the standard antisemitic claims of "Jews aren't loyal to the state, they are loyal to the interests of Jews," that Jews are the power behind the throne, politically and economically, that they have a web of influence, etc.
Now, I do not think these people secretly saying to themselves "take antisemitic tropes and replace Jews with Israel for plausible deniability," but I fear they are primed to go full blown antisemite if "Israel," "AIPAC," and "Zionist" are expanded to apply to anything Jewish
imo a lot of it is provocateurs trying to divide us
Yes
I agree and hope Simon addresses this. I’m not sure people understand that the sooner the party addresses this, the better. If we let it linger too long, it’ll fester. Same goes or in coordination with DSA.
People should discuss issues related to 4. in terms of opposition to Netanyahu, not opposition to Israel. Netanyahu's leadership I think long term is going to damage Israel on the world stage, not just in the US but elsewhere as well.
I haven't really followed El-Sayed vs. Stevens closely at all. I would be inclined to support whoever polls best against the GOP candidate in the general election. That appears to be Stevens. There's not much that can be done with DSA-aligned people, or others, who will not want to support Stevens in the general if she beats El-Sayed. What you are saying about Jewish voters also applies to other groups.
Somehow, the idea that political parties are coalitions seems to escape peoples' understanding. We need to win and get people in office who are directionally right (towards progressive values, away from the MAGA right extremists), even if we don't always agree with everything. We don't live in the Soviet Union.
Good morning, all, and thank you for the uplifting post, Simon! What is on my mind is *pacing ourselves* and *taking restorative breaks*. For instance, HCR modeled this in last night's gorgeous photo post (though she works unimaginably hard!), and Jess Craven posts her newsletter 5 days/wk, and one day for good news only.
I wonder if Simon might recruit some guests to write 1 day/week so he can take some time off?
And how about yourself? Do you take small restorative breaks daily? Do you have to read the newspaper daily, or can you take a day off?
YES! Self-care is built into the gun safety movement, by necessity. I force myself to take at least one day a week, and walk my steps every day. Eat mindfully, put down devices when speaking with others. All these little things make a BIG difference.
Guest writer=great idea! Contrarian & Bulwark are doing it. Simon could have them be topical posts so not as time-sensitive, and then he and/or Lincoln could edit. Wouldn't have to be that often. Just a thought...
I *try* to check out from the whole sh*tshow over the weekend, then focus on local, state, and climate news on Monday and Tuesday. I always read Jess Craven's good news round up on Monday morning, which helps a lot!
And yes, exercise and meditation are getting me through this!
Wow the sanctions bill! I hadn’t mentioned that to n my calls in quite awhile.
Called in both Cornyn and Cruz to block Blanche. Tillis set a condition regarding Epstein and now Cornyn has set a condition regarding the Jan 6 slush fund. We’ll see what happens.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/29/congress/todd-blanche-cornyn-deal-01015144
“Blanche did not appear for a planned morning meeting in Cornyn’s office, and the senator told reporters that time was running out for Blanche to meet his demand to formally modify the settlement Trump reached with the IRS earlier this year — a key ultimatum the Texas Republican set out after Blanche’s confirmation hearing earlier this month.”
Keep calling to help strengthen Cornyn’s resolve….
A little self reporting. Had a great time last week at a conference where we hit some doors for candidates this cycle and attended a training designed for candidates in next year's races. I used to work in field and manage campaigns and it was refreshing and inspiring to see how focused everyone was and how seriously they took electoral organizing. The sessions were informative and grounding and a great thing to do while it was pouring outside. With the weather finally improving this weekend, I see more canvassing in my future.
All this is good for us. And yet it puzzles and pains me that the Democratic Party’s own approval ratings are also in the tank! To me this seems like a mammoth disconnect in the minds of voters – one which I hope and pray Trump and the MAGA-Republican Party, with their giant war chest do not find a way to exploit ahead of the Midterm Elections.
https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/favorability/democratic-party
A/S, people need to stop talking about that data as if it's relevant to what is happening, for it is being used as a bludgeon to beat up the Establishment party. All the measures of our strength are improving. Our numbers are opening up. The focus on our approval to the exclusion of all this other data has become the equivalent of gaslighting by folks inside our family.
Thank you for underscoring this. I am by no means suggesting that this is a credible counter to the massive data that you present above! And I wholeheartedly agree that any myopic focus on this one metric is tantamount to gaslighting.
But I do believe this points the way to the likeliest GOP Midterms strategy – a strategy that I believe will massively fail.
Onwards!
i like that response....approval is one data point. its like having borderline cholesterol but scans say your arteries are clear. the latter is the most important metric.
Uplifting to read the new poll numbers and, especially, to note the consistent trend among numerous different pollsters. As you predicted, Simon, Ds are also expanding their lead on the generic Congressional ballot as the election gets closer. The deterioration of Trump's support among Rs is especially encouraging. They may not vote for us but helpful if they just stay home. Hoping you can add the new Talarico poll showing him five points ahead of Paxton; came out yesterday, I think.
All these positive trends make me even more annoyed by the attacks on Ken Martin. We're in the middle of an enormously consequential campaign season. No matter what you think of Martin and the job he's done/is doing, at least have the intelligence to hold your fire until after the election. Maybe his critics think that if we have a huge win in November then they'll have less firepower to direct at Martin. Whatever their motivation, this public airing of such disagreements with 98 days to go before the election is counter-productive and just plain wrong, imo.
Let's fight and beat Rs instead of ourselves!
100% on Ken Martin's critics, KBH. NOT NOW.
I also think some of the negativity re Martin is right-wing shenanigans, just like w the "message" polling. I don't put anything past these MFers.
There does appear to be concerted effort to attack Martin and the DNC. Makes me wonder why the NYT did a hit piece. hmmm
Thanks Simon for today's news, things are looking up and I hope that the messaging, like Speaker Jeffries demoed over the weekend is getting more attention and agreement. Like you, I am really tired of the "Democrats suck" narrative and its seems like Pod Save America continues to be among the biggest group doing this, its why I'm following Hopium, contributing to candidates and state parties directly and writing lots of GOTV letters via Votefwd. I also contributed to Troy Jackson's campaign today. Let's bring this home and roll up the score, so to speak, in the forthcoming elections! Thank you!
All of this is encouraging for those standing up to rescue our democracy and our future.
Can’t get distracted or ease up. I had dinner with congressman Joaquin Castro in San Antonio Saturday (we go back 25 years). He is confident of Dems regaining the House. But. He wonders: what will Trump do to sabotage the election? Will he try to nullify the results? (Evil people will do evil things)
That’s why folks like Marc Elias and Simon offer the best strategy… work like hell to build huge winning margins. That’s the best way to prevail.
Gary - Joaquin Castro was a beacon of brightness when I lived in Texas. Tell him thank you for me next time you see him.
Kent, Where did you live? I will text him later.
He’s got an interesting background. Single mother. Rosie was a community activist. San Antonio’s west side. Joaquin and twin Julian landed at Stanford before Harvard Law.
Julian elected to San Antonio
City council while Joaquin landed in the Texas House. They were under 30. Julian was elected San Antonio mayor before serving in the Obama Cabinet. Joaquin went to Congress in 2013
LOVE the Castro brothers!
“'We’re preparing for the bottom to fall out,' a GOP operative working on midterm races told Playbook." How much worse does it have to get for these dimwits to see the bottom is gone for them?
"Preparing for the bottom to fall out" translates to "looking for a job".
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-struggle-to-rally-chips-hynix-oil-up-fed-decision
In the words of the late great 1980 Olympic gold medal hockey team coach, Herb Brooks… “Great moments are born from great opportunities. That’s what we have here tonight. That’s what we have earned here tonight.”
I just wanna take a moment restate some things I’ve said many times in my commentary here… I’m no different from anyone else in the family, I have complaints and more than a few suggestions for how the party could be better. But I’ve always been proud to be a Democrat, and I’m most proud to be one now.
The virtue of the Democratic Party in modern times isn’t it’s perfection… On the contrary, it’s nowhere close. The virtue of the Democratic Party is that as a living breathing entity, we have evolved with the times and become better. As the United States has become bigger, more complex, more diverse, and better by any metric any reasonable observer could point to, the Democratic Party has followed suit by becoming all of those same things.
We took our medicine and paid a steep political price for nearly 30 years after passing the Civil Rights Act and the voting rights act. We don’t deserve nor should we ask for fanfare or curtain calls for that… It was the absolute least that could or should have been done a century earlier than it got done and really we should never as a society been in a situation where it was necessary to begin with.
But the moment presented itself where it COULD be done… some of the bravest Americans who’ve ever lived and whose names most of us will never know worked tirelessly for 100 years building the opportunity to end the Jim Crow South, and the leader of our party at the time, fully aware of the political ramifications that would come with it and the atomic bomb it was going to detonate inside our traditional political coalition, met that moment when history called.
Republicans won 49 states twice between 1968 and 1992… They won more than 40 states two more times, and they won two squeakers, one of which happened in the wake of a scandal so serious that their president resigned in disgrace from the office to avoid being removed through impeachment for the first time in our history. That’s how strong of a backlash meeting that moment in history created from the ugly white supremacist strain of our society. And the Republicans shamefully moved in and actively recruited them into their political coalition in the name of winning power instead of helping us build a culture where that was a fringe and unacceptable social belief system.
They turned their backs on the idea that we are all born equal, and then used that very premise to divide the country in every way they possibly could in order to secure power.
I said recently and I must reiterate, there could be no greater betrayal of the legacy of the man who put their party on the map, Abraham Lincoln, than to divide this country intentionally and actively pursue backsliding of the progress we made against white supremacy and toward equality. My God, Abraham Lincoln is known for precisely two things… Saving the union, and ending slavery. And what’s equally important, is that after 70+ years of governance under the constitution, which was an operators manual for property owners at the time, he brought our original mission statement back into our public discourse.
He reminded us that before we wrote the constitution, we fought a bloody war to secure our independence based on a belief that all are created equal. And when you remember that, the most important part of the constitution becomes the preamble… So much of what’s in the constitution is shameful and needs to be updated through amendments, but the preamble harkens back to the Declaration… It acknowledges that we are not perfect and never will be, but that the entire purpose of the United States is to improve upon ourselves… To create a more perfect union.
How could a political party betray their roots and their greatest legacy to history more than these venal, malevolent, power hungry, greedy, disgraceful so-called “leaders“ have?
The Democratic Party knew in 1965 that they were setting themselves up for a very difficult road winning national elections for some time to come in 1965, but history called… And they met the moment.
Bill Clinton knew he was putting our majorities in Congress at risk by raising taxes on the wealthy and making targeted spending cuts in order to secure a balanced budget for the first time since 1969, but the deficit was driving interest rates up and log jamming the economy, and the baby boom retirement was going to be an enormous burden on our system if we didn’t get debt and deficits under control and prove that it can be done. History called, and he met the moment.
Barack Obama knew that we would face a potential very damaging backlash if we took on healthcare, but it was unconscionable to continue down the road where 50 million people had no coverage, and where the rest that did could be denied coverage for the very conditions they most needed health insurance for in the first place. History called and he met the moment.
I could go on and on with other examples that aren’t quite as dramatic but equally important illustrations of Democratic leaders, in the White House, in the Congress, and in the courts, who recognized when history was calling, and in spite of the negative repercussions that would come in the short term, met the moment.
We are not and never will be perfect, but we have a grand modern history that I am proud to be a part of…a legacy of history calling… And we meet the moment… And we become better.
History is calling… Let’s do what Democrats always do in the modern age… Let’s meet the moment.
Much love to you all 🔵🇺🇸
Simon, thank you for the good polling news! Has the House already passed the Russian sanctions?
I was shocked to read this morning that Trump has announced that he will be taking steps to raise the amount Medicare patients must spend on drugs. Way to win the election, Mr. "Affordability is a Made Up Word."
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say absolutely do not raise my Medicare costs. I'm working on postcards to Ohio voters.
This needs to get a lot of play. No way seniors are going to be okay with this change to Plan D. My husband needed specific eye drops - get this, the co pay was $900! No way could we afford it. Fortunately, after some back and forth, we were able to get the eye drops through the manufacturer but it took several calls.
The eye drops issue we faced is not related to what Trump wants to cut BUT it is an indication of how crazy expensive prescription drugs cost.