The American People Are Putting Their Trust Once Again In Democrats. They Are Giving Us An Opportunity To Lead. We Must Seize It, Together

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET/welcome new subscribers!

Morning everyone. In my weekly video and political analysis last week, Trump Is A Titanic F*ck Up. Things Are Bad For Him And Republicans Now. They Are Likely To Get Worse, I argued the resumption of the war and higher gas prices would likely end up making things, as bad as they already were for Trump and the Rs, far worse in the closing days of the election. Let’s recall that quote from a Republican political operative in Politico Playbook from a few days ago:

“We’re preparing for the bottom to fall out,” a GOP operative working on midterm races told Playbook.

Well, my friends, data we’ve gotten this past week sure makes it look like things are getting worse for Trump and the Republicans - that the bottom may indeed be falling out. In each of these polls below, all released in recent days, Trump is at the lowest point in his rancid second term:

All these new polls showing downward movement for Trump has driven FiftyPlusOne’s job approval tracker to drop to -24 for the first time time this term. Yes, our rapacious leader keeps crashing through floors and finding new bottoms:

The new CNN poll released this morning has devastating findings for Trump and the Republicans. It appears I’m not the only one who thinks Trump is a titanic f*ck up:

Just read these passages from CNN’s analysis of their poll. They’re incredible:

Trump’s overall approval rating, 34%, matches the career low he last saw at the close of his first term, following the January 6, 2021, insurrection. Half of Americans now strongly disapprove of him, a high across his terms, with a record-low 15% strongly approving.

Within his own party, his approval rating has hit a new low at 78% among Republicans, and just 19% of Republicans say they’re enthusiastic about the rest of his second term, down from 38% last spring.

While his ratings are underwater across a range of issues tested, Trump sees his lowest numbers on a trio of interconnected issues: Just 28% approve of his handling of the situation in Iran, 25% on inflation and 21% on gas prices, with significant pockets of disapproval even among his supporters.

With an increasing majority of Americans anticipating a long-term military conflict, only about one-quarter think Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation, down from 40% at the start of the war. And 62% now say Trump is not an effective world leader, up from 54% who felt that way early in his second term.

Just one-quarter now say the war has been worth the toll in American lives and dollars, with younger Americans particularly skeptical…….

…….Just 39% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, a relative positive at the start of his second term, with 35% approving of his management of the federal government.

Following two recent deadly ICE shootings, Americans say by a 20-point margin that the agency is making cities less, not more, safe. And amid the cyclospora outbreak and a surge in measles cases, they say by a 34-point margin that changes to health agencies like the FDA and CDC are leaving the public less, not more, safe.

Just wow. Wow.

It appears we have a failed Presidency on our hands everyone.

There has been perhaps no greater example of how much the political projects of Trump and Greater MAGA (Trump, Putin, Bibi) are crashing than Zelenskyy’s huge win in the Senate last night, getting an 86-12 vote for an aggressive new round of sanctions on Putin, an event that wildly overshadowed Bibi’s visit to the Capital yesterday:

Yesterday the world saw Zelenskyy triumphant in Washington, DC - not Trump, not Putin, not Bibi. And it was glorious to see.

Finally, it is critical to note the American people are not just rejecting Trump and the Republicans. What we are seeing in all this new data is that after letting the American people down in 2024 voters are once again placing their trust in us, giving us a shot to lead and find a better path for the country.

Let’s look at the data. In the past week we seen our lead in the generic ballot grow in many polls, regularly landing now in the low 50s. In polling our lead had been consistently between 3 and 6 points. That is no longer true:

Remember what Fox told us about their generic ballot last week:

Notably, 53% is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996

In that poll last week Fox found that Democrats had become more trusted on all the issues that matter in the election, results that are confirmed in these other new polls. This is the American people placing their trust in us, again:

Fox also noted in their analysis that this 9 point lead for Democrats on the economy was our largest lead on this issue in their polling since 2006, twenty years ago.

There is perhaps no greater sign of how the American people are now looking to us to lead, and giving us a shot at governing than the data we are seeing in the Senate races now, even in Trump +10 states. These voters are not just rejecting Republicans. They are embracing our candidates:

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an analysis called

It’s Time To Move On From The “Democrats Suck” Narrative - It’s Wrong, And We Have An Election To Win

In it I argued that the narrative we hear coursing through our discourse about the Democratic Party being failed and unpopular is simply not consistent with where voters are now, or frankly where they’ve been in hundreds of state, local, and special elections throughout the US these past eighteen months. It may have been true at one point, and yes a few incumbents lost their elections, but as this data conclusively shows it is simply no longer true. The American people are putting their trust in the “Establishment” Democratic Party once again. They are now giving us an opportunity to lead and find a better day for this great country.

Here at Hopium let us us commit to seize this opportunity, together. Let’s fight and win these elections my friends, and then work to implement the agenda Leader Jeffries articulated on Sunday - lower costs and create more opportunity; make quality, affordable health care available to the American people; and rigorously hold Trump and his allies to account for their lawlessness, corruption and historic betrayal of the American people……

Paid subscribers will gather tonight at 7pm ET to talk about all this, and yes, it is that time, everyone…..

Time To Seize The Opportunity We’ve Been Given, Together!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Special Fund To Rush Troy Jackson $100,000 By August 10th - Donate Today! | $59,400 raised, $50,000 original goal, $100,000 new stretch goal | Friends we hit our original $50,000 goal in the first 24 hours of this new campaign to get Troy Jackson the resources to staff up, build out his campaign, and beat Susan Collins. Amazing - thank you all!

We aren’t stopping here - this early money really matters, and I want to now try to get to $100,000 by Friday, August 7th. Chip in today!

Our Winning The House Campaign - $1,021,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund (Newly Expanded) - $225,100 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from recent primaries and need a bit more help. Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here. We are off to a great start here everyone!

Winning The Senate - $582,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), Troy Jackson (ME), and Josh Turek (IA). Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $25,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with Georgia Dem Chair Charlie Bailey to get a terrific overview of the opportunities we have in Georgia this cycle

Winning Iowa - $27,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party | Watch my new interview with the great Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party Rita Hart to get an overview of why this is a year of such opportunity in Iowa

Winning Maine - $74,100 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | We set up this fund to help the Maine Dems get through our nominating process. With this community’s strong response we put up almost a third of the resources needed for what became a very successful process to pick a nominee. We had a big return on this investment - thank you all! | Watch our interview with the inspiring Executive Director of the Maine Dems Devon Murphy-Anderson | We are keeping this fund up for we behind in Maine and need to keep building our momentum there

Winning Ohio - $182,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $639,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year; learn more about how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January; bring our Resolutions Project to your community; fight for Hopium’s Agenda today and everyday; become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

Many are asking about the news coming from the DNC these days. Rather than commenting I will let Chair Ken Martin speak for himself through a new memo he just published, The DNC Is Building a Democratic Party That Can Win the Moment and Win the Future. It is well worth your time.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections to win, together! - Simon