Jim I am going to leave this up despite how ridiculous a post it is, and just say that in every post I have done here at Hopium I have said I am optimistic that we can win if we do the work; that the election can and will change and there will be good days and bad days; that I have since the very first day been clear eyed about the gravity of the threat we face, in fact that is why I began Hopium, because we need to do more to mobilize against that threat; that I have spent every day articulating the nature of the threat we face, and did so again today when many others are standing down; that in the face of that threat this community has raised millions of dollars and helped candidates win in elections all across the country since April of 2023; that in my analysis of polling data and elections all I have done, as I did successfully in 2022, share with you what I was seeing and not falling pray, as you clearly are, to right-wing memes and narratives; that here every day I have tried to help all of you - 90,000 strong now - become better advocates and info warriors for our democracy because I believe we can only win this fight from the bottom up and not the top down. Finally, I don't know that there is anyone in the Democratic Party who has done more to warn folks against the threat of our "opponents" not our "enemies," as I have discussed these matters far more directly and forthrightly than most.
The only thing I am willing to concede is this post could have been written in many other ways and the way it was written was insulting to me, and unworthy of the kind of conversation we attempt to have here at Hopium.
Simon, I didn't read the post you refer to (looks like it's been deleted), however your response describing your own continuing efforts is so great - thank you!!!
You are a beacon of hopium and information that is helpful and sustaining.
Simon, I wholeheartedly believe in you and this fight! I believe you would be 100 percent honest with us all if you truly felt this fight was over. Your experience, insider information, determination, and decades of progress/success gives you room to be one of a select few these days to be able to effectively read the tea leaves and see the picture from every angle and frame. Like you, I believe in the big picture, the construct of how elections truly work in contrast to the media fireworks, the ground game which we have more than enough evidence now to prove the public perception on the ground is vastly different from that projected in the media, and above all -- the notion that there is a true rise in pro democracy movements directly exceeding expectations and voting against fascism.
Like you, I believe what occurred in both England and France is not coincidental and is directly interconnected with the landscape here in America. It is far too easy for many to surrender to the martyrdom of Trump' seizing the moment which he does quite cunningly and unfortunately so. He was never a bright man in my view but he has long been savvy and is in some ways, a masterful showman. That said, he is, always has been, and always will be --- his own worst enemy and THAT is why Hopium matters so much because in tandem with the DNC, Biden/Harris, charismatic Gubernatorial surrogates, the Obamas, the Clintons, Lawrence O'Donnell, Lincoln Project, Meidas Touch, Joe Trippi, and Allan Lichtman --- we have the right narrative for the long game when all set and done and I strongly encourage fellow Hopium followers NOT to lose sight of that.
While this moment -- the assassination attempt, Trump' seizing of that moment, the dismissal of the classified docs case --- all plays as though the narrative is firmly in his favor (which momentarily, it actually may be) --- what stands out to me and I'm sure to you as well as, hopefully many other Hopium followers --- is how these seeds are planted with potentially monumental advantages for Biden/Harris and the pro democracy movement.
One -- the fact the shooter was a young, white, male, registered Republican, religious extremist directly and predictably shows Trump has lost control of his own. Now we have reached a clarifying point in where Trump has now become NOT crazy enough for some in his own base which leads me to believe this is just the tip of an iceberg I don't feel he will be able to effectively steer away from. People have to recognize even some of his own most ardent and radicalized supporters are feeling betrayed by him hence, his public attempts at distancing himself from Project 2025, or word salads around the issue of abortion.
He has always thought he had complete control over his base when in fact, not only does he clearly not --- but most likely never has hence, Jan 6. While others may feel he is riding this cloud 9 all the way back to the WH (which we have to selflessly acknowledge is a possibility in and of itself otherwise we do ourselves a disservice by catering to fantasy and not the reality of this being a challenging election that won't end until the voting ends) --- I instinctively feel this is the beginning of a self destructive process for him.
Biden has been coming out strong looking like the adult in the room in that genuine Grandpa manner he has projected for some time which people underestimate is a characteristic of his that many find comforting. IF Trump does not take the cue that's being verbalized by nearly everyone around him both parties alike (and I predict he won't because he is utterly incorrigible) then, he will further exacerbate the starkness of the contrast between himself and Biden. This is HIS narrative to lose and under the assumption he will likely be further emboldened by this unfortunate incident -- his inevitable doubling down and stoking further violent flames will cause him to look like anything but the hero he thinks he is to everyone who isn't in his base.
Let us keep in mind, the women will not suddenly forget about the threats to their reproductive rights; the independents and moderates won't all the sudden crawl back if Trump lost them in 2020. The big picture view on the ground still exists. Patterns that begets certain results over the course of these last several years in our favor don't suddenly vanish. They exist for a reason. I'm with you Simon! It's still only July and there's a LOT of race left! Four months are as long as they are short and A LOT can still happen. Let's win this thing!
I agree. Provided our side responds to the events of the last three days with vigor, not a fetal position, it will be remembered as a turning point, and not in the way Trump and his allies are thinking as they characteristically lead with their chins in overreach, comically hypocritical, phony outrage and overconfident braggadocio.
I love sports, and as a result am usually annoyed by the (over)deployment of sports metaphors in politics, but in this case, I think one applies. In politics, as in sports, a turning point this early in the contest is *not* the result of a play by the ultimate winners that the MSM deems decisive; it's the result of how *both teams respond* to the event involved. It *becomes* a turning point (in the eyes of the punditocracy) only if one of two responses occur: (1) the team that looks like the loser starts playing like one (2) the team that looks like it has it all sewn up starts acting like it. And which team the turning point favors depends on which response, if either, occurs.
If *neither* occurs, then it's still "game on." For these reasons, I believe the game is still at least as much ours to lose as it is Trump's to win.
What the **?? I simply cannot believe she dismissed the case. She has to be taken off the bench. Is there anything that can be done? If we only knew what Trump did with those documents it would likely be an even bigger crime. I’m in disbelief that this could happen here even before the election.
We lose this election the moment we stop reminding folks Trump is a rapist, a 34X-convicted felon, a serial fraudster who steals from charities, a threat to national security, a man who sexualizes his own daughter and is an existential threat to our American democracy.
Yes, but it’s equally important to remind voters that Team Biden-Harris has been incredibly successful, to underscore this presidency’s accomplishments, and to make widely known the vision for the next term!
For starters, Simon has given us so many positive facts to spread!
That works for us. "Resistive resonance" using ridicule works on them. Sometimes chickens come home to roost. Shooter, a registered Republican wearing gun club garb used NRA choice of weapons.
As a further comment on this. We can’t stop. We must keep Trump down. And. that is beyond critical at this point.
Yet, it will likely take more. After reading through various polls today and viewing outtakes from the Lester Holy interview, I truly believe… and respectfully say… Biden needs to pass the torch. For the good of democracy, Biden needs to pass the torch.
“With age comes wisdom, but sometimes age comes alone.” said Oscar Wilde. We have the wisest and most successful President in 75 years, one with a plan to benefit all. Joe Biden is wise, old, and will get older. No matter. The brilliance of his experience enlightens the path for our feet.
Simon, I appreciate your post today. Thanks for pointing out in particular that: "A central reason he was successful at getting his shots off is that, unlike almost every other nation in the world, here in the US a 20 year old can legally carry a high-powered rifle in public within several hundred feet of a Presidential candidate and there is nothing law enforcement can do until he fires his weapon. Far right ideologies made Saturday’s shooting possible, and easy enough even a kid could do it. Violence is their goal, their aspiration, as is the ending of “law and order” and democracy itself."
Not stopping here in Culver City, CA. Not letting up. Postcarding right now, and later this afternoon, and tomorrow. Phone banking Wednesday. And on and on, ‘til November. Democracy is too precious to give up without a fight.
Same! I wrote 50+ postcards over the weekend, just got done with a phone bank shift (my first for this cycle), and I will be canvassing this weekend. Can't stop, won't stop!
Thank you for your steadfastness, Simon... it's a tough, maniacal Monday. On top of Judge Cannon's biased and corrupt shenanigans, we need to double - triple - quadruple - quintuple down and WIN THIS ELECTION... or else America as we know it perishes. Again, Simon, THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!
I feel upset. In my eyes, Biden has aged significantly. At the debate, he looked pale, gaunt and weak. He could not complete a basic sentence nor could he string two thoughts together in a coherent manner. He has not changed that image -- an image he has created since the debate. He looks old and feeble to me. I don't have any confidence that he will not continue aging significantly. I am also upset that Biden, his staff and other politicians hid his condition from us. I don't know one person in my network who has any confidence in Biden's ability to lead now. So, when you tell us to focus I understand. But, I can't get over what I saw with my own eyes.
I appreciate your concerns. But from my point of view, BIden has presented himself much differently since the debate. I don't think anyone was hiding anything significant. He has governed very effectively, and he couldn't do that if in mental decline.
For that reason, I believe the debate performance was the result of a very unfortunate confluence of events -- 1) he was sick, 2) he was recovering from jet lag - two international trips in the week before, 3) the fire hose of lies Trump threw at him (look up Gish Gallop, if you're not familiar), 4) Trump continued to rant even after his microphone was turned off, and 5) having a stutter can produce speech patterns that might erroneously appear to reflect cognitive condition.
Availability heuristics made people assume this one bad night was indicative of all nights. That was never true, and his comeback has shown the spunk and brilliance that is Joe Biden.
Biden may not be the best path forward. The worst thing we can do is belittle and ignore the millions of people who have (valid) concerns about Biden. Let's agree to do everything we can to beat trump, regardless of who his Democratic opponent is.
The concerns are valid and we have to hear them to understand them. It is so tempting to tune them out, but we need them in the fray. So the first step is to find what will assuage the misgivings. Until we see the objections first hand, Joe Biden will not know how to gain their full trust.
None of us supporting Biden are belittling anyone. Your concerns are valid. What my message is to you and to everyone here is it is bigger than that! We are not telling you to shut up, it’s just not the message that wins us the election. I’m sorry, I know that is now what you believe or want to believe, but I know in my heart the message has to be about SAVING DEMOCRACY and THWARTING THE THREAT PROJECT 2025 POSES FOR OUR COUNTRY.
I go one day at a time. One message at a time. One comment at a time. Steady like Joe. And time passes. And we build trust and confidence in the best President of my lifetime.
Robin I suggest you join some postcard/letter writing or other Dem zoom calls to expand who you are talking to (I’ve been on many and heard plenty of support for Biden); in addition, letter writing/phone banking for House races allows you to advocate for Democrats even if you question the top of the ticket.
A favorite teacher gave me the greatest de-paralyzer ever. Take a minute. Ask yourself, “What do I know?” Even knowing where you are standing or what you’re holding in your hand… and realizing/acknowledging that “thing you know,” unfreezes you to do the next thing. Like write one postcard. And then another.
I hope it helps you. (We’re all fighting our way through this… one moment at a time.)
Please, have a look at Robert Hubbell’s Concluding Thoughts from last Friday’s Today’s Edition where he refers to “availability heuristic.” I hope it eases your “upset.”
I am also upset. It seems the Democratic party is paralyzed and will not do what they need to do and replace Biden. Of course everybody on this forum agrees that a Trump presidency would be awful, that Biden has accomplished a lot, etc. But you just have to use your own eyes. Biden looks terrible and after Saturday the visual contrast between Biden and Trump is even more glaring, despite how much we wish people would talk about Trump's lunacy and Biden's accomplishments. We are preaching to the choir. Just today, a new NYT poll came out that shows Biden in terrible shape, only 3 points up in Virginia and 3 points down in Pennsylvania. Harris does a lot better. I am hoping Biden and the Democratic party realizes how dire the situation is with Biden as the nominee and how much Biden will be detested if he stays in the race and loses.
Fully agree. The complete lack of urgency around addressing this growing disparity is what has me upset. President Biden waited a week to address his bad debate performance which left people believing he was unfit. Trump refused to leave the stage until he got a photo.
When I hear people say we have to just stay the course I get upset, because the Campaign has not shown the ability to give me even a fig leaf of confidence they can respond once Trump's ads go on air.
The slow rolling of Biden's response has been the most troubling. I understand why he is defensive but I hope he can look at the bigger picture and gracefully bow out. Saying only the Lord Almighty or if he has zero chance is not a credible response. People on this forum appreciate him and wanted him to win -- that is why I came here too. But the important thing is for Trump to lose and that seems more untenable with Biden.
Based on what? The pundits and Clooney stuff? The false bravado and bluster of trump and his campaign staff (as “reported” in The Atlantic)? The polling (even with all of its limitations) doe not indicate that Biden will lose.
Visuals fade over time (months) and you both seem to ignore the responses from President Biden.
Every time we cite polls, let's please acknowledge they're samples of about 1,000 respondents and some aren't even't even likely voters. But since we're talking about polls - polling in April showed Trump ahead in PA. The reality is that on April 23, over 2 million ACTUAL Pennsylvania voters showed up for the primary. Biden got 946K votes (47%), while Trump got 793K votes (39%). Nikki Haley got 158K protest votes and she'd dropped out of the race a month earlier.
Over 14 million of us voted for Biden in our 2024 state primaries knowing he's old but also recognizing he's been one of our most successful presidents in modern times. By contrast, Obama got 8 million votes in the 2012 presidential primaries - so Biden increased the share of votes by 75%. I'd also encourage everyone to watch Biden's energizing rally in Michigan on Friday - his message and delivery were pitch-perfect in going after Trump and in laying out a positive vision for a second Biden-Harris term. At this point he's pretty much tied in the polls; imagine how well he might do if Dems could unite and go on offense against MAGA instead of each other.
As much as we might wish, the media circus won't be an iota kinder to the amazing Kamala Harris if she were the nominee, or any other Democrat - the divisions could increase exponentially. Joe Biden has earned my support and I'm proud to be on Team Biden-Harris and to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.
I think the primaries shows Trump has some real weaknesses in his coalition, but I do not think comparing primary turn out to polls is that great metric. President Biden got more primary votes in Utah than Trump did, but I do not think we should count on Biden carrying Utah. (Biden 59,235 primary votes to Trump's 48,350)
I do not expect the media to be nicer to Kamala Harris than Joe Biden, but I do hope she would be more comfortable being grabbing and pushing a media narrative than President Biden. To his great credit President Biden does not like controversy, and thus shy's away from the media's almost irresistible apatite for it. I do expect that Kamala Harris is better at creating media moments and capitalizing on them.
The raw primary vote count isn’t what’s important - it’s that trump significantly underperformed the polling. These were actual votes compared to poll projections and in almost every state he underperformed by double digits. That is a significant indicator of an issue with modern polling - non-response bias is making polling a guessing game.
I'm confident that the voters available to us won't be voting on visual contrast in November. Not if we do the work to highlight the important issue differences between Biden-Harris and Trump-whoever. And we should not hesitate to say that democracy is on the line -- and point to specifics, whether it be 1) Project 2025, 2) Trump's own statements about what he intends to do if re-elected, or 3) Trump's lies / attempts to subvert the 2020 election (of which his inaction for 3 hours on January 6th was just one aspect). Finally, we need to remind people about the SCOTUS decision on presidential immunity. I think it will come down to who voters trust and respect more. I think that choice is clear.
I wish the polls were wrong more than anything, but the averages have been bad for Biden and getting worse. It is hard to see how he can turn things around. These are wonderful and compelling arguments for everybody on this forum. But are they going to be enough for the low propensity voter who sees a doddering Biden and a defiant Trump on social media?
That's where we come in. We have to be "information warriors," a term Simon has coined. Can you use your social media network to point out why the visuals are misleading? To state why you believe he is cognitively fit for the job (i.e., how effectively he has governed)? To explain why you think it's important to vote for Biden?
Beyond your own circles, do you have time to volunteer for some GOTV efforts? Whether by texting, calling, post carding, or door-to-door canvassing? It's in part because Dems have such a strong grassroots "machine" that we have been outperforming the polls.
I don't underestimate the impact we can have if we work hard over the next 4 months.
As this 538 article shows the average polling miss in each election is 6!!!! points. 6. The polls were very very wrong in 2022. Real Clear Politics final map had Rs winning 54 Senate seats. They won 49.
The polls were not very wrong in 2022. There is a lot in the article you shared that we could debate over but this is not the right format.
I worked on presidential polling a long time ago, in the eighties, my day job now is not in politics and I don’t have time to dig into the data like you or Tom Bonier do but I do contract YouGov to do market research and I spend a lot of time studying behavioral data.
I also correctly predicted that there would be no red wave in 2022 and did what you did, looked at other the data points besides the polling in the competitive races, there was never any evidence that the GOP would pick up 20-30 seats. I still don’t understand why more political reporters didn’t simply look at the data.
Every Presidential race is different and some are harder to predict than others, 2020 was straightforward, and so was 2012. Most people were not paying attention to the state races in the last month in 2016.
In my opinion, 2024 is difficult to predict. I’ve been relying on people like you Simon this round to give me the deeper analysis because of my job. But from the outside, this race is starting to feel like some of the other races we lost, 2000, 2004, 2016 where the candidates were listening to a small group of advisors who ended up giving them really bad advice.
I don’t need to tell you that we can screw this one up, for my daughter, for your kid(s) we need to really realistic about the path forward. I know that the Democratic Party overall is in good shape, the Dem Senate candidates in AZ, WI, PA give me hope that Biden’s support is underrepresented in those states. But the theory that Biden’s ceiling is still much higher than Trump’s is good but it’s still a theory. It would be helpful for me to understand more how we bring those people home.
The same poll you cited has Kamala down 1 in PA and up 5 in VA. I’m not sure that’s “a lot better” and both results are within the margin of error. All I care about is beating Trump but if we change candidates I’m hoping the polling advantage would be significantly greater than where things stand right now.
It's fair to feel uncertainty. With Biden, it seems that there is little he can do the change the perceptions, his performance is weak even on his best days (I have watched all of his interviews and speeches and it just is not there), and he could easily have other episodes like the debate and the Clooney fundraiser. A fresh face could absolutely explode, but it could also be invigorating for the party.
Yeah, my thought when I read Jen O'Malley Dillon's email last week was they believe they are at or near the floor of Democratic support, and they believe that Trump is at or near his celling. The problem with that is the kind of by their admission is they think they can probably only get it up to 270-281 EC vote.
Do not get me wrong a win is a win but if a saw polling that indicating that another candidate could squeeze 10,000 more votes out of Arizona we should do it. And after the Assignation attempt I think our best hope is things do not move.
Clooney had a clear axe to grind and left the fundraiser well before it was over. He's turned out to be a real shit. Full stop. He isn't going to ever get good vibes back again from the Dem party. Reiner either.
The last thing we need is attacking people who want to see us win in November just because of a disagreement over what Biden should do. As I said above, I have had strong doubts about Biden urging him to step aside as nominee but recently changed my mind. We MUST have an "all hands on deck approach".
Dave, this polling showed PA within margin of error in PA. and slightly ahead in VA. It is important to note that these cries of the polling are terrible for Biden are just not true as of today, Tuesday, July 16th. It may become true, but it isn't true now based on the polling in front of us today. It is a close, competitive election and the ongoing freakout about the polling needs to end. It's red wavy MAGA stuff.
I understand your concern. What you saw with your own eyes was a normal response of someone with a stuttering disability to exhaustion and the firehose of lies being thrown on him. Thank of all the speeches he’s given before and since. Of course he’s old. And he won’t get younger. It’s a concern. But what you saw was not someone who can’t govern, think clearly, and handle complex ideas. He does not have dementia. He has a stutter.
Please watch Allan Lichtman regarding the importance (of lack thereof) of debates and incumbency on the outcome of the election. (Incumbency is key. Not debates).
It’s understandable to be concerned. Everything is riding on this election. But please trust the process.
The Cannon ruling this morning has just put me over the edge for the day. I heard legal expert Chuck Rosenberg say for the DOJ to "move the venue to 'judge shop' would not be a good look." Sorry but too many Dems are still playing polite checkers while the other side has taken a blowtorch to the game board. I in no way condone violence but I am also well aware of how the other side will use the attack in PA to try to silence all criticism and gaslight the public into thinking Dems are the source of hostility and division. I hope Biden and Dems across the country continue to point out MAGA/TFG's 9 years of incitement, including an insurrection, and the dangers to us all as Simon does today. The answer is always the ballot box, and I'm going to send more postcards to do my part - and breathe...
There may be one silver lining from the Cannon ruling provided the Jack Smith makes the move which I expect. He must both appeal the ruling AND move to have her recused. Cannon's failure to acknowledge clear precedent going back to US v. Nixon makes me feel confident the ruling will be reversed. But it is also necessary to get her removed from the case. If that happens - and Trump loses in November, the case may then go forward. It was not going to happen before then anyway with this judge.
Saw that. Very pleased. Wonder whether he'll also concurrently move to recuse. He could wait for a ruling from the Circuit Ct then take the next step to seek recusal.
Hubbel and Jay Kuo write ups today were inspiring for us not to back off at all: we need to keep communicating. They are both on Substack. I really appreciated their support to all who want to preserve our democracy. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
I feel so much anger inside because the stolen documents case has been thrown out today. I canceled coffee with my sister who is a Trumper because I knew I couldn't keep my feelings in. I know I'm not alone, but this is a real test of any normal person's capacity to act like everything is normal. Thank you for the daily hope you give us!
Nothing is normal at this particular time. We need to keep spreading the P-2025 word to those who have not heard about it. It has become a tool with which to fight the extreme right. We can prevail if we stick together and spread the word.
just saw this - Andrew Weissman [reposted from his threads]
What next for MAL case?
Jack Smith could avoid the delay and insanity/inanity of the Supreme Court, and just have the indictment refiled by the US Attorney-- as the flaw per Judge Cannon is that Smith, as a Special Counsel, is too independent of the Department of Justice.
Note: that conclusion by Cannon is the OPPOSITE of what Trump has been claiming: i.e. that Smith is a lackey of the Administration!
I plan to work hard for Dems up and down the ballot with donations, postcard writing and canvassing in Georgia, but I wish we could put to rest "Biden Concerns". My AA friends in GA view the "Biden Concerns" as white privilege issues, not real concerns, and are furious. If something happened to Biden we all know his A+ team and Harris could step in, not unlike what happened to Reagan when he had Alzheimer's. There is no unicorn candidate and to nullify millions of votes is quite frankly undemocratic! We all need to unify, put this issue to rest, and get to work!
Whatever the situation is with Biden, and I love him, we have no control over it. Harris is more than capable. As demoralized as I am this morning, I will not give the MAGAs more talking points or glee from my saying Biden is too old, feeble, etc.
I’m with you Cindy. I listened to Bannon say the plan is make liberals “ so afraid, we’re looking for their fear!” Glad he’s put away for awhile and we’re more determined than ever. There are more of us than them so if we show up we will win! GOTV 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Amen!!! We should never discount the power of Black Americans at the ballot box -- or the power of other people of color, the power of women, the power of those who believe in voting rights, the power of those who want a clean environment, the power of those who believe in democracy and oppose autocracy -- and the power of those who advocate for sensible gun laws, for that matter.
Perhaps Democrats can re-introduce legislation to again ban assault rifles, such as the AR-15. We could call it the *Keeping Trump and America Safe Act*.
I’ve seen more than one Black woman say that the reason party elites are going after Biden is because he was instrumental in getting the first Black person into the White House and he’s going to be the person who gets the second Black person in the presidency as well. I think this effort to push him out is solidifying the Black vote for Biden.
538’s election forecast seems volatile, albeit within a narrow band. It just moved to 52.2 percent likelihood of Biden winning the election, with Trump at 47.4 percent – with 274–264 as the most likely Electoral College result.
At one point yesterday, Trump’s lead in 538’s polling average dropped further, to a mere 1.2 percent. That didn’t last long, quickly moving back up to 1.9 to 2.0 percent.
IMHO, the election will depend on turnout far more than polling. There are more of us – and if a higher portion of us vote, we win. And that depends on our work!
Click the link and scroll down, although the current numbers are 272–266. That page has lots of useful in-depth information. For instance, if you scroll down to the map and hover your cursor over individual states, you can see the forecast for that state.
OK. Now I see it. It's in the "Forecast over time" section, which wasn't intuitive. I was focusing on two other sections - Electoral College probability and Electoral vs. Popular Vote sections.
I suspect 538 is as good as it gets, unless you happen to have access to non-public polling commissioned by the Democratic Party and its candidates. First, an average of many polls is better than single polls. Second, 538 weighs its polling average in favor of high-quality poll from reliable pollsters. I believe they also try to correct for the known lean of lower-quality pollsters.
SImon refers repeatedly to 538, and its far better than the un-weighted average at RealClearPolling.com, which is right-wing and propagandistic.
Nonetheless, I would take Simon’s admonition to heart: polling and poll averages should be evaluated not alone, but considered together with many other types of data.
Lichtman got it right for the wrong reasons; no Comey letter, no trump. I put very little stock in his snake oil and I have not been shy about writing that here or elsewhere.
Jim I am going to leave this up despite how ridiculous a post it is, and just say that in every post I have done here at Hopium I have said I am optimistic that we can win if we do the work; that the election can and will change and there will be good days and bad days; that I have since the very first day been clear eyed about the gravity of the threat we face, in fact that is why I began Hopium, because we need to do more to mobilize against that threat; that I have spent every day articulating the nature of the threat we face, and did so again today when many others are standing down; that in the face of that threat this community has raised millions of dollars and helped candidates win in elections all across the country since April of 2023; that in my analysis of polling data and elections all I have done, as I did successfully in 2022, share with you what I was seeing and not falling pray, as you clearly are, to right-wing memes and narratives; that here every day I have tried to help all of you - 90,000 strong now - become better advocates and info warriors for our democracy because I believe we can only win this fight from the bottom up and not the top down. Finally, I don't know that there is anyone in the Democratic Party who has done more to warn folks against the threat of our "opponents" not our "enemies," as I have discussed these matters far more directly and forthrightly than most.
The only thing I am willing to concede is this post could have been written in many other ways and the way it was written was insulting to me, and unworthy of the kind of conversation we attempt to have here at Hopium.
Simon, I didn't read the post you refer to (looks like it's been deleted), however your response describing your own continuing efforts is so great - thank you!!!
You are a beacon of hopium and information that is helpful and sustaining.
Your civility, knowledge, and respect for all of us is so encouraging and great role model for how we should conduct ourselves. Thank you
Simon, I wholeheartedly believe in you and this fight! I believe you would be 100 percent honest with us all if you truly felt this fight was over. Your experience, insider information, determination, and decades of progress/success gives you room to be one of a select few these days to be able to effectively read the tea leaves and see the picture from every angle and frame. Like you, I believe in the big picture, the construct of how elections truly work in contrast to the media fireworks, the ground game which we have more than enough evidence now to prove the public perception on the ground is vastly different from that projected in the media, and above all -- the notion that there is a true rise in pro democracy movements directly exceeding expectations and voting against fascism.
Like you, I believe what occurred in both England and France is not coincidental and is directly interconnected with the landscape here in America. It is far too easy for many to surrender to the martyrdom of Trump' seizing the moment which he does quite cunningly and unfortunately so. He was never a bright man in my view but he has long been savvy and is in some ways, a masterful showman. That said, he is, always has been, and always will be --- his own worst enemy and THAT is why Hopium matters so much because in tandem with the DNC, Biden/Harris, charismatic Gubernatorial surrogates, the Obamas, the Clintons, Lawrence O'Donnell, Lincoln Project, Meidas Touch, Joe Trippi, and Allan Lichtman --- we have the right narrative for the long game when all set and done and I strongly encourage fellow Hopium followers NOT to lose sight of that.
While this moment -- the assassination attempt, Trump' seizing of that moment, the dismissal of the classified docs case --- all plays as though the narrative is firmly in his favor (which momentarily, it actually may be) --- what stands out to me and I'm sure to you as well as, hopefully many other Hopium followers --- is how these seeds are planted with potentially monumental advantages for Biden/Harris and the pro democracy movement.
One -- the fact the shooter was a young, white, male, registered Republican, religious extremist directly and predictably shows Trump has lost control of his own. Now we have reached a clarifying point in where Trump has now become NOT crazy enough for some in his own base which leads me to believe this is just the tip of an iceberg I don't feel he will be able to effectively steer away from. People have to recognize even some of his own most ardent and radicalized supporters are feeling betrayed by him hence, his public attempts at distancing himself from Project 2025, or word salads around the issue of abortion.
He has always thought he had complete control over his base when in fact, not only does he clearly not --- but most likely never has hence, Jan 6. While others may feel he is riding this cloud 9 all the way back to the WH (which we have to selflessly acknowledge is a possibility in and of itself otherwise we do ourselves a disservice by catering to fantasy and not the reality of this being a challenging election that won't end until the voting ends) --- I instinctively feel this is the beginning of a self destructive process for him.
Biden has been coming out strong looking like the adult in the room in that genuine Grandpa manner he has projected for some time which people underestimate is a characteristic of his that many find comforting. IF Trump does not take the cue that's being verbalized by nearly everyone around him both parties alike (and I predict he won't because he is utterly incorrigible) then, he will further exacerbate the starkness of the contrast between himself and Biden. This is HIS narrative to lose and under the assumption he will likely be further emboldened by this unfortunate incident -- his inevitable doubling down and stoking further violent flames will cause him to look like anything but the hero he thinks he is to everyone who isn't in his base.
Let us keep in mind, the women will not suddenly forget about the threats to their reproductive rights; the independents and moderates won't all the sudden crawl back if Trump lost them in 2020. The big picture view on the ground still exists. Patterns that begets certain results over the course of these last several years in our favor don't suddenly vanish. They exist for a reason. I'm with you Simon! It's still only July and there's a LOT of race left! Four months are as long as they are short and A LOT can still happen. Let's win this thing!
I agree. Provided our side responds to the events of the last three days with vigor, not a fetal position, it will be remembered as a turning point, and not in the way Trump and his allies are thinking as they characteristically lead with their chins in overreach, comically hypocritical, phony outrage and overconfident braggadocio.
I love sports, and as a result am usually annoyed by the (over)deployment of sports metaphors in politics, but in this case, I think one applies. In politics, as in sports, a turning point this early in the contest is *not* the result of a play by the ultimate winners that the MSM deems decisive; it's the result of how *both teams respond* to the event involved. It *becomes* a turning point (in the eyes of the punditocracy) only if one of two responses occur: (1) the team that looks like the loser starts playing like one (2) the team that looks like it has it all sewn up starts acting like it. And which team the turning point favors depends on which response, if either, occurs.
If *neither* occurs, then it's still "game on." For these reasons, I believe the game is still at least as much ours to lose as it is Trump's to win.
Ted Nugent, that is an astonishing post!
Chris I am taking this post down. It is deeply inappropriate.
And about Judge Cannon……
I refuse to call her “judge”, I don’t believe she is qualified.
What the **?? I simply cannot believe she dismissed the case. She has to be taken off the bench. Is there anything that can be done? If we only knew what Trump did with those documents it would likely be an even bigger crime. I’m in disbelief that this could happen here even before the election.
We lose this election the moment we stop reminding folks Trump is a rapist, a 34X-convicted felon, a serial fraudster who steals from charities, a threat to national security, a man who sexualizes his own daughter and is an existential threat to our American democracy.
We lose if we stop. Don’t stop.
Yes, but it’s equally important to remind voters that Team Biden-Harris has been incredibly successful, to underscore this presidency’s accomplishments, and to make widely known the vision for the next term!
For starters, Simon has given us so many positive facts to spread!
That works for us. "Resistive resonance" using ridicule works on them. Sometimes chickens come home to roost. Shooter, a registered Republican wearing gun club garb used NRA choice of weapons.
Good week to register more Democrats. ,
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Focus for Democracy with Adam Schiff -- Tuesday, July 16th at 5pm PST/8pm EST. Register at https://bit.ly/F4D16July
Thursday is Florida day on Textarcade. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24bamk.
Also Florida day Thursday on FT 6 phonebank. https://www.fieldteam6.org/actions
Love the Seal Team 6, thanks!
Is Adam Schiff one of the Dems calling for Biden to step down?
Don't think so.
Then it's another Schiff (or similar name). I heard the guy interviewed on NPR last week.
Yep. It is Adam Schiff. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/07/08/rep-adam-schiff-concerned-about-bidens-age-and-impact-on-down-ballot-races/
Exactly! Trump remains the same vile human being and maybe even more-so once the facts of this event get sorted out and investigated.
With the addition of JD Vance as Trump’s VP nominee, the MAGA Republican ticket just became much more dangerous!
As a further comment on this. We can’t stop. We must keep Trump down. And. that is beyond critical at this point.
Yet, it will likely take more. After reading through various polls today and viewing outtakes from the Lester Holy interview, I truly believe… and respectfully say… Biden needs to pass the torch. For the good of democracy, Biden needs to pass the torch.
That’s all I’ll say on it.
“With age comes wisdom, but sometimes age comes alone.” said Oscar Wilde. We have the wisest and most successful President in 75 years, one with a plan to benefit all. Joe Biden is wise, old, and will get older. No matter. The brilliance of his experience enlightens the path for our feet.
Simon, I appreciate your post today. Thanks for pointing out in particular that: "A central reason he was successful at getting his shots off is that, unlike almost every other nation in the world, here in the US a 20 year old can legally carry a high-powered rifle in public within several hundred feet of a Presidential candidate and there is nothing law enforcement can do until he fires his weapon. Far right ideologies made Saturday’s shooting possible, and easy enough even a kid could do it. Violence is their goal, their aspiration, as is the ending of “law and order” and democracy itself."
Not stopping here in Culver City, CA. Not letting up. Postcarding right now, and later this afternoon, and tomorrow. Phone banking Wednesday. And on and on, ‘til November. Democracy is too precious to give up without a fight.
Us, too!!
Same! I wrote 50+ postcards over the weekend, just got done with a phone bank shift (my first for this cycle), and I will be canvassing this weekend. Can't stop, won't stop!
Trump has been lounging on his roof of a fantasy about himself, shooting vile and dishonest words at unsuspecting Americans 24/7. Mass bully.
Paging: We, the People.
Thank you for your steadfastness, Simon... it's a tough, maniacal Monday. On top of Judge Cannon's biased and corrupt shenanigans, we need to double - triple - quadruple - quintuple down and WIN THIS ELECTION... or else America as we know it perishes. Again, Simon, THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE!
I feel upset. In my eyes, Biden has aged significantly. At the debate, he looked pale, gaunt and weak. He could not complete a basic sentence nor could he string two thoughts together in a coherent manner. He has not changed that image -- an image he has created since the debate. He looks old and feeble to me. I don't have any confidence that he will not continue aging significantly. I am also upset that Biden, his staff and other politicians hid his condition from us. I don't know one person in my network who has any confidence in Biden's ability to lead now. So, when you tell us to focus I understand. But, I can't get over what I saw with my own eyes.
I appreciate your concerns. But from my point of view, BIden has presented himself much differently since the debate. I don't think anyone was hiding anything significant. He has governed very effectively, and he couldn't do that if in mental decline.
For that reason, I believe the debate performance was the result of a very unfortunate confluence of events -- 1) he was sick, 2) he was recovering from jet lag - two international trips in the week before, 3) the fire hose of lies Trump threw at him (look up Gish Gallop, if you're not familiar), 4) Trump continued to rant even after his microphone was turned off, and 5) having a stutter can produce speech patterns that might erroneously appear to reflect cognitive condition.
Availability heuristics made people assume this one bad night was indicative of all nights. That was never true, and his comeback has shown the spunk and brilliance that is Joe Biden.
Carl, you said what I wanted to say But I would have used a lot more words. Thank you.
Thank you for your insights
Biden may not be the best path forward. The worst thing we can do is belittle and ignore the millions of people who have (valid) concerns about Biden. Let's agree to do everything we can to beat trump, regardless of who his Democratic opponent is.
The concerns are valid and we have to hear them to understand them. It is so tempting to tune them out, but we need them in the fray. So the first step is to find what will assuage the misgivings. Until we see the objections first hand, Joe Biden will not know how to gain their full trust.
None of us supporting Biden are belittling anyone. Your concerns are valid. What my message is to you and to everyone here is it is bigger than that! We are not telling you to shut up, it’s just not the message that wins us the election. I’m sorry, I know that is now what you believe or want to believe, but I know in my heart the message has to be about SAVING DEMOCRACY and THWARTING THE THREAT PROJECT 2025 POSES FOR OUR COUNTRY.
The threat is real. Thanks for your insights. I just wonder how we go here.
I go one day at a time. One message at a time. One comment at a time. Steady like Joe. And time passes. And we build trust and confidence in the best President of my lifetime.
Excellent! ICAM
Robin I suggest you join some postcard/letter writing or other Dem zoom calls to expand who you are talking to (I’ve been on many and heard plenty of support for Biden); in addition, letter writing/phone banking for House races allows you to advocate for Democrats even if you question the top of the ticket.
Go to Mobilize.us.
Nothing relieves anxiety more than taking action!
I'm paralyzed right now. I am hoping that will change..
A favorite teacher gave me the greatest de-paralyzer ever. Take a minute. Ask yourself, “What do I know?” Even knowing where you are standing or what you’re holding in your hand… and realizing/acknowledging that “thing you know,” unfreezes you to do the next thing. Like write one postcard. And then another.
I hope it helps you. (We’re all fighting our way through this… one moment at a time.)
Now, go have an iced coffee or something. 💙
Please, have a look at Robert Hubbell’s Concluding Thoughts from last Friday’s Today’s Edition where he refers to “availability heuristic.” I hope it eases your “upset.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/roberthubbell/p/on-being-comfortable-with-uncertainty?r=41p0j&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
The entire piece is packed with good stuff. 💙
I am also upset. It seems the Democratic party is paralyzed and will not do what they need to do and replace Biden. Of course everybody on this forum agrees that a Trump presidency would be awful, that Biden has accomplished a lot, etc. But you just have to use your own eyes. Biden looks terrible and after Saturday the visual contrast between Biden and Trump is even more glaring, despite how much we wish people would talk about Trump's lunacy and Biden's accomplishments. We are preaching to the choir. Just today, a new NYT poll came out that shows Biden in terrible shape, only 3 points up in Virginia and 3 points down in Pennsylvania. Harris does a lot better. I am hoping Biden and the Democratic party realizes how dire the situation is with Biden as the nominee and how much Biden will be detested if he stays in the race and loses.
Fully agree. The complete lack of urgency around addressing this growing disparity is what has me upset. President Biden waited a week to address his bad debate performance which left people believing he was unfit. Trump refused to leave the stage until he got a photo.
When I hear people say we have to just stay the course I get upset, because the Campaign has not shown the ability to give me even a fig leaf of confidence they can respond once Trump's ads go on air.
The slow rolling of Biden's response has been the most troubling. I understand why he is defensive but I hope he can look at the bigger picture and gracefully bow out. Saying only the Lord Almighty or if he has zero chance is not a credible response. People on this forum appreciate him and wanted him to win -- that is why I came here too. But the important thing is for Trump to lose and that seems more untenable with Biden.
Based on what? The pundits and Clooney stuff? The false bravado and bluster of trump and his campaign staff (as “reported” in The Atlantic)? The polling (even with all of its limitations) doe not indicate that Biden will lose.
Visuals fade over time (months) and you both seem to ignore the responses from President Biden.
Every time we cite polls, let's please acknowledge they're samples of about 1,000 respondents and some aren't even't even likely voters. But since we're talking about polls - polling in April showed Trump ahead in PA. The reality is that on April 23, over 2 million ACTUAL Pennsylvania voters showed up for the primary. Biden got 946K votes (47%), while Trump got 793K votes (39%). Nikki Haley got 158K protest votes and she'd dropped out of the race a month earlier.
Over 14 million of us voted for Biden in our 2024 state primaries knowing he's old but also recognizing he's been one of our most successful presidents in modern times. By contrast, Obama got 8 million votes in the 2012 presidential primaries - so Biden increased the share of votes by 75%. I'd also encourage everyone to watch Biden's energizing rally in Michigan on Friday - his message and delivery were pitch-perfect in going after Trump and in laying out a positive vision for a second Biden-Harris term. At this point he's pretty much tied in the polls; imagine how well he might do if Dems could unite and go on offense against MAGA instead of each other.
As much as we might wish, the media circus won't be an iota kinder to the amazing Kamala Harris if she were the nominee, or any other Democrat - the divisions could increase exponentially. Joe Biden has earned my support and I'm proud to be on Team Biden-Harris and to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.
I think the primaries shows Trump has some real weaknesses in his coalition, but I do not think comparing primary turn out to polls is that great metric. President Biden got more primary votes in Utah than Trump did, but I do not think we should count on Biden carrying Utah. (Biden 59,235 primary votes to Trump's 48,350)
I do not expect the media to be nicer to Kamala Harris than Joe Biden, but I do hope she would be more comfortable being grabbing and pushing a media narrative than President Biden. To his great credit President Biden does not like controversy, and thus shy's away from the media's almost irresistible apatite for it. I do expect that Kamala Harris is better at creating media moments and capitalizing on them.
The raw primary vote count isn’t what’s important - it’s that trump significantly underperformed the polling. These were actual votes compared to poll projections and in almost every state he underperformed by double digits. That is a significant indicator of an issue with modern polling - non-response bias is making polling a guessing game.
538 just shifted MI to “lean D” and gives Biden 276 EV this morning … NV AZ WI PA are all toss ups . Keep working
Where can I look to see this on the 538 web site? I don't know why I can't find it.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Thank you. That's where I was looking, but couldn't find the specific Electoral College counts. ArcticStones helped me find it.
I'm confident that the voters available to us won't be voting on visual contrast in November. Not if we do the work to highlight the important issue differences between Biden-Harris and Trump-whoever. And we should not hesitate to say that democracy is on the line -- and point to specifics, whether it be 1) Project 2025, 2) Trump's own statements about what he intends to do if re-elected, or 3) Trump's lies / attempts to subvert the 2020 election (of which his inaction for 3 hours on January 6th was just one aspect). Finally, we need to remind people about the SCOTUS decision on presidential immunity. I think it will come down to who voters trust and respect more. I think that choice is clear.
Another thought. I rely on Simon to evaluate the validity of polling. I also know that the polls were wrong in 2020 and again in 2022.
I wish the polls were wrong more than anything, but the averages have been bad for Biden and getting worse. It is hard to see how he can turn things around. These are wonderful and compelling arguments for everybody on this forum. But are they going to be enough for the low propensity voter who sees a doddering Biden and a defiant Trump on social media?
That's where we come in. We have to be "information warriors," a term Simon has coined. Can you use your social media network to point out why the visuals are misleading? To state why you believe he is cognitively fit for the job (i.e., how effectively he has governed)? To explain why you think it's important to vote for Biden?
Beyond your own circles, do you have time to volunteer for some GOTV efforts? Whether by texting, calling, post carding, or door-to-door canvassing? It's in part because Dems have such a strong grassroots "machine" that we have been outperforming the polls.
I don't underestimate the impact we can have if we work hard over the next 4 months.
It is not true the polls are getting worse Dave. Last week the polls were better for us.
I appreciate your optimism Simon.
Carolyn, I don't think Dave has understood Simon's analysis of the polling
if I understand correctly
The polls were not wrong in 2020 and 2022
Would appreciate if Simon would comment on this.
As this 538 article shows the average polling miss in each election is 6!!!! points. 6. The polls were very very wrong in 2022. Real Clear Politics final map had Rs winning 54 Senate seats. They won 49.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
The polls were not very wrong in 2022. There is a lot in the article you shared that we could debate over but this is not the right format.
I worked on presidential polling a long time ago, in the eighties, my day job now is not in politics and I don’t have time to dig into the data like you or Tom Bonier do but I do contract YouGov to do market research and I spend a lot of time studying behavioral data.
I also correctly predicted that there would be no red wave in 2022 and did what you did, looked at other the data points besides the polling in the competitive races, there was never any evidence that the GOP would pick up 20-30 seats. I still don’t understand why more political reporters didn’t simply look at the data.
Every Presidential race is different and some are harder to predict than others, 2020 was straightforward, and so was 2012. Most people were not paying attention to the state races in the last month in 2016.
In my opinion, 2024 is difficult to predict. I’ve been relying on people like you Simon this round to give me the deeper analysis because of my job. But from the outside, this race is starting to feel like some of the other races we lost, 2000, 2004, 2016 where the candidates were listening to a small group of advisors who ended up giving them really bad advice.
I don’t need to tell you that we can screw this one up, for my daughter, for your kid(s) we need to really realistic about the path forward. I know that the Democratic Party overall is in good shape, the Dem Senate candidates in AZ, WI, PA give me hope that Biden’s support is underrepresented in those states. But the theory that Biden’s ceiling is still much higher than Trump’s is good but it’s still a theory. It would be helpful for me to understand more how we bring those people home.
The same poll you cited has Kamala down 1 in PA and up 5 in VA. I’m not sure that’s “a lot better” and both results are within the margin of error. All I care about is beating Trump but if we change candidates I’m hoping the polling advantage would be significantly greater than where things stand right now.
It's fair to feel uncertainty. With Biden, it seems that there is little he can do the change the perceptions, his performance is weak even on his best days (I have watched all of his interviews and speeches and it just is not there), and he could easily have other episodes like the debate and the Clooney fundraiser. A fresh face could absolutely explode, but it could also be invigorating for the party.
Yeah, my thought when I read Jen O'Malley Dillon's email last week was they believe they are at or near the floor of Democratic support, and they believe that Trump is at or near his celling. The problem with that is the kind of by their admission is they think they can probably only get it up to 270-281 EC vote.
Do not get me wrong a win is a win but if a saw polling that indicating that another candidate could squeeze 10,000 more votes out of Arizona we should do it. And after the Assignation attempt I think our best hope is things do not move.
Clooney had a clear axe to grind and left the fundraiser well before it was over. He's turned out to be a real shit. Full stop. He isn't going to ever get good vibes back again from the Dem party. Reiner either.
The last thing we need is attacking people who want to see us win in November just because of a disagreement over what Biden should do. As I said above, I have had strong doubts about Biden urging him to step aside as nominee but recently changed my mind. We MUST have an "all hands on deck approach".
Dave, this polling showed PA within margin of error in PA. and slightly ahead in VA. It is important to note that these cries of the polling are terrible for Biden are just not true as of today, Tuesday, July 16th. It may become true, but it isn't true now based on the polling in front of us today. It is a close, competitive election and the ongoing freakout about the polling needs to end. It's red wavy MAGA stuff.
I understand your concern. What you saw with your own eyes was a normal response of someone with a stuttering disability to exhaustion and the firehose of lies being thrown on him. Thank of all the speeches he’s given before and since. Of course he’s old. And he won’t get younger. It’s a concern. But what you saw was not someone who can’t govern, think clearly, and handle complex ideas. He does not have dementia. He has a stutter.
Please watch Allan Lichtman regarding the importance (of lack thereof) of debates and incumbency on the outcome of the election. (Incumbency is key. Not debates).
It’s understandable to be concerned. Everything is riding on this election. But please trust the process.
The Cannon ruling this morning has just put me over the edge for the day. I heard legal expert Chuck Rosenberg say for the DOJ to "move the venue to 'judge shop' would not be a good look." Sorry but too many Dems are still playing polite checkers while the other side has taken a blowtorch to the game board. I in no way condone violence but I am also well aware of how the other side will use the attack in PA to try to silence all criticism and gaslight the public into thinking Dems are the source of hostility and division. I hope Biden and Dems across the country continue to point out MAGA/TFG's 9 years of incitement, including an insurrection, and the dangers to us all as Simon does today. The answer is always the ballot box, and I'm going to send more postcards to do my part - and breathe...
💯 agree.
There may be one silver lining from the Cannon ruling provided the Jack Smith makes the move which I expect. He must both appeal the ruling AND move to have her recused. Cannon's failure to acknowledge clear precedent going back to US v. Nixon makes me feel confident the ruling will be reversed. But it is also necessary to get her removed from the case. If that happens - and Trump loses in November, the case may then go forward. It was not going to happen before then anyway with this judge.
Yes, and DOJ did just announce an appeal. She’s got to go.
Saw that. Very pleased. Wonder whether he'll also concurrently move to recuse. He could wait for a ruling from the Circuit Ct then take the next step to seek recusal.
Fran,
Hubbel and Jay Kuo write ups today were inspiring for us not to back off at all: we need to keep communicating. They are both on Substack. I really appreciated their support to all who want to preserve our democracy. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
I stop whatever I’m doing when I see you have a new post. Thank you for your wise words.
cannon
I feel so much anger inside because the stolen documents case has been thrown out today. I canceled coffee with my sister who is a Trumper because I knew I couldn't keep my feelings in. I know I'm not alone, but this is a real test of any normal person's capacity to act like everything is normal. Thank you for the daily hope you give us!
Hang in there. Eyes on the prize. We'll get through this.
give it some time to see what happens next, I suggest
They’re smart people. They’ll figure it out.
Nothing is normal at this particular time. We need to keep spreading the P-2025 word to those who have not heard about it. It has become a tool with which to fight the extreme right. We can prevail if we stick together and spread the word.
just saw this - Andrew Weissman [reposted from his threads]
What next for MAL case?
Jack Smith could avoid the delay and insanity/inanity of the Supreme Court, and just have the indictment refiled by the US Attorney-- as the flaw per Judge Cannon is that Smith, as a Special Counsel, is too independent of the Department of Justice.
Note: that conclusion by Cannon is the OPPOSITE of what Trump has been claiming: i.e. that Smith is a lackey of the Administration!
I plan to work hard for Dems up and down the ballot with donations, postcard writing and canvassing in Georgia, but I wish we could put to rest "Biden Concerns". My AA friends in GA view the "Biden Concerns" as white privilege issues, not real concerns, and are furious. If something happened to Biden we all know his A+ team and Harris could step in, not unlike what happened to Reagan when he had Alzheimer's. There is no unicorn candidate and to nullify millions of votes is quite frankly undemocratic! We all need to unify, put this issue to rest, and get to work!
Whatever the situation is with Biden, and I love him, we have no control over it. Harris is more than capable. As demoralized as I am this morning, I will not give the MAGAs more talking points or glee from my saying Biden is too old, feeble, etc.
I’m with you Cindy. I listened to Bannon say the plan is make liberals “ so afraid, we’re looking for their fear!” Glad he’s put away for awhile and we’re more determined than ever. There are more of us than them so if we show up we will win! GOTV 🇺🇸🇺🇸
💙
Amen!!! We should never discount the power of Black Americans at the ballot box -- or the power of other people of color, the power of women, the power of those who believe in voting rights, the power of those who want a clean environment, the power of those who believe in democracy and oppose autocracy -- and the power of those who advocate for sensible gun laws, for that matter.
Perhaps Democrats can re-introduce legislation to again ban assault rifles, such as the AR-15. We could call it the *Keeping Trump and America Safe Act*.
I’ve seen more than one Black woman say that the reason party elites are going after Biden is because he was instrumental in getting the first Black person into the White House and he’s going to be the person who gets the second Black person in the presidency as well. I think this effort to push him out is solidifying the Black vote for Biden.
538’s election forecast seems volatile, albeit within a narrow band. It just moved to 52.2 percent likelihood of Biden winning the election, with Trump at 47.4 percent – with 274–264 as the most likely Electoral College result.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
At one point yesterday, Trump’s lead in 538’s polling average dropped further, to a mere 1.2 percent. That didn’t last long, quickly moving back up to 1.9 to 2.0 percent.
IMHO, the election will depend on turnout far more than polling. There are more of us – and if a higher portion of us vote, we win. And that depends on our work!
Not really. Look at the past few elections: Dems have been overperforming and winning like crazy. I don't believe this year will be any different.
They do not always break for Dems; they did not in 2004 and they did not in 2016.
A big problem is RFK, Jr.'s candidacy. Not sure who he takes more votes from.
Thank you for the link to 538. Where exactly would I find the 274-264 Electoral College prediction?
Click the link and scroll down, although the current numbers are 272–266. That page has lots of useful in-depth information. For instance, if you scroll down to the map and hover your cursor over individual states, you can see the forecast for that state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Another page worth looking at is 538’s national polling average.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
OK. Now I see it. It's in the "Forecast over time" section, which wasn't intuitive. I was focusing on two other sections - Electoral College probability and Electoral vs. Popular Vote sections.
By the way, how well do we trust 538? I seem to remember discussion on HC that cast doubt on its accuracy.
I suspect 538 is as good as it gets, unless you happen to have access to non-public polling commissioned by the Democratic Party and its candidates. First, an average of many polls is better than single polls. Second, 538 weighs its polling average in favor of high-quality poll from reliable pollsters. I believe they also try to correct for the known lean of lower-quality pollsters.
SImon refers repeatedly to 538, and its far better than the un-weighted average at RealClearPolling.com, which is right-wing and propagandistic.
Nonetheless, I would take Simon’s admonition to heart: polling and poll averages should be evaluated not alone, but considered together with many other types of data.
Just my two cents.
I remember their predictions that Clinton would win. Allan Lichtman correctly predicted Trump in 2016, despite his dislike for him. For more on his 13 prediction keys, see https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/
Thank you so much for the link. I missed this, but agree with Lichtman.
Lichtman got it right for the wrong reasons; no Comey letter, no trump. I put very little stock in his snake oil and I have not been shy about writing that here or elsewhere.