Barbara, not exactly sure what you are looking at but dozens of polls taken in the past few weeks have the race within margin of error. So as I wrote today the election is close and competitive. The Economist poll average has Biden slightly ahead today. And remember there are a lot of GOP aligned polls in 538 that should be heavily discounted as they we are once again seeing, as we did in 2022, R polling coming in 2-5 pts more Republican than the independent polls. My view is that the election has improved for us by 1-2 points in the last six weeks, as all of us had expected. Whether it keeps moving in our direction in the coming weeks we will see. But it is longer consistent with the data we have in front of us to say Trump leads, particularly when Biden has led in 16 polls over the last few weeks.
Finally, as we learned in 2022, we have to be cautious with polls averages, as a few +4, +5 R polls can push the average to the right. I am no longer a big fan of averages, as I think it is a cheat that can distort as well as inform.
Simon -- Introduce yourself to Robert Reich and his hundreds of thousands of followers who were exposed to the bull that is the WSJ poll. I advised them to chill.
Simon, so glad you are so visible. I was listening to Pivot and Kara started going down the rabbit hole of polls with DT leading. Fortunately her son was on and mentioned he was at the NYT when you were interviewed to give your take on the polls. He is a great your advocate for Joe and Democracy.
I’m sharing this widely. There is such attitude out there. And we need facts not people trying to sell negatives for profit. We are all better off with Democrats. I look forward to that happening again when, along with our great President Biden, we once again in Ohio re-elect Senator Sherrod Brown. One of the best ever.
Hate to use the old Nixon term, but the “nattering nabobs of nagativism” are always at it.
Please do not forget Sherrod Brown's campaign for the Senate in Ohio. We cannot loose this seat, Sherrod does a fabulous job for the people. Ohio already has one idiot Republican Senator and another would be disastrous.
I was so disappointed OH elected that fake, J. D. Vance, the last election cycle. Hopefully Sherrod Brown will be able to beat the MAGA candidate who won your primary.
I am so disappointed that Ron Johnson is a Wisconsin senator. Tragic that he defeated Russ Feingold, and tragic that Mandela Barnes failed to win in 2022.
Likely the same reason NC elected Ted Budd instead of Cherie Beasley - insufficient voter turnout in blue areas to overcome the turnout in red areas with some amount of racism thrown in. Aren't Confederate flags really popular in rural WI?
I became a Simon fan at the 2020 election. I saw him on the YouTube station The Meidas Touch and he was the only positive person about Biden winning. He also said that the Republicans were too far behind to have early voting work for them. I believe that has proven to be true. I do not listen to polls after the 2016 fiasco. Whether you like Biden or not it has come down to one thing Biden or Trump. It is about what is happening HERE before we move on to outside the U.S. I continue to be on the positive wave based on facts supported by Simon. Yes, work to do but I believe we got this.
Can’t wait to see you in Maricopa County! Looking forward to hearing your optimism at the event and getting us all extra jazzed. We are pretty solid Dems here! 💙
Question: is it time to crystallize all of this into a “Daisy” type of message that grabs people by the neck as that 1964 spot did v Goldwater?
We’ve got the Jan 6th mob attack on our democracy and police officers; (Karl Rove is right for a change)… we’ve got the attack on women’s freedom/reproductive health care; we’ve got gun violence that Trump denies; we’ve got climate change horrors that Trump denies; we’ve got Trump pal-ing around with Putin and other strongman autocrats; we’ve got Biden’s strong economy/jobs; infrastructure/better and safer roads and bridges; we’ve got Biden’s CHIP manufacturing; Biden’s lower prescription drug prices … etc
We have evil personified in Trump.
Connect all the dots for a “Daisy” type message to grab people by the throats.
Look. Money also serves as psychological strategy and ground operations BUT money does not always win elections. Voters win elections and even uneducated voters count. So, all I am focusing on is that the messaging and education of an uneducated electorate must be direct and simple and entertaining. Smart pundits in DC are seen as enemies of the people. Uneducated voters need to see for example farmers losing their farms because no one wants to work for them and immigrants can farming restored for farmer. One way to do that is to create tax incentives for farmer that hire immigrants and provide revenue sharing for farm workers.
Sam, there is no but here. We have twice as much as Trump, are raising at a much faster clip, are investing that money to build a massive ground operation and campaign. There is no but here. It's an unalloyed positive.
And that is fantastic but the other side of the story needs to be included and OBTW Thankyou so much for all your years of awesome advocacy. Both eyes 👁️👁️ no blinking. This election is too serious to ignore a bad outcome.
There is no but here Sam. It is fantastic "AND" we should be working to tell this story. "But" diminishes the achievement, and it's not what you actually mean.
I am spending time explaining this because using "But" to dismiss Democratic achievements is a central MAGA rhetorical strategy, and we should not be doing it to ourselves.
This isn't original to me (I read it here or on one of my other substack "daily reads").
"It is hard to roll up your sleeves when you are wringing your hands".
In other words, don't waste energy worrying about stuff that you cannot do anything about - put that energy to use productively!
How much time are you spending online reading negative things and posting about them vs. doing something productive like registering voters, spreading the word to friends and family about Biden's successes and warning people about Project 2025 and trump's authoritarian plans if he gets elected?
I'm writing postcards with Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) to register new voters in swing states and writing GOTV letters with Vote Forward (www.votefwd) to be "banked" and then mailed out in October.
Gotta run - I am off to a virtual postcard and letter writing party that starts in a couple of minutes!
Also - Sam - I appreciate your POV and smarts in thinking about the election BUT :) just think about who benefits from the continued BUTs - it’s not the Biden campaign or us. More BUTs doesn’t get people off their BUTTS. The only beneficiaries of this stuff are the media orgs that get more clicks because of concern and the Trump campaign.
Simon, what’s your view on the Maryland senate election? I would hate to see Larry Hogan use his “moderate” brand in order to hand the senate over to MAGA ….
I wrote about this earlier this week. New polling has the race even, and we should end up winning with whomever wins the primary. Will require work but I think we are favored there.
In a rational world the polls would not be close, even at this stage; and we wouldn’t need to have enough $$ on hand to spend on campaigns instead of food and shelter and other needs of Americans 😳. The voter suppression needs to be addressed directly with help to folks who’ve been dropped from the rolls to reinstate them in the face of opposition to the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in Congress by Republicans, the party of chaos!
The fact that young voters are a significantly larger share of new registrants in North Carolina than in 2020 and 2022 is very interesting and highly promising. Percentages are fine and well.
But HOW MANY newly registered voters are there in NC? How many newly-registered Democrats compared to new Republicans and new "unaffiliated"? I didn’t see that above. Really grateful if anyone here has those numbers.
Barbara, not exactly sure what you are looking at but dozens of polls taken in the past few weeks have the race within margin of error. So as I wrote today the election is close and competitive. The Economist poll average has Biden slightly ahead today. And remember there are a lot of GOP aligned polls in 538 that should be heavily discounted as they we are once again seeing, as we did in 2022, R polling coming in 2-5 pts more Republican than the independent polls. My view is that the election has improved for us by 1-2 points in the last six weeks, as all of us had expected. Whether it keeps moving in our direction in the coming weeks we will see. But it is longer consistent with the data we have in front of us to say Trump leads, particularly when Biden has led in 16 polls over the last few weeks.
Finally, as we learned in 2022, we have to be cautious with polls averages, as a few +4, +5 R polls can push the average to the right. I am no longer a big fan of averages, as I think it is a cheat that can distort as well as inform.
Simon -- Introduce yourself to Robert Reich and his hundreds of thousands of followers who were exposed to the bull that is the WSJ poll. I advised them to chill.
I second that !
I’d wager a week’s salary that Robert Reich is well aware who Simon Rosenberg is. No introduction necessary.
I hope Robert Reich isn't doomsaying - no time for that - esp from an intelligent individual like him !
Simon.
You are the BEST PR person in the Biden campaign. Keep up the great work!
Simon, so glad you are so visible. I was listening to Pivot and Kara started going down the rabbit hole of polls with DT leading. Fortunately her son was on and mentioned he was at the NYT when you were interviewed to give your take on the polls. He is a great your advocate for Joe and Democracy.
I’m sharing this widely. There is such attitude out there. And we need facts not people trying to sell negatives for profit. We are all better off with Democrats. I look forward to that happening again when, along with our great President Biden, we once again in Ohio re-elect Senator Sherrod Brown. One of the best ever.
Hate to use the old Nixon term, but the “nattering nabobs of nagativism” are always at it.
Please do not forget Sherrod Brown's campaign for the Senate in Ohio. We cannot loose this seat, Sherrod does a fabulous job for the people. Ohio already has one idiot Republican Senator and another would be disastrous.
I was so disappointed OH elected that fake, J. D. Vance, the last election cycle. Hopefully Sherrod Brown will be able to beat the MAGA candidate who won your primary.
As a former/native Ohioan - I'll do my damndest to help ensure one of the last people to be proud of in that state gets re-elected !!!
I am so disappointed that Ron Johnson is a Wisconsin senator. Tragic that he defeated Russ Feingold, and tragic that Mandela Barnes failed to win in 2022.
I still don't know how the hell that happened in '22
Likely the same reason NC elected Ted Budd instead of Cherie Beasley - insufficient voter turnout in blue areas to overcome the turnout in red areas with some amount of racism thrown in. Aren't Confederate flags really popular in rural WI?
I became a Simon fan at the 2020 election. I saw him on the YouTube station The Meidas Touch and he was the only positive person about Biden winning. He also said that the Republicans were too far behind to have early voting work for them. I believe that has proven to be true. I do not listen to polls after the 2016 fiasco. Whether you like Biden or not it has come down to one thing Biden or Trump. It is about what is happening HERE before we move on to outside the U.S. I continue to be on the positive wave based on facts supported by Simon. Yes, work to do but I believe we got this.
Can’t wait to see you in Maricopa County! Looking forward to hearing your optimism at the event and getting us all extra jazzed. We are pretty solid Dems here! 💙
All good trends, for sure.
Question: is it time to crystallize all of this into a “Daisy” type of message that grabs people by the neck as that 1964 spot did v Goldwater?
We’ve got the Jan 6th mob attack on our democracy and police officers; (Karl Rove is right for a change)… we’ve got the attack on women’s freedom/reproductive health care; we’ve got gun violence that Trump denies; we’ve got climate change horrors that Trump denies; we’ve got Trump pal-ing around with Putin and other strongman autocrats; we’ve got Biden’s strong economy/jobs; infrastructure/better and safer roads and bridges; we’ve got Biden’s CHIP manufacturing; Biden’s lower prescription drug prices … etc
We have evil personified in Trump.
Connect all the dots for a “Daisy” type message to grab people by the throats.
Too quaint? Too idealistic?
Add to this some good ads featuring Stormy Daniels!
So much fodder with which to work. We need clever minds to package all the material into a profound message that screams to people.
The “Daisy” spot was both subtle and brutally blunt.
It only ran once.
Look. Money also serves as psychological strategy and ground operations BUT money does not always win elections. Voters win elections and even uneducated voters count. So, all I am focusing on is that the messaging and education of an uneducated electorate must be direct and simple and entertaining. Smart pundits in DC are seen as enemies of the people. Uneducated voters need to see for example farmers losing their farms because no one wants to work for them and immigrants can farming restored for farmer. One way to do that is to create tax incentives for farmer that hire immigrants and provide revenue sharing for farm workers.
Sam, there is no but here. We have twice as much as Trump, are raising at a much faster clip, are investing that money to build a massive ground operation and campaign. There is no but here. It's an unalloyed positive.
And that is fantastic but the other side of the story needs to be included and OBTW Thankyou so much for all your years of awesome advocacy. Both eyes 👁️👁️ no blinking. This election is too serious to ignore a bad outcome.
There is no but here Sam. It is fantastic "AND" we should be working to tell this story. "But" diminishes the achievement, and it's not what you actually mean.
I am spending time explaining this because using "But" to dismiss Democratic achievements is a central MAGA rhetorical strategy, and we should not be doing it to ourselves.
Sir I will make sure to instead use AND 🤗
This isn't original to me (I read it here or on one of my other substack "daily reads").
"It is hard to roll up your sleeves when you are wringing your hands".
In other words, don't waste energy worrying about stuff that you cannot do anything about - put that energy to use productively!
How much time are you spending online reading negative things and posting about them vs. doing something productive like registering voters, spreading the word to friends and family about Biden's successes and warning people about Project 2025 and trump's authoritarian plans if he gets elected?
I'm writing postcards with Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) to register new voters in swing states and writing GOTV letters with Vote Forward (www.votefwd) to be "banked" and then mailed out in October.
Gotta run - I am off to a virtual postcard and letter writing party that starts in a couple of minutes!
Amen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also - Sam - I appreciate your POV and smarts in thinking about the election BUT :) just think about who benefits from the continued BUTs - it’s not the Biden campaign or us. More BUTs doesn’t get people off their BUTTS. The only beneficiaries of this stuff are the media orgs that get more clicks because of concern and the Trump campaign.
Alrighty!!! I have seen the light
Simon,
Art The Vote has issued a CALL FOR ART inviting young people (17–29) to enter a national juried art challenge to help Get Out The Young Vote in 2024.
The ATV Challenge: Create original ARTCARDS or STICKERS that pierce the noise and pervasive disaffection to energize & engage young voters.
The ATV Benefits: • Prizes • National exposure • Online visibility • Broad distribution thru organizations working to Get Out The Young Vote.
Visit Artthevote.org for submission guidelines and more information.
The deadline for submissions is June 30th. All resources are available for downloading.
Please share our Call for Art through your vast networks. Contact me with questions:
Jayne Mackta, ATV Founder/Creative Director
info@artthevote.org
908-337-7276
That sounds like a neat project!
Simon, what’s your view on the Maryland senate election? I would hate to see Larry Hogan use his “moderate” brand in order to hand the senate over to MAGA ….
I wrote about this earlier this week. New polling has the race even, and we should end up winning with whomever wins the primary. Will require work but I think we are favored there.
Thanks you Simon. Spreading
Hopium from all points of the
compass.
Question: I’m unable to paste-in images in this comment section (I am v partial to graphs). Ideas?
Not sure. Let me think about it.
In a rational world the polls would not be close, even at this stage; and we wouldn’t need to have enough $$ on hand to spend on campaigns instead of food and shelter and other needs of Americans 😳. The voter suppression needs to be addressed directly with help to folks who’ve been dropped from the rolls to reinstate them in the face of opposition to the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in Congress by Republicans, the party of chaos!
The fact that young voters are a significantly larger share of new registrants in North Carolina than in 2020 and 2022 is very interesting and highly promising. Percentages are fine and well.
But HOW MANY newly registered voters are there in NC? How many newly-registered Democrats compared to new Republicans and new "unaffiliated"? I didn’t see that above. Really grateful if anyone here has those numbers.